Positive surge on Monday morning, while bypassing the NZD and AUD

On Monday, stock indices are growing steadily on the news from China. Last Saturday, the People's Bank of China made a crucial decision to reform the assessment of the key interest rate, which increases expectations for easing monetary policy and is expected to contribute to the increase in risk appetite.

As a result, protective assets are sold, gold goes into correction after rapid growth, and rates on government bonds are growing rapidly. Although it is not yet clear how long the positive attitude will last, but in the short term, it is necessary to proceed from the fact that raw materials and risky assets will be in demand.

NZDUSD

The manufacturing sector of New Zealand fell for the first time since 2012.The PMI index in July amounted to 48.2 p. against 51.1 p a month earlier. On the other hand, the sub index of new orders also fell to a minimum in almost 7 years, and employment reached its lowest level since June 2009.

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These data could be a cause of serious concern to the RBNZ, however, there is one positive point that has so far offset the deterioration in the manufacturing sector. This factor is the increase in average wages. Despite the obvious problems with economic growth, the average hourly earnings in the sector amounted to 2 sq. 4.5%, and annual inflation rose from 2.1% to 2.2%.

These figures allow us to hope that domestic demand is still at a high level, and therefore, the RBNZ will continue to hold a pause in interest rates until the end of the year. At the same time, in the long run, the trend is negative and is based on a change in the demographic composition of the population of New Zealand. According to the ANZ study, the ratio of the working population of New Zealand to the disabled will decrease by 25% in the coming years, so the RBNZ fiscal policy will be directed towards continuing mitigation, even if the economy shows signs of recovery.

In the short term, New Zealand will continue to trade in the range with a gradual drift to the support level of 0.6377. Possible growth in the resistance zone 0.6433 / 50 can be used for sales, while stops are above 0.6470.

AUDUSD

Australian currency continues to trade in the range. Macroeconomic data, which was published last week, did not significantly affect quotes. The consumer confidence index from Westpac rose in August to + 3.6 p from -4.1 p a month earlier. This is a good sign of stable demand, respectively, increased inflation expectations. Meanwhile, monthly calculated by the University of Melbourne, increased, while unemployment remained unchanged at 5.2% in July.

Ai Group's composite business conditions index and NAB's business conditions index still look very unconvincing. Thus, the downward trend continues.

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The conditions for continuing the mitigation policy from the RBA continues. Inflation forecast remains negative. NAB suggests that by the end of 2021, inflation will reach the bottom of the target range. GDP growth over the next two years is projected at a level slightly above 2%, which is not bad against the background of global trends. However, it is considered very little if you look at internal historical data. Analysts are most worried about the weak sustainability of households, the decline in business investment, and the decline in exports.

In addition, the threat of further rate cuts remains. So far, the consensus opinion of the market is that another reduction will occur in November. The rate will be lowered to 0.75%, while other measures are not excluded. More and more opinions are increasingly being published that, in addition to the RBA policy, the government should be involved in solving the problem of economic slowdown, for which it must introduce new tax incentives in order to maintain consumer demand and investment in infrastructure, since the state of the balance sheet allows such steps to be taken without any special consequences budget.

In conclusion, the Australian currency will remain in the range in the short-term in the near future, but the downward trend will increase. The nearest support at 0.6760 / 70 will not last long, the movement to 0.6734 will continue, and the breakthrough of support may strengthen the downward momentum.

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Overview of GBP/USD on August 19th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Boris Johnson may resign, what does

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: 146.7962

Well, the media is actively exaggerating the theme of the conspiracy in the British Parliament, initiated by Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn against Boris Johnson, the current Prime Minister. There is only one reason – to protect the country from the insidious plans of Johnson for an uncontested exit from the EU on October 31. Without exaggeration, we can say that Johnson not only spent 100 million pounds on advertising the "hard" Brexit and informing the population about its essence but also plunged the population into shock. We have already written that the British are preparing for a "hard" Brexit almost as well as Armageddon, buying medicines, food, and essentials. Also, the government document "Yellowhammer", which was published on the weekend, shows that with the supply of many goods, food and fuel can be interruptions after October 31. In light of all this, Jeremy Corbyn said he wants to form a provisional government, which is ready to head for a few months to declare a vote of no confidence in Johnson and prevent Brexit without agreements. This will be followed by new elections of the Prime Minister, but it is too early to talk about it. According to some reports, some parties approve of Corbyn's initiatives, even some conservatives are ready to support him, as clearly aware of what the consequences will be for the country if Johnson implements his plan. Thus, we have to wait for the resumption of the work of the Parliament, and we are waiting for the "hot autumn". In any case, Boris Johnson can become the first Prime Minister who will work no more than 2-3 months. Well, for the pound sterling, all this means only new shocks. Hopes for the growth of the British pound will be possible only when there are real opportunities to displace Johnson. After that, the probability of a "hard" Brexit will significantly decrease, which will support the pound. Until that moment, the British currency will remain in a state of "thrown out of the plane at an altitude of 11,000 feet."

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2146

S2 – 1.2115

S3 – 1.2085

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2177

R2 – 1.2207

R3 – 1.2238

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair formally continues its upward movement. Thus, it is even possible to consider long positions with targets at 1.2177 and 1.2207, but with minimum lots. It will be possible to sell the pound sterling after fixing the pair below the moving average, which will return the initiative to the bears in the forex market.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Overview of EUR/USD on August 19th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". The week starts without delay. The Euro

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – sideways.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -102.3216

On August 19, the EUR/USD currency pair is in an upward correction phase. It sounds loud, but in reality, the Heiken Ashi indicator, designed to show intraday movements, just turned up, and the last three bars were scanty in size. Thus, we have a correction only formally. In fact, today, the fall of the euro/dollar pair may resume, as unlike other Mondays, today, there will be significant publications. By and large, only one important report will be released today – inflation in the EU in July. The forecast in annual terms is 1.1%, and in monthly terms -0.4%. Given the general trend and the situation in the European Union, it is possible that the real values of the indicator will be lower. Yes, in principle, the value of 1.1% in itself can serve as the basis for new sales of the euro, as it is very far from the target of 2.0% and brings the European economy to the rate reduction even faster. No more important publications are planned for today, and until Thursday, the calendar of macroeconomic events of the European Union and the States is empty. On Wednesday evening, the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will be published, but we honestly do not remember the last time the market reacted to these reports. Yes, it will contain important information, but information that is already known to the market. Thus, traders will have to wait as much as Thursday to obtain fundamental information. The technical picture is clear – we need to wait for the turn of Heiken Ashi down and expect the pair to decline to 2-year lows, and, most likely, below.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1047

S2 – 1.0986

S3 – 1.0925

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1108

R2 – 1.1169

R3 – 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair is still being adjusted. Thus, to open new sales, we recommend waiting for the correction to be completed, which will be signaled by Heiken Ashi and re-sell the EUR/USD pair with the targets of 1.1047 and 1.0986. We are not talking about purchases now.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 19.08.2019 and trading recommendation

Today, the final data on inflation in Europe will be released, which should confirm the fact of its deceleration from 1.3% to 1.1%. Naturally, the decrease in inflation does not please investors in any way, and in theory, it should negatively affect the single European currency. However, investors have already taken into account such disappointing news, immediately after the publication of preliminary inflation data. So only if the final data does not suddenly coincide with the preliminary data, is it worth waiting for at least some kind of market reaction. But this is unlikely, since a discrepancy between the final inflation data and the preliminary data is extremely rare. Especially when it comes to Europe, while in the United States such surprises happen much more often. At the same time, the very fact of a slowdown in inflation, albeit not instantly, but in the medium term, will have a serious impact on the single European currency. Moreover, a negative. Indeed, for the European Central Bank, inflation is the main factor in determining not only the level of the refinancing rate, but also all other parameters of monetary policy. Well, the classical theory says that if inflation is low, then you need to adhere to a soft monetary policy. So the decrease in inflation is clearly not conducive to the thought process in the heads of the European Central Bank, in the direction of tightening monetary policy parameters.

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Following a significant inertial move, the EUR/USD pair found periodic support in the region of 1.1066, where against the background of a local oversold, a pullback to the previously passed level of 1.1100 was formed. Considering everything that happens in general terms, we see that the downward trend has won over 85% of the recent oblong correction, which is a good sign for the main downward trend.

It is likely to assume that the current slowdown of the versatile candles such as "Doji", serves as a kind of waiting platform, which can lead to an increase in volumes and as a fact a surge in the market. Control points at the current time are 1.1120, with an upward stroke and 1.1066, with a downward stroke. These points are considered when placing trades.

Specifying all of the above in trading signals:

• Long positions are considered in terms of a corrective move, where in case the price is consolidated above 1.1120, you can consider the move to 1.1150.

• Short positions are considered in terms of the continuation of the inertial course, where in case of consolidating the price below the local low of 1.1066, we will have a path to the psychological level of 1.1000 (+/- 30 points).

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that indicators on minute time passes are volatilely inclined towards purchases, but in view of stagnation, I would be wary of this signal. The intraday and long-term periods hold a downward interest in themselves due to the general market background and inertia.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on August 19, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the price will continue to move up with the first target 1.2215 - a pullback level of 14.6% (yellow dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the price will continue to move up. The scenario of the lower movement is unlikely, but we will consider it. When moving down, the first lower target 1.2058 is the support line (red bold line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on August 19, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

On Monday, before lunch (9.00 Universal time), the price will move up, with the target of 1.1110 - a pullback level of 23.6% (yellow dashed line). On Friday, the pair, moving down, tested the support line 1.1070 (blue bold line) and went up, in a pullback. Today, strong calendar news is expected at 9.00 Universal time (euro).

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The break down of the support line is unlikely. After testing this line on Friday, a pullback is likely to happen today with the first target 1.1110 - a pullback level of 23.6% (yellow dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion: up.

A scenario with a low probability - a downward movement will continue with the first target 1.1028 - the lower fractal.

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AUD / USD. Australian "minutes": what will the RBA protocol talk about?

Data on the Australian labor market which was released late last week supported the Australian currency. Together with the US dollar, the Australian stayed in the 67th figure and even tested the boundaries of the 68th figure. Of course, we cannot talk about any large-scale growth of the pair, but given the overall dominance of the greenback, this result looks pretty good. The Asian trading week started without a gap - the price level of the opening coincided with the level of the closing of Friday, as the weekend was quite boring and uninformative. Nevertheless, this week promises to be "fun", due to the publication of the Fed protocol and the economic symposium in Jackson Hole.

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However, the Australian dollar is waiting for its "release": we are talking about the minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which took place on August 6. In general, this meeting of the RBA members was neutral in nature - especially compared to the August meeting of the RBNZ, at which the New Zealand Central Bank unexpectedly reduced the rate immediately by 50 basis points. Traders of the AUD/USD succumbed to a general panic, in the context of possible similar actions by the RBA. Although, the text of the accompanying statement by the Australian Central Bank, as well as subsequent statements by Philip Lowe made it clear that the Australians are unlikely to follow the path of New Zealand colleagues - at least in the near future. Shortly after the meeting, the head of the RBA said that Australia needed a "long period of low interest rates" to accelerate inflation, reducing unemployment and rising wages, and "if necessary," the Central Bank will continue to soften monetary policy. This rhetoric of Philippe Lowe is fully consistent with market expectations. After the escalation of the trade war between the United States and China, investors are laying at current prices a rate cut to 0.75% at one of the autumn meetings and to 0.5% at the beginning of next year.

It is also worth noting that the head of the Australian regulator focused on the dynamics of the labor market - he believes that unemployment is likely to remain at about 5%, at least until 2021. Meanwhile, according to the RBA, the unemployment rate should drop to 4.5% in order to exert upward pressure on wages. In other words, the results of the RBA made it clear that Australian labor market indicators will play a special role for the Australian currency - especially in the dynamics of wages.

In this context, data on the growth of the Australian labor market which was published last week reduce the possibility of aggressive measures to ease the monetary policy by the RBA. And although the unemployment rate remained at 5.2% (at this point, the indicator has been released for the fourth month in a row), the number of employment growth jumped by 41 thousand (with a modest forecast of growth to 14 thousand). These figures themselves demonstrate the dynamics of the recovery of the labor market, but here, it is separately necessary to dwell on the structure of this indicator.

The fact is that the positive dynamics of employment growth in July was mainly due to the growth of full employment - this component jumped by 34.5 thousand. However, part-time employment, on the contrary, showed negative dynamics, rising by only 6.7 thousand. This trend can have a positive effect on the dynamics of wage growth, since regular positions, as a rule, offer a higher level of wages and a higher level of social security. In addition, the indicator of the share of the economically active population also turned out to be at a quite high level: the indicator updated the annual maximum (66.1%), repeating the similar success of the month before last.

Moreover, it is noteworthy that under the circumstances, each publication that came out "in the green zone" is important for the Australian currency. Reducing the interest rate in early June - the second time in half a year - the Reserve Bank of Australia at subsequent meetings did not get tired of repeating that the further steps of the regulator will depend on incoming data, especially in the labor market. Therefore, the published figures allow us to hope that the scales of the RBA during the autumn season will tend to fall to the variant of a wait-and-see attitude, despite the general market expectations, indicate the opposite.

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It is also worth recalling that Philip Lowe has repeatedly recalled the side effects of too low interest rates. Ahead of events, the RBA will reduce its maneuverability, which is especially risky in the uncertain prospects of a trade war between the United States and China. That is why the Central Bank of Australia is in no hurry to resort to another decline, hoping for the recovery of key macroeconomic indicators.

If the published minutes of the last RBA meeting confirm this assumption, the Australian dollar will receive support for its further corrective growth. The immediate goal of the upward correction is the level of 0.6830 - this is the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. If the pair impulsively overcome this target, the next resistance level is the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud, which corresponds to the price of 0.6940.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 19/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The Australian Tax Office (ATO) has sent warning letters to investors who have placed most of their retirement savings in cryptocurrencies.

As part of ATO's efforts to alert against high-risk investment strategies related to pensions, 18,000 Self-Managed Superfund holders, a type of retirement account managed privately by individuals, have been punished with up to 4,200 Australian dollars for violations, local media reports.

While the letter was addressed to every SMSF holder who owned over 90 percent of his retirement savings in a single asset - mainly in real estate - ATO also identified cryptocurrencies as a high-risk investment.

For clarity, the agency warns not about the asset class itself, but about excessive exposure to any asset. The Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) has expressed a similar view:

"Watch out for services offering the establishment of an SMSF for exposure to cryptocurrencies. Running an SMSF requires not only considerable time, skill and responsibility, but can also pose a risk to retirement savings."

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the level of $172.72 and broken through the technical resistance at the level of $190.94. The bulls have managed to move the prices higher towards the level of $196.76, which is a technical resistance for the price. So far the bulls did not have the strength to break through this level, but if they will, then the next target is seen at the level of $215.63. The immediate technical support is now located at the level of $190.94.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $257.46

WR2 - $236.43

WR1 - $213.67

Weekly Pivot - $193.41

WS1 - $171.74

WS2 - $150.23

WS3 - $128.88

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

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Trading plan for EURUSD for August 19, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish against 1.1240 for now. Looking at the wave counts since 1.1240, 3 waves seem to be complete. A slight pullback/retracement into wave 4 of the same degree is possible (prices close to 1.1120) before dropping lower again. As an alternate count, a push above 1.1180 would indicate that an interim low is in place in the short-term and that prices could rally beyond 1.1240 before resuming its drop. For all short positions taken around 1.1150/60 last week, a short-term profit can be taken at current levels or stop can be moved to 1.1180 reducing risk. A safe trading strategy still remains selling on rallies until a short-term impulse rally is seen taking out immediate resistance at 1.1240. Bears are expected to remain in control at least for now.

Trading plan:

Remain short from 1.1150/60 and move risk to 1.1180. OR Book short term profits and sell again around 1.1120 with stop at 1.1180 and target below 1.1020

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 19/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Bakkt cryptocurrency exchange has announced the upcoming launch of its long-awaited platform for daily and monthly futures in the United States. After receiving approval from the necessary regulatory bodies, commissioning is scheduled for September 23.

Bakkt's physically delivered futures contracts have been the subject of expectations for many people. The company initially announced their premiere for August 2018, but then faced repeated delays related to compliance issues. Meeting the CFTC requirements has proved particularly difficult.

According to the announcement, Bakkt has hosted many events in New York and Chicago - cities of key importance for the US futures market. They also met with regulators from the CFTC, as well as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

To ensure its futures contracts, Bakkt will work with Intercontinental Exchange Futures U.S. and Intercontinental Exchange Clear US.

Institutional and fiduciary services are a growing market in the space of cryptography - the leading US stock exchange Coinbase announced the purchase of a Xapo institutional fiduciary operation last night. After the announcement, Coinbase's CEO, Brian Armstrong, commented on the significant increase in the number of institutional cryptographic clients, saying:

"Whether the institutions intended to accept the crypto or not was an open question about 12 months ago. I think it's safe to say that we know the answer. Every week we see 200-400 million dollars of new cryptographic deposits from institutional clients".

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has retrace way below the last Fibonacci level and made a local low at the level of $9.415 before any significant bounce took place. Currently to market is trading around the level of $10,166, which is important technical resistance for the price. The bulls must move the prices higher towards the level of $11,027 in order to contolr the marekt. Any violation of this level will be a good signal of a possible further move higher towards the level of $11,855. The larger timeframe trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $13,461

WR2 - $12,432

WR1 - $11,161

Weekly Pivot - $10,133

WS1 - $9,200

WS2 - $8,268

WS3 - $7,027

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 19/08/2019

Technical market overview:

The GBP/USD pair has been trading for some time now inside of the narrow horizontal range located between the levels of 1.2012 - 1.2118, but the recent bounce above the level of 1.2170 brings some hope for a further move higher. The move-up is not very fast and sudden, but step by step the bulls are continuing to cover the higher ground. The next target for them is located at the level of 1.2209 and then at 1.2248. The positive and strong momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook towards these levels.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2378

WR2 - 1.2273

WR1 - 1.2217

Weekly Pivot Point - 1.2114

WS1 - 1.2060

WS2 - 1.1953

WS3 - 1.1902

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2429. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 19/08/2019

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair has slipped down below all of the Fibonacci retracement levels and made a low at the level of 1.1066. The next technical support is located at the level of 1.1034-1.1027 area and any violation of this zone will have nasty consequences. The bulls should now defend this zone, but it does not look like they will as the bears have full control over the market. The market conditions are now oversold extremely and the momentum remains weak and negative. The larger timeframe trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1330

WR2 - 1.1278

WR1 - 1.1161

Weekly Pivot Point - 1.1117

WS1 - 1.1003

WS2 - 1.0951

WS3 - 1.0838

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is treminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, August 19, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Final Core CPI y/y, the Final CPI y/y, and Current Account. The US will not publish any economic data today, so the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1147. Strong Resistance: 1.1141. Original Resistance: 1.1130. Inner Sell Area: 1.1119. Target Inner Area: 1.1093. Inner Buy Area: 1.1067. Original Support: 1.1056. Strong Support: 1.1045. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1039. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, August 19, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Trade Balance, while the US will not publish any economic data today. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3 : 106.90. Resistance. 2: 106.65. Resistance. 1: 106.45. Support. 1: 106.21. Support. 2: 106.01. Support. 3: 105.80. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on August 19, 2019

EUR/USD

On Friday last week, the euro fell by 41 points, reaching the first target at the Fibonacci level of 123.6% at a price of 1.1074 and slightly corrected upwards. On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator slightly bent up, which may indicate a suspension of the decline, a short respite from the market. After the price drops below the level of 1.1074, it is possible to resume the decline with the target of 1.0980 - the area of the Fibonacci level of 138.2%.

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On the four-hour chart on the Marlin oscillator, a small convergence formed, which confirms the potential for consolidation or a slight upward movement. The eurozone balance of payments for June will be published today, the forecast for it is 32.2 billion euros compared to 29.7 billion in May, there will be no publications in the US today, investors can win back the European advantage.

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EUR/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

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EURUSD is approaching our first resistance where we might be seeing a drop below this level.

Entry: 1.1111

Why it's good : Horizontal pullback resistance, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 1.1160

Why it's good : Horizontal overlap resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.1030

Why it's good: Horizontal swing low support

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AUD/USD approaching resistance, potential reversal

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Price is approaching its resistance where a reversal is expected.

Entry: 0.6798

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance

Stop Loss : 0.6835

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.6759

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

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Forecast for USD / JPY on August 19, 2019

USD / JPY

On Friday, the pair USD / JPY stayed in a converging wedge formed by the lines of rising and falling price channels on the daily chart. During the other day, and this morning, the price is held by the resistance line of the downward channel in the region of 106.48. Moreover, the consolidation of the price over yesterday's maximum opens the way to the resistance of the MACD line of the daily scale, in the region of 107.28.

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On the four-hour chart, the price is developing above the balance lines (indicator red) and the MACD (indicator blue). The signal line of the Marlin oscillator hovers above the boundary of the decline territory - On August 8-12, a similar pattern was observed recently. After which, there was a price jump up. Thus, we are waiting for the price to increase to the first target 107.28.

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USD/JPY approaching resistance, potential drop!

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USDJPY is approaching 1st resistance at 0.9805, potential drop could occur!

Entry :0.9805

Why it's good : horizontal pullback resistance

100% Fibonacci extension

50% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.9692

Why it's good : 78.6% Fibonacci retracement

100% Fibonacci extension

Horizontal swing low support

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Forecast for GBP/USD on August 19, 2019

GBP/USD

A summary of Friday's economic data on the US – they came out worse than forecasts and gave optimism to counter-dollar currencies, at the same time, the pound grew by 54 points. The number of new housing starts in the US in July fell from 1.24 million (revised from 1.25 million) to 1.19 million while consumer confidence fell from 98.4 to 92.1. As a result, the pound worked out the upper target of 1.2154, set by the Fibonacci level of 238.2% and this morning is being mastered (that is, does not fall) in the range of 6-7 August.

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The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart is approaching the boundary with the growth territory, there is a possibility of a reversal down from this line, but in this case the price can still overcome the top of the previous day. In the event of aggressive price growth, it is possible to achieve a Fibonacci level of 223.6% at 1.2230 without denying the reversal scenario - the Marlin oscillator will not have time to critically respond to the rapid price change. There is also a price channel line in the area of 1.2230, which creates a magnetic point with the Fibonacci level.

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On a four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above the lines of balance and MACD, the Marlin oscillator in the growth zone. The growth probability has increased, but this is a correction, we are waiting for its completion. At the same time, a symposium of bankers in Jackson Hole will begin on Thursday and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak on Friday. Therefore, the pound can wander freely until the end of the week.

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Control zones Bitcoin 08/19/19

Bitcoin is trading above the balance level for the second day. This became possible after stopping the fall during the test of monthly control zone in August. The middle course zone was also tested at the end of last week. The likelihood of an increase in the value of bitcoin increases. You should not expect a sharp increase in the price, however, while the balance marks are below the course, you should keep the purchases open at the end of last week. Sales can be closed completely, since the probability of falling below the level of $10,000 in August is 30%.

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Favorable price for the purchase of the instrument will be at any level below $10,000. The first growth goal can be considered at the $10,749 mark. When bitcoin reaches this level, a partial consolidation of purchases and the transfer of the rest to breakeven will be required.

An alternative model has a probability of implementation below 30%, which does not make it possible to enter sales. The instrument is trading near the monthly control zone. This makes a further decline unlikely. If the decline occurs below $10,000, then the probability of a return to this mark in August will be at 70%, and in case of exit and closing of the month's trading below this level, the probability will increase to 90%.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones USDJPY 08/19/19

Today, the pair is again trading outside the monthly control zone of August, which makes it possible to use any decline to find favorable prices for purchasing the instrument. The defining resistance is WCZ 1/2 106.72-106.63. While the pair is trading below this zone, the upward movement remains corrective, however, sales will not be profitable, since the probability of moving away from the monthly control zone is 30%.

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Work in the medium-term flat implies purchases from the lower boundary. The probability of a return to the level of 106.45 is 90%, which makes any transactions profitable in the direction of weakening the Japanese yen.

An alternative model will be developed if the closure of today's US session occurs above the level of 106.72. This will make it possible for you to hold purchases and open new positions with the aim of testing the weekly control zone 107.81-107.62.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on August 19

Forecast for August 19 :

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1124, 1.1102, 1.1073, 1.1062, 1.1032 and 1.1011. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of August 13. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range of 1.1073 - 1.1062. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 1.1032. Price consolidation is near this level and hence, the likelihood of a correction. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 1.1032.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.1088 - 1.1102. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.1124. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1088 Take profit: 1.1100

Buy 1.1105 Take profit: 1.1122

Sell: 1.1060 Take profit: 1.1035

Sell: 1.1030 Take profit: 1.1011

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2245, 1.2224, 1.2191, 1.2169, 1.2135, 1.2117 and 1.2081. Here, we follow the development of the ascending cycle of August 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2169 - 1.2191. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 1.2224. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2245. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2135 - 1.2117. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.2081. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2170 Take profit: 1.2190

Buy: 1.2195 Take profit: 1.2224

Sell: 1.2135 Take profit: 1.2118

Sell: 1.2115 Take profit: 1.2081

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9949, 0.9923, 0.9883, 0.9854, 0.9816, 0.9768, 0.9745 and 0.9714. Here, we follow the ascending structure of August 13th. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9816. In this case, the target is 0.9854. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.9854 - 0.9883. The breakdown of the level of 0.9883 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.9923. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9949. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9768 - 0.9745. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9714. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9816 Take profit: 0.9854

Buy : 0.9856 Take profit: 0.9881

Sell: 0.9768 Take profit: 0.9747

Sell: 0.9743 Take profit: 0.9715

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.62, 108.14, 107.45, 106.91, 106.35, 105.94, 105.64 and 105.01. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure from August 12. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.91. In this case, the target is 107.45, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 107.45 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 108.14. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.62. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The range of 105.94 - 105.64 is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward movement. In this case, the target is 105.01.

The main trend: building potential for the top of August 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 106.91 Take profit: 107.43

Buy : 107.47 Take profit: 108.14

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 105.62 Take profit: 105.04

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3445, 1.3422, 1.3385, 1.3361, 1.3329, 1.3288, 1.3265, 1.3240 and 1.3194. Here, we are following the development of the local ascendant structure of August 9. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3330. In this case, the target is 1.3361. Consolidation is in the range of 1.3361 - 1.3385. The breakdown of the level of 1.3385 will allow us to count on movement towards a potential target - 1.3422. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the range of 1.3422 - 1.3444, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

A short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3288 - 1.3265. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3240. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of August 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3330 Take profit: 1.3360

Buy : 1.3387 Take profit: 1.3422

Sell: 1.3288 Take profit: 1.3266

Sell: 1.3264 Take profit: 1.3240

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6967, 0.6922, 0.6902, 0.6869, 0.6843, 0.6803, 0.6762, 0.6733 and 0.6675. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of August 7, and the price has formed a small potential for the top of August 14. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6803. In this case, the first target is 0.6843. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6843 - 0.6869. The breakdown of the level of 0.6870 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.6902. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6902 - 0.6922. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6967. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Meanwhile, in the range of 0.6762 - 0.6733, a consolidated movement is expected. The breakdown of the level of 0.6733 will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 0.6675.

The main trend is the ascending structure of August 7, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6805 Take profit: 0.6840

Buy: 0.6844 Take profit: 0.6867

Sell : Take profit :

Sell: 0.6730 Take profit: 0.6680

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.40, 118.65, 118.22, 117.58, 117.16 and 116.54. Here, we are following the development of local potential for the bottom of August 13. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 117.58 - 117.16. The breakdown of the latter value will allow us to expect movement to a potential target - 116.54. Consolidation is near this level.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 118.22 - 118.65. The breakdown of the last value will have the formation of an ascending structure for the top. Here, the first goal is 119.40.

The main trend is the formation of a local descending structure of August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 118.22 Take profit: 118.62

Buy: 118.70 Take profit: 119.40

Sell: 117.56 Take profit: 117.18

Sell: 117.14 Take profit: 116.55

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 132.17, 131.23, 130.57, 129.66, 127.94, 127.33, 126.48 and 125.57. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of August 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 129.00 - 129.66. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 130.57. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 130.57 - 131.23. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 132.17. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 127.94 - 127.33. The breakdown of the latter value will favor the development of a downward structure. Here, the first goal is 126.48. As a potential value, we consider the level of 125.57.

The main trend is building potential for the top of August 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.67 Take profit: 130.55

Buy: 130.60 Take profit: 131.20

Sell: 127.30 Take profit: 126.50

Sell: 126.44 Take profit: 125.60

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GBP/USD. August 18th. Results of the week. The long-awaited correction for the pound

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 126p - 92p - 56p - 56p - 100p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 86p (84p).

The strengthening of the British pound at the end of the week is like a gift for the new year. Given the macroeconomic reports received from the UK this week, there could be an impression that the pound sterling's growth is justified. However, from our point of view, there is no connection between reports from the United Kingdom and the British currency's meager growth. The first point in favor of this assumption is the need for a technical correction. Not a single currency can fall or grow constantly, from time to time, traders will take profits, and the pair will retreat against the trend. The second point - inflation in the UK accelerated to 2.1%, retail sales exceeded forecasts, salaries also showed positive dynamics, but the main reason is the fall of the pound in recent weeks, months and years. Since the pound depreciates, this leads to an increase in inflation (the United Kingdom, unlike the United States and the European Union, boasts stable inflation of 2.0%), a forced increase in wages (the so-called inflationary growth), and the growth in retail sales was associated with... Great fears among the British over a "hard" Brexit and life after it. In recent weeks, UK citizens have simply stocked up on food and medicine in case the disordered Brexit does happen, which led to an increase in retail sales. It turns out that all three positive reports from the UK are not so positive. And if you recall that the unemployment report showed an increase from 3.8% to 3.9%, then the fundamental background is already shifting to the "negative" side.

Meanwhile, a secret document was released called Yellowhammer, which said that the UK could face serious disruptions in the supply of food, medicine, fuel and their shortages in the case of a hard Brexit. The fears of the authors of this document are connected with the work of ports and customs under the new rules. There are also serious concerns about the riots on the island of Ireland, as in the case of a hard Brexit, a border will appear between Ireland and Northern Ireland, which does not suit very many residents of the island.

Well, the British Parliament has its "own series". According to recent reports, the Labour Party can unite as Conservatives to oppose Boris Johnson and his initiative to leave the EU quickly and no matter how. With the Conservatives, who themselves elected Johnson to the post of their leader and prime minister a month ago. With Conservatives who knew very well that Johnson's main election promise was to implement Brexit by October 31st. Now, Corbyn and a company of other MPs want to remove Johnson from work in order to protect the country from economic disaster. Well, the pound, although it has grown from multi-year lows by as much as 150 points, does not look like a currency that is ready to start an upward trend.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair continues its upward correction. Thus, formally, it is now recommended to buy the GBP/USD pair with targets at 1.2228 and 1.2272, however, transaction volumes should be minimal. We believe that there are no fundamental factors for the solid strengthening of the pound, and traders will remain absolutely pessimistic over the British pound until October 31.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

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EUR/USD. August 18th. Results of the week. The euro in a "coma". Another week of failure for the euro

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 44p - 69p - 59p - 60p - 68p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 60p (58p).

The last trading day of the outgoing week, August 15, turned out to be rather boring in terms of macroeconomic events. In the United States, reports were published on the construction segment, from which it became clear that the number of new building permits exceeded forecasts and amounted to +8.4% in July, but the number of laying new foundations, on the contrary, turned out to be worse than expectations of the foreign exchange market and decreased by 4.0%. Thus, it is difficult to say whether this news was in favor of the dollar or not. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index also turned out to be worse than analysts forecasts (97.2) and amounted to 92.1. However, first of all, the US dollar still rose in price during Friday's trading, and secondly, the more significant and important reports on retail sales and inflation this week were encouraging in the United States. It is reasonable to note that traders paid more attention to these reports, and not to messages from the construction sector. Moreover, now, we can say, the issue is being solved, will there be a new reduction in the Fed key rate, and if so, when? Recall that the solution to this issue will depend entirely on macroeconomic statistics. If the "figures" do not give cause for concern, then the Fed may well keep the key rate unchanged at a meeting in September. And so far, from our point of view, everything is going to this. We also believe that the softening of monetary policy in September will provide strong support for the US currency, since the European Central Bank will most likely lower its rate in September and will also announce the resumption of the quantitative easing program. Now let's analyze the most important factor for determining and forecasting the euro/dollar exchange rate: the Fed and the ECB rates. The Fed lowered the rate, and the US currency is still growing. What happens if the ECB lowers the rate? Correctly, most likely, the bearish mood of the forex market will intensify even more. The pair's rate is 1.1089, and the low for the last two years is 1.1027. As you can see, the pair is not something that has not rebounded from the lowest values, which is typical for the completion of the downward trend, it continues to slowly slide back to these levels, which makes the probability of further downward movement equal to 80-90%. From a technical point of view, the Ichimoku indicator continues to clearly point down. Even the MACD indicator continues to be directed downward, even signalling an absence of correction.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move down. Thus, on Monday, it is recommended to continue to remain in shorts for the euro/dollar pair with a target of 1.1037 (tomorrow this target will be specified). The bearish mood in the market remains, but the reversal of the MACD indicator will indicate a round of corrective movement. Buying the euro is now impractical, there are no signs of the completion of a downward trend.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Preview of the week: focus on Fed minutes and Jackson Hole

Despite the strong downward momentum, bears of the euro-dollar pair could not overcome the support level of 1.1070, which corresponds to the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. Although sellers tested this target on Friday, the trading week ended at around 1.1090. Germany unexpectedly came to the aid of the European currency. Representatives of the German government said that Berlin could allow a budget deficit by loosening budget saving rules and abandoning a zero-deficit policy. It is worth noting that the Germans have always been very conservative in this matter, so traders were surprised at Angela Merkel's position, who allowed fiscal stimulation and, as mentioned above, the budget deficit.

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It is worth noting here that the German Constitution limits the increase in federal debt to 0.35% of the nominal volume of economic production, subject to GDP growth. However, in crisis situations, the law provides the government with certain agility. After much debate, Berlin nevertheless expressed readiness for action, and this fact provided some support for the euro. The financial impetus from Germany is especially important in the context of the September meeting of the ECB. According to some analysts, this step on the part of the Germans will allow members of the European regulator not to resort to extremely aggressive measures to soften the parameters of monetary policy.

However, this fundamental factor will soon lose its influence. The dollar will be in the spotlight again, which in turn will focus on key events of the coming week. First of all, we are talking about the economic symposium, which takes place annually in the small American town of Jackson Hole, in Wyoming.

It is no secret that this symposium is called the "barometer" of the sentiment of the central banks of the leading countries of the world. The forum is attended by the heads of the central banks (usually at the level of chairmen or their deputies) of the leading countries of the world, finance ministers, leading economists and analysts, and leaders of major world conglomerates and banking giants. For three days they discuss urgent problems, crystallize certain signals and determine the main dotted lines of further steps. As a rule, the financial world elite discusses the most pressing problems that are currently relevant. For example, in 2015, the number one topic was the collapse on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, in 2016 they talked about the consequences of Brexit, and in 2017 - the expansion of bond spreads and further steps by the Fed and the ECB. Last year, the central theme of the meeting was the trade war between the United States and China (or rather, its consequences). Obviously, this year the topic of global trade conflict will again be in the spotlight, as well as the impending Brexit.

But these are all common topics: during the three-day symposium, the heads and representatives of many central banks will speak, who can talk about their future actions in the context of monetary policy prospects. In particular, on Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak - if he takes a dovish position, the US currency will receive an impetus to decline throughout the market, including paired with the euro. However, the latest releases of US statistics retain the intrigue regarding the tonality of the rhetoric of the head of the Federal Reserve. Nonfarm data recovered after the spring slowdown, inflation accelerated, retail sales rose. If Powell focuses on these factors, then the dollar can get significant support, and EUR/USD bears will arrive at the bottom of the 10th figure.

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Also this week the minutes of the last Fed meeting will be published. Against the backdrop of the Jackson Hole Symposium, this release will be of secondary importance, however, it may also affect the pair's volatility. For example, the minutes of the June meeting of the Federal Reserve showed that regulator members have different opinions on inflation in the country. According to some officials, the growth rate of inflation indicators does not cause concern, according to others, this growth is unstable. The rhetoric of this minutes put pressure on the US dollar until Jerome Powell debunked investors' fears with its optimism about the growth of key inflation indicators in the second half of the year. Apparently, a similar situation is expected this week. If Powell's speech resonates with the rhetoric of the Fed minutes, then the market reaction will only intensify, against the background of other fundamental factors. In any case, the Fed minutes will be seen through the prism of news from Jackson Hole.

Thus, the events of this week make it possible to bring the euro-dollar pair from the price band, determining the vector of further movement. The main task of EUR/USD bears is to overcome the "round", psychologically important mark of 1.1000. The task of the pair's bulls is to stay above this target, and for fidelity, to rise to the boundaries of the 12th figure. By and large, many central bank leaders this week will "reveal the cards" regarding their further actions. Against this background, all other fundamental factors (macroeconomic reports and comments of "ordinary" members of the central bank) will be of secondary importance.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com