The yen retreats under the onslaught of the S&P 500

The escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China has returned investors' interest to the question of why the asylum assets do not respond to the growth of geopolitical risks? Indeed, import duties lead to a slowdown in economic growth, and in such circumstances, investors prefer to reinsure and invest in reliable currencies. Nevertheless, neither the Japanese yen nor the Swiss franc received any special dividends because of Beijing's announcement that tariffs for supplies of American goods to China would increase by $ 110 billion, equivalent to 85% of imports.

Attempts to look for the weakness of the yen against the US dollar in the divergence in monetary policy of the Fed and the Bank of Japan have grounds but do not explain the low sensitivity of the currency of the rising sun to geopolitics. Moreover, after the meeting of the Board of Governors, the volatility of the yen fell due to the transparent policy of the Central Bank. He is still going to expand the monetary base by £ 80 trillion a year, prefers negative rates and does not intend to make adjustments to the management strategy of the yield curve. Allegedly, I do not intend to. In fact, BoJ came out with a proposal for unlimited purchase of securities, when the rates for 10-year bonds reached the level of 0.145%. Previously, the regulator did not allow them to exceed the 0.1% mark.

The dynamics of the monthly volatility of the yen

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It is possible that BoJ did not focus investors' attention on the important step because of concerns about the strengthening of the yen. The fact is that the increase in the yield of Japanese bonds will increase the risks of repatriation of capital to their homeland. Given the fact that investors from the Land of the Rising Sun have foreign debt obligations of $ 2.4 trillion, about 45% of which are issued in the US, the risks of the USD / JPY decline seem significant.

Personally, I'm not at all surprised at the Bank of Japan's hidden intentions to make adjustments to the process of targeting the yield curve. Over the past 5 years, he expanded the monetary base three-fold, increased the share of bonds in the portfolio from 12% to 48%, but never did the most important thing - the inflation rate to the target of 2%.

The main reason, because of which the yen can not benefit from trade wars, must be sought in the differentiation of markets. If the US stock indices show the longest week-long winning streak since December, the fall of the Shanghai Composite has moved China from the second line in the list of the largest equity markets in the world. It was first taken from Japan in 2014. Thus, the factor of overclocking of the US economy under the influence of the fiscal stimulus outweighs the risks of slowing global GDP and contributes to the growth of USD / JPY.

The speed of American inflation is important for predicting the future dynamics of the pair. The higher it is, the greater the chances of four acts of monetary restriction of the Federal Reserve in 2018. In this respect, investors should closely monitor the release of data on the US CPI on August 10.

Technically, USD / JPY continues to be in the dead zone. If the "bears" manage to return quotations to the limits of the long-term downward channel, the chances for the realization of the pattern "Shark" will increase.

USD / JPY, the daily chart

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for August 6. The currency pair is ready for a long decline

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on Friday, the currency pair EUR / USD lost another 20 percentage points and continues to build the assumed first wave as part of the future wave 5 of the bearish trend section. The minimum wave d, 4, which indirectly indicates the readiness of the pair to further decline. If the current wave counting is correct, then the rollbacks of quotations from the minimum reached can be used to open new sales. An unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.1507 mark may lead to the construction of a corrective ascending wave.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1507 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.1444 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1834 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

1.1957 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The correction wave 4 is supposedly completed. So, now I recommend selling the pair with targets located near the calculated marks of 1.1507 and 1.1444, which equates to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci, within wave 1, 5. Now, the wave 1 looks like it is quite difficult in its internal wave structure and can take an even more complicated look.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for August 6. British pound is preparing to break through July 19 low

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Analysis of wave counting:

In the course of trading on August 3, the GBP / USD currency pair lost a few more points and came close to the minimum of the expected wave of 5, 3, a. A successful attempt to break this mark will indicate the readiness of the tool for further reduction and, accordingly, the complication of the descending section of the trend and the entire wave 3. When performing this variant with a breakthrough, all wave counting will require supplementation, and already now, one can say that the probability of execution of this option is quite high. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the mark of 1.2962 may lead to the withdrawal of quotations from the reached lows, and wave counting will not clear up in any way.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3301 - 161.8% of Fibonacci (the oldest Fibonacci grid)

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2962 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

1.2809 - 261.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair remains within the framework of the construction of a downward trend section, bounded by a downward corridor. Thus, the decline may continue with targets near the level of 1.2962, which is equivalent to 200.0% of Fibonacci. A successful attempt to break this mark will lead to a further decline with targets of 1.2809 and 1.2650. In this case, I recommend that you continue to sell the pair with these goals.

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Demand for the US dollar will continue

The euro rose against the US dollar after the release of a weak report on the labor market and foreign trade, but then investors quickly recorded profits, which led to the continuation of a downward trend in risky assets amid expectations of an increase in interest rates in the US.

A good report on retail sales in the euro area did not support the euro on Friday in the morning. According to the data, retail sales in the euro area in June this year, compared with May, increased by 0.3%, compared with June, compared with June, the increase was 1.2%.

The increase in retail sales occurred despite the growth in energy prices, which indicates the recovery of the euro area economy in the second quarter of this year. Economists predicted that in comparison with May retail sales will grow by 0.4%.

A good report on retail sales was offset by weak data from the research company IHS Markit, which confirmed that the composite index of supply managers of the eurozone in July 2018 dropped to 54.3 points from 54.9 points in June.

All the market's attention in the second half of the day was focused on the report on the rate of hiring in the US, which disappointed investors, despite the drop in the unemployment rate, which indicates the growth of the labor market.

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of jobs outside agriculture increased by 157,000 in July this year, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.9% against 4.0% a month earlier.

Data for June were revised. According to the report, in June the number of jobs increased by 248,000. Economists projected job growth of 190,000 and unemployment at 3.9% in July. The growth of average hourly earnings by 2.7% compared with July 2017 will also have a positive impact on the pace of economic growth in the future.

A weak report on the growth of the US foreign trade deficit, despite all the measures taken by the administration of the White House, also did not appeal to investors. A sharp increase in imports and a decrease in exports adversely affected the main indicator.

According to the US Department of Commerce, the deficit in trade in goods and services in June this year increased by 7.3% compared to the previous month and amounted to 46.35 billion US dollars. Exports fell by 0.7%, while imports increased by 0.7%. Economists predicted that the deficit would increase to 46.6 billion dollars.

The index of supply managers PMI for the service sector in July 2018 decreased to 56.0 points, against 56.5 in June. Such data was provided by IHS Markit. Let me remind you that the value above 50 points indicates an increase in activity.

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GBP / USD. 6th of August. The trading system "Regression channels". The British pound continues to fall down with pleasure

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: direction - down.

Moving average (20, smoothed) - down.

CCI: -134.3233

The GBP / USD currency pair continued its downward movement on August 3 at a steady pace, no matter what. Macroeconomic statistics from the States had a very indirect effect on the course of trading, and new information on the escalation of the conflict between America and China only spurred traders to new purchases of the dollar, although on Friday evening it would be much more logical to fix profit on short positions. Today, August 6, the calendar of macroeconomic events is absolutely empty. Thus, from a technical point of view, correction is still very likely, especially given the strong overbought of the CCI indicator, which has not been worked out. However, after the meetings of the Fed and the Bank of England, traders have already moved to the new massive purchases of the US dollar, and now it will be necessary to try hard to break this new downward trend. As before, the correction can be determined by turning the indicator Heikin Ashi up. At the moment, not a single purple bar has been formed.

Nearest support levels:

S1 = 1.2939

S2 = 1.2878

S3 - 1.2817

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 1.3000

R2 = 1.3062

R3 = 1.3123

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD continues to move down. Thus, now it is recommended to maintain a sell order or to increase it with the target of 1.2939. The signal to the manual closing of positions will be the color of 1-2 bars indicator Heikin Ashi in purple.

Long positions are recommended to be considered in case traders overcome the moving average line. In this case, the bulls will have a new opportunity to form a short-term uptrend, although now there is not much chance of that.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The junior channel is linear-violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

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AUD / USD. Preparing for the RBA meeting

The Australian dollar is preparing for two events that will determine the vector of its further movement. Tomorrow, the Reserve Bank of Australia will have a meeting, and on Friday, the quarterly report of the Central Bank will be published. And although traders do not expect any decisive action from the regulator in the near future, the general tone of rhetoric will allow the "Aussie" to choose a vector of a further movement against the background of a contradictory fundamental picture.

In general, the weekly chart of the pair AUD / USD says that the pair was stuck in the flat since mid-June. Trading in a relatively wide price range, AUD / USD actually stays in the same place, trading at the border of 73rd and 74th figures. The contradictory nature of the fundamental factors does not allow the bulls or bears of the pair to claim their rights to the fullest, even on the monthly chart, the downtrend has come to naught. All in anticipation of a strong and unequivocal news pulse, which will point the way of the AUD / USD, at least in the medium term.

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The previous news background was of a heterogeneous nature. For example, the labor market, on the one hand, showed the maximum increase in the level of employment this year, but, on the other hand, it showed an increase in the supply of labor. The vacancy rate jumped by almost 25% to 240 thousand. This state of affairs suggests that salaries will grow at a slower pace, slowing the dynamics of inflation.

By the way, the latest data on inflation also disappointed the market. In the second quarter, the consumer price index remained at the level of the first quarter (0.4%), and in annual terms increased to 2.1%. And although the dynamics, in general, are positive, experts expected more pronounced growth. Core inflation (the main indicator of inflation that is being monitored by the RBA) remained at the level of the first quarter (1.9% y / y and 0.5% q / q). This result turned out to be lower than the forecast values, supplementing the so-so "unhappy" picture.

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Thus, the macroeconomic statistics are not on the side of the Australian dollar. Core inflation is still far from the RBA's target range, while weak growth in wages is hindered by inflationary growth in the country. The next week (August 15) will publish the labor cost index (WPI), which is likely to confirm this trend but the RBA meeting will take place before this release, so regulators will have to deal with previously published figures.

Now, a few words about positive trends. Strange as it may seem, the Australian recently "keeps afloat" thanks to the commodity market, which is gradually resuming its growth, despite the US-China trade conflict. Several factors contribute to this state of affairs. In particular, the demand for iron ore warms up the construction market in China, which demonstrates an unprecedented activity. After a recession almost to the 60th mark, now a ton of iron ore is traded in the area of 68 dollars. And although experts warn that the construction market is "overheated" and will soon be followed by its "cooling", at the moment the demand remains at a high level.

And steel also becomes more expensive. But in this case, because of the possible tightening of environmental legislation in China. In the market, there were rumors that the authorities of the People's Republic of China could significantly limit the permissions for steel smelting in the near winter to reduce air pollution. According to the Chinese press, Beijing intends to reduce steel production in the country's six largest metropolitan areas by half, and in two dozen industrial centers by 30%. For comparison, last year China cut production only in four cities of the country. Against this background, the demand for steel has increased, and the cost per ton has risen to a five-year high.

As you can see, the fundamental background for AUD / USD is not unambiguous. Also, we must not forget that the trade war between the US and China is still gaining momentum. The White House plans to impose higher duties (25% instead of the previously planned 10%) on Chinese goods, with a total value of $ 200 billion. In turn, the Ministry of Finance of China said that in that case, it would impose duties with differentiated rates on American goods worth 60 billion a year. On Friday it also became known that China can introduce 25 percent duties on the import of liquefied natural gas from the United States. All this testifies to the further escalation of the trade conflict between the countries.

Against the background of such an ambiguous fundamental picture, the meeting of the RBA and the quarterly report of the regulator are of great importance for traders. Most likely, the regulator will again take an extremely cautious position, noting certain positive moments. The phrase that "the next step of the Central Bank will be the rate increase rather than its reduction" is unlikely to cause emotion among market participants. The market does not expect the RBA to raise rates before the second half of 2019, so this rhetoric, in fact, does not say anything. But if the regulator focuses attention on the weak growth of inflation, the level of wages and the risks of the US-China trade war, the Australian dollar will be under considerable pressure. In this case, the pair AUD / USD can descend to the bottom of the 73rd figure, and even test the area of the 72nd figure, if the RBA rhetoric turns out to be softer than expected.

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Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences on August 6. The unrestrained fall of the euro continues

4h

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart executed the fixation under the correction level of 76.4% to 1.1575 and continues the fall process towards the next corrective level of 100.0% to 1.1508. Brewing divergences on August 6 are not observed in any indicator. The consolidation of the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 76.4% can be interpreted as a turn in favor of the European currency and expect some growth in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.1616.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from June 21, 2018, and July 9, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair quotes made a return to the corrective level of 100.0% - 1.1553. The pair's exit from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to count on a turn in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789. There are no maturing divergences today. Fixing the quotes below the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances of further falling towards the next corrective level of 127.2% - 1.1285.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair will be possible with the target of 1,1616 and the Stop Loss level under the correction level of 76.4% if there is a close above the Fibo level of 1.1575.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can now be carried out with the aim of 1,1508, as the closing was completed under the correction level of 76.4%, with the Stop Loss order above 1.1575.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences as of August 6. There are no divergences, the pound continues to fall after the euro

4h

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The quotes of the currency pair GBP / USD on the 4-hour chart completed the closing at the corrective level of 200.0% - 1.3047 and continue the process of falling towards the next correction level of 261.8% - 1.2638. Brewing divergences on August 6 cannot be seen in any indicator. Fixing the quotes above the level of Fibo 200.0% will work in favor of the British pound and will allow for some growth of the pair in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% - 1.3301.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from March 1, 2018, and April 17, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair retreated from the correction level of 76.4% to 1.3018 and resumed the drop to the corrective level of 100.0% to 1.2958. On August 6, there are no indicators of brewing divergences. Quit the quotes of the pair from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow counting on a turn in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.3018. The consolidation of the pair's rate under the Fibo level of 100.0% will work in favor of a further drop in quotations towards the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.2889.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from July 19, 2018, and July 26, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out for the purpose of 1,3018 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 100.0% if the Fibo level breaks off at 1.2958 (hourly chart).

The GBP / USD pair can now be traded with a target of 1,2958 and a Stop Loss order above the correction level of 76.4% since there has been a retreat from the Fibo level of 1.3018.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for August 6, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains earlier which lead the price towards 1.15 support area from where certain bullish intervention is expected in the process. After the mixed NFP report, USD did get some space against the EURO but it does not define a strong trend to follow in the coming days.

Today EURO German Factory Orders report was published with a negative value of -4.0% from the previous value of 2.6% which was expected to be at -0.3% but Sentix Investor Confidence was increased to 14.7 from the previous figure of 12.1 which was expected to be at 12.8.

On the other hand, today there is no USD economic report or event to impact the USD gains in the process but this week on Thursday, PPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3% and on Friday CPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%.

As of the current scenario, EUR has been quite mixed with the recent economic reports which lead USD to continue its momentum even today despite any news. Though a certain number of economic reports are yet to be published on both currencies of the pair, EUR is looking quite weak against USD in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently heading towards 1.15 support area quite impulsively from where certain bullish intervention is expected in this pair. As the price bounces off the 1.15 support area, the bullish pressure is expected to push the price higher towards 1.17 again before continuing with the bearish trend in the future. As the price remains below 1.17 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 1.15

RESISTANCE: 1.1750

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE and NON-VOLATILE

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 6, 2018

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Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed for a bearish breakout of the depicted consolidation range (0.7170 and 0.7350). Target levels have been achieved around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears. That's why bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for a valid SELL entry.

The quick bearish decline took place towards 0.6800 where a false bearish breakdown occurred.

This allowed temporary bearish movement to occur towards 0.6680. However, the pair failed to maintain enough bearish momentum.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 again.

This was followed by a recent bullish reversal pattern (123 pattern) which enhances the bullish side of the market. Recent signs of bullish weakness were manifested on the chart.

The bulls are failing to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6820 indicating evident signs of bullish weakness.

Bullish fixation above 0.6820 is needed to allow further bullish advancement towards 0.6900 and 0.6980. Otherwise, further bearish decline should be expected towards 0.6680.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 6, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Shortly after, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1990.

This was followed by a bearish breakdown below the price zone of 1.1850-1.1750. This price zone has been standing as a significant Supply zone since June 2018.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent demand zone where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.

On July 10, signs of bearish rejection were manifested around 1.1750. That's why a bearish movement was expected to occur towards 1.1650.

Lack of enough bearish momentum allowed another bullish pullback to occur again towards 1.1750 (the lower limit of the depicted supply zone) where another episode of bearish pressure was initiated last week.

That's why, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the consolidation range of 1.1750-1.1520 until breakout occurs in either direction.

Price action should be watched around the current price levels (the lower limit of the mentioned consolidation range) for bullish rejection or a bearish breakout below 1.1520.

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GBP/USD analysis for August 06, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2926. Anyway, according to the H1 time frame, I found that price got little more room for the downside since the potential area of support is awaiting around the price of 1.2860. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities if you see a successful rejection from the support zone. The upward target will be set at the price of 1.3030.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3037

R2: 1.3073

R3: 1.3104

Support levels:

S1: 1.2970

S2: 1.2939

S3: 1.2903

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Currency markets will continue to consolidate

In the past week, there was quite a lot of events that had an impact on foreign exchange markets. To name a few, these include the meeting of the Fed, and the Bank of England on monetary policy, the publication of a large package of statistics of production indicators in China, Germany, the euro area, the United Kingdom and the United States, and of course, the number of new jobs and employment in the US. However, despite these events, as well as new threats of the White House against China, the currency market continued to consolidate in the so-called "outset", and there are a number of important reasons for this.

The first and most important is to contain the dollar's further growth due to investors fearing that the aggressive foreign economic policy of the US can have a negative impact on the country's economic growth. The negative attitude of Donald Trump in raising rates in the future, taking into account the nature of the American president, pour into a pause, which will negatively affect the dollar. On the other hand, the markets hope that the trade war between the European Union and the US, if not cease, but be leveled out to a greater extent by reaching compromises. This holds back the further decline of the euro and causes investors to hope that this could cause an earlier start to the ECB's interest rate hike, for example, as early as in the spring of 2019. Recall that at the moment it is considered.

Again in the market, there is a speculation that after the ECB will go this way and other major world central banks as well. Even the Bank of England can decide on the next earlier rate hike, despite the fact that following the results of the meeting of the British regulator last week and the speech at the press conference of its head, Mark Carney. it was made clear that one should not wait for another growth rates this year.

Given the realities that exist in the world of politics, as well as, in the economies of countries whose currencies are traded on the large Forex against the US dollar. We believe that the overall lateral trend in the currency markets will continue.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading lower than the 1.1550 level. If the data from the eurozone is not worse than expected, the pair can recover to 1.1625 given the technical factors.

The GBP/USD pair is trading above the level of 1.2980. A similar picture was observed in this pair. Fixing profit on the US dollar can lead to its local growth to 1.3080.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis on EUR/USD for August 6, 2018

We have been bearish EUR/USD as long as price stayed below 1.1730 and warned bulls every time we saw a rejection at that level. Now price has broken below the triangle pattern providing another bearish signal. Next support is at 1.15. Breaking below it will open the way for 100-200 pips lower.

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Red lines - triangle pattern (broken downwards)

Blue line - horizontal support at 1.15

The EUR/USD has not only broken below the triangle pattern, it also got rejected at the cloud resistance. We warned on time that the rejection at the cloud resistance at 1.1730 area was an important bearish sign. Next support is at 1.15. A break below this level will open the way for a move towards 1.12-1.13. Key resistance is now at 1.1660-1.1640 area. Bulls will need to break above this level for a first bullish sign.

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Trading plan for the European session of EUR / USD pair on August 6

To open long positions for EUR / USD pair, you need:

It is best to consider long positions of the euro after returning and consolidating above the resistance level 1.1564, which opens a direct road to a bigger area around 1.1597, where fixing profits are recommended today. If the EUR / USD continues to decline in the morning, long positions can be expected to rebound from 1.1529 or from a larger area at 1.1482.

To open short positions for EUR / USD pair, you need:

As long as the trade is below 1.1564, the pressure on the euro will continue, and the formation of a false breakout in the morning at this level will be an additional signal to the sales to reduce and consolidate below 1.1529 support, which opens access to a new low in area of 1.1482, where fixing profits are recommended. If the euro rises in the first half of the day above 1.1564, you can sell for a rebound from resistance 1.1597.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Forecast for AUD / USD pair as of August 6, 2018

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar shows strong persistence before the pressure of the general trend of the market. On Friday, the "Australian" added 37 points against the strengthening of the US dollar index by 0.03%. However, also at this time, the growth was stopped by the balance indicator line (red).

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On the four-hour chart, the price also failed to cope with the resistance of the red balance sheet line, and it is currently returning to the blue trend line. The Oscillator Marlin crossed the border with the zone of negative numbers. The convergence of the price and the oscillator was not formed. Tomorrow, the RBA will also announce the decision on the interest rate and no change is expected. Probably, the "Australian" will continue to decline under the influence of external market factors with the target of 0.7320.

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Technical analysis of gold for August 6, 2018

Gold price remains inside the downward sloping wedge pattern. The trend remains bearish. Gold price is making lower lows and lower highs. The RSI continues to provide bullish divergence warnings. The key short-term reversal level has now been lowered.

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Black lines - wedge pattern

Red line - RSI bullish divergence

Blue line- RSI resistance

As long as the price is below $1,225 and the RSI is below the blue trend line resistance, the trend will remain bearish. For the short-term trend to change to bullish we need to see both levels to be broken upwards. The next support in gold price is at $1,190-$1,180. The price behavior justifies a strong bounce at least towards $1,265-75 area.

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Trading plan for the European session on August 6 GBP/USD

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

Opening long positions on the pound is advised only after the breakdown and consolidation above resistance 1.3119, which will lead to the upward trend formation in the areas of 1.3041 and 1.3079, where it is recommended to fix profits. In case of a further decline in the pound in the morning, you can go back to buying after a false breakout in the 1.2959 area or a rebound from 1.2886.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

While the trade is below 1.3002, the pressure on the pound will be maintained and the formation of a false breakdown on this range will be a good signal to further sell the GBP/USD with potential renewal of the low at 1.2959, where it is recommended to fix profits. In case of growth in the first half of the day above 1.3002, you can sell the pound for a rebound from 1.3041.

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Indicators Description:

  • MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD as of August 6, 2018

EUR/USD

On Friday, Europe's economic indicators came out worse than expected, and the US mixed, but the main focus of the market on employment showed an increase in the indices and the dollar strengthened against major currencies. Services PMI of the eurozone in the final assessment for July was lowered from 54.4 to 54.2. Industrial production in Italy in June added more than the forecast (0.5% against 0.4%), but retail sales fell by -0.2%, with the expectation of growth of 0.1%, which eventually lowered retail sales throughout the entire euro area – an increase of 0.3% against the forecast of 0.4%.

In the US, the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector in July increased by 157 thousand against the average expectation of 191 thousand, but over the previous two months the indicator was revised for an increase of 59 thousand. As a result, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.0% to 3.9%. A good signal was the increase in hourly wages by 0.3% against the background of employment growth, the expectation was 0.2%. The employment structure showed a growth in quality: with a reduction in employment in the public sector by 13 thousand, in the manufacturing industry 37 thousand jobs were added.

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On Friday, the price closed under the trend line in the daytime, this morning the pressure on the support does not weaken, which is helped by the consolidation of the price under the level of 1.1574. We expect the euro to decline to a more pronounced level of 1.1508. The industrial orders in Germany for June, coming out today, can help the price, by -0.3% against the 2.6% growth a month ago.

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A small sign of a possible correction is the convergence of the price with the Marlin oscillator on the four-hour chart, but the convergence is small in size, about 8 bars, so it is unlikely that the price will be able to overcome 1.1611, where the balance indicator lines on both scales aspire.

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Forecast for GBP/USD as of August 6, 2018

GBP / USD

On Friday, the US dollar is under pressure and British PMI services had declined from 55.1 to 53.5 in July, while the pound sterling also reduced by 16 points. The daytime time frame showed that the price was formally fixed under the trend line (the depth of the candle is small) and now, all the conditions for further reduction to next support line of 1.2790 have been reached. The Marlin Oscillator is declining.

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There is no further movement shown in the 4-hour chart. The price goes down under two indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator with a rising line shows a reduction which is the standard behavior after the previous strong movement.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of August 6

Dear colleagues.

For the EUR / USD pair, the continuation of the movement downwards following the breakdown of 1.1558 is considered as an upward movement correction. For the GBP / USD pair, we follow the development of the downward cycle from July 26. The continuation of the downward movement after the breakdown of 1.3000. For the USD / CHF pair, we follow the upward structure of July 31. The level of 0.9917 is the key support. For the USD / JPY pair, we follow the development of the downward structure from August 1. For the EUR / JPY pair, we follow the downward structure from July 31. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 128.36. For the GBP / JPY pair, the downward structure of August 1 is considered as a medium-term structure.

Forecast for August 6:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

For the EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1649, 1.1622, 1.1602, 1.1575, 1.1560 and 1.1528. Here, we follow the downward cycle of July 31. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after passing the price of the noise range of 1.1575-1.1560. In this case, the target is 1.1528. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.1602 - 1.1622. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1649.

The main trend is the downward cycle from July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1602 Take profit: 1.1620

Buy 1.1625 Take profit: 1.1647

Sell: 1.1560 Take profit: 1.1530

Sell: Take profit:

For the GBP / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 1.3094, 1.3057, 1.3034, 1.3001, 1.2950, 1.2904 and 1.2875. Here, we follow the downward structure of July 26. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3000. In this case, the target is 1.2950. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 1.2875. After reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the area of 1.2904 - 1.2875, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.3035 - 1.3057. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3094.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3035 Take profit: 1.3055

Buy: 1.3060 Take profit: 1.3092

Sell: 1.3000 Take profit: 1.2960

Sell: 1.2948 Take profit: 1.2905

For the of USD / CHF pair, the key levels in the scale of H1 are: 1.0043, 1.0027, 1.0003, 0.9985, 0.9975, 0.9947, 0.9935 and 0.9917. Here, we follow the upward movement of July 31. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after passing through the noise range of 0.9975 - 0.9985. In this case, the target is 1.0003. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown at 1.0005 will allow us to count on the movement towards the potential target of 1.0043. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the area of 1.0027 - 1.0043, as well as a pullback downwards.

Consolidated traffic is possible in the area of 0.9947 - 0.9935. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9917. This level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9985 Take profit: 1.0000

Buy: 1.0005 Take profit: 1.0026

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 0.9933 Take profit: 0.9920

For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 112.14, 111.76, 111.54, 111.09, 110.79, 110.58 and 110.14. Here, we follow the downward structure of August 1. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 111.09. In this case, the target is 110.79. In the area of 110.79 - 110.58 is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 110.14. The movement towards this level is expected after the breakdown of 110.55.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 111.54 - 111.76. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an upward structure. In this case, the first potential target is 112.14.

The main trend is a downward cycle from August 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.55 Take profit: 111.74

Buy: 111.78 Take profit: 112.12

Sell: 111.07 Take profit: 111.80

Sell: 110.56 Take profit: 110.20

For the CAD / USD pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3158, 1.3131, 1.3080, 1.3052, 1.2988, 1.2945, 1.2881 and 1.2845. Here, the price is in an equilibrium state. Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2988 - 1.2945. We consider the level of 1.2881 to be a potential value for the downward trend. After reaching this level, consolidation is possible and also a rollback to the top. At the moment, the price is in the final in the 8th time zone for the downward structure from July 20.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.3052 - 1.3080. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3131. The range of 1.3131 - 1.3158 is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the equilibrium state, we expect a withdrawal to the top.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 1.3085 Take profit: 1.3130

Sell: 1.2985 Take profit: 1.2945

Sell: 1.2942 Take profit: 1.2884

For the AUD / USD pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7592, 0.7551, 0.7522, 0.7477, 0.7434, 0.7410, 0.7381, 0.7356 and 0.7324. Here, the situation has entered the equilibrium state. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7434. In this case, the first target is 0.7477. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of 0.7477 will allow us to count on the movement towards 0.7522. In the area of 0.7522 - 0.7551 is short-term upward movement, as well as the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top is the level of 0.7592. After reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Consolidated traffic is possible in the area of 0.7381 - 0.7356. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of a downward structure. Here, the first target is 0.7324.

The main trend is the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7436 Take profit: 0.7475

Buy: 0.7480 Take profit: 0.7520

Sell: 0.7378 Take profit: 0.7358

Sell: 0.7354 Take profit: 0.7326

For the of EUR / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 129.83, 129.62, 129.26, 128.96, 128.60, 128.38, 127.92 and 127.56. Here, we follow the downward cycle of July 31. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after passing through the noise range of 128.60 - 128.38. In this case, the target is 127.92. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 127.56. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 128.96 - 129.26. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 129.62. The range of 129.62 - 129.83 is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 128.98 Take profit: 129.20

Buy: 129.30 Take profit: 129.60

Sell: 128.36 Take profit: 127.95

Sell: 127.88 Take profit: 127.58

For the GBP / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 146.07, 145.47, 145.12, 144.48, 144.13, 143.33 and 142.77. Here, the downward structure of August 1 was considered as a large initial condition. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after passing through the noise range of 144.48 - 144.13. In this case, the target is 143.33. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 142.77. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 145.12 145.47. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 146.07. This level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is downward from August 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 145.12 Take profit: 145.45

Buy: 145.60 Take profit: 146.00

Sell: 144.10 Take profit: 143.40

Sell: 143.30 Take profit: 142.80

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Fractal analysis: GOLD on August 6

Forecast for August 6:

Analytical review on the H1 scale:

According to Gold, the major key levels on the H1 scale are: 1238.54, 1233.17, 1229.60, 1224.24, 1220.02, 1214.12, 1211.08 and 1205.42. Here, we observe the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of August 3. The upward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of 1220.02, with the target at 1224.24 near the consolidation level. The breakdown of 1224.24 should be accompanied by a determined upward movement to the 1229.60 level, in the corridor 1229.6 - 1233.17 price consolidation. The potential value for the top is the 1238.54 level, where we expect a downward pullback.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 1214.12 - 1211.08, while the breakdown of the last value will have to develop the downward movement with the target at 1205.50.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle of August 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1220.00 Take profit: 1224.00

Buy: 1224.80 Take profit: 1229.60

Sell: 1214.00 Take profit: 1211.30

Sell: 1210.50 Take profit: 1206.00

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 06/08/2018

Canaan Creative released the world's first TV for Bitcoin mining - AvalonMiner Inside. The second largest mining equipment manufacturer in the world thus introduces innovation to its product line, according to the South China Morning Post.

The TV can process 2.8 trillion hares per second at 100 W / T, compared to the most powerful mining platform processing 11 trillion hash per second. This power seems quite decent considering that you can not watch TV on a typical mining platform.

Canaan says that the TV is powered by artificial intelligence and has voice control. It will also apparently calculate the profitability of Bitcoin extraction in real time."The digital currency can be used to buy entertainment content or physical gifts through the Canaan platform" - we read in the message.

Canaan TV can be reportedly controlled using voice commands and is able to calculate the profitability of cryptocurrency extraction in real time.

The AvalonMiner is a 43-inch model with a 4K resolution. His price for this moment has not yet been given. Canaan plans to expand its market base, using more household appliances to extract.

The creativity of the cryptocurrency miners has no limits.

Let's now take a look at Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has dropped to the level of $6,849, which is just slightly above the important invalidation level for the whole impulsive scenario that is located at $6,782. The current Pin Bar formation might give the bulls some hope the downtrend is completed, but any spike below the mentioned level would mean the downtrend continuation in fact. Moreover, the price is trading below the weekly pivot at the level of $7,283 and below the local technical resistance at the level of $7,176. The current bias is still poised to the downside.

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Daily Technical Analysis Video, 6th August 2018

Daily Technical Analysis Video, 6th August 2018

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 3, 2018

EUR/NZD failed to break clearly above resistance at 1.7205 once again, which is disappointing. As long as support at 1.7116 is able to protect the downside we will remain slightly bullish, but the failure to break clearly above resistance the 1.7205 - 1.7224 zone does raise the possibility of the alternate count, that a final dip closer to 1.7066 will be needed before wave ii/ finally completes and wave iii/ will be ready to take over.

We will need a clear break above resistance at 1.7224 to confirm that wave iii/ is developing.

R3: 1.7224

R2: 1.7180

S1: 1.7155

Pivot: 1.7137

S1: 1.7117

S2: 1.7094

S3: 1.7066

Trading recommendation:

We remain long EUR at 1.7226 with our stop placed at 1.7110. If you are not long EUR yet, then wait for a clear break above 1.7224 before committing.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 6, 2018

EUR/JPY has moved just below the lower boundary at 128.66 (the low has been seen at 158.49). This does fulfill all requirements for our slightly preferred scenario, meaning that a low should be in place for wave ii/ and a new impulsive rally in wave iii/ should be ready to develop. Wave iii/ will ideally make it to 135.74 and possibly even higher.

That said, we need to remember that prices need to prove themselves for a strong rally above 129.62. The possible alternate scenario still remains possible. Under this count, wave ii still is developing as an expanded flat correction. If this count is correct, then we should expect resistance near 129.62 will cap the upside for a final decline towards 126.01 to complete wave ii before wave iii will be ready to take over.

R3: 129.62

R2: 129.18

R1: 129.00

Pivot: 128.77

S1: 128.50

S2: 128.11

S3: 127.69

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 128.50 was hit for a 45 pips loss. We will re-buy EUR here at 128.72 and place our stop at 128.45.

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EUR/JPY Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

EUR/JPY is approaching its support at 128.56 (100%, 100% Fibonacci extension, 50% & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where it is expected to bounce up to its resistance at 130.20 (50% & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 1.9% where a corresponding bounce is expected.

EUR/JPY is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 128.56. Stop loss 127.77. Take profit at 130.20.

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CAD/CHF Testing Resistance, Prepare For Reversal!

CAD/CHF is testing its resistance at 0.7656 (100% Fibonacci extension x2, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where a reversal to its support at 0.7591 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) is expected.

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) has reversed off its resistance at 95% where a corresponding drop is expected.

CAD/CHF is testing its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 0.7656. Stop loss at 0.7689. Take profit at 0.7591.

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#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com