Control zones for USD/CAD on 11/28/19

The upward movement remains a medium-term impulse. Therefore, holding purchases opened earlier is the main strategy. The first goal of growth is the November maximum, which was formed after the test of the important resistance zone of the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.3328-1.3319. It should be noted the presence of another significant level is found slightly above the November extreme.

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The defining support is Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.3238-1.3229. While the pair is trading above this zone, the probability of the continuation of the bullish momentum is 70%.

An alternative model would be to reduce to Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.3238-1.3229 to obtain more favorable prices for the purchase of the instrument. This model should be considered as medium-term, as WCZ 1/2 is outside the average daily movement.

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Daily CZ- daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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The US economy continues to grow, the euro is neutral with a bearish margin, the pound can update the maximum based on survey

US GDP grew by 2.1% in the 3rd quarter. The first preliminary estimate is revised upwards. Meanwhile, the growth is higher than in the 2nd quarter, which was a surprise for the markets, however, the growth rate of consumer spending slowed down to 2.5% against 4.6% in the 2nd quarter.

The report leaves a mixed impression. Despite stronger-than-forecast GDP growth, there are clear signs of a slowdown in the main driving force of the US economy - consumer spending, which in turn supports inflation and ultimately determines the monetary policy of the Fed.

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At the same time, it is no coincidence that the yield on 5-year TIPS bonds, which reflects real business inflation forecasts, continues to be in the area of November lows and didn't react at all to GDP and PCE data. The United States, in turn, reflects the dynamics of global demand with a big lead, and if consumer spending in the United States begins to slow down, then such a signal will inevitably be perceived as negative in the rest of the world.

Mizuho Bank, analyzing the positions of the leaders of the world's largest central banks, concludes that they are forced to follow the Bank of Japan in the war of attrition, having the only tool in their luggage - ultra-low interest rates. The Fed, in many ways, is preparing to implement a plan to limit the yield curve, similar to the one that has been guided by the Bank of Japan for more than 5 years. This means continued growth in the Fed's balance sheet, an aggressive purchase of public debt and a constant infusion of new liquidity, which creates the illusion of stock market growth.

However, optimism in the markets is unstable and is based on two pillars - the resumption of growth in the Fed's balance sheet and expectations for the successful completion of trade negotiations between the US and China, which can give impulse to all world trade. A significant blow was dealt to the second point yesterday - Trump signed two bills on Hong Kong, which the Chinese side can only regard as an attempt to intervene in the country's internal affairs. The chances of successful negotiations are reduced, and at the same time, the demand for risk will also go down. This morning, the Nikkei and the Shanghai Composite are trading in the red zone. There is an increase in demand for bonds, the probability of a negative opening for Europe is high, and the Japanese yen and gold may begin to increase.

EUR/USD

On Thursday, a report on consumer inflation in Germany in November and a number of structural indices from the European Commission, reflecting the state of the business climate in the eurozone is of importance. Minimum growth is expected relative to October and the release of data in line with expectations is unlikely to support the euro.

Moreover, the euro cannot get out of the range, volatility is low, repeated testing of support 1.0988 is technically possible, but players see no fundamental reasons for the decline. Resistance is 1.1060 / 80, which is also unlikely to be broken through.

GBP/USD

Politics controls the British pound, taking advantage of the complete lack of significant macroeconomic news. The chances of conservatives gaining more than 326 seats in parliament and forming the necessary majority are growing steadily. Thus, this reduces uncertainty.

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Johnson repeatedly said that he would not extend the transition period, which should end by December 31, 2020, which increases the risk of a no-deal Brexit.

In turn, the pound is holding around a 6-month high; the chances of a continued growth look strong. On the other hand, demand is supported by the assumption that the Tory victory in the elections will increase demand for the pound due to a change in the direction of the cash flow.

Technically, the pound is neutral with a small bullish margin, support is 1.2820 / 30, and resistance zone is 1.2980 / 3010. Today, it can be tested according to the results of the publication of the YouGov MRP poll, which predicts 359 seats for conservatives on Thursday morning, which is more than enough for a complete victory.

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Control zones for NZD/USD on 11/28/19

The flat lasted for two weeks, which allows you to work from its borders. The main target of growth remains the weekly control zone 0.6450-0.6438. Thus, reaching this zone will complete the main cycle of the upward movement. The emergence of proposals during the test of the specified zone will make it possible to enter a short position. At the same time, the formation of the pattern of "false breakdown" of the maximum of the last week is required.

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Working within the framework of the flat implies fixing profit at its borders and entering the trade when forming the pattern of "false breakdown" or "absorption".

An alternative model will be developed if the closure of trading at the next US sessions occurs above the level of 0.6450. This will continue to work towards strengthening the New Zealand dollar. It is important to understand that there is a zone of a large accumulation of limit sell orders above the weekly maximum. The probability of its breakdown with consolidation does not exceed 50%.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ- weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Trading plan 11/28/2019 EURUSD

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A large package of data on the US economy has been released.

On the one hand, GDP data (+2.1%) and durable goods orders (+0.6%) are strong, and the dollar made an attempt to grow. The US stock market showed another day of growth and new highs.

On the other hand, inflation remains low (+0.1%) - this does not give the Federal Reserve any reason to tighten its policy - and the dollar stopped growth.

From other news - recent polls have shown that in Britain, Conservatives can count on a strong majority in Parliament - the pound has turned up, and this also affects the euro.

EURUSD:

We are ready to sell from 1.0985

We are ready to buy from 1.1035

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Trading plan for EURUSD for November 28, 2019

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Technical outlook:

EURUSD is testing lows at 1.0989 after bouncing back by 3 pips. Looking ahead, the pair may fall below 1.1027 or edge higher to 1.0992/93. Now the pair is at 1.0992/93 and bulls are back in control or the recent short term rally is just a correction. EURUSD may continue to slide down towards 1.0940 before reversing higher again. Also note that the existing bullish structure would remain intact as long as EURUSD bulls manage to keep prices above 1.0879 levels which is marked as a meaningful bottom. A break above 1.1027/30 will confirm that the corrective drop from 1.1097 levels has a bottom in place at 1.0992/9 and that the pair is likely to reach new highs above 1.1180 levels. It is a safe strategy to hold long positions for now and also buy more if prices manage to reach 1.0940 levels.

Trading plan:

Remain long against 1.0879, target is above 1.15

Good luck!

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 28. The pound found strength and resumed growth amid new polls

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The British pound began to actively strengthen its position against the US dollar following news that the Conservative Party of Great Britain could win the election on December 12 this year by a good margin. Buyers managed to break above a number of resistances and at the moment, the main task is to maintain support at 1.2921, which is currently being traded. The formation of a false breakout at this level in the first half of the day will lead to further growth of GBP/USD to the highs of 1.2966 and 1.3017, where I recommend profit taking. Given that important data for the UK are not coming out today, the focus will continue on election news. In the event that the pair falls below the 1.2921 support, it is best to return to long positions to rebound from the 1.2888 area, or immediately buy the pound after a test of a low of 1.2845.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Sellers have serious problems, as the hope of a continued downward correction has evaporated along with yesterday's growth of the pound. At the moment, an important task will be the return and consolidation under the support of 1.2921, which may push the pound lower to the area of 1.2888, where I recommend profit taking, as in this range the bulls will try to build the lower boundary of the new rising channel. If the demand for GBP/USD persists in the morning, then it is best to count on sales only after a false breakout has formed in the support area of 1.2966, and you can open short positions immediately for a rebound from a high of 1.3017.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates a reversal of the downward trend.

Bollinger bands

If the pound decreases, support will be provided by the lower boundary at 1.2860. A break of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2950 will lead to a more powerful wave of growth for the pair.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 28 - 2019

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GBP/JPY did not need a deeper correction before breaking above the resistance at 140.90 confirming the next impulsive leg higher towards 143.19 and 144.58. GBP/JPY is currently testing resistance at the former peaks at 141.58. It should just be a matter of time before this resistance is broken. The pair is likely to rise to 143.19.

Support is now seen at 141.36 and again at 140.90.

R3: 142.57

R2: 142.14

R1: 141.74

Pivot: 141.58

S1: 141.36

S2: 140.90

S3: 140.61

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 140.12 and we will raise our stop to 139.85.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 28. US economic growth report helped the dollar strengthen against the

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Good data on US GDP growth for the third quarter of this year led to a breakout of the lows of the week and the strengthening of the dollar against the euro. However, despite the fact that the report turned out to be better than economists' forecasts, this did not lead to a more powerful fall in EUR/USD. Now, buyers of the euro are concentrated on the resistance of 1.1013, since only a return to this level will make it possible for us to talk about a more powerful upward impulse to the area of a high 1.1034, where I recommend profit taking. In case the euro declines by the trend in the morning, due to the absence of a number of important fundamental statistics, it is possible to consider purchases only after a false breakout is formed in the support area of 1.0993, or buy the euro immediately for a rebound from a low of 1.0972.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers are struggling to maintain a downward momentum in the pair, but many market participants are waiting for the US and China to sign the first phase of a trade agreement, which will limit demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. Only the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1013 will be a signal to open short positions in the pair. However, a more important task is to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.0993, which will lead to updating lows in the areas of 1.0972 and 1.0943, where I recommend profit taking. If the bears miss the resistance of 1.1013, then it is best to count on new sales after an upward correction from the resistance of 1.1034, or sell immediately on the rebound from the high of 1.1059.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates a lack of strength among sellers to continue the downward trend.

Bollinger bands

Only a breakthrough of the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.0995 will provide sellers with the necessary impetus, which will lead to another wave of decline in the euro.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 28 - 2019

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Short-term important resistance at 120.30 has been cleared. Blue wave iii towards 121.98 now is developing. The next minor hurdle is seen at 120.68. It should be a matter of time before this resistance is broken as well and the pair will move higher towards 121.40 and 121.98.

The support level is now seen at 120.23 and 120.05.

R3: 121.98

R2: 121.40

R1: 121.13

Pivot: 120.68

S1: 120.23

S2: 120.05

S3: 119.80

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 and we will raise our stop to 119.55.

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EUR/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

Price is approaching our first support at 1.09994 where we are expecting a bounce to our first resistance level at 1.10944

Entry: 1.09994

78.6% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support

Take Profit : 1.10944

Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance, 100% fibonacci extension, 50% fibonacci retracement

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Bounce in progress on USD/CAD

USDCAD showing a bounce above support at 1.32680 for a push up towards resistance 1.33278

Entry: 1.32680

50% Fibonacci Retracement

Take Profit : 1.33278

Why it's good : Horizontal Swing High

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USD/JPY to drop from 1st resistance, potential drop!

Entry: 109.52

Why it's good: Horizontal swing high resistance

78.6% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 107.898

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension

Horizontal swing low support

50% Fibonacci retracement

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, November 28,2019

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When the European market opens, sucheconomic data as Italian 10-y Bond Auction, Private Loans y/y, M3 Money Supply y/y, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, and German Prelim CPI m/m will be published. The US today will not release any economicreports.So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1062. Strong Resistance: 1.1056. Original Resistance: 1.1045. Inner Sell Area: 1.1034.Target Inner Area: 1.1008. Inner Buy Area: 1.0982. Original Support: 1.0971. Strong Support: 1.0960. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0954. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday Level for USD/JPY, November 28,2019

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Japan will release the Retail Sales y/y report. The US will not release any economic data. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance.3:110.03. Resistance. 2:109.83. Resistance. 1:109.62. Support. 1:109.31. Support. 2:109.10. Support. 3:108.90. (Disclaimer)

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 28, 2019

EUR/USD

On Wednesday, US statistics continued to delight investors and markets swayed towards the dollar. The euro lost 22 points. GDP for the third quarter amounted to 2.1% against the expectation of 1.9%, the volume of orders for durable goods increased by 0.6% in October against the forecast of -0.5%, personal expenses of consumers increased by 0.3 % in October. It is a public holiday today in the United States,

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On the daily chart, the price went below the MACD indicator line. If today closes with a black candle, then the price will consolidate below it with the prospect of a medium-term decline. The immediate goal of this movement at 1.0925 is the lowest level of September 3 and 12. In the four-week period, the price of 1.0720/30 can be reached - the lower line of the blue price channel (visible on a very tight chart). The Marlin oscillator lies in the horizon in the negative trend zone, volatility is likely to be low in the thin market today.

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On a four-hour chart, the price has consolidated under the blue line of MACD. The range between the levels of 1.0985-1.1026 is likely to be today (perhaps even tomorrow) a consolidation zone.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on November 28, 2019

GBP/USD

The British pound grew by 56 points yesterday and continues to slightly grow today in the Asian session at new polls in the UK about the preferences of the electorate. The Conservative Party received 43%, while was at Labor 32%. Johnson's party can form a majority government.

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On the daily chart, the price pushed up from the red indicator line of balance. The price can reach the enclosed line of the falling green price channel in the region of 1.3158, but only if it can resolve several important nuances.

The first of them is the exit of the Marlin oscillator signal line into the zone of positive numbers; it can happen if the price approaches close to the Fibonacci line of 0.0%. The second one is on a four-hour chart, the price is waiting for the resistance zone from the Fibonacci levels of 100.0% and 110.0% 1.2975-1.2995.

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On this chart (H4), the price has consolidated above the line of balance, the balance is shifted upward, the Marlin oscillator is growing, we are waiting for continued growth in the resistance range 1.2975-1.2995. If the price turns down from it, then this will be a rare case of the fourth peak on the daily chart, which was mentioned in the previous review. The scenario with local growth has now become the main one.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on November 28, 2019

AUD/USD

The situation is developing in its own way for the Australian dollar - the price is falling to the target support of the price channel line, to the area of 0.6739. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator lies in the horizon, but this may not interfere with the price to work out this line, and only correct upwards from it. Investors believe that the RBA can lower the rate twice until the middle of next year, and it can also launch the traditional (in the terminology of current realities) QE, that is, the repurchase of assets on the balance sheet of the central bank.

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On a four-hour chart, the price is falling along the blue line of MACD and here, the Marlin is moving down from the boundary with the growth territory.

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#USDX vs EUR/USD vs GBP/USD vs USD/JPY - H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from November 28, 2019 APLs &

What will happen to the "majors" on the eve of the first month of winter? Here's a comprehensive analysis of H4 movement options - #USDX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY from November 28, 2019 of the Minuette operational scale forks.

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Once again, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX from November 28, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 98.38 (control line UTL of the Minuette operational scale forks);
  • support level of 98.25 (start line SSL of the Minuette operational scale forks).

The breakdown of the resistance level of 98.38 on the control line UTL of the Minuette operational scale forks and the update of the local maximum 98.45 will determine the continuation of the development of the upward movement #USDX to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (98.63 - 99.00 - 99.35) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the contrary, the breakdown of the SSL Minuette start line (support level of 98.25) will direct the downward movement of the dollar index to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line (98.05 - 97.78 - 97.53) of the Minuette operational scale forks and equilibrium zones (97.78 - 97.65 - 97.53) of the Minuette operational scale.

The details of the #USDX movement are presented on the animated chart.

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Euro vs US dollar

The development of the single European currency EUR / USD movement from November 28, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1025 - 1.1010 - 1.0989) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details of the processing of the indicated levels are presented on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the support level of 1.0989 on the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel will make it relevant to continue the movement of the single European currency in the equilibrium zones (1.0989 - 1.0970 - 1.0950) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the final Schiff Line Minuette (1.0940), the final line FSL Minuette (1.0885) and a local minimum of 1.0879 .

Alternatively, the breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.1025) is a variant of the development of the upward movement of EUR / USD to the targets: the initial SSL line (1.1050) of the Minuette operational scale forks - local maximum 1.1075 - a Median Line channel (1.1120 - 1.1150 - 1.1180) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of the EUR / USD movement options are shown on the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

Starting November 28, 2019, the development of Her Majesty's currency movement GBP / USD will be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 1.2910 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks);
  • support level of 1.2875 (start line SSL of the Minuette operational scale forks).

The breakdown of the support level of 1.2875 on the initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale forks will make it possible to continue the downward movement of Her Majesty's currency to the goals: control line FSL Minuette (1.2840) - minimums (1.2824 - 1.2769) - equilibrium zones (1.2740 - 1.2650 - 1.2550) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

However, in the event of a breakdown of the resistance level of 1.2910, the development of the GBP / USD movement will begin to occur within the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2910 - 1.2932 - 1.2955) and the equilibrium zone (1.2970 - 1.3000 - 1.3030) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the SSL start line (1.3050) of the Minuette operational scale forks and final line FSL Minuette (1.3125).

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen on the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

Starting November 28, 2019, the development of the USD / JPY currency movement of the "land of the rising sun" will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (109.10 - 109.30 - 109.50) of the Minuette operational scale forks. Look at the animation chart for the movement details.

If the upper boundary of 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks (109.50) is broken, the upward movement of USD / JPY can continue to the resistance levels :

- 109.85 - warning line UWL38.2 of the forks of the operational scale Minute;

- 109.90 - control line UTL Minute;

- 110.05 - the final Shiff Line Minuette.

When the currency of the "country of the rising sun" returns below the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (109.10), the downward movement of this currency instrument to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (109.00 - 108.75 - 108.50) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of updating the local minimum 108.25.

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement on the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on November 28

Forecast for November 27:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1045, 1.1024, 1.1010, 1.0983, 1.0953 and 1.0931. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the downward structure of November 21. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.0983. In this case, the target is 1.0953. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.0931. Upon reaching this value, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.1010 - 1.1024. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1045. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 21

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1010 Take profit: 1.1022

Buy: 1.1025 Take profit: 1.1045

Sell: 1.0983 Take profit: 1.0955

Sell: 1.0951 Take profit: 1.0931

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3075, 1.3043, 1.2994, 1.2957, 1.2903, 1.2873, 1.2842 and 1.2817. Here, we are following the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of November 27. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2957. In this case, the target is 1.2994. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.2995 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3043. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3075. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2903 - 1.2873. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2842. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of November 27

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2957 Take profit: 1.2992

Buy: 1.2996 Take profit: 1.3043

Sell: 1.2903 Take profit: 1.2875

Sell: 1.2870 Take profit: 1.2844

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0039, 1.0023, 1.0000, 0.9988, 0.9956, 0.9938 and 0.9919. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of November 18. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 0.9988 - 1.0000. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.0023. We consider the level of 1.0039 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9956 - 0.9938. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9919.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 18

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9988 Take profit: 1.0000

Buy : 1.0003 Take profit: 1.0023

Sell: 0.9956 Take profit: 0.9940

Sell: 0.9937 Take profit: 0.9920

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.17, 109.89, 109.75, 109.54, 109.27, 109.11 and 108.89. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of November 21. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 109.54. In this case, the target is 109.75. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 109.75 - 109.89. We consider the level 110.17 to be the potential value for the top; we expect movement to this value after the breakdown of the level of 109.90.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 109.27 - 109.11. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 108.89. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend: the development of the ascending structure of November 21

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.55 Take profit: 109.75

Buy : 109.77 Take profit: 109.88

Sell: 109.25 Take profit: 109.13

Sell: 109.08 Take profit: 108.92

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3404, 1.3387, 1.3355, 1.3334, 1.3311, 1.3298, 1.3278 and 1.3250. Here, we are following the ascending structure of November 19. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3311. In this case, the first target 1.3334. We expect short-term upward movement in the range of 1.3334 - 1.3355. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3387. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3387 - 1.3404 and from here, we expect a correction.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation are possible in the range of 1.3298 - 1.3278. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3250. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 19, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3311 Take profit: 1.3333

Buy : 1.3335 Take profit: 1.3355

Sell: 1.3276 Take profit: 1.3252

Sell: 1.3248 Take profit: 1.3220

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6833, 0.6814, 0.6799, 0.6787, 0.6767, 0.6748, 0.6735 and 0.6717. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of November 19. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6765. In this case, we expect a pronounced movement to the level of 0.6748. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6748 - 0.6735. We consider the level of 0.6717 to be a potential value for the bottom; upon reaching this value, we expect a correction.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.6787 - 0.6799. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6814. This level is a key support for the downward trend.

The main trend is a local descending structure of November 19

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6787 Take profit: 0.6797

Buy: 0.6800 Take profit: 0.6814

Sell : 0.6766 Take profit : 0.6750

Sell: 0.6746 Take profit: 0.6736

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.55, 121.29, 120.94, 120.62, 120.21, 119.99 and 119.64. Here, we determined the subsequent goals from the local ascending structure of November 22. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 120.62. In this case, the target is 120.94. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 120.95 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 121.29. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 121.55. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 120.21 - 119.99. The breakdown of the latter value will have the potential to form a downward movement. Here, the potential target is 119.64.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of November 22

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 120.62 Take profit: 120.92

Buy: 120.96 Take profit: 121.27

Sell: 120.21 Take profit: 120.00

Sell: 119.96 Take profit: 119.66

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 143.45, 143.09, 142.50. 142.06, 141.15, 140.72 and 140.24. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of November 22. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 142.06 - 142.50. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 143.09. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 143.45. Upon reaching this level, we expect a departure in the correction.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 141.15 - 140.72. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 140.24. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 142.06 Take profit: 142.50

Buy: 142.52 Take profit: 143.07

Sell: 141.15 Take profit: 140.74

Sell: 140.70 Take profit: 140.26

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USD/JPY and its crosses - current situation

USD / JPY

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Earlier, the yen has developed a 100% target for the breakdown of the daily cloud, which was strengthened by the accumulation of very strong and significant levels from different time intervals 109.51 - 109.82 (weekly cloud + monthly medium-term trend + lower border of the monthly cloud). Breaking through the encountered zone of resistance can open up great upward prospects, and thus, players on the upside should not abandon their hopes and desires. The closing of November is approaching, if the bulls manage to maintain and fix their optimism on the monthly candle in November, then attempts to fight for these resistance in December will most likely continue. Now, 108.70-75 (daily cross) and 108.44-38 (monthly Tenkan + Fibo Kijun) should be noted as the supports. Consolidation below will indicate the formation of rebound from the resistance encountered, led by a monthly medium-term trend (109.59), which may lead to a longer change in moods and priorities of the movement. In this case, a downward cloud and a downward correction to the weekly gold cross support (Tenkan 108.00 + Kijun 106.98) will appear in the players' field of interest.

EUR/JPY

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The development of the situation with the priority of bullish moods was postponed by the meeting with the zone of influence of the monthly short-term trend (121.65). As a result, all of November, relying on the support of the daily and weekly Ichimoku crosses, the pair is trying to maintain the status quo and hold on to the prevalence of bullish sentiments and priorities. In this case, 121.65 (monthly Tenkan), 122.58 - 123.33 (target for the breakdown of the daily cloud) and 123.71 - 124.10 (lower boundaries of the monthly and weekly clouds) remain the upward reference points. The supports now form a wide area, including the daily cloud and the weekly dead cross Ishimoku (119.58 - 118.65). Consolidation below will serve as a good start for the formation of rebound from the monthly short-term trend (121.65), and the successful implementation of rebound, through the exit from the correction zone (115.84), will help to restore the monthly downward trend.

GBP/JPY

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The October activity of the players on the upside supported the pair to break through many significant levels and reach the most important resistance of this area 140.34 - 141.54 (weekly cloud + monthly medium-term trend). The strength and significance of the resistance holds back the development of the current situation throughout November. Thus, the breakdown of the zone and reliable consolidating above promises players to increase good prospects. In this case, the closest reference points will be an increase to the final boundary of the monthly dead cross Ichimoku (145.10) and the formation of an ascending target for the breakdown of the weekly cloud. However, the failure of the bulls and the weakening of their positions can return to the market bearish sentiment very quickly. At first, the players on the downside will seek to take advantage of the monthly short-term thread (138.00), and then they may even be confused by the change in the current situation, for which they implement a downward correction to the support of the weekly cross, now it is 135,80 – 134,03 – 132,28, which will allow them to form a full retreat from the resistances encountered, with good future prospects.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)

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Pound is not so simple: the current recession will be followed by growth

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The British currency's confident rise marked at the beginning of the week was interrupted by not too positive political news. The pound, nervously reacting to opinion polls in the UK, lost ground. However, experts are counting on its restoration in the near future.

According to current polls, the chances of the Conservative party winning the upcoming elections could turn out to be low. The survey results were as follows: Conservatives gained 43% of the vote, and Labour - 32%. The current situation undermines the leading position of the national currency. The pound was weak on Tuesday, November 26. It began to plummet, barely reaching 1.2900. The British currency was trading in the range of 1.2870-1.2871 yesterday.

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Subsequently, the GBP/USD pair fell even lower, reaching 1.2853–1.2854. Experts have recorded a downward trend in the pair.

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Many analysts are confident that even after the general election in the UK, scheduled for December 12, the pound will remain in the range from 1.2800 to 1.3000. A similar scenario is possible if the so-called "suspended" (that is, temporary) Parliament is elected until clarity appears on the country's political horizon. At the same time, a number of economists believe that even if the Conservative Party and Prime Minister Boris Johnson win the election, the problems associated with Brexit will not be solved by themselves. Great Britain has to go through a winding path to conclude new trade agreements both with the European Union, the United States and other countries in order to bring trade to normal.

Such shocks negatively affect the British currency. At the moment, the pound is stuck in the low price range. The GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.2846–1.2847 on Wednesday, November 27. Experts believe that before the general election, the pair is unlikely to go beyond the current price range, limited to 1.2800-1.2900.

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The British currency is currently experiencing serious volatility. Political fluctuations are not in vain for the pound, analysts emphasize. However, they are confident that in the medium term, sterling will perk up and conquer price peaks again, rushing to the cherished goal of 1.3000.

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Euro goes on thin ice

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The European currency balances between the strengthening of the US dollar and the economic problems that occasionally shake the eurozone. The current difficulties are being tested by the euro, as it periodically slumps, also seeks to maintain its position, although sometimes it requires tremendous effort.

The current instability of the European economy negatively affects the dynamics of the euro. At the moment, the EUR/USD pair is in stagnation, and analysts are at a loss with further forecasts. Experts believe that the inaction of the Federal Reserve and the ECB contributes to the low volatility of the pair, driving the pair into narrow trading ranges. In this state, the EUR/USD pair may be stuck for a long time, experts said.

Zero rates can provide a bearish service to the European currency if the ECB agrees to introduce them in the near future. This will play into the hands of the Fed, which decided to keep low but stable rates in the long run. If the European regulator introduces negative rates in the near future, this will cause a serious blow to the euro. Such a discrepancy in the monetary policy of leading central banks will greatly weaken the euro and strengthen the position of the greenback.

According to analysts, a downward trend is currently prevailing in the EUR/USD pair. The euro began to fall on Tuesday, November 26, but did not go to the bottom. Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair fell to the level of 1,1012, and today this trend continued.

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The pair was trading in an extremely low range of 1,1007–1,008 on Wednesday morning, November 27. Experts fear that the EUR/USD pair will reach the bottom, and it will be difficult to stop this collapse.

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Commerzbank's currency strategists believe that the very low volatility of the euro against the dollar will continue until there is a breakthrough in US and Chinese trade negotiations. However, there is some lull in this field. Earlier in his speech, Fed Chief Jerome Powell reiterated market expectations for a long pause in the cycle of rate cuts. Note that this factor is bullish for the American currency. The duration of this stop will depend on the results of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, analysts recall.

The European currency has embarked on a slippery path of economic turmoil, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to follow it. On the one hand, the euro is under pressure from the slowdown in the eurozone economy, and on the other - the strengthening of the dollar. However, experts are confident that the euro will gather strength and overcome the attraction of current stagnation in the EUR/USD pair.

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Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on November 27

Economic calendar (Universal time)

The economic calendar for the current day is quite filled with statistics of varying degrees of importance. Among the most significant are data from the USA. Today, you need to pay attention to the publication of the following indicators:

13:30 basic orders for durable goods;

13:30 GDP;

15:00 index of incomplete sales in the real estate market;

15:30 crude oil reserves.

EUR / USD

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Over the past day, the movement had a narrow range as inhibition and reflection persist. The growth prospects of the players, in turn, still depend on the passage of the resistance zone 1.1030 (weekly short-term trend) - 1.1055 (daily cloud) - 1.1082 (daily Kijun + weekly Fibo Kijun). At the same time, the direction is open for players to decline, and new prospects will appear after passing the supports, which are formed by the minimum extreme of 1.0989 and 1.0879.

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At the moment, the players on the downside take advantage as they are supported by all the analyzed technical indicators. The classic pivot levels S1 (1.1010) - S2 (1.0999) - S3 (1.0991) can be intraday support. Moreover, consolidation above the central Pivot level (1.1018) will form the prerequisites for the development of an upward correction again, the key reference point of which will be the weekly long-term trend which is currently located at 1.1041. Breaking through this and its reversal will change the current balance of forces and require a new assessment of the situation.

GBP / USD

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The pair cannot leave the zone of attraction and remains tied to the accumulation of levels in the region of 1.2882. Here (area of 1.2882), quite several strong levels have joined forces now - the daily cross, the lower border of the weekly cloud, the monthly Fibo Kijun. At the same time, consolidation above can not only delay the development of the situation and maintain uncertainty, but, given the current situation, serve as a good basis and the beginning for a new strengthening of bullish sentiments and positions. The following resistances are located at 1.2959 (weekly cloud) - 1.3012 (maximum extremum). Updating the lows of last week (1.2822) and the area of prevailing uncertainty (1.2768) is now the main task of players to decline.

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It can be analyzed that technical indicators currently support players for a decline. Thus, we are seeing continued decline. The pair is close to updating last week's low (1.2822), strengthened today by S1 (1.2828). Now, updating 1.2822 and consolidating below is the main task for today for players to decline. The following support for classic Pivot levels are located today at 1.2796 (S2) - 1.2759 (S3). The development of correction and the subjugation of the key resistance of the lower halves of 1.2865-87 will significantly change the current balance of forces, since the key resistance of the lower halves now coincides with the most important area of attraction and resistance of the higher time intervals (1.2882).

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)

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