USDCAD: USD to lose grounds ahead of FOMC meeting . June 19, 2019

The Canadian dollar gained momentum and closed with a bearish daily candle yesterday after. However, the US dollar still remains the dominant currency in the pair.

Ahead of the FOMC meeting today, USD slightly gave in to CAD trying to establish a strong bullish trend in the pair. Some experts think that the Fed is expected to give details on the upcoming rate cuts in today's meeting. The US dollar may be affected by the Fed's decision. Financial markets have gotten used to the Federal Reserve adjusting its benchmark interest rate in small increments. The target range for the federal funds rate currently stands at 2.25% to 2.5%, which means the Fed many not have enough ammunition to fight a full-blown recession. That makes it more important for the Fed to be aggressive when it cuts, getting the most impact out of every step downward. Federal Reserve inflation running persistently below the Fed's 2% target, and inflation expectations falling, that means the potential negative consequences of cutting too much are meaningfully reduced. The Fed is less likely to unleash unwanted higher inflation with aggressive cuts.

At the extreme, that sort of volatility could feed into the real economy and make the Fed's job in coming weeks even more complicated. The federal funds rate has been unchanged since December after a three-year cycle of monetary policy tightening that began slowly but ended with roughly quarterly rate hikes over 2017 and 2018. Additionally, US Building Permits report was published. The reading was unchanged 1.29M. Economists expected the value to increase to 1.30M. The reading of Housing Starts report decreased to 1.27M from 1.28M but performed better than expected.

On the other hand, today Canadian CPI report is going to be published. The figure which is expected to drop to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.4%, Common CPI is expected to grow to 1.9% from the previous value of 1.8%, Median CPI is expected to be unchanged at 1.9% and Trimmed CPI is also expected to be unchanged at 2.0%. Ahead of the G20 meeting, the Canadian government is going to speak with US senator about the upcoming trade conditions. The Oil Sector and Housing market have started to stabilize which indicates a strong boost in the domestic market. Amid such news, the Canadian dollar may increase profits.

As of the current scenario, CAD is expected to regain and sustain the bearish momentum against USD. As the Fed clears the doubts, the pair is expected to create a certain direction.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 1.3350 support area after an impulsive bearish daily close. If it creates a way for the price lower, then the price is expected to push towards 1.3200-20 support area. Though the pair has been quite volatile, the FOMC meeting's outcome today is expected to put pressure on the pair.

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Control zones GOLD 19.06.19

This week, the main resistance is the June monthly short circuit. A test of this zone will result in a sentence in most cases. A small out of the zone is possible, since the weekly range of the middle stroke is located just above it. The "false breakout" pattern of last week's high is suitable for making a trading decision to sell.

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Shopping in the current segment of the market is no longer profitable, since the likelihood of large sales has increased significantly.

An alternative model of growth and consolidation above the monthly CZ will allow to look for sales prices in the future with a probability of working off 90%. Work outside the monthly short-circuit implies the refusal of purchases and the search for the "false breakout" pattern for entering a short position.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, June 19,2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data such as Italian Trade Balance, Current Account, and German PPI m/m will be released. The US will publish such economic data as Federal Funds Rate and Crude Oil Inventories. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1251. Strong Resistance:1.1245.Original Resistance: 1.1234. Inner Sell Area:1.1223.Target Inner Area: 1.1197. Inner Buy Area: 1.1171. Original Support: 1.1160.Strong Support: 1.1149. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1143. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, June 19,2019

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Today, Japan will release the Trade Balance reposrt while the US will publish such economic data as Federal Funds Rate and Crude Oil Inventories.So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:Resistance. 3:109.15.Resistance. 2:108.95.Resistance. 1:108.73.Support. 1:108.46.Support. 2:108.25.Support. 3:108.04. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 19/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Lithuania is preparing new regulations regulating cryptocurrency transactions, requiring enterprises to prove the identity of customers, reports the local newspapper.

As part of its obligations to comply with EU anti-money laundering regulations, the Lithuanian Ministry of Finance will seek to fully formalize the cryptographic exchange operations.

Parliament approved the move during the Wednesday meeting, while the timeframe for implementing the regulation remains uncertain. Once the regulations come into force, any transactions with a value in excess of 1,000 euros including a cryptocurrency - whether on or from fiat or from one cryptocurrency to another - will face rigorous reporting requirements.

Stock exchanges or similar companies will need to collect information about the buyer's identity, while large operations over EUR 15,000 will oblige them to inform the Lithuanian investigation service on financial crimes. Slightly different rules will apply to issuers of tokens - i.e. ICO - for which the requirement to collect accurate information will be created when sales exceed EUR 3,000.

At present, Lithuania does not formally regulate its sphere of cryptographic exchange. Changes occur when jurisdictions around the world are preparing to implement the controversial recommendations of the Intergovernmental Task Force on Financial Activities. Guidelines on which all G20 countries have agreed will be published on June 21 and will impose similar identification requirements for cryptographic transactions.

Technical Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has fallen out of the ascending channel around the level of $270.00 and made a new local low at the level of $259.66, so it hit the technical support. This is the first clue that the top for the wave (b) is in place. There is still wave (c) of the overall corrective cycle wave 4 missing, so the market can continue the down move towards the level of $253.09 any time now.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $345.37

WR2 - $311.54

WR1 - $291.71

Weekly Pivot - $256.95

WS1 - $239.45

WS2 - $203.99

WS3 - $185.39

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current uptrend wave is the wave 4, which is a corrective wave and after is completed, the uptrend should resume.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 19/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The social media giant, Facebook, today published the white book of its long-awaited project of financial infrastructure based on cryptocurrencies and Blockchain.

According to the document, Facebook's global stablecoin, referred to as "libra", will operate on the native and scalable Blockchain Libra and will be supported by a reserve of assets allegedly "designed to give it the internal value" and limit fluctuations in value. These assets consist of a basket of bank deposits and short-term government securities that will be kept in the Libra reserve for each token issued.

The new cryptocurrency will be managed by a non-profit Swiss consortium - "Libra Association" - which includes members of Mastercard, PayPal, Visa, Stripe, eBay, Coinbase, Andreessen Horowitz and Uber.

Facebook allegedly plans to expand the association to about 100 members until Libra was launched in the first half of 2020.

The Libra Association is managed by the Libra Association Council. Board members are initially founders, each of whom runs a validator network node and was required to make a minimum investment of $ 10 million to seal the position. Each investment worth 10 million dollars provides the entity with one vote.

Facebook also revealed the release of Libra Investment Token - a user-oriented cryptocurrency distinct from the global libra - which can be bought or distributed in the form of a dividend for the founding members of the association and accredited investors.

Technical Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local top at the level of $9,457 and it might be the temporary top for the wave 3 of the overall impulsive wave progression. The sub-waves 1 and 2 were completed and now sub-wave 3 and wave 4 are unfolding. The downside is pretty much limited to the level of $8,800 and that might be the target for the wave 4 correction. Please notice the market has broken above the trendline resistance but has trouble to stay above it for a longer period of time.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,709

WR2 - $10,500

WR1 - $9,878

Weekly Pivot - $8,649

WS1 - $7,945

WS2 - $6,737

WS3 - $6,016

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current uptrend wave is wave 3, which is an impulsive wave, so this is the best wave to trade. The target for wave 3 is seen at the level of $9,826.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 19/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has broken through the technical support at the level of 1.1206 and made a new local low at the level of 1.1181. The market is now moving inside of a descending channel and the bears aim for the level of 1.1118. As long as the price stays under the technical resistance at the level of 1.1250 and under the short-term trendline, the outlook remains bearish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1413

WR2 - 1.1376

WR1 - 1.1277

Weekly Pivot - 1.1237

WS1 - 1.1132

WS2 - 1.1096

WS3 - 1.0995

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is now up. All the local pull-backs and corrections should be treated as another opportunity to open the buy orders for a better price. There is a downtrend reversal sign on the weekly time-frame chart, which is why the recent move up might be the beginning of the new uptrend, but it needs confirmation and so far there is no clear confirmation yet

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 19/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has made Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern at the level of 1.2511, so the bulls are trying to bounce. The momentum is weak and negative, so it supports the move down, but the market conditions are starting to bounce from the oversold levels, so some kind of the local-pull back is expected before the move down will continue. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2559 and 1.2605. The higher time frame trend is still down and there are no signs of any trend reversal.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2846

WR2 - 1.2797

WR1 - 1.2673

Weekly Pivot - 1.2620

WS1 - 1.2493

WS2 - 1.2439

WS3 - 1.2301

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is still down. All the local bounces and corrections should be treated as another opportunity to open the sell orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is down and there are no signs of any trend reversal.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 19 - 2019

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GBP/JPY is currently testing resistance near 136.56 may cap the upside for renewed downside pressure towards the 134.52 target to complete wave 2 and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave 3.

Only a direct break above resistance at 136.94 will indicate wave 2 has completed prematurely and wave 3 already is developing for an ultimate break back above the 148.87 peak.

R3: 137.35

R2: 136.94

R1: 136.56

Pivot: 136.08

S1: 135.85

S2: 135.35

S3: 135.00

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBP at 134.65 or upon a break above 136.94

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 19 - 2019

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The break back below short-term important support at 121.22 is disappointing and has invalidated our bullish view for now. This break instead mean more downside pressure towards 119.65 for wave ii should complete and a new impulsive rally should be expected.

Only a direct break above resistance at 122.13 will indicate a low is in place and a new impulsive rally can begin.

R3: 122.13

R2: 121.89

R1: 121.65

Pivot: 121.34

S1: 121.04

S2: 120.75

S3: 120.50

Trading recommendation:

Out stop at 121.20 was hit for a small loss of 55 pips. We will only buy at 119.75 or upon a break above 122.13

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Trading plan for EURUSD for June 19, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair dropped below the 1.1200 handle yesterday towards 1.1800 as expected. It looks like the pair needs to print one last low to complete the trade cycle before it produces a meaningful retracement. Please note that 1.1348 levels remain a significant potential resistance and any intraday rallies are expected to be capped below that. We have presented the Fibonacci levels here and 1.1280/90 levels remain quite significant for the next bearish move. The past support turned resistance zone also around the same zone (1.1280/90) which could produce a bearish reversal. Those who took short positions earlier from the 1.1320 mark as suggested might want to book profits and stay flat, waiting for the next opportunity. Look out for intraday rallies towards 1.1280/90 levels to re-enter on the short side, bottom line is that prices should stay below 1.1348 levels for now, to keep the bearish structure intact.

Trading zone:

1. Take profits on the short positions taken from 1.1320 levels earlier.

2. Enter short again around 1.1280/90 levels, stop at 1.1350, target is below 1.1107.

Good luck!

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Forecast for EUR/USD for June 19, 2019

EUR/USD

Everything is bad for the euro on Tuesday. Eurozone's trade balance for April was 15.3 billion euros against expectations of 16.4 billion, the eurozone ZEW business sentiment index for June fell from -1.6 to -20.2 points, Mario Draghi reiterated that the ECB might lower the rate further and directly buy back assets on its balance sheet "in case of anything." In the US, the number of housing starts in May was 1.27 million against an expectation of 1.24 million and the previous figure was revised up from 1.24 million to 1.28 million.

As a result, the euro broke through the support of the MACD line on a daily scale, dropping 25 points in a day.

Today, the Fed decides on monetary policy, the head of the regulator Jerome Powell will make comments. What is the intrigue? Markets are expecting three reductions this year. Expectations are naturally very high. If the Fed makes it clear that there can only be one (in July or later), then the euro will go down in disappointment with investors.

The first goal of the euro is 1.1156 - the Fibonacci level 110.0% on the daily chart, consolidating below the level opens the way to the second target of 1.1075 - the Fibonacci level 123.6%. All indicators on the daily and four-hour charts are decreasing.

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Forecast for GBP/USD for June 19, 2019

GBP/USD

On Tuesday, the pound sterling failed to consolidate below the target level of 1.2530, which created a convergence with the Marlin oscillator on the daily scale chart, which creates an increased probability of price growth to the previous target level of 1.2610.

But the daily marlin signal line might go below the pink line of the technical line, and in this case the convergence is easily converted into a trend decline of the indicator.

The basis for this scenario might be due to the expected weak UK inflation readings in May that will be published today. The base CPI is predicted to decrease from 1.8% y/y to 1.6% y/y, the total CPI may drop from 2.1% y/y to 2.0% y/y. The retail price index is expected to be 2.9% y/y compared to 3.0% y/y earlier, rising prices for residential real estate are projected to slow from 1.4% y/y to 1.1% y/y. In addition, the balance of production orders for June is expected to deteriorate from -10 to -11.

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No less important is today's Fed meeting. In case investors get disappointed, for those who are expecting to hear about three rate cuts this year, but have received information about only one reduction, the British pound may also be subject to being sold.

The option of consolidating the price below 1.2530 and the pound's further decrease to 1.2350 is taken by us as the main one.

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on June 19, 2019

AUD / USD pair

Yesterday, the Australian dollar grew by 24 points after testing the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart below. On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator is in a growing position, but the price still remains below the balance line (red indicator) and the MACD line (blue indicator). In this situation, we expect that the price will not be able to overcome the resistance of the price channel.

Before the price, the goal of 0.6780 is open, which is the support on the downward line of the price channel on the daily chart. In fact, the channel is marked on a weekly schedule, with the top in January 2018.

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Control zones EURUSD 6.19.19

The downward movement of the current week continued the momentum of the previous one. The main purpose of the fall can be considered the range of the average weekly course. It is located near the June low, which makes these levels decisive in the medium term. For those who keep sales from the current or last week, it is necessary to transfer them to breakeven, as the test of weekly CZ 1.1188-1.1172 can lead to a strong increase in demand.

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Today, the pair is trading within a weekly control zone, which obliges us to consider the "false breakout" pattern of yesterday's low when entering purchases.

An alternative growth model will be formed if yesterday's low is updated, followed by strong growth with absorption. This will make it possible for you to buy the instrument from current levels and hold it to the zone of the average weekly move at the top. This model has a 50% probability, which makes it profitable to trade.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones AUDUSD 06.19.19

Last week, the close of trading occurred outside the middle course, which allows you to work in the purchases with a probability of a return of 90%. The level of the lower limit of the average course of last week is at 0.6914. For those who have already entered a long position, this level will be the main goal of growth. On the way of the upward movement, the WCZ 1/2 0.6906-0.6899 will be the first resistance, the test of which will provide the opportunity to determine the next priority.

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It is important to understand that the upward movement is still a correction to the fall, which was formed last week. If there is no consolidation above the level of 0.6906, the bearish momentum will continue.

An alternative pattern of growth and absorption of last week's fall will develop if today's trading closes above the level of 0.6906. This will make it possible to change the direction of the medium-term trade and to keep part of yesterday's purchases up to the June high.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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GBP/USD near resistance, a drop is possible!

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GBPUSD is near resistance, a drop to 1st support is possible

Entry: 1.2564

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

Stop Loss : 1.2660

Why it's good :horizontal pullback resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 1.2462

Why it's good: 100% Fibonacci extension

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AUD/USD approaching resistance, potential reversal!

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Price is approaching its resistance where it could potentially reverse back down to its support at 0.6861.

Entry : 0.6902

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance

Stop Loss : 0.6929

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.6861

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support

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USD/JPY approaching resistance, potential reversal!

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Price is approaching its resistance where it could potentially reverse back down to its support at 0.6861.

Entry : 109.012

Why it's good : 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance

Stop Loss : 109.944

Why it's good : 76.4% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 108.147

Why it's good : 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support, 100% Fibonacci extension

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on June 19

Forecast for June 19:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1268, 1.1246, 1.1231, 1.1194, 1.1181, 1.1153 and 1.1131. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of June 12. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the passage by the price of the noise range 1.1194 - 1.1181. Here, the goal is 1.1153. We consider the level of 1.1131 to be a potential value for the bottom. After reaching which, we expect a consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1231 - 1.1246. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the goal is 1.1268, and up to this level, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1231 Take profit: 1.1244

Buy 1.1247 Take profit: 1.1266

Sell: 1.1180 Take profit: 1.1155

Sell: 1.1150 Take profit: 1.1132

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2626, 1.2605, 1.2568, 1.2538, 1.2497, 1.2471 and 1.2420. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of June 7. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range of 1.2497 - 1.2471. The breakdown of the last value will allow us to expect movement towards the potential target - 1.2420. After reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.2538 - 1.2568. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2605. The range of 1.2605 - 1.2626 is a key support for the downward structure. Before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 7, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 1.2570 Take profit: 1.2605

Sell: 1.2497 Take profit: 1.2473

Sell: 1.2469 Take profit: 1.2423

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0098, 1.0059, 1.0044, 1.0015, 0.9970, 0.9954 and 0.9934. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure of June 7. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.0015. Here, the target is 1.0044. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.0044 - 1.0059. We consider the level of 1.0098 to be a potential value for the top. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9970 - 0.9954. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9934. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 1.0017 Take profit: 1.0044

Buy : 1.0060 Take profit: 1.0098

Sell: 0.9970 Take profit: 0.9955

Sell: 0.9952 Take profit: 0.9936

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.58, 109.37, 109.01, 108.70, 108.08, 107.76 and 107.35. Here, the situation is in equilibrium. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 108.70 - 109.01. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 109.37. Price consolidation is in the range of 109.37 - 109.58.

The level of 108.08 is a key support for the upward structure. Its price passage will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the first goal is 107.76. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 107.35.

The main trend: the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.70 Take profit: 109.00

Buy : 109.03 Take profit: 109.37

Sell: 108.08 Take profit: 107.76

Sell: 107.74 Take profit: 107.37

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3564, 1.3515, 1.3492, 1.3451, 1.3424, 1.3385, 1.3364 and 1.3334. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure from June 7. At the moment, the price is in correction. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.3424 - 1.3451. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3492. Short-term upward movement is in the range 1.3492 - 1.3515, as well as consolidation. We consider the level of 1.3564 as a potential value for the top, to which we expect movement, after the breakdown of the level of 1.3517.

Consolidated movement is possible in the range of 1.3385 - 1.3364. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3334. This level is a key support for the top. Its price passage will have to develop a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.3294.

The main trend is the upward cycle of June 7, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3424 Take profit: 1.3450

Buy : 1.3453 Take profit: 1.3490

Sell: 1.3363 Take profit: 1.3335

Sell: 1.3332 Take profit: 1.3296

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For the pair Australian dollar / US dollar key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6919, 0.6900, 0.6885, 0.6849, 0.6830, 0.6808 and 0.6784. Here, the price forms the potential for the top of June 18th. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.6885 - 0.6900. The breakdown of the last value will begin the development of the ascending structure on the scale of H1. In this case, the potential target is 0.6919.

The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6830. In this case, the goal is 0.6808, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6784. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 7, the formation of potential for the top of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6885 Take profit: 0.6900

Buy: 0.6902 Take profit: 0.6919

Sell : 0.6849 Take profit : 0.6832

Sell: 0.6829 Take profit: 0.6808

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.39, 122.09, 121.91, 121.39, 121.14, 120.75 and 120.54. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of June 11. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 121.39. In this case, the target is 121.14, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 121.14 must be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 120.75. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 120.54. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a departure to the correction.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 121.91 - 122.09. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 122.39. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the development of the downward structure of June 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.91 Take profit: 122.09

Buy: 122.11 Take profit: 122.37

Sell: 121.39 Take profit: 121.18

Sell: 121.12 Take profit: 120.77

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 136.64, 136.18, 135.74, 135.47, 135.23 and 134.71. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure from June 12. At the moment, the price is in the stage of deep correction and we expect the initial conditions for the top to reach the level of 136.64. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 135.74. In this case, the first target is 135.47. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 135.47 - 135.23. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 135.47. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 135.20.

The main trend is the downward structure of June 12, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 136.20 Take profit: 136.64

Sell: 135.74 Take profit: 135.47

Sell: 135.47 Take profit: 135.23

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD h4 vs USD / JPY h4 vs EUR / JPY. Comprehensive analysis of traffic options from June 19, 2019. Analysis of APLs

Let me bring to your attention a comprehensive analysis of options for the development of the movement of currency instruments EUR / USD vs USD / JPY vs EUR / JPY on a Minuette operational scale (H4 time frame) from June 19, 2019.

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Euro vs US Dollar

The movement of the single European currency EUR / USD continues to remain within the boundaries (1.1236 <-> 1.1205 <-> 1.1175) of the Minuette operating scale. Respectively, the further movement of the single European currency from June 19, 2019 will be due to the direction of the breakdown of the above levels. More details of the development of the boundaries of this zone of equilibrium are shown in the graph.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1236 (upper boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork) -> the development of the EUR / USD movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (1.1230 <-> 1.1260 <-> 1.1285) of the Minuette operational scale with the prospect of reaching the ultimate Schiff Line Minuette (1.1310). The breakdown of the support level 1.1175 (lower boundary of ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork) -> continuation of the downward movement of the single European currency to the targets -> FSL target line (1.1150) of the Minuette operational scale fork <-> minimums (1.1116 <-> 1.1107).

Marking options for the movement of EUR / USD are shown in the graph.

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US Dollar vs Japanese Yen

For the movement of USD / JPY from June 19, 2019, it will depend on the direction of the breakdown of the range:

-> resistance level of 108.85 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operating scale fork);

-> support level of 108.45 (the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operating scale fork).

The return of the USD/JPY below the support level of 108.45 -> the development of the movement inside 1/2 Median Line channel (108.45 <-> 108.20 <-> 107.90) of the Minuette operating scale fork, and when the minimum is updated to 107.84, the downward movement of this currency instrument can be continued to the control lines -> LTL Minute (107.45) <-> LTL Minuette (107.00).

The breakdown of the resistance level of 108.85 -> variant of the development of the USD / JPY movement within the 1/2 of the Median Line channel (108.85 <-> 109.25 <-> 109.65) of the Minuette operational scale and equilibrium zones (109.20 <-> 109.55 <-> 109.95) of the Minuette operating scale fork.

Markup options for the movement of USD / JPY can be seen in the chart ->

analytics5d0922d2901dc.jpg

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Euro vs Japanese Yen

The development of the movement of the cross-instrument EUR / JPY from June 19, 2019 will also be determined by the direction of the range breakdown:

-> resistance level of 121.30 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel is at the Minuette operating scale forks);

-> support level of 121.10 (the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 balance zone of the Minuette operational scale forks).

The breakdown of the resistance level 121.30 -> development of the movement of EUR / JPY within the borders of the 1/2 Median Line channel for operational scales forks -> Minuette (121.30 <-> 121.65 <-> 121.90) and Minuette (121.55 <-> 122.05 <-> 122.50) with the prospect of reaching the UTL Minuette control line (122.90) and the lower limit of ISL38.2 (123.15) for the Minuette operational scale fork.

On the other hand, the breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (support level of 121.10) -> development of the cross-instrument movement will continue inside the equilibrium zone (121.10 <-> 120.65 <-> 120.20) Minuette operating scale fork with the prospect of reaching the control line LTL Minuette (120.00).

Marking options for the movement of the cross-tool EUR / JPY is presented in the animated graphics ->

analytics5d0922f4a4f8c.jpg

The review was compiled without taking into account of the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD is waiting for forecasts from the Fed and valerian from Powell

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On Wednesday, traders will focus on the Committee members' projections on where the Federal funds rate will be. In December last year, financial officials predicted two rounds of monetary tightening; in March – none. Now the forward market estimates the probability of a rate reduction in 2019 at 89%. If the US regulator does not change its forecast, the yield on Treasuries will soar, stock indexes will collapse, and the dollar will strengthen its position. The head of the Fed will need to apply inhuman efforts to get everything back in place.

Market participants do not expect the regulator to start easing the policy tomorrow, but sincerely believe that Powell will provide them with signals. One of the conditions under which the rate can be reduced is the further expansion of the trade conflict between the United States and China. The next passions can be expected if the parties fail to meet and agree on a summit in Osaka, Japan at the end of June.

Trading peripetias are a powerful "bearish" driver for global stock markets. At the same time, rumors that the US central bank intends to react to them by lowering the rate are supported by the bulls on the S&P 500.

There is a whole gulf between the two largest economies in the world. Washington threatens with duties on all Chinese imports, and Beijing responds with a decline in US government notes to a 2-year low of $1.11 trillion. The value of the index decreases for eight months, which gives rise to rumors about China's plans to raise the yield of Treasury bonds and complicate life for the United States in the service sector. However, this can turn into a serious pain for China itself, moreover, it was revealed that China bought US debt through someone else's hands. Belgium came to the rescue of the Chinese.

Perhaps Donald Trump, who regularly criticized the Fed, wants Jerome Powell to help him in the event of a failure at the G20 summit. Will the Fed chairman do that? Powell constantly emphasized the non-political nature of the regulator and does not pay attention to the critical arrows of the White House owner.

As for the other world central banks, they will certainly begin to adjust their monetary policy depending on the actions of their US colleagues. So, on Monday, a member of the Governing Council, Benoit Coeure, and the head of the Bank of Spain, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, joined the choir of ECB representatives who openly talk about monetary policy easing if necessary. Today this so-called choir was headed by Mario Draghi himself. He managed to arrange a surprise, because no one expected such a turn of events before the outcome of the Fed meeting.

The head of the ECB at the annual symposium in Portugal openly announced a reduction in the already unprecedented low interest rates if inflation does not reach the target. The euro slumped in minutes, then reduced losses. Former ECB chief economist Peter Praet noted that the picture of wages and inflation in the euro area is improving. The fact that the regulator is considering the possibility of lowering the rates is seen as an alarming signal for experts.

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It was a rehearsal run of EUR/USD. On Wednesday, if the Fed management adjusts its forecasts taking into account the views of the derivatives market, and Powell hints at a softening of the policy, the main pair could rise. The reluctance of FOMC members to change forecasts, on the contrary, will give rise to a "bearish" attack.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. June 18th. Results of the day. Pound sterling does not need news to continue falling

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 62p - 77p - 46p - 102p - 76p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 73p (75p).

If the EUR/USD currency pair resumed its fall today against the background of the "dovish" speech of ECB head Mario Draghi, then the pound/dollar pair continued to fall without any fundamental information. Today, the main candidate for the post of the prime minister of Great Britain, Boris Johnson, once again declared that no signal should be given to the European Union that Brexit could be postponed to a date later than October 31. Recall that the EU leaders have repeatedly expressed their support for the new Brexit postponement until mid-2020, which Johnson categorically does not accept. The former foreign minister believes that Britain should show the EU resilience and readiness to withdraw without a "deal". This, according to Johnson, will help to achieve a deal, which will be beneficial to the UK. In the meantime, a little more than 4 months remains until October 31. The election of the leader of the Conservative Party and the prime minister will last at least another month. Accordingly, the new prime minister will have a "whole" three months to hold new negotiations with Brussels, which has not yet confirmed their readiness for these negotiations. We believe that such a period is very little to change something in the agreement between London and Brussels. We also believe that the Parliament will block the exit without a "deal". Accordingly, we are compelled to state the fact that Brexit didn't come close to its junction. Politicians who are fighting for the prime minister's seat can make any loud statements to get as many votes as possible, but this changes nothing in essence for Brexit, which has been prolonged for three years. The same Boris Johnson could share information about exactly how he is going to conduct negotiations with the EU and why should the EU cede? However, Johnson, like other candidates for the post, remains silent on this issue. Today, the pound sterling worked at the support level of 1.2525 and may begin an upward round of correction, but it is unlikely to go far up.

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar currency pair may start to adjust. The next goal for the short – 1,2525 and 1,2468, we recommend you to retrace them after a turn of the corrective movement is completed.

Theoretically, it will be possible to buy the British currency when the pair has consolidated above the Kijun-sen line. However, the position of the bulls, even in this case, will be extremely weak, and any longs are extremely risky.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com