Coronavirus' weakening impact will lead to a rally in the markets and a noticeable drop in the dollar (a local decrease in

The Chinese manufacturing PMI data released today from Caixin, as well as yesterday's values of the manufacturing PMI, turned out to be higher than expected, but, but in contrast, they failed to give the markets a positive impulse.

The presented indicator managed to grow above the important level of 50 points to 50.1 points in March against a February decline of 40.3 points and a forecast of an increase of 45.5 points. But in general, the stock market both in China itself and in Asia did not respond to them, still focusing on the situation with coronavirus in the world.

In addition to Chinese statistics, retail sales in Germany in February was released today. They are at their best, having demonstrated growth in monthly terms by 1.2%, and in annual terms by 6.4%. But we expect that the March figures will be much lower, since the peak of COVID-19's influence declined on the FRG in particular and on the whole of Europe as a whole in March, when strict quarantine measures were put in place to limit the spread of this infection.

The currency market in conditions of high uncertainty of the consequences of the impact of COVID-19 continues to swing from side to side. The ICE dollar index is currently consolidating in a narrow range below 100.00 points after falling last week on the wave of demand for risky assets. Again, such dynamics can be explained by the factor of uncertainty of the effects of this infection on the world economy. Investors understand that this scourge will not last indefinitely, but the longer the economies of the leading countries are quarantined, the stronger the blow. We, as before, believe that the coming month of April will be decisive in this matter. If the infection rates decline this month, we can hope that the European and American economies will begin to recover actively.

With this scenario, we expect growth in demand for highly profitable currencies, which will begin to receive support against the US dollar. The recovery in demand for Chinese products will push Australian and New Zealand dollars to rise. The increase in the cost of oil will have a beneficial effect on the Canadian currency. On the general wave of growth in demand for risk, the euro will grow, and after it, the pound. At the same time, we expect a depreciation of the yen and the Swiss franc.

Regarding the general dynamics this week, it can be argued that markets can get another stress after the publication of data on employment in the States, which will be released on Friday and will be expected to be extremely negative. But again, we note that in general the markets are already accustomed to all kinds of shocks and, looking at the situation around the coronavirus, they are waiting with tension for the first positive signals in order to start the post-coronavirus rally.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair is turning down on the wave of expectation of negative data on employment in the States, which will be released today from ADP and Friday from the US Department of Labor. Price reduction below the level of 0.6060 will lead to a local decline of the pair to the level of 0.5945.

We expect a similar dynamics in the NZD/USD pair, which can be directed to the level of 0.5780 if it crosses the level of 0.5900.

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 04/01/2020 and trading recommendation

The single European currency tried hard to fall further yesterday, and it even worked out pretty well for it. But the coronavirus ruined everything. There was only hope that the peak of the spread of the epidemic had passed in the United States and the sad dynamics of the growth in the number of infected ones had stabilized, as terrifying news had come. A new anti-record was set in the United States yesterday, and the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus infection increased by 26.4 thousand. After such reports, the euro quickly returned to the values from which it started yesterday's trading day.

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At the same time, the euro stubbornly ignored the actual European data. But preliminary data on inflation showed its decrease from 1.2% to 0.7%, which, of course, seriously increases the likelihood that the European Central Bank will nevertheless lower the refinancing rate to negative values. However, before the release of data, there were strong fears that the slowdown in inflation would be more significant. So albeit with a stretch, but we can say that in the end the data turned out to be even better than expected. But the single European currency went down. The fact of a serious decline in inflation is an extremely negative factor.

Inflation (Europe):

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At the same time, we can not say that the US data were weak. On the contrary, S&P/CaseShiller data showed an acceleration in real estate price growth from 2.8% to 3.1%. However, we expected an acceleration to 3.2%. And the starting point should have been 2.9%. So the growth rate was slightly less than the forecast, and the previous data was revised for the worse. But still, we are talking about acceleration, not deceleration. In other words, macroeconomic statistics were negative in Europe and positive in the United States. But the rapid spread of the coronavirus across the United States has confused all maps.

S&P/CaseShiller home price index (United States):

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If the dollar can blame the coronavirus for its failure yesterday, then today it needs to rely on it. As strange as it sounds. The unemployment rate in Europe will be released, which should remain unchanged. This strongly contrasts with the indirect data on the labor market that comes from the United States. There is no longer any doubt that there will be a serious spike in unemployment in the United States, triggered largely by the coronavirus epidemic. But it turns out that the European labor market is still holding up and clearly looks better than the American one. It is clear that this is an extremely positive signal for the single European currency.

Unemployment rate (Europe):

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But the United States is expected to provide new and appalling information about the state of the labor market. ADP data should show a reduction in employment by as much as 170,000. This should be the first decline in employment since 2017. Employment decreased by 39,000 back then in September. But this was a local and temporary phenomenon. It is now clear that the situation can only get worse. And the scale of the reduction in employment is impressive. So yes, the dollar can only hope for news about the coronavirus. For example, reports that the peak of the epidemic in the United States has passed. Or something like that.

Employment change from ADP (United States):

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we see an attempt of downward development, during which a local movement was formed towards the 1.0926 mark, but after that there was a reverse move, consolidating the quote above the psychological level of 1.1000. In fact, the currency pair continued to focus on the same levels as days earlier, signaling a variable sideways move.

In terms of the overall review of the trading chart, we see a rapid upward move from last week, where a path of more than 450 points was passed. The existing oscillation does not break the structure of the course, thus the upward movement can still be considered as a prospect for further development.

We can assume a temporary fluctuation in the range of 1.1000/1.1040, where a breakout of the upper boundary and a move towards the 1.1080 level is not excluded. The main movement is considered after consolidating the price above 1.1095.

We will concretize all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider long positions in the form of basic transactions if the price is consolidated higher than 1.1040, in the direction of 1.1080. The second move is made from 1.1095, towards 1.1145.

- We consider short positions as alternative transactions if the price is consolidated below 1.0990, towards 1.0950.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see a versatile signal issued by technical instruments, which arose due to a slowdown in terms of lateral movement. The indicators will be aligned in the case of price taking relative to the coordinates of 1.0950/1.1080.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP/USD on April 1, 2020

The pair moved downward on Tuesday and tested a pullback level of 23.6% - 1.2258 (blue dotted line), and after that, the price went up. Today, there is a possibility that the pullback downward movement will continue until the news at 12:15 UTC. Strong calendar news for the pound is expected at 06:30 UTC, and for the dollar at 12:15, 14:00 and 14:30 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, from the level of 1.2423 (closing of the Friday afternoon candle) the pair will continue to move downward with the first target of 1.2258, a retracement level of 23.6% (blue dashed line). I think that no matter where the price is during the 12:15 UTC news, only the upward movement is possible. Or, upon reaching this line, the upward movement will be possible with the target of 1.2518, a retracement level of 61.8% (blue dashed line). From this level, the upward movement will continue.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the pullback downward movemnet is likely to continue with the first target of 1.2258, a retracement level of 23.6% (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this line, there will be a reversal towards an upward movement.

Unlikely scenario: from a retracement level of 23.6% - 1.2258 (blue dashed line) work down with a target of 1.2096 - a retracement level of 38.2% (blue dashed line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR/USD on April 1, 2020

The pair moved upward on Tuesday, but it did not manage to reach the pullback level of 61.8% - 1.1168 (red dashed line), and after an unsuccessful upward attempt, the price went down. Moving down, it was not able to overcome the lower pullback level of 38.2% - 1.0953 (blue dashed line). The bulls, on the other hand, managed to gain 106 points up. Today, the upward movement may continue. Strong calendar news for the euro is expected at 07:55 UTC, and for the dollar at 12:15, 14:00 and 14:30 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the pair will continue to move down, with the target of 1.0953, a pullback level of 38.2% (blue dotted line), but this will depend on the news. An upward movement is possible with the first target of 1.1067, a pullback level of 50.0% (red dashed line). If this level is reached, the continuation of the upward movement is with the target of 1.1168, a retracement level of 61.8% (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price will try to continue to move up after a small pullback down (before the news).

An unlikely scenario: from a pullback level of 38.2% - 1.0953 (blue dashed line) work down, with a target of 1.0993, a pullback level of 50.0% (blue dashed line).

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 01/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

At a time when many global jurisdictions, such as the Bahamas and Sweden, are already testing their digital central bank (CBDC) currencies, the French central bank is becoming more direct regarding its own CBDC plans.

The Bank of France is now officially starting a program of experiments to test the integration of CBDC for interbank settlements, inviting potential participants to submit applications.

According to a published document, the French central bank calls for applications to experiment using the digital Euro to explore the potential of CBDC in the settlement and settlement of tokenized financial assets. Although previously the Bank of France called for the introduction of Blockchain-based billing systems in Europe, it stated that it did not impose any specific technology as part of the newly announced CBDC experiment program.

Therefore, the French Central Bank will select a maximum of 10 CBDC-related applications by group or by person, focusing on "innovative nature" as the main selection criterion. According to the detailed document requesting applications, applicants must be established in the European Union or a country that is a party to the agreement on the European Economic Area. Applicants may submit applications by May 15, 2020, and their selection will take place on July 10, the bank said.

The bank's experiment with CBDC has three goals, such as modeling of CBDC-based interbank settlements as well as identification of benefits and analysis of potential risks. Among the three potential use cases, the Bank of France lists payments on financial instruments, payments using the digital currency of other central banks, and payments on digital assets.

The bank emphasized that it will not be involved in creating money as part of its CBDC experiment. In addition, the central bank noted that it would destroy the token reflecting the amount in Euro in digital form at the end of the accounting day on which the payment was made.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair did not manage to break through the short-term trend line resistance located at the level of $132 again and the price was rejected from this level after Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made. This level will now act as a resistance for the price, so it is worth to notice, that is located very close to the short-term trend line (marked in black). Ethereum is trying to bounce after the rejection, but to make this bounce more important, the bulls must break through the level of $134.65 and then through $142.77. In a case of a failure, the lower levels will be tested: $118.53 and $114.98. Please notice, there is almost non increase in momentum as the price moves up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $161.35

WR2 - $151.83

WR1 - $136.71

Weekly Pivot - $127.64

WS1 - $112.54

WS2 - $102.86

WS3 - $88.46

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD on April 1, 2020

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EUR/USD: There's consolidation ahead of the upcoming major statistics in the US.

Today, the first reports on the economy of US for the month of March will be released.

ADP's employment report for the month of March will come out at 13:15 London time. Experts' forecast on the index is minus 200 K, but I believe that its real figure might be much worse.

At 15:00 London time, the ISM report will be released, and any result below 50 will indicate a decline.

EUR/USD: Buy at the break of 1.1150 upwards. Stop at 1.1105. The target is 1.1250.

The current center of the pandemic is the United States.

As of the morning of April 1, the number of infected people in the United States is 184 thousand. There's an increase of +24.7 thousand cases per day, or almost +15% per day.

The US government predicts that 100-240 thousand Americans will die from the pandemic. If we take the lower limit as the basis, the number of deaths will be 100 thousand deaths. If we take into account the 4% mortality rate of all infected, the number of patients should be 2.5 million.

Meanwhile, in Europe: the most severe situation is still in Spain, with 96 thousand patients. There's an increase of +8,000 per day, and increase of +748 deaths per day.

In Italy, the number of deaths due to the virus has increased slightly- +837 per day. The good news is that the number of new infections is +400, almost half of that in Spain.

Russia has 2,337 confirmed COVID-19 cases. Most of them came from Moscow, so a quarantine was introduced until April 5. In Ukraine, the number of cases increased sharply. It is now 600.

Although the US market is still growing due to the support measures of the government, I personally believe that the pandemic in the US, as well as its negative impact on the economy, will cause a new big wave of decline in the markets.

Nevertheless, we are anticipating the reports on the US economy.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs as of April 1

Forecast for April 1:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1273, 1.1220, 1.1133, 1.1068, 1.0988, 1.0942 and 1.0870. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the ascending structure of March 20. We expect short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation, in the range of 1.1068 - 1.1133. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.1220. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1273. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.0988 - 1.0942. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the potential target is 1.0870. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of March 20

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1068 Take profit: 1.1130

Buy: 1.1135 Take profit: 1.1220

Sell: 1.0988 Take profit: 1.0944

Sell: 1.0940 Take profit: 1.0870

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2879, 1.2654, 1.2550, 1.2315, 1.2216 and 1.2099. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of March 19. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2550 - 1.2654. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the potential target is 1.2550. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2315 - 1.2216. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2099. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of March 19

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2550 Take profit: 1.2652

Buy: 1.2655 Take profit: 1.2876

Sell: 1.2315 Take profit: 1.2218

Sell: 1.2214 Take profit: 1.2100

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9781, 0.9719, 0.9690, 0.9649, 0.9579, 0.9539, 0.9497, 0.9424 and 0.9342. Here, the price has formed the potential for the top of March 30. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9649. In this case, the target is 0.9690. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9690 - 0.9719. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9781. Upon reaching this value, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9579 - 0.9539. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward movement. Here, the target is 0.9497. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to count on movement to the level of 0.9424. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9342.

The main trend is the downward cycle of March 20, the potential for the top of March 30

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9649 Take profit: 0.9690

Buy : 0.9720 Take profit: 0.9780

Sell: 0.9579 Take profit: 0.9542

Sell: 0.9537 Take profit: 0.9497

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.58, 108.72, 108.17, 107.27, 106.56, 106.10 and 105.15. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of March 25. At the moment, the price is in correction. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.27. In this case, the target is 106.56. Price consolidation is in the range of 106.56 - 106.10. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 105.15. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Consolidated movement is possibly in the range of 108.17 - 108.72. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 109.58. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

Main trend: the downward trend of March 25

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.17 Take profit: 108.70

Buy : 108.74 Take profit: 109.56

Sell: 107.25 Take profit: 106.56

Sell: 106.10 Take profit: 105.15

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.4344, 1.4215, 1.4119, 1.3956, 1.3747, 1.3615 and 1.3425. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of March 19. At the moment, the price is in correction. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3956. In this case, we expect a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.3747. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.3747 - 1.3615. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3425. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Consolidated movement is possibly in the range of 1.4119 - 1.4215. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the potential target is 1.4344. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of March 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy : 1.4217 Take profit: 1.4344

Sell: 1.3954 Take profit: 1.3750

Sell: 1.3745 Take profit: 1.3620

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6596, 0.6511, 0.6352, 0.6241, 0.6031, 0.5935 and 0.5779. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of March 19. At the moment, we expect a movement to the level of 0.6241. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6241 - 0.6352. The breakdown of the level of 0.6352 will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 0.6595. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6595 - 0.6511.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6031 - 0.5935. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.5779. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of March 19

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6241 Take profit: 0.6350

Buy: 0.6354 Take profit: 0.6511

Sell : 0.6030 Take profit : 0.5935

Sell: 0.5933 Take profit: 0.5780

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.07, 119.67, 119.01, 117.95, 117.12, 116.48 and 115.23. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of March 25. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 117.95. In this case, the goal is 117.12. Price consolidation is in the range of 117.12 - 116.48. For the potential value for the downward movement, we consider the level of 115.23. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range 119.01 - 119.67. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the top. In this case, the potential target is 121.07.

The main trend is the descending structure of March 25

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.01 Take profit: 119.65

Buy: 119.70 Take profit: 121.05

Sell: 117.95 Take profit: 117.12

Sell: 116.45 Take profit: 115.25

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 140.54, 138.12, 136.99, 134.93, 133.59, 131.58, 129.78 and 127.47. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of March 18. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 133.59 - 134.93. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 136.99. Price consolidation is in the range of 136.99 - 138.12. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 140.54. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 131.58 - 129.78. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the target is 127.47. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward cycle of March 18

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 133.60 Take profit: 134.90

Buy: 134.95 Take profit: 136.99

Sell: 131.58 Take profit: 129.80

Sell: 129.70 Take profit: 127.50

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Crude Oil Price Movement For April 01, 2020

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As we know, Russia and Saudi Arabia are now involved in the oil trade war. Saudi Arabia is ramping up production rates with a low cost which is not good for the oil market, although yesterday US President Donald Trump made a special call to Russia's President Putin to discuss this oil trade war. We don't now how this story will end, but from the technical view we see a small 123 Formation at #CL. It seems that crude oil has a chance to go up at least for test the Buy Side Liquidity Pool at $21.88-21.98 as long #CL does not retrace lower than the 19.27 level. So, the Buy Side Liquidity Pool at $21.88-21.98 will be reached soon with a high probability.

(Disclaimer)

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Gold Price Movement during Covid 19 Outbreak For April 01, 2020

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At the 4-hour chart, we see that Gold has a divergence between the price with the CCI (30) and the CCI (30). The metal is now trading below the -100 level. This means the moment is more appropriate for Gold sellers according to the 4-hour chart. Now Gold is still moving in a consolidation area, although there is a possibility for Gold to retrace to $1,596.46 before the price goes down again to reach the $1,552.89-1,552.70 area. As long as Gold does not retrace upwards and breaks out and closes above $1,641.96, the price will aim for $1,552.89-1,552.70.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 01/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

After many delays, the adoption of the main Russian law on cryptocurrencies will be postponed once again, this time because of the coronavirus.

Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the Russian State Duma of the State Commission for Financial Markets, says that the national cryptography act - a draft law on digital financial assets - is currently being finalized, but will not be adopted before the end of spring 2020.

According to a Russian press agency report of March 31, Aksakov admitted that earlier delays in adopting the bill were due to disagreement with the new type of asset between local authorities. Aksakov, who is also the chairman of the National Banking Council at the Russian central bank, reportedly said that the central bank opposed the legalization of cryptocurrencies, while the State Duma advocated some cryptographic initiatives.

However, the long-awaited law is now postponed for another reason. As Aksakov noticed, when Russia shifts to priority actions against the COVID-19 pandemic, all legislative processes slowed down.

Aksakov added that the upcoming Russian cryptographic law will define the definition of cryptocurrency and prohibits the use of cryptocurrency as a form of payment. In addition, the law will cover the issue and trading of digital assets, the official said. In mid-March, the executive director of the Russian central bank said the bill bans the issuance and circulation of cryptocurrencies.

Aksakov also emphasized that the new law will not hinder cryptocurrency exchanges operations if they do not break it. He added that the bill on digital financial assets does not contain provisions regarding the extraction of cryptocurrencies. However, he expressed the conviction that profits from cryptographic mining should be taxed, noting that cryptographic mining is a "type of activity that creates value".

Aksakov's recent remarks about the delay in adopting the upcoming Russian cryptography law appear after Russia has seen the largest one-day increase in coronavirus cases for the sixth time in a row.

Technical Market Outlook:

The bears on Bitcoin have managed to push the price lower after a Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made. The price made a local low at the level of $6,271, which is a technical support for the price. In a case of a breakout here, the lower levels of the red zone will be tested again: $5,900 and $5,500. The price of BTC/USD is below the trend line already and the larger time frame trend remains down, so the odds favor the bears.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $7,805

WR2 - $7,343

WR1 - $6,514

Weekly Pivot - $6,022

WS1 - $5,217

WS2 - $4,764

WS3 - $3,965

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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AUD/USD. Aussie besieges the resistance level of 0.6170 in anticipation of US data

The Australian dollar paired with the US currency is firmly fixed above the 60th figure and has been testing the resistance level of 0.6170 for the past three days (the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). The aussie ignores the strengthening of the greenback – despite the dollar index's growth, the AUD/USD pair holds its positions and persistently besieges the above-mentioned price target.

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Buyers of the pair are guided by the news flow from China, while ignoring the general pessimism about the prospects for the world economy. Although more recently, the situation was mirrored: news from China provoked a general excitement around the US currency, plunging the Australian dollar to 18-year lows, namely, to the 0.5510 level. However, the situation quickly stabilized: China was able to extinguish the outbreak of the epidemic in a relatively short time, and the AUD/USD pair was able to quickly return above the strategically important 0.6000 mark. And if the pair's bulls can overcome the resistance level of 0.6170, they will open their way to the next price barrier – 0.6270 (the Kijun-sen line on the weekly chart).

AUD/USD buyers are testing this target for the third consecutive day. In particular, the pair's bulls received support from Chinese data yesterday: contrary to pessimistic forecasts, the PMI index for the Chinese manufacturing sector exceeded the key 50-point mark and reached 52 points. And this is despite the fact that this indicator collapsed to 35 points in February. According to the general expectations of experts, the indicator should have recovered to only 44 points. The index of activity in the non-manufacturing sector showed similar dynamics – after a record decline to 29 points, it jumped to 52.3 points (with a forecast of growth to 42).

These figures reflect recent trends. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of Chia, 98.6% of the country's industrial enterprises have already resumed their work after the quarantine. In particular, in Hubei province (where, in fact, the virus spread around the world), 95% of industrial giants resumed work. 76% of small and medium-sized businesses have also started production. The Ministry also clarified that about 80% of workers in the steel and electronics industries have gone to work. Industrial production has also recovered in other provinces that previously had strict quarantine restrictions. In general, according to experts, in the previous month (that is, in March), the state of the Chinese market improved: industrial activity is recovering, stocks are declining, demand is growing, and prices began to gradually increase. The financial world immediately reacted to these trends. In particular, US investment funds have begun to acquire both individual shares of Chinese companies and shares in specialized exchange-traded funds, which in turn are invested in the most successful and reliable Chinese assets. Similar decisions are made by investors from other countries of the world.

This news stream supports the aussie, since China is the main trading partner of Australia. That is why, despite the devastating impact of the coronavirus on the national economy of Australia, the aussie keeps its position.

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But in the medium term, the fundamental background for the AUD/USD pair will be determined not by Chinese news, but by US events. In particular, the ADP report on the increase in the number of employed in the US will be published today. It is important first of all in the context of the upcoming NonFarms, which will be published the day after tomorrow – on Friday. As for today's release, the forecasts are disappointing – according to ADP specialists, the number of employees in March decreased by 125,000. This result will become a multi-year anti-record, and will undoubtedly put pressure on the US currency, thus supporting the AUD/USD bulls.In addition, the US manufacturing index ISM is set to be published today. It was below the key 50-point level for a long time (from August to December 2019), reflecting the deterioration of the situation in this area. However, it exceeded this important level in January and February, showing positive dynamics. To the disappointment of dollar bulls, the index will plunge again in March – according to preliminary forecasts, it will reach the level of 46 points. Here it is worth noting that on Monday, a devastating indicator was published in the sphere of production – the production activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas fell to a record low (-70 points). If today's indicator comes out weaker than the unsatisfactory forecasts, the dollar may come under significant pressure.

Thus, the AUD/USD pair retains the potential for further growth. Long positions with a medium-term upward target at 0.6270 should be considered after the bulls break through and consolidate above 0.6170, which corresponds to the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 1. Focus on 1.1033. First US reports released today taking into account the

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Yesterday, the bulls managed to return to the market from the support of 1.0932, which I drew attention to in my review for the second half of the day. The rebound from this level is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart, as well as the purchases that could be observed after each attempt of the bears to return to this range. At the moment, attention will be focused on the data on the index of manufacturing activity and the labor market in the eurozone, although they are unlikely to have a strong impact on the euro, which can not be said about the reports on the US economy, set to be released in the afternoon. Bulls need to return the resistance of 1.1033, above which the upper boundary of the current descending channel passes. Consolidating on this range will allow you to count on the repeated growth of EUR/USD to the weekly high of 1.139 and its update in 1.1231, where I recommend taking profits. If pressure on the pair persists further, it is best to return to long positions after the support test of 1.0932, provided that a false breakout is formed there, or immediately to rebound from a low of 1.0880.

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To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers will actively defend the resistance of 1.1033, on which a lot depends in the short term. The formation of a false breakout in the first half of the day at this level will signal the opening of new short positions based on weak data on the eurozone labor market and low production activity, which will lead EUR/USD to yesterday's low in the 1.0932 area. However, the longer-term goal of sellers is to support 1.0880, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls manage to regain the resistance of 1.1033 in the first half of the day, it is best to return to short positions only for a rebound from the weekly high of 1.139, or from the larger area of 1.1231.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the formation of a side channel in the short term.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth will be limited by the upper boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1065. A break of the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1000 will increase pressure on the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for April 1, 2020

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EUR/GBP continued through the expected support at the 50% corrective target 0.8891 to a low of 0.8811. This new low was as expected, thus a bit lower than expected. However, this new low likely marks the end of wave iv and the onset of wave v towards 0.9742.

That said, we need a break above minor resistance at 0.8948 and more importantly a break above resistance at 0.9006 to confirm that wave v is developing for the final impulsive rally towards our ideal target at 0.9742.

R3: 0.9040

R2: 0.9006

R1: 0.8948

Pivot: 0.8910

S1: 0.8900

S2: 0.8870

S3: 0.8842

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 0.8900 with our stop placed at 0.8800

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 1, 2020

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GBP/JPY continues to stall at the 50% corrective target at 134.52 but we still need a break below minor support at 132.72 and more importantly a break below support at 132.10 to confirm that wave iv has completed and wave v is unfolding. The ideal target for wave v is seen near 123.04, but all that's needed is a break below 123.99 to fulfill all requirements.

As long as minor support at 132.72 is able to protect the downside , we must accept the possibility for a final spike above 134.52 to complete wave iv.

R3: 135.50

R2: 135.05

R1: 134.73

Pivot: 134.30

S1: 133.45

S2: 132.72

S3: 132.10

Trading recommendation:

We are short GBP from 134.45 with our stop placed at 135.45

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 01/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair is still hovering around the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2516 despite the overbought market conditions. The bulls were rejected from that level and the price went down towards the nearest technical support located at the level of 1.2308. Since then, the market is trading slowly in a narrow horizontal range. There is still no indication of a local up trend reversal and the momentum is still strong and positive. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.2199, so there is a room for bears. Please notice, that the larger time frame trend remains down and all the moves up will be treated as a local counter-trend corrections during the down trend.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3952

WR2 - 1.3223

WR1 - 1.2933

Weekly Pivot - 1.2180

WS1 - 1.1877

WS2 - 1.1101

WS3 - 1.0804

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 01/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has made a lowe low at the level of 1.0926 as anticipated. The USD dollar is appreciated across the board as the global coronavirus pandemic continues, so the EUR moves a little lower. The market conditions are now coming off the overbought leves, so another wave down towards the next technical support at the level of 1.0888 is possible. The rally towards the 61% Fibonacci will likely not be continued as the level of 1.0926 had been violated. Please notice, that the larger time frame trend remains down and all the moves up will be treated as a local counter-trend corrections during the down trend.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1885

WR2 - 1.1507

WR1 - 1.1380

Weekly Pivot - 1.1006

WS1 - 1.0876

WS2 - 1.0484

WS3 - 1.0325

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 1. Fight in the channel continues, market remains on the side of pound buyers.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The pair's growth from yesterday afternoon after the support test of 1.2315, below which the bears did not manage to break through, which is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart, led to the growth of GBP/USD in the resistance area of 1.2487, above which the bears did not let go. Now trading is conducted in the middle of the channel, and I do not recommend taking any actions from there. While the pair is above the 1.2315 area, we can expect continued growth of GBP/USD in the resistance area of 1.2487, the breakout of which will provide a direct path to the highs of 1.2605 and 1.2686, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of a correction of the pound to the 1.2315 level, you do not need to rush to open long positions. It is best to wait for the support test of 1.2150, or buy immediately for a rebound from the low of 1.1985. Given that the release of important fundamental statistics on the UK economy is not planned for today, most likely in the first half of the day, trading will take place in a side channel.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Nothing is over yet for the sellers of the pound, since they did not allow this week's high to be updated yesterday, which may indicate the reluctance of large buyers to return to the market at current levels. Bears need to try to get the market back under their control, and to do this, they need to gain a foothold below the support of 1.2315. The fourth attempt to do this in the European session may lead to a breakout of this area and a larger sell-off of GBP/USD to the area of lows 1.2150 and 1.1985, where I recommend taking profits. The 1.1985 support test will also indicate the resumption of the bear market. In the scenario of an attempt by the bulls to regain the upward trend, only the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2487 will be the first signal to open short positions. Otherwise, it is best to sell the pound on a rebound from the highs of 1.2605 and 1.2686.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the 1.2450 area. A break of the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.2350 will raise pressure on the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 1. A report from ADP on changes in the number of workers in the US could collapse the

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 55.1549

The third trading day of the week begins with the same corrective movement that was observed in the first two days. The price successfully adjusted to the moving average line and failed to overcome it within a few hours. Thus, at the moment, we can assume with a high probability that there will be a rebound from this line with the resumption of the upward trend. Moreover, as we have already mentioned in this article, the Senkou span B and Kijun-sen lines of the Ichimoku indicator were worked out, which also act as strong supports, from which the pair can rebound. As a result, we have three strong supports at once. So much the better. If the pair manages to overcome them, the chances of further downward movement will increase many times. If there is a stand-off, the campaign will resume to the north. What is undoubtedly pleasing in the current state of things is the declining volatility of the EUR/USD pair. Yesterday, only 126 points were passed, which is still a lot for the euro currency. However, the pair still does not pass daily by two hundred points, which indicates a slight calming of the market.

Today will be extremely interesting. During the third trading day of the week, a large number of various macroeconomic statistics will be published, from insignificant European to extremely important American. Let's start with the European one. First, a report on retail sales for February in Germany will be published. This report does not even make sense to analyze since there is absolutely no market reaction to it. A little later, business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors of Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the European Union as a whole will be published. This data will also cause at least some market reaction, since the preliminary values have already been published, and they were not a failure or shocking. Yes, there will be a decline in business activity in the manufacturing sector of each country, but not as critical as in the service sectors of the same countries. In Germany, the expected value is 45.5 and in the European Union - 44.7. The values are low, but we would like to remind you that in the last year, business activity in the EU's manufacturing sectors was already below the key level of 50.0, and the industrial sector itself at first just lost its growth rate and then declined in the last year and a half. It would be strange if business activity suddenly started to grow during the raging coronavirus epidemic. Thus, we believe that traders are ready for such figures and they will not be shocked by them. Also today, the European unemployment rate for February will be published, so it is not interesting.

The most interesting data will arrive on April 1 from overseas. First of all, we are talking about the ADP report on changes in the number of employees in the US private sector. Given the fact that the epidemic has led to the strongest increase in unemployment in the US, as well as an increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits, nothing good can be expected from the ADP report. According to experts' forecasts, we should expect a reduction of 150,000-170,000. Over the past 5 years, the States have only recorded a negative value of this report once, at the end of 2017. Thus, any negative value of the indicator can theoretically put pressure on the US currency. Next, two indices of business activity in the US manufacturing sector for March will be known, according to Markit and ISM. We remind you that the preliminary value of the ISM index is not published, and the preliminary value of the Markit index showed a minimal reduction compared to February - 49.2 points. Yes, business activity in manufacturing in the States will also go "below the waterline", but this is not surprising. The surprising thing is that the decline will only be to 49.2 points or so. However, there is also the ISM index, which is considered more important and significant. And it is for the second index that a serious decline in business activity is expected, from the current 50.1 to 44-45 points. Thus, there is no doubt that business activity in the manufacturing sector will decline by the end of March, the only question is how much will the ISM index decline? But we still believe that first of all, traders will study the report from ADP. And I must say that it can be much worse than the forecasts. From our point of view, it is the ADP report that can provoke new sales of the US currency in the afternoon of Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump, via Twitter, showed his satisfaction with the current levels of the Fed's key rate and is also going to initiate a new bill to help the American economy by another $2 trillion. "Since interest rates are now near zero, it is time to pass the long-awaited infrastructure bill. It should be very large-scale and powerful, worth two trillion dollars. He should be fully focused on jobs and rebuilding our country's infrastructure," Trump wrote.

In addition to possible new monetary infusions into the US economy, the Fed will launch a new credit program for central banks starting April 6. Now foreign central banks will be able to receive dollar loans in exchange for US Treasury securities. Earlier, it was reported about the launch of several more programs for dollar lending to foreign central banks. Thus, the US government and the Fed continue to flood not only their economy with cash, but also the world economy. From our point of view, this may significantly reduce the demand for the US currency, which will see some oversupply in the near future. Of course, in the conditions of crisis and panic in the markets, participants can resume buying the US currency, guided only by considerations of the steadfastness of the dollar. However, all the same, fundamental factors will sooner or later return to the scene and make you pay attention to them.

As you can see, the COVID-2019 virus is not retreating. Thus, the markets remain in an agitated state. However, the panic is still slowly subsiding and this can not but please. The economies of many countries around the world remain put on pause, but you can judge their decline by official statistics. Moreover, everything will depend on the time frame during which it will be possible to localize the spread of the epidemic. First of all, this applies to the United States of America and the European Union.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair remains at high values, but still continues to gradually fall. The average value for April 1 is 153 points and in the last eight days, the volatility does not exceed 200 points per day. Today, we expect a further decrease in the level of volatility and movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.0861 and 1.1167.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0986

S2 - 1.0864

S3 - 1.0742

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1108

R2 - 1.1230

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair continues to adjust. Thus, market participants are recommended to wait for the completion of the current correction (the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator up) and again buy the euro with the targets of 1.1108 and 1.1167. It is recommended to sell the EUR/USD pair only after fixing the bears below the moving average line with the first target of 1.0864. When you open any position, it is still recommended to be more cautious as the situation on the market remains turbulent.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 1, 2020

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro launched an attack on the strong technical support of 1.0967, formed by the point of intersection with the line of the descending price channel and the Fibonacci level of 38.2%, as can be seen on the daily scale chart. At the same time, the price tried to gain a foothold under the MACD indicator line, but it returned to this line by the time the session ended.

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Today, it opened under the MACD line and under the balance line (red indicator), which indicates the market's intention to repeat the attack at 1.0967. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves parallel to the boundary with the territory of the bears, waiting for a signal from the price itself.

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Marlin is already in the negative trend zone on the four-hour chart, while the price is kept above the balance and MACD lines. An attack pattern is created for the MACD line, that is, to the target level of 1.0875, determined at the low of October 1, 2019.

So, if yesterday's high of 1.1053 is not violated, short positions in the market can be opened with the target of 1.0875. Stop loss above 1.1053.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on April 1, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound lost 170 points on Tuesday at the moment, the day closed near the opening level. With a decrease, the Fibonacci level touched 161.8%, which confirms the working settings of this tool. Therefore, we confirm the early forecast that if the price overcomes the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.2235, the pound may fall to the target at the Fibonacci level of 200.0% at the price of 1.1935.

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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has penetrated into the negative trend zone; the second attempt to overcome 1.2235 will probably be successful.

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Aggressive trading allows opening sales at current prices with a stop loss above yesterday's high at 1.2472. A more cautious trading style requires waiting for the breakout of the signal level of 1.2235.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on April 1, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar lost 94 points yesterday, and it did not have the strength to overcome the signal level of 0.6078. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves along the boundary dividing the growth zone from the decreasing trend zone, it still lacks the initial momentum to turn down.

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Obviously, such an impulse will appear when the price overcomes the signal level of 0.6078. In this case, the 0.5834 target will open - an embedded line of the price channel. Before a price reversal, another small upward movement is possible in the 0.6215/40 range, formed by the line of the price channel and the Fibonacci level of 61.8%.

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On a four-hour chart, a possible exit of the price up to the specified range will mean the formation of a double divergence on the Marlin oscillator. Leaving the price under the signal level of 0.6078 will send the aussie to 0.5834. The MACD line in the area of 0.5915 is the intermediate support here.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on April 1, 2020

USD/JPY

The dollar jumped 100 points against the yen on Tuesday, but remained under pressure from technical instruments - the balance line (red indicator) and the MACD line (blue indicator). Today, in the Asian session, the price develops in the range of embedded lines of the price channel of the higher scale 107.02-107.85. Consolidating the price under the lower boundary opens the way to movement to the lower line of the price channel 102.60. This is the preferred scenario, since the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is located in the territory of the downward trend. The conditional alternative allows another attempt to raise prices to the MACD line, to 109.00.

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The Marlin indicator is moving up on the four-hour chart, which warns of an alternative. But if growth does not occur, the price will overcome 107.02, sales of the pair with T/P above 102.60 are possible. Yesterday, US stock index S&P 500 fell 1.60%, while the Japanese Nikkei 225 is losing 1.08% today, which puts pressure on the currency pair.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Comprehensive analysis of movement options of #USDX vs EUR/USD vs GBP/USD vs USD/JPY (H4) on April 01, 2020

Minuette operational scale (H4)

A day of laughter (April Fool's day) or fun continues in the markets. Here's the development options for the movement of the main currency instruments #USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY from April 1, 2020 in a comprehensive form

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US dollar index

The movement of the dollar index #USDX from April 1, 2020 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 99.75 - the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks;
  • support level of 99.25 - the starting line of SSL of the Minuette operational scale forks

The breakdown of the resistance level of 99.75 is an option for the development of the movement of the dollar index in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (99.75 - 100.65 - 101.55) with the prospect of reaching the SSL Minuette start line (102.40) and the equilibrium zone (102.70 - 104.10 - 104.75) of the Minuette operational scale.

On the other hand, with a sequential breakdown of the resistance level of 99.25 on the initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale forks and ISL38.2 Minuette (99.50), the movement #USDX will occur again in the equilibrium zone (99.05 - 98.00 - 96.90) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of marking the movement of the dollar index from April 1, 2020 are presented on the animated chart.

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Euro vs US dollar

From April 1, 2020, the development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD will continue depending on the development and the breakdown direction of the range:

  • resistance level of 1.0992 - lower boundary of ISL61.8 of the Minuette operational scale forks;
  • support level of 1.032 - the ultimate Schiff Line Minuette.

The breakdown of the final Schiff Line (support level of 1.0932) Minuette will lead to an option to continue the downward movement of the single European currency to the goals:

- reaction line RL61.8 (1.0895) of the Minuette operational scale forks;

- SSL start line (1.0765) of the Minuette operational scale forks

Alternatively, the breakdown of ISL61.8 (resistance level of 1.0992) Minuette will lead to the option of resuming the movement of EUR / USD in the equilibrium zone (1.0992 - 1.1081 - 1.1170) of the Minuette operational scale forks and during the breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (1.1170), the movement of this instrument will already begin to flow in the equilibrium zone (1.1150 - 1.1280 - 1.1400) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of the EUR / USD movement options is shown on the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

Her Majesty's GBP / USD currency from April 1, 2020 will continue to develop its movement in the equilibrium zone (1.2070 - 1.2290 - 1.2500 of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details of working out the indicated levels are presented on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the support level of 1.2070 on the lower boundary of ISL61.8 of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks is a continuation of the downward movement of Her Majesty's currency to the equilibrium zone (1.1940 - 1.1750 - 1.1570) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Meanwhile, in case of breakdown of the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 (resistance level of 1.2500) equilibrium zone of the of the Minuette operational scale forks, the upward movement of GBP / USD will continue to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Line Minuette channel (1.2635 - 1.2815 - 1.2995).

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen on the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

The currency of the "land of the rising sun" USD / JPY from April 1, 2020 will continue to develop its movement depending on the development and direction of breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (107.50 - 108.30 - 109.10) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details of the development of the mentioned levels are presented on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 109.10) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will lead to the continuation of the development of the upward movement of USD / JPY to the goals:

- final line FSL (109.90) of the Minuette operational scale forks;

- ultimate Schiff Line Minuette (110.50);

- 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (112.00 - 112.50 - 113.00).

On the contrary, the breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 107.50) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks will lead to the continuation of the downward movement of USD / JPY to the equilibrium zone (106.10 - 104.90 - 103.70) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement on the animated chart.

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The review was compiled without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com