Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 25, 2014

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Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a seven-month high at 104.49 this morning. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 82.56 versus 82.16 early Friday) after less-dovish-than-expected speech from Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen at Jackson Hole on Friday. Her comments appeared more neutral than previously about concerns over slack in the labor market, encouraging market participants to prepare for the eventual rise in official short-term interest rates. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japanese importers as well as rise in shorter-dated U.S. Treasury yields (2-year at 0.492% versus 0.468% late Thursday). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japanese export sales and selling of yen crosses amid diminished investor risk appetite (S&P 500 slipped 0.2% Friday to close at 1,988.4) on fresh signs of Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter is at overbought; five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 104.25 and the second target at 104.50. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 103.40. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 103. The pivot point is at 103.65.


Resistance levels:

104.25

104.50

104.80


Support levels:

103.40

103

102.70


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 25, 2014

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Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a nine-month high at 0.9179 this morning. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the flows to haven CHF on renewed Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions. The daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics is bullish, although the latter is in the overbought zone, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9180 and the second target at 0.92. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9110. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9070. The pivot point is at 0.9125.


Resistance levels:

0.9180

0.92

0.9225



Support levels:


0.9110

0.9070

0.9050


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 25, 2014

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Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a near-six-month low 0.8336 this morning. It is undermined by the positive dollar sentiment, waning investor risk appetite and weak dairy prices; reduced expectations of further rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this year and Kiwi sales on the buoyant AUD/NZD cross. The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the latter is in the oversold zone, five and 15-day moving averages are declining.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8335. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.83. The pivot point stands at 0.8405. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8435 and the second target at 0.8465.


Resistance levels:

0.8435

0.8465

0.8490


Support levels:

0.8335

0.83

0.8275


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Daily analysis of Silver for August 25, 2014

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Overview


As shown in the today's H4 chart, the metal failed again to break the support level of 19.30 and is still trading between the support level and below the resistance level of 19.50. Currently, it is bouncing from the support level and ready for the bullish move. So, we still suggest waiting for closing above the resistance level of 19.50 in case of bouncing from the support level. It will give us a new opportunity for more buy signals with the first target few pips below the resistance level of 19.75. Then after breaking this resistance level, silver might open the way towards the resistance level of 20.00, which means more bullish signals. However, as long as the metal trades below the resistance level of 19.50 this cancels the bullish scenario.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (20.00), R2 (19.75), R1 (19.50), S1 (19.30), S2 (19.00), S3(18.75)


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 25, 2014

GBPJPYM30.png


Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. It is weighed by the diminished investor risk appetite, Japanese export sales and the weak EUR sentiment. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers and the buoyant USD/JPY undertone. The daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics is in a bullish mode, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 172.70 and the second target at 172.90. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 171.50. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 171.15. The pivot point is at 171.90.


Resistance levels:

172.70

172.90

173.30



Support levels:


171.50

171.15

170.75


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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for August 25, 2014

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Overview


From the today's H4 chart, yesterday's closing below the Resistance level of 172.60 gives the price an opportunity for a bearish move after its failure to break the resistance level. As shown in the chart, the price is trying to continue its bearish move by breaking the Support level 172.00 and closing 4h below. In that case, we might get another opportunity for more sell signals and it opens the way towards 171.50 as the first target. Then, the price should test the support level to continue its bearish move. But in case the price stabilizes above the Support level of 172.00, this will cancels the first scenario.


Resistance and Support levels: R3 (173.75), R2(173.30), R1(172.60), S1 (172.00), S2(171.50), S3(171.00)


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EUR/NZD analysis for August 25, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.5826 in an ultra high volume (buying climax) according to the 4H timeframe, which is a sign that buying looks very risky. It is still unsafe for any buying, so watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. If the price breaks the level of 1.5710 in a higher volume, we may see potential testing the level of 1.5595.


Fibonacci pivot levels :


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5807


R2: 1.5829


R3: 1.5864


Support levels:


S1: 1.5737


S2: 1.5715


S3: 1.5680


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.


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Gold analysis for August 25, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1,278.00. We are waiting for more robust activity and larger price action on the market. We got successful rejection from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8%, which caused price to start downward movement. Our Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1,284.00 is broken. So, we may see potential testing the level of 1,260.00 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). We can observe very weak demand according to the 4H timeframe, which is a sign that buying looks very risky. Watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,283.12


R2: 1,285.32


R3: 1,288.87


Support levels:


S1: 1,276.02


S2: 1,273.82


S3: 1,270.27


Trading recommendations: Buying Gold looks risky since price has broken the support level.


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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for August 25-29, 2014

Weekly technical levels of the GBP/USD pair.


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Overview :



  • The psychological level of the GBP/USD pair has set at the level of 1.6627.This level is acting as strong resistance and it coincides with the ratio of 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels in the daily chart. Therefore, the first key level will set at the level of 1.6622 (the weekly pivot point). Furthermore, the trend was very clear and was indicating a downtrend. Thus, we expect that the trend is going to call for a bearish market at the level of 1.6622 because sellers are asking for a high price. As a result, sell at the price of 1.6622 with the target of 1.6510. Also, it should be noted that the level of 1.6110 represents the weekly support 1.


gbpusdh1.png

Observations :



  • Major support for August 25-29, 2014: 1.6453

  • Major resistance for August 25-29, 2014: 1.6685

  • We expect a new range about 195 pips.

  • If the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.

  • Fibonacci retracement is used to determine accurate psychological levels of support and resistance. The period of time should be taken into account.

  • Fibonacci is in a range trade; it looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down. If you sell or buy in the long term in this period, you will surely lose your profit.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 25, 2014

2014-08-25-EURNZD-8H.png


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.5844


R2: 1.5825


R1: 1.5799


Current spot: 1.5771


S1: 1.5767


S2: 1.5735


S3: 1.5693


Technical summary:


We saw the expected decline in wave c of 2 to just below our target at 1.5716 (the low came in at 1.5693). Now, we are looking for a break above resistance at 1.5824 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.5867 to confirm that wave 3 is developing for a rally towards at least 1.6188 and more likely even higher towards 1.6496 as we should expect extension in wave 3. Short-term support at 1.5767 will ideally protect the downside for the expected break above 1.5824, but only a break below 1.5692 will delay the expected rally in wave 3.


Trading recommendation:


Our patience was honored and we bought EUR at 1.5725 with a stop at 1.5690. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.5767 with the same stop at 1.5690.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 25, 2014

2014-08-25-EURJPY-8H.png


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 137.66


R2: 137.43


R1: 137.30


Current spot: 137.27


S1: 137.14


S2: 137.00


S3: 136.81


Technical summary:


We have seen a rejection from resistance at 138.01, but we are not quite safe yet, as we need a break below support at 136.81 to confirm that the final decline towards 134.34 is developing. As we are locked inside an expanded ending diagonal, the expected decline towards 134.34 is unlikely to be pretty easy. In the short term, we will be looking for minor resistance at 137.30, which ideally will protect the upside for a decline to 136.81 and below, but only a break above resistance at 137.43 will cause concern.


Trading recommendation:


We are short in EUR at 137.75 and will move stop lower to 137.70. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell a break below 137.14 with the same stop at 137.70.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 25, 2014

General overview for 25/08/2014 10:30 CET


Green wave b looks like it is going to be more complex and time-consuming as it is evolving into the triangle pattern. When this pattern is completed, one more wave to the downside is anticipated here, with the targets at the level of 1.0926 or 1.0911. Then, an impulsive rebound should happen that will target new highs above the level of 1.0985.


Support/Resistance:


1.1020 - WR1


1.0985 - Swing High | Intraday Resistance|


1.0947 - Weekly Pivot


1.0926 - Intraday Support


1.0911 - WS1


Trading recommendations:


Traders should wait until the corrective cycle is completed and open the buy positions to trade in the direction of the larger time frame trend. Anticipated entry levels are shown on the chart.


usdcad_h1.jpg


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 25, 2014

General overview for 25/08/2014 10:00 CET


The wave 2 of 3 high at the level of 137.98 is the point of the reference for the further wave progression in this pair. The overall cycle is bearish. Currently, the market should gain more momentum as the wave -iii- to the downside is in progress. The intraday support level has been broken. The market is in the neutral zone and only a sustained breakout above the golden trendline could make the bulls regain the control. Otherwise, more downward price target should be seen soon, with the first support at the level of 136.85.


Support/Resistance:


138.05 - WR1


138.02 - Swing High |Invalidation Level|


137.98 - Wave 2 of 3 High


137.42 - Weekly Pivot


137.25 - Intraday Support


136.85 - WS1


136.70 - Bearish Zone Level


136.24 - WS2


Trading recommendations:


The short orders from the last week with SL above the level of 138.02 should be still kept open. New short orders can be added from the current price levels with the same SL as before and TP at the level of 136.70 with a very possible downside extension to the level of 135.70.


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#USDX Technical analysis for August 25, 2014

The Dollar index has given a buy signal from Friday. Today's gap up has brought it to new highs closer to our bullish flag target. The trend remains up but bulls should be very cautious. Price has held support levels on Friday and bounced breaking above the trend line resistance that gave us the buy signal at 82.20-82.25. Now, at 82.55 after making a high at 82.64, the pull back is a quite normal reaction to profit taking.


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The Dollar index remains above the Ichimoku cloud. The gap up may be an exhaustion gap as we are at the final stages of the upward move from 79.75. Support is critical at 82.15. Breaking below that level will confirm that the up trend is complete and over.


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In the daily chart, price has touched the upper channel boundaries. This is a typical chartacteristic at the end of big moves. So bulls should be very cautious and raise their stops as we might see a reversal from the current levels. Profit taking is preferred but not going short as this would be against the trend.


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Gold Wave analysis for August 25, 2014

Gold price has not made much progress either to the upside or to the downside. After making a low at $1,271 the upward bounce was weak and price is falling once again but not as strongly as before. The trend is neutral.


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The short-term trend remains down as price is below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4 hour chart and still inside the downward sloping channel. Price is making lower highs and lower lows. Support is found at $1,271. If support is broken, next support is at $1,264. Resistance is found at $1,284. If broken, we could see an upward move to $1,300.


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Critical support is found at the $1,260-70 area. If our wave count is correct, we should soon start an upward reversal that will bring Gold price towards the $1,340-50 area. However, price is well below the Ichimoku cloud in the daily chart. At $1,295 is the lower end of the Ichimoku cloud. Gold bulls will need to move back above that level in order to have hopes of reaching $1,350.


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Intraday analysis of GBP/JPY for August 25, 2014

1408947847_GBPJPYDaily.png


The pair has been able to close above 20DSma for the last 3 days. The pair is trading at the multi- resistance level at 172.64 above this, 172.95 (the 50.0 fib level), and 173. We expect the pair to touch 173.50 this week. A weekly close is above 173. The short-term strength will regain for the levels between 174.20 and 174.50. On the down side, it has support at 172.30 (100DSma) and 172.10 (20DSma). A daily close is below 172; it will fall down to the levels between 171.63 and 171.


Intraday cmp


GBPJPYH4.png

The prices are closed and trading above the 12 ema and the &34 hrsma levels. In the current h4 candle, the pair is facing resistance at 172.66. Above this,it is only safe to buy for intraday basis. On the down side, it has support at 172.33, 172.10, and 171.75 levels.


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Weekly forecast and an intraday recommendation on Gold for August 25-29, 2014

Weekly view (August 25-29)


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The Federal reserve is likely to hike interest rates earlier than expected. The yellow metal lost its shine, drifted to a 2-month low. The metal is trading in a verge of the 8 month old support trend line. On the down side, it has monthly support at the $1,240 levels. On the upper side, it has resistance at $1,291.50. Until the metal closes below $1,291.50, the bears will have control on a weekly basis. On the down side, it has support at $1,270, $1,266 and $1,260 is the weekly support level. On a daily basis, the metal is expected to close above $1,285 to recover its losses. If not on the downside, $1,259 is an inital open target.


Support is at $1,270, $1,266, and $1,260-$1,258.50.


Resistance is at $1,285, $1,291, and 1303.50.


Intraday cmp $1,278.30


GOLDH4.png

The metal opened its session with a minor bearish note. The prices are closed and trading below $1,2ema, negative for hourly and intraday as well. The metal could face further downside move until the price closes below $1,281 (12ema). Selling on every rise will mint the money. In early Asia's session, the metal rejected exactly from 12ema in H4 chart. If the metal manages to close a candle in h4 chart above $1,281, it can fly up to $1,284 and $1,290 levels.


A daily close above the weekly trend turns to positive. - Pending


A candle closes above $1,281, hourly trading turns to positive. - Pending


Safe buy above $1,283.


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Weekly forecast and an intraday analysis of EUR/USD for August 25-29, 2014

EUR/USD


EURUSDWeekly.png

The pair is trading at 11-month low; it closed below the 61.8 fib level in the monthly chart. The pair made a low at 1.3186 in early Pacific session. On the downside, it has support at 1.3174 (the low in August 2013 ) and 1.3105 (the low in September 2013). The pair is trading with a long-term bearish sign; it closed below the 2 and half year's support trend line. The Dollar enjoying a tremendous strength against its counter pairs.


Until the pair closes above 1.3420, selling on a rally will mint the money on a monthly basis attracting lower targets at the 1.31, 1.3 and 1.2750 levels in the medium term.


Weekly support (August 25- 29)


Support 1.3160 1.3105


Resistance 1.3240 1.3295


Intraday cmp 1.3199


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The pair made a low at 1.3186 in early Pacific session. In the H1 chart, the pair made a minor support at the 1.3197 and 1.3191 levels. On the upper side, it has resistance at 1.3224, 1.3250 and 1.3262. Until the H1 candle closes above 1.3224, the pair looks weak. For an intraday basis, until the price closes above 1.3250 in H4 chart, the weakness still underpins the pair.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 25, 2014

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Ifo Business Climate and Belgian NBB Business Climate.The US will disclose its Flash Services PMI and New Home Sales data. So amid the reports, EUR/USD is likely to move low to medium volatility during this day.


Today's technical levels:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.3255.

Strong Resistance:1.3247.

Original Resistance: 1.3234.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3221.

Target Inner Area: 1.3190.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3169.

Original Support: 1.3146.

Strong Support: 1.3133.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3125.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 25, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data today, but the US will unveil its Flash Services PMI and New Home Sales reoprts. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility today.


Today's technical levels:


Resistance. 3: 104.74.

Resistance. 2: 104.54.

Resistance. 1: 104.33.

Support. 1: 104.08.

Support. 2: 103.87.

Support. 3: 103.67.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of Silver for Aug 25, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Silver seems to have formed base at $19.30 levels last week, and should resume rally from current price of $19.43/45. Please note that the metal is just shy of the fibonacci 0.786 support level ($19.26). Recommendation is to remain long, risk remains below $19.00.


2. Support is seen at $19.00, followed by $18.60 and lower while resistance is seen at $20.10 (interim), followed by $21.70, $22.30 and higher respectively.


3. The structure indicates that Silver rally from current levels remains highly probable.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop below $19.00, target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for Aug 25, 2014
















Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Gold is trading around $1,278.00 levels for now and should rally from here on. It appears that the metal has formed base at $1,271.00 levels last week and that bulls should take back control. Recommendations are to remain long for now, risk remains below $1,271.00 levels.


2. Support is at $1,270.00 (interim), followed by $1,260.00, $1,240.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,324.00 followed by $1,340.00 and higher respectively.


3. The structure indicates that Gold could possibly resume rally from current levels.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop below $1,270.00, target is open.


Good luck!


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Daily analysis of USDX for August 25, 2014

Daily chart: The USDX had a bullish momentum during the Friday's session as this instrument continued to form a lower high pattern below the resistance level of 82.51. Note that if the USDX manages to make a breakout at that level, the next target would be the resistance level of 83.22 in the medium term. The MACD indicator stays in positive territory.


USDXDaily.png

H4 chart: The USDX has made a rebound near to the support level of 82.20. So it is trying to make a breakout in the bullish trend line. If it succeeds, it would be expected to rise to the level of 83.65 in the medium term, where another trend line is located. For now, it is better to wait for this instrument to get consolidated above that bullish trend line.


USDXH4.png

H1 chart: The USDX is trying to form a lower high pattern above the support level of 82.32, so the next objective is the resistance level of 82.50. If the USDX manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to that rise to the level of 82.67. The MACD indicator is entering overbought area.


USDXH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 82.50, take profit is at 82.67, and stop loss is at 82.35.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 25, 2014

Daily chart: GBP/USD is kept below the 200-day moving average due to the fact that itis trying to touch the support level of 1.6540 in this chart. Now, GBP/USD could begin to form a higher low pattern, so it is likely that this pair will perform corrective movements this week. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.


GBPUSDDaily.png


H4 chart: GBP/USD continues to find support at the level of 1.6553, where it has made a rebound to go up to the level of 1.6583, where a bearish trend line is located. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at that level, the next target would be the resistance level of 1.6644, which would be very likely due to the fact that this pair is oversold. The MACD indicator stays in positive territory.


GBPUSDH4.png


H1 chart: This pair continues falling below the 200-day moving average and GBP/USD is now, doing a breakout at the support level of 1.6577, so it is likely that this pair will falls to the support level of 1.6544 within hours. If the GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall until the support level of 1.6507. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.


GBPUSDH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6544, take profit is at 1.6507, and stop loss is at 1.6581.


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