Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 08, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook above 109.65. The pair has formed an intraday rounding bottom, and is likely to post a new rise. The nearest key support at 109.15 should limit any downward attempts. Besides, both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are turning up, and should push the prices higher. Last but not least, the relative strength index is supported by a bullish trend line.

Hence, as long as 109.65 is not broken, look for further advance to 110.80 and 111.10 in extension.

Graph Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point, the present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines shows the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY at dips, Stop Loss: 109.65, Take Profit: 110.80

Resistance levels: 110.80, 110.85, and 111.05

Support levels: 109.35, 109.15, and 108.65

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 08, 2017

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USDCHF's yesterday target has been hit as predicted. The pair is still expected to trade with a bullish outlook above 0.9635. Although the pair retreated from 0.9675 (the high of June 7), it is still trading above the key support at 0.9635, which should limit the downside potential. The rising 50-period moving average suggests that the price has potential for a further upside. The relative strength index is supported by a rising trend line since June 2.

To conclude, as long as 0.9635 holds on the downside, look for a continuation of a rebound to 0.9720 and even to 0.9760 in extension.

Graph Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point, present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines shows the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: Buy at dips, Stop Loss: 0.9635, Take Profit: 0.9720

Resistance levels: 0.9720, 0.9760, and 0.9800

Support levels: 0.9610, 0.9575, and 0.9535

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 08, 2017

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The pair is trading in a higher range as predicted. Today, NZD/USD is expected to continue its upside movement. The pair is consolidating above the key support at 0.7185, which should limit the downside potential. The relative strength index is mixed to bullish. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Therefore, as long as 0.7185 is not broken, look for a further rise to 0.7260 and even to 0.7300 in extension.

At present, the pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7260 and the second one at 0.7300. In the alternative scenario, short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7165 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is expected to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7145. The pivot point lies at 0.7185.

Strategy: BUY at dips, Stop Loss: 0.7185, Take Profit: 0.7260

Graph Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point; the present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines shows the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7260, 0.7280, and 0.73000

Support levels: 0.7165,0.7145, and 0.7100

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for June 08, 2017

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Yesterday's GBP/JPY target has been hit as presicted. Today, the pair is expected to extend its upside movement. The pair posted a rebound and broke above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the bullish cross between 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified, which indicates a positive signal. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50. Hence, as long as 141.70 is not broken, expect a further upside to 143.10 and even to 143.460 in extension.

Hence, as long as 141.70 is not broken, expect a further upside to 143.10 and even to 143.460 in extension.

At present, the pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long position is recommended with the first target at 143.10 and the second one at 143.60. In the alternative scenario, short position is recommended with the first target at 141.40 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is expected to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 140.70. The pivot point lies at 141.70.

Graph Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point, present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines shows the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy : BUY at dips, Stop Loss: 141.70, Take Profit: 143.10

Resistance levels: 143.10, 143.60, and 143.95

Support levels: 141.40,140.70, and 140

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 8, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (Multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

Otherwise, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1260).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when a Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

The next daily supply level to meet the EUR/USD pair is located between (1.1400-1.1520) where price action should be watched for possible bearish rejection.

Recent Update: The price levels around 1.1270-1.1285 constitute Intraday resistance where some bearish pullback is being expressed.

Bullish breakout above 1.1285 is needed to allow further bullish advance towards 1.1400.

Trade recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair remains bullish initially towards 1.1400 unless evident signs of bearish rejection are expressed earlier on the chart.

A valid SELL Entry can be considered at the depicted supply zone (1.1400 up to 1.1520) especially if signs of bearish rejection are expressed.

S/L should be placed above 1.1550 while T/P levels should be placed at 1.1100, 1.1020 and 1.0850.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 8, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair market failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

Bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated off depicted Supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the depicted downtrend took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The temporary bearish rejection was expressed around 0.7050 (previous daily-tops) before further bullish advance was pursued towards 0.7120.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7220 stands as a prominent supply zone in confluence with Fibonacci level 61.8%. That's why a bearish rejection should be anticipated.

On the other hand, daily candlestick closure above 0.7230 (Upper Limit of the current SELL-Zone) opens the way for bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380.

Trade recommendations:

A valid SELL-Entry can be considered at the current SELL-Entry zone (0.7150 up to 0.7220) especially if signs of bearish rejection is expressed.

S/L should be placed above 0.7250 while T/P levels should be placed at 0.7050, 0.6970, and 0.6850.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for June 08, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair continued to flirt with 1.1280 levels until today before reversing lower again. Please note that the pair has tested recent highs three times and failed to get through fresh highs, which might be an indication of exhaustion and that a meaningful retracement should be expected lower. Looking at the wave count, EUR/USD might have completed wave 3 at a higher degree and should be looking to terminate into wave 4, producing an expanded flat. If the above wave count holds true, we should see the pair unfolding lower into 5 sub waves and pushing through 1.1100 levels a least. Please note that the Fibonacci 0.382 support is also falling around the same price (1.1000) as discussed in earlier sessions. A push below 1.1200 levels would confirm the down trend and accelerate lower.

Trading plan:

Please remain short with stop placed just above 1.1290 levels, targeting 1.11.

GBPUSD chart setup:

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Technical outlook:

The GBP/USD pair is looking to be poised to drop lower. The prices should remain below 1.3047 levels going forward. Please note that the pair is already at the Fibonacci 0.618 resistance of its earlier drop between 1.3047 through 1.2767 levels as depicted here. Furthermore, it is producing an engulfing bearish candlestick pattern at the moment which is indicating that bears are just about to regain control back here. Looking into the wave structure, the pair has produces waves (1) and (2) at a larger degree looking to unfold into 5 waves lower from here. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3047 levels while interim support lies at 1.2767 levels.

Trading plan:

Please remain short now, stop above 1.3047 with target at 1.2600 levels at least.

Fundamental outlook:

Big day to watch out for ECB Central Bank Rate Decision to be out in a few minutes and UK General Election Day.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 08, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair is still trading in a downwards from the level of 0.9733 which represented a major resistance today. The pair dropped from the level of 0.9733 to the bottom around 0.9620. But yesterday the trend has rebounded from the bottom of 0.9620 towards the level of 0.9677(minor resistance). Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9677 followed by 0.9733, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9560. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9733 and 0.9560; for that, we expect a range of 173 pips (0.9560 - 0.9733) in coming hours. If the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9733, the market will decline further to 0.9620 again. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9560 with a view to testing the daily support 1. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.9733, then the stop loss should be set at 0.9803.
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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for June 8, 2017

This week EURAUD had numbers of impulsive bearish move bouncing off from 1.5025 to currently at the edge of 1.4880 support level. Today AUD had negative Trade Balance report with the worst figure at 0.56B which was expected to be at 1.91B. Previously the Trade Balance was at 3.17B and with that aspect, a decrease in Trade Balance report indicates the decrease in Export Demand of the products as well as the currency and it also impacts the production and prices at the domestic manufacturers. Despite having worst Trade Balance report AUD is seen to continue its gain till now against EUR today. On the other hand, today Eurozone had a series of positive reports till now like German Industrial Production was published at 0.8% which was expected to be at 0.6%, French Trade Balance was published with a better figure at -5.5B which was expected to be at -5.9B and Revised GDP also showed rise to 0.6% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.5%. Moreover, today Eurozone Minimum Bid Rate report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.00% and along with that ECB President Draghi is going to have a speech today about the policy decisions and recent interest rate. During the event, a good amount of volatility is expected to hit the market and provide direction about the upcoming move in the market in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently in a non-volatile bearish trend and it has already broken below the 20 EMA support with a daily close. Currently, the price is just at the edge of 1.4880 support level and today if we see a daily close below the 1.4880 support we will be looking forward to selling with a target towards 1.4600 area. The pair is currently in bearish bias and it is expected to continue until price takes out 1.5100 with a daily close above it.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 08, 2017

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Overview:

  • Pivot point: 0.7205.
  • The NZD/USD pair is showing marks of strength following a breakout of the top level of 0.7122. The level of 0.7122 coincides with 78.6% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as major support today. Since the trend is above the 78.6% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.7122 - 0.7159 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.7250. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.7250, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.7305 in order to test the daily resistance 2. However, if the NZD/USD pair succeeds to break through the support level of 0.7122 today, the market will decline further to 0.7057 for that it will of the wisdom to set your stop loss at the price of 0.7110.
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Analysis of USD/JPY for June 08, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading sideways at 110.05. According to the 4H time frame, I found a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscilator, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportuntiies. The upward targets are set at the price of 111.00 and 111.70

Resistance levels:

R1: 110.10

R2: 110.40

R3: 110.90

Support levels:

S1: 109.30

S2: 108.80

S3: 108.50

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for June 08, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1240. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found a broken upward trendline and successful breakout of support. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. Downward targets are set at the prices of 1.1200, 1.1180, and 1.1155.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1290

R2: 1.1330

R3: 1.1375

Support levels:

S1: 1.1210

S2: 1.1170

S3: 1.1130

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD remain bearish below major resistance

Price continues to rise and is now approaching a major resistance level at 1.2984 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal resistance) and we expect to see a strong reaction from this level for a drop towards 1.2886 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing major resistance below the 88% level where we expect a strong drop from.

Sell below 1.2984. Stop loss at 1.3016. Take profit at 1.2886.

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AUD/USD right on major resistance, time to sell

Price is now testing major resistance at 0.7554 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal resistance) and we expect a strong reaction off this level for a drop to at least 0.7490 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below the 93% level and we expect a drop from here.

Correlation analysis: Overall AUD weakness expected today with a drop on AUD/USD and AUD/JPY.

Sell below 0.7554. Stop loss at 0.7588. Take profit at 0.7490.

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Global macro overview for 08/06/2017

Global macro overview for 08/06/2017:

The Crude Oil Inventories data have surprised market participants which resulted in a strong drop in the price of black gold. Crude Oil Inventories showed a rise of 3.3 million barrels against expected 3.5 million barrel drawdown. With such a huge miss, the effect was predictable with Brent plunging -3.60% and WTI collapsing by -4.30% to end the New York session. In this season of the year, the market should experience a seasonal fall in fuel stocks as expected, but these are rising instead. Moreover, since the OPEC production cut agreement in May, oil has now fallen nearly 12%. Cutbacks were maintained at the current level of 1.8 million barrels a day, but in order to limit and control the price drop, the OPEC might start to introduce another measure in form of an increase of the daily production cut. The agreement will not cover Libya and Nigeria, which will not have to limit extraction, and possibly Iran, which may even increase its crude production to 3.8 million barrels per day. In conclusion, if the OPEC would decide to introduce further production cuts, then the prices of oil might fall even deeper and visit the levels of $40 per barrel not seen since July last year.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture on the H4 time frame. After a short-lived rally above the navy trend line towards the technical resistance at the level of $48.24, the price reversed after the data and now is trading back under the trend line around the Fibonacci 78% retracement at the level of $45.52. In a case of a further sell-off, the next support is seen at the level of $43.74.

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Global macro overview for 08/06/2017

Global macro overview for 08/06/2017:

The European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference is one of the most important events of the day. The Interest Rate Decision is scheduled for release at 11:45 am GMT and the Press Conference is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. Market participants expect ECB to leave the interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.00%, together with Deposit Facility Rate (-0.40%) and Marginal Lending Facility (0.25%). The ECB will also present quarterly projections of inflation and gross domestic product. The global investors will pay attention to the press conference, where the focus will be on the normalization of the ultra-loose monetary policy of the bank. The first step in this direction may be to raise the assessment of the risk balance for growth in the Eurozone or to change the wording of forward guidance (long-term monetary policy communication).The market speculates that the ECB will decide to raise the assessment of the risk balance for Eurozone economic growth rate from "negative but improving" to neutral rate today. This would heavily impact the Euro-related currency pairs across the board, resulting in an appreciation of the Euro.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is trading in a relatively narrow range ahead of the ECB event. The upside is being capped by the level of 1.1284 and the downside is being supported by the level of 1.1201. The overall market conditions are overbought and the momentum indicator is pointing to the downside for now.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for June 8, 2017

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for June 8, 2017

Trading plan for 08/06/2017

Trading plan for 08/06/2017:

Chinese and Japanese data disappointed overnight. The disappointment with the macroeconomic data has contributed to the temporary weakness of the Japanese yen, which is currently the leader in the G10 (0.4%). Weakness of the US dollar is not used by its counterparts from Australia (0.0%) and Canada (0.0%). The Pound Sterling (0.0%) is also a relatively stable part of the session, which remains at 1.2960 early in the European session.

On Thursday 8th of June, the event calendar is busy with important macroeconomic data, but there are only two events that really matter today: ECB interest rate decision and press conference and the parliamentary elections in the United Kingdom.

GBP/USD analysis for 08/06/2017:

Since the morning, citizens of Great Britain are due to make a serious decision, taking part in the snap parliamentary election. Although a few dozen days ago the situation seemed to be a fire-sure win of current Prime Minister Theresa May and her Conservative Party, now such an obvious scenario is no longer so certain. According to the latest YouGov poll, the day before the election, the Tories are now leading the Laborers by 7 pp. Currently, conservatives and laborers can count respectively at 42 percent and 35 percent support. Meanwhile, according to a poll conducted by Survation for ITV television, Prime Minister Theresa May's party can count only 1.1 percent advantage over the Labor Party (the study was conducted ahead of Saturday's terrorist attack in London, which killed seven people and wounded 48). Nevertheless, despite the final results, the new government will have the first task of leading the UK through the process of exiting the European Union, as well as responding to the growing threat of terrorist attacks. The first results of the UK parliamentary elections will be available around 11:00 pm GMT and will have a great impact on financial markets.

The volatility of the British Pound movement will depend on the scale of Theresa May's Conservative Party victory and it is all about the number of seats in the UK parliament:

- more than 125 seats - is a fair reflection of what markets are pricing in - very positive for the Pound

- about 100 seats - successful election - positive for the Pound

- less than 100 seats - would be viewed as a slight disappointment - negative/neutral for the Pound

- more than 50 seats - is still enough for the majority, but overall a disappointment - negative/neutral for the Pound

- fewer than 50 seats - would cause more worries regarding a hard Brexit - negative for the Pound

- fewer than 35 seats - no majority in parliament - negative for the Pound

- fewer than 30 seats - would suggest a smooth Brexit scenario - very negative for the Pound

- fewer than 20 seats - compromisation and failure of Conservatives - deep Pound sell-off

In the GBP/USD Daily time frame chart and FTSE100 Daily time frame chart below, there is a visual representation of possible scenarios.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for June 8, 2017

EUR/USD: This pair has moved largely sideways this week, fluctuating between the support line at 1.1200 and the resistance line at 1.1300. There would soon be a break out of the support and resistance lines, which is expected to happen before the end of this week or early next week. That is what would lead to a directional movement, most probably in favor of bears.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair is in a bearish mode, although the market has moved sideways so far this week. The price is now below the resistance level at 0.09650, going towards the support level at 0.09600. Once that support level is breached to the downside, price would be able to target another support level at 0.9550. A serious pullback on the EUR/USD market would make USD/CHF to jump upwards.

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GBP/USD: A short-term bullish signal has been generated on the GBP/USD pair. Price is barely above the accumulation territory at 1.2950, and it may go towards the distribution territory at 1.3000. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they may have an impact on the market.

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USD/JPY: There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the USD/JPY pair. Price has gone down this week to put more emphasis on the bearishness in the market, which started a few weeks ago. The market is currently below the supply level at 109.50, going towards the demand level at 109.00, the immediate target.

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EUR/JPY: This cross pair has dropped 140 pips this week, leading to a bearish outlook on the market, which was well anticipated. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. The market is currently volatile, but further bearish movement is expected.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for June 8, 2017

The Dollar index bounced yesterday as we expected but got rejected at the first important short-term resistance. Yesterday's highs are now very important to the short-term trend. If broken we should expect price to move towards 99.

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Blue line - resistance

Previous support at 97 has turned into resistance. As expected, the index bounced yesterday and back tested it. However the rejection and inability to hold above 97 is a bearish sign that implies at least one more new lower low could be expected. It is not necessary but as long as we trade below 97, short-term trend remains bearish.

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Red line- short-term resistance

Blue lines - bearish channel

In the daily chart, price is in a bearish trend below both tenkan- and kijun-sen. Price is inside a bearish channel and very close to the lower boundary. I expect a strong bounce to come soon that could push the index back towards the upper channel boundary and the daily Kumo (cloud) resistance at 99. There are bullish divergence signs by the RSI and this is a warning for Dollar bears to be cautious and lower their stops.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for June 8, 2017

Gold price is showing reversal signs. It is still too early to tell if the pullback towards $1,250 we expect has started or something of a smaller degree. Important level to watch is at $1,277.

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Gold price has broken below the 4-hour tenkan-sen (red line indicator). This is the first bearish warning. Short-term support by the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) is at $1,277.

If this level is broken, a medium-term top will be in and a correction towards $1,250 will start.

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Black line - resistance

Blue line - support

The weekly candle has broken out of the Kumo (cloud) and this is a very bullish sign. Price is testing important long-term resistance. A pullback towards the weekly cloud is expected before the next leg up that will eventually push price towards $1,400 and higher. I remain longer-term bullish about Gold and I believe bulls will get another opportunity to go long at lower than the current price levels.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 8, 2017

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Wave summary:

We have already seen the expected dip below support at 1.5588 and seen a low at 1.5533. This will likely be enough to complete wave ii/, but a break above minor resistance seen at 1.5746 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.5931 will be needed to confirm that wave ii/ has completed and wave iii/ towards 1.6655 is developing.

R3: 1.5931

R2: 1.5805

R1: 1.5746

Pivot: 1.5650

S1: 1.5574

S2: 1.5533

S3: 1.5480

Trading recommendation:

We missed our buy opportunity at 1.5505 by only 25 pips, but will place a new buy order at 1.5540 or upon a break above 1.5746.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 8, 2017

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Wave summary;

Important support at 122.53 protected the downside for a break above minor resistance seen at 123.55 indicating wave c had completed and wave d, of the expected triangle consolidation, now is unfolding. This should provide a rally higher to 124.63 in the coming days.

Short-term minor support seen at 122.97 should be able to protect the downside for the expected rally higher or a new test of important support at 122.53 will be seen.

R3: 124.63

R2: 124.14

R1: 123.85

Pivot: 123.55

S1: 123.17

S2: 122.96

S3: 122.53

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 123.55 with stop placed at 122.85. Take profit will be placed at 124.50.

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