Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for August 14. A new round of escalation of the trade war between China and the United

EUR / USD

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Tuesday, August 13, ended for the EUR / USD pair with a decrease of 40 bp, which does not specify the current wave counting. As before, the euro-dollar pair remains within the framework of constructing the proposed wave b as part of at least a 3-wave upward trend section. An obstacle to the construction of a wave c can only be a news background that supports the US currency with enviable regularity. For example, yesterday in America, the inflation report for July was higher, which turned out to be higher than the expectations of the foreign exchange market. And today, it became known that Donald Trump "relented" on China and postponed the introduction of duties for $ 300 billion from September 1 to December 15. It should be understood that Trump now needs to think not only about the trade war with China, but also about the voters, because new presidential elections are coming already in 2020, and Trump really wants to be re-elected for a second term. However, preliminary polls and studies show that Trump is unlikely to win the presidential race. Accordingly, the current president of America should think about how to increase his political rating. The rise in the price of goods from China that are in demand in America will be negatively perceived by the electorate. Therefore, under the auspices of caring for the population on the eve of the Christmas holidays (which are still a few months away), Trump has postponed the introduction of regular duties.

Purchase goals:

1.1264 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.1322 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.1027 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair continues to build the upward trend section. Thus, I recommend buying a pair with targets near the calculated levels of 1.1264 and 1.1322, which is equal to 61.8% and 76.4% according to Fibonacci signal, and based on the MACD signal upwards, counting on the construction of the ascending wave s.

GBP / USD

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On August 13, GBP / USD pair lost several base points. A rather sluggish departure of the pound-dollar quotes from the reached minimums indicates the willingness of the foreign exchange market to continue to get rid of the pound further. If this is true, then the decline in the instrument will continue with targets located near the Fibonacci level of 423.6%. The wave e, in this case, will take an even more complex form. The news background continues to support precisely the American currency, creating strong pressure on the British currency. Thus, wave marking for a long time already implies the completion of the bearish trend. However, markets continue to get rid of the pound, which leads to a regular complication of the downward set of waves.

Sales goals:

1.2056 - 323.6% Fibonacci

1.1830 - 423.6% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2783 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The downward section of the trend became more complicated, and the pound-dollar pair made a successful attempt to break through the 323.6% Fibonacci level. Despite the fact that the wave e again looks complete, it can take an even more complex form. Thus, with the new MACD signal down, I recommend selling a pair with targets near the 1.1830 mark, which corresponds to 423.6% Fibonacci.

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Burning forecast for GBP/USD on 08/14/2019 and trading recommendation

Macroeconomic reports on Tuesday triggered the US dollar well, which can only be said about inflation in the United States, where it accelerated to 1.8%, with a forecast of 1.7%, which is a good step in favor of the Fed's expectations. In turn, data on the UK had once again upset market participants, and so the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% for the first time since February.

Today is no less interesting day in terms of news, Britain will publish data on inflation, where they forecast a slowdown from 2.0% to 1.9%. It is worth considering such a moment that the pound has recently reacted sluggishly to macroeconomic statistics, both its own and third-party, the main driver is the Brexit question and the spontaneous information background, thereby maintaining pressure on the pound.

Great Britain 8:30 London time. - Annual inflation rate: Prev 2.0% ----> Prog. 1.9%

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The GBP/USD pair formed a pullback from the psychological level of 1.2000, towards the previously passed accumulation of 1.2100, where it felt periodic resistance above itself and went into the process of restoring downward interest. In this case, any correction is a pullback, it is a chance for bears to accumulate short positions at a more attractive price, since nothing good will come to Britain in the near future. Looking at the trading chart in general terms, we see that the main downward trend was and still remains, the point of temporary support is the psychological level of 1.2000.

It is likely to assume that the quotation will again attempt to come closer to the control point in the face of the level of 1.2000, where a deviation of +/- 30 points is possible. Traders, in turn, are waiting for a clear price consolidation below the level for the most accurate entry into the market.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

  • We consider long positions if the stopping process is delayed, which is expressed as the price returns to the recent accumulation of 1.2100-2150-1.2200. In this case, the entry is considered higher than 1.2110.
  • We consider short positions in case the price clearly consolidates below 1.1970, with the prospect of a move to 1.1900-1.1850.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that, in general terms, indicators are prone to further decline, there is a variable interest only in the minute periods - neutral/upward. In the event of delaying the amplitude fluctuation, indicators for smaller periods can alternately slide.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on August 14, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, the price may begin a roll back upward movement, with the first goal 1.2087 - the resistance line (red bold line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, the price may begin a roll back upward movement, with the first goal 1.2087 - the resistance line (red bold line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on August 14, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, we expect an upward movement, with the target 1.1232 - the upper fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, we expect an upward movement, with the target of 1.1232 - the upper fractal (after working out the news at 6.00 Universal time).

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Control zones for USD/CAD pair on 08/14/19

Yesterday's sales from 1/2 WCZ of 1.3291-1.3283 must be broken even since the absorption of the latest growth will lead to the cancellation of the downward movement. Holding a short position is necessary until the weekly control zone of 1.3168-1.3151. The test of this zone will allow to close most of the sales and leave the rest in case of continued medium-term fall of the pair.

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A local accumulation zone is formed in the past three days, where extrema are constantly tested. This fact allows you to work from the boundaries of this range in the formation of the pattern of "false breakdown".

An alternative growth model will become relevant in case of absorption of more than 50% of yesterday's fall. This will allow talking about the repeated test of 1/2 WCZ, where the fate of the downward impulse will again be decided. Closing today's trading above 1.3291 will completely cancel the downward option for trading.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 14/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The famous American boxer Mike Tyson leads a new entertainment platform powered by Blockchain for a new generation of players.

On August 13, VentureBeat announced that the new venture - called "Fight to Fame" - will use Blockchain technology to support a new, multi-faceted platform that aims to launch aspiring players to success via social media, reality TV, film, games, and live matches establishments.

While Tyson will be the founder and chairman of the Fight to Fame sports and competition committee, the project also counts Farzam Kamalabadi as his CEO, two-time Emmy Award winner Tim Smithe, and Stan Larimer as an expert on cryptocurrency and Blockchain.

"As an experienced player, I want to mentor future generations, especially future action stars, and ensure that there is a path to professional success and fair compensation. Building a global platform for them is my passion" - says Tyson.

To increase engagement and to benefit from the project for both competitors, fans and the company, the economy of fan tokens will be launched.

Kamalbadi and Smithe have noticed that for industry titans like the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), players often leave with only 15% after charging all fees.

More details about the planned ICO Fight to Fame will be provided in the future; tokens apparently grant plant and voting rights to holders and form part of the Blockchain-based economy transparent to the entire ecosystem.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has broken out of the descending channel around the level of $208.50 and now is trying to continue the rally higher towards the level of $221.50, which is the technical resistance. The low was made at the level of $196.98 and it was labeled as wave (c) of the wave (2) of higher degree, which indicated, the market might be ready to continue the trend. In order to do this, the price action must be more impulsive and move towards the nearest technical resistance and break through it. Otherwise, the corrective move to the downside will evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern. So far there is no sign of bullish engagement in order to regain control of the market price and the move up is starting to look like a failure. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $205.77.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $274.14

WR2 - $256.36

WR1 - $233.10

Weekly Pivot - $214.72

WS1 - $193.28

WS2 - $173.99

WS3 - $150.66

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the bullish momentum.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 14/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

According to a report published today, the United Nations is investigating 35 cyberattacks by North Korea in 17 countries. This information follows the leaked summary of the report last week, stating that the country has hacked $ 2 billion to finance armament programs so far. Most of the incidents studied were carried out using one of the three main attack vectors.

South Korea is by far the favorite target, falling victim to the 10 attacks listed in the report, India is in second place - there were three attacks there. The incidents to be investigated took place in the countries of Africa, Central and South America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

Some of the most daring hacks concerned the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) system. In one case, the group recruited a Chilean interbank employee through LinkedIn. Another hack installed malware in an ATM system across the country, resulting in 10,000 fraudulent cash withdrawals in 20 countries.

Cryptocurrency exchanges and users are also popular target vectors. The South Korean Stock Exchange, Bithumb has been attacked at least four times. After the 2018 attack on the unnamed stock exchange, the stolen funds "were transferred through at least 5,000 separate transactions and forwarded to many countries before the final conversion."

The last method of raising funds is mining cryptocurrencies, often through crypto-jacking. This includes installing malware on the computer, which then uses system resources to mine cryptocurrency on behalf of the attacker. The UN has analyzed one part of malware designed for mining-oriented privacy Monero altcoin and sending influence to servers at Kim Il-Sung University in Pyongyang.

Technical Market Overview:

The local technical support at the level of $11,027 at the BTC/USD pair has been violated as the price made another lower low at the level of $10,413. This means the Bullish Flag pattern has been made just bigger as the wave (c) of the wave 2 is getting extended towards the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $10,277. Please notice, that the wave 2 might evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern, so patience is needed while keeping an eye on the wave development.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $13,583

WR2 - $12,879

WR1 - $12,118

Weekly Pivot - $11,389

WS1 - $10,550

WS2 - $9,816

WS3 - $9,007

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 14/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The holiday season is in and the volatility is on the lows as well as the most of traders are away from computers. The GBP/USD pair has broken out of the narrow consolidation zone to the downside and made a local low at the level of 1.2014. So far no new local low was made and the price bounced higher as the bulls are trying to defend the support. The bears have managed to push the price towards the key long-term technical support located at the level of 1.1988 and this level is very important. The bulls might defend the support, but if the level is clearly violated without a fight, then the price will extend the drop much lower, so there must be some bullish reaction on this level, otherwise, the damage will be even worse.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2303

WR2 - 1.2249

WR1 - 1.2110

Weekly Pivot - 1.2066

WS1 - 1.1921

WS2 - 1.1875

WS3 - 1.1728

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. Please keep an eye on the key technical support located at the level of 1.1988, some kind of bounce might be expected after this level is hit.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 14/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The Bullish Flag price pattern is clearly visible on the H4 timeframe chart at the EUR/USD pair and the market is still developing on a neutral momentum so far. The flag is the trend continuation pattern, so if the price will break out to the upside, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1250 and then 1.1345. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1167 and it can not be violated until the breakout occurs. Please notice that this time of the year the volatility might get limited due to the summer season, so it might take a while to make a breakout in this market conditions. The larget timeframe trend remains bearish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1413

WR2 - 1.1325

WR1 - 1.1264

Weekly Pivot - 1.1187

WS1 - 1.1117

WS2 - 1.1041

WS3 - 1.0978

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is completed or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon.

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Control zones NZDUSD 08/14/19

To continue the growth and retest the weekly control zone of 0.6506-0.6494, it is enough to keep the price above the level of 0.6430. Yesterday's purchases from WCZ 1/2 0.6436-0.6430 must be transferred to breakeven, as today's decline may lead to a change in dynamics. It is important to understand that the downward movement is a medium-term impulse, so the probability of its continuation is still above 70%.

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Work within the framework of the flat implies searching for deals at the boundaries of the range, which are very clearly visible at the levels of opening and closing of daily trading for the last five days.

An alternative model for continuing the medium-term decline will be developed if the closure of today's US session occurs below the level of 0.6430. This will open the way for a further fall to a monthly low. The probability of implementing this model is above 50%, so it must be taken into account when building a trading plan.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Trading plan for EURUSD for August 14, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The sideways action continues for EURUSD, probably into its last leg before breaking out towards 1.1250/60 levels. We have also presented the RSI on 4H chart today which is locating just above the 40 mark. This is also a confirmation of another potential push higher before rolling over. The recent counter trend rally that began from 1.1020 levels might be looking to produce an A-B-C (not labelled here) and push through the 1.1250/60 levels which is also Fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the previous drop between 1.1412 and 1.1020 levels respectively. A conservative trading strategy could be to remain flat for now and look to go short on rallies towards 1.1250/60 levels. Immediate price support is just below 1.1150 levels while resistance is seen at 1.1285 levels respectively. We shall be looking for a bearish reaction around 1.1250/60 levels to turn lower again.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders remain long, stop below 1.1160, target is 1.1250/60

Conservative traders remain flat, look to sell higher around 1.1250/60

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for August 14 - 2019

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We have seen a rally of the 126.75 low. However, we still need a clear break above minor resistance at 129.31 and more importantly, a break above resistance at 130.06. At present, the pair is building a bottom.

So, for now, we should expect minor support at 127.70 that can protect the downside for another test of minor resistance at 129.31 and a break above should open the upside for a firm test of resistance at 130.06.

Only an unexpected break back below support at 126.78 will spoil bullish count once again.

R3: 130.06

R2: 129.64

R1: 129.31

Pivot: 128.75

S1: 128.00

S2: 127.70

S3: 127.33

Trading recommendation:

We bought GBP at 127.80 and we have placed our stop at 126.70

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 14 - 2019

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We have seen a rally out of the 117.49 low. Now the rally is only in three waves. We will see minor support in the 118.41 - 118.65 area hold for another rally above 119.59 as this will leave us with a small five wave rally of the 117.50 low.

In the short-term, a break above minor resistance at 119.28 will lead to the expected rally above 119.59 towards at least 119.88 and possibly higher.

Only an unexpected break back below support at 117.67 will spoil our bullish count once again.

R3: 119.88

R2: 119.59

R1: 119.28

Pivot: 118.73

S1: 118.65

S2: 118.41

S3: 118.04

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 118.40 and we have placed our stop at 117.40.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 14, 2019

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro attacked the MACD line for the sixth time on the daily chart and closed the day with a black candle at 41 points. Taking into account that this candle turned out to be the largest for this week of consolidation, there is a possibility that the price consolidation below the price channel line is already happening – today. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator was able to enter the zone of negative numbers.

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On a four-hour chart, the price stopped on the MACD line, trying to gain a foothold below it. The Marlin oscillator is in a falling position in the negative zone. The nearest goal of 1.1155 is likely to be overcome today. After consolidating the price below the level, we expect a further decline to 1.1074 - the Fibonacci level of 123.6%.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, August 14, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, Industrial Production m/m, Flash GDP q/q, Flash Employment Change q/q, French Final CPI m/m, and German Prelim GDP q/q. The US will also publish the economic data such as Crude Oil Inventories, Mortgage Delinquencies, and Import Prices m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1230. Strong Resistance: 1.1224. Original Resistance: 1.1213. Inner Sell Area: 1.1202. Target Inner Area: 1.1176. Inner Buy Area: 1.1150. Original Support: 1.1139. Strong Support: 1.1128. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1122. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, August 14, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Core Machinery Orders m/m and the US will publish some economic data such as Crude Oil Inventories, Mortgage Delinquencies, and Import Prices m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3 : 106.97. Resistance. 2: 106.77. Resistance. 1: 106.56. Support. 1: 106.28. Support. 2: 106.08. Support. 3: 105.87. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on August 14, 2019

GBP/USD

The British pound fell 18 points yesterday. Labor data came out mixed - the number of applications for unemployment benefits in June fell from 31.4 thousand (revised from 38.0 thousand) to 28.0 thousand, the unemployment rate increased from 3.8% to 3.9%. Nevertheless, on the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator has grown, having formed a full convergence. This is the main sign of a possible deepening of the correction. Here, the first target will be the Fibonacci level of 238.2% at the price of 1.2154.

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On a four-hour chart, the price reversed from the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator is kept in the negative trend zone. To strengthen the downward trend, the price should gain strength in the target range of 1.1986-1.2032, since below it the nearest target will be the Fibonacci reaction level of 314.0% at the price of 1.1763. This is our main forecast scenario.

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EUR/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

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EURUSD is approaching our first support at 1.1164 where we might be seeing a bounce above this level.

Entry: 1.1164

Why it's good : Horizontal overlap support, 100%, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 1.1114

Why it's good : horizontal overlap support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 1.1234

Why it's good: horizontal swing high resistance

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NZD/USD approaching resistance, potential reversal

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Price approaching its resistance where a reversal could occur.

Entry: 0.6516

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

Take Profit : 0.6397

Why it's good: Horizontal swing low support

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USD/JPY reversing off 1st resistance, further bounce!

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USDJPY is reversing off 1st resistance at 106.71, further drop could occur!

Entry :106.71

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 105.08

Why it's good : Horizontal swing low support

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on August 14, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar gained 46 points yesterday, gaining a foothold over the correction level of 23.6%. The price opened the target to 0.6832 with the correction level of 38.2%, which coincides with the low of June 18. At least three equal-sized scenarios are currently opened before the price.

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First, an increase to 0.6832 and a reversal to the area of 0.6737/50 is likely to happen. In this scenario, convergence on the Marlin oscillator is formed on a four-hour chart. Second, the price overcoming the first target and growing to the next target area of 0.6890 then to the point of convergence of the Fibonacci level of 50.0%, where two lines of price channels and the indicator line of MACD are found. The third scenario is a reversal down from current levels to the target range of 0.6737 / 50. Moreover, there can be both an increase to 0.6832 from this range and overcoming with a decrease to 0.6678 towards the area of convergence of the trend line of the falling price channel and the Fibonacci level of 0.0%.

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The multiplicity of such scenarios is currently indicated by Marlin oscillators on the daily and four-hour charts. In the current situation they develop in some isolation from the price trend and Marlin is one of the leading indicators in its predicted purpose.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on August 14

Forecast for August 14:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1284, 1.1259, 1.1234, 1.1162, 1.1145 and 1.1120. Here, the price has entered an equilibrium state. For the continuation of the movement to the top, it is necessary to create a local structure. The continuation of the upward trend is possible after the breakdown of the level of 1.1234. In this case, the target is 1.1259. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1284. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.1162 - 1.1145. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the goal is 1.1120. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1234 Take profit: 1.1258

Buy 1.1261 Take profit: 1.1284

Sell: 1.1162 Take profit: 1.1146

Sell: 1.1144 Take profit: 1.1122

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2142, 1.2099, 1.2069, 1.2014, 1.1952, 1.1908 and 1.1850. Here, we follow the downward cycle of July 31. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2014. In this case, the target is 1.1952. Meanwhile, there is a short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation in the range of 1.1952 - 1.1908. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1850. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2069 - 1.2099. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.2142. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2069 Take profit: 1.2097

Buy: 1.2100 Take profit: 1.2140

Sell: 1.2012 Take profit: 1.1954

Sell: 1.1950 Take profit: 1.1910

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9854, 0.9816, 0.9797, 0.9768, 0.9706, 0.9682, 0.9641, 0.9604 and 0.9536. Here, we follow the medium-term downward structure from August 1. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone and forms the potential for the top. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range of 0.9706 - 0.9682. In this case, the target is 0.9641. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.9641 - 0.9604. The breakdown of the level of 0.9604 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the potential target is 0.9536.

Departure for correction is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9768. Here, the first goal is 0.9797. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9797 - 0.9816. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the target is 0.9854.

The main trend is the descending structure of August 1, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9768 Take profit: 0.9797

Buy : 0.9818 Take profit: 0.9852

Sell: 0.9680 Take profit: 0.9641

Sell: 0.9638 Take profit: 0.9605

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.62, 108.14, 107.45, 106.91, 106.35, 105.94, 105.64 and 105.01. Here, the price forms the potential for the upward cycle of August 12. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.91. In this case, the target is 107.45, and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 107.45 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 108.14. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.62. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

A short-term downward movement is possibly after the breakdown of the level of 106.35. In this case, the target is 105.94. The range of 105.94 - 105.64 is a key support for the upward structure. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the target is 105.01.

The main trend: building potential for the top of August 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 106.91 Take profit: 107.43

Buy : 107.47 Take profit: 108.14

Sell: 106.35 Take profit: 105.95

Sell: 105.62 Take profit: 105.04

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3444, 1.3393, 1.3354, 1.3329, 1.3280, 1.3212, 1.3175 and 1.3102. Here, the price is in deep correction from the upward structure on July 31 and forms the potential for the downward movement from August 7. The breakdown of the level of 1.3212 will lead to the formation of expressed initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the potential target is 1.3175. Price consolidation is near this level. The continuation of the movement to the top is possible after the breakdown of the level of 1.3280. In this case, the first target is 1.3329. Consolidation is in the range of 1.3329 - 1.3354. The breakdown of the level of 1.3355 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3393.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of July 31, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3280 Take profit: 1.3329

Buy : 1.3355 Take profit: 1.3392

Sell: 1.3212 Take profit: 1.3178

Sell: 1.3173 Take profit: 1.3105

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6967, 0.6922, 0.6902, 0.6869, 0.6843, 0.6803, 0.6762, 0.6733 and 0.6675. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of August 7. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6803. In this case, the first target is 0.6843. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6843 - 0.6869. The breakdown of the level of 0.6870 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.6902. Consolidation is in the range of 0.6902 - 0.6922. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6967. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The level of 0.6762 is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to a movement to the level of 0.6733. This level is a key resistance for the subsequent development of a downward trend.

The main trend is the ascending structure of August 7

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6805 Take profit: 0.6840

Buy: 0.6844 Take profit: 0.6867

Sell : 0.6760 Take profit : 0.6735

Sell: 0.6730 Take profit: 0.6680

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.29, 120.82, 120.08, 119.51, 118.83, 118.45, 117.94 and 117.48. Here, the price forms the potential for the upward cycle of August 12. The continuation of the development of the ascending structure is expected after the breakdown of the level of 119.51. In this case, the goal is 120.08, and near this level is a price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 120.10 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 120.82. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 121.29. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 118.83 - 118.45. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. The goal here is 117.94. This level is the key support for the ascending structure of August 12.

The main trend is building potential for the top of August 12th.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.51 Take profit: 120.05

Buy: 120.10 Take profit: 120.80

Sell: 118.81 Take profit: 118.45

Sell: 118.42 Take profit: 117.95

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 131.23, 130.57, 129.66, 127.94, 127.33, 126.48 and 125.57. Here, the price forms a pronounced potential for the development of the upward cycle of August 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 129.00 - 129.66. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 130.57. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 131.23. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 127.94 - 127.33. The breakdown of the latter value will favor the development of a downward structure. Here, the first goal is 126.48. As a potential value, we consider the level of 125.57.

The main trend is building potential for the top of August 12th.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.00 Take profit: 129.64

Buy: 129.67 Take profit: 130.55

Sell: 127.94 Take profit: 127.35

Sell: 127.30 Take profit: 126.50

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Complex euro or why the euro does not want to fall

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The EU has published a series of data, from which it became clear that consumer prices in Germany unexpectedly rose in July. This slight acceleration, hopefully, will not affect market expectations regarding a reduction in the ECB deposit rate, as well as measures to further mitigate monetary policy.

The European Central Bank made it clear in July that it was ready to lower short-term interest rates and restart a large-scale securities purchase program. In a statement following the meeting, financiers focused on the weakening economy of the region, and also expressed concern about global negative factors - trade conflicts and Brexit.

The next meeting of the ECB will be held on September 12. An impressive package of measures is expected to be taken that day, including a 0.25% rate cut and a restart of the quantitative easing program. This puts pressure on both the single currency and the EUR/USD pair. At the same time, several diverse factors are currently operating on the financial markets.

On the one hand, investors are worried about a new round of trade conflict between Beijing and Washington. The introduction of new import duties on Chinese goods and the "cross" put on Friday by D. Trump at the close of a trade deal increase the risks of a stronger slowdown in the global economy. On the other hand, the US economy looks quite stable when compared with other world giants, and continues to grow. Therefore, investments in US assets and the dollar continue to flow.

The owner of the White House constantly criticizes the Fed for refusing to follow his lead in the matter of rate adjustment. However, easing monetary policy is unlikely to fulfill D. Trump's desire, significantly weakening the dollar's position.

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"Hard" Brexit will nevertheless take place in late October. Political and economic disagreements within the EU are growing: the Italian League is against the EU fiscal policy and demands an increase in the country's budget deficit, which contradicts EU rules. Do not discount the sluggish processes with regard to the EU in Greece and Spain, as well as the accelerating devaluation of national currencies in some states. Three central banks - India, Thailand, New Zealand - have cut rates. All these are underestimated risks, which only add a portion of negativity to the mood of the business.

Given global geopolitical and economic problems, investors will prefer safe havens and the dollar. So, the shortest position on the EUR/USD pair will serve as the most profitable long-term strategy.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com