BITCOIN Analysis for June 12, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite bearish with the gains getting certain bullish intervention from the $6,500 area which is expected to push the price higher towards the $7,500 to $8,000 area in the coming days. As of the recent hack attack, Bitcoin fell dramatically which lead to certain indecision in the market due to insecurity being felt by the market participants. As of the current scenario, the price is expected to push higher towards the mean of 20 EMA where Tenkan and Kijun lines also cross. As the price remains above the $6,500 area with a daily close, certain bullish pressure is expected in the future.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBPUSD for June 12, 2018

GBPUSD has been quite volatile and corrective above the 1.3320 area which is expected to push downwards in the coming days. Though USD has been struggling to gain momentum over GBP recently, upcoming high-impact economic reports are expected to have a positive impact on further bearish gains in the pair.

Today GBP Average Earning Index report was published with a decrease of 2.5% as expected from the previous value of 2.6%; Claimant Count Change had a positive result decreasing to -7.7k from the previous figure of 31.2k which was expected to be at 11.3k, and Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. The mixed economic report results confused the market sentiment for a while now but currently bears are gaining momentum in the process.

On the other hand, today USD CPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.2% and Core CPI report is also expected to be unchanged at 0.1%. Moreover, NFIB Small Business Index report published recently showed an increase to 107.8 from the previous figure of 104.8 which was expected to be at 105.2.

As of the current scenario, GBP reports have been quite indecisive today which lea to certain correction and volatility in the market whereas USD economic reports are also expected to be unchanged. The forecast with unchanged value led to certain indecision in the market by now but an increase in value with an actual result is expected to lead to further USD gains in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA which is expected to push the price much lower towards the 1.3050 support area in the future. The price has been quite non-volatile and bearish with the gains since last few months which is expected to continue pushing lower in the coming days. As the price remains below the 1.35 area with a daily close, further bearish pressure is expected in this pair.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 12, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot point: 1.2961.

The USD/CAD pair will continue to rise from the spots of 1.2961. The support is found at the level of 1.2961, which represents the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom. Today, the major support is seen at 1.2961, while immediate resistance is seen at 1.3021. Accordingly, the USD/CAD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the high at 1.2961. So, buy above the level of 1.2961 with the first target at 1.3021 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and move further to 1.3049. Also, the level of 1.3049 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the USD/CAD pair to climb from 1.2961 to 1.3049 today. At the same time, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD pair breaks through the support level of 1.2961, a further decline to 1.2849 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for June 12, 2018

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Overview:

The price is still trading between the levels of 0.7566 and 0.7613. The bullish trend of the AUD/USD pair runs from the support levels of 0.7509 and 0.7566. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.7566, which coincides with the golden ratio (38.2% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.7566. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.7566. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the level of 0.7566 with the first target at the level of 0.7661. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.7661, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7814) to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7460.

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Global macro overview for 12/06/2018

The ZEW index, which measures analysts' moods in relation to the German economy, dropped to 80.6 in May from 87.4 in April. The fall is stronger than the expected number of 85. Analysts also look pessimistic on the outlook - the index of Economic Sentiment fell to -16.1 from -8.2 versus expected -14. This is the lowest reading since 2012 and there are no reasons to be satisfied here.

The single currency fell little just under 1.1790 because the data was not a big surprise. The euro is more interested in Thursday's interest rate decision of the ECB. Moreover, the economic assessment by the entrepreneurs measured with the Ifo index is more important for the markets.

Let's now take a look at the German DAX Index technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market tried to rally before the data were published, but now the price is dropping again towards the intraday support at the level of 12,856. Any breakout lower would indicate the bears are in control of the market and might push the price towards the level of 12,641 again. For the bulls, the key level to the upside is still seen at the swing top at 13,201.

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Global macro overview for 12/06/2018

For the second month in a row, data from the British job market are coming out as expected. Although the wage growth rate dropped to 2.8% year-on-year basis, which is slightly below the previous reading and median forecasts of 2.9% ), it is still a solid result close to several-year records dynamics. Moreover, the Claimant Count Change data (data on those individuals who are out of work and who are claiming some sort of unemployment benefit) dropped more than expected as well (-7.7k vs. 11.0k expected, 28k prior). The market could be afraid of weaker data after yesterday's industry data. Maybe other sectors of the economy are doing so slowly, but the labor market with unemployment at 4.2% it is not the worry of the Bank of England.

The market participants remain focused on today's Brexit votes and tomorrow's reading of inflation. If these figures fall out decently, the August hike will remain in the game (currently its chance is estimated at 54%). This move of BoE would likely result in a broad appreciation of the Pound across the board.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. After the data release, the pair remains above the level of 1.3399 which is the major intraday technical support for the bulls. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.3422 and then 1.3451. On the other hand, if the bulls will lose control over the market, then the intraday decline might be quite a several as the next important technical support is seen at the level of 1.3354 - 1.3340 zone.

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Bitcoin analysis for June 12, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $6,796. The Canadian bitcoin investors and cryptocurrency traders are going to be subjected to an increased level of market surveillance soon if the government has its way. Once the proposed regulations are implemented, every transaction above CAD 10,000 will have to be reported. Technical picture on bitcoin looks neutral to bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time frame, I found a potential bullish flag in creation, which is a sign that selling looks risky. Bitcoin is in a bullish corrective phase. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the prices of $6.908 and $7.014.00.

Support/Resistance

$6.880– Intraday resistance

$6.760– Intraday support

$6.910 – Objective target 1

$7.015 – Objective target 2

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 12, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the short-term outlook turned into bearish when the EUR/USD pair maintained trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

As mentioned, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established.

The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, further bearish momentum was expressed in the market.

Currently, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) is now considered a prominent Supply zone to offer bearish rejection and possible SELL entries. S/L should be placed above 1.1900.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.1700-1.1750 (zone of previous daily lows) is currently needed to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1400 (the previously mentioned monthly key level).

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for June 12, 2018

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The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 stood as a significant supply zone during the recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous week's consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, the bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The bearish scenario needs obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.6860 and 0.6820. That's why, the price level of 0.7050 is currently considered a key level for the NZD/USD bears.

Any bullish breakout above the price level of 0.7050 hinders further bearish decline allowing a bullish pullback to occur towards 0.7170-0.7220.

On the other hand, when bearish momentum persists, the price zone of 0.6820-0.6780 will be the next destination for the NZD/USD pair. It should be watched for bullish rejection and a possible valid BUY entry.

The current bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand Level) remains a good opportunity for sellers to have a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.7100.

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Analysis of Gold for June 12, 2018

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Recently, gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,297.65. According to the H1 time frame, I found an intraday bullish flag in creation. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the prices of $1,302.75 and $1,305.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,306.35

R2: $1,310.63

R3: $1,314.85

Support levels:

S1: $1,297.85

S2: $1,293.63

S3: $1,289.15

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for June 12, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3391. According to the H1 time frame, I found a broken intraday bullish flat and rejection of the support trend line (larger bullish flag), which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the prices of 1.3437 and 1.3468.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3427

R2: 1.3482

R3: 1.3523

Support levels:

S1: 1.3331

S2: 1.3290

S3: 1.3235

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis on EURUSD for June 12, 2018

The EUR/USD pair was under pressure yesterday as the price fell as far as the 1.1740 area. The longer-term strategy and view remains bullish targeting 1.20. A pullback towards 1.17 is considered a buying opportunity.

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Yellow rectangle - support area

Red line - RSI resistance

Magenta line - expectations

Short-term resistance is at 1.1815. As long as the price is below that area, I believe another pullback towards 1.17 is very possible. It is also important to watch the RSI (14) on the 1-hour chart as the price remains below its resistance. A bullish sign for EUR/USD would be a break of the RSI price above its resistance trend line. If EUR/USD breaks above 1.1815, but the RSI remains suppressed, this would be a bearish sign. My longer-term view remains bullish expecting a move towards 1.20.

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Technical analysis on Gold for June 12, 2018

The gold price remains trapped inside two trading ranges. If gold breaks below $1,290, we should expect to see $1,280-70 at least. A break above $1,304-$1,307 will open the way for a move towards $1,330 and higher.

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Green lines - targets

Magenta lines - trading range 1

Blue lines - trading range 2

Yellow line - medium-term resistance

The gold price has broken above the medium-term resistance but has made no progress. This waiting stance is the result of the waiting stance the entire market participants have taken against the Wednesday FOMC. Even if the gold price breaks lower towards $1,280-70, I would still consider this as a buying opportunity before $1,400 comes.

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Bitcoin analysis for 12/06/2018

Cryptocurrency users are unloading their frustration after the mainstream media reports that the cryptocurrency market has collapsed due to the hacking of the small South Korean Coinrail exchange.

When recorded a decline both bitcoin and altcoins on the 10th of June, sources such as Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Reuters or The Guardian claimed that the break-in to the Coinrail exchange - which according to local media caused 37 million dollars in losses - it was the direct cause of the collapse of markets. The stock market confirmed the burglary on Twitter and in the post on its website, but has not determined the exact losses yet.

"The enthusiasm for virtual currencies has partially decreased due to the string of cyber attacks," wrote Bloomberg, citing a Singaporean forex investor who said that Coinrail led to a reflexive sale, causing prices to fall. The Wall Street Journal added a block to the confusion emerging from recent events, claiming that the altcoins stolen from Coinrail were "alternative versions of bitcoin."

Both reports confirmed the small scale of the Coinrail operation. The stock market is only on the 99th place in terms of trading volume, amounting to USD 2.65 million on the day before the break-in. Nevertheless, the financial media believes that Bitcoin's price fell by 11%, because a small cryptocurrency market in South Korea, which is used by a very small proportion of local users was hacked, while most likely Bitcoin fell because people were selling, and too few people were willing to buy, not because of a small hack.

One of the theories about Sunday's price decline is that the reason may have been the screening of four US stock exchanges by regulators, while traders point to long-term reasons to explain bitcoin's behavior.

Let's now take a look at the bitcoin technical picture on the H4 time frame. Not much has changed since yesterday as the bitcoin price had bounced and now stays in the horizontal zone between the levels of $6,588 - $6,937 (weekly pivot). There is not much buying going on as well, perhaps the bulls are not interested yet in this prices. Nevertheless, the short-term key technical resistance is seen at the level of $6,993 and then at $7,225. Only a clear and sustained breakout above this levels could change the short-term bias to slightly bullish. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of $7,890.

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Trading plan for 12/06/2018

The currency market shows slight overnight changes, but towards a drop in risk aversion. USD/JPY is pulling up to 110.30, USD only gains NZD (0.7040) and some AUD (0.7615). EUR/USD is bounced up after the nightly visit at 1.1750. The stock market is dominated by increases. The Japanese Nikkei225 grows by 0.5% and the Chinese Shanghai Composite gains 0.6%.

On Tuesday 12th of June, the event calendar is full of important data releases. France will post Change in Private Payrolls data, Italy will post Quarterly Unemployment Rate data, and the UK will present Claimant Count Change and Average Earnings Index data. Germany and Eurozone will present the ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) data. Later during the New York session, the US will post Consumer Price Index data.

EUR/USD analysis for 12/06/2018:

President Trump's press conference is scheduled for 08:00 am GMT, but before the moment of the documenting ceremony Trump did not fail to share his impressions from the conversation with Kim Dzong Ung. Trump said he was signing a "very important" document and that he and Kim had formed a "very strong bond". According to the assets, you cannot see the reaction during quite a calm session of Asian trade. Moreover, he said the process of denuclearization would start "very fast" and "a lot of goodwill has been put into" this project. He added that Kim is "fantastic" and is a "valuable negotiator" and a "very talented man". Generally, a lot of politeness and little content. Whatever you can pull from the top, it could always be worse. This is not a reason for euphoria, so markets remain in a generally positive, though peaceful climate.

The financial media quote an interview by Ewald Nowotny from the ECB given to German newspaper Kleine Zeitung. Nowotny said that he "looks with concern" at events in Italy, but does not think that they will lead to a "real crisis" that would become a big problem for the European banking sector. Nowotny declined to comment on interest rates, but it looks that the recent big spike in the inflationary pressures will be treated more seriously by the ECB governing council.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H1 time frame. The market broke below the golden trend line support and now is testing the breakout from below. The intraday low was set at the level of 1.1740 and if bears try to push the price lower from here, then this support will likely be broken and the price will head towards the levels of 1.1726 - 1.1719.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 12 - 2018

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We are still looking for a clear break above minor resistance at 1.6821 as confirmation that wave ii/ indeed completed with the test of 1.6584 and wave iii/ higher is developing above the former peak at 1.7294.

As long as minor resistance at 1.6821 is able to cap the upside, we need to accept the possibility of another dip in wave ii/ closer to the 61.8% corrective target of wave i/, which is seen at 1.6683 before turning higher in wave iii/.

R3: 1.6889

R2: 1.6830

R1: 1.6762

Pivot: 1.6727

S1: 1.6707

S2: 1.6689

S3:1.6646

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6600 with our stop placed at 1.6700. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6730 or upon a break above 1.6748 and use the same stop at 1.6700.

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AUD/JPY Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal

AUD/JPY is approaching its resistance at 84.47 (100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where we expect the price to reverse and fall to its support at 81.30 (horizontal swing low support). We have to be cautious of the intermediate support at 82.75 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 98% where a corresponding reversal is expected. We have also identified a bearish divergence with the price which contributes to our bearish bias.

Sell below 84.47. Stop loss at 85.51. Take profit at 81.30.

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NZD/USD Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce

NZD/USD is approaching its support at 0.6995 (100% Fibonacci extension, 100% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where we expect to see the price bounce off from here to its resistance at 0.7054 (horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 6.41% where a corresponding bounce is expected.

Buy above 0.6995. Stop loss at 0.6961. Take profit at 0.7054.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 12 - 2018

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The rally of the 128.07 low looks constructive and calls for more upside progress towards the important resistance at 131.35, where we might see another sideways consolidation, before moving higher towards 133.49 as the next minor upside target and longer-term much higher.

In the long term, we are looking for much more upside, if wave (E) completes with the test of 124.59, it will be our preferred outlook for the time being.

R3: 131.35

R2: 130.65

R1: 130.28

Pivot: 1129.37

S1: 129.04

S2: 128.80

S3: 128.59

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 129.47 with our stop placed at 128.50. Upon a break above 130.06, we will move our stop to break-even at 129.47.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for June 12, 2018

EUR/JPY

What happened yesterday shows that bulls are still willing to push the price upwards. The EMA 11 has crossed above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 has crossed the level 50 to the upside. Should the price continue to move further upwards, it would lead to an emphasis on the recent Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

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There will be some form of strong volatility on the EUR/JPY pair this week. A test of the demand zone at 127.50 will threaten the new bullish bias in the market; while a movement towards the supply zones at 130.00, 130.50, and 131.00 will strengthen it.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for June 12, 2018

USD/JPY

The market tried to move upwards a little on June 11. The USD/JPY pair is bullish in the long term but neutral in the short term. In the last two weeks, the price has generally oscillated between the demand level at 108.50 and the supply level at 110.50. However, a smooth bullish movement would bring about a bullish outlook in the market.

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The EMA 11 has crossed above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 has crossed the level 50 to the upside. Should the price continue to move further upwards, the bias in the market would become clearly bullish (leading to the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the past).

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for June 12, 2018

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF pair did nothing significant on Monday, except for consolidating. In the long term, the market has been caught in a slow and gradual downward movement, and it is a situation in which short-term rallies often lead to further downward movement. The outlook on USD/CHF is bearish for the week, especially when the EUR/USD pair gathers some stamina.

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The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the Williams' % Range period 20 is showing some form of neutrality. There is the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The support levels at 0.9800 (which has been tested previously), 0.9750, and 0.9700 would be reached soon, and that might bring about the strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

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Wave analysis of GBP/USD for June 12. Corrective recoil began within the wave b.

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on June 11, the GBP/USD pair lost about 70 basis points from the day's high. and began, thus, the construction of wave b in the composition of the future wave 2 of the downward trend section. If this assumption is true, then the decline in quotations will continue with the targets, which are about 33 figures. After the completion of wave b, a resumption of the increase in quotations within wave c, at 2, is expected with the targets located near the estimated mark of 1.3651, which corresponds to 38.2% of Fibonacci.

Targets for buying:

1.3478 - 23.6% by Fibonacci

1.3528 - 127.2% by Fibonacci of the highest order

1.3651 - 38.2% by Fibonacci

Targets for selling:

1.3045 - 200.0% by Fibonacci of the highest order

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The assumed wave 2, in a continues its construction. Now the pair is in the formation stage of wave b, at 2. About 33 figures, counting on the completion of wave b, it is recommended to begin buying the pair with minimal targets near the mark of 1.3478, which is equivalent to 23.6% Fibonacci, constructed according to the size of the whole wave and the downward part of the trend. Return to the sales of the pair is recommended no earlier than a successful attempt to break through the lows of June 1 and 4.

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Wave analysis of EUR/USD for June 12. The pair is expected to resume growth.

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Analysis of wave counting:

During trading on Monday, the EUR/USD fell 40 basis points from the highs of the day, and this development fits perfectly into the scenario of constructing the correctional wave 4, in the composition of the future wave 1, in 1, in 3. If this assumption is correct, then after the completion of the construction of the internal wave c, at 4, the rise in quotations within the framework of wave 5 with targets above the estimated mark of 1,1837, which corresponds to 200.0% of Fibonacci. After the completion of the construction of wave 5, a decrease in the region of 17 figures is expected in the framework of constructing the corrective wave 2, at 1, at 3.

Targets for selling:

1.1700 - 1.1650

Targets for buying:

1.1958 - 161.8% by Fibonacci of the highest order

1.2070 - 127.2% by Fibonacci of the highest order

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair is supposed to be within the framework of wave 4, at 1, at 1. Based on this, it is recommended to keep buying in order to build a wave of 5, at 1, at 1 with minimal targets near the mark of 1.1837. Successful attempt to break the mark of 1,1837 will lead to a further increase in quotations with a target of about 1.1958, which is equivalent to 161.8% of Fibonacci. During the construction of wave 5, at 1, at 1 it is recommended to reduce buying gradually, because after the completion of this wave, a decrease in the area of 17 figures is possible.

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Fractal analysis: GOLD on June 12

Forecast for June 12:

Analytical review on the scale of H1:

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For gold, the key levels in H1 scale are: 1317.09, 1308.97, 1305.28, 1300.97, 1287.67 and 1281.60. There the continuation of the movement upwards is expected after a breakout 1300.97, in this case the first target - 1305.28, in the area of 1305.28 - 1308.97 price consolidation. Break of level 1308.97 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement, here the potential target is 1317.09.

The level 1291.63 is a key support for the local upward structure from June 5, its breakdown will have to the development of the downward movement, in this case, the goal is 1287.67, near this level of consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is still the level of 1281.60.

The main trend - local structure for the top of June 5.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1301.00 Take profit: 1305.00

Buy 1305.30 Take profit: 1308.90

Sell: 1291.30 Take profit: 1288.00

Sell: 1287.20 Take profit: 1281.60

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Indicator analysis. The daily review for June 11, 2018 on the GBP/USD pair.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Monday, the price moved down. On Tuesday, most likely, the downward movement will continue. Complex analysis will more accurately tell where the price will go.

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Fig. 2 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candle analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair may move down with the first target 1.3259-support line.

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Indicator analysis. The daily review for June 12, 2018 for the EUR/USD pair.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Monday the market, moving upwards, could not overcome the upper fractal 1.1830 (red dotted line) and rolled back down. Today, in anticipation of bad news, the market can move down. Complex analysis will more accurately tell where the price will go.

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Fig. 2 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - down;

- candle analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion.

On Tuesday, the market will move down with the first target of 1.1728 - the bottom fractal.

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Trading plan for the European session on June 12 for the EUR/USD

To open long positions on EURUSD it is required:

Euro buyers today in the first half of the day should return to resistance level 1.1777, above which a larger upward wave will lead to the renewal of yesterday's highs around 1.1821. The main target for long positions will be to go beyond 1.1821 and update the area 1.1869, where it is recommended recording profits. In case of a decline, one can buy the euro on a rebound from 1.1692, or on a false breakdown from support of 1.1730.

To open short positions on EURUSD it is required:

Failure to secure above 1.1777 with a return to this level in the first half of the day will be the first signal for the opening of short positions in euros with the main target of breakdown and consolidation below support 1.1730, which will lead to the formation of a larger downward wave to 1.1692 and 1.1657, where it is recommended to record profit. In the case of growth above 1.1777, selling the euro can be on a rebound from 1.1821 and 1.1869.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the European session on June 12 for the GBP/USD

To open long positions on GBP/USD it is required:

The formation of a false breakout at 1.3344 with a return to resistance level 1.3370 would be a good signal to buy pound, the main target of which is the 1.3400 area, where it is recommended recording profit in the morning. If the GBP/USD falls below the level of 1.3344, consider long positions on a rebound from 1.3303.

To open short positions on GBP/USD it is required:

Sellers will try to consolidate below 1.3344 in the morning, and weak labor market data may lead to a larger selling of the pound to area 1.3303 and 1.3255, where it is recommended recording profits. In the case of growth above 1.3370, it is recommended to return to selling the GBP/USD from resistance of 1.3400.

analytics5b1f68f381419.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning forecast 06/12/2018

Burning forecast 06/12/2018

EURUSD: Growth under pressure.

Main event: Meeting Trump - Kim Jong Un (North Korea).

This event is important, but it will most likely not have a strong impact on the market.

The main thing for the markets is a meeting of the world's top regulators- the Fed tomorrow on June 13 and the ECB on June 14.

Judging by the market reaction to the expectations of the Central Bank's decision - the euro could change direction.

We keep buying from 1.1745 but the stop is moved to 1.1725 with a coup, that is:

Sell the euro from 1.1725 stop at 1.1770 profit at 1.1525

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ZEW indexes depress the euro

EUR/USD

A relaxed atmosphere flowed in the market on Monday, like today's meeting of Donald Trump with Kim Jong-Un. Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria stated the government's desire to stay in the euro area, which, naturally, did not become a revelation, and investors focused on the forthcoming meetings of the Fed and the ECB. The volume of industrial production in Italy in April fell by 1.2% against the forecast of -0.7%.

On the part of economic indicators, the situation in the euro zone is deteriorating. Today, sentiment indicators in business sectors in Germany and the euro zone ZEW for the current month are scheduled to be released. German ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected at -14.6 points against -8.2 in May, in the euro area 0.1 against 2.4 earlier. This means that sentiment fell to the level of November 2012. In the US, the consumer price index for May is expected to grow by 0.2%, the base CPI is projected to grow by 0.1%. Year-on-year, the total CPI is expected to increase from 2.5% y/y to 2.7% y/y, the base CPI growth from 2.1% y/y to 2.2% y/y.

Tomorrow, the euro area industrial output April estimate will be released - a forecast of -0.5% The probability that the Fed raises the rate is at 93%. We expect the euro to fall to 1.1620 and lower to 1.1510 (as the ECB decision on monetary policy may be softer than investors' expectations due to the deterioration of the euro area economic indicators and confirmation by Donald Trump of the intention to engage a trade war with the EU.

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The pound is sinking down

GBP/USD

The British pound declined on Monday by 26 points due to the failure of industrial production data. The pound could lose even more, but the general market sluggishness before important meetings of the central banks and the politically optimistic background on the statements of Italian Treasury Secretary Giovanni Tria and the meetings of the leaders of the United States and North Korea weakened the aggressiveness of the "bears". So, industrial production in April shrank by 0.8% against the expectation of growth of 0.1%. Production in the manufacturing sector fell by 1.4% against a forecast of growth of 0.3%. The volume of production in the construction sector has grown, but only by 0.5%, while 2.4% is expected and the previous fall by 2.3%. The trade balance of the United Kingdom for April increased the negative balance from -12.0 billion pounds to -14.0 billion pounds.

Today data on labor will be published. The number of applications for unemployment benefits for May is expected to decrease from 31.2 thousand to 11.3 thousand, but the change in employment over the last 3 months (as a moving average) is expected at 124 thousand against 197 thousand in March. The average wage level, taking into account premiums, is expected to maintain a steady growth - the forecast for April was 2.5% after 2.6% in March. The unemployment rate (as of April) is expected to be unchanged at 4.2%. Nevertheless, the April indices of industrial production, most likely, will put pressure on the employment indicators. For the US, the growth of the CPI is expected - the May forecast is 0.2%.

We expect the pound to fall below the level of 1.3330, so as to raise the Fed rate to 1.3225/45 range and further to the range of 1.3135/65.

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Kim Jong Un gave the morning freshness to the markets

AUD/USD

On the external neutral background, the Australian dollar yesterday showed a slight, within the fluctuation, an increase of 11 points. Today, the data came out negative, but only the news of a peaceful meeting of trump with Kim Jong-UN slightly revived optimism in the market.

The volume of investment in real estate in April reduced the decline- only -0.9% against -9.0% in March. The volume of housing loans in the same month fell by 1.4%, but the forecast was -1.7% (the March figure was revised for deterioration from -2.2% to -2.3%). The NAB business confidence index fell from 10 to 6 in the previous month with the expectation 9. The observed growth in the range of 0.7610/20 may be completed, then we expect the price to return to 0.7570, and further decrease to 0.7440 - the probability of an increase in the Fed's rate is 93%.

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