Pound once again became a hostage of politics

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Currently, investors are closely following the developments in the United Kingdom, trying to guess whether the post of Prime Minister Theresa May will remain.

Against this background, the pair GBP / USD has already slipped below three-week lows.

"We expect the pound to fall in price over the next two weeks. Therefore, we do not advise traders to keep a long position on the British currency in the hope of concluding an agreement on Brexit," said analysts at Nomura Holdings Inc.

"If the struggle for power inside the Conservative Party breaks out, the pound may collapse by another 1-2%," they added.

"We believe that any signs of exacerbating political risks in London may exacerbate concerns about the UK leaving the EU without a deal and thereby drowning a pound. We still hope that the parties will still be able to reach an agreement at the last moment, but now, we are taking an extremely cautious position with regard to the British currency," the specialists of Credit Agricole Group said.

"The picture that we can observe today in pound sterling, taking into account, its recent fall below $ 1.30, indicates that the course partially threatens the resignation of the British Prime Minister," experts of Mizuho Bank believe.

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In the next six months, the weakening of the yuan is possible - Goldman Sachs

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According to the forecast of the largest bank Goldman Sachs, in the next six months, we should expect a weakening of the Chinese national currency.

The ministry believes that the yuan will exceed the psychological mark of 7 yuan for 1 US dollar and reach the bar of 7.1 yuan. The expert believes that such a situation is hardly possible at the end of this year. It is more likely that the weakening of the Chinese national currency will occur in the first half of 2019, Timothy Mo believes.

Earlier, in respect of the Middle Kingdom, there were accusations of currency manipulation. A similar opinion was shared by the administration of Donald Trump. However, the expert is confident that the Chinese authorities do not want such accusations against them, especially on the eve of the meeting between the US President and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit.

Chinese leaders have been repeatedly criticized for weakening the yuan. However, experts emphasize that the authorities worked hard to maintain the national currency, which is close to 7 yuan per US dollar. At the same time, Beijing is trying to restrain the outflow of capital, which has intensified with the weakening of the yuan. According to experts, the "weak" national currency provides support to Chinese exporters in connection with the trade conflict between the United States and China.

Earlier, it was reported that in early October of this year, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned the Chinese authorities against the devaluation of the yuan. He proposed to conduct negotiations on this issue.

Recall that since the beginning of 2018, the yuan has fallen in price by 6% against the US currency, reaching a figure of 6.94 yuan for 1 US dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Eurozone business activity index in October was worse than forecast

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The composite index of business activity in the industry and the service sector (PMI) of the 19 eurozone countries in October fell to the level of 52.7 points (a 25-month low). The index for the previous month was marked at the level of 54.1 points. On average, analysts predicted a decline only to 53.9 points. Despite the decline, the figure still remains above the level of 50 points, which separates the expansion from the reduction.

Experts note that the main reasons for the slowdown in business growth in the euro area countries are the intensification of the trade war between the United States and China, the controversial and ultimately rejected Italian budget, and the risks of deteriorating financial conditions for enterprises.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: plan for the American session on October 24. There is no good news about Brexit.

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

The pound continues to fall along the trend amid the lack of good news related to Brexit. At the moment, it is best to return to long positions after breaking through and fixing above the resistance level of 1.2930, which may provoke an upward correction in the area of daily highs to the area of 1.2978, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the event of a further decrease in the pound, you can buy on the rebound from the new monthly minimum in the area of 1.2872.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

The bears completed the installation in the first half of the day and broke through the support level of 1.2970, which kept the pound from a new wave of decline. At the moment, while trading is conducted below 1.2930, the pressure on GBP / USD will continue, which will lead to a test of the new monthly minimum around 1.2872, where I recommend fixing the profits. An unsuccessful attempt to get above 1.2930 will also be a signal to sell the pound. Otherwise, short positions can be opened for a rebound from the resistance of 1.2978.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted under the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates the formation of a downtrend on the pound.

Bollinger bands

The lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator is broken, which indicates a bear market. In the case of an upward correction to sales, you can return with a test of the middle line of the indicator.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: plan for the American session on October 24. The next fall of the euro led to the renewal of monthly lows

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The buyers failed to keep the market above fairly significant support levels, which led to a new wave of decline in the euro. At the moment, the level is supported by 1.1397, but the repeated test will again lead to a decrease in EUR / USD. In this scenario, the long positions are best to return to the rebound from a minimum of 1.1351. The main task of buyers for the second half of the day will be fixing above the resistance level of 1.1430, which will lead to a larger upward correction in the area of 1.1474, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The downtrend persists. While the trade is under resistance at 1.1430, the pressure on the euro will be present, and the repeated test of support for 1.1397 may lead to a new wave of sales of EUR / USD with the renewal of lows around 1.1351, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above the resistance level of 1.1430 in the second half of the day, it is best to return to short positions in euro to rebound from morning resistance of 1.1474.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted under the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates the formation of a downward trend in the euro.

Bollinger bands

The lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator is broken, which indicates the bearish nature of the market. In the case of an upward correction, you can sell the euro on a rebound from the middle border of the indicator, which is currently in the region of 1.1455.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

ECB meeting: the fate of the euro in the hands of Draghi?

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The currency traders will carefully study Mario Draghi's comments on Rome and inflation in the region at an ECB meeting on Thursday. The topic of Italy, the euro perceives very painful. Draghi can relieve his condition if he presents a constructive assessment of inflation in the eurozone. The hawkish signals should support the euro. Thus, the strap for surprise, which is able to move the market, is high.

Recall that in September, the head of the ECB helped the euro to soar to a 3-month peak after it called inflation pressure "relatively strong". However, since then, the single currency has lost growth due to the drama played out with the Italian budget.

The European regulator spelled out his plan for avoiding ultra-soft monetary policy in detail. Now, market participants are focused on how the Central Bank can reinvest revenues from bonds redeemed by issuers.

Completion of the purchase of new assets is expected by the end of the year, but officials may lengthen the period during which the Central Bank must reinvest its debt redemption income. There may be adjustments in the list of countries where the process of reinvestment of incomes is planned, or changes in the duration of securities in the portfolio. Italian bonds are likely to suffer the most, given that they were among the largest beneficiaries.

"We doubt that the Italian drama will undermine the ECB's plans to normalize the policy, as there are not enough signs that it hurts the rest of the eurozone," analysts at Credit Agricole SA, recommending long positions in the euro against the dollar, comment on the situation.

Nevertheless, the Italian theme should not be written off. Although Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte called the euro the currency of his children and grandchildren, it still means nothing. He also said that there was no reserve plan for the budget. In other words, Rome will continue to defend its opinion on the budget in the EU with a surplus of 2.4% of GDP.

The members of the European Commission did not accept this draft, pointing to a gross and insolent violation of the rules on government spending. The Italian government was asked to develop a new document within three weeks, otherwise, Brussels will have to apply sanctions.

Meanwhile, EUR / USD is not the first time coming to a critical level of 1.143 - 1.145. If there is a breakthrough in this area, the euro can stone to the bottom.

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As for the dollar, its medium-term outlook looks moderately pessimistic. On the short-term horizon, it has practically no worthy competitors.

On Friday, the US Department of Commerce will release a release on GDP growth in the third quarter. According to experts, in July-September, the US economy expanded by 3.4% in terms of annual rates after an increase of 4.2% in the previous three months.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Commerzbank revealed the reasons for the rise in gold prices

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According to a study by analysts of the largest German financial institution Commerzbank, this year, the yellow metal has fallen in price by almost 5%. However, at the moment, they are fixing a number of signs in the financial markets indicating a trend change in the gold market.

In the course of growing political and economic crises, investors are looking for safe assets to preserve their capital. One of the assets, "shelters" was gold, the price of which rose over the last month immediately by 2%. An important reason for the rising cost of precious metals, experts called the weakening of the US currency. Sinking of the US dollar has become the main supporting factor for gold. The dollar index, which shows the ratio of US currency to the six major currencies of the world, has fallen by 0.8% since the beginning of this month.

According to Commerzbank forecasts, the rate of the American currency will continue to decline next year. Analysts see the reason that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is ready to curtail the previous policy of raising rates, and the European Central Bank (ECB) intends to tighten monetary policy.

Another reason for the rise in price of gold, experts believe, is the growing interest of American investors in shares of ETF-funds, which are provided with physical precious metals. This factor provides significant support to the price of gold, as the funds acquire the yellow metal to provide them with their securities.

Investors do not disregard such major world events as the budget crisis in Italy, the US trade war with other countries, as well as the question about Brexit. They note the slowdown of the global economy as a whole, and this is cause for alarm by market participants. These factors make you think about protecting your capital. In this regard, many investors and traders shift their investments from shares in gold, believing that the yellow metal will help to wait out unstable times.

In the current situation, it is difficult for analysts to make long-term forecasts. Commerzbank believes that the price of gold has broken the bottom, however, taking into account the fundamental factors, the cost of the precious metal has an impressive growth potential. According to experts, by the end of this year, 1 ounce of gold will cost $ 1,300, and in 2019, the cost of the yellow metal may increase to $ 1,500.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The cost of oil rises after falling by 4%

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On Wednesday, October 24, black gold rises in price, recovering after falling 4% a day earlier. According to experts, the price increase is due to a possible increase in the supply of raw materials from Saudi Arabia.

Analysts have fixed the correction in the oil market after the reduction of raw materials by 4-4.3%. They explain this decline with comments from Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih. Recall, a Saudi official said that he does not exclude an increase in oil production in the country to 11-12 million barrels per day. Experts believe that this will help fill up the volume of Iranian oil, leaving the world market in connection with the introduction of US sanctions.

According to experts of the American bank Morgan Stanley, they are confident in the rise in prices for black gold. According to analysts, by the end of this year, the cost of Brent crude oil will reach $ 85. This will be facilitated by United States sanctions against Iran, which will lead to a reduction in exports of raw materials from the Islamic Republic.

The cost of futures for North Sea petroleum mix Brent for December delivery rose 0.37% to $ 76.72 a barrel. The price of December futures for light crude oil of mark WTI increased by 0.21%, to $ 66.57 per barrel.

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EUR / USD. October 24th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". News calm and save the downtrend

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -66.6325

The EUR / USD instrument on Wednesday, October 24, resumed its downward movement after a minimal correction, in which the pair could not even work out a moving average line. The Heikin Ashi indicator has turned down, which signals the completion of the correction. Important macroeconomic events in the world yesterday were not recorded. Thus, the rather low volatility of the instrument fully reflects the fundamental picture of the last days. Today will be the third in a row in a series of days absolutely empty in terms of macroeconomic events. The news calendar contains only preliminary values of the index of business activity in the fields of services and production of Markit. It is unlikely that traders will at least somehow react to these reports. In the United States, Bullard and Bostic representatives are scheduled for the evening, however, these events may cause market participants to react with minimal probability. New posts on the topic Brexit in the last 24 hours have also been reported. Thus, the downward trend in the instrument remains, and the main factor for determining the intraday trend remains technical.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,1414

S2 - 1.1353

S3 - 1,1292

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1475

R2 - 1.1536

R3 - 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Based on this, it is now recommended to remain in short positions (or open new ones, since Heikin Ashi has just turned down) with a target of 1.1414. A reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator to the top will indicate a new round of upward correction.

Buy positions are recommended to be considered no earlier than fixing the price above the moving with the target of 1.1536. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to ascending, but this will require signals, which we are unlikely to receive today.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan 10/24/2018

Trading Plan 10/24/2018

The overall picture: The market is preparing the autumn trend.

The euro is under pressure on the euro. The EU over the Italian budget deficit and the Italian populist government violates EU rules limiting the maximum budget deficit. The EU, contrary to expectations, expressed tough disagreement with the Italian deficit.

The second plot is the continuation of disputes within the British authorities under the agreement of Britain - EU - market. However, sluggishly reacts to this situation.

The third plot is the strong jumps in the US stock market. On Tuesday, the US market showed a new sharp drop at the opening. However, the close was with strong growth. Perhaps, the autumn correction was completed.

In the foreign exchange market, we see continuation of consolidation in the ranges. But it is very likely that a breakout from the ranges and strong movement will take place in the near future. Possible drivers, news on the US economy, the report of the Beige Book Fed today, the report on US GDP for the 3rd quarter on Friday, and the ECB on Thursday.

Pound: We are ready to sell at a break of 1.2920 down.

We are ready to buy at the breakthrough of 1.3260.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The forecast for GBP / USD on October 24, 2018

GBP / USD

On Tuesday, the British pound worked exactly the entire range of 1.2936-1.3042 is defined on a relatively calm news background. At the same time, the situation becomes more complicated. On the scale of the daily chart, the price is between the balance lines and Kruzenshtern with a declining marlin oscillator. On a four-hour scale, the price is under both indicator lines, but Marlin does not visually want to infiltrate the growth zone, thus forming double convergence.

In general, the technical situation has become clearer, but it has not changed. In the case of a price above 1.3042, a slight increase is possible to the Kruzenshtern line resistance on the four-hour chart 1.3048. In the case of overcoming the support level at 1.2936, we expect a further decline to support the trend line of the price channel at 1.2844.

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Today, Markit's PMIs will be released in the US in October. A decrease from 55.6 to 55.4 is expected in the manufacturing sector, and an increase from 53.5 to 54.1 in the services sector. Sales of new homes in September are expected with a slight decrease of 627 thousand versus 629 thousand in August. Taking into account that yesterday's growth in the US stock market was aimed at bridging the decline of the Asian session, which remained unobstructed. Today, the growth may continue. If the data come out at the level of expectations, they will not greatly interfere with the planned growth. With this development, counterdollar currencies will have little chance of growth.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The forecast for AUD / USD on October 24, 2018

AUD / USD

Yesterday, the Australian dollar at the moment fell by 26 points, but closed the day with a slight plus and today in the Asian session, it is growing by 15 points, which is somewhat strange after yesterday's oil collapse by more than 4%. But, on the other hand, the market for iron ore and non-ferrous metals is growing, which indirectly indicates a steady demand from the industry and, accordingly, gives hope for the recovery of stock markets. From this point of view, the "Australian" can still grow a little, until the American dollar, together with the stock market, starts a more noticeable strengthening.

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Formally, the AUD / USD growth may last until the resistance of the Kruzenshtern trend line at 0.7150 on the daily chart. But this can be hindered by the internal bearish forces of the market, shown by the Marlin oscillator, which are still in the zone of decreasing trend both on the daily chart and on the four-hour chart. Turning the indicator down can occur from the zero line on both scales simultaneously, which will amplify the signal.

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As a result, we do not expect any strong correction of the "Australian". We are waiting for the departure of the price under the signal level of 0.7078, on which the trend line of the daily timeframe and the Kruzenshtern line on H4 are located, after which the decline to support the next embedded price channel line by 0.7022 is likely.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for October 24, 2018

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On September 13, the depicted daily downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090 failed to offer enough bearish pressure on the pair. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout so far.

On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish within the depicted H4 bearish channel to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

On October 4, the price level of 1.2900-1.2940 (the backside of the broken uptrend) initiated another bullish movement above 1.3010 and 1.3100 (61.8% Fibo level) which led to recent bullish movement towards 1.3200 where the current bearish movement towards 1.2900 was initiated.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.3000 (50% Fibo level) enhanced further bearish decline towards 1.2900 where bullish recovery should be anticipated again.

As for the bullish breakout scenario to remain valid, bullish persistence above 1.3010 (50% Fibo level) and 1.3100 (61.8% Fibo level) is needed to maintain sufficient bullish momentum initially towards 1.3200 and 1.3280.

Otherwise, the next bearish destination is located around 1.2800 if enough bearish momentum is demonstrated.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 24, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On September 10, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750). However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, evident bearish momentum was being demonstrated on the daily chart.

On October 10, recent bearish decline below 1.1520 found its way towards the price level of 1.1420.

However, Temporary bullish recovery around 1.1430 pushed the EUR/USD pair above 1.1520 until bearish breakdown of 1.1520 occurred again on October 17.

Hence, a descending high was established around 1.1600 enhancing the bearish side of the market.

As for the bearish side of the market to remain dominant, the EUR/USD pair should pursue trading below the price level of 1.1400.

Next demand level would be located around 1.1275 and possibly 1.1100 if enough bearish pressure is demonstrated.

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Time of hopes and illusions for the EUR/USD pair

The foreign exchange market is experiencing times of hope and illusions, which, as a rule, do not justify themselves. This explains the spasmodic behavior of the EUR/USD pair and other currency pairs. The US-Chinese conflict has been smoldering for six months, Brexit has been negotiating for more than two years, and the issue of the Italian budget has been discussed for the second month already. Negotiation processes are accompanied by rumors and all sorts of comments that affect the mood of traders and the dynamics of trading accordingly. Therefore, any more or less large-scale price movement is primarily due to the news of the external fundamental background, while macroeconomic releases can only strengthen (or weaken) the influence of the main factor.

Today, the black band has arrived for the euro as the euro-dollar pair collapsed which is explained not only by the aggravation of the Italian crisis but also by negative macroeconomic statistics. Although yesterday morning, optimism prevailed after a published article in an Italian newspaper. According to journalists, Rome is ready to compromise if the Italian budget issue affects the markets "too negatively." As it turned out, optimism was premature. The official position of the Italians remains unchanged, in fact, like the position of Brussels.

Today, the Vice-Premier of Italy announced that his country would not continue the policy of the previous government - if Rome followed all the recommendations of the European Union, then economic growth would be minimal. At the same time, he rather condescendingly reacted to the letter of the European Commission (demanding to revise the budget deficit), making it clear that the Italians would not back down from the adopted document.

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It is difficult to say whether the Italian Deputy Prime Minister voiced real intentions or is it just a political bluff designed for a potential electorate. But in any case, traders reacted negatively to such a plot twist. Just yesterday, the market was discussing scenarios for possible compromise solutions, but today, they have been showered with a "cold shower". Although Rome has three more weeks to think about this issue, it is obvious that the negotiation process will be difficult. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has already managed to report that they have no backup plan and the deficit of 2.4% is a final and non-negotiable option.

In my opinion, these words should also be treated with skepticism, since such statements may be political in nature. But in the context of the currency and stock markets, the words of Conte have had an effect as the value of Italian bonds has once again decreased, and the yield of securities has increased again. The spread between the yields of 10-year Italian bonds and similar German bonds reached a five-year high, putting pressure on the Italian banking sector.

Although the negotiation process continues, in particular, tomorrow the French finance minister meets with his Italian counterpart, the market clearly became discouraged. The pair approached the base of the 14th figure, that is, the support level at the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. The southern impulse was also caused by a block of macroeconomic statistics, which was released in the red zone. We are talking about PMI indices in the manufacturing sector of key European countries such as Germany, France, and Italy. The indicators were much worse than expected.

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In particular, the preliminary assessment of Germany's manufacturing PMI for October fell to 29-month lows, reaching 52.3 points. The Italian index also updated the annual minimum, while the eurozone PMI fell to 26-month lows. All this suggests that the eurozone economy can also demonstrate a slowdown, affecting the determination of the members of the ECB.

Such a fundamental background allowed the EUR/USD bears to break through the important support level of 1.1460, which in turn allowed the price to drop to the bottom of the 14th figure. If the US session will provide additional support for the dollar, for example, due to the hawkish rhetoric of Fed representatives Loretta Mester and Raphael Bostic, the bears of the pair can gain a foothold within the 13th figure. In this case, the main goal of the southern movement will be the 1.1305 mark, which is the price minimum of this year.

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Experiences of traders are justified because such weak data was published on the eve of the next meeting of the ECB, which will be held tomorrow. Given the gloomy fundamental background, one can hardly expect "hawkish" notes from the members of the regulator regarding the prospects of monetary policy. Regular market hopes for a tightening of the ECB's position will, apparently, remain unrealizable illusions at least in the near future. If fears of traders are confirmed, this will allow reaching the annual minimums of EUR/USD pair for this week already.

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Review of the foreign exchange market on 10.24.2018

Yesterday, the day began with a fairly vigorous growth for the pound and the single European currency, although no serious data came out. Despite the growth rate of producer prices in Germany accelerated from 3.1% to 3.2%, and, of course, it gives hope for further inflation in Europe, this is not enough for a significant weakening of the dollar. The answer again lies in Brexit, since representatives of the European Union declared that they were ready to make a number of concessions regarding the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Thus, this would offer the UK a more compromise version of the agreement. Of course, this pleased investors but it is still unclear whether this option suits the parliamentary majority. It seems that already firmly aimed at sabotaging Theresa May's efforts to discredit her and earn political points. Moreover, rumors about the imminent resignation of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and as soon as such information began to arrive, the dollar immediately began to regain the losses of the first half of the day. Also, do not forget about the problem of public debts in the euro area, as the Italian Prime Minister said that he would consider all the recommendations and observations of the European Union regarding the budget deficit, but there will be nothing to revise.

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Today we are waiting for a much richer day in terms of statistics. In particular, the preliminary data on business activity indices in the USA are published and if the production index reduces from 55.6 to 55.5, the index in the services sector can grow from 53.5 to 54.0. Given the much greater weight of the service sector index, the composite index is likely to grow from 53.9 to 54.3 but not without negative, as sales of new homes can be reduced by 1.4%. So the American statistics with its multi-direction is unlikely to have a decisive influence.

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In Europe, the preliminary data on business activity indices also come out, and the expectations here are not so optimistic since a continuous decline is predicted. In particular, the business activity index in the services sector should decrease from 54.7 to 54.5, and the production index from 53.2 to 53.0. As a result, the composite index should reduce from 54.1 to 53.9. True, optimism inspired data from France, which turned out to be better than expected. In fact, the business activity index in the manufacturing sector fell from 52.5 to 51.2 but in the services sector, it rose from 54.8 to 55.6 which led to an increase in the composite index from 54.0 to 54.3. However, the data from Germany was very disappointing, and there is a risk that the pan-European data will be worse than expected. Thus, the business activity index in the services sector decreased from 55.9 to 53.6, and production adjusted from 53.7 to 52.3. So the composite index of business activity fell from 55.0 to 52.7. It is also expected to accelerate the growth rate of consumer lending in the euro area from 3.1% to 3.2%. Hence, against the background of such weak data, it is worth waiting for the decline of the single European currency to 1.1400.

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No data comes out In the UK, thereby, the pound will follow the single European currency, as well as be sensitive to the latest rumors about Brexit. Although in recent days, too much has been said on this topic, British politicians have shown that they do not know how to sit quietly, especially when it comes to ousting the current prime minister and the ensuing fuss over warm places. Thus, it is worth waiting for the pound to decline 1.2900.

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GBP/USD pair: Trading system of "Regression Channels" on October 24. There is no news and there are no reasons for the growth

4 hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - up.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -84.5302

The GBP / USD currency pair rebounded from Murray's "4/8" level and corrected to the moving average line, which failed again to reached it. At the moment, the downward movement resumed, which was highly expected since there are still no fundamental prerequisites for a change of trend. There is no new data on the Brexit negotiations and there is no noteworthy data from the British Parliament has been reported either. The issue with the Northern Ireland border remains open. The question of a possible extension of the transition period remains open. The position of Theresa May is becoming more precarious every day. In general, there are still no clarifications on key issues. In such a situation, it is difficult to count on more or less serious strengthening of the British currency, thus, the downward trend of the pair continues. o date, there is no major macroeconomic publications have been scheduled in the UK. In the US, the so-called "Beige Book" will be published in the evening, but it rarely causes any reaction of traders. Thus, for the GBP / USD pair, the key factor in determining the current trend remains technical. The trading system of "Regression Channels" clearly indicates a continuation of the downward movement and one of the linear regression channels may turn down in the near future.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2939

S2 - 1.2878

S3 - 1.2817

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3000

R2 - 1.3062

R3 - 1.3123

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair resumed its downward movement after a slight correction. Thus, now short positions are again relevant with the goal of 1.2939, which was already been achieved. The Heiken Ashi turn up will point to a new round of corrective movement.

Buy orders will become relevant only after the bulls are fixed above the moving average line. However, there are no significant prerequisites for increasing the demand for the British pound - neither technical nor fundamental.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their releaseIt should be noted.

Explanations for illustrations:

The higher linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI is a blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Forecast for EUR / USD pair for October 24, 2018

EUR / USD pair

The single European currency with an amplitude of 27 points yesterday, closing the session with a symbolic increase of 5 points. The European Commission rejected the budget plan of Italy, demanding a review within three weeks.

Technically, growth was halted by the MACD line on a four-hour scale with the support of the price channel line on the daily timeframe, which was a little punctured. If the price leaves the MACD line, that is if the price manages to do what was not possible yesterday, the growth may continue to the MACD line already on the daily chart to the mark of 1.2526. In case of successfully overcoming the level of 1.1432, the goal opens to 1.1300.

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Indexes of business activity in the United States for October is expected today. Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease from 55.6 to 55.4 while Services PMI is presumed to increase from 53.5 to 54.1. The forecast on sales of new homes is 627 thousand in September compared to 629 thousand in August. Thus, the euro has little opportunity to break up.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for October 24, 2018

analytics5bd0526f21c1a.png

Overview:

The GBP/USD pair dropped sharply from the level of 1.2979 towards 1.2902. Now, the price is set at 1.2913. It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the GBP/USD pair is still moving between 1.2979 and 1.2902 in coming hours. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.2979 and 1.3029, which coincides with the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. From this point, the GBP/USD pair is continuing in a bearish trend from the new resistance of 1.2979. Thereupon, the price spot of 1.2979 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, a possibility that the GBP/USD pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.2979, sell below1.2979 with the first targets at 1.2829 and 1.2759. However, the stop loss should be located above the level of 1.3029.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 24, 2018

analytics5bd05169c231a.png

Overview:

Pivot : 0.9867.

The USD/CHF pair continues to trade upwards from the level of 0.9875. The pair rose from the level of 0.9875 to a top around 0.9865. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9865 followed by 0.9922, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9743 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9875 and 0.9999; so we expect a range of 124 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.9865, we should see the pair climbing towards the second resistance (0.9922) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.9865 with the first target at 0.9922 in order to test the daily resistance 2 and further to 0.9963. Besides, it might be noted that the level of 0.9963 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9875, a further decline to 0.9740 can occur which would indicate a bearish market. However, the Swissy is still calling for strong bullish outlook today.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for October 24. The level of 1.2924 is the key for the pair in the coming days.

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Wave counting analysis:

In the course of trading on October 23, the GBP / USD currency pair added a few dozen points. Thus, small chances that the pair will go to the construction of the proposed wave 3, 5, upward trend segments, remain. However, the breakdown of the minimum of the estimated wave 4 will break the current wave marking and lead to the need to clarify the entire wave pattern. Thus, in the coming days, the situation for the pair should be clarified.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1,3258 - 0.0% according to Fibonacci

1.3300 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2924 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.2832 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD maintains a downward mood, which may lead to the need to clarify the wave counting. So now I still recommend waiting for clarification of the situation. If the break of the 1.2924 mark does not happen, then the working version, which assumes the construction of an upward wave 3, 5, will remain. Then, it will be possible to buy a pair with targets located above the 33 figure. If the attempt to break through the mark of 1.2924 is successful, corrections will be required.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for October 24. No change in wave counting

analytics5bd01ee6328e0.png

Wave counting analysis:

In the course of trading on Tuesday, the EUR / USD currency pair gained just 10 basis points. Thus, the current wave counting has not changed. A further decline in the pair is expected as part of the proposed wave 3, c, with targets located under the 14 figure. Estimated wave 2, c, is completed. There are no grounds for clarifying the current wave pattern. In the past two days, the news background was absent and had no effect on the wave marking.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1327 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

1.1194 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1578 - 61.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair allegedly completed the construction of wave 2, c. Thus, now I recommend to continue selling the pair with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1327, which equates to 127.2% Fibonacci. For greater confidence in the implementation of the working version, involving the construction of a downtrend trend, you can wait for a successful attempt to break the 1.1431 mark, which corresponds to 100.0% Fibonacci.

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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD on October 24. Potential for the pair to fall

4h

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After the formation of a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator, the EUR / USD currency pair completed closing below the correction level of 61.8% - 1.1497. Thus, the process of falling can be continued in the direction of the next correctional level of 76.4% - 1.1424. New emerging divergences are not observed in any indicator. Rebounding the quotations from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow us to count on a turn in favor of the euro currency and a return to the correction level of 61.8%. Fixing the rate of the pair below the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of a further fall in the direction of the next level of correction 100.0% - 1.1303.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553 with a reversal in favor of the American currency. As a result, the drop in quotations can be continued on this chart in the direction of the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Fixing the pair above the Fiboo level of 100.0% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the European currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789 is expected.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair with a target of 1.1558 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 61.8% if the pair closes above the correction level of 1.1497.

Sales of the EUR / USD currency pair can be held with the target of 1.1424 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 61.8%, as the pair completed closing below the correction level of 1.1497 and with the target of 1.1303 if the closing occurs below the level of 76.4%.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for October 24th. We expect the pair to continue falling.

4h

analytics5bd00f6c0047f.png

On the 4-hour chart, the quotes of the GBP / USD currency pair reversed in favor of the British currency and began the process of returning to the correction level of 23.6% - 1.3067. Quoting the quotes on October 24 from the Fibo level of 23.6% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a resumption of decline in the direction of the 0.0% - 1.2662 correction level. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 23.6% will increase the chances for further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 38.2% - 1.3316.

The Fibo grid was built according to extremums of April 17, 2018, and August 15, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair performed a new consolidation under the correctional level of 76.4% - 1,3003 after the formation of a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator. Thus, the fall of the pair can be continued in the direction of the next correctional level of 100.0% - 1.2924. The ripening divergences today are not observed in any indicator. Fixing quotations above the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of the pound sterling and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.3051.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from October 4, 2018, and October 12, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair with a target of 1.3051 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 76.4% if the pair closes above the level of 1.3003 (hourly chart).

You can sell the GBP / USD currency pair now with a target of 1.2924 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 76.4%, as the pair completed closing below the Fibo level of 1.3003 (hourly chart) to form a bearish divergence.

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EUR and GBP: Italy has three weeks to think again. Trump attacks Powell again, and May waits for an offer from the E

Although the European currency yesterday was trading fairly volatile in tandem with the US dollar, the trading instrument failed to get out of the side range.

Italy fights back

The news that the European Commission rejected the Italian budget plan for 2019 did not hurt the European currency much, as it seems that many traders expected this outcome. Now, according to EU rules, Italy has three weeks to prepare a new version of the budget.

If Italy leaves the budget plan unchanged, the conflict between the authorities and the European Commission may reach a critical point by the end of this year, when the European Central Bank will have to decide to terminate the bond purchase program. Such a decision will play a key role in reducing Italy's loan-servicing costs.

The British pound also tried to strengthen against the US dollar, but it all ended in failure. Yesterday, there was news that the EU could make a proposal to Prime Minister Theresa May on the participation of Great Britain in the customs union. The uniqueness of this proposal is that the subject of a separate agreement will be a problem with the Irish border, because of which the parties cannot agree. In other words, the main trade agreement can be concluded without this clause, which will be taken out of the framework and the discussion on which will be further conducted separately.

Despite this, the pound did not continue its upward correction, and by the end of the day, it returned to the area of major support levels.

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US President Donald Trump once again spoke out against the current chairman of the Federal Reserve System and intensified attacks on him. This is stated in an interview with the WSJ. Trump said that every time we do something beautiful, Powell raises interest rates. In his opinion, the Fed represents the greatest risk to the US economy, as interest rates rise too quickly.

The data released yesterday afternoon did not have a strong effect on the quotes of the American dollar.

According to the report, the manufacturing activity index in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond decreased in October. According to the Fed-Richmond, the composite production index fell to 15 points in October against 29 points in September, while economists had expected the index to be 24 points.

The preliminary index of consumer confidence in the eurozone rose slightly in October and amounted to -2.7 points against -2.9 in September of this year.

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The speech of the representative of the Federal Reserve Bostic did not affect the volatility of EUR . USD. Bostic said that the Fed will continue to gradually increase interest rates, as the economy is strong, but the risks are biased towards growth. In his opinion, the Fed's policy still has a stimulating effect on the economy, but the committee is separated from the level of neutral interest rates by only a few increases.

As for the technical picture of EUR / USD, it is quite possible that in the next few days the volatility will remain low before the meeting of the European Central Bank, where rates are likely to remain unchanged, as is the policy for the bond purchase program.

In the event of a decline in the euro, support will be provided by the lower limit in the region of 1.1450, while a large resistance level is seen at the maximum in the region of 1.1495.

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Dollar preparing for a reversal

At the beginning of the year, the growth of the dollar was supported by four important factors: the steady growth of inflation, economic growth, the Fed's monetary policy, and the geopolitical activity of the Trump cabinet. By the end of the year, some of these drivers have noticeably weakened, which makes it possible to predict the approaching trend reversal. Consider them in more detail.

Inflationary expectations (the yield on 5-year TIPS bonds) peaked in May 2018, after which there was a noticeable decline. The business does not see prospects for consumer price growth, in part, it is connected with the strengthening of the dollar index, and partly with doubts about the sustainability of high consumer demand.

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At the same time, inflation in the eurozone is rising, and even some decline in the last two months as a whole does not cancel this trend. The spread between inflation rates in the US and the eurozone is decreasing, which supports the euro.

The second factor is economic growth. At the beginning of the year, ISM indices showed perennial highs. There was even some euphoria associated with the introduction of tax reform, while indicators of activity in the eurozone, such as ZEW, Ifo, PMI Markit and others, showed the exact opposite trend. By the end of the year, trends in both regions began to converge. ISM indices slowed growth, while in the eurozone they again began to show signs of recovery.

As for monetary policy, there are quite important changes. The Fed seeks to raise the rate to a neutral level of 3%, and if a year ago the markets were confident that the rate would rise further, only more slowly, then now there is no such certainty. In the eurozone, the expectations at the beginning of the growth cycle of the rate remain almost unchanged. The first rise is expected in the summer of 2019, which ultimately leads to a decrease in the effect of this factor in favor of the dollar.

There is one more important moment. The US Treasury keeps its deposits in the regional offices of the Fed and in their branches, and by March 2019, when the national debt ceiling is exhausted, it will most likely be forced to use its accounts in the Fed, which may mean an additional 350-400 billion dollars in the banking sector. At the same time, the ECB is reducing its asset purchase program, which leads to a reduction in liquidity. Thus, by the end of the year, two counter-processes are possible, a decrease in liquidity on the part of the ECB and the provision of additional liquidity on the part of the Treasury, which will be another negative factor against the dollar.

The fourth factor is geopolitics and trade wars. Since spring 2018, it has provided strong support for the dollar, but recent events show that this factor may also lose its relevance. The United States achieved local success in the confrontation with Canada and Mexico, forcing them to conclude a new trade agreement instead of NAFTA. However, it was not possible to get such an effect with the EU, and with China, and is unlikely to succeed.

In late November, the G20 summit will take place in Buenos Aires, where, as expected, an attempt will be made to find a way out of the policy of trade wars. If this happens, the result will have a cooling effect on the bulls on the dollar and will serve as another driver for its correction.

Thus, most drivers who have pushed the dollar up throughout the year will lose their importance in the coming months. With a high probability, this will lead to a reversal of the trend for the dollar.

EUR / USD

The euro is consolidating before the ECB meeting on Thursday, the expectations are neutral, there is no significant driver in favor of growth or decline. Today, Markit reports on business activity in the US and the Eurozone will be published, they can add volatility. Support of 1.1432, resistance of 1.1495.

GBP / USD

Pound under pressure, support of 1.2919, consolidation attempt will not last long.

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Bitcoin analysis for October 24, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found that BTC is still trading inside of the tranding range between the price of $6.456 (resistance) and the price of $6.319 (support). My advice is to watch for a breakout of support or resistance to confirm a further direction. If you see a breakout of resistance, watch for an upward target at $6.710. Alternatively, if you see a breakout of support, watch for a downward target at $6.162.

Support/Resistance

$6.710 – Bullish objective target

$6.162 – Bearish objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of Gold for October 24, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,230.00. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I have found the potential end of the downward correction (regular flat), which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found that re-test of the support ($1,228.90) after the breakout, which is another sign of the strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $1,267.00.

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EUR/USD analysis for October 24, 2018

analytics5bd04202a4e94.png

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1406. According to the H4 time – frame, I found the confirmed breakout of the head and shoulders pattern in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control and that buying looks risky. I also found successful re-test of the neckline, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to consider selling opportunities. The projected target is set at the price of 1.1305.

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GBP / USD: plan for the European session on October 24. Speech by Mark Carney did not change the market

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Yesterday, the pound buyers managed only to form the upper limit of the downward channel. Today, it is best to rely on long positions after the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2970. However, the main task of buyers will be a breakthrough in the resistance level of 1.3029, above which opens up to new highs in the area of 1.3101, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a further decline of the pound under the level of 1.2970, it is best to return to long positions from the minimum of 1.2921 or to the rebound from the new support of 1.2872.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Bears will try to seize the moment and break through the support level of 1.2970, which will lead to a new wave of sales of GBP / USD with access to the lows of 1.2921 and 1.2872, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a pound growth in the first half of the day, short positions can be returned to the rebound from the resistance of 1.3029 or even higher, from the larger high of 1.3101.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade has moved one level with the average moving, which indicates the further formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The upside potential is limited by the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3013. A break of the lower border around 1.2961 will be a signal to open short positions in a pound.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Fractal analysis for Gold, Silver, and Oil on October 24

Analytical review on Gold, Silver, and Oil

According to Silver, the price has established a local structure for the development of the upward movement of October 23. According to Gold, the subsequent targets for the top were determined from the local ascending structure on October 22 and the level of 1223.90 is the key support. According to Oil, we follow the local downward cycle from October 16 and from the range of 65.90 - 65.15, we expect a reversal upwards.

Forecast for October 24:

H1-scale analytical review:

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According to Silver, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 15.13, 14.98, 14.88, 14.73, 14.58, 14.49, 14.43 and 14.34. Here, the price has issued a local structure for the upward movement of October 23. The continuation of the movement upward is expected after the breakdown of 14.73. In this case, the target is 14.88 and the breakdown of which will allow us to count on the movement towards 14.98, consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 15.13, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 14.58 - 14.49 and the range of 14.49 - 14.43 is the key support for the top. Its price will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the goal is 14.34.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of October 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 14.74 Take profit: 14.87

Buy: 14.89 Take profit: 14.97

Sell: 14.42 Take profit: 14.36

Sell: 14.34 Take profit: 14.22

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According to Gold, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 1259.12, 1253.90, 1246.16, 1240.55, 1227.59, 1223.91, 1218.88 and 1210.18. Here, the next goals for the top are determined from the local structure on October 22. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1240.55 - 1246.16 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1253.90. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1259.12, upon reaching which we expect consolidation.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1227.59 - 1223.91 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first target is 1218.88. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1210.18.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of October 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1240.55 Take profit: 1246.00

Buy: 1246.50 Take profit: 1253.50

Sell: 1223.50 Take profit: 1219.00

Sell: 1218.50 Take profit: 1210.50

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According to #Cl, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 68.60, 67.48, 66.79, 65.90, 65.15 and 63.84. Here, we determined the subsequent targets for the bottom from the local downward cycle on October 16. We expect a short-term downward movement in the range of 65.90 - 65.15, hence a high probability of a reversal upwards. The breakdown of the level of 65.15 will make it possible to count on the movement towards a potential target of 63.84.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 66.79 - 67.48 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 68.60.

The main trend is the local downward cycle of October 16.

The tool serves to determine the key trend. Its confirmation or cancellation by GOLD. Often has the opposite correlation with GOLD.

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EUR / USD: plan for the European session on October 24. Bears try to keep the trend

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

As long as the trade is conducted above the level of 1.1449, the demand for the euro will continue. However, the main task is to break down and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1485, which was not possible to do yesterday throughout the day. Only after that can we expect a larger upward trend with a test of new highs in the region of 1.1516 and 1.1548, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the event of a decline in the euro under the support level of 1.1449 in the first half of the day, it is best to return to long positions to rebound from a new minimum of 1.1423.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Sellers still need to keep the pair below the resistance level of 1.1485, and the formation of a false breakout on it will be an additional signal to open short positions in the euro in order to update the new weekly lows around 1.1423 and 1.1397, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above 1.1485 and going beyond the limits of the side channel, it is best to return to short positions in EUR / USD on a rebound from the resistance of 1.1516.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade has moved one level with the average moving, which indicates the further formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1485 may limit the upward potential. A retest of the lower limit around 1.1455 will be a direct signal to sell the euro.

analytics5bd000571b9a8.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on October 24

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we expect further downward movement after passing by the price of the range of 1.1448 - 1.1428. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar we continue to follow the downward cycle of October 12 and the development of this structure is expected after the breakdown of 1.2945. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price forms an upward structure of October 15 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 0.9975. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the price is in deep correction and the level of 112.09 is the key support for the top. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price canceled the formation of the ascending structure and currently, we are following the downward trend from October 22. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we expect further downward movement after the breakdown of 145.65 and the level of 146.80 is the key support.

Forecast for October 24:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1547, 1.1516, 1.1494, 1.1474, 1.1448, 1.1428, 1.1380 and 1.1346. Here, we clarified the goals for the downward structure of October 16. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.1448 - 1.1428. In this case, the target is 1.1380. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1346, upon reaching this value we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1474 - 1.1494 and the breakdown of the latter will lead to the development of a protracted correction. Here, the target is 1.1516 and this level is the key support for the bottom. Its price passage will have to form an upward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.1547.

The main trend is the downward structure of October 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1474 Take profit: 1.1492

Buy 1.1495 Take profit: 1.1514

Sell: 1.1426 Take profit: 1.1384

Sell: 1.1379 Take profit: 1.1348

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3120, 1.3096, 1.3043, 1.3004, 1.2945, 1.2896 and 1.2830. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of October 12. At the moment, the price is in the correction. We expect the downward movement to continue after the breakdown of 1.2945. In this case, the target is 1.2896 and consolidation is near this value. Hence, the likelihood of an upward correction development is also high. A potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2830, after reaching which we expect a departure to a correction.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 1.3004 - 1.3043 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3096 and the range of 1.3096 - 1.3120 is the key support for the downward structure. We expect clearance of the expressed initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of October 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3004 Take profit: 1.3040

Buy: 1.3047 Take profit: 1.3094

Sell: 1.2943 Take profit: 1.2898

Sell: 1.2892 Take profit: 1.2834

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0030, 1.0007, 0.9975, 0.9960, 0.9934, 0.9918 and 0.9893. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of October 15. The price passage of the range of 0.9960 - 0.9975 will begin the development of an upward trend. In this case, the goal is 1.0007. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0030, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9934 - 0.9918 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9893 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9977 Take profit: 1.0005

Buy: 1.0009 Take profit: 1.0030

Sell: 0.9934 Take profit: 0.9920

Sell: 0.9916 Take profit: 0.9895

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 113.53, 113.23, 113.03, 112.90, 112.69, 112.40 and 112.09. Here, we are following the rising structure of October 15. At the moment, the price is in deep correction. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 112.69. In this case, the first target is 112.90. Passing the price range of 112.90 - 113.03, will lead to movement to the level of 113.23, near this level is the consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 113.53, after reaching which we expect a departure to the correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 112.40 - 112.09 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the potential target is 111.60.

The main trend: the rising structure of October 15, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 112.70 Take profit: 112.90

Buy: 113.05 Take profit: 113.20

Sell: 112.38 Take profit: 112.15

Sell: 112.05 Take profit: 111.70

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3250, 1.3199, 1.3161, 1.3127, 1.3085, 1.3060 and 1.3022. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of October 16. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3127. In this case, the target is 1.3161 and in the range of 1.3161 - 1.3199 is the short-term upward movement, as well as the consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3250, after reaching which we expect a departure to the correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3085 - 1.3060 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3022 and this level is the key support for the upward structure of October 16.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3127 Take profit: 1.3160

Buy: 1.3163 Take profit: 1.3197

Sell: 1.3085 Take profit: 1.3062

Sell: 1.3058 Take profit: 1.3025

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7130, 0.7105, 0.7088, 0.7059, 0.7034, 0.7017 and 0.6992. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of October 17. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7059. In this case, the goal is 0.7034 and in the range of 0.7034 - 0.7017 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 0.6992, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of of 0.7088 - 0.7105 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7130 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of October 17.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7088 Take profit: 0.7105

Buy: 0.7107 Take profit: 0.7130

Sell: 0.7056 Take profit: 0.7034

Sell: 0.7016 Take profit: 0.6992

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 129.72, 129.43, 129.19, 128.44, 128.18, 127.81 and 127.58. Here, the price canceled the development of the initial conditions for the upward cycle and we are following the downward structure of October 22. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 128.44 - 128.18 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 127.81. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 127.58, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 129.19 - 129.43 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 129.72 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of October 22. The breakdown will have to develop the ascending structure. In this case, the goal is 130.18 .

The main trend is the downward structure of October 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.20 Take profit: 129.40

Buy: 129.47 Take profit: 129.70

Sell: 128.42 Take profit: 128.20

Sell: 128.15 Take profit: 127.84

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 147.42, 146.80, 146.39, 145.68, 145.20, 144.91 and 144.34. Here, we are following the downward structure of October 16. The downward movement is expected after breakdown of 145.68. In this case, the target is 145.20, and the consolidation is in the range of 145.20 - 144.91. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 144.34, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 146.39 - 146.80 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 147.42 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the downward structure of October 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 146.40 Take profit: 146.75

Buy: 146.84 Take profit: 147.40

Sell: 145.65 Take profit: 145.22

Sell: 144.88 Take profit: 144.40

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