EUR/NZD analysis for December 26, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD was trading downward. The price has tested the level of 1.5711 in a volume below the average. We may see a potential testing of the level of 1.5675-1.565 (swing low like support). Selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky since we can observe supply in a low volume. We are waiting for a larger activity on the market and stronger price action. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities on the lows. Any larger demand may confirm a further bullish phase.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5808


R2: 1.5825


R3: 1.5854


Support levels:


S1: 1.5751


S2: 1.5734


S3: 1.5706


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling the EUR/NZD pair since we can observe supply in a low volume


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Gold analysis for December 26, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upward. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,198.92 in a high volume. Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.172.00 has been held successfully, which caused price to start with an upward movement. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe demand in an ultra high volume (buying climax). My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities near the lows. According to the daily time frame, the price went from neutral to bullish. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,196.00 (currently on the test) and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,212.00.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,178.94


R2: 1,180.87


R3: 1,182.84


Support levels:


S1: 1,175.04


S2: 1,173.07


S3: 1,171.14


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).


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#USDX Technical analysis for December 26, 2014

The Dollar index remains in an up trend for the short-term as long as it trades above 89.60. The index continues to make higher highs and higher lows. The new upward breakout keeps both short- and long-term trend bullish with 91 as 1st target.


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Green line = support


The dollar index has broken below the tenkan-sen at 89.96 on the 4-hour chart. This implies that unless we break again above it, we could see a pullback towards the kijun-sen and the green line support at the 89.70-89.60 area. Breaking below that support area will probably push the index towards the Ichimoku cloud support.


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The weekly chart of the Dollar index remains fully bullish with 91 target given by the bullish flag pattern we mentioned some time ago. The tenkan-sen support has risen towards last weeks lows which are now very important for the medium-term trend. If we break below these lows, we should expect the Dollar index to move lower towards 85-84 or even 81-82. Until then, I remain bullish with 91 as 1st target.


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Gold Technical analysis for December 26, 2014

Gold price remains in a down trend both in the short- and long-term. Currently, price is above important weekly support at $1,185. Today, we see Gold price testing important short-term resistance and this is an opportunity to sell with $1,220 as stop.


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Green line = support


Blue horizontal line = H&S neckline


Gold price has managed to move back above the H&S neckline and has also broken above the kijun-sen resistance at $1,187. This results to a push towards the Ichimoku cloud resistance at $1,200. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud. Trend remains bearish. Price is now close to important resistance and this is a good opportunity to sell.


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Blue line = support


Gold price in the weekly chart remains in an indecisive price range between $1,240-$1,180. Weekly support is at $1,180 and resistance at $1,240. The kijun-sen support at $1,180 if broken will give a weekly sell signal that will push prices towards $1,130 lows. Breaking above weekly resistance at $1,240 will give a buy signal with the $1,290 target.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 26, 2014

General overview 26/12/2014 10:30 CET


There are two possible scenarios for the current wave progression. The main scenario indicates a completed corrective structure in wave 2 red and a possible start of the impulsive wave development to the upside. The alternative scenario suggests a more complex structure in wave 2 red that is still developing to the downside and the recent wave progression is a wave alt:XX brown of the overall corrective structure. That means, there is one more wave to the downside missing to complete this structure, and then an impulsive rally up is anticipated. The key level for both scenarios is at the level of 148.23 as any breakout higher favors main scenario, and any failure there favors the alternative scenario .


Support/ Resistance:


149.77 - Swing High


149.63 - WR2


148.23 - Bullish Zone Level


147.74 - WR1


147.11 - Intraday Resistance


146.34 - Weekly Pivot


145.70 - Technical Support


144.98 - Intraday Support


Trading recommendations:


As long as the golden trend line is not broken, the bias is bullish, and traders should consider opening buy orders only. The SL orders still should be placed below the 146.34 level, and TP orders should be placed at the level of 148.23. Please notice the liquidity is getting low, and the market moves might get very sharp and sudden in either direction.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 26, 2014

General overview 26/12/2014 10:20 CET


The market moves are currently very limited as the last wave down in complex corrective cycle is in progression. The preferred count favors one more wave to the downside to complete the triangle pattern and then an impulsive rally to the upside, targeting the levels 1.1672 and then 1.1733. Only a breakout below the level of 1.1500 would invalidate this scenario. Please notice that the mid- and longer-term bias are bullish, and new highs are expected.


Support/ Resistance:


1.1733 - WR2


1.1672 - WR1


1.1645 - Intraday Resistance


1.1610 - Weekly Pivot


1.1558 - Intraday Support


1.1546 - WS1


1.1500 - Technical Support


Trading recommendations:


The corrective cycle in wave Y brown has not been completed yet as there is one more wave missing to the downside. The Traders should consider opening only buy stop orders from the level of 1.1631 with SL below the level of 1.1558 and TP at the level of 1.1672 with a possible extension upside to the level of 1.1733.


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Daily analysis of USDX for December 26, 2014

The USDX has found resistance at the 90.16 level. During the meeting of December 24, this instrument formed a fractal next to that area. Therefore, the USDX could conduct a breakout at that level to try to achieve the bullish trend line at the level of 91.10. On the H4 chart, we can see that this instrument is alive in the bullish outlook, although the MACD indicator is moving into the negative territory.


H4chart's resistance levels: 90.16 / 91.10


H4chart's support levels: 89.55 / 89.05


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On the H1 chart, the USDX has made a retracement below the resistance level of 90.01. For now, this instrument is trying to gain bullish momentum to try to consolidate back above that area and go up to the level of 90.26 in the short term . For now, the USDX remains above the 200-day moving average.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 90.01 / 90.26


H1 chart's support levels: 89.76 / 89.51


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 90.01, take profit is at 90.26, and stop loss is at 89.76.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 26, 2014

On the H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair is trying to consolidate back above the support level of 1.5541 and next to the current levels. This pair has formed a fractal, which has allowed the GBP/USD pair to form a bearish pattern to continue falling. However, GBP/USD may perform a retracement until the resistance level of 1.5589. The MACD indicator is moving into the positive territory.


H4 chart's resistance levels: 1.5589 / 1.5698


H4chart's support levels: 1.5541 / 1.5512


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During the meeting of December 24, GBP/USD made a breakout at the level of 1.5534, because this pair is trying to climb to the resistance level of 1.5590 in the short term. For now, the bearish bias still remains intact and the GBP/USD pair could try to consolidate back below the 1.5534 level to strengthen the bearish road. The MACD indicator is entering the overbought area.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5590 / 1.5632


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5534 / 1.5501


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5534, take profit is at 1.5501, and stop loss is at 1.5568.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 26, 2014

EUR/USD: The markets are not currently active. There are also no strong fundamental figures coming out today, but it is very interesting to note the current situation of the major pairs before momentum returns to the markets. The EUR/USD pair is on a bearish note and price could continue going further downwards next week.


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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair is now consolidating in the context of an uptrend, being above the support level at 0.9850. The ultimate target remains at the resistance level of 0.9900, and it could even be breached to the upside.


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GBP/USD: This is a weak market and it could continue its weakness. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and the price is below the distribution territory at 1.5600, which should act as a serious barrier to the bulls’ interest. From the current position, the price may dive further, reaching the accumulation territory at 1.5500 again. This accumulation territory has once been tested this week.


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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument is bullish and it ought to continue as such. The price is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. The bullish outlook is very strong and there is a high probability that when momentum returns to the market, it would help push the price further upwards. The ultimate target is at the supply level at 121.00.


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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair is currently in a precarious situation; for the price is now between the supply zone at 147.00 and the demand zone at 146.00. It is either the price breaks above the supply zone upwards or it breaks below the demand zone downwards. However, a break above the supply zone at 147.00 is more likely.


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 26, 2014

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Overview:



  • According to the previous events, the price of the GBP/USD pair will probably move between the levels of 1.5590 and 1.5511. The resistance has already set at the level of 1.5600 which coincides with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. Additionally, it should be noted that if the trend is ascending, then the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend. Therefore, it will be of the insight to sell in this area (1.5600) with the first target at 1.5520 in order to try to break the weekly support one, then the price will be able to continue in a downtrend towards 1.5485 (a double bottom is going to be formed at the level of 1.5485 on H1 chart). However, the stop loss should be placed above the resistance of 1.5600.


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Intraday technical levels :


Date: 26/12/2014


Pair: EUR/USD



  • R3: 1.5712

  • R2: 1.5660

  • R1: 1.5589

  • PP: 1.5537

  • S1: 1.5466

  • S2: 1.5414

  • S3: 1.5343


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 26, 2014

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Overview :



  • The EUR/USD pair broke major resistance at 1.2339 this week. Also, the pivot point is calculated at 1.2339 and the pair has been falling from this area for three days. Therefore, it will probably start a downside movement at this area and recover again. So, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the level of 1.2339 or 1.2323 (23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels on H4 chart), for that it will be a good sign to sell at this spot with the first target of 1.2164 (the double bottom), and continue towards 1.2105 in order to test the support one. On the other hand, if a break of 1.2340 happens, then it will be a good location for placing stop loss.


Trading recommendations :



  • In the long term, the price of EUR/USD pair is still moving between 1.2320 and 1.2155. But, it should be noted that the price has set below the resistance since the 22nd of December, 2014. Hence, below the level of 1.2339 (resistance), look for further downside with the 1.2164 and 1.2105 targets.


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