Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 03, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. The pair recorded a succession of higher tops and higher bottoms since Feb. 28, which confirmed a positive outlook. The upward momentum is further reinforced by the rising 50-period moving average. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50.

Therefore, as long as 113.85 is support, look for a further rise to 114.60 and even to 115.00 in extension.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 114.60 and the second one at 115.00. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 113.60, if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target may push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 113.30. The pivot point is at 113.85.

Resistance levels: 114.60, 115.00, and 115.45

Support levels: 113.60, 113.30, and 113.00

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 03, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in higher range. The pair is supported by the rising trend line since Feb. 28, which confirms a positive outlook. The rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages suggests that the price has potential for a further upside. The relative strength index is also supported by the rising trend line since Feb. 28 and lacks downward momentum.

On the economic data front, initial jobless claims came in lighter than expected at 233k (estimated 245k) compared with 244k in the week ended February 25th. Separately, continuing claims increased to 2.07M (expected 2.06M) vs. 2.06M in the week ending on February 18th. Finally, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort rose to 49.8 from 48.0 on the week ended February 26.

To sum up, as long as 1.0100 is not broken, expect a new rise to 1.0150 and even to 1.0165 in extension.

Resistance levels: 1.0135, 1.0150, and 1.0180

Support levels: 1.0050, 1.0035, and 1.000

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and USD/JPY for March 03, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EURUSD 4H chart has been depicted here with the alternate wave count discussed on March 01, 2017. The aggressive longs are coming into play with momentum oscillators also showing some up tick but it remains to be seen if the follow through is coming well or not. It could be possible that the entire drop from 1.0829 through 1.0492 levels can be looked into an impulse, that unfolded into 5 waves labelled i through v 1 above. The subsequent rally through 1.0630 levels as wave A, and the drop yesterday toward 1.0493 levels as wave B and wave C could terminate at near 1.0650 levels as labelled here. It is good to remain long for now with strict stop below 1.0492 levels to take advantage of the potential counter trend rally unfolding into its last leg. As an alternate though please watch out for resistance at 1.0580 levels as well.

Trading plan:

Please remain long, stop at 1.0485/87, target 1.0580 and 1.0650

USDJPY chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The USDJPY has produced an impressive rally post February 28, 2017 lows at 111.70 levels as seen on the above chart setup. It is a good time to take profits on long positions suggested earlier and turn bearish for sort term. The wave count suggests that USDJPY had dropped earlier in a zigzag fashion A-B-C (5-3-5) as labelled above. The subsequent rally looks to be an impulse, labelled i through v 1. The most likely and probable wave count from here on is a drop lower toward 112.60/80 levels which is also the fibonacci 0.618 support of the recent rally as depicted here. Immediate support is seen at 113.40 levels while resistance is at 114.59 levels respectively. An aggressive short setup is on cards from current levels.

Trading plan:

Aggressive trade setup is to go short now, stop at 114.65, targeting 112.60 /80 levels. More conservative strategy is to remain flat for now and look to buy at lower levels.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for USD ISM- Non Manufacturing Composite, unchanged at 10:00 AM EST and FED Chair Yellen Speech at Chicago at 01:00 PM EST.

Good Luck!

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Gold analysis for March 03, 2017

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Recently, the Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level $1,225.52. According to the 4H time frame, I found lower highs and lower lows, which is sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential downward targets. I got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of $1,223.90 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of $1,207.60.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,243.00

R2: $1,247.00

R3: $1,253.65

Support levels:

S1: $1,230.00

S2: $1,226.00

S3: $1,219.90

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities on the retracemets

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 03, 2017

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NZD/USD is under pressure. The pair is trading below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is bearish below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. In addition, the upside potential should be limited by the key resistance at 0.7070.

Therefore, as long as this key level is not surpassed, look for a further drop to 0.7005 and even to 0.6975 in extension.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7005. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6975. The pivot point stands at 0.7070. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7095 and the second one at 0.7110.

Resistance levels: 0.7095, 0.7110, and 0.7155

Support levels: 0.7005, 0.6975, and 0.6930

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 03, 2017

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GBP/JPY is Under pressure. The pair is trading within the bearish channel, which confirms a negative outlook. The downward momentum is further reinforced by the declining 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is capped by the descending trend line since Feb 27.

To conclude, as long as 140.45 holds on the upside, a further decline to 138.90 and even to 138.50 seems more likely to occur.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 138.90. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 138.50. The pivot point stands at 140.45. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 140 and the second one at 0.7205.

Resistance levels: 140.80, 141.20, and 142.00

Support levels: 138.90,138.50, and 138.00

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GBP/USD analysis for March 03, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level 1.2214. Anyway, according to the 5M time frame, I found decreasing of bearish momentum, which is sign that selling looks risky. Moving average oscilator is showing the divergence and decreasing in momentum and my advice is to watch for potential intraday buying opportunities. Targets are set at the price of 1.2245, 1.2260 and 1.2270.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2295

R2: 1.2310

R3: 1.2340

Support levels:

S1: 1.2245

S2: 1.2230

S3: 1.2200

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential intraday buying opportunities.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 3, 2017

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The USD/CAD pair challenged the upper limit of the depicted channel around 1.3360-1.3400 which succeeded to apply enough bearish pressure on the pair.

Shortly after, a bearish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed by the end of the week indicating strong resistance around 1.3550.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) was achieved.

This allowed a further decline toward 1.3200 and 1.3080 (the lower limit of the depicted channel) where bullish rejection was expressed as anticipated.

A bullish breakout above 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) was expected to allow a further advance toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel). However, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.3580 (recent established top).

The price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) failed to provide enough support for the recent bearish pullback.

That is why the recent bearish pullback toward 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) offered a valid BUY entry as expected in the previous articles.

This week, a bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) is needed to enhance bullish advance towards 1.3440 and 1.3550.

Otherwise, the USD/CAD pair remains trapped within the current consolidation range (1.2970-1.3300).

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 3, 2017

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On December 16, the price level of 0.6960 failed to apply enough bullish pressure. Instead, bearish movement continued toward the lower limit of the depicted BUY zone (0.6860) which provided significant bullish rejection on December 23.

The NZD/USD pair was trapped within the depicted price range (0.6860-0.6990) until a bullish breakout occurred.

A bullish breakout above 0.6960-0.7000 allowed the pair to head toward the price level of 0.7100 (Key level) which failed to provide sufficient bearish pressure on the pair.

Bullish persistence above 0.7100 allowed further bullish advance toward 0.7250-0.7350 (Sell-Zone) where the bearish price action should be expected.

Bearish persistence below 0.7250 is needed to allow further bearish decline toward 0.7100 (note the previous bearish DAILY candlesticks expressed within the SELL-Zone).

As anticipated, bearish persistence below 0.7100 (Key-Level) allows further bearish movement toward 0.6960 where bullish rejection may be watched for a possible BUY entry.

On the other hand, any bullish pullback towards 0.7100 should be watched for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

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Global macro overview for 03/03/2017

Global macro overview for 03/03/2017:

The Bank of Canada left its key interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.5% at its policy meeting on Wednesday. Despite the fact, that BoC acknowledged that the economy probably expanded at a stronger-than-expected pace in the final quarter of 2016, BoC decided not to stimulate the economy for now. The BoC justify, that the economy remained below its production capacity and inflation growth was driven mostly by temporary factors and it will continue to monitor the risks outlined at its January policy meeting. In conclusion, the biggest source of uncertainty for the Canadian economy is now the Trump policies towards Canada. So far no special changes have been made by Trump, but as we remember from his presidential campaign, he promised to "tweak" the relationship between the US and Canada.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The technical resistance at the level of 1.3388 had been violated, and now the price is heading higher towards the next technical resistance at the level of 1.3460 in overbought market conditions. It is quite possible, that the corrective cycle is just around the corner and the growing bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator supports this view.

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Global macro overview for 03/03/2017

Global macro overview for 03/03/2017:

The National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key gauge of inflation in Japan. The latest set of CPI data has been released overnight. The figures were in line with market expectations (0.4% versus 0.4% expected, 0.3% prior). The inflation rate accelerated for the first time this year (after a year of a negative growth). National CPI has been in positive territory since October when it recorded its first increase in nine months. Inflation is gradually improving on the back of the record monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The latest inflation report may be a sign that the highly accommodative BOJ policies began to stimulate price growth in the world's third-largest economy.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/JPY technical picture on the H1 time frame. The market is oversold, and further rally is possible in case the technical resistance at the level of 120.48 is clearly violated. The intraday support at the level of 119.56 should hold the line while the price will be climbing higher. This bullish bias will be invalidated if the market breaks below the intraday support at 119.56.

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Trading plan for 03/03/2017

Trading plan for 03/03/2017:

On Friday 3rd of March 2017, there is plenty of news released during the European and American trading sessions and the global investors will pay attention to PMI Services data from Eurozone, PMI Services data from the United kingdom, the ISM Non-Manufacturing data from the US and last, but not least Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen's speech.

EUR/USD analysis for 03/03/2017:

The PMI Services data are scheduled for release at 09:00 am GMT and the market participants are expecting a steady, unchanged numbers from the Eurozone. The expected PMI for the whole EU should be released at the level of 56.6 points, which is still above level of 50 points which separates expansion from contraction.

Let's take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H1 time frame. The price had bounced from technical support at the level of 1.0493 and now the bulls are trying to break out above the intraday resistance at the level of 1.0527. A better than expected PMI data (bigger than 56.6 points) might help to rally higher towards the next intraday resistance at the level of 1.0545, but this rally might be short-lived despite the oversold market conditions. The main reason for that is a speech from Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen later on the day which will possibly be hawkish again and this, in turn, will push the EUR/USD pair back to low levels.

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GBP/USD analysis for 03/03/2017:

The last set of PMI data from the UK, the PMI Services data is scheduled for release at 09:30 am GMT. Up to this date, the overall PMI data from the United Kingdom (for manufacturing and construction sectors of the economy) are holding above the level of 50 points, so no indication of any recession or contraction is present. Today's data are about to confirm this trend in the UK economy.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H1 time frame. The price has been trying to bounce from 61%Fibo at the level of 1.2261, but so far no avail. The bears have managed to make another lower low at the level of 1.2240 and now the market is positioning itself ahead of the data release. Better than expected data might help to bounce once again towards the level of 1.2345, but any worse than expected data will speed up the sell-off towards the next support at the level of 1.2140 (78%Fibo level).

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Market snapshot: Gold backs off from the 61%Fibo resistance

The price of Gold was heavily sold yesterday after the bulls did not manage to close the daily candle above 61%Fibo at the level of 1,255. The price had clearly violated the golden trend line dynamic support and now is trading around the technical support at the level of 1,225. The market still looks overbought and the next technical support for the price is at the level of 1,216. Only a clear and sustained break out above the technical resistance at the level of 1,236 would invalidate this bearish bias.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 03, 2017

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Overview:

  • The trend of the NZD/USD pair movement was controversial as it took place in a downtrend channel. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.7129 and 0.6942. Also, the daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 0.7129 and 0.6942 respectively. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. So, we need to wait until the sideways channel is completed on the H4 chart. The market moved from its bottom at 0.7072 and continued to fall towards the top of 0.7020. Today, the current rise will probably remain within a framework of correction around the area of 0.7072 or 0.7100. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.7072 or 0.7100, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 0.7072 or 0.7100 (the level of 0.7072 coincides with the ratio of the 38.2% Fibonacci Expansion). Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 0.7072 or 0.7100 with the first target at 0.7000. If the trend breaks the support level of 0.7000, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level 0.6942 in order to form a new double bottom.
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Technical analysis of USDX for March 3, 2017

The Dollar index remains in a bullish trend and has broken above 102. Today's close is very important. If the bulls manage to keep hold of the trend, then we can say that at 99.25 we see an important medium-term low. Target remains at 105-110.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

The Dollar index is making higher highs and higher lows. There are bearish divergence signs in the 4-hour chart shown above. Short-term support is at 101.50 and resistance at 103. Trend will change on a break below 101.10.

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Black line - neckline support

Green line - long-term support trend line

The weekly chart remains bullish as the price is trying to break above the tenkan-sen (Red line indicator). Weekly support is at 100.70. Next weekly resistance is at 103.70. It is crucial to see where this week closes. So far the bulls remain in control.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 03, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair is calling for a bullish market from the support levels of 1.0041 and 1.0097.
  • Currently, the price is in a bullish channel on the 4H chart. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market.
  • As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.0041 which coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci.
  • Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.0041. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0041.
  • In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (1.0041) with the first target at the level of 1.0153.
  • Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.0153, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.0233) to test it.
  • It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.9972.

Daily key levels:

  • Major resistance: 1.0233
  • Minor resistance: 1.0153
  • Intraday pivot point: 1.0097
  • Minor support: 1.0041
  • Major support: 0.9972
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Technical analysis of gold for March 3, 2017

Gold weakness continues below our comfort zone and the bullish scenario is now in danger. The price should and must reverse soon to the upside. Otherwise the bullish scenario for $1,280-$1,320 will be canceled. Gold is in a bearish short-term trend and needs to retake $1,250 to change trend.

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Red line - support

Black line - price extension targets

The price has broken below the Ichimoku cloud. Short-term trend is confirmed to be bearish. This might put in danger our medium-term bullish view for a move towards $1,280-$1,320. Gold is approaching the $1,220 target where the 2nd leg down will be equal to the first. Critical support for our bullish view is at $1,216. This level should not break. Stochastic is diverging at oversold levels. The RSI has entered oversold levels as well.

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Black line - long-term resistance

The weekly chart for Gold is implying a reversal. Although the oscillators imply more upside, the weekly candle has broken below the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). The week is not over yet, so the bulls will need to step up today. Otherwise the bullish scenario will be in danger.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 3, 2017

EUR/USD: There is now a strong bearish signal on the EUR/USD. The EMA 11 has crossed the EMA 56 to the downside, and the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the oversold region. While there may be some bullish effort in the market, the overall movement would be bearish within the next several trading days.

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USD/CHF: This pair is going upwards – just in the opposite direction to the EUR/USD. Price is now above the support level at 1.0100, going toward the resistance level at 1.0150. This is the next target. The support level at 1.0000 is the ultimate impediment to any bearish effort in the market, for the bullish signal would not be rendered completely invalid until it is breached to the downside.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD has plummeted by 220 pips this week. Price has tested the accumulation territory at 1.2250, and it would retest it. Once the accumulation territory is breached to the downside, the next target for bears would be another accumulation territory at 1.2200.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument trended upwards seriously this week, testing the supply level at 114.50. Here, price met some challenge and it has pulled back. However, the pullback would likely be contained at the demand levels of 114.00 and 113.50, areas from which price may resume its bullish journey.

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EUR/JPY: This currency cross has generated a bullish signal since the middle of the week. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and price is supposed to continue to go upwards in spite of the current correction. The market could go upwards again to test the supply zone at 120.50, and even breach it to the upside.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Mar 03, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Retail Sales m/m, Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, Spanish Services PMI and German Retail Sales m/m. The US will release the economic data, too, such as ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Final Services PMI, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0567.

Strong Resistance:1.0560.

Original Resistance: 1.0550.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0540.

Target Inner Area: 1.0515.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0490.

Original Support: 1.0480.

Strong Support: 1.0470.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0463.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Mar 03, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Rate, Tokyo Core CPI y/y, National Core CPI y/y and Household Spending y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Final Services PMI. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 114.81.

Resistance. 2: 114.58.

Resistance. 1: 114.36.

Support. 1: 114.08.

Support. 2: 113.86.

Support. 3: 113.64.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for March 03, 2017

USDX is looking once again to break above 102.39, as the bulls are trying to gather some momentum for the short-term. If the index manages to consolidate above that area, then we can expect some rallies to reach 103.40. However, as the week is coming to an end, we should witness some corrective moves to test the 101.39 level. MACD indicator is entering at the neutral territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 102.39 / 103.40

H1 chart's support levels: 101.39 / 100.44

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 102.39, take profit is at 103.40 and stop loss is at 101.35.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 03, 2017

GBP/USD is trying to consolidate below the 1.2300 handle in the short-term, as the pair is weakening across the board. However, as the Cable is struggling to increase its acceleration, we can expect some slight rebounds to take place toward 1.2350. Such level should be the last one before to reach the 200 SMA at H1 chart.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2391 / 1.2546

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2280 / 1.2123

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2280, take profit is at 1.2123 and stop loss is at 1.2434.

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Daily Video Analysis on EUR/JPY - 2nd March 2017

Ask me questions here : http://forum.mt5.com/showthread.php?129814-Analytical-reviews-by-Dean-Leo-discussions-and-questions-to-the-author

We take an in-depth look on EUR/JPY to see if there are any trading opportunities available for us to trade off and generate potential profits from. We explain clearly how we use a range of analytical approaches from Fibonacci retracements to Fibonacci extensions, price action and oscillators to determine such trading opportunities. Join us and learn how to find good trading opportunities through technical analysis!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 2, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/NZD is currently at a very important juncture. A break above resistance seen at 1.4867 will confirm that a long-term low is in place with the test of 1.4495 and a new long-term impulsive rally is developing. The first upside target upon a break above 1.4867 is seen near 1.5282 and then 1.5516 on the way higher to 1.5836.

Support is now seen at 1.4677, which ideally will protect the downside.

R3: 1.5193

R2: 1.4954

R1: 1.4867

Pivot: 1.4860

S1: 1.4677

S2: 1.4629

S3: 1.4554

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.4840 with stop placed at 1.4490. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.4867 and use the same stop.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 2 - 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/JPY continues to gain towards the upside. We continue to look for more upside pressure with 121.28, as the next minor target on the way higher towards 124.09 and higher to 125.93. That will complete wave 3. Short-term minor support seen at 119.86, ideally it will be able to protect the downside for the test and a break above 121.28.

R3: 121.75

R2: 121.28

R1: 120.65

Pivot: 120,30

S1: 119.86

S2: 119.50

S1: 119.00

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 119.86 with stop placed at 118.60. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 119.86 and use the same stop.

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