GBP / USD pair for August 23. Results of the day. The UK is preparing to withdraw from the EU without a deal

4-hour timeframe

gMt40b36_GhzfYU2fLeM5fKHzmTCIIrdAN_qS3lO

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 68p - 55p - 69p - 131p - 77p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 80p (79p).

In the penultimate trading day of the week during the European trading session, the British pound sterling continued to adjust, but closer to the US session, the US dollar began to lose ground. So far, all today's movement is fully within the scope of a downward correction with a view to a critical line that can be worked out today. In the coming hours in the States, preliminary values of indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors for August. However, these reports will most likely be ignored by the market as insignificant. Today, at least some information is expected about the progress of negotiations between the States and China regarding new trade conditions between the countries. This information is the most important and 100% will cause a tangible market reaction. Unfortunately, it is rather difficult to predict how the negotiations will end, but so far everything is going to the fact that the parties will not come to the common denominator.

As for the UK, the Minister for Brexit, Dominic Raab, warned that London is prepared for agreement with Brussels, and if the EU shows the proper spirit and determination the EU without a deal. By and large, the probability of concluding a deal, at the same rate as the popularity of Theresa May, both in Parliament and among the people. "Both sides have the same thing as the outcome of the confrontation" without a deal. " The timing of the talks is approaching its end. October is the deadline. and if the EU shows the proper spirit and commitment, the deal will be achieved, but there must also be a reserve exit plan from the EU without a deal.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair began to be adjusted with the aim of a critical line. It is recommended to exercise correction carefully. It is best to open shorts after the bears have overcome the critical Kijun-sen line with the goal of a pivot level of 1.2745.

Buy positions will again become relevant after the completion of the current correction with the targets of 1.2911, 1.2939 and 1.2996. The signal to open longs is the turn of the MACD indicator upward or the price rebound from the critical line.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD pair for August 24. Trading system "Regression channels". No "deal" - losses of 80 billion pounds

4-hour timeframe

analytics5b7fa1390f4c7.png

Technical data:

Senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: direction - down.

Moving average (20; flattened) - sideways.

CCI: -4.6308

Unlike the euro major pair, the GBP/USD currency pair was fixed below the moving average line. This point is very noteworthy, as it means that the positions of the British pound sterling are still extremely weak. At the moment, the trend for the instrument has changed to a downward trend and shorts have become actual. As mentioned earlier, the exit of the UK from the EU without a deal will be a strong blow to the country's economy. Yesterday, the UK's Minister of Economy Philip Hammond called a specific figure in the absence of a "deal", Britain will incur an $ 80 billion loss. Hammond also noted that this would be a serious blow to the standard of living of the citizens of Foggy Albion. Thus, the situation is a stalemate. Agreeing with the EU does not work, the deadline for negotiations expires in October, in the absence of a "deal" Britain will suffer huge losses, which will further put pressure on the pound sterling. Although, as we all see, the British currency is still suffering serious losses amid expectations of the market that it will not be possible to agree with Brussels. From a technical point of view, everything is on the side of the American currency. If traders manage to return above the removals, then the British pound will have another chance to gain some ground, but long-term prospects for the currency of the UK still remain very sad.

Nearest support levels:

S1 = 1.2817

S2 - 1.2695

S3 - 1,2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.2939

R2 = 1.3062

R3 = 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD pair overcame the removals. Thus, it is now recommended to open a sell order with a target of 1.2695. The signal to the manual closing of short positions will be the color of 1-2 bars indicator Heiken Ashi in purple.

Again, long positions are recommended only after the bulls overcome the moving average line with a target of 1.2939. From a fundamental point of view, this option is less likely than a further drop in the pound.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The junior channel is linear - violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for August 24, 2018

analytics5b7ff74745c62.png

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1599. According to the M30 time – frame, I found a rejection of the yesterday's high at the price of 1.1600 and testing of upper diagonal of the upward channel, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found overbought condition on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1529 and at the price of 1.1486.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1581

R2: 1.1625

R3: 1.1651

Support levels:

S1: 1.1511

S2: 1.1485

S3: 1.1411

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 24, 2018

analytics5b7ff0df5471b.png

Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range (1.2200).

The price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery towards 1.1830. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1800.

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is testing the price zone of 1.1450-1.1370 (demand zone) where the depicted trend lines are located on the depicted weekly chart.

On August 10, temporary bearish closure below 1.1400 was achieved. This allowed further bearish decline towards 1.1300 where evident bullish recovery was demonstrated.

If the current bullish pullback persists above 1.1520, the bearish scenario would be hindered for the short-term. Further bullish advancement should be expected towards 1.1750.

On the other hand, For the weekly Head & Shoulders reversal pattern to be confirmed, the EUR/USD pair needs obvious bearish persistence below 1.1400.

Initial bearish target would be located around 1.1275 then 1.1120 if enough bearish pressure is applied.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 24, 2018

analytics5b7ff0e7a7922.png

Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed for a bearish breakout of the depicted consolidation range (0.7170 and 0.7350).

A quick decline took place towards 0.6700-0.6800 where narrow ranged consolidation range was established.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 temporarily.

However, lack of bullish momentum made the bulls fail to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6700.

On August 9, bearish breakout below the depicted consolidation range (0.6700-0.6840) was executed. This allowed the current bearish decline to occur towards 0.6600-0.6570.

The NZD/USD pair outlook turned to be bearish. Bearish targets are projected towards the price levels of 0.6520 and 0.6480.

Recently, early signs of bullish recovery are being manifested around the recent low around 0.6550. This allowed the current bullish pullback to occur.

Conservative traders should wait for deeper bullish pullback towards 0.6750 for a low-risk SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.6850.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR / USD pair as of August 24, 2018

EUR / USD pair

On Thursday, the euro lost 56 points on the strengthening of US trade disputes with China. The dollar strengthened against most of the global currencies since the dollar has a strong fundamental positive. But macroeconomic indicators of the dollar yesterday summed up. Sales of new homes in July, as we expected, went worse than the forecast of 627 thousand against 643 thousand. The PMI manufacturing in August declined from 55.3 to 54.5, while PMI fell from 56.0 to 55.2. In the euro area, the PMI indexes came in mixed as the Manufacturing PMI declined from 55.1 to 54.6 and the Services PMI increased from 54.2 to 54.4. The dollar was supported by the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Esther George, who said that the Fed would raise rates, despite the president's discontent.

analytics5b7f8bd9217e9.png

The decline in the euro was delayed by the downtrend, which is embedded in a large price channel of a monthly timeframe and began at the maximum in July 2008. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is on the zero line at the boundary of two zones where there was growth and decrease. Also on the H4 graph, the signal line is located on the border of two zones. In this situation, the euro can still grow.

analytics5b7f8bf30434f.png

Today, the volume of orders for durable goods in the US is expected to decline by -0.7% in July. Investors can work out yesterday's negative on macrostatistics if the mood shifts in the opposite direction as the stock market fell by 0.17% at S&P 500 yesterday.

Also, Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole will begin at 14.00 London time today and no loud statements are expected.

Thus, the euro is far from exhausted on its potential growth, at least making it looks like a technical picture. In case of growth, the price will tend to overtake and surpass the balance line above 1.1650. However, if it fixes below the trend line, it is possible to decrease in the MACD line on the daytime to 1.1448. This price tag coincides with the MACD line and on yesterday's 4-hour chart with strong support at 1.1452.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for August 24, 2018

analytics5b7fd671db69f.png

Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found the buying climax in the background and the absorption of the climax, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found the key resistance zone at the price of $6,580 and my advice is to watch for selling opportunities. Watch for a breakout of upward trendline to confirm further downward movement. The downward target is set at the price of $5,845.

Support/Resistance

$6.580 – Resistance cluster

$6.350– Intraday support

$5.845 – Objective target

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for August 24, 2018

analytics5b7fcf5556b0c.png

Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.2800. According to the M15 time – frame, I found a broken intraday bearish flag in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found that the price failed to test daily pivot (1.2844), which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2771 (S1) and at the price of 1.2730 (S2).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2884

R2: 1.2957

R3: 1.2997

Support levels:

S1: 1.2771

S2: 1.2730

S3: 1.2658

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for August 24, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite indecisive and volatile recently which is still struggling at the edge of the $6,500 area from where a daily close above it is expected to inject further bullish momentum in the coming days. The price has been quite corrective and indecisive recently after the False-Break above $6,500. Though the price has been pushing lower, but it found support twice at the Kumo Cloud lower boundary and pushed higher with quite same impulsiveness with progressing higher lows. Currently, the price is expected to push higher and close above $6,500 to signal further impulsive bullish pressure for the coming days with the target towards $8,000.

SUPPORT: 6000

RESISTANCE: 6500

BIAS; BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5b7fcdfed1430.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for August 24, 2018

EUR/GBP has been quite non-volatile with the bullish gains recently. The price has recently broken above 0.8950 with a daily close. Though the pair is struggling for gains, EURO has been the dominant currency in the pair since the break above the range resistance 0.8850 area.

EUR has been consistently stronger fundamentally that helped the currency to extend strength against GBP in the process. Despite the BREXIT effect and Trade War situation, EUR has been outperforming GBP in several ways. Today German Final GDP was published unchanged as expected at 0.5% whereas GBP failed to meet the expectation ib light of High Street Lending report which showed a decrease to 39.6k from the previous figure of 40.3k, defying the forecast for an increase to 40.6k.

To sum up, EUR is the stronger currency in the pair fundamentally that is expected to lead to further bullish momentum in the process against GBP. Until the UK comes up with better economic data to develop a strong counter-move against EURO, the bullish trend is expected to continue.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently heading lower while residing below the resistance area of 0.9030. The price is expected to retrace towards the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line before starting to push higher above 0.9030 in the coming days. As the price remains above 0.8950, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.8850, 0.8950

RESISTANCE: 0.9030, 0.9150

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

analytics5b7fcca0f2aa1.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 24, 2018

analytics5b7fca40aa291.png

Overview:

The USD/CAD pair continues to move downwards from the levels of 1.3094 and 1.3048. The pair dropped from the level of 1.3094 to the bottom around 1.3018 then set around the spot of 1.3080. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3094 followed by 1.3132, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.2974. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3094 and 1.2974; for that, we expect a range of 120 pips (1.3094 - 1.2974). If the USD/CAD pair fails to break through the minor resistance level of 1.3094 , the market will decline further to 1.3048. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.2974 with a view to testing the daily major support. However, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.3132, then this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of NZD/JPY for August 24, 2018

NZD/JPY has been quite impressive with the recent bullish momentum which led the price to retrace the 74.00 area before pushing a bit lower yesterday. JPY has been the dominant currency in the pair, but recently, NZD gained momentum with better economic reports where JPY struggled with the fundamentals.

This week, NZD Retail Sales report has been published with an increase to 1.1% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.4% and Core Retail Sales report has been also published with an increase to 1.4% from the previous value of 0.6% which was expected to be at 0.8%. Moreover, RBNZ has been quite optimistic with the upcoming development having no plan to increase their interest rate from 1.75% for the coming months. Today, NZD Trade Balance report has been published with an increase to -143M from the previous figure of -288M which was expected to decrease to -400M. The positive result did play its part already, but it was not as impulsive as it was expected to be after the significant increase.

On the JPY side, today, JPY National Core CPI report has been published unchanged at 0.8% which was expected to increase to 0.9% and SPPI has been also published unchanged at 1.1% which was expected to increase to 1.2%. The worse results did weaken the JPY gains in the process.

As of the current scenario, JPY is still struggling with the poor economic results, whereas NZD has been quite positive. Though JPY has been dominating NZD for a long period of time, but having better fundamentals in the coming days, may lead NZD to gain further momentum and result in a strong counter in the process or else JPY may take the lead again to continue pushing lower in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently struggling at the edge of the 74.00 area, while dynamic level of 20 EMA is holding the price as resistance. Though the bullish momentum was quite corrective, whereas of the market context, the price has greater probability to push lower as of the existing trend, but a daily close above the 0.7400 area is expected to push the price higher towards the 75.50 area in the coming days. If the price manages to close below the 74.00 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue and push the price lower towards the 72.50 area in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 72.50

RESISTANCE: 74.00, 75.50

BIAS; BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5b7fc94154e83.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 24, 2018

analytics5b7fc4d07f0ad.png

Overview:

The EUR/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 1.1558 in the short term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.1503 which represents the first support on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the EUR/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.1503. So, buy above the level of 1.1503 with the first target at 1.1628 in order to test the daily resistance 1. The level of 1.1628 is a good place to take profits. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 1.1628, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 1.1676 today. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.1503, a further decline to 1.1426 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for August 24, 2018

analytics5b7fc09a6d3ba.png

Overview:

The AUD/USD pair continued to move upwards from the level of 0.7263. Since yesterday, the pair has risen from the level of 0.7263 (the level of 0.7263 coincides with the ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci Expansion). In consequence, the AUD/USD pair broke resistance at 0.7263, which turned into strong support at the level of 0.7329. In the H1 time frame, the level of 0.7263 is expected to act as major support today. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish market. The price is still above the moving average (100) and (50). From this point, we expect the AUD/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 0.7263 towards the target level of 0.7299. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.7299, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 0.7299 so as to reach the second target at 0.7359 (pivot point). At the same time, if the AUD/USD pair is able to break out the level of 0.7234, the market will decline further to 0.7204.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 24, 2018

analytics5b7fbf6578774.png

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair couldn't break support at the level of 0.6624. The level of 0.6624 coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement which is expected to act as major support today. Equally important, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward, while the moving average (100) is headed to the upside. Accordingly, the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the EMA 100 is pointing to the uptrend. This suggests that the pair will probably go above the daily pivot point (0.6676) in the coming hours. The NZD/USD pair will demonstrate strength following a breakout of the high at 0.9958. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 0.6676 with the first target at 0.6712. Then, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to 0.6733 mark and further to 0.6759 levels. The level of 0.6759 will act as strong resistance, because the double top is already set at 0.6759. On the other hand, the daily strong support is seen at 0.6624. If the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the level of 0.6624, the market will decline further to 0.6541 (double bottom).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

CAD/JPY Reversed Off Resistance, Prepare For Further Drop

CAD/JPY reversed off its resistance at 85.44 (100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where it is expected to drop further to its support at 84.56 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support). Stochastic (55, 5, 3) reversed off its resistance at 96% where a corresponding drop is expected.

CAD/JPY reversed off its resistance where we expect to see a further drop.

Sell below 85.44. Stop loss at 85.71. Take profit at 84.56.

.

.

#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal

USD/CAD is approaching its resistance at 1.3116 (61.8% & 100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support). Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reversal is expected.

USD/CAD is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 1.3116. Stop loss at 1.3141. Take profit at 1.3055.

.

.

.

#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of EUR/USD for August 24, 2018

EUR/USD is trading below 1.16 but the pullback has not been as strong as the previous declines. EUR/USD has broken above the Ichimoku cloud in the short-term and as long as price holds above 1.15 bulls have hopes of turning the trend in their favor.

analytics5b7fafb9779b7.png

Support is found at 1.15 where we find the 38% Fibonacci retracement, the 4-hour kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) and the previous horizontal support breakdown level. Next support is at 1.1470 where we find the 4 hour Kumo (cloud). Resistance is at 1.1630. Breaking above this level will most probably push EUR/USD above 1.17.

If price pulls back lower towards 1.15-1.1470 and support is held, I would look to enter long positions in EUR/USD and would add to longs on a break above 1.1670 where the next major resistance is found.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Gold for August 24, 2018

The Gold price pulled back towards $1,183 as expected after the short-term top just above $1,200. The Gold price was expected to pull back at least towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement and it did. Correction might be over. A new higher high above $1,203 will open the way for a push towards $1,220.

analytics5b7fad8dea3c3.png

The Gold price reached the 38% Fibonacci retracement and is bouncing. If price breaks the recent low we should expect it to move towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement next around $1,175. If gold price does not break the recent $1,183 low and breaks above Monday's highs, we should then expect Gold to see $1,220 over the next few weeks.

So keep an eye on $1,183 and $1,175 which are the most important support levels. Breaking below $1,175 will open the way for a move towards $1,160 and even lower. Resistance levels above are found at $1,203. Recapturing the $1,200 level will give at least a short-term boost towards $1,220 or higher.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 24/08/2018

Markit Economics presented the preliminary PMI results from the Eurozone early in the morning. The report shows that despite the forecasts assuming the maintenance of PMI for the industrial sector in the Eurozone at the current level (55.1), its drop to 54.6 was finally recorded. Data on the services sector was slightly better, according to forecasts, the index increased to 54.4 from 54.2 previously. However, it turns out that such poor results of the industrial PMI caused that despite the forecasts assuming an increase in the value of the collective PMI index to 54.5 from 54.3 previously, it eventually only increased to 54.4.

In the early afternoon, the market's participants met one of the most important data from the United States. Of course, here is the weekly report of the US Department of Labor on the number of applications for unemployment benefit. As reported by the Department of Labor, the number of pre-declared unemployed in the week ending on August 18 this year was at the level of 210,000, which means a drop by 2,000 compared to the previous week. A positive impression of this publication is also supported by the fact that the surveyed economists expected a growth of up to 215,000. The final reading turned out to be a pleasant surprise. It also fell four-week average, which amounted to 213 750, which means a decrease by 1 750 in relation to the moving average of the previous week. A positive overtone of this publication was also supported by the fact that the number of continuing applications for unemployment benefits in the week ending on August 11, fell to 1,727 thousand against 1,729 thousand a week earlier. The forecasts assumed, however, that the number of continuing jobless claims will increase to 1,731 thousand.

A little bit later, Markit Economics shared with the global investors next PMI results, this time from the United States. According to the published report based on the preliminary data on a monthly basis, the industrial PMI will fall off in August this year to 54.5, which is a result not only of the previous publication (55.3), but also from already pessimistic forecasts (55.1). Data on the services sector were equally poor, however, despite forecasts assuming only a symbolic drop in the value of the ratio to 55.9 from 56.0 previously, depreciation was finally recorded up to 55.2. Nevertheless, it is worth remembering that decline in the value of the indicator only suggests a slowdown in growth in the industrial and service sector. As long as its value is above 50 points the economy is growing, but a bit slower though.

The market participants also got to know the results of home sales in the US primary market for July this year. According to the latest Census Bureau report in July, this year sales of new real estate in the United States dropped to 627 thousand from 638 thousand which were recorded in June 2018. The drop in sales by 1.7% led to the expectations of economists who expected an increase of 2.2%. Consensus assumed the sale of existing properties at the level of 643 thousand.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market bounced from the level of 94.93 on a wave of the solid data from the US economy, but was capped by the blue trend line around the level of 95.66. The market has made a kind of an Evening star candlestick pattern and the price reversed towards the level of 95.44. The next support is seen at the level of 95.15, but the market conditions are still favoring the possibility of another spike higher towards the 96.08 level.

analytics5b7f9c9801865.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for August 24, 2018

USD/CHF has recently breached below the 0.9850 area with a daily close which was not quite sufficient to keep pushing the price down consistently with target towards the 0.97 area. CHF has been dominating in the pair recently despite the recent positive USD economic reports.

Despite having worse economic report results, certain gain on the CHF side is quite surprising, but indicating a shift in the market sentiment in the process. Recently, CHF Trade Balance report has been published with a decrease to 2.26B from the previous figure of 2.56B which was expected to increase to 2.85B. Ahead of the Credit Suisse Economic Expectations report next week, certain volatility may be observed on the gains of CHF in the process.

On the USD side, today, Core Durable Goods Orders report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.2% and Fed Chair Powell's speech is going to be held which is expected to impact the current momentum of USD in the process. Though USD has been quite weak against CHF, but any positive outcome of the speech is expected to regain the lost momentum for further USD gains.

As of the current scenario, today's high impact USD economic reports and events are expected to provide definite momentum in the market, whereas a positive outcome is expected to inject strength for the USD to regain momentum against CHF in the process or else CHF may lead the way further in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite volatile and corrective at the edge of the 0.9850 area from where the price is expected to retrace higher towards the 0.9950 area before pushing lower towards the 0.9700 area in the coming days. As the price remains below the 0.9980 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 0.9700, 0.9850

RESISTANCE: 0.9980

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5b7f9b142b2c6.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 24/08/2018

The Australian dollar regained some losses from yesterday's session thanks to the election of a new prime minister. Scott Morrison was previously the Minister of Treasury and chairman of the Liberal Party of Australia. A 50-year-old politician is considered to be a safe and good choice, as evidenced by the reaction on the financial markets.

Malcolm Turnbull stepped down from the prime minister's chair, but at the end of his term, he said a few bitter words. He believes that he has been treated unfairly by his colleagues and colleagues from the party. He announced that he would soon leave the parliament. On the other hand, he congratulated Morrison on the appointment of the prime minister and thanked him for his loyal job as the Minister of the Treasury. He wished him all the best on his new career path.

Three candidates applied for the prime minister's seat, and Morrison is the most stable choice. He is known for his decisive approach to governing and knowledge of the economy. He can enjoy his position at best for less than a year. In May 2019, parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place, but much is said in Australia about their acceleration.

In the meantime, economists issued a commentary on the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia. According to them, the central bank will not raise interest rates for a long time. The loosening should start in less than two years. Economists believe that there will be two rate hikes in the first half of 2020. According to earlier forecasts, the loosening was to start already in the first half of next year.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the technical support at the level of 0.7246 although new local low was made at 0.7237. The price is currently trading just below the 38% Fibo of the recent swing down at the level of 0.7292. The market conditions look oversold, but the momentum is still below its fifty level, so after the local pull-back completes, the downtrend is expected to continue.

analytics5b7f9944e335f.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 24/08/2018

On Friday, the 24th of August, the event calendar is light in important data releases. Overnight, the National CPI data from Japan were released and it missed the expectations (0.9% vs. 1.0% expected). The market participants are waiting for German 2 quarter GDP release and Durable Goods Orders from the US. There is a speech scheduled from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the end of the day.

EUR/USD analysis for 24/08/2018:

The White House administration has published a statement regarding trade with China. According to the US, governments around the world are beginning to realize the fact that the Chinese do not strive for partnership on the level of trade with other countries, but only their dominance.

The United States will continue to oppose China on unequal terms of trade. The statement appeared by surprise. Earlier, people talked about calming the tension between countries. China stated that they had a constructive conversation about trade with the US. The White House also confirmed the progress in conducting negotiations.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced a little from the technical support at the level of 1.1529, but it is worth to notice, that trading is still being made in overbought market conditions. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1627 and any violation of this level would lead to another spike towards the level of 1.1746. On the other hand, the technical supports are seen at the levels of 1.1506, 1.1480 and 1.1445.

analytics5b7f97a881e05.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for August 24, 2018

AUD/JPY has been quite corrective and volatile recently after being dominated by the bears for a long period of time, whereas certain bullish momentum can be currently observed. AUD has been performing quite well with the recent economic reports which helped the currency to shift the market sentiment towards it apart from JPY.

Recently, AUD MI Leading Index report has been published with a slight decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.1% and Construction Work Done has performed better than expected resulting to 1.6% though decreasing from 2.4% which was expected to be at 0.7% and CB Leading Index has also increased to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.0%. Moreover, recently, RBA has showed an increase in Government Banking Products and Services and a growth in GDP along with Employment which did help the market sentiment to shift their bias.

On the JPY side, today, JPY National Core CPI report has been published unchanged at 0.8% which was expected to increase to 0.9% and SPPI has been also published unchanged at 1.1% which was expected to increase to 1.2%. The worse results did weaken the JPY gains in the process.

As of the current scenario, AUD has been performing quite well with the fundamentals, whereas JPY has been found struggling in the process. Though AUD is gaining quite impulsively, but it is expected to be short-lived as JPY has strong long-term potentials to gain momentum again in the future. For the coming days, certain gain on the AUD may be observed until JPY comes up with something positive with the high impact reports.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite corrective at the edge of the 80.50 area, from where the price has pushed impulsively higher recently leading to a strong bullish pressure. The MACD has also signaled a convergence in the process, indicating further bullish momentum with a target towards 82.00 and further higher if a daily close is observed above 82.00. As the price remains above the 80.50 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 80.50

RESISTANCE: 82.00

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: CORRECTIVE

analytics5b7f9566eda7f.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 24/08/2018

The Chinese government will take steps to further block access to more than 120 cryptocurrency exchanges, whose sites are still available on the Asian continent.

According to local news sites in Hong Kong, South China Morning Post reports that authorities associated with a leading remedy group on online financial risks will block IP addresses belonging to 124 cryptocurrency trading platforms that still serve residents despite local bans.

The financial media reported for the first time in February that the People's Bank of China was preparing new measures to liquidate the local cryptocurrency trading industry, which is still flourishing despite the ban introduced for the first time in September 2017.

These activities are the latest phenomenon, which increasingly appears to be a coordinated action of the Chinese authorities. Last Friday, authorities in downtown Chaoyang in Beijing distributed a ban on organizing events related to crypto-currencies in public places, such as shopping malls and hotels. At the same time, the Chinese social media giant WeChat has closed accounts kept by at least eight Blockchain facilities and cryptocurrency media for allegedly infringing regulations from official online censors.

Some industry observers said that although these measures do not seem too serious when considered in isolation, they are probably announcing a wider time constraint in relation to the anniversary of the first Chinese (ICO) and the ban on cryptocurrency trading.

Last month, PBoC confirmed its commitment to act vigilantly to prevent foreign ICOs that is illegal in China, from marketing their tokens on the continent. Despite this, ICO fraudsters have managed to earn hundreds of millions of dollars from Chinese investors. Only this month, the company named Shenzhen Puyin Blockchain Group raised 60 million dollars through three separate ICOs, only to make the biggest fraud in ICO history.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still trading inside of the consolidation zone between the levels of $6,179 - $6,782. There is an internal trend line, marked in blue, that will act as a technical support for the price. The nearest resistance is seen at the level of $6,514 and $6,597.

analytics5b7f9564bea0d.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Aug 24, 2018

analytics5b7f8a0aa6c11.jpg

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Belgian NBB Business Climate, and German Final GDP q/q. The US will release the Economic Data too such as Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1599. Strong Resistance:1.1592. Original Resistance: 1.1581. Inner Sell Area: 1.1570.Target Inner Area: 1.1543. Inner Buy Area: 1.1516. Original Support: 1.1505. Strong Support: 1.1494. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1487.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar created a mirage

The fundamental analysis is not static. The most serious divergence in the economic growth of the US and the eurozone from 2014, the rate increase at 3-4 Fed meetings in 2018 and the ECB retention expected on September 2019, does not mean that the EUR/USD pair is necessarily to move down. These "bearish" drivers are mostly played already. The question is whether the US GDP will continue in the same spirit as it did in the second half of this year, and whether the euro-zone economy will continue to slow down? If not, the euro will start licking wounds.

Assessing the minutes of the last meeting of the FOMC, the Federal Reserve representatives are beginning to express concerns about the negative impact of trade wars, aggressive monetary policy and the gradual reduction of the effect of tax reform towards the US economy. At the same time, the revaluation of the dollar is capable of slowing down inflation. As a result, the reasons for raising the federal funds rate will be significantly less than now. The slowdown in the normalization process will be an important factor in the growth of EUR/USD.

The main reasons for the weak start of the eurozone in 2018 involves the strengthening of the euro in 2017, trade wars, bad weather, strikes by German workers and the flu epidemic. The last three are temporary, the truce between the EU and the US reduces geopolitical risks, and the fall of the main currency pair by almost 8% of the February high levels that provides an excellent opportunity for the European exporters to prove himself.

The policy deserves special attention. The risks of the withdrawal of the eurosceptic government in Italy from the EU requirements of a 3% budget deficit led to sales of local bonds. Non-residents withdrew from the debt market of the republic worth € 34 billion and € 38 billion on a net basis in June-July. However, is there any guarantee that the outflow will continue? If Rome takes an adequate budget, reducing political risks will open the way for the EUR/USD to move to the north. On the contrary, the United States may begin to experience problems as the November elections to Congress approach.

Divergence in economic growth and in monetary policy led to the fact that for the first time, since early 2017 speculative positions on all G10 currencies against the US dollar reached the red zone. At the same time, the recent Reuters' poll of experts indicate that the "American" rally is unlikely to extend. Closing long positions on the USD index will help reverse the downtrend in the EUR/USD.

Dynamics of speculative positions by G10 currencies

analytics5b7e9981c54c7.png

Thus, the strong positions of the US dollar resemble a mirage in the desert, but personally I do not have a crystal ball to predict the future. The scenario described above looks quite realistic, but there is a truce between the EU and the States to end, and political risks in Italy will increase, as it need to make adjustments.

Technically, the "bulls" for EUR/USD are set to activate and implement the pattern of "Cheating-ejection". To do this, they need to return the quotes of the pair to the middle of the trading range 1.15-1.18, and then take the resistance by 1.17-1.1705 by storm.

EUR / USD daily chart

analytics5b7e998e2e88c.png

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Aug 24, 2018

analytics5b7f87f69780a.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the SPPI y/y, National Core CPI y/y and the US will release some Economic Data such as Durable Goods Ordersm/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3: 111.97. Resistance. 2: 111.75. Resistance. 1: 111.53. Support. 1: 111.26. Support. 2: 111.04. Support. 3: 110.83.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 24, 2018

analytics5b7f7994aac28.png

EUR/NZD has finally broken above short-term important resistance at 1.7355. This former resistance should now act as support if a re-test is needed.

The break above resistance at 1.7355 should have paved the way for a continuation higher towards 1.7484 on the way towards 1.7924 and 1.8369 as the next important upside targets. EUR/NZD is now in a position where it could start accelerate quiet powerfully higher, but we think a clear break above 1.7484 will be needed to see the expected upside acceleration.

R3: 1.7668

R2: 1.7578

R1: 1.7484

Pivot: 1.7366

S1: 1.7355

S2: 1.7325

S3: 1.7281

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 1.7330 and we have placed our stop at 1.7275.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 24, 2018

analytics5b7f77145bb73.png

Red wave iii extended even further than first expected and is currently testing the 200% extension of red wave i. Even though red wave iii could extend further towards the 261.8% extension target at 129.74, the rally in red wave iii looks a bit overextended and could need a rest by now for a correction in red wave iv.

A correction in red wave iv should ideally take us down to the 38.2% corrective target of red wave iii at 127.55 before the final pop in red wave v towards resistance in the 129.45 - 129.74 area.

Short-term a break below 128.19 will confirm that red wave iii has completed and red wave iv is developing.

R3: 129.74

R2: 129.45

R1: 128.77

Pivot: 128.19

S1: 127.90

S2: 127.55

S3: 127.33

Trading recommendation:

We took profit on our last 50% holding at 128.75 for a nice 249 pips profit. We will wait a buy EUR again at 127.60.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for August 23, 2018

Bitcoin has been extremely volatile and indecisive recently which broke above $6,500 yesterday but closed below the area with a daily candle. The price has been residing inside the range of $6,000 to $6,500 area from where the range is still continued without any definite momentum in the process. The dynamic level of 20 EMA has acted quite strong as resistance for the price keeping it lower which is expected to inject further volatility for the coming days. Despite the recent False-Break, the bullish bias is expected to continue as the price remains above $5,000 area and breaking above $6,500 with a daily close is expected to inject further impulsive momentum in the process.

SUPPORT: 6,000

RESISTANCE: 6,500, 8,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5b7ede4d7caf1.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for August 23, 2013

Yesterday, the dollar continued to lose its positions caused by the caution before the publication of the minutes of meeting of the Federal Commission for Open Market Operations and housing sales data in the secondary market, which declined by 0.7%. Earlier, sales were forecasted to increase by 0.6% but the data showed that they have been declining for four months in a row, which should obviously cause concern. However, the content of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission for open market operations calmed the investors, as the Fed plans to raise the refinancing rate in September. This means that before the end of this year, the refinancing rate will be increased twice which was the reason for the dollar growth.

Today, preliminary data on business activity indices in Europe are published and expectations for them are optimistic. Although the business activity index in the manufacturing sector is projected to decrease from 55.1 to 55.0, while the service sector index may increase from 54.2 to 54.4, and given the much greater weight of the services sector, the composite index will increase from 54.3 up to 54.5. But it is much more important that the minutes of the ECB meeting on monetary policy will be published today. Given the continuing rise in inflation, as well as the assurances of ECB representatives, investors hope to see the confirmation that the quantitative easing program will no longer be extended. For the most part this has already been taken into account by the market, but one more confirmation will allow the single European currency to find new forces for growth.

Preliminary data on business activity indices are also coming out in the US, but the forecasts for them are not so comforting. Thus, the business activity index in the manufacturing sector should decrease from 55.3 to 55.0, while the service sector came in from 56.0 to 55.9, which will lead to a reduction in the composite index from 55.7 to 55.3. Also, the number of applications for unemployment benefits should increase by 13,000. The number of initial applications may increase by 3 thousand, and the number of repeated ones by 10 thousand. This generally indicates a weakening of the dollar, but the annual meeting today in Jackson-Hole starts. It is likely that investors will remain cautious waiting for any news. Moreover, there are hints that the US will not tighten trade barriers, at least with respect to Europe or even reduce them. But these are only speculation and rumors, so it's better to wait for further details.

The euro/dollar currency pair shows an active upward interest and reached the value of 1.1621, where the zone of the periodic level is 1.1620 / 1.1650. It is possible to assume that the current rollback will go to the main range support levels of 1510 / 1,1550, where the positions will be considered relative.

analytics5b7e608cdde9e.png

The pound / dollar currency pair continued its upward movement, but the pair felt the periodic ceiling at 1.2934 level, declining the quotation and forming a pullback. It is probable to assume a temporary fluctuation within the limits of 1.2860 / 1.2920, where it is worthwhile to track fixations beyond the borders.

analytics5b7e609833c3e.png

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Eurozone activity is growing, and US relations with China are deteriorating

While the matter is, the order of the US Customs and Border Service to impose new duties on goods imported from China came into force today. The Chinese authorities did not wait long and introduced new retaliatory trade duties worth $16 billion.

It is worth noting that at the same time, the second round of negotiations aimed at resolving the trade conflict, which the United States began more than a month ago, continues. So what kind of agreements can we talk about if even during the "truce" protective measures are introduced?

Let me remind you that the new 25% duty on the part of the United States applies to chemicals, machinery and equipment produced in China, as well as a number of other goods.

Today, a number of preliminary data on the PMI of France, Germany and the Eurozone were released.

Activity in Germany increased, despite the fact that the preliminary index of PMI supply managers for the manufacturing sector in August this year fell to 56.1 points against 56.9 in July. Economists had expected this figure to be 56.5 points. But the preliminary index of PMI supply managers for the service sector in August rose to 55.2 points, against 54.1, while economists expected it to decline to 54.2 points.

Germany's composite PMI purchasing managers index rose to 55.7 points in August, from 55.0 points in July.

Business activity in France in August also showed growth due to the services sector. According to IHS Markit, the composite index of supply managers in France in August rose to 55.1 points against 54.4 points in July.

In view of this, the growth of activity in the eurozone economy in August also accelerated.

This suggests that, despite the strengthening of trade conflicts and weakening external demand, the eurozone economy is in perfect order.

According to IHS Markit, the preliminary composite index of supply managers of the eurozone PMI in August was 54.4 points against 54.3 points in July. Let me remind you that the index value above 50 indicates an increase in activity. Economists had forecast the index to rise to 54.5 points in August.

analytics5b7ea35cae585.png

Today, several statements were made by the ECB representative Jens Weidmann, who noted the economic recovery in Germany, but expressed concerns about increasing trade risks. According to Weidmann, the European Central Bank will wind down the stimulus only gradually.

The technical picture remained unchanged. There is no need to hurry with buying the euro yet. Optimal levels located in the area of 1.1450, and 1.1490. The main task of buyers is to break the resistance of 1.1620 and reach new highs of 1.1660 and 1.1690.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the US session on August 23 EUR/USD

To open long positions for EURUSD, it is required:

Buyers are trying to return to the market, and while they do it. Trade is conducted above the range of 1.1579, which keeps further upside potential with a purpose of updating the weekly high at 1.1617 and further access to reach the resistance level of 1.1653, where I recommend to take profit. In case of a return to the level of 1.1579, it is best to return to purchases on a false breakdown from 1.1538 or on a rebound from 1.1493.

To open short positions for EURUSD, it is required:

Only a return to the support level of 1.1579 in the second half of the day will be a signal to sell the euro in order to update the daily low in the area of 1.1538, and then a decrease in the support area of 1.1493, where I recommend to lock in the profit. In case of further growth of the EUR/USD pair, you can sell on a false breakout from 1.1617 or on a rebound from 1.1653.

analytics5b7e9cca36c56.png

Indicator description

  • Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 23/08/2018

The minutes of the July meeting of the ECB did not bring any surprises and generally confirm the position presented earlier. The members of the Governing Council are satisfied with the way the markets have received their communication about forward guidance from June (QE ended until December, interest rates unchanged at least until the end of the summer of 2019). Risks to the outlook for economic growth are assessed as balanced, despite the uncertainty surrounding global factors - mainly in the form of protectionism. The document also states that risks around inflation prospects are weakening.

Nevertheless, the head of the Bundesbank and a member of the Governing Council of the ECB, Jens Weidmann, reminds that he is one of the most hawkish monetary policymakers. In today's speech he said that the time has come to move away from a very expansive policy, and the ending of QE is just the first step. The standardization process will continue slowly over the next years to avoid unnecessary delay. He added that the CPI forecast is 1.7% in 2020 and it coincides with the bank's goals.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the news was released. The market is still trading around the level of 61% Fibo retracement at 1.1575 so no major breakout occured yet. The nearest support is located at the level of 1.1529 and the nearest resistance is seen at the level of 1.1630. Please notice, the market conditions are overgough and the momentum indicator is pointing south, so it looks like a short-term correction is on the way.

analytics5b7ed76589c73.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com