Daily analysis of USD/JPY for July 24, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair succeeded to touch our second target at 110.98. Today, the pair opened with a more decline to move below it now, as it closed the last four hours' candlestick below it. This indicates the extension of the bearish wave towards the next correctional level at 110.15. Therefore, we expect the continuation of the negative pressure on the intraday and short-term basis supported by the EMA50. Please take into consideration that breaching 111.65 followed by 112.32 levels will stop the expected decline and lead the price to regain its main bullish track again. The expected trading range for today is between 110.00 support and 111.65 resistance.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for July 25, 2017

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Overview

GBP/JPY is trading with the overall bearish bias. The pair is heading for 144.00 that is the first target of the recent downward trend. Importantly, the continuation of the negative pressure will allow the price to surpass the current target, so that we expect the pair to move towards the 55 moving average around 143.50. The consolidation of stochastic within the oversold areas reinforces the negative overview for the near term and medium term. This eases the attempt of breaking the initial barrier and the pair can reach the previously mentioned target. The expected trading range for today is between 145.35 and 143.50

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Daily analysis of Gold for July 24, 2017

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Overview

Gold price has settled around 1,254.56 level after the bullish rally in the recent sessions. The price closed last week above this level. The metal is paving the way to continue the bullish trend on the short-term basis to head towards the previously recorded top at 1,295.37 as a next main station. Therefore, we still suggest the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions supported by the EMA50 that keeps carrying the price from below. We take into consideration that breaking 1,245.00 will push the price to test 1,229.32 areas again before any new attempt to rise. The expected trading range for today is between 1,245.00 support and 1,265.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for July 24, 2017

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Overview

Silver price has been able to reach our expected target at 16.56 and has settled near it. This level forms solid resistance that might force the price to show some temporary bearish rebound before resuming the positive bias again. The EMA50 hits the mentioned level to add more strength to it, while stochastic is showing overbought signals now. Therefore, we prefer a cautious approach until we get a clearer signal for the next trend. The pair is expected to breach one of the key levels represented by 16.56 resistance and 16.20 support to confirm the next destination. Please note that breaching the mentioned resistance will extend silver price gains to reach 17.43 on the near-term basis, while breaking the support will push the price to test 15.49 areas before any new positive attempt. The expected trading range for today is between 16.20 support and 16.60 resistance.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 24, 2017

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Our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. The pair broke below the key support at 111.45, which becomes the key resistance now. The downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50.

Hence, as long as 111.45 is not surpassed, look for a further downside to 110.35 and even to 110.00 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction than predicted, a long position is recommended above 111.45 with a target at 111.80.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position while the price below the pivot point is a sign for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 111.45, Take Profit: 110.35

Resistance levels: 112.40, 112.70, and 113.15 Support Levels: 111.10, 110.75, 110.50

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for July 24, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The entire month of July, we have waited patiently for EURUSD to produce a top and reverse. This week finally seems critical for several instruments across the board for forming major tops and bottoms and hence several articles and trading plans shall be submitted to plan for this week and the next series to follow. A bigger picture is presented here (weekly chart), and it clearly suggests that the pair has either worked out a W, X, Y or is unfolding an A, B, C (c will unfold into 5 waves) around the 1.1600/1.1700 resistance zone. On shorter time frames, the pair looks to have completed an ending diagonal wave structure and might be looking to reverse either from here or between 1.1700/1.1800 levels. Resistance is strong here and with the series also approaching its last trading days, we remain optimistic for a bearish turn.

Trading plan:

Initiate short positions now (1.1640/45), stop at 1.1750, target is open.

GBP/USD chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

As in EUR/USD, we have presented a bigger picture in GBPUSD as well with daily chart outlook. The pair looks to be working out on a major top at 1.3120/30 levels, which can be defined as wave (4) at a higher degree. The pair has slowly carved out its wave (4) resistance since past several months as seen here, and if this holds to be true, the next big move should come on the south side. A great confidence on the bearish setup would come on a break below 1.2800 levels but a slightly aggressive approach would encourage a bearish move from here itself. Strong Fibonacci 0.786 resistance has stalled prices till now at 1.3120 levels and the pair should face pressure lower from here.

Trading plan:

Please remain short from here, stop at 1.3150 targets 1.2800, 1.2600 and lower.

Fundamental outlook:

There is no major fundamental event lined up for the day ahead.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 24, 2017

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Our target which we predicted in our previous article has been hit. The pair is trading below its declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is bearish and calls for another drop.

Hence, as long as 0.9505 is not surpassed, a further decline to 0.9400 and even to 0.9375 seems more likely to occur.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point; the present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9505, Take Profit: 0.9400

Resistance levels: 0.9540, 0.9565, and 0.9595

Support levels: 0.940, 0.9375, and 0.9335

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 24, 2017

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Our target which we described in our previous analysis has been hit. GBP/JPY is still under pressure and expected to trade downside. The pair broke below its former key support at 145.35, which becomes a key resistance now, and consolidated on the downside. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. The declining 50-period moving average is playing a resistance role and maintains the downside bias. As long as 146.35 holds on the upside, look for a further drop towards 143.55 and even 143.20 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a long position is recommended above 145.35 with the target at 145.70.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and when it is below pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 145.35, Take Profit: 143.55.

Resistance levels: 145.70, 146.30, and 148.00

Support levels: 143.55, 143.20, and 142.45.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 24, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The technical outlook of the pair is positive as the price recorded higher tops and higher bottoms since July 20. The upward momentum is further reinforced by both ascending 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength is bullish above its neutrality level at 50.

To conclude, as long as 0.7390 holds on the downside, look for a new upside to 0.7500 and even to 0.7530 in extension.

Strategy: BUY Stop Loss: 0.7390 Take Profit: 0.7470

Chart Explanation:

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it is below the pivot points, it indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.750, 0.7530, and 0.7565

Support levels: 0.7360, 0.7330, and 0.7285

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Trading plan 24 - 28/07/2017

Trading plan 24 - 28/07/2017

The general picture: The Fed, the US GDP. Probable correction on the trend.

In the market, the general trend against the US dollar (except for the yen). The trend against the dollar, the euro, franc, pound, gold. The yen under the pressure of other currencies departs from the trend for the dollar.

At the same time, a significant distance has been traversed by the trend, in particular, the trend for the EUR / USD trend is already in the fifth month. In July the growth of 450 points in the 4-digit and a correction is very probable.

That is purchases with strong kickbacks.

And the reasons for kickbacks are the most important news in the United States.

On Wednesday, new decisions will be announced from the Fed. Nobody expects a rate increase from the current 1.00 - 1.25% (average 1.125%).

However, the statement of the Fed will be carefully examined for the purpose of assessing inflation and the question of the moment when the withdrawal of liquidity from the markets begins (September or December - the beginning of the process?)

Next, on Friday, July 28, the first US GDP report for the 2nd quarter will be released. Experts expect strong growth of + 2.6% (forecast range from +2.2 to +2.9), while the deflator is also important.

Both events, the Fed and the US GDP are quite capable of causing a significant pullback after strong trends and strengthening of the dollar.

EUR / USD

The trend of growth. Purchases after significant kickbacks. There are no levels to enter the sales for a breakthrough yet. Possible sales from the maximum of the week with a stop of no more than 50 points.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for July 24, 2017

Recently, EUR/USD has broken above the highest resistance in 2.5 years at 1.1500. In light of the recent downbeat economic reports from the US and hawkish sentiment on the Euro amid ECB reports and speeches, the currency pair is set to continue to its bullish moves further. Today a series of economic reports were published in the eurozone with the mostly gloomy results. Today, French Flash Manufacturing PMI was published with an increased figure at 55.4 from previous figure at 54.8 which was expected to decrease to 54.6, French Flash Services PMI showed decrease to 55.9 from previous figure at 56.9 which was expected to be at 56.6, German Flash Manufacturing PMI report showed a decrease to 58.3 from previous value of 59.6 which was expected to be at 59.1, German Flash Services PMI report also showed a decrease to 53.5 from the previous value of 54.0 which was expected to increase to 54.4. Along with these reports, Euro Flash Manufacturing PMI report was also published with a decreased figure at 56.8 from previous figure at 57.4 which was expected to be at 57.3, Euro Flash Services PMI report was published with an unchanged figure at 55.4 which was expected to have a slight increase to 55.5 and German Buba Monthly Report is also going to be published today which is expected to be hawkish in nature. On the USD side, today we have Flash Manufacturing PMI report which is expected to increase to 52.3 from the previous value of 52.0, Flash Services PMI is expected to increase to 54.3 from the previous value of 54.2, and Existing Home Sales report is expected show a decrease to 5.59M from the previous value of 5.62M. To sum up, EUR is currently quite stronger than USD and its strength is expected to continue further but a series of downbeat reports from the eurozone is likely to cap the growth in the short term. So we might observe USD gaining some momentum to retrace to a certain extent before EUR takes off with the further bullish pressure with a much higher price destination.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing some bullish rejection in light of the weak economic reportsfrom the eurozone. Currently we are expecting a short-term bearish move to retrace towards 115.00 support level before progressing further upward towards 1.2050 resistance level. As the price remains above the dynamic level of 20 EMA, the bullish bias is expected to continue further in this pair.

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Global macro overview for 24/07/2017

Global macro overview for 24/07/2017:

Today's OPEC and non-OPEC members meeting in Petersburg will not likely result in an agreement to reduce production. Six ministers will gather to discuss compliance with May's output-cut deal, as well as the market outlook. The issue of growing production in Libya and Nigeria is still not resolved, in countries where (due to mining below historical norms) no limits have been imposed in May. Since then, however, both countries have increased production levels significantly, undermining efforts by the rest of the OPEC members to limit the oil supply and rebalance the market. Even less are the chances that Saudi Arabia will propose a unilateral and voluntary reduction in the supply of crude oil. The seasonal drop in stockpiles in the summer months is an absolutely typical thing. In this light, investors should turn their attention back to growing oil mining activity in the US and, apparently, weaker compliance with the end of last year.

The market participants should focus on the news regarding the possibility of an agreement between the OPEC and Lybia and Nigeria, or whether OPEC can find a way to offset that overproduction by imposing more reductions elsewhere. If this scenario will turn out to be correct, the Canadian Dollar will be in the corrective phase of the last major strengthening, which moved the USD/CAD down to the long-term technical support of just above 1.2500 level. Nevertheless, there is still a chance for the price to test the muli-month technical support at the level of 1.2456 before any meaningful correction occurs.

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USD/JPY analysis for July 24, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 110.62. According to the 4H time frame, I found that sellers are still in control and that breakout of rising wedge from a week ago was the main reason why sellers entered the market. My advice is still to watch for selling opportunities. I found lower high and lower lows, which is a sign that buying looks risky. The final downward target is set at the price of 108.85 (projected wedge target).

Resistance levels:

R1: 111.20

R2: 111.35

R3: 111.52

Support levels:

S1: 110.85

S2: 110.70

S3: 111.55

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for July 24, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1650. According to the 30M time frame, I found strong buying pressure in the background, which is a sign that selling looks risky. The price successfully tested the previous day high and that resistance became support. The relative strength index looks oversold and my advice is to watch for potential buying opportutniies. The upward target is set at the price of 1.1680. and 1.1700.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1675

R2: 1.1682

R3: 1.1688

Support levels:

S1: 1.1663

S2: 1.1657

S3: 1.1650

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 24/07/2017:

Global macro overview for 24/07/2017:

The latest data from US Manufacturing and Services sectors might surprise market participants. Preliminary estimates of economic activity in this two sectors will be released during the US session and market participants expect another round of positive economic data. The PMI Services sector is expected to maintain a moderately strong rate of growth, which is still above the fifty level. The PMI Manufacturing sector is also expanding at a good pace and keep up above the fifty level as well.

Manufacturing is a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy. Last week regional manufacturing data from the US posted little softer figures as both New York Fed and Philly Fed Manufacturing Indices felt, which might indicate the third quarter will get a little cooler than the first two. Nevertheless, the underlying trend of reported output to is still moving up and it is expected to gradually accelerate over the coming months.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market has broken below the 61%Fibo at the level of 110.97 and currently is trying to test the nearest technical support at the level of 100.61. The growing bullish divergence and oversold market conditions indicate a possible bounce towards the level of 111.71.

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Trading plan for 24/07/2017

Trading plan for 24/07/2017:

No important weekend developments resulted in a quiet start of the trading week. EUR/USD is still over 1.1670, USD/JPY violated 111.00 level and GBP/USD has returned above 1.3000 level after the reports from the British political scene indicating a lower risk of uncontrolled Brexit. Before the OPEC meeting, crude oil is stable and priced at $45.80. On the Asian stock exchanges mixed moods prevail. The Nikkei 225 falls 0.5%, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up 0.5%. S&P500 futures are below 2,465 point and slide 0.2%.

On Monday 24th of July, the event calendar is busy with important economic releases. During the London session, global investors will pay attention to flash PMIs from the Eurozone, Germany, and France. Later, during the US session, Canada will provide the wholesales sales data and another round of flash PMIs from the US will be provided.

EUR/USD analysis for 24/07/2017:

A bunch of flash PMIs data from the Eurozone, Germany, and France is scheduled for release from 07:00 am to 08:00 am GMT. Market participants are expecting that today's PMI survey data will continue to support moderate growth in the Eurozone at the start of the third quarter. The Flash Composite PMI is expected at the level of 56.2 and if it meets expectations, then the index will post its seventh straight reading above 56 – an upbeat trend that points to an economic recovery that's likely to carry over into the second half of the year. As a result, the GDP forecasts for the next quarter might be revised a little bit higher and current estimates are around 1.9% this year from a previous estimate of 1.7%. Despite the upbeat data, the ECB Governing Council did not decide to hike the interest rate, mostly because of a lack of the inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, better than expected data should support the positive mood around the euro currency across the board.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The market almost hit the important multi-month technical resistance at the level of 1.1715 and it looks like it will first test the 1.1583 support. The clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator supports this view. Nevertheless, this pullback is considered as corrective and the bigger timeframe trend is still up.

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Market Snapshot: DAX30 is about to close the gap

The price of German stock index DAX30 trades below 50 and 100 days moving averages and it is about to close the gap between the level of 12,093 - 12,302. Nevertheless, the more important technical support is seen at the level of 11,886, so as long as this level is not clearly violated, the bigger time frame trend is still up.

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Market Snapshot: USD/CHF at the multi-month lows

The price of USD/CHF has broken below all of the technical support levels and now has hit the multi-moth lows at the level of 0.9442. This pair is very susceptible to a bounce or a correction as the daily momentum oscillator clearly shows bullish divergence. The next techcnial resistnace is seen at the level of 0.9521 and 0.9550.

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Technical analysis of USDX for July 24, 2017

The Dollar index remains in a bearish trend. There are bullish divergence signals but no trend reversal confirmation yet even in the 4-hour time frame. However bears need to be very cautious as the downward move has reached extension targets.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The Dollar index is trading below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Trend is clearly bearish as price continues to make lower lows and lower highs. Short-term resistance is at 94.50. Support is at 93.50.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The downward move that started in early 2017 has now reached the 161.8% extension of the first leg down from 103.70 to 99 in December 2016. A bounce from current levels or from 93 is very possible and bears should be very careful and protect their positions with trailing stops.

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Technical analysis of gold for July 24, 2017

Gold price has reached our target area of $1,250-60. Trend remains bullish. Gold price could see $1,260 or higher today but bulls need to be cautious as this is a strong short-term resistance area. A pullback even for the bullish scenario is justified and highly probable.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Gold price is trading inside the bullish channel. Trend is clearly bullish in the short term. Support is at $1,247 and resistance at $1,260. Cloud support at $1,230 could be a nice short-term pullback target to confirm break out with a backtest.

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On a daily basis, trend remains bearish as price is below the Kumo (cloud) and has not broken above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement yet. We mentioned in previous posts that a pause in the rise could be seen between $1,250-60 as this is important resistance area.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro goes to White Castle

Eurozone

The ECB kept the monetary policy unchanged at the July 20 meeting. The ECB head, Mario Draghi's speech was underlined by dovish sentiments at the press conference. However, it had no effect on the market's reaction.

The emphasis was on inflation. Draghi said that despite the growth of the economy and reduction of unemployment, these parameters are not decisive factors in policy making. This is because the ECB should first consider price stability. With inflation remaining weak along with wage growth caused by the impending fall in energy prices in the coming months, there is no need to wait for inflation to grow. In other words, there are no economic prerequisites in the reduction of the incentive program.

Draghi did everything he could but the market did not believe him. The signals of economic growth which are too strong will force the ECB to react, according to market players. The euro continues to be in demand despite Draghi's desperate attempts to stop growth. According to the European Commission, the Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) for June increased significantly in the euro area by 1.9 points (to 111.1) and in the EU by 1.6 points (to 111.3), reaching the highest level since August 2007.

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The focus of expectations shifted to September 7 but Draghi refused to answer the question about whether the next meeting will be open for discussions regarding the reduction of the incentive program. He said that the ECB members unanimously left this date open.

Today, Markit will publish preliminary values for the business activity indices in the euro area for the month of July. It is expected that they will remain at the level of five-year highs, which will support the euro. In general, this week for the euro will be calm since no significant macroeconomic events are planned. Instead, the market will be more focused on news from the United States.

The euro remains the favorite in the currency pair. Signs of change in the ratio of investors to the dollar have not yet been observed. The political crisis in the US is gaining momentum and it is quite likely that the impeachment process of President Trump will begin. The achievement of 1.18 for this week is already likely.

United Kingdom

The pound received support after the publication of data on retail sales in June. The growth was 0.6% at an annual rate of 2.9%. Both are above the level of May and higher than expected. This should compensate, to some extent, the negative effects of the slowdown in inflation. However, the market did not react positively to the sales growth which hid stagnation in the dynamics of retail prices. This has not changed since February 2017 and therefore, confirms the policy of slowing inflation.

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The key data for the pound will come on Wednesday. A preliminary estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter will be published with negative expectations. There is a serious danger of seeing a weak report which, combined with low inflation, will increase the likelihood of the Bank of England refusing aggressive rhetoric, provoking a decline in the pound.

At the same time, one cannot ignore the fact that the markets are highly disappointed because of the delay in launching Trump's incentive program. The dollar remains under strong pressure. This factor can prevent the development of a downward dynamics in the pound.

Oil and ruble

Today, the meeting of the OPEC Technical Committee begins. According to preliminary information, quotas for oil production in Nigeria and Libya will be discussed. Both countries publicly stated the need to increase production in order to achieve a stable level of production. After this, they will be ready to join the OPEC agreement.

Quotes of oil turned up last week with some of the incoming information being clearly bearish. In particular, according to the report of Petro-Logistics, the volume of OPEC deliveries will exceed 33 million barrels in June. Production per day will increase relative to the values in June.

The Bank of Russia will hold a regular meeting regarding its monetary policy on Friday, July 28. Market expectations are neutral because of the threat of inflation. The rate may remain unchanged or a decline of 0.25% may occur. If this happens, the text accompanying the statement will be cautious without indications of a further decline. The ruble currently doesn't have a driver so trading in the range of 58/60 for the RUB/USD is most likely.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 24, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place in May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which is being temporarily breached to the upside.

Now the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 turns to be a newly-established demand-zone to be watched for possible bullish rejection if any bearish pullback occurs.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 24, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until a breakout occurs in either direction.

The recent bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.1500, 1.1600, 1.1710 and eventually 1.2000.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a temporary bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart.

The nearest supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.1720 (August 2015 Highest level) where price action should be watched for a bearish pullback.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1260-1.1130 stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched if bearish pullback persists below 1.1400.

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Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/NZD for July 24, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/NZD remains locked in the 1.5577 - 1.5730 range. We are still looking for a break above the minor resistance at 1.5730 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.5899 to confirm the next impulsive rally higher towards 1.6236 and above.

A break below 1.5577 will delay the expected rally higher, but support at 1.5419 should protect the downside.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5510 with stop placed at 1.5410. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.5577 or upon a break above 1.5730 and use the same stop.

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Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/JPY for July 24, 2017

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Wave summary:

Our preferred count remains, that wave iv still is in progress and a final decline towards 127.22 is needed to complete wave c of iv and set the stage for the final rally higher in wave v towards 133.46.

Only a direct break above resistance at 130.77 will indicate that wave iv already is complete and wave v is developing.

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 129.88 with stop+revers at 130.80. Take profit is placed at 127.50

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 24, 2017

EUR/USD: On the EUR/USD, bulls are the clear winners this week. Price has already gone above the multi-month high at 1.1600, and it closed above the support line at 1.1650 on Friday. There could be further bullish movement this week, for the resistance lines at 1.1700, 1.1750 and 1.1800 could be tested this week. It should also be borne in mind that the further the market goes upwards, the more the chances of a significant pullback.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF went south by 180 pips last week, having lost about 620 pips since May 11. There is a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart and further downwards movement could be seen, as price goes towards the support levels at 0.9400, 0.9350 and 0.9300. On the hand, there could be a meaningful rally when USD gains stamina.

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GBP/USD: The Cable is neutral in the short-term, and bullish in the long-term. A movement above the distribution territory at 1.3150 would strengthen the recent bullish bias; a movement below the accumulation territory at 1.2800 would result in a bearish bias. A movement between the distribution territory at 1.3050 and the accumulation territory at 1.2950 would result in further neutrality.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY lost about 140 pips last week, testing the demand level at 111.00. Since July 11, the price has lost about 310 pips, leading to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The demand levels at 111.00, 110.50 and 109.50 should be tested this week, owing to a strong bearish outlook on JPY pairs this week.

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EUR/JPY: This cross has held out its bullishness so far. The market consolidated last week, and it can go further upwards from here, reaching the supply zones at 130.50 and 131.00. One reason the cross is able to remain bullish till now is the strength in the EUR itself, and things would begin to drop once the EUR loses strength. There is a possibility of a bearish reversal before the end of the month.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 24, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, and French Flash Manufacturing PMI. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Existing Home Sales, Flash Services PMI, and Flash Manufacturing PMI, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1736.

Strong Resistance:1.1729.

Original Resistance: 1.1718.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1707.

Target Inner Area: 1.1679.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1651.

Original Support: 1.1640.

Strong Support: 1.1629.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1622.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 24, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Flash Manufacturing PMI data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Existing Home Sales, Flash Services PMI, and Flash Manufacturing PMI. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.46.

Resistance. 2: 111.24.

Resistance. 1: 111.03.

Support. 1: 110.76.

Support. 2: 110.55.

Support. 3: 110.33.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

We remain bearish looking to sell below major resistance at 1.1691 (Fibonacci extension, Elliott wave theory) for a corrective push down to at least 1.1583 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 98% where we expect a corresponding reaction from.

Sell below 1.1691. Stop loss is at 1.1736. Take profit is at 1.1583.

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USD/CHF right on major support, prepare to buy

The price has dropped further and is now testing major support at 0.9440 (Fibonacci extension, the lowest point in past 2 years) and we expect to see a bounce above this level to at least 0.9491 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is bouncing nicely above our support at 3.6%.

Buy above 0.9440. Stop loss is at 0.9419. Take profit is at 0.9491.

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NZD/USD approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

The price is fast approaching major resistance at 0.7480 (highest point for past 2 years) and we expect to see a drop from that level to at least 0.7394 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing nice resistance below 94% and we expect to see a corresponding drop from this level.

Sell below 0.7480. Stop loss is at 0.7510. Take profit is at 0.7394.

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GBP/USD profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell from here

The price has bounced up and reached our profit target. We prepare to sell below 1.3006 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) for a drop towards at least 1.2929 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is fast approaching our 95% resistance where we expect a reaction from.

Sell below 1.3006. Stop loss is at 1.3053. Take profit is at 1.2929.

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AUD/JPY profit target reached perfectly, remain bearish for a further drop

The price has dropped perfectly from our selling area and has reached our profit target. We remain bearish looking to sell below 88.15 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a further drop towards 87.52 support (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

RSI (34) sees long term resistance holding price momentum down which helps us keep our bearish bias.

Sell below 88.15. Stop loss is at 88.60. Take profit is at 87.52.

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USD/JPY testing another major support, we prepare for a bounce

The price has dropped further and is now testing another key support level at 110.88 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci extension) and we expect to see a bounce above this level for a short term correction to at least 112.42 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing nice support above 1.2% where we expect a bounce from.

Buy above 110.88. Stop loss is at 109.97. Take profit is at 112.42.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 24, 2017

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair continues to rise from the level of 1.3001 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.3001 which represents the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest levels of 1.2912 and 1.3001. So, buy above the level of 1.3051 with the first target at 1.3177 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.3242 in coming days. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.3242 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top this week. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3001, a further decline to 1.2851 can occur which would indicate a bearish market. Overall, the market is still calling for a strong bullish market as long as the trend is set above the spot of 1.2912.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 24, 2017

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the level of 1.1562 last week. The level of 1.1562 coincides with 78.6% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as major support today. Since the trend is above the 78.6% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. From this point, the EUR/USD pair is continuing in a bullish trend from the new support of 1.1562. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to move between 1.1562 and 1.1766 in the coming day. On the H4 chart, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.1766 and 1.1833. Also, it should be noticed that the level of 1.1616 represents the daily pivot point. Therefore, strong support will be formed at the level of 1.1616 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 1.1766. If the trend breaks the support at 1.1766 (first resistance) the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 1.1833 in order to test the daily resistance 2. However, stop loss is to be placed below the level of 1.1562.
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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 24, 2017

The pair is moving in sideways around the 200 SMA zone at H1 chart and still, the bullish structure doesn't have enough strength. We need to see a break above the resistance level of 1.3037 in order to test the 1.3106 level. However, GBP/USD is struggling to hold above 1.2968 and if that zone gives up, a decline could be seen towards 1.2882.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3037 / 1.3106

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2968 / 1.2882

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3037, take profit is at 1.3106 and stop loss is at 1.2968.

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Daily analysis of USDX for July 24, 2017

The index continues to be strongly bearish on a short-term basis and looks to break the support level of 94.16, targeting the 93.29 level and it could be reached during this week. The 200 SMA at H1 chart still is setting the tone in the greenback and gains should be limited by that area. MACD indicator is flat, calling for sideways.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.85 / 95.57

H1 chart's support levels: 94.16 / 93.29

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.16, take profit is at 93.29 and stop loss is at 95.02.

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Доллар продолжит падение

The dollar is on the back of weak macroeconomic data, growth of domestic political risks, and increasing confidence in the europe.

The reports of regional offices.

The indicators for all the components of the index-total activity, new orders, supplies, employment and hours of work declined, with the result for July.

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The worsening of indicators did not go unnoticed by investors.

This change in sentiment is the first in at least six months, and is based on deeper reasons.

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Investors are waiting for the promised reforms, but they only see streamlined formulations. Janet Yellen, speaking in Congress on July 12, noted that the Fed at the current stage can not implement an effective monetary policy because the "Trump team" does not have a clear fiscal policy. In other words, Yellen directly shifted responsibility for further actions to the Minister of Finance, which should submit a detailed plan for tax reform in the very future.

However, so far the situation is developing according to a different logic. On Thursday, the Securities and Exchange (SEC) introduced new regulations that effectively abolish the Dodd-Frank Act of July 21, 2010. This law was put in place to control the activities of financial institutions during the financial crisis. It was adopted despite the resistance of Republicans, and its abolition actually means the return of the right to banks to directly invest investors' funds in hedge funds and private equity funds. In other words, financial companies and banks will regain the right to work, including in the raw materials market, and on the securities market for speculative operations. Trump stands for the repeal of this law, suggesting that this will increase business activity, and banks will have more opportunities to invest in the economy. As part of the overall logic of Trump's reforms, the move to lift restrictions seems logical, especially in the area of the likely removal of the Fed from the excess reserves of commercial banks.

Banks, therefore, will pull out their reserves from the Fed's correspondent accounts and invest them in riskier, but at the same time, more profitable operations. Perhaps this is where one should look for the answer to the question of where does Trump intends to take the money for the reform?

The dollar will continue to remain under pressure at the opening of the week. There are no reasons to expect a change in sentiment, since the main macroeconomic indicators point to a negative trend. The dollar is also being pressured by the domestic political situation, in particular, the intention of special prosecutor Robert Mueller to collect information about a number of business operations by Donald Trump and a number of related people.

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