GBP/USD. May 3. Results of the day. Traders ignored the NonFarm Payrolls, but pay attention to the ISM index

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 42p - 125p - 123p - 73p - 64p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 85p (86p).

The week ends for the GBP/USD pair with a very moderate decline and the development of the critical line. The decline is small, even despite an impressive block of macroeconomic data from the United States. Almost all reports were in favor of the US currency, but this was not the reason for traders to increase purchases of the US currency. It should also be noted that the business activity index in the UK services sector also did not attract any attention of traders, although it did not reach the forecast value, still exceeded the mark of 50.0. From a technical point of view, on the contrary, everything turns out perfectly. The pair worked out the Kijun-Sen line, failed to overcome it and therefore can resume the upward movement, which is very illogical from a fundamental point of view. It should also be noted the low correlation between the euro and the dollar in recent days. The euro falls with pleasure and without interference, the pound – with great difficulty. Just a few minutes ago, it became known that the business activity index in the US ISM services sector was significantly worse than the forecast (55.5 against 57.0), which caused purchases of the British pound and euro. Thus, the week still ends for the pound sterling favorably and is absolutely logical from a technical point of view. However, we continue to insist that there is still no significant fundamental background for the long-term strengthening of the pound.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair rebounded from the critical line and, thus, completed the downward correction. Therefore, long positions remain relevant to the objectives at 1.3084 and 1.3108.

Sell orders can only be considered after the price is fixed below the Kijun-Sen line with the first target at 1.2939. However, this option should be considered as early as next week.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. May 3. Results of the day. Inflation in the eurozone is accelerating but still remains below 2.0%

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 63p - 42p - 53p - 78p - 48p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 57p (56p).

On the last trading day of the week, a sufficiently large amount of macroeconomic data was published. First, it is inflation in the EU, which accelerated from 1.4% to 1.7% y/y. Unfortunately for the euro, this report did not provide any support to it, most likely due to the fact that the inflation value still remains below the target level set by the ECB. Secondly, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector was published in the States. This number seriously exceeded the predicted value (263,000 against 185,000). However, the US dollar, which, in principle, is becoming more expensive all day, cannot be said to have received significant support from traders. The unemployment rate also pleased investors, falling from 3.8% to 3.6%. Only the average wage showed a smaller increase than experts expected (+3.2% against the forecast of +3.3%). In general, we can say that all the news was in favor of the dollar. Thus, we expect that the pair will continue to decline, unless the latest reports of the day (indices of business activity in the US services sector) fail. On Monday morning, thus, you can also expect a downward movement, as today the European stock exchanges were deprived of the opportunity to work out all the information from the States. The trend for the instrument remains downward, the US economy still looks stronger compared to the European one. Therefore, the balance of power between currencies does not change at all. Only from time to time do individual reports support the euro, and only for a short time. Thus, we believe that the fall of the pair will continue in the medium term.

Trading recommendations:

The pair EUR/USD continues its downward movement. The nearest target for short positions is the level of 1.1100. The reversal of the MACD indicator to the top will signal an upward correction round.

Long positions are recommended to be considered not earlier than fixing the pair above the critical line and the Senkou Span B line. In this case, the trend for the instrument will change to an upward one, but this is unlikely to happen today.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR and GBP: the euro and the pound remain under pressure, despite the positive data on inflation and services

Despite a good increase in inflationary pressure, which was higher in the eurozone than economists' forecasts, the European currency continued to decline against the US dollar, under pressure after a series of weak fundamental statistics released during this week.

A number of experts note that the lack of demand for the euro, after the release of inflation data, was due to the fact that traders took into account the current inflation in quotations even before the publication of the report.

According to the data, annual inflation in the eurozone in April 2019 came even closer to the target level of 2%, which was set by the European Central Bank. The statistics agency report states that the eurozone's preliminary CPI in April rose 1.7% over the same period last year, after rising 1.4% in March. Economists had expected the index to grow by 1.5%.

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Core inflation, which does not take into account volatile categories of goods, in the eurozone in April amounted to 1.2% against 0.8% in March.

Current data suggest that the European Central Bank is likely to refuse additional incentives during the June meeting.

However, it is necessary to note that the general inflation growth, as before, was due to the acceleration of energy prices, which is a very volatile indicator.

During his speech, President of the Central Bank of Germany Jens Weidmann said that the European Central Bank should not postpone returning to a more normal monetary policy. This must be done immediately when economic conditions permit. Weidmann is confident that the current slowdown in the German economy is temporary, focusing on some recovery in personal consumption.

A supporter of a tougher policy — the president of Germany's central bank — reiterated that extraordinary monetary stimulus measures cannot be applied every time economic growth slows down, as all this can lead to an increase in unjustified risks and negative side effects.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the further downward movement will depend on the support level of 1.1150, the breakthrough of which will push risky assets further down to the area of 1.1110 and 1.1040.

The British pound fell slightly after the data on the index of purchasing managers for the services sector in the UK, which rose in April but was worse than economists' forecasts.

According to the data, despite the growth of activity in the UK services sector, the pace remains restrained. Thus, the index was 50.4 points in April against 48.9 points in March. Economists had expected the index to rise to 50.5 points.

The company IHS Markit noted that companies continue to report an increase in labor costs and a weakening of sales, while employment data for the reporting period remained almost unchanged.

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The Australian dollar can surprise traders – experts

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According to the expert of the largest European company Tempus, whose forecasts are considered the most reliable, the Australian dollar may pleasantly surprise market participants. The expert believes the huge potential of the currency of the Green continent, as well as impressive opportunities for economic growth throughout the Pacific region.

According to analysts, the Australian currency has an advantage against the backdrop of a protracted trade conflict between the United States and China. In the course of easing tensions between States and its termination, the Australian currency may give odds to other world currencies. According to a leading strategist from Tempus, the currency of the Green continent is oversold and will increase by 5% to 0.7400 against the US dollar by the end of this year.

Last month, experts from Bank of America also recommended buying Australian currency. According to financial institution strategists, by the end of 2019, the AUD/USD rate will rise to 0.7800.

However, some analysts have a different opinion. Shane Oliver, head of the investment strategy at AMP Capital, believes that the national currency of Australia will fall in price to 0.6000 by the end of this year. "Bears" on the Australian dollar expect a potential reduction in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Recall that last week was not too successful for the currency of the Green Continent. The AUD/USD rate fell to its lowest level since the beginning of 2016, reaching 0.6988. However, analysts do not lose hope, predicting the rise of the Australian dollar by the end of this year.

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EURUSD movement will depend on data on the US labor market

The US dollar continued to strengthen on Thursday against risky assets and especially rose in pair with the European currency. Good data on labor productivity and production orders helped the US dollar to regain its position by the end of the week.

According to the report by the US Department of Labor, due to the labor efficiency of American workers, non-agricultural labor productivity in the first quarter of this year increased by 3.6% compared with the previous quarter. Compared to the same period of the previous year, productivity increased by 2.4%.

However, there are some minor problems regarding the growth of unit labor costs. The report indicates that in the 1st quarter, expenses decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous quarter. Compared with the same period of the previous year, unit costs increased by 0.1%.

Orders for manufacturing goods in the US also rose in March and were much better than economists' forecasts.

According to the US Department of Commerce, orders for manufactured goods rose by 1.9% to $508.19 billion. Economists had expected orders to grow in March by 1.5%. Excluding transportation, production orders rose by 0.8% and factory orders excluding defense increased from 1.7%.

Weekly data on the labor market did not cause a special market reaction. According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week from April 21 to April 27 was 230,000, while economists had expected the number of new claims to be 215,000. The data is similar to last week, indicating a stable state of the labor market. The average moving applications for four weeks rose to 212,500. The number of secondary applications for the week from April 14 to April 20 increased by 17,000 and amounted to 1,671,000.

Today, all attention will be focused on the US Department of Labor report on the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector, which could lead to a serious surge in volatility if the data seriously diverge from the expectations of economists. It is predicted that the number of people employed in April of this year will increase by 181,000 after rising by 196,000 in March. The overall unemployment rate should remain around 3.8%.

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As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the downward potential will be limited by the support level of 1.1150, the breakthrough of which will return the trading instrument to the lows of April 25, which will completely eliminate the upward correction in risky assets and return to the market large buyers of the US dollar that can easily push the support of 1.1110.

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Bitcoin analysis for May 03, 2019

Strong bullish momentum on the Bitcoin. The price hit the level of $6.030. A new study reveals surging investments in cryptocurrencies by institutional investors, with almost half of them viewing crypto assets as having a place in their portfolios. "Institutional investors are overwhelmingly favorable about the appealing characteristics of digital assets," Fidelity Investments described. This is positive sign for BTC and it did bring more confidences to investors.

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Technical picture:

Purple horizontal rectangle – resistance cluster

Orange median line – Pitchfork median line (mean)/resistance

Upper rising green line – Diagonal resistance

Strong bullish movement on the BTC today and price finally managed to test key resistance at $6.040. Our view is that buying looks extremely risky cause of multiply resistance levels around $6.031-$6.400. Anyway, the demand is still strong and you should watch for potential bearish divergence on lower frames to confirm potential downward correction. Down references are seen at $5.658 and $5.338.

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Bitcoin. The rate continues to update the annual highs

Bitcoin confidently broke above the level of 5660 and continues to grow in the resistance area of 5900. The accumulated volume since April 15 has allowed traders to form a good "platform" to continue the upward trend in the pair.

Signal to buy Bitcoin (BTC):

Now, the main goal of the bulls is to maintain the support level of 5660 and update the resistance of 5880, from where the rate can easily reach the psychological level of 6000 USD, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of returning to the level of 5660, long positions can still be returned to the rebound from the minimum of 5550 USD.

Signal to sell Bitcoin (BTC):

The bears will manifest itself after upgrading the resistance of 5880, but to open short positions from the rebound from the maximum of 6020. The main task of sellers will be to return and consolidate below the support of 5660, which they missed yesterday. This will lead to the closure of a number of long positions by speculative players and a decline in the rate of cryptocurrency in the support area of 5500.

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Analysis of Gold for May 03, 2019

Gold has been trading upwards today and the momentum is on the upside. We see potential more upside in the next period so buying opportunities are preferable.

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Yellow horizontal line – resistance cluster

Blue line – Median Keltner line 20 EMA (current resistance)

White horizontal line – Broken resistance

Strong bullish movement on the Gold today and baking into the 4-day trading range. The fact that Gold did back into the trading range is telling us that sellers didn't have power to sustain down break and that buyers reacted. The resistance at the price of $1.275 didn't hold and buyers are in control. Key short-term upward reference is seen at $1.287. Daily bullish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator is still in the background and that is another sign of potential strength on the Gold.

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EUR./USD analysis for May 03, 2019

EUR/USD has been trading downwards as we expected and our main target is met at the price of 1.1151. Post Non-Farm Employment Change did bring us rejection from the support and there is chance for the upward correction.

analytics5ccc47a60c923.jpg

Yellow horizontal line – strong support

Blue line – Median Keltner line 20 EMA (current resistance)

EUR/USD did amazing job with our downside view yesterday and the key target at 1.1151 has been met. Anyway, the rejection after the test happened and there is a chance for upward correction till end of the day. We found good resistance at the price of 1.1187 (previous swing low became resistance) and at the price of 1.1210. The trend is still downward but the strong rejection from support is not good sign of further downward continuation. Anyway, if you see the breakout of 1.1151, there is potential for the test of 1.1118.

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GBP/USD. May 3. The trading system "Regression Channels". The political crisis in the UK remains

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 44.6443

The British pound, despite the important event of the last day in the form of a meeting of the Bank of England and the announcement of its results, did not show a proper reaction to this event. Of course, the markets were waiting for important and new information from the British regulator. Today, all the attention of traders will be focused on America and reports on unemployment, wages, and NonFarm Payrolls. These reports will determine the mood of market participants in the US trading session until the end of the day. Although positive forecasts for these reports may cause a moderate strengthening of the US dollar at the European trading session. In the UK today, only the index of business activity in the services sector will be published, however, traditionally, it can also have a strong enough impact on the course of trading. Especially if the total value of the index is above 50. The pound, unlike the euro, maintains an upward trend. Most likely, due to new positive expectations of traders about the favorable outcome of Brexit. However, as in most cases earlier, these expectations are not confirmed. In the meantime, Theresa May fired Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson, explaining the decision as a complete loss of confidence in his Department. May accused Williamson of transferring confidential information to journalists. Well, another reshuffle in the British government. Over the past year, we have even got used to it.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3031

S2 - 1.3000

S3 - 1.2970

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3062

R2 - 1.3092

R3 - 1.3123

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD continues to be adjusted. Thus, it is now recommended to consider buy orders with targets at 1.3062 and 1.3092, but after the completion of the correction. Reports from the United States can have a strong influence on the course of trading, so during their release, you should trade with heightened caution.

Sell positions should be considered after the consolidation of the pair below the moving average with first targets at 1.2970 and 1.2939. Today, the trend in the instrument may change.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. May 3. The trading system "Regression Channels". An important day for the US currency

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -51.6806

The EUR/USD pair starts the last trading day of the week in a downward movement. The dollar strengthened against the European currency, the trend for the instrument has changed to a downward one. Today, important macroeconomic reports will begin to arrive almost in the morning. First, the preliminary value of the consumer price index for April will be published in Europe. According to experts, inflation can accelerate to 1.6% y/y. Unfortunately, even this value is below the ECB target level of 2.0%. From the States, today we will receive information on the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector, the so-called NonFarm Payrolls, the average wage, the unemployment rate and two indexes of business activity in the services sector. Of course, the main report of the day is NonFarm Payrolls. The forecast is 185,000 new jobs. Any value above this figure is almost guaranteed to cause new purchases of US currency. Below – small sales, as the trend is downward. Thus, the volatility in the market today may be even higher than on the day of the Fed meeting, since, by and large, the American regulator did not surprise the markets, and today traders will have at least three important reports. Thus, if the NonFarm Payrolls report does not fail, we expect the downward movement to continue.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1169

S2 - 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1,1292

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement. Thus, short positions with targets at 1.1169 and 1.1108 are now relevant. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top will indicate a round of upward correction.

It is recommended to open buy orders not earlier than reversing the pair above the moving average line with the first target at 1.1230. Given a large number of reports planned for today, the option of changing the trend can not be excluded.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the violet lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the US session on May 3. Euro buyers ignore good eurozone inflation

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Despite good data on inflation in the eurozone in April of this year, euro buyers are in no hurry to return to the market. Currently, a large support level of 1.1150 has been reached and the report on the American labor market will most likely determine the future direction, which is released in the second half of the day. In the case of a false breakdown at the level of 1.1150, you can count on a larger increase in EUR/USD pair in the area of resistance at 1.1188 and 1.1223, where I recommend taking profits. With a scenario of good data and a further reduction in the pair, you can take a closer look at the rebound from the 1.1115 low.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears got to the support of 1.1150 and its breakdown together with good data on the labor market will lead to a new wave of sales of the European currency with the update of the main weekly target in the area of 1.1115, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of the EUR/USD growth scenario after the release of data, short positions can return on a false breakdown in the area of 1.1188 or on a rebound from a larger maximum of 1.1223.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a euro company in the afternoon, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1188 will act as resistance.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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The Fed has set the euro in check

On Forex, hopes are constantly replaced by disappointment and these give way to new hopes. You need to get used to it in order to survive. At the end of April, after the release of eurozone GDP statistics, the EUR/USD bulls believed that the downtrend was finally over. However, Jerome Powell dissuaded them in this. It would seem that the statement by the Fed chairman about the temporary nature of the slowdown in inflation should not have stirred up the markets. In fact, when they are almost 70% sure of the reduction in the federal funds rate in 2019, the Central Bank's lack of concern about the reduction in the growth rate of the PCE produces a bomb effect.

Contrary to pessimistic forecasts from Markit with its declining business activity, the eurozone economy turned out to be much more resistant to external shocks than what could have been supposedly. In the first quarter, the GDP grew by 0.4% q/q and by 1.2 g/g, although purchasing managers' indices indicated a modest expansion of 0.2% q/q. When temporary negative factors disappear and the de-escalation of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing gives hope for a V-shaped economic recovery of the Middle Kingdom and the growth of German exports, the EUR / USD bulls turned for a counterattack. Rumors began to circulate in the market that LTRO would not be as generous as it was previously expected that it was possible to draw a bottom under the euro in the $ 1.1-1.12 area, amid the growing likelihood of a reduction in the federal funds rate in 2019. Alas, yet, Jerome Powell and his company had a different opinion.

Dynamics of European GDP

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If in March the Fed was seriously concerned about the slowdown in inflation. Then, why did the Central Bank's fears disappear at a time when the personal spending index really slowed down to 1.6% y/y? Does the Fed know what everyone else doesn't know? This is true, judging by optimistic forecasts for the April consumer price index (+ 2.1% after + 1.9% in March) and core inflation (+ 2.1% after 2%). The release of data on US CPI promises to be the key event of the week by May 10, while investors are trying to digest what Jerome Powell said.

In my opinion, the markets paid too much attention to the word "temporary" and completely lost sight of the word "symmetrical". The Fed is changing approaches to inflation targeting. She is willing to tolerate PCE above the 2% target in periods of economic growth and below 2% in times of recession. The average indicator will be monitored, which means that the rate may not change for a very long time.

US inflation dynamics

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From a fundamental point of view, this means that the fate of dollar pairs will not depend on the dollar. In order to weaken the EUR/USD pair, a softer position of the ECB is required than at the present, which looks questionable amid the recovery of the eurozone economy.

Technically, the April minimum update will increase the risks of target implementation by 161.8% using the AB = CD pattern. It corresponds to a mark of 1.1. On the contrary, the return of euro quotes to the range of $ 1.12-1.15 with the subsequent assault on resistances at $1.127 and $1.132 will return the initiative to the bulls.

EUR / USD daily chart

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GBP / USD plan for the US session on May 3. Pound declines amid weak PMI for UK services

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Buyers missed another support level of 1.3018 after the release of a weak report on the PMI index for the services sector in the UK. At the moment, only the formation of a false breakdown in the minimum area of 1.2983 after the release of the report on the US labor market will be a signal to open long positions in GBP/USD pair with the main goal of returning and fixing above the resistance of 1.3018. Only after that can we expect the update of the morning resistance at 1.3060, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the case of a breakthrough of 1.2983, it is best to look at the pound's low of 1.2946.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Bears will count on an unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.3018, which will increase the pressure on the pound and lead to another wave of sales in the support area of 1.2983 and 1.2946, where I recommend taking profits. In case of an unsuccessful breakout of 1.2983 or growth above 1.3018 after the data on the US labor market, it is best to consider short positions for a rebound from the morning resistance level of 1.3060.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a company in the second half of the day, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3050 will act as resistance.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro weakens amid rising dollar value

The continuing political uncertainty and the threat of an economic downturn in Europe led to a decline in the single European currency against the dollar. At the same time, even signs of a recovery in business activity in Europe did not help the euro to break out of the range of 1.11-1.10 dollars, in which it has been stuck since February. Surveys published by the industry showed a further decline in economic growth in April. In addition, the threat of higher rates for European cars in the United States and the upcoming European elections is also putting pressure on the currency. Against this background, the dollar looks attractive. The American continues to grow, aided by the economic data and the position of the Fed, voiced by Jerome Powell. The head of the regulator smoothed out fears caused by the recent slowdown in inflation. He said that he did not see any reason for lowering interest rates. The dollar will most likely continue to grow, especially if data on employment in the United States will be better than expected and the dollar is currently strong. Emerging markets are showing weak momentum, perhaps, you should think about selling.

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In general, it was a quiet week for major currencies. The volatility indicator was at multi-year lows and liquidity was limited to holiday weekends in Japan and China. The British pound added 1.3 percent in anticipation of a breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations. Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened on the news that next week regulators in both countries will lower interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia officials will meet on May 7 and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand the next day. Anyone can lower rates after reporting low inflation. Currently, markets are estimated by the likelihood that the Fed will cut rates this year at 49 percent, compared with more than 61 percent before Powell's speech.

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Analysis of EUR/USD divergence on May 3. Bearish divergences drive the euro into a corner

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair fell to the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1177) after the formation of a bearish divergence at the MACD indicator and a rebound from the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.1241). The rebound of quotations on May 3 from the level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4%. The consolidation of the pair below the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances for the continuation of the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1102).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Daily

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As seen on the 24-hour chart, the pair reached the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1285) quite a bit. Now, it made a turn in favor of the US dollar and resumed the process of falling in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.0941). There are no emerging divergences on the current chart. Traders can expect the pair to continue to grow in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1553) after the close of quotations above the retracement level of 127.2%.

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1241 if the pair disconnects from the level of 100.0%. The stop loss order should be placed below the level of 1.1177.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1102 if the pair consolidates below the retracement level of 100.0%. The stop loss order should be placed above the level of 1.1177.

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Analysis of GBP/USD divergence on May 3. The level of 1.3094 kept the pair from further growth

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a rebound from the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3098) and a turn in favor of the US dollar. As a result, on May 3, the process of falling can be continued in the direction of the next retracement level of 61.8% (1.2969). There is no single indicator of emerging divergences today. The rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 61.8% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the British pound and some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4%. Closing the quotes below the level of 61.8% will increase the chances for a further decline.

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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As seen on the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the retracement level of 61.8% (1.3069) and falling to the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3031). Closing the quotes of the pair above the level of 50.0% makes it possible to count on some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8%. The new closure of the pair below the Fibo level of 50.0% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the US currency and count on the resumption of the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 38.2% (1.2992).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of April 3, 2019, and April 25, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3069 and a stop loss order under the retracement level of 50.0% as the pair completed closing above the level of 1.3031 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.2992 and a stop loss order above the level of 50.0% if the pair closes below the level of 1.3031 (hourly chart).

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EUR / JPY Daily. Prospects for the development of the movement in May 2019. Analysis of APLs & ZUP

Minor (Daily)

Euro vs Japanese Yen

Previous review from 04/26/2019 19:57 UTC + 3.

____________________

The development of movement of cross-tool EUR / JPY in May 2019 will be determined by the direction of the breakdown range:

-> the level of resistance of 125.20 (initial line SSL Fork operational scale Minute);

-> support level 124.75 (the upper limit of the channel 1/2 the Median Line forked operational scale Minor).

____________________

The outlook for the development of the downward movement (sell)

The breakdown of the support level 124.75 -> the development of the cross-instrument will continue in channel 1/2 Median Line (124.75 <->123.45 <-> 122.50) of the forked operating scale Minor.

Details look at the animated graphics .

____________________

Prospects for the development of the upward movement (buy)

Breakdown of the resistance level 125.20 (starting line the SSL Minute) -> the option of continuing the development of the upward movement of EUR / JPY to the borders 1/2 channel Median Line ( 125.75 <-> 126.25 <-> 126.75 ) and an equilibrium zone (127.40 <-> 128.10 <-> 128.70) of the forked operating scale Minute.

Details are shown in animated graphics .

____________________

The review was compiled without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions in the main financial centers. This is not a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

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BITCOIN Analysis for May 3, 2019

Bitcoin is currently heading towards $6000 resistance area. It is expected to reach the price area in a short time by following the upward momentum in the process.

Presently, prices are climbing up. So, analysts assume that BTC's next wave hits itsTechnically, candlestick arrangements are supportive but fundamental developments are crucial. The US Presidential election ma

The dynamic levels including 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line has been quite successful holding the price higher. Support and a strong momentum towards $6000 is more likely to occur. After reaching $6000 area, certain correction and volatility may be observed. However, without strong bearish counter it is quite rush to conclude that all the bullish gains above $5000. As the price remains above $5000 area with a daily close, further upward pressure is expected in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 5000, 5250, 5500

RESISTANCE: 5850, 6000, 6500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE and IMPULSIVE

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 03, 2019

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of weakness following a breakout of the lowest level of 0.6648. On the H1 chart, the level of 0.6648 coincides with 23.6% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the market is still in a downtrend. However, the major resistance is seen at the level of 0.6690. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Therefore, strong resistance will be found at the level of 0.6690 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6575. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.6575, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level 0.6544.

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GBP / USD Daily. Prospects for the development of the movement in May 2019 Analysis of APLs & ZUP.

Minor (Daily)

Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar

Previous review from 04/26/2019 19:59 UTC + 3.

____________________

The development of the movement of Her Majesty 's currency in GBP / USD in May 2019 will be due to the testing and direction of the breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line channel borders (1.3000 <-> 1.3050 <-> 1.3100) of the forked operating scale Minute.

The layout of the movement options inside the 1 / 2ML Minute channel is presented in an animated graphic.

____________________

buy)

Break resistance level 1.3100 (upper border of channel 1/2 Median Line Minute) -> continued development of the upward movement of GBP / USD to the equilibrium zone (1.3250 <-> 1.3370 <-> 1.3450 ) of the forks of the Minute and 1/2 Median Line channel ( 1.3370 <-> 1.3640 <-> 1.3870 ) of the forked operating scale Minore.

Details are shown in animated graphics .

____________________

Development Outlook for a Downward Movement (sell )

Breakdown of the support level of 1.3000 (the lower border of the channel member 1/2 the Median Line of the operational scale Minute) -> resumption of the downward movement of GBP / USD to the targets -> initial line SSL Minute ( 1.2900 ) <-> local minimum 1.2864 <-> initial line SSL (1.2840) for the operational line Minor scale <-> control line LTL Minor (1.2580).

Details look at the animated graphics .

____________________

The review was compiled without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions in the main financial centers. This is not a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 03, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3368. The pair rose from the level of 1.3368 (the level of 1.3228 coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 1.3519. But it rebounded from the top pf 1.3519 to 1.3370. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.3370 followed by 1.3332, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 1.3426. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3370 and 1.3426; for that we expect a range of 56 pips (1.3426 - 1.3370). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 1.3370. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.3370, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at the levels of 1.3466 and 1.3519. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3332.

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EUR / USD Daily. Prospects for the development of the movement in May 2019. Analysis of APLs & ZUP

Minor (Daily)

Euro vs US dollar

Previous review from 04/26/2019 20:00 UTC + 3.

____________________

The European currency will be in the equilibrium zone (1.0930 <-> 1.1210 <-> 1.1490). direction of the range breakdown: -> resistance level 1.1310 (control line UTL forks for operating scale Minute); -> support level 1.1210 (Median Line Minor mid-line). The marking of movement options within the balance zone of a forked Minor is shown in the animated graphic.

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The breakdown of the resistance level 1.1310 ( control line UTL of the operational scale fork of the Minute) -> development of the EUR / USD movement towards the targets -> upper limit of the ISL38.2 (1.1490) equilibrium zone of the fork of the operational scale of the Minor <-> finite Shiff Line Minor (1.1570) <-> local maximum 1.1815.

The Details are Shown in animated graphics .

____________________

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1210 (Median Line Minor median line) -> the development of the movement of the single European currency will be directed to the targets -> 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1110 <-> 1.1050 <-> 1.0990) operational scale Minute <-> lower bound ISL61.8 (1.0930) equilibrium zone of the fork of the operational scale Minor <-> initial line SSL Minute (1.0890) <-> final Shiff Line Minute (1.0780).

Details look at the animated graphics.

____________________

The review was compiled without taking into account the news background. The opening of trading sessions in the main financial centers and is not a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

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Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD for May 3, 2019

EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the bearish momentum after rejecting off the 1.13 area with a daily close. The euro has come under pressure due to the economic slowdown and mixed reports. Amid that, the US dollar managed to extend gains despite the recent Fed's dovish sentiment.

In the wake of the economic slowdown, Brexit uncertainty, and global trade challenges, the ECB has kept the interest rate unchanged. The bank's key deposit rate is at minus 0.40 percent and it is expected to remain at that level for some time given weak economic growth. Despite the recent downbeat economic reports, the ECB is still optimistic about the future economic development. The ECB officials expressed confidence in the euro area's brightening economic outlook, while hinting at differing preferences for the speed at which monetary policy should respond to recent improvements.

Today the EU CPI Flash Estimate is expected to show an increase to 1.6% from the previous value of 1.4% and the Core CPI Flash Estimate is also expected to increase to 1.0% from the previous value of 0.8%. Additionally, the EU PPI is expected to decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.1%.

Ahead of the NFP report to be published today, certain volatility is expected in the EUR/USD pair. USD is expected to have an upper hand over EUR in the process. Today the US Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 181k from the previous figure of 196k. Besides, the Average Hourly Earnings is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1% and the Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.8%. Though analysts predict a decline in the employment change, the employer activity in April along with the solid economic growth are expected to have positive results. Recently, Fed Chairman Jeromy Powell described the current economic conditions of the US as stronger than expected while the inflation remained sluggish. Additionally, the US-China trade negotiations are still unsettled and due to the conflict in several sectors operating together, the rise in tariffs and involvement in the process are expected to keep the economy under pressure as the foreign trade is challenged at the current global economic scenario.

As of the current scenario, USD is expected to sustain the bearish momentum in the pair which is expected to turn further impulsive if the upcoming NFP reports provide positive results or else further consolidation and correction can be observed.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 1.1200 area which is expected to push the price further downward with target towards 1.1050 support area in the coming days. The price is expected to have consistent bearish momentum in the process. As the price remains below 1.1200 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue in this pair.

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Fed showed teeth: selling EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs

Although the final decision of the Fed to leave the key interest rate unchanged was expected, the resolution of the bank, as well as, the speech of the head, Jerome Powell, somewhat differed from the general views of market participants.

We have previously indicated that investors were determined that the bank could lower interest rates in the second half of this year, after a sharp turnaround in the monetary policy of the American regulator at the beginning of this year, when the Fed and Jerome Powell signaled a pause in raising interest rates. At the March meeting, a statement by Mr. Governor and some Fed members sounded a note of such a probability. In any case, the market interpreted their words in this way, therefore, they expected more specifics from the May meeting.

In our opinion, Powell clearly shed light on the likely actions of the Central Bank in this regard. And in his commentary, he not only made it clear that the rates could be lowered, but he noted with complete clarity and frankness that he was waiting for renewed growth of inflationary pressure, believing that a decrease in inflation in the first quarter was a temporary phenomenon. He also positively described the situation on the labor market, saying that he still remains strong and that he does not see his overheating. In general, he also spoke positively about the general economic situation in the country.

His statement was a cold shower for those market players who have already felt that the Fed has surrendered and gone completely in the wake of not only the market but the start of a new quantitative easing program as President Donald Trump, who wants not only lower interest rates. In fact, we can say that the winter retreat of the regulator was a tactical maneuver and nothing more. It can even be assumed that the bank will probably continue the process of reducing its balance sheet but at the same time, liquidity in the banking system will be supported by repos. This topic is now under discussion, Powell said.

Not only did the foreign exchange market, as well as the American stock market, fully respond to the somewhat unexpected statement of the head of the Federal Reserve by the growth of the dollar and the weakening of stock indices, but the market of the American state dollar also showed an increase in yield of treasuries.

Assessing this state of affairs, we believe that if the data of the business activity index in the non-manufacturing sector of the United States published today and the data on employment in the States do not disappoint, this will support the dollar exchange rate in the foreign exchange markets.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is likely to continue to decline on strong economic statistics from the United States. We consider it possible to sell it after crossing the level of 1.1160 with a probable local target of 1.1100.

The GBP/USD pair is turning down. We consider it possible to sell it after crossing the level of 1.3000 with a probable local target of 1.2925 against the background of positive American data.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for May 3. Bank of England has not given the markets food for thought

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Wave counting analysis:

On May 2, the GBP / USD pair lost 20 basis points only. Thus, there are grounds for assuming the completion of the upward correctional wave. However, for the time being, the deviation of quotes from the reached maximums is too small for an unequivocal conclusion. Moreover, the current wave structure still suggests a decline in the pair and the construction of a downward wave. Today, the execution of this option can help the news background. But only if reports from America do not become a disappointment for the market. In general, the news background is not on the side of the pound sterling, and this is a good help for the further decline of the instrument.

Purchase goals:

1.3118 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.3168 - 50.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2954 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.2838 - 127.2% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still involves the construction of a downward trend. Now, I recommend selling the pair with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.2839 and 1.2693, which corresponds to 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci. On the other hand, the signal from the MACD indicated that the pair is prepared to build a descending wave, but doubts still remain. Sales, therefore, recommend cautious. Today, news from America will help determine the market with a trading strategy.

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Fundamental analysis of USD/CHF for May 3, 2019

USD has managed to gain sustainable non-volatile momentum over CHF recently which is expected to continue. Despite the Fed's dovish sentiment, certain volatility is expected in this pair ahead of the NFP report scheduled for release today.

Today the US Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 181k from the previous figure of 196k. Besides, the Average Hourly Earnings is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1% and the Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.8%. Though analysts predict a decline in the employment change, the employer activity in April along with the solid economic growth are expected to have positive results. Recently, Fed Chairman Jeromy Powell described the current economic conditions of the US as stronger than expected while the inflation remained sluggish.

Though wage growth is not strong enough to drive up inflation, it can be enough to underpin the economic growth as the stimulus from last year's $1.5 trillion tax cut wanes. The jobless rate, around the lowest in nearly 50 years, is close to the 3.7 percent that Fed officials project it will be by the end of the year.

Additionally, the US-China trade negotiations are still unsettled and due to the conflict in several sectors operating together, the raise in tariffs and involvement in the process are expected to keep the economy under pressure as the foreign trade is challenged at the current global economic scenario.

On the other hand, Switzerland has released worse-than-expected economic reports recently which lead to further weakness of the currency. The Swiss retail sales report was published with a decrease to -0.7% from the previous value of 0.0% which was expected to be at -0.4% while the Manufacturing PMI also decreased to 48.5 from the previous figure of 50.3 which was expected to increase to 51.0.

Today, the Swiss SECO Consumer Climate report is going to be published which is expected to increase to -3 from the previous figure of -4, and the CPI is also expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.5%.

As of the current scenario, CHF is weaker against USD ahead of the NFP report. The US dollar is likely to extend gains if the upcoming economic reports are published better than expected in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has formed a V shape bullish reversal recently off the 1.0130 support area. The price is currently being held by the dynamic support area of the Kumo Cloud and crossovers between Tenkan, Kijun and 20 EMA also indicate further upward pressure. As the price remains above 1.00 area with a daily close, further bullish moves with target towards 1.0250 and later towards 1.03 area are expected.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on May 3

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro/Dollar, the price is close to the cancellation of the upward structure from April 25, which requires a breakdown of the level of 1.1147. For the currency pair Pound/Dollar, the price is in correction from the upward structure on April 25. For the currency pair Dollar/Franc, we follow the initial conditions for the top of May 1. For the currency pair Dollar/Yen, e expect the continuation of the downward movement after passing by the price of the range of 111.44 – 111.30. For the currency pair Euro/Yen, the range of 124.48 – 124.30 is the key support for the upward structure of April 26. For the currency pair Pound/Yen, we continue to follow the upward structure from April 26, we expect the upward movement to continue after the breakdown of 145.73 and the level of 145.00 is the key support.

Forecast for May 3:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro/Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1313, 1.1271, 1.1256, 1.1220, 1.1171, 1.1147 and 1.1117. The price is in a deep correction. We expect the cancellation of the upward structure from April 25 after the breakdown of 1.1147. In this case, the first target is 1.1117. The resumption of the upward structure is possible after the breakdown of 1.1220. The first target is 1.1256. The passage of the price of the range of 1.1256 – 1.1271 will allow us to count on the movement to the potential target – 1.1313.

The main trend is the upward structure from April 25, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1220 Take profit: 1.1255

Buy 1.1271 Take profit: 1.1310

Sell: 1.1169 Take profit: 1.1147

Sell: 1.1145 Take profit: 1.1173

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For the currency pair Pound/Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3185, 1.3119, 1.3093, 1.3030, 1.2997 and 1.2955. We follow the development of the upward structure of April 25. The upward movement is expected after the price passes the range of 1.3093 – 1.3119. In this case, the first potential target is 1.3185 and consolidation is near this level.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 1.3030 – 1.2997 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 1.2955 and this level is the key support for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the upward structure of April 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3093 Take profit: 1.3118

Buy: 1.3120 Take profit: 1.3185

Sell: 1.3030 Take profit: 1.3000

Sell: 1.2996 Take profit: 1.2955

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For the currency pair Dollar/Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0264, 1.0242, 1.0227, 1.0205, 1.0182, 1.0169, 1.0153 and 1.0124. The price has issued the initial conditions for the upward cycle of May 1. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.0205. In this case, the target is 1.0227 and in the area of 1.0227 – 1.0242 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0264, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.0182 – 1.0169 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The goal is 1.0153 and this level is the key support for the top. Its price will have a downward trend. In this case, the potential goal is 1.0124.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top of May 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0205 Take profit: 1.0227

Buy: 1.0242 Take profit: 1.0264

Sell: 1.0169 Take profit: 1.0153

Sell: 1.0150 Take profit: 1.0124

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For the currency pair Dollar/Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 112.14, 111.89, 111.74, 111.44, 111.30, 110.97 and 110.57. We continue to monitor the downward structure of April 24. We expect the subsequent development of this structure after the price passes the range of 111.44 – 111.30. In this case, the goal is 110.97, and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the downward cycle is still considered the level of 110.57, near which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 111.74 – 111.89 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. The goal is 112.14 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of April 24.

The main trend is the downward structure of April 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.74 Take profit: 111.88

Buy: 111.90 Take profit: 112.14

Sell: 111.30 Take profit: 111.00

Sell: 110.95 Take profit: 110.58

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For the currency pair Canadian Dollar/Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3561, 1.3534, 1.3512, 1.3483, 1.3448, 1.3433 and 1.3415. We monitor the initial conditions for the top of May 1st. Further development of the upward structure is expected after the breakdown of 1.3483. In this case, the target is 1.3512 and in the area of 1.3512 – 1.3534 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3561, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 1.3448 – 1.3433 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The target is 1.3415 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top of May 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3483 Take profit: 1.3512

Buy: 1.3514 Take profit: 1.3534

Sell: 1.3448 Take profit: 1.3433

Sell: 1.3413 Take profit: 1.3380

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For the currency pair Australian Dollar/Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7031, 0.7015, 0.7003, 0.6984, 0.6963, 0.6945 and 0.6923. We follow the development of the downward structure of April 30. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.6984. In this case, the goal is 0.6963 and in the area of 0.6963 – 0.6945 is the short-term downward movements, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 0.6923, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 0.7003 – 0.7015 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth movement. The goal is 0.7031 and this level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward structure of April 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7015 Take profit: 0.7030

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 0.6984 Take profit: 0.6963

Sell: 0.6961 Take profit: 0.6945

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For the currency pair Euro/Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 126.13, 125.86, 125.31, 125.13, 124.93, 124.48, 124.30 and 124.05. We continue to monitor the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of April 26. At the moment, the price is in a deep correction. We expect the upward movement to resume after the breakdown of 124.93. In this case, the first target is 125.13. The short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 125.13 – 125.31 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. The goal is 125.86. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 126.13, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The range of 124.48 – 124.30 is the key support for the top. Its price passage will have to develop a downward structure. In this case, the first potential target is 124.05.

The main trend is the formation of the initial conditions for the top of April 26, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 124.93 Take profit: 125.13

Buy: 125.31 Take profit: 125.80

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 124.30 Take profit: 124.05

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For the currency pair Pound/Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 146.63, 146.20, 146.00, 145.73, 145.29, 145.07 and 144.74. We follow the development of the upward cycle of April 26. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 145.73. In this case, the goal is 146.00. The passage of the price of the range of 146.00 – 146.20 will lead to a movement to the potential target of 146.63, from this level, we expect a rollback down.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 145.29 – 145.07 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. The goal is 144.74 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of April 26, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 145.75 Take profit: 146.00

Buy: 146.20 Take profit: 146.60

Sell: 145.27 Take profit: 145.07

Sell: 145.04 Take profit: 144.80

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for May 3. Euro is ready to decline, will the news prevent this scenario?

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Wave counting analysis:

On Thursday, May 2, the trading ended for the EUR / USD with another decline of 25 b.p. Thus, the conclusion suggests that the pair has moved to the construction of a downward wave 3, which is according to a signal from the MACD indicator. If this is true, then from the current position, the lowering of the instrument will continue with the targets located under the 11th figure. On the other hand, there will be news on unemployment, wages and jobs created outside the agricultural sectors in America today. Meanwhile, in the European Union - inflation. All these data can lead to an increase in the activity of the market and turnaround, since they will not necessarily be in favor of the US dollar. Accordingly, it is necessary to be prepared for an increase in the euro currency, although wave marking implies a further decline. However, the news background will be of overwhelming importance today.

Sales targets:

1.1097 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1045 - 200.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1324 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build the downward section of the trend. The correctional wave is presumably completed. The current wave counting implies a continuation of the decline of the pair with the closest targets 1.1097 and 1.1045, which equates to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci. Meanwhile, MACD has turned down, and thus, I recommend selling a pair with defined goals. After lunch, I recommend using orders that limit potential losses, since sharp price reversals are possible.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on May 3. The pound is ready to continue its decline

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday's statements by the Bank of England on a possible earlier increase in interest rates did not inspire buyers of the pound. In the first half of the day, the bulls are required to stay above the support level of 1.3018, and the formation of a false breakdown on this range will be the first signal to open long positions in order to update a high of 1.3060 and return to 1.3097, where I recommend to lock in the profit. In case the pound further decreases, you can buy GBP/USD at a rebound from the low of 1.2983.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

As long as trading is below the 1.3060 range, the pressure on the pound will continue. The main task of bears in the first half of the day will be a breakthrough of the support level of 1.3018, which will increase the pressure on the pair and lead to a larger movement down to the area of a low of 1.2983, where I recommend taking profits. With the growth scenario above 1.3060, it is best to look closely at a rebound from the high of this week around 1.3097. An unsuccessful consolidation at 1.3060 will be another signal to sell the pound, which will make it possible to form the upper limit of the new downward channel.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty with a bearish advantage.

Bollinger bands

Indicator volatility has decreased, which does not provide signals for entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on May 3. Weak eurozone economy continues to put pressure on the euro

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday afternoon, euro buyers failed to stay above support at 1.1188, which led to further downward movement. Today's goal for the first half of the day will be to return to this range, which may lead to an increase in EUR/USD in the resistance area of 1.1223, where I recommend taking profits. The focus will be on data on the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector. A weak report will lead to a larger upward wave with an update of a high of 1.1260. In case of further decline, you can count on long positions after the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1150.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

An unsuccessful attempt to consolidate at 1.1188 will be another signal to open short positions in the euro with the aim of reducing and consolidating below the support level of 1.1150, the breakdown of which will push EUR/USD to the area of a low of 1.1115, where I recommend taking profits. With the euro rising above the resistance of 1.1188 in the first half of the day, it is best to open short positions to rebound from a high of 1.1223.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a further downward trend in the pair.

Bollinger bands

The lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1160 will limit the euro's downward potential. In case of growth, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1195 will act as resistance.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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AUD/USD: time to buy

The Australian dollar is in the grip of a contradictory fundamental background. On the one hand, there are rumors about the end of the US-China trade war, on the other, the prospects for lowering the interest rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia against the background of slowing inflation. In addition, the AUD/USD pair is forced to respond to the ubiquitous growth of the US currency, which so far has been supported by Federal Reserve head Jerome Powell. In turn, the growth of the commodity market slowed, the cause of which also includes the strengthening of the greenback. As a result, the "aussie" succumbed to the influence of bears and dropped to the lower limit of the price range, that is, to the key support level of 0.7000.

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During the Asian session, the sellers tried to break through this target, but failed. For the AUD/USD pair, the support level of 0.7000 has played a special role - over the past few years (to be more precise, since the beginning of 2016), bears have made regular attempts to gain a foothold in the 69th figure and lower, but in each case the price has returned to the level above 70. In other words, a powerful informational occasion is needed for the development of a downward trend, which will either greatly strengthen the position of the greenback or sharply weaken the aussie. At the moment, the bears have no such arguments.

At the same time, the nervousness of AUD/USD traders is fully justified: as early as the next meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will take place next Tuesday, that is, on May 7. In anticipation of this event, the market began to think about the likelihood of interest rate cuts. According to some experts, the RBA may decide to take this step in May.

Australian inflation is really surprised by the low results. Let me remind you that the consumer price index on a monthly basis suddenly dropped to zero, while analysts expected it to decline only to 0.2%. In annual terms, the indicator growth slowed to 1.3%, although the overall forecast was at 1.5% (from 1.8% in the fourth quarter of last year). Core inflation rose by only 0.2% during the first quarter (after seasonal adjustments) - this fact again disappointed market participants, who expected the growth of the key indicator by 0.4%.

On an annualized basis, baseline quarterly inflation fell to 1.4%, well below the minimum target value of the Australian regulator. In other words, inflation showed a decline "on all fronts", not justifying even the weak forecasts of experts. The growth rate of the Australian economy is not encouraging either - if in the first quarter of last year Australia's GDP was at 1.1% (quarterly), in the second quarter it fell to 0.9%, in the third to 0.3%, and finally, in the fourth - up to 0.2%. Similar dynamics is observed in the annual expression of the indicator.

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Therefore, the RBA's reaction to the latest releases is not difficult to predict - the rhetoric of central bank's members will be 100% dovish-like. But at the same time, the question of lowering the interest rate still remains open. Unlike the RBNZ, which at the previous meeting actually announced easing of monetary policy, the Australian regulator chose to wait. At the April meeting, the head of the RBA, Philip Low, even stated that the global financial conditions "remain favorable," as do the prospects for the world economy. According to him, the central bank expects a further decrease in unemployment and an increase in the level of wages, and as a result - inflation indicators. The minutes of this meeting, which was published two weeks later, were also quite discreet and neutral: at least, it did not contain any hints of a rate cut in the near future.

In their public speeches, members of the Australian regulator are also not in a hurry with the conclusions regarding the rate cut. Although the deputy head of the RBA, Guy Debelle, who spoke last week, allowed monetary policy easing, judging by his rhetoric, he is not ready to take this step at the next meeting. According to him, the central bank "can theoretically reduce the interest rate if necessary," but so far the regulator needs to "track the discrepancy between a slowing economy and a strong labor market in Australia."

In my opinion, during its May meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia will take a wait-and-see attitude, although it may allow a rate cut before the end of this year. We should not forget about the positive side of Australian data. In addition to strengthening the labor market, production activity in the country has significantly increased: according to the latest data from AIG, this indicator increased from 51 to 54.8 points.

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In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to take any decisive steps before the resolution of the US-China trade negotiations. It will be their 11th round next week - and, according to numerous sources, the parties are close to concluding a historic trade deal. According to rumors, the US president agreed to "remove the brackets" of the dialogue a number of significant differences that hampered the entire negotiation process (above all, these are issues in the field of intellectual property protection). In other words, the likelihood of a truce is now quite high - according to preliminary data, the agreement can be announced as early as next Friday.

Thus, in the near future, the Australian dollar may receive substantial support - both from the RBA and from the external fundamental background. If the Australian regulator is patient and Washington and Beijing announce a deal, AUD/USD bears will not be able to keep the pair within the 69th figure, after which the price will return to its usual range of 0.70-0.7110 or higher - 0.7110 -0.7230.

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Trading Plan 05/03/2019 EURUSD

On the market, a reversal towards the dollar - after strong data on US GDP data for Q1 (+ 3.2%) and a strong employment report for April from ADP (+275 K).

If strong labor market data is confirmed on Friday (Nonfarm) at 11:30, the market may start a trend towards a stronger dollar.

EURUSD: Strong daily levels.

Buy from 1.1270.

Sell from 1.1110.

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Burning forecast 05.03.2019 EURUSD

The EURUSD rate has formed strong levels for a breakthrough and the beginning of a strong movement.

Perhaps the impetus for the beginning of a trend will be the US employment report for April, which will be released on Friday at 11:30 London time

We are ready to sell the euro at a break down 1.1110

We are ready to buy the euro from 1.1270

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