GBP/USD. November 30. COT report. The British pound is holding near annual highs. Traders expect a strong fall, especially



According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed another reversal in favor of the US currency and consolidated under another upward trend corridor. Prior to this, the British dollar quotes have already been fixed under the trend lines and corridors several times, however, the mood of traders did not change to "bearish". Now we see approximately the same picture. The pair's quotes have already made a reversal in favor of the British dollar and again began the process of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.3375). Very chaotic movements that have nothing to do with the current information background. And the information background for the British does not change. Almost no news is coming from America right now. And from the UK, there is an endless stream of messages about the resumption or continuation of trade negotiations. There are no reports that the parties are approaching a deal, or that there is progress on the "fishing issue". On the contrary, both Brussels and London regularly state that they are ready for a no-deal Brexit and will not conclude an agreement at any cost. However, the talks are continuing, although Boris Johnson has repeatedly stated that November 15 is the deadline for completing the negotiations. It is very difficult to understand how long the negotiations will last.



On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a consolidation under the ascending corridor, as well as on the hourly chart. Thus, the mood of traders should have changed to "bearish" and the pair's quotes began to fall. However, we don't see anything like this yet. Moreover, a bullish divergence is brewing in the CCI indicator, which may allow the pair to perform a reversal in favor of the British and resume the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 0.0% (1.3481).

GBP/USD – Daily.


On the daily chart, the pair's quotes continue to grow in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). However, when trading a pair, I recommend paying more attention to the lower charts. They are now more informative. Especially important are the two corridors that the quotes have already left.

GBP/USD – Weekly.


On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed an increase to the second downward trend line. A rebound from it in the long term will mean a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a long fall in the British dollar's quotes.

Overview of fundamentals:

There were no reports or major events in the UK and US on Friday. The information background on this day was practically absent.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

On November 30, in America and the United Kingdom, the news calendars are empty again. Today, the information background will be absent, however, there may be news on the negotiation process between London and Brussels, which traders are waiting for.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:


The last two COT reports showed a fairly sharp increase in the number of open short contracts for the "Non-commercial" category of traders. This suggests that speculators continue to believe in the fall of the British dollar in the very near future. Over the past three weeks, speculators have been building up short contracts and closing long ones. In general, major players are more afraid of opening new contracts, so their total number is falling. This is seen in the table above. Thus, conclusion number one: major players are afraid of the uncertainty associated with the trade deal and the British economy, so they do not want to trade the pound more actively. Conclusion number two: speculators believe more in the fall of the pound than in its growth.

GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:

Today, I recommend selling the GBP/USD pair with a target of 1.3264, as previously it was closed under the ascending corridor on the 4-hour chart and under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart. I recommend to be careful with the pair's purchases now, as the COT report shows the faith of major players in the fall of the pound, and there is still no trade deal between London and Brussels.


"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.

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