GBP/USD. November 30. COT report. The British pound is holding near annual highs. Traders expect a strong fall, especially

GBP/USD – 1H.

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According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed another reversal in favor of the US currency and consolidated under another upward trend corridor. Prior to this, the British dollar quotes have already been fixed under the trend lines and corridors several times, however, the mood of traders did not change to "bearish". Now we see approximately the same picture. The pair's quotes have already made a reversal in favor of the British dollar and again began the process of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.3375). Very chaotic movements that have nothing to do with the current information background. And the information background for the British does not change. Almost no news is coming from America right now. And from the UK, there is an endless stream of messages about the resumption or continuation of trade negotiations. There are no reports that the parties are approaching a deal, or that there is progress on the "fishing issue". On the contrary, both Brussels and London regularly state that they are ready for a no-deal Brexit and will not conclude an agreement at any cost. However, the talks are continuing, although Boris Johnson has repeatedly stated that November 15 is the deadline for completing the negotiations. It is very difficult to understand how long the negotiations will last.

GBP/USD – 4H.

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On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a consolidation under the ascending corridor, as well as on the hourly chart. Thus, the mood of traders should have changed to "bearish" and the pair's quotes began to fall. However, we don't see anything like this yet. Moreover, a bullish divergence is brewing in the CCI indicator, which may allow the pair to perform a reversal in favor of the British and resume the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 0.0% (1.3481).

GBP/USD – Daily.

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On the daily chart, the pair's quotes continue to grow in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). However, when trading a pair, I recommend paying more attention to the lower charts. They are now more informative. Especially important are the two corridors that the quotes have already left.

GBP/USD – Weekly.

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On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed an increase to the second downward trend line. A rebound from it in the long term will mean a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a long fall in the British dollar's quotes.

Overview of fundamentals:

There were no reports or major events in the UK and US on Friday. The information background on this day was practically absent.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

On November 30, in America and the United Kingdom, the news calendars are empty again. Today, the information background will be absent, however, there may be news on the negotiation process between London and Brussels, which traders are waiting for.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

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The last two COT reports showed a fairly sharp increase in the number of open short contracts for the "Non-commercial" category of traders. This suggests that speculators continue to believe in the fall of the British dollar in the very near future. Over the past three weeks, speculators have been building up short contracts and closing long ones. In general, major players are more afraid of opening new contracts, so their total number is falling. This is seen in the table above. Thus, conclusion number one: major players are afraid of the uncertainty associated with the trade deal and the British economy, so they do not want to trade the pound more actively. Conclusion number two: speculators believe more in the fall of the pound than in its growth.

GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:

Today, I recommend selling the GBP/USD pair with a target of 1.3264, as previously it was closed under the ascending corridor on the 4-hour chart and under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart. I recommend to be careful with the pair's purchases now, as the COT report shows the faith of major players in the fall of the pound, and there is still no trade deal between London and Brussels.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.

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AUD/USD. December RBA meeting: preview

First trading day of the week and the last day of November: the US dollar index fell in today's Asian session, updating multi-month lows. Low demand for the greenback is inertial: the greenback noticeably lost ground on Friday against the background of the strengthening of the stock market and the general interest in risk. The situation did not change on Monday: investors still prefer risky assets, while the dollar cannot find a foothold.

This fundamental background made it possible for buyers of the AUD/USD pair to test the 74th figure: the aussie crossed the 0.7400 mark for the first time in three months. Traders failed to gain a foothold in this price area, so this can be considered as "reconnaissance in force". In the medium term, the fate of the growth trend will depend on two factors. First of all, we are talking about the level of demand for the US currency. If the greenback continues to fall in the entire market, then the Australian dollar can prove itself - if, in turn, the members of the Reserve Bank of Australia allow it. Tomorrow we will find out the results of the RBA's final meeting for this year: the next meeting of the central bank's members will take place in February.

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Traders are quite optimistic judging by the dynamics of AUD/USD. In anticipation of the December meeting, the aussie is growing in cross-pairs (for example, against the loonie or the kiwi). Most analysts share the optimism of investors - in their opinion, the central bank will take a "restrained-optimistic" position tomorrow, keeping all the parameters of monetary policy in the same form. This is facilitated by many factors - from the dynamics of economic indicators to the coronavirus situation in the country.

Key macroeconomic reports did not disappoint, at least. For example, Australian inflation, despite the coronavirus restrictions, still did not disappoint: the main indicators came out either at the level of forecasts, or exceeded the forecast values. The general consumer price index rose to 1.6% in quarterly terms (the forecast was slightly lower - 1.5%). On an annualized basis, the indicator came out of the negative area and reached 0.7% (fully in line with forecasts). The core inflation index did not disappoint either - the components as a whole came out in line with the general expectations.

But the labor market turned out to be an unexpected ally of the Australian currency. The growth rate of the number of employed jumped in October, reaching 178,000 (against the forecast of a decline of 29,000). This is the strongest growth rate since June this year, when Australia began to pull out of the lockdown. This result allows us to count on optimistic assessments from the RBA's members. Also in favor of the aussie's growth is the fact that the authorities of the state of South Australia decided to prematurely remove the strict restrictive measures that were introduced there due to the outbreak of the coronavirus. In general, the states and territories of Australia are now lifting almost all quarantine restrictions: there are almost no new cases of Covid-19 infection in the country.

It is worth noting that some analysts still entertain the possibility that the RBA may announce monetary policy easing tomorrow, while allowing the interest rate to fall into negative territory. In my opinion, these assumptions are unfounded. Firstly, the above-mentioned macroeconomic releases and representatives of the central bank themselves, in particular, Guy Debelle, who said that he doubted the effectiveness of negative rates as a tool for accelerating inflation and employment, speak in favor of maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. Secondly, it is worth recalling the rhetoric of the minutes of the last RBA meeting, in which the central bank rather positively assessed the prospects for the growth of the national economy and assured the market that it was not going to reduce the interest rate to the negative area.

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Most likely, the results of tomorrow's RBA meeting will be optimistic and neutral. The central bank may allow easing of monetary policy, but this warning will only be in the form of a standard phrase in an accompanying statement (that the central bank will maintain its current policy and, if necessary, expand the bond purchase program). Such a wording is unlikely to frighten investors, especially given the growth of key indicators. Therefore, with a high degree of probability, the aussie will continue to rise against the greenback tomorrow.

From a technical point of view, the situation is as follows. The pair is between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on all of the higher timeframes (from H4 and up), which indicates the priority of growth. On timeframes from H4 to W1 (that is, except for the monthly chart), the Ichimoku indicator formed a bullish Parade of Lines signal when the price is above all the indicator lines, including the Kumo cloud. This signal indicates bullish sentiment. The strongest resistance is at 0.7450, the upper monthly Bollinger Bands line, which coincides with the lower border of the Kumo cloud. But first, AUD/USD buyers need to gain a foothold in the 74th figure - the results of today's Asian session showed us that the pair meets resistance when it breaks the 0.7400 mark. In my opinion, the aussie will not only enter this price area in the medium term, but also cross the 0.7450 price barrier. Therefore, you can open longs either from current positions, or following the results of tomorrow's RBA meeting.

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Correction is expected in the market following strong growth this month

A sharp decline in futures for major US stock indices, followed by the European ones opened the last day of the month on the global markets. On the other hand, Asia's trading dynamics is clear. The US dollar remains under pressure due to the general continuation of demand for risky assets.

The decline in global index futures is most likely due to technical factors, as well as the completion of the third quarter. Nevertheless, this month is filled with growth. During which, there was a significant increase in demand for risky assets due to the creation of effective vaccines, which caused a clear growth in positive mood in the market.

On the other hand, reports that the Trump administration may blacklist China's leading microchip company SMIC, as well as the national offshore oil and gas producer CNOOC, could lead to a rising tension between Washington and Beijing even before Mr. Biden comes to power in January.

The US dollar remained under pressure amid strong demand for company shares and several stimulus programs. Its ICE index is approaching the local low from August 30 at 91.725 points and currently, the indicator is at 91.677 points.

It is likely that the dollar can get support locally if the decline in stock index futures is supported by the indices themselves. But again, it is also highly possible that the decline in the currency markets will resume, primarily due to the expected continuation of demand for risky assets after the correction in the stock markets.

Today, there was a publication of Manufacturing PMI data for November. The indicator increased from 51.4 points to 52.1 points, with the forecasted growth of 51.5 points. At the same time, China's non-manufacturing business activity index (PMI) for November was pleasing too. The index rose from the October value of 56.2 points to 56.4 points, against the expected decline of 56.0 points.

The values of the indicators indicate that the Chinese economy continues to confidently recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, thereby supporting the global economy.

Overall, we expect the US dollar to gradually weaken after some correction in the stock markets, which may lead to its limited growth.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading at a local high of 1.2000. However, a possible correction in the stock markets will cause the pair to locally decline to the level of 1.1900.

The NZD/USD pair is above the level of 0.7010. A further decline to 0.6945 is expected on the general correction wave in the markets.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP/USD on November 30, 2020

On Friday, the pair continued to trade downward from the resistance level (red bold line), testing the pullback level of 14.6% (blue dotted line). Today, the price may begin to move up. As per the economic calendar, dollar news is expected at 15:00 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may move upward from the level of 1.3313 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick) with the target at the resistance level 1.3394 (black bold line). Upon testing this level, the upward trend may continue with the next target at the upper fractal 1.3481 (daily candle from 01/09/2020) red dotted line.

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move upward with the target at the resistance level 1.3394 (black thick line). Upon testing this level, the upward trend may continue with the next target at the upper fractal 1.3481 (daily candle from 09/01/2020) presented in a red dotted line.

Another possible scenario: from the level of 1.3313 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick), the price may continue to move down with the target at 1.3226 - a 23.6% pullback level (blue dashed line). The upward trend may continue upon testing this level.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR/USD on November 30, 2020

After its rebound at the support level 1.1909 (blue bold line), the pair traded upward on Friday, closing above 1.1951 - an 85.4% pullback level (blue dashed line). Today, the price may continue to move up. As per the economic calendar, dollar news is expected at 15:00 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may continue to move upward from the level of 1.1962 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick) with the first target at the upper fractal 1.2010 (blue dotted line). In case of testing this line, there is a possibility of the continuation of the upward trend.

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may move upwards with the target at the upper fractal 1.2010 (blue dotted line). In case of testing this line, there is a possibility of the continuation of the upward trend.

Another possible scenario: from the level of 1.1963 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick), the price may move downwards with the target at the historical support level 1.1948 (blue dotted line). In case of testing this line, the price may move upwards with the target at the upper fractal 1.2010 (blue dotted line).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 30. COT reports. Pound volatility to rise this week as trade talks enter

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Last Friday we saw an excellent way to sell the British pound after breaking support at 1.3348. If you look at the chart, you will see how the bears achieved a real breakout of the 1.3348 level and even if you did not have time to enter short positions from it after the first breakout, the correction and this level being tested from the bottom up (as it should be) resulted in producing an excellent entry point to sell, which formed another wave of GBP/USD decline towards the end of the day and also brought traders around 50 points in profit.

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We are unlikely to be pleased with any news regarding Brexit at the beginning of the week, although there were rumors at the end of last week that negotiators might meet over the weekend in London. Given the intensity of the talks and the fact that the dates are coming to an end, the pound is expected to be quite volatile. Bulls need to regain resistance at 1.3348, getting the pair to settle at this level and testing it from top to bottom produces a fairly good signal for buying GBP/USD in order for it to rise to the 1.3395 area, which also acts as the upper border of the horizontal channel and is also where the pound stayed for the entirety of last week. A breakout and being able to settle above this range, along with good news on Brexit, will lead to a new wave of growth in the pound towards highs of 1.3453 and 1.3509, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound falls in the first half of the day, the bulls will try to protect support at 1.3294 again, but there is little hope for this level. Forming a false breakout there provides a signal to open long positions. If it is not active in this range, it is best to postpone buy positions until a new low near 1.3294 has been updated, or buy GBP/USD immediately after rebounding from the 1.3194 low, counting on an upward correction of 20-30 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Pound sellers need to defend resistance at 1.3348. Forming a false breakout on it will be the first signal to continue the downward momentum that appeared at the end of last week. A smooth reversal of the pound since November 24 also indicates the fact that bears are weighing on the pair each time, preventing it from updating local highs, which indicates their advantage over buyers. In case of a false breakout at 1.3348, the initial goal is to return support at 1.3294, settling below it will lead to a fairly quick sell-off of GBP/USD in the area of the 1.3251 low, while the bears' next target will be support at 1.3194. In case bears are not active in the middle of the 1.3348 channel, it is best to postpone selling until the test of its upper border at 1.3395. However, the next update of this level will be very dangerous for the current downward trend, therefore, you can only sell from there on the first test, immediately for a rebound, counting on a correction of 20-25 points within the day. Larger sales can be made only after the 1.3453 high has been updated.

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The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for November 17 saw a reduction in long positions and a sharp inflow of short positions. Long non-commercial positions declined from 27,872 to 27,454. At the same time, short non-commercial positions increased from 45,567 to 47,200. As a result, the negative non-commercial net position was -19,746 against -17,695 a week earlier, which indicates that the sellers of the British pound retains control and also shows their slight advantage in the current situation. Lack of clarity on the trade deal, together with the lockdown of the British economy in November, clearly does not add optimism and confidence to buyers of the pound.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates uncertainty regarding the pound's succeeding direction.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.3355 will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.3294 area will increase the pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 30. COT reports. Euro buyers too optimistic. Bears focused on returning

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

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The euro's huge growth from last Friday can hardly be tied to something specific, since important fundamental statistics were not released and it was hardly possible to expect such optimism from the market. Nevertheless, selling after a false breakout at 1.1929 in the morning did not materialize to the extent that I expected. For my 5-minute forecast last Friday afternoon, I marked the short entry point after the bulls failed to go above 1.1929. However, the pair hit the 1.1915 level each time and returned to 1.1929. The bulls have already taken this range towards the middle of the US session, testing it from top to bottom, which led to producing an entry point into long positions. By the end of the day, buyers of the euro reached the resistance of 1.1964, and the movement was more than 35 points. The bulls managed to reach the 1.1964 level in today's Asian session.

We can expect the euro to continue rising as long as trading is above this range. Forming a false breakout at the 1.1964 level in the first half of the day will be an additional signal to open long positions. However, I have to reiterate that there is no real reason for the euro to grow in the short term and the market is filled with speculators whose main goal is to pull the euro to the resistance of 1.2008, which will trigger a number of stop orders. I recommend taking profits around 1.2008, because if we do not receive good news, for example, on the Brexit trade deal, one can hardly count on a real breakout of this area, slightly above which is where the 1.2057 level is located. If the euro is under pressure in the first half of the day, and the bears pull the pair under the 1.1964 level, then you should not rush to open long positions. The optimal scenario would be to wait until support at 1.1929 has been tested, where the moving averages play on the side of the bulls, and open long positions there for a rebound, counting on a correction of 15-20 points within the day. Larger buyers will focus on protecting the 1.1855 support.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

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The sellers' initial task is to return the 1.1964 level to themselves, which they missed in today's Asian session. Despite all the negative data on the European economy, traders are in no hurry to sell the euro, hoping for the best. Getting the pair to settle below 1.1964 and testing it from the reverse side, from the bottom up, provides a more convenient entry point to short positions in hopes for a small downward correction to the support area at 1.1929, which is where the moving averages pass. However, updating this level will clearly not be enough to bring back the bear market. To be able to settle below 1.1929 will lead to a larger sale of the euro to the support area at 1.1885, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls turn out to be stronger and continue to push the pair up after the inflation data from Germany and Italy, then it is best not to rush to sell, but wait until the high in the resistance area of 1.2008 has been updated, where you can open short positions immediately on a rebound. If bulls are not active at this level, and given how the market behaves, this cannot be ruled out, I recommend opening short positions immediately for a rebound, counting on a correction of 15-20 points within the day, I recommend doing so only from a high of 1.2057.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 17 showed an increase in long and short positions. Long non-commercial positions rose from 202,374 to 203,551, while short non-commercial positions increased from 67,087 to 69,591. The total non-commercial net position fell from 135,287 to 133,960 a week earlier. Take note that the delta has been declining for eight consecutive weeks, which confirms the euro buyers' reluctance to enter the market in the current conditions. We can talk about the euro's recovery only when European leaders have settled differences with Poland and Hungary, and also when the UK negotiates a new trade deal with Brussels. Otherwise, you will have to wait until restrictive measures have been lifted, which were implemented due to the second wave of coronavirus in many EU countries.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates continued growth in the euro in the short term.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.1985 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border at 1.1915.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for November 30, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

Another higher high was made on the EUR/USD pair after the market had broken out of the main ascending channel. The new high is located at the level of 1.1976 and the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2000. The nearest technical support is located at 1.1914, 1.1908 and 1.1949. The strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook. The monthly candle is green and look very bullish, so the market participants should wait for another wave up next month.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2206

WR2 - 1.2083

WR1 - 1.2043

Weekly Pivot - 1.1921

WS1 - 1.1871

WS2 - 1.1758

WS3 - 1.1714

Trading Recommendations:

Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. The recent correction towards the level of 1.1612 seems to be completed and now market is ready for another wave up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for November 30, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GPB/USD pair keeps trading inside of the ascending channel after the rally has been capped at the level of 1.3395. The Pin Bar candlestick occurred on H4 time frame at the level of 1.3289 is still a valid indication of a bounce higher, so the market might test the level of 1.3395 again. The next target for bulls is still seen at the level of 1.3447(swing high) and then at 1.3512. The nearest technical support is located at 1.3306, 1.3295 and 1.3264. The strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3523

WR2 - 1.3460

WR1 - 1.3387

Weekly Pivot - 1.3326

WS1 - 1.3255

WS2 - 1.3195

WS3 - 1.3124

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is in the down trend on the monthly time frame, but the recent bounce from the low at 1.1411 made in the middle of March 2020 looks very strong and might be a reversal swing. In order to confirm the trend change, the bulls have to break through the technical resistance seen at the level of 1.3518. All the local corrections should be used to enter a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 11/30/2020

Today there is hope that the market will move off dead center and we will see at least some recovery. If the macroeconomic calendar was completely empty since last Wednesday, then today, data on the lending market will be published in the United Kingdom. Formally, the lending market should grow, which is pretty good. The volume of mortgage lending may increase by 4.3 billion pounds, and mortgage loans should be issued by as much as 84.5 thousand. Another thing is that we are likely to see a slowdown in the growth of the lending market, since it increased by 4.8 billion pounds in the previous month and as many as 91.5 thousand mortgage loans were issued. But the state of the real estate market, which perfectly reflects the dynamics of mortgage lending, is one of the main criteria for determining the investment attractiveness of the pound. So the slowdown in the lending market may play a bad joke on the pound and lead to its weakening. However, given how much more significant macroeconomic data was ignored last week, it is quite possible that the market will do the same today, and we will once again observe a dull stamp on the spot. And in this case, only the report of the United States Department of Labor, which is published only on Friday, can break this vicious circle.

Mortgage lending volume (UK):

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Amid low activity, the GBPUSD pair returned to the lower border of the 1.3300/1.3400 horizontal channel, where on a regular basis there was a stop followed by a price rebound.

As for volatility, a decline was observed last trading week, which affected the overall dynamics of the market.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, you can see that price fluctuations between the levels of 1.3300 and 1.3400 are regarded in the market as a rollback to the structure of the upward trend from November 3.

Based on the quote's current location, you can see the price rebound from the 1.3300 border in the direction of 50% deviation of the 1.3350 channel.

In case the price settles higher than 1.3050, we can expect a subsequent move to the upper limit of the 1.3400 channel. The alternative scenario considers price fluctuations in the 1.3300/1.3350 range.

From the point of view of a complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the minute and hour periods signal a "buy" due to the price rebounding from the 1.3300 border. The daily period is based on an upward trend with a buy signal.

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EUR/USD: US dollar's downward trend acts as euro's jump-off point

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It's been very tough for the US currency in the last few months and it is struggling to recover from a series of shocks caused by a number of factors. Experts expect the indicated currency to slowly recover, however, they are worried that this process may be delayed.

The dynamics of the US dollar is negatively influenced by factors such as COVID-19 together with its economic consequences, US presidential elections, as well as Fed's current monetary policy, aimed at actively printing money.

Investors' increased risk appetite, which was the strongest in the last two years, is another factor that caused the US dollar to decline. Currency strategists at Barclays Bank say that this currency will continue to be under pressure in the short term due to investor risk appetite amid hopes for effective vaccines. Nevertheless, they also stated that it is possible that the USD will strengthen and reach new levels in the medium term.

In turn, euro's growth provokes the situation in the EUR/USD pair. Last Friday, the single currency began to strengthen its positions, which continues to this day. Commerzbank analysts are sure that the euro will rise to the level of 1.2400 next month and further to 1.2500 in 2021. Currently, the indicated currency is moving towards its target, not paying attention to temporary failures. Today, the EUR/USD pair was trading near the range of 1.1969-1.1970, heading towards the intermediate level of 1.2000. Experts believe that breaking through this level will lead to new peaks.

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On another note, Commerzbank's currency strategists believe that ECB's monetary policy, particularly the possibility of reducing the interest rate next year, may limit euro's growth. Its further dynamics will be negatively affected by the withdrawal of dollar liquidity from the financial system.

However, investors and traders are hopeful that the ECB will not make sudden movements and drastically change its current policy before this year ends. Markets expect the regulator to expand the concessional lending program for banks (TLTRO), but this will not be definite for the euro. Analysts say that the euro usually reacts to such serious incentives as a change in the deposit rate or an asset purchase program, so now there is a slight change in its dynamics. The market is relying on the continuation of the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair this week and these expectations will most likely be reached.

Experts believe that the Eurocurrency in the EUR/USD pair is trying to take the lead, whose efforts pay off often. However, the US currency is not satisfied with being a jump-off point in the classic pair, so it tries to recover its position. And although its growth attempts sometimes don't end up successfully, it is actively gaining momentum. Therefore, many analysts are positive that the USD will reach what it wants in the incoming year.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 30, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

The market capitalization of Tether (USDT), a US dollar-anchored stablecoin, has increased in recent weeks, potentially fueling Bitcoin's recent rise that has pushed prices to near-historic highs.

Paolo Ardoino, who works as a dual CTO at Bitfinex and Tether, tweeted on Thursday that USDT's supply had increased by 1 billion in nine days, marking the second fastest expansion in its history. The record was set on September 4, 2020, when the supply of USDT in circulation increased by 1 billion in eight days.

Tether has a market capitalization of nearly 19 billion dollars, which means there are approximately $ 19 billion in circulation at a price of $ 1.00. According to CoinMarketCap data, Tether's market capitalization has almost quadrupled since the beginning of 2020.

With the current supply in circulation, Tether has the fourth largest market cap of any cryptocurrency. USDT and other so-called stablecoins offer fiat bridges to the cryptocurrency markets, thus minimizing price volatility and ensuring ease of redemption after the sale of digital assets. While USDT is purportedly backed by real dollar reserves, Tether has never fully audited its bank accounts. In 2019, it was found that the USDT was not entirely pegged to the dollar, but rather that the supply in circulation was only 74% hedged by cash and short-term securities.

Tether is also managed by the same management group that oversees Bitfinex, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world. It is alleged that Tether and Bitinex manipulated the 2017 bull market, although proving such a claim is difficult due to the complex nature of decentralized cryptocurrency markets.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the level of $483.30 and now is approaching the level of $600. So far the local high was made at the level of $592.29, because it hit the 38% Fibonacci retracement on the Weekly time frame. The momentum is strong and positive, so the breakout back above the $600 is just a matter of time. After the corrective pull-back is made, the market participants should continue the up trend and test the recent swing high located at the level of $620.52. The is no indication of the up trend reversal on the higher time frames and the monthly close looks very bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $771.53

WR2 - $696.42

WR1 - $633.11

Weekly Pivot - $557.97

WS1 - $496.01

WS2 - $420.20

WS3 - $358.90

Trading Recommendations:

The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $700, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. Moreover, the bulls has hit the 38% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $587.53 on the weekly time frame chart, but the current up trend is still valid. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $360 is broken.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on November 30

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

Last Friday, the euro deviated so much from the expected movement, as many expected it to continue declining due to the massive sell-offs in the currency. However, what happened is that the bears failed to drop the price below 1.1919 for three times, as a result of which the market reversed, leading to losses on short positions. Long positions from 1.1935, meanwhile, led to a large increase towards 1.1970 today during the Asian session.

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Trading recommendations for November 30

The Eurogroup has a scheduled meeting this week, during which they will discuss the issues concerning the financing mechanism of EU countries. Any good news on this matter may support the euro in climbing up the market.

Meanwhile, for macroeconomic statistics, data on Germany's inflation will be published. Unfortunately, it may have already moved to negative levels amid the current quarantine restrictions, therefore, the data could put pressure on the European currency.

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  • Open a long position when the euro reaches a quote of 1.1984 (green line on the chart) and then take profit at the level of 1.2015. However, growth will occur only if good inflation data comes out in Germany, and if the UK and the EU finally signs a post-Brexit trade agreement.
  • Open a short position when the euro reaches a quote of 1.1963 (red line on the chart) and then take profit around the level of 1.1933. However, do this only if data on Germany's inflation come out worse than the forecasts of economists.

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

Short positions from 1.3364 to 1.3323 brought rather good profit to the British pound last Friday. Traders managed to overcome the resistance level, which led to massive sell-offs of the currency. Aside from that, it would be better to bet on the fall of GBP / USD while there is no trade agreement yet between the UK and the EU.

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Trading recommendations for November 30

The pound will continue to move depending on the progress of Brexit negotiations. If it is announced again that the UK and the EU fail to make any concessions, the pressure on the currency could increase. To add to that, reports on the number of approved applications for a mortgage loan, as well as changes in the volume of the M4 money supply in the UK, will be published, and if the indicators show any deterioration, demand for the British pound would decrease further.

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  • Open a long position when the quote reaches the level of 1.3350 (green line on the chart) and then take profit around the level of 1.3396 (thicker green line on the chart). Good news on Brexit may strengthen the British pound.
  • Open a short position when the quote reaches the level of 1.3326 (red line on the chart) and then take profit around the level of 1.3282. Bad news on Brexit will resume the downward trend in the GBP/USD pair.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 30, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

The Ukrainian Ministry of Digital Transformation has released an online series aimed at educating citizens about cryptocurrencies, Blockchain and Bitcoin.

The program premiered on Wednesday and was created in cooperation with Binance, Hacken and Crystal Blockchain as part of the "Diia.Digital Education" program of the Ukrainian government.

The program consists of eight six to 12-minute episodes that explain the basic concepts of Cryptocurrency and Blockchain. The program is hosted by Andriy Onistrat, an entrepreneur and former banker who interviews guests working in the Blockchain industry.

The first episode, available on YouTube, introduces the concept of cryptocurrencies as a license-free transaction ledger that cannot be kept. Particular attention is paid to the concept of asset audibility, with Onistrat noting that the National Bank of Ukraine can always decide to significantly increase the supply of the hryvnia, the national currency of Ukraine. Ivan Paskar, Marketing Manager, Binance Ukraine, explains how Bitcoin maintains an unchanging, auditable asset.

The duo also talked about more complex ideas, mentioning Ethereum, smart contracts, and decentralized exchanges. Despite the beginner-friendly format of the program, Onistrat continued to ask Paskar a few more difficult questions - for example, how can the ideals of decentralization and freedom be reconciled with the identification requirements seen in many centralized exchanges.

Viewers receive a certificate of completion after reviewing all episodes. This initiative is in line with the Ukrainian government's drive to achieve digital competences in this country. Other programs offered by the ministry include 'Digital Teacher Lessons' and 'How to Become a YouTube Blogger'.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has bounced above all Fibonacci levels and the new local high is seen at the level of $18,592. The levels of $19,442, $19,000, $18,388, $18,000 and $17,644 will now act as a technical support again. The momentum is still strong and positive, so the bulls have a chance to hit the level of $19,000 again and then continue the up trend towards the new all time highs.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $22,987

WR2 - $21,189

WR1 - $19,745

Weekly Pivot - $17,922

WS1 - $16,614

WS2 - $14,848

WS3 - $13,390

Trading Recommendations:

Bitcoin is trading close to the yearly highs and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $20,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $15,000 is broken.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 30, 2020

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GBP/JPY has corrected to a low of 138.30 which is more than enough to set GBP/JPY up for the next push higher towards 139.84 and 140.32 on the way higher to the former peak at 142.72 and ultimately above here too.

A break above minor resistance at 138.88 will confirm the completion of the minor correction from 139.84 and a new impulsive rally being in motion.

Support is now seen at 138.30 and then at 138.00.

R3: 139.84

R2: 139.28

R1: 138.88

Pivot: 138.63

S1: 138.30

S2: 138.00

S3: 137.54

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP with an average of 138.35 and we have our stop placed at 137.95

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 30, 2020

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EUR/JPY is set to test the neckline resistance at 125.17. A break above here will call for a continuation towards the former peak at 127.02 and likely even closer to resistance at 129.06. We currently see a nice S/H/S bottom with a neckline at 125.17 dominating the short-term picture and in our view, it is only a question of time before the neckline resistance is broken and the next impulsive rally is triggered for a re-test of the former peak at 127.02.

Support is currently seen at 123.87 and then at 123.54.

R3: 125.50

R2: 125.17

R1: 124.75

Pivot: 124.22

S1: 123.87

S2: 123.54

S3: 123.20

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 123.46 with our stop placed at break-even.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 30, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro gained 49 points last Friday on small volumes and a thin market, its aspiration to enter the target range of 1.2010/40 continues to be realized with the risk of a reversal, which is indicated by the divergence with the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart.

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Also, on a weekly scale, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is declining in its own descending channel. At the same time, a range of three figures began to form, the growth within it was clearly speculative. We believe that the final days of this speculation are now passing.

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There is a strong rally on the four-hour chart, but Marlin is already in the overbought zone, the signal line of the oscillator has gone up from the range, and this may turn out to be a false exit. We are watching. It's too late to buy, it's too early to sell.

The EU has set another deadline for the Brexit talks, until December 4th. The parties will probably wait until the last one in order to complete this game with a decent face, even if there is nothing to talk about.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on November 30, 2020

AUD/USD

The aussie is rising this morning, under the impression of growth in counter-dollar currencies in the thin market from the second half of last week. But despite the growth, there is still a technical divergence with the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart. A reversal may occur in the 0.7380-0.7440 range. The first significant support is the MACD line at 0.7252, just below it is the technical record level of 0.7222, the 0.7222/52 range is likely to become a target.

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But the actual reversal is not yet available. The price has settled above the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart and Marlin is moving up in the zone of positive values.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold a meeting tomorrow, which may shake the optimism of speculators. The Australian stock market can no longer withstand the tension, falling 0.73% from the open amid the general rise in Asian markets (Nikkei 225 0.04%, China A50 1.32%).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 30, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen is strengthening against the dollar for the fifth day, which shows that it follows the 7-month downward trend. This morning the price has overcome the technical support of 104.05, and now the price is facing the 103.18 level - the November 6 low, which is the nearest target. The Marlin oscillator turned to the downside from the border of the growth area. The quote could fall further towards the second target of 102.35.

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The four-hour chart shows that the price has settled below the red balance indicator line, the Marlin oscillator is in the downward trend zone. The local trend is steady and decreasing. We are waiting for the pair to fall towards the designated target.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on November 30. COT report. Analysis of Friday. Recommendations for Monday

GBP/USD 1H

The GBP/USD pair started a round of downward movement on Friday, November 27, within which it left the rising channel. However, this is not the first change in trend in recent years. Previously, the pair has settled below the rising trend lines three times, afterwards the upward movement resumed anyway. Thus, buyers still held it in their hands despite the fact that most of the factors currently speak for the pound/dollar pair's fall. At the moment, the quotes have gone below the critical line, so we can expect a succeeding downward movement towards the Senkou Span B. An additional factor that speaks in favor of the dollar's growth is a double rebound from the 1.3397 level. In general, there are a huge number of factors in favor of the dollar, and not a single one in favor of the pound. Also, the fact that the pound is overbought should be added to this.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are directed to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe, which is absolutely logical after the price failed to overcome the 1.3397 level. In the near future, we expect quotes to fall to the Senkou Span B line, near which the pair's succeeding fate for the next few days will be decided.

COT report

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The GBP/USD pair rose by 135 points in the last reporting week (November 17-23), so we could expect an increase in the bullish mood of professional traders in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for this period. We mentioned that changes were minimal when analyzing the report on the euro currency. However, they are not minimal in the pound's case, they simply do not exist. The most important group of non-commercial traders opened 533 Buy-contracts (longs) and 616 Sell-contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. That is, the net position for this group of traders fell by less than 100 contracts. The total number of open contracts is about 90,000. Consequently, the conclusion suggests that professional traders were resting during the reporting week. In principle, both indicators show the same thing. The first one has changed direction very often in recent months (the green and red lines are constantly unfolding), which indicates that there is no definite trend and clear mood among professional players. The second shows the same lack of trend in the mood of non-commercial traders. Thus, all the data from the COT report say only one thing: we can not make predictions, since there are very few changes.

The fundamental backdrop for the pound remains upbeat. While the United States is moving away from several months of hassle associated with the elections, the UK and EU continue negotiations on a trade deal, the essence of which has not changed in recent months. All the same "serious disagreements remain between the parties", all the same "three issues remain unresolved", still London and Brussels blame each other and say that the deal depends on the opposite side. Traders have long believed that the deal would still be closed and that the British economy would not be knocked out in 2021. But faith alone will not go far. Sooner or later, optimism goes away and it seems that now traders are no longer ready to blindly buy the pound. As for other news and messages, now they do not matter at all. Markets cheerfully ignore the official, not too biased information about the course of the negotiations, so statistics and news regarding the coronavirus are of no interest to them at all.

No important reports or events from the European Union and America on Monday. Market participants will monitor any news related to negotiations on a trade deal. True, talks have just resumed and it is unlikely that we will receive new information right away on Monday. And given the ability of both sides to give in and negotiate, we may not get new information very soon. We have said more than once that if we take the entire fundamental background into account, then the pound has no reason to rise in price against the dollar. Thus, we are still leaning towards the pound's fall.

We have two trading ideas for November 30:

1) Buyers for the pound/dollar pair released the initiative and missed quotes below the Kijun-sen line (1.3330) and below the rising channel. Thus, we advise you to tradeupward while aiming for the resistance level of 1.3483 not earlier than a rebound from the Senkou Span B line or when the pair settles above the 1.3397 level. Take Profit in this case will be up to 70 points.

2) Sellers still managed to get the pair to settle below the rising channel, so they can finally move from words to deeds. We recommend selling the pair at this time with targets on the Senkou Span B line (1.3251) and the support level of 1.3191. Take Profit in this case can range from 60 to 120 points.

Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on November 30. COT report. Analysis of Friday. Recommendations for Monday

EUR/USD 1H

The EUR/USD pair continued to move up on the hourly timeframe on Friday, November 27. It looks impressive in the chart, but in fact it is not so strong. The pair's volatility is still rather low, but the rising movement seems assertive. A new upward channel appeared, within which the price is now moving. Thus, the initiative is now in the bulls' hands, as they continue to push the pair to the upside. However, we are still inclined to believe that the current upward movement is not justified. There is no particular reason for the euro to increase in price now. Moreover, most of the factors speak in favor of the fact that the euro should fall in price. Therefore, we do not believe that buyers will be able to move the pair above the 1.2000 psychological level. Bears should be on the alert and immediately attack if the price settles below the rising channel. We believe that the current levels are very attractive for selling the pair. Moreover, after rising by 1300 points in 2020, the US dollar has not normally corrected.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are directed to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe. The nearest target is the 1.1976 level. Thus, so far the lower chart does not provide any reason to expect that the short-term upward trend would end.

COT report

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The EUR/USD pair fell by 10 points in the last reporting week (November 17-23). That is, the price changes were again minimal. This indicates a low activity from traders, primarily large traders, whose deals are displayed in the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports. What did the new report show us? Very little. As in the previous week, professional traders opened a small number of new contracts during the week, only about 3,700. Considering that the total number of contracts for the "non-commercial" group is more than 300,000, this means that 3,700 is only about 1%. There is absolutely nothing to say about the mood of the major players. There were 700 more Buy-contracts (longs) that were opened compared to Sell-contracts (shorts). As you can imagine, these changes do not allow us to conclude that the mood of professional traders has sharply become more bullish or bearish. The net position remained practically unchanged. Thus, as a result, we can say that there are practically no changes, and the general picture of the state of affairs remains the same. That is, the data from the COT reports still leaves a high probability that the upward trend was completed near the 1.2000 level. Even despite the fact that now the pair's quotes have come close to this level. Nevertheless, the first indicator shows the movement of green and red lines towards each other (net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders), which means that the euro should be depreciating, and the previous trend is over. The net position of non-commercial traders (second indicator) has been signaling a decline for several months now. This means that major players are looking more and more towards selling the euro.

No important reports or events from the European Union and America on Friday. There was only a general fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair. But it did not have any particular impact on the mood of traders. There is practically no news from America now. There has been

news from the European Union, but market participants ignore those. It seems that only a few players have been pushing the market to the upside, and the rest do not understand what is happening.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a speech on Monday, aside from that, no other events listed in the calendar. Thus, everything will depend on what exactly Lagarde will say. Based on her last speeches, we can conclude that she will not say anything optimistic. However, judging by the fact that the euro is getting more expensive again, the markets do not need optimistic statements. The European economy may face serious problems in the near future due to the second wave of COVID-2019 and the lockdown, but traders do not care about this fact at all. Even the threat of a conflict between the EU members does not frighten traders and does not discourage them from buying euros at this time.

We have two trading ideas for November 30:

1) Buyers continue to move up after breaking through the resistance area of 1.1886-1.1912. Therefore, you are advised to continue trading upward with the targets at the resistance levels of 1.1976 and 1.2011 as long as the price is within the rising channel. Take Profit in this case will be no more than 45 points.

2) Bears are letting go of the pair more and more every day, nevertheless, the current fundamental background allows them to count on the pair's reversal to the downside soon. Thus, you are advised to open new sell orders while aiming for the Kijun-sen line (1.1881), in case the price settles below the rising channel. Take Profit in this case can be up to 45 points.

Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. November 30. London and Brussels resumed negotiations. Dominic Raab says this week will be

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 164.1826

The British pound started a new round of corrective movement on Friday, November 27. However, at the moment, it is not clear what this round of correction means. Is it just a correction, after which the upward trend will resume? Or market participants have finally stopped believing in a trade agreement, which is highly likely not to happen? One way or another, the quotes of the pound/dollar pair have fixed below the moving average line, thus, the trend has changed to a downward one. Therefore, the downward movement may continue for some time. We have been waiting for several weeks in a row for the pound to start a prolonged fall. We believe that the British currency is overbought and most importantly - completely unreasonably overbought. However, Friday's movement does not make it possible to conclude that a new downward trend has begun. It's still too weak.

Although market participants do not pay any attention to the statements of Boris Johnson, Michel Barnier, Ursula von der Leyen, and David Frost regarding the progress in the negotiation process, it is the topic of trade negotiations that remains the most important for the UK, the British economy and the British pound. In principle, since November 15, all traders are waiting for both sides to make a statement on the outcome of the negotiations. Recall that it was on November 15 that the negotiations were supposed to end to have time to ratify the agreement in the two parliaments later if there was one at all. On the weekend, fresh news was received from London. On November 28, Michel Barnier arrived in London to resume face-to-face talks. In other words, the negotiations are continuing, although all conceivable deadlines have already been violated. At the weekend, Michel Barnier said that "we are very close to the moment: either yes or no". A similar statement was made by his British counterpart David Frost, who also does not know whether there will be an agreement in the end. Barnier also said that "significant differences remain" between the parties, however, we have heard this many times before.

It also became known over the weekend that Barnier made an offer to Frost regarding the most pressing issue of fishing. It is reported that Barnier offers to return from 15% to 18% of the value of fish stocks that are caught by European fleets in British waters. The offer is expected to bring in more than 100 million euros for the British fishing industry. What London thinks about this is still unknown, but we believe that this proposal will be rejected. 10 Downing Street has repeatedly stated that they want to have full control over their territorial waters. However, Boris Johnson himself still makes statements like: "There are significant and important differences that still need to be overcome, but we continue to work on this. The probability of a deal is largely determined by our friends and partners in the EU." That is, the British Prime Minister continues to "throw the ball" to half of the field of the European team as if to show that everything depends on them. And the EU does the same when the ball is on its side. Both sides have consistently stated that significant differences remain, and no one has ever said that there are fewer problematic issues. "It is late, but a deal is still possible, and I will continue to say this until it becomes clear that this is not the case," said British negotiator David Frost.

At the same time, it became known that next week is likely to be the last in the negotiations. This was stated by British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab when asked about the deadline. "This is a very important, really last week, when some further delays are still possible," Raab said.

Thus, it is still unclear whether there will be an agreement in the end or not. It turns out that the British pound has grown in recent weeks solely on the belief of traders in a "bright future" (a trade deal). Because there was no economic reason to buy the pound. The British economy is reeling and swaying from side to side before it is dealt the final blow in the last 5 years. This blow is Brexit, a "hard" Brexit. But even if London and Brussels manage to reach an agreement, this does not mean that the British economy will not shrink in 2021. This will happen anyway. The only question is how hard the blow will be to the British economy. With a deal, it will be tolerable; without a deal, it will be terrifying. That's the difference. And of course, do not forget about the pandemic, the second "lockdown" and the consequences of these events in the Foggy Albion. Thus, the pound could grow all this time only due to the belief of market participants in the deal. Now, therefore, we need to understand whether the traders' faith has run out. London and Brussels can negotiate indefinitely, and we believe that they will continue in 2021. The pound can't grow all this time while the negotiations are going on.

From a technical point of view, the pound/dollar pair is only slightly fixed below the moving average line. Thus, the downward movement may continue, but we remind you that in the last two months, the price regularly went below the moving average line, and then very quickly returned to the area above the moving average. Therefore, something similar may be happening now. Markets do not respond adequately to the fundamental background, ignore the macroeconomic background, COT reports do not bring any clarity to what is happening, and the technical picture is often contradictory.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 98 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Monday, November 30, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3215 and 1.3411. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top signals a possible resumption of the upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3306

S2 – 1.3245

S3 – 1.3184

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3367

R2 – 1.3428

R3 – 1.3489

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started a new round of downward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to open short positions with targets of 1.3445 and 1.3215. You can keep them open until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. It is recommended to trade the pair again for an increase with targets of 1.3411 and 1.3428 if the price is fixed back above the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. November 30. Warsaw and Budapest are firing a "warning shot" at the EU authorities over the

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 164.1826

The fifth trading day for the EUR/USD pair was again in an upward movement. Although the volatility in recent weeks is quite low, as can be seen from the volatility table below, nevertheless, the upward movement is still quite stable. In recent weeks, we have repeatedly been surprised by the fact that the British pound is showing growth against the dollar. We have repeatedly said that there were no fundamental reasons for strengthening the pound. Now, it seems that the European currency has caught the same disease. At a time when America was overwhelmed by all sorts of crises, the US dollar simply could not rise in price, which was logical. During the US election period, when many were skeptical of the dollar, it simply did not become more expensive. Now, when the situation in the United States has more or less stabilized, the US dollar for some reason began to fall again. Now, even theoretically, it is difficult to find a reason why the US currency is under pressure. Of course, under democratic presidents, the US currency often becomes cheaper than more expensive. However, this is a long-term issue. It is unlikely that investors and traders rushed to get rid of the US currency as soon as they learned that the next president will be Joe Biden.

The most interesting thing is that only disappointing reports are coming from Europe right now. No, there is no outright negative. But at the same time, there is no positive. The EU has already faced the challenge of vetoing the seven-year budget and the post-pandemic recovery fund by Poland and Hungary. If at first, this problem did not seem to be a problem at all, because it is unlikely that the authorities of the EU and its two members could not agree. However, now, after some time, it becomes clear that a quick and painless agreement will not work. Warsaw and Budapest are demanding that the EU authorities review legislation that allows for cuts in funding from the general budget based on non-compliance with the rule of law directives. Recall that the problem is that Brussels accuses the Polish and Hungarian authorities of discrimination against political opponents, violations of the principle of democracy, and infringement of the rights of sexual minorities. The accused, on the other hand, believe that they have nothing wrong with democracy, and the proposed new legislation is proposed to force them to recognize same-sex marriages and accept refugees from the South. However, the EU's key accusation against Poland and Hungary is an attempt by local authorities to subdue the judicial systems. This violation, according to the EU, implies the development of corruption and, as a result, the theft of money from the European budget.

However, as political analysts say, Budapest and Warsaw are unlikely to get anything out of this political demarche. The problem is that at this time it is proposed to consider and vote for a package consisting of the budget, the recovery fund, and new legislation in its entirety. This requires the approval of all EU member states. However, in certain cases, the approval of 55% of EU countries (15 or more out of 27) is sufficient to pass a certain bill. For example, the issue of new legislation requires the approval of at least 15 countries of the alliance. And if consent is obtained, the bill will be passed, despite the protests of Poland and Hungary. Thus, Brussels and Berlin can now simply divide the package of bills and vote on each separately. Therefore, if the "rule of law mechanism" is adopted, Poland and Hungary can veto it as much as they want. They will only achieve this by blocking their access to the 2021-2027 budget and the recovery fund.

However, this also cannot be misunderstood in Warsaw and Budapest themselves. Lawyers from these countries probably know EU law and understand that if the alliance wants to adopt a new compliance mechanism, it will accept it. Accordingly, the purpose of vetoing can only be a "warning shot" to the European authorities. Warsaw and Budapest seem to show that if the "compliance mechanism" is adopted, then in the future they will block any other bills that require the unanimous approval of all EU member states. Thus, a conflict is brewing in the European Union and now it is not clear how it will end.

Negative economic news is also coming from the EU. Over the past two weeks, Christine Lagarde, the ECB President, has made five or six speeches, and each time her speeches have been very pessimistic. The head of the ECB noted several times that in December the ECB will expand the package of stimulus measures, that the EU economy will again begin to experience problems at the end of 2020 due to a new wave of pandemic and a new "lockdown". Thus, the EU's GDP is likely to contract again in the fourth quarter. Experts have already estimated that in the fourth quarter, the economy may lose about 3%. This is the kind of news that has been coming in from the EU recently. Let's return to the question that we asked at the beginning of the article: on what grounds is the euro currency growing now?

As we have said more than once, any currency can grow with absolutely any fundamental background. Just often, the fundamental background and the nature of the movement of a particular currency coincide. However, many patterns were broken in 2020. For example, for most of the year, market participants completely ignore macroeconomic statistics. Moreover, the pandemic has made adjustments in all areas. Thus, we are not personally surprised by the fact that the euro is now growing again. Before that, it had been standing in one place for 4 months, although the trader had reasons for more active trading. Therefore, we only remind you once again that any fundamental hypothesis requires technical confirmation.

From a technical point of view, the euro/dollar pair continues to move to the previous high just above $1.20. We still believe that there is nothing for the pair to do above this level. This is supported by both the COT and foundation reports. Nevertheless, the "technique" now remains on the side of the European currency and the bulls for the EUR/USD pair. Therefore, we continue to recommend trading higher.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of November 30 is 66 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1897 and 1.2029. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a round of corrective movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1902

S2 – 1.1841

S3 – 1.1780

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1963

R2 – 1.2024

R3 – 1.2085

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its upward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in buy orders with the target of the Murray level of "5/8"-1.2024 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair is fixed below the moving average with targets of 1.1841 and 1.1780.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade GBP/USD on November 30? Analysis of Friday deals. Getting ready

Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair

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For the GBP/USD pair, the price has settled below the upward trend line, which now speaks in favor of further downward movement. Buyers of the pair failed to overcome the 1.3397 level, from which the quotes rebounded twice. Thus, technical factors now speak in favor of the pound's succeeding fall. And not only technical factors speak in favor of this option. The fact is that the pound has been growing in price for a fairly long period of time. To be more precise, from September 23rd. Moreover, it is still quite difficult to say why the pound has been increasing for so long and as a result, it has grown by as much as 700 points. It is one thing if it was a correction against the previous fall. But the current movement is too strong for a correction. Of course, formally 99% of the main movement is also a correction. However, in our case, the upward movement was still too strong. And most importantly, not justified, from a fundamental perspective.

The fundamentals were rather weak last week. The UK services PMI fell, and no other macroeconomic reports were released in Great Britain. There have been several important reports in America and we can't say they were disappointing. For example, GDP was 33.1% in the third quarter, and orders for durable goods were higher than forecasted. But the pound rose in price anyway, although the most important fundamental topic for it is still the negotiations on a trade deal with the European Union, which is still not in favor of the pound. Last week, talks were put on hold, then resumed, then continued and there were still no results. London and Brussels are simply continuing talks that were supposed to end on the 15th November deadline. Both sides also continue to negotiate in the press, regularly accusing each other of unwillingness to concede, then declaring that an agreement is possible.

No major reports scheduled for release in both the UK and America on Monday. Nevertheless, traders may continue to wait for information regarding trade talks between London and Brussels, since this is still the most important topic for the pound. If we receive information that negotiations have reached a deadlock again, this could contribute to the pound's fall. We are not expecting any important news from America at this time.

Possible scenarios for November 30:

1) Traders failed to overcome the 1.3397 level, afterwards the price fell below the trend line. Therefore, long deals are irrelevant now. You need to wait for a new upward trend to appear or until the 1.3397 level has been overcome in order to expect an upward trend to form.

2) Short deals, from our point of view, are more convenient now, and for a number of reasons. The upward trend line has been overcome, the pound has been growing for a long time, the fundamental background is still not in favor of buyers. Thus, we believe that the downward movement will extend until next week. In order to be able to open short positions, novice traders are advised to wait for the upward correction, afterwards a new sell signal from MACD. Aim for support levels 1.3281 and 1.3242.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on November 30? Analysis of Friday deals. Getting ready

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair went back to moving up last Friday, and updated its previous local high, so we concluded that the rising movement has returned. Last Friday, we advised beginners to trade bullish if a new buy signal from MACD appears, but we also warned about the increased risks of such a transaction. Fortunately, the buy signal was not false and traders could earn 20-30 points. Current volatility levels are not too high, so 20-30 points is an absolutely normal result. The upward trend line has been rebuilt, so it now supports bull traders again. The pair ended Friday near the day's highs, so on Monday traders need to wait for a downward correction and, if the price remains above the trend line, re-consider options for opening buy orders. Despite the fact that the euro/dollar pair left the 1.1700-1.1900 horizontal channel, we still advise you to be wary of the upward movement. From our point of view, it is not fully justified now.

No important publications and news in America and the European Union last Friday. At least the US did not provide any particularly significant information. Nevertheless, the European currency has been actively growing in price for several days now and at this time it is very difficult to find out as to what this may be connected with. This is because there are several rather serious problems brewing in the European Union that may affect the European economy. Firstly, Poland and Hungary vetoed the EU budget for 2021-2027 and the Coronavirus Pandemic Recovery Fund. Secondly, the lockdown will inevitably lead to a contraction in business activity and the economy in the fourth quarter. There are no such problems yet in America, since a new hard quarantine was not introduced in this country. However, the euro is still rising despite all of these facts, which is a little strange.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is set to deliver a speech on Monday. Her previous speeches were of a pronounced black color. Lagarde expressed concerns about the prospects for the economy due to the increase in the number of cases in October-November, as well as because of the lockdown. She also announced the expansion of stimulus measures in December. Thus, the chief economist of the EU believes that the European economy will start to experience serious problems again this winter. Most likely, her rhetoric will remain unchanged, which means that you should not expect anything optimistic

Possible scenarios for November 30:

1) Long positions are currently relevant since the upward trend line has been rebuilt. Now, in order to be able to open new long positions, you need to wait for a new round of downward correction. The price rebounding from the trend line or a buy signal from the MACD (after the indicator is discharged to the zero level) can be used for new buy positions on the euro with targets at 1.1969 and 1.1997. We do not see the pair moving above the 1.2000 level yet.

2) You are advised to not trade for a fall at this time. Only when the price settles below the trend line on Monday, which will lead to a change in the short-term trend to a downward trend. In this case, we recommend opening sell orders with a target near the 1.1903 level, which has been the upper border of the horizontal channel for a long time.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the GBP/USD pair for the week of November 30-December 4. New COT (Commitments of Traders) report. The pound

GBP/USD – 24H.

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The GBP/USD currency pair has increased by about 20 points over the past week, which is a very weak volatility value for this pair. However, this is the final value of the week. Maybe the situation was different for each individual day? No. Volatility remained fairly low all week. At the same time, an upward trend continued in the long term, which has long caused surprise and doubts about its validity. However, as we have repeatedly warned, this is a currency market, and no one can predict its behavior by 100%. The fundamental background may be completely against the pound, but if market participants buy it (for any reason), it will grow. Thus, we always warn that any fundamental theory and hypothesis must be confirmed by "technology". As long as this is not the case, no matter what the "foundation", it is recommended to trade according to the trend, that is, to increase. The previous local high has not been updated yet (1.3481), so there are still theoretical chances of a new downward trend starting. Also, we would not particularly count on the "double top" pattern.

COT report.

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During the last reporting week (November 17-23), the GBP/USD pair increased by 135 points, thus, in the COT report for this period, we could expect an increase in the "bullish" mood of professional traders. Analyzing the report on the euro currency, we said that the changes are minimal. In the case of the pound, they are not minimal, they simply do not exist. During the reporting week, the most important group of non-commercial traders opened 533 buy and 616 sell contracts. In other words, the net position for this group of traders decreased by less than 100 contracts. The total number of open contracts is about 90,000. Therefore, the conclusion is obvious: during the reporting week, professional traders had a rest. In principle, both indicators show the same thing. The first one has changed direction very often in recent months (the green and red lines are constantly unfolding), which indicates that there is no definite trend and a clear mood among professional players. The second one shows the same lack of trend in the mood of non-commercial traders. Thus, all the data in the COT report now says only one thing: no forecasts can be made, since there are very few changes.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair remained absolutely discouraging last week. It is only necessary to say that there was no news about the results of the negotiations between London and Brussels. That is, in principle, now we can conclude that this topic is not the main one for the pound/dollar pair. All the same, the British currency has shown growth in recent weeks, which is completely inconsistent with the risks that a "divorce" with the European Union without a trade agreement carries for the British economy. Andrew Bailey spoke about this, and many experts in the field of macroeconomics and many analysts speak about it. However, the pound still continues to grow. Hence the conclusion: traders either ignore the fundamental background or blindly believe that a deal between the EU and Britain will be concluded in any case. We do not undertake to judge whether these hopes are justified. From our point of view, the probability of reaching an agreement on this issue is still very low, since "serious differences remain" in the most important issues: fishing, fair competition and dispute resolution. Thus, the deal can be agreed upon by 95%, but without resolving these issues, it will not be signed. And most importantly, the parties have very little time left if they want to have time to ratify the agreement before the New Year, that is, before the end of the "transition period". Well, of course, not without mutual reproaches on both sides. According to London, the European Union does not want to give in and encroaches on the independence of Great Britain, trying to tie it as much as possible to its legislation. According to Brussels, Britain does not want to concede, but wants to retain all the privileges of EU membership, while not being in the EU. Thus, the parties still cannot agree.

Trading plan for the week of November 30-December 4:

1) The upward movement has continued in recent weeks, although the resumption of the upward trend is still questionable. Until the maximum of September 1 is overcome, the current upward movement is interpreted as a correction. Most of all, the fundamental background continues to confuse, which absolutely does not support the British pound. Thus, for the time being, upward trends remain more preferable for working out on lower time frames.

2) Sellers now remain quite weak. The COT report shows minimal changes and minimal activity of major players from time to time. Sellers need to return the pair below the Ichimoku cloud in order to expect a downward trend to form again in the long term. We are still inclined to believe that the fall in the pound will resume and will be quite strong. But this hypothesis, like any other, needs technical confirmation.

Explanation of the illustrations:

Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger bands, MACD.

Support and resistance areas – areas that the price has repeatedly bounced from before.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts – shows the net position size of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the EUR/USD pair for the week of November 30-December 4. New COT (Commitments of Traders) report. The growth

EUR/USD – 24H.

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Over the past week, the EUR/USD pair has grown by more than 100 points. The pair's volatility increased slightly after the past week and a very remarkable event happened – the pair again tried to overcome the upper line of the side channel of 1.1700-1.1900. You can even say that it was successful. If in the middle of the week the quotes were pushing and stomping around the upper line of this channel, breaking it by 5-10 points, then on Friday a fairly powerful upward movement followed, which significantly increased the probability of forming a new upward trend. However, we remind traders that quotes have already left this channel twice and also rushed to the level of 1.2000 and then returned to the side channel again. Thus, we believe that this upward movement will not necessarily take the form of a new trend. Moreover, the fundamental background is now such that it is impossible to draw a clear conclusion.

COT report.

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During the last reporting week (November 17-23), the EUR/USD pair declined by 10 points. That is, price changes were again minimal. This indicates a low activity of traders, primarily major traders, whose transactions are displayed in the COT reports. What did the new report show us? It showed us very little. As a week earlier, professional traders opened a small number of new contracts during the week - only about 3,700. Given that the total number of contracts in the "Non-commercial" group is more than 300 thousand, that 3,700 is only about 1%. There is absolutely nothing to say about the mood of the major players either. Buy-contracts were opened for 700 units more than sell-contracts. As you can imagine, these changes do not allow us to conclude that the mood of professional traders has sharply become more "bullish" or "bearish". The net position has not changed much. Thus, as a result, we can say that there are practically no changes, and the overall picture of the situation remains the same. That is, the COT report data still leaves a high probability that the upward trend was completed around the level of 1.2000. Even though the pair's quotes are now very close to this level back. However, the first indicator continues to show the movement of the green and red lines towards each other (net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders), which means that the euro currency should become cheaper, and the previous trend is over. The net position of non-commercial traders (the second indicator) has been signaling a decline for several months. This means that major players are looking more and more towards selling the euro currency.

What can we say about the fundamental background of the past trading week? It was quite weak. At the very least, we can't single out any events that affected the course of trading. There were few macroeconomic reports, and most of them were ignored again. In general, there are no changes in the state of the US and EU economies. The heads of the US and EU central banks continue to look to the future with a high degree of fear, even despite the creation of a vaccine against the "coronavirus". Both Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde insist that the economy requires new stimulus measures and call on governments to help, as well as prepare to expand their programs to support the economy. Thus, it is impossible to conclude that the situation in Europe or America has changed, so the euro currency has again started to enjoy high demand. Rather, the opposite is true. The fundamental background has not changed much over the past week, so it is quite strange for us to observe the resumption of the fall of the US currency when there are no good reasons for this. We were waiting for a new fall in the dollar for 2 or 3 weeks when the United States was completely under the water of a political crisis that also threatened to turn into a constitutional one. However, now in America, on the contrary, there is a lull. Donald Trump has agreed to hand over power. The current President lost all the courts. Of course, there are certain concerns about his activities in the last 2 months, but so far Trump has not done anything that could harm the US economy or the dollar. Moreover, we believe that it is the euro currency that looks less attractive at this time since the economy will shrink due to the "lockdown" in Europe.

Trading plan for the week of November 30-December 4:

1) The pair's quotes are quite a big step towards a new upward trend (or a resumption of the old one), however, we still strongly doubt that the quotes will be able to go above the level of 1.2000. Both the fundamental background and COT reports speak against further growth of the euro. However, if there are no technical reasons to expect a fall (and there are none now), then you should expect growth and trade on the lower charts for an increase.

2) To be able to sell the EUR/USD pair, you need to at least wait for the price to consolidate below the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines. But even in this case, the potential for a downward movement will be limited to the level of 1.1700. An upward trend has now formed on the lower timeframes, so short positions are not relevant.

Explanation of the illustrations:

Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – target levels when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Ichimoku indicators, Bollinger bands, MACD.

Support and resistance areas – areas that the price has repeatedly bounced from before.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts – shows the net position size of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts – the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com