Technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair for the week of June 15 to 20

The EUR/USD pair failed to attempt to break up once again the resistance line 1.1375 (red bold line) last week and after that, the price declined. Moving down, the price tested the pullback level of 23.6% - 1.1236 (red dashed line). The price may continue to decline for the coming week.

Trend analysis.

This week, the price from the level of 1.1254 (closing of the last weekly candle) can continue to decline with the first target of 1.1121 - pullback level of 38.2% (red dashed line). From which, two possible scenarios can be considered.

  • The price will continue to decline to the next lower target of 1.1028 - a pullback level of 50.0% (red dashed line), if the level of 1.1121 is broken down.
  • It is likely that the price will start to increase with the target of 1.1362 - the resistance line (red bold line) with the rebound from the level of 1.1121.

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Fig. 1 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- monthly chart - up.

The conclusion of a comprehensive analysis is a downward movement.

The overall result of calculating the candle of the EUR/USD currency pair according to the weekly chart: the price of the week is likely to have a downward trend with the absence of an upper shadow for the weekly black candlestick (Monday - down) and the presence of a second lower shadow (Friday - up).

The first lower target of 1.1121 is the pullback level of 38.2% (red dashed line).

There are two possible scenarios.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for June 15, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the downward trend may continue from the level of 1.2540 (closing of the Friday afternoon candle) with the target at the support line 1.2403 (red bold line). If this line is reached, an upward pullback is possible with the target of 1.2518 - a 61.8% pullback level (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may move downward with the target at the support line 1.2403 (red bold line). If this line is reached, an upward pullback is possible with the target of 1.2518 - a 61.8% pullback level (blue dashed line).

An unlikely scenario: when moving down, after reaching the level of 1.2403 - the support line (red bold line), continued movement down to the rollback level of 61.8% (red dashed line).

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Positivity suddenly ended even before realizing it; Overview of EUR and GBP

The CFTC report released on Friday showed a steady increase in positivity. All commodity currencies, without exception, significantly reduced their net short positions, and on the contrary, the franc and yen lost significant volumes in long positions. The long position on gold and the total position on the dollar also declined, which can be regarded as the intention of the players to follow the current dominant idea that the world economy is starting to recover after the coronavirus pandemic.

At the same time, it should be noted that the data reflected in the CFTC report were collected before June 9, while Friday and Monday's opening look very negative. Japanese Nikkei is losing more than 2.5% as of 5:00 Universal time, and stock exchanges in China, Australia, and New Zealand are trading in the red zone. A strong growth in demand for government bonds was noted again, and oil lost more than 10% of recent highs overnight after several weeks of seemingly steady growth .

Formally, the markets started to decline after the head of the Fed, Powell, evaded the question of whether the stock market in the US is overvalued, but it is probably not just about the position of Powell or the Fed as a whole. The macroeconomic reports of recent weeks in most countries were better than expected, but this positivity is still clearly not enough. Obviously, there are other, more compelling reasons for the new wave of panic. For example, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics warns of huge discrepancies in the latest employment report, and it is likely that 4.7 million people were classified as employed while they are still virtually unemployed. This discrepancy completely destroys all the positivity from the report.

The World Bank warns that more than 90% of the countries in the world are currently in a state of recession, which is the highest in history.

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It turns out that the markets, assessing the deepest recession, flooded with large-scale printing of new money, interpret it as bullish events. Such a discrepancy cannot, of course, cannot be delayed for a long time. The week opened negatively, and everything indicates that risk aversion will receive a new impulse in the coming days. There is essentially nothing to support the positivity, and so, protective assets will be in favor again.

EUR/USD

After a short period of slowdown, the net long position on the Euro has grown steadily again and is 13.558 billion as of the time of the CFTC report formation. No other currency has come close to the euro levels, which makes the European currency a favorite of the currency market.

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Optimism regarding the euro is supported by rising expectations for a new-generation EU debt agreement that could significantly support business activity in the eurozone.

The EUR/USD corrected after a prolonged 3-week growth, but the correction promises to be shallow. The key support is 1.1150, where a local bottom can be formed and growth can resume.

GBP/USD

The data on the state of the UK economy published on Friday turned out to be quite worse than expected - industrial production declined in April by more than 20%, and an estimate of GDP growth from NIESR in May at -17.6% does not give reason to expect a resumption of growth in the coming month.

The pound reduced its short position by 914 million, which is an almost quite strong reduction, which allowed to stop the decline in the estimated fair price.

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Britain remains split in two over Brexit's prospects and related local issues. To ask for an extension by the end of June, or to leave the EU as soon as possible – this is a dilemma that puts the strongest pressure on investors. The pound will continue to be under pressure, and there is a high probability of going below the nearest support zone of 1.2430/50. If this happens, then from a technical point of view, the pound will get a new negative impulse, and the goal will shift to the zone of 1.2230/50.

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Technical analysis of the GBP/USD pair for the week of June 15 to 20

The GBP/USD pair moved up and tested the historical resistance level of 1.2781 (yellow dashed line) last week which was followed by a price decline. In turn, it tested the pullback level of 38.2% - 1.2528 (red dashed line) while moving down the market. Most likely, the price may continue to decline this week.

Trend analysis.

This week, the price from the level of 1.2535 (closing of the last weekly candle) will decline with the goal of reaching a pullback level of 50%, 1.2441 (red dashed line). It is possible to break down this line with the following target of 1.2354 (red dashed line). An upward movement is possible with the target of 1.2511 - 21 average EMA (black thin line) from this level.

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Fig. 1 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- monthly chart - up.

The conclusion of a comprehensive analysis is a downward movement.

The overall result of calculating the candle of the GBP/USD currency pair according to the weekly chart: the price of the week will most likely have a downward trend with the absence of the first upper shadow of the weekly black candlestick (Monday - down) and the presence of the second lower shadow (Friday - up).

The first upper goal is to reach the pullback level of 50% - 1.2441 (red dashed line). It is possible to break down this line with the following target of 1.2354 (red dashed line). From this level, growth is possible with the target of 1.2511 - 21 average EMA (black thin line).

An unlikely, but possible scenario: the price will increase with the target of the upper fractal 1.2811 (red dashed line) from a pullback level of 50% - 1.2439 (red dashed line).

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GBP/USD price movement, June 15, 2020

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On 4 hour chart, we can see that the GBP/USD pair may rise before resuming the downside movement again. After this pair touched the lower line from the down slope pitchfork, it is likely to try to test the middle line pitchfork above the current price and rise to the 1.2546 level as the fisrt target and 1.2624 as the second one. As long as the cable does not fall bellow the 1.2473 level, the pair may well reach both targets.

(Disclaimer)

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 15 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Euro buyers flee from a sinking ship.

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

We received just a few excellent signals to sell the euro last Friday, which, judging by the schedule, can start a rather deep fall in the second half of this month. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see a false breakout, which was formed at 1.1325 in the first half of the day, after the release of the report on the volume of industrial production in the eurozone. This false breakout, which I mentioned in my forecast, was a signal to open short positions in euros. But even if you did not manage to enter the sales at the European session, a similar attempt by the bulls to return to the market was made in the afternoon and a second resistance test of 1.1325 also signaled the opening of short positions, which caused the pair to fall to a low of 1.1244 around which the main trade is now conducted. If you look at the hourly chart, you can see how the bulls are protecting the 1.1244 area and forming a false breakout on it in the morning will be a signal to open long positions, the target of which will be the resistance 1.1317, a little below which the moving average is going to limit the pair's upward potential. The bulls will also aim for the test of the high of 1.1403, where I recommend taking profits, but getting to it will not be so simple. If pressure on the euro continues, and most likely we will see the market shaking around the level of 1.1244 today, since important fundamental statistics are not published, then it is best to open long positions in EUR/USD after updating support at 1.1187, or immediately to rebound from more a large low of 1.1119, based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Bears continue to put pressure on the euro, plunging the pair more and more into a new downward correction channel. Today, the sellers' goal is to return and consolidate EUR/USD below the level of 1.1244, which will increase the pressure on the pair and lead to its downward movement to the area of lows 1.1187 and 1.1119, where I recommend taking profits. This is especially possible due to the lack of important fundamental statistics at the beginning of this week. If the bulls are more active in their actions, then with an upward correction it is best to open short positions after the resistance update of 1.1317, but I recommend selling EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only from the last week's local high in the 1.1403 area, counting on a downward correction of 30 -40 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates a further decline in the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

In case of growth, the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.1317 will act as resistance. You can open long positions after updating the lower border in the 1.1195 area.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 15, 2020

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GBP/JPY broke above resistance at 135.25 and more importantly above resistance at 135.90. It was a clear indication that a firm corrective low had been found at 133.77. In the short-term, we are looking for a break above minor resistance at 134.72 as a confirmation that the correction from 136.04 has completed and a new impulsive rally towards 137.37 and 138.67 is in motion on the way higher to 148.32.

R3: 136.04

R2: 135.41

R1: 134.75

Pivot: 134.60

S1: 134.00

S2: 133.77

S3: 133.23

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 135.35 with our stop placed at 133.70

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 15, 2020

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EUR/JPY failed to break the above short-term important resistance at 121.82. Despite that fact, we continue to believe that a bottom already has been seen at 120.23 and a new impulsive rally will be seen soon. The next resistance level at 121.82 may be tested. The pair is likely to break through this level easily and moves higher to 122.50 and 123.49 as the next minor upside targets on the way higher to 125.76.

A short-term break above minor resistance at 120.96 will indicate that the next impulsive rally is in motion and that a new test of resistance at 121.82 should be expected soon.

R3: 121.82

R2: 121.43

R1: 121.08

Pivot: 120.96

S1: 120.56

S2: 120.23

S3: 119.84

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 120.90 and we have placed our stop at 118.90 expecting to move it higher soon.

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EUR/USD testing resistance, potential reversal!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.12668

Reason for Entry: 23.6% fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance

Take Profit: 1.10978

Reason for Take Profit: 50% fibonacci retracement,horizontal swing low support

Stop Loss:1.13355

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8% fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement

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Control zones for AUD/USD on June 15, 2020

After the test of the monthly control zone in June, the AUD / USD pair formed an absorption pattern in the daily level, which helps sell positions keep a good prospect of further decline. The next target of the drop is the WCZ 1/2 0.6777-0.6768, a test of which will allow sell positions to be fixed.

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Selling positions at the current levels are not profitable. Thus, those who want to enter short positions will have to wait for a deeper correction before entering the market.

Meanwhile, an alternative scenario will develop if the fall continues from current levels, as it will hinder trading at favorable prices. Nevertheless, it will allow holding previously opened sell positions. The medium-term target for the decline is the monthly control zone in June.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by the important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for EUR/USD on 06/15/20

On Friday, a weekly control zone of 1.1240-1.1222 was reached with a decrease, which made it possible to record part of the sales opened earlier. It is necessary for the EUR/USD pair to stay below the weekly control zone 1/2 1.1313-1.1304 for further decline to continue. The next goal of the bearish movement will be the weekly control zone 1/2 1.1131-1.1122. A deeper correction may be required to continue the decline, so sales from current levels are not profitable.

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A two-day absorption pattern was formed last Thursday and Friday, which indicates that the continuation of the downward movement and a retest of the low of last week is very likely.

An alternative growth pattern will be developed if today's trading closes above the Weekly Control Zone 1/2. This will indicate the continuation of the upward movement and the abolition of the bearish impulse. The probability of implementing this pattern is 25%, which makes it auxiliary.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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GBP/AUD holding above ascending trendline support. Futher push up expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.82945

Reason for Entry: Moving average support

Take Profit: 1.84504

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high, -61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.81864

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/AUD holding above ascending trendline support. Futher push up expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.82945

Reason for Entry: Moving average support

Take Profit: 1.84504

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high, -61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.81864

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/AUD holding above ascending trendline support. Futher push up expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.82945

Reason for Entry: Moving average support

Take Profit: 1.84504

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high, -61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.81864

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/AUD holding above ascending trendline support. Futher push up expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.82945

Reason for Entry: Moving average support

Take Profit: 1.84504

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high, -61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.81864

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/AUD holding above ascending trendline support. Futher push up expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.82945

Reason for Entry: Moving average support

Take Profit: 1.84504

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high, -61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.81864

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 15, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro fell by 42 points last Friday. It did not reach the target level of 1.1200 by 13 points, we are waiting for its development in the near future and only after that a local correction in the range of 1.1200/65. A small divergence on the Marlin oscillator continues to remain in force. Overcoming the price level of 1.2000 will allow the price to fall even deeper, to the price channel line in the region of 1.1120.

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The price is developing under the indicator lines of balance and MACD on the four-hour chart, the price is kept below the level of 1.1265. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is falling within its own channel, from the lower border of which it has turned up, which indicates that the price will likely fall only in the evening.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 15, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound fell 63 points on Friday, breaking the support of the Fibonacci level of 123.6%. The pound's nearest target is the Fibonacci level of 138.2%, then 161.8%. But there is one nuance here - the signal line of the Marlin oscillator came close to the border of the bears' territory, and this border is an independent level of support and resistance, which can provoke a corrective reversal of the oscillator line and the price itself. Marlin's transition to a negative trend will occur when the price overcomes the Friday low of 1.2473.

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The price is declining without signs of a reversal (correction) on the H4 chart. These signs are more likely to appear when the price reaches the target level of 1.2424.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on June 15, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar traded in the range of 113 points on Friday, ending the day by gaining 10 points; the level of 0.6900 served as resistance to volatility, under which the price showed actual consolidation. The Marlin oscillator has moved to the lower half of its field, thereby indicating a transition to a declining trend. The aussie's nearest target is the level of 0.6680, then 0.6570, the third goal is 0.6470.

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The price and the Marlin oscillator continue to decline on the four-hour chart. We are waiting for the development of the first target level of 0.6680.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on June 15, 2020

USD/JPY

The dollar slightly strengthened against the yen last Friday thanks to the growth of stock indices - S&P 500 added 1.31%. The price went above the balance and MACD indicator lines on the daily chart, and also above the inner line of the price channel.

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Corrective price growth may continue to the control level of 108.08, which is the peak of the secondary ten-day period of April and May 19. To continue pulling down the price, it is necessary to gain a foothold under the MACD line (107.09), which coincides with the low of May 29. In this case, the decline will continue to the lower line of the price channel at 105.90.

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On the four-hour chart, the price is still above the control level of the daily chart 107.09, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is above zero - in the growing trend zone. The growth target of 108.08 is the MACD line, which coincides with the control level of the daily timeframe. But this level may not be reached, therefore, we recommend that you wait until either consolidation above it, and only then make a decision on purchases, or consolidate under it, in order to consider further sales.

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Economic calendar. Events of the upcoming week

Economic calendar June 15-21, 2020 (London time)

The article highlights the most important indicators and events of the economic calendar from the United States, the European Union and the UK, as they are most likely to affect the movement of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs.

Monday

The economic calendar Monday (June 15) does not contain important news and indicators. Nevertheless, among the statistics published on this day, one can take note of the eurozone trade balance (9:00) and the Treasury International Capital (TIC) (20:00) report from the US Treasury. The flows of TIC long-term securities can have their influence in resolving the trade deficit by the US government, therefore, in the news economic background, they are usually closely monitored by investors.

9:00 eurozone trade balance

20:00 Purchases of TIC long-term securities (US)

Tuesday

On Tuesday (June 16) in the morning we are expected to receive data from the Office for National Statistics of the UK. Among the most significant at 6:00, the following indicators will be announced, such as the number of applications for unemployment benefits, unemployment and employment changes.The results of an average salary level taking into account bonuses is also set to be published. The indicator is calculated weekly for the last three months and compared with last year for the same period, which allows you to track short-term changes in incomes of citizens. At the same time, the German Federal Statistical Office will announce data on changes in consumer prices.

At 9:00, the Center for European Economic Studies will provide a ZEW report on economic sentiment in Germany. In our turbulent times, an analysis of the financial preferences of more than three hundred German institutional investors and analysts (banks, insurance companies, largest enterprises) can have a significant impact on the mood of the foreign exchange market. The ZEW report will also be presented in the whole eurozone.

In the afternoon, we are waiting for statistics from the United States. Here in the general list you can highlight data on retail sales (12:30). Then at 16:15 the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve will report on the volume of industrial production and utilization factors of industrial capacities in the USA

06:00 Average Premium Income (UK)

06:00 Unemployment Rate (UK)

06:00 Change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits (UK)

06:00 Change in employment (UK)

06:00 Consumer Price Index (Eurozone)

9:00 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany

9:00 ZEW Economic Sentiment in the Eurozone

9:00 Salary Levels (Eurozone)

12:30 Retail Sales (USe)

13:15 Industrial output and industrial capacity factor (USe

Wednesday

On Wednesday, June 17, at 6:00, we are waiting for the next block of various economic data from the Office for National Statistics of the UK. This time, attention will be focused on changes in the purchase and selling prices of producers, as well as on various indicators with which the behavior of consumer and retail prices is characterized. Following (9:00) similar data will be announced for the eurozone.

In addition, on Wednesday at 9:30 (preliminary) an auction will be held to place 10-year federal bonds in Germany. As a result of the fact that Germany is currently the strongest EU economy, the Schuldverschreibung issue is able to exert some influence on the euro.

Also on Wednesday, it is worth paying attention to the OPEC monthly oil market report (11:00). Another important indicator will be connected with oil on this day - data on the changes that have occurred in US crude oil reserves. The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration is publishing the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held in the vaults of all US companies that can store more than 1,000 barrels. Now, during the oil wars, such information is of particular relevance.

From the remaining statistics for the United States on this day, we can distinguish items related to construction - the number of government permits for the construction of new residential buildings and changes in the volume of construction.

6:00 Consumer Price Index (UK)

6:00 Manufacturing Price Index (UK)

6:00 Retail Price Index (UK)

9:00 Consumer Price Index (Eurozone)

12:30 Building Permits (US)

12:30 Volume of construction of new houses (USA)

14:30 Crude Oil Reserves (USA)

Thursday

In the morning of June 18, attention will be directed to information from leading European banks. At 8:00, the ECB Economic Bulletin will be published. The newsletter includes economic and financial information that the Governing Council of the regulator uses to make decisions. By tradition, the June Bulletin is distinguished by a more detailed analysis of economic and financial events. At 9:30, the ECB will provide information on targeted long-term refinancing operations. After 11:00, the Bank of England will start publishing its reports and decisions - the decision on the basic interest rate, the planned volume of asset purchases, and a summary on monetary policy.

In the afternoon, the time will come for economic data from across the ocean, among which we can note especially relevant in the current period statistics on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US (12:30), it will be supplemented by an employment index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Philadelphia Fed will also provide data on production activity of about 250 leading industrial enterprises in the region

8:00 ECB Monthly Report

9:30 Target operations of long-term refinancing of the ECB

11:00 Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

11:00 Bank of England QE Total

11:00 Minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee

12:30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

12:30 Philadelphia Federal Reserve Employment Index

12:30 Number of applications for unemployment benefits

Friday

At the end of the working week, we can anticipate information from the Office for National Statistics of the UK, which at 6:00 will provide a variety of statistics on retail sales. In parallel, statistics on Germany will be released (the main one is the producer price index).

The work from the United States will complete the working week, in the stream of which we can only note the Fed representatives at 16 and 17:00.

In addition, a summit of leaders of the countries of the European Union and the Eastern Partnership (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) will be held on June 18 in a video conference format.

6:00 Retail Sales (UK)

6:00 Base Retail Index (UK)

6:00 Producer Price Index (Germany)

16:00 Speech by Fed Governor Quarles

17:00 Speech by Fed Chairman Powell

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair for June 15. COT report. Paradoxical pound continues to surprise. Bulls

GBP/USD 1H

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The pound/dollar, as well as the euro/dollar, continued its downward corrective movement on Friday, June 12. Thus, most likely, in recent weeks, traders have been getting rid of the US dollar more than buying the euro and the pound. Selling the US currency ended last Wednesday. We still cannot say for sure what were the reasons for the dollar's two-week fall, there could be a huge number of them. However, at the moment, the upward trend still persists, since the trend line (upward) remains below the price, which means that it continues to support buyers. We believe that the pound's rise has ended. If the euro's growth can still be justified logically and fundamentally, then it is still difficult to say why the pound has grown with all the problems of the British economy and Brexit. One way or another, the pound has increased and is now ready for a new long-term fall. At the same time, until the trend line is overcome, the upward movement is still the main option for the development of events.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned down on the 15-minute timeframe, so the trend reversed. All goals are defined on an hourly timeframe.

COT Report

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The latest COT report for the British pound, published on Friday, showed a strong drop in the number of open purchase contracts among professional traders. Their number decreased by almost 7,000, but there were only 705 new open buy-positions. Thus, traders didn't really buy the pound, nevertheless, it was the British currency that went up in price. If you look at the behavior of all categories of large traders in the reporting week, then they closed both purchase contracts and sale contracts. A total of 25,000 contracts were closed. Thus, in general, the pound was not in demand, but at the same time it was growing against the dollar. Such is the paradox.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair remains unchanged. No new information on the negotiations between Brussels and London. No new news from Boris Johnson. So far, all the news and expectations of traders are reduced to a personal meeting between the British prime minister and EU leaders, scheduled for June 18, during which there will probably be some shifts in the negotiations. However, there is little chance of this. Moreover, the fact that Boris Johnson will go to Brussels, and the fact that he will be able to move the negotiations off the ground. In the first case, the coronavirus can interfere, in the second - London's lack of desire to concede in the negotiations an unnecessarily "hard" position. On Friday, it became known that UK GDP fell in April by 20.4% in monthly terms, which is even worse than the most pessimistic forecasts. The same fate awaited the volume of industrial production, -24.4% y/y and -20.3% m/m. Thus, we can even conclude that on this day, the pound became cheaper for no reason, since with such statistics it would be very difficult to count on strengthening. Nevertheless, we believe that the pound would continue to fall without these statistics. There will be calm news in the UK and the United States on Monday, June 15th, and traders will have to be content with a new stream of interesting information from the White House, which will be designed to entertain market participants until really important statistics or messages appear.

There are two main scenarios as of June 15:

1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair remains in the hands of buyers, as the trend line remains relevant. Therefore, formally, it is now relevant for the long positions with the targets of the Kijun-sen line (1.2641) and the resistance area 1.2719-1.2759. The price rebound from the Senkou Span B line can even be interpreted as a buy signal. At the same time, we recommend that you trade and increase, then be extremely careful. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 100 to 180 points.

2) Sellers at the moment have fulfilled corrective goals. Now you need to wait to overcome the Senkou Span B line or the trend line in order to conclude that a new downward trend is forming. In this case, it is recommended to resume lower trading while aiming for the support area of 1.2194-1.2214. In this case, Take Profit will be about 180 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on June 15. COT report. Buyers retreated. Bears have excellent chances

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair continued its downward movement and crossed the critical Kijun-sen line on the hourly timeframe on June 12. After about two weeks of continuous and virtually recoilless growth, the pair still began to decline. However, so far this downward movement falls only under the definition of a correction. Two upward trend lines remain in force, which maintain the relevance of the upward trend. Thus, buyers could only retreat temporarily. In the coming days, we expect continued movement to the first trend line. Overcoming it will allow us to consider the bears' intentions much more seriously. The pair's downward movement to the Senkou Span B line should also be noted, which is a strong support, so a rebound may occur from it. Thus, even with another 100 points down, the bears can push the pair relatively easily. Furthermore, they will need additional efforts and reasons to continue to trade down.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels finally turned down on the 15-minute timeframe, so we now have a downward trend on the shortest timeframe, which has developed over the past two days.

COT Report

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The European currency continued to rise in price for most of the past week. Thus, we made assumptions that professional market players have invested in the euro currency, respectively, according to the latest COT report, the number of buy positions should have seriously increased. Or the number of contracts for the sale of the euro will seriously decrease. As a result, the report showed the implementation of the first option. The number of open buy positions increased by 12,662, while sales contracts were reduced by large traders (by 2,579). Thus, even a double effect was obtained. As for the general changes among all categories of traders in the COT report, it is the number of sell deals that has grown over the past week. However, as we all perfectly understand, it is speculators who drive the market, and accordingly, it is their actions that interest us first of all.

The overall fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair remains neutral. During the last trading day of the past week, no important publications were published either in the United States or in the European Union. However, the pair did not stay in one place during the day, but adjusted, so we continue to insist that technical factors are now the most important and significant in predicting the movement of EUR/USD. In general, the entire macroeconomic background now boils down to completely failed reports for April-May, and it does not matter which country it is about. The coronavirus crisis hit absolutely all countries of the world, even those where the epidemic itself was not large-scale. The modern economy connects all countries very closely with each other. Therefore, even if the epidemic was only in China, other countries of the world would still suffer. Well, the most interesting events are still taking place in the US. It seems that the whole world is most interested in the topic of the US presidential election, as well as the personality of Donald Trump. More and more analysts believe that the American president has made too many mistakes in recent months. Trump's political ratings continue to fall, while Sleepy Joe can be renamed "silent and wise Joe." Joe Biden gives an extremely small number of comments, practically does not pour mud on his opponent, and his ratings continue to grow, because Trump does, in principle, all the work for his main opponent. There is no new information on the topic of China-US trade confrontation. Not a single important macroeconomic report is planned on the first trading day of the week.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 15:

1) So far, the bulls have released the initiative from their own hands, so the EUR/USD pair may continue the downward movement. Therefore, after overcoming the Kijun-sen line, we recommend selling the pair with goals of the Senkou Span B line (1.1158), the trend line (1.1100) and the support level of 1.0974. Potential Take Profit range from 90 to 270 points.

2) We recommend considering the option to resume the growth of the EUR/USD pair if the bulls manage to return to the area above the critical Kijun-sen line, as well as above the resistance area of 1.1326-1.1339. Then we will recommend buying the euro again with targets at the resistance levels of 1.1417 and 1.1542. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 70 to 190 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com