Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on January 13

Economic calendar (Universal time)

The main attention of today's economic calendar is focused on statistics from the UK and the publication of which is expected at 9:30 UTC+00.

EUR / USD

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On Friday, the pair failed to stop under important weekly support. As a result, braking was developed and there was a formation of rebound from the levels of the weekly cross. With the opening of the week of support, they regrouped a bit and their location is now as follows: the current center of gravity and key ongoing support are located at 1.1109-16 (weekly Tenkan + weekly Fibo Kijun + daily Fibo Kijun), if they are broken through, the following lowering tasks will be associated with the breakdown of the daily cloud and the elimination of the weekly dead cross 1.1065 - 22 (daily cloud + weekly Kijun + weekly Fibo Kijun). At the same time, resistances and the nearest reference points for completing the current increase today are 1.1140-44 (daily Kijun + monthly Tenkan) and 1.1162 (daily Tenkan + Fibo Kijun).

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On H1, the key resistance is currently located at 1.1138 (weekly long-term trend + R1). A breakdown of the level will change the current balance of forces in the lower halves. The following upward milestones will be 1.1155 (R2) - 1.1180 (R3) within the day. Meanwhile, the nearest support now is the central Pivot level (1.1111). Consolidating below which can return full bearish activity. Other intraday supports are the classic Pivot levels S1 (1.1092) - S2 (1.1067) - S3 (1.1048).

GBP / USD

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Last week, the promotion players were unable to oppose anything to the opponent. Nevertheless, it must be taken into account that the players on the downside also failed to achieve any result. Thus, uncertainty and meditation continue to dominate. As of now, bears are trying to push the situation by updating and breaking the minimum of the last week (1.302) in order to regain the prospects for continued decline (daily + weekly cloud + other support levels 1.2957 - 1.2920 - 1.2885 - 1.2827 - 1.2736). However, another failure in this direction will lead the pair to the struggle for the daily advantage (daily cross 1.3148 - 1.3209 - 1.3281) again, strengthened by the weekly short-term (1.3168) and monthly medium-term (1.3167) trends.

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At the moment, the initiative and the main advantages belong to the players on the downside in the lower halves. The only weakening factor is being in the correction zone, updating the minimum (1.3012) will completely restore the downward trend and the advantages of the players to decline. On the other hand, the following intraday supports are located at 1.3201 (S2) and 1.2978 (S3). In turn, overcoming the key references will change the current balance of forces. This situation can be noted at 1.3065 (central Pivot-level of the day) and 1.3101 (weekly long-term trend). Consolidation above will open up new perspectives and require a new assessment.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 13/01/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook, said the digital world needs supervision, listing government regulations as a potential solution, and calling community self-governance "another, and maybe even a better way."

"One of the main questions for the next decade is: how should we manage the large new digital communities that the internet has enabled," said Zuckerberg in a Facebook post.

In a rather long post on his social media page, Zuckerberg described his goals for the coming decade in detail, detailing several topics, including digital management - an area that also applies to the digital ecosystem in cryptographic space.

Zuckerberg pointed to social media operations, including Facebook, basically saying that an ecosystem cannot exist without compromising on ideals.

"As between freedom of expression and security, between privacy and law enforcement, or between creating open systems and blocking data and access. It is rare that there is always a" right "answer, and in many cases, it is just as important that decisions are made in a way that seems legitimate to the community. From this perspective, I don't think that private companies are making so many important decisions about fundamental democratic values, "he said.

Technical Market Overview:

During the weekend, the ETH/USD pair has made another rally towards the swing high located at the level of $146.94 but did not broke through. The bears have managed to push the price lower towards the level of $141.00 and this is where the Ethereum is trading in during the early Monday hours. The Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern might be responsible for creating the Double Top price reversal formation, so all the bulls must now keep an eye on the next market move. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $139.90 and $138.10.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $163.70

WR2 - $155.20

WR1 - $149.53

Weekly Pivot - $140.92

WS1 - $136.16

WS2 - $127.09

WS3 - $122.67

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. There is a possibility that the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Overview of GBP/USD pair on January 13. UK's GDP and industrial production could cause a new decline for the pound today.

4-hour time frame

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - up.

The lower linear regression channel: downward direction.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -125.3771

The British pound corrected to the moving average line again at the end of last week, but according to the current trend, it still completed the flat and rebounded from the movable and resumed the downward movement. Thus, we believe that there now are no visible obstacles to the resumption of a downward trend, the potential of which is huge. We still believe that the pound is in the "debt repayment" phase, therefore, it is able to renew multi-year lows this year and fall to $ 1.25 over the next month. The general fundamental background still remains in favor of the dollar despite the insufficiently strong reports on wages and Nonpharms in the States, as well as the weak ISM index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, since in the UK everything is much worse. It can be recalled that the Bank of England is preparing to lower its key rate, the UK economy continues to lose money due to Brexit and in any case will continue to lose it during 2020. Thus, there are much more factors for the further decline of the pound than for the opposite scenario.

On the first trading day of the week, there will be a lot of interesting and important publications for the GBP/USD pair. All of them will be released in the UK. Thus, traders will have another opportunity to verify the deplorable state of the British economy or, conversely, to refute this opinion. However, even a quick glance at today's publications, it becomes clear that, most likely, the first opinion will be confirmed. The GDP level in November is forecasted with an increase of 0%. It can be recalled that we have mainly witnessed either a zero increase in the main indicator of the state of the country's economy or even a negative one in the last few months. According to experts, industrial production in the UK in November will be -1.4%, and in monthly terms, the loss will amount to 0.2%. Further, manufacturing production should decline by 1.6% on an annualized basis, and an estimate of the growth rate from NIESR for December is likely to show a decrease of 0.3%. Thus, if real values are simply not higher than predicted, then it will be possible to state another failure for all publications today. Of course, due to the fact that the forecasts are extremely weak in all respects, it will be easier to exceed them, and in this case, the pound can even get a little support. But ask yourself, dear traders, if, for example, industrial production is reduced not by 1.4%, but by 1.0%, can this be considered an optimistic factor? The answer is obvious.

Thus, we are inclined to believe Mark Carney, who at his last speech said that the British economy needs incentives, rates can be lowered. The quantitative easing program is expanded, and even in this case all monetary policy instruments may not be enough to stabilize the situation. Of course, Carney also noted that both the banking system and the UK economy are ready for Brexit, however, what does this "readiness" mean? If the fact that the banking and financial systems just do not collapse, then this is not too good news. Most likely the UK economy will continue to decline in 2020. Therefore, the prospects for the pound remain uncertain.

Today, we are witnessing the resumption of a downward movement, as indicated by the Heiken Ashi indicator. The downward movement should now continue at least to the previous local minimum - 1.2910 since the bulls failed to start a new upward trend. The lowest linear regression channel has already turned down, which indicates a leisurely change in the long-term upward trend to a downward one.

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The average volatility of the pound/dollar is 97 points over the past 5 days, which has a slight decrease, but at the same time remaining at a fairly high level. According to the current level of volatility, the working channel as of January 13 is limited by the levels of 1.2956 and 1.3150, and we expect to develop the lower border of the volatility channel by the end of today. The start of correction, as before, will be signaled by the Heiken Ashi indicator with a turn up.

The nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,3000

S2 - 1.2939

S3 - 1.2878

The nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3062

R2 - 1.3123

R3 - 1,3184

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair resumed its downward movement. Thus, traders are now advised to sell the British pound with the target of 1.2956, as the mood in the currency market is "bearish" again. It is recommended to buy British currency no earlier than the return of the pair above the moving, but it should be remembered that even in this case, the fundamental background remains not on the side of the pound.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue unidirectional lines.

The lower channel of linear regression is the purple unidirectional lines.

CCI - blue line in the indicator regression window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - a blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 13/01/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The offer of Bitcoin options from the CME exchange will certainly enrich the giant's product menu. In September 2019, CME filed an application to double the monthly limit on open positions of Bitcoin futures contracts to 10,000 BTC, due to the increasing demand for futures contracts.

The options will enable traders to use alternative trading strategies and to save on margins using margin compensation. The CME options on bitcoin will have a minimum tick size (tick size) set at 5 USD per BTC. In this case, for contracts worth 5 BTC, the value will increase by 25 USD.

It seems that the evolution of Bitcoin towards the traditional investment scene with trading in derivatives has been announced as a sign of maturity. It is a gateway for traditional investors to get acquainted with the often volatile but exciting market. It can also lead to a further increase in the interest and adoption of digital assets.

Technical Market Overview:

During the weekend, the BTC/USD pair has been trading inside a narrow range located between the levels of $7,934 - $8,226. The pair har tested the technical support located at the level of $7,601 - $7,581 and bounced higher, which means, the support had been recognized by the market participants as valid and they want to resume the recent uptrend. Moreover, there is no possibility to move lower at the price of Bitcoin unless the support is clearly violated. The bulls have temporary control over the market and the odds for another spike up are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,744

WR2 - $9,058

WR1 - $8,561

Weekly Pivot - $7,905

WS1 - $7,428

WS2 - $6,754

WS3 - $6,270

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. There is a possibility that the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Weak dollar gives a chance to strengthen CAD, while demand for JPY will remain low

The US labor market report was disappointing - 145 thousand new jobs were created, which was below the forecast of 160 thousand. The data for the previous 2 months were revised by 14 thousand downward. At the same time, the data on average wages look even weaker, an increase in December by 0.1% with a forecast of 0.3% and a decrease in annual growth from 3.1% to 2.9% worsen expectations for consumer inflation and increase the chances of another cut in the Fed rate in March 2020.

Therefore, leading indicators indicate that the slowdown is likely to develop. The number of new NFIB vacancies is falling and the number of worked overtime hours is noticeably reduced.

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So far, the situation looks completely manageable for the Fed. There is no need for sudden movements, but some steps will be taken. This week, decisions will be made on new rates for the purchase of T-bills, as well as a new schedule of operations in the repo market.

Perhaps, the main driver for this week will be the trade negotiations between the US and China again since the probability of signing the document on Wednesday, January 15, looks high. Due to the fact that the specific terms of the agreement were not disclosed, directly opposite opinions are expressed about the possible reaction of the market to official signing.

The dollar looks weak at the beginning of the week and is likely to decline against most G10 currencies.

USD/CAD

The employment report in Canada in December turned out to be mixed, but it looks noticeably better against the backdrop of American non-farms and in fact is bullish for the Canadian. The number of employed increased in December more than forecasts. The unemployment rate declined from 5.9% to 5.6%, the negative is the decrease in average wages from 4.26% yoy to 3.84% yoy, which is still higher than in the USA.

Meanwhile, the CFTC report released on Friday turned out to be unexpectedly positive for the Canadian dollar. The growth of geopolitical tensions did not lead to an increase in purchases of the dollar, and the demand for which, expressed through the positioning of major currencies, more than doubled compared to December 31, while there was no increase in the Swiss franc, as is usually the case in such cases. The total shortage for the yen declined, while the demand for the British pound increased, and for the Canadian dollar, there was a significant increase in bullish positions.

Given the quite strong correlation of the USD/CAD rate and the net speculative position, one cannot but notice a pronounced divergence - the total bullish position in CAD updated the one-year maximum, and the USD/CAD rate lags behind, so moving to 1.29 and further to 1.28 becomes quite logical.

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The pullback from the local minimum of 1.2954 occurred against the backdrop of a sharp decrease in geopolitical tensions - the United States and Iran, apparently, will refrain from steps aimed at further escalation, which led to a sharp decrease in oil quotes.

Now, the loonie is unlikely to be configured for strong movements, given the "empty" calendar for CAD this week. Today, the Bank of Canada will publish its first study of consumer expectations, which will include data on consumer inflation, the labor market and financial conditions of households. The results of the survey will allow to adjust expectations following the meeting of the Bank of Canada on January 22.

BoC CEO Stephen Poloz said last week that the Central Bank will carefully examine labor market data to see if growth retardation is a trend or a temporary phenomenon.

In this regard, USD/CAD remains under bearish pressure. The threat of corrective growth to 1.3110 / 30 is not high, but the chances of updating the minimum of 1.2950 are growing. If the US inflation report on Tuesday will be worse than expected, then the movement of USD/CAD to 1.2830 may increase in the coming days.

USD/JPY

Deflationary factors continue to put pressure on the Japanese economy. The consumer confidence index continues to be around 8-year lows, the level of wages is below the 9-year average, and the expected rebound in household spending after the introduction of the new consumption tax rate in November did not happen - a decrease of 2% against the forecast of + 2.5% indicates that the Bank of Japan's problems are only growing with inflation.

As a result, USD/JPY rose to the boundary of the 109.7 channel again, and given the reduction in tension, growth could be expected, but the weakness of the dollar is too obvious to count on strong growth. Now, in the case of a breakdown of resistance, growth may stop at 110.2 or 110.5, but the chances of a return to the middle of the range of 109.05 / 15 look a little preferable so far.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 13/01/2020:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair did not bounce much after the drop to the level of 1.3017 as it is still locked inside of a narrow zone located between the levels of 1.3101 - 1.3017. The bears are still making pressure on the market because they are trying to test and possibly break out below the technical support at 1.3017 and head towards the next target located at the level of 1.2988 or 1.2962. The negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for Cable, but the larger timeframe trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3350

WR2 - 1.3274

WR1 - 1.3145

Weekly Pivot - 1.3077

WS1 - 1.2952

WS2 - 1.2870

WS3 - 1.2758

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is up, so all downward market moves will be treated as local corrections in the uptrend. In order to reverse the trend from up to down in the longer term, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2756 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509.

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Overview of EUR/USD pair on January 11. Nonfarm payrolls have caused sales of the dollar. All the attention is now focused

4-hour time frame

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - up.

The lower linear regression channel: upward direction.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -22.6779

The first trading day of the week begins with an upward correction for the EUR/USD currency pair, as evidenced by the Heiken Ashi indicator. The price has already reached the moving average line, from which the downward movement can rebound and continue. On the other hand, a non-strong report on Nonfarm payrolls on Friday put pressure on the US currency, which remains at the moment. (Few) traders were also disappointed by the weak wage growth rate and although we continue to believe that nothing catastrophic has happened with the US economy, a certain negative effect of these macroeconomic statistics remains. Now, everything will depend on whether the bulls are strong enough to overcome the moving average. If so, then the euro / dollar may return to a new attempt to start an upward trend. If not, the downward trend will resume, which is more logical from a fundamental point of view.

On the first trading day of a new week, there will be no important macroeconomic publications in the European Union or the United States as often happens. Thus, volatility can be low today, and movements can be multidirectional, subject to technical factors. For example, the most likely scenario is this bounce from the moving and a small pull down. In total, not exceeding 40-50 points of volatility.

Meanwhile, all the topics that have been exciting the currency market recently have calmed down a bit. The conflict between Iran and the States has not been developed, but the situation between the countries remains tense. Unfortunately, the usual innocent citizens - passengers of the Ukrainian Boeing, who was shot down by mistake by the Iranian armed forces, suffered the most in this military conflict. Ironically, most of the passengers were just Iranians. At the moment, mass protests are underway in Iran due to the disaster of the Ukrainian airliner. Protesters demand the resignation of the authorities, who officially admitted that they accidentally shot down a Ukrainian plane. Meanwhile, Donald Trump said that "in principle, he doesn't care whether Iran will now negotiate." According to the American president, the main thing is that the Iranian authorities do not kill the protesters, and the country itself renounces nuclear weapons.

Interesting news came from the camp of the US Democratic Party. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg said he was ready to spend about $ 1 billion on the 2020 presidential election, even if he himself did not participate in them. In addition, Bloomberg is ready to finance the campaigns of Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, or any other Democratic candidate, the main thing is that Trump does not win the race for the presidency. We can say with confidence that the billionaire who owns the media agency of the same name will direct all his efforts to ensure that Trump's political ratings fall. We will not start a new discussion about whether this is good or bad if Donald Trump remains for a second term. The conclusion is obvious to many. With the advent of Trump, the political, geopolitical situation in the world sharply intensified. The trade wars began

We just have to figure out how all these events will affect the EUR / USD currency pair. So far, there are no signs that traders are interested in all the ups and downs associated with Trump and US foreign policy. The US economy continues to grow, the growth rate is confident, so investors and traders, in principle, can be satisfied. That means that there are still few reasons for the decline of the US dollar. Based on this, we are waiting for the resumption of the downward movement. Tomorrow, the consumer price index in America will be published, which can support the US currency. However, it can create additional pressure on it. Thus, everything will depend on the correspondence of the real value to the forecast of the consumer price index for December.

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The average volatility of the EUR / USD currency pair is currently 51 points and continues to decline slowly. Thus, we have volatility levels on January 13 - 1.1066 and 1.1168. It is unlikely that any of these levels will be developed today, given the almost empty fundamental background of Monday. Now, we are inclined that the day will be corrective today.

The nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1108

S2 - 1.1078

S3 - 1.1047

The nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1139

R2 - 1.1169

R3 - 1.1200

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar began to adjust. Thus, at the moment, traders are advised to wait until the correction is complete. The Heiken Ashi Winz indicator is reversing and resuming sales of the Euro currency with targets 1.1078 and 1.1066. It is recommended to return to pair purchases with a target of 1.1168 no earlier than traders moving through the moving average line.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue unidirectional lines.

The lower channel of linear regression is the purple unidirectional lines.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - a blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and a trading recommendation for GBP/USD on 01/13/2020

The market quite calmly accepted the contents of the report of the United States Department of Labor, as it turned out to be completely different than expected. Of course, the pace of creating new jobs outside of agriculture has slowed, and more significantly than expected. They were created 145 thousand, while 165 thousand were forecasted. At the same time, 256 thousand were created in the previous month. And although this is an extremely negative factor, it still did not lead to a weakening dollar, as the unemployment rate, unexpectedly, remained unchanged . This is precisely the reason why there was no reaction to the publication of the report, because investors look at these two indicators. However, in fact, the content of the report was extremely poor. Thus, the unemployment rate remained unchanged due to the fact that the share of the able-bodied in the total population did not change, although they expected its growth from 63.2% to 63.3%. In addition, the growth rate of the average hourly wage did not remain unchanged, but slowed down from 3.1% to 2.9%. Moreover, the average working week, in fact, decreased to 34.3 hours. True, statistics indicate that the duration of the working week remained unchanged, as previous data was revised downward. So it is clear that the content of the report of the Ministry of Labor is clearly negative, and directly indicates a high probability of a decrease in consumer activity. Not now, but in the near future.

Unemployment Rate (United States):

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Today, all the attention is paid to the UK, where industrial production data is published. No more interesting statistics are published today. At the same time, the pound will most likely be forced to give up its positions, as British industry, which is currently declining by 1.3%, can accelerate its decline to 1.4%. This will mean that the decline in industrial production has been going on for the eighth consecutive month.

Industrial Production (UK):

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In terms of technical analysis, we see that after a slight pullback, the GBP/USD pair again went to the psychological level of 1.3000, while showing little activity. In fact, the quote sequentially forms a downward move, where it was set in the first days of the new year.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, we continue to monitor the extremely high pound sterling, where the quote displays similar behavior, as it did at the beginning of last year.

It is likely to assume that sellers will nevertheless be able to closely approximate the quotation to the psychological level of 1.3000, where it is worthwhile to carefully monitor the price taking points, since depending on the consolidations it will be clear which trading method we will use - Breakout/Bounce.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

- Long positions, we consider in case of deceleration within the level of 1.3000, followed by a rebound.

- Short positions, we look towards the level of 1.3000, we expect a deeper decline after a clear consolidation of the price below 1.2980/1.2990.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that indicators invariably signal a decline, which is confirmed by the general interest of the market.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 13/01/2020:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has fallen from swing low located at the level of 1.1239 and made a local low at the level of 1.1086, just a few pips lower than the technical support at 1.1091. The bounce still looks weak as the momentum is neutral, but the oversold market conditions might indicate another leg towards the short-term trendline resistance around the level of 1.1144. The larger timeframe trend remains down to sideways with a possibility of a rally after the Ending Diagonal triangle termination around the level of 1.0877.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1297

WR2 - 1.1248

WR1 - 1.1178

Weekly Pivot - 1.1129

WS1 - 1.1052

WS2 - 1.1011

WS3 - 1.0932

Trading Recommendations:

Not much has changed since the last ween in a bigger perspective. Still, the best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.1040 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Indicator analysis: Daily review on GBP / USD for January 13, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The price opened with a lower gap below the support line 1.3065 presented in a white bold line. The said line will be the watershed for today. Also, the price may begin to move up with the target of 1.3117 which is a pullback level of 38.2% presented in a red dashed line. If this line is reached, a continuation of work up with the target of 1.3149 which is a pullback level of 50.0% (presented in a red dashed line.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

The price may start to move up today.

A downward scenario is unlikely but quite possible. From the level of 1.3053, the support line in a white bold line, work down with the target 1.3013, the lower fractal presented in a red dashed line.

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GOLD Price Movement For January 13, 2020

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Analizing Gold seasonal trends and the COT Commercial Hedge, this commodity has been trading with the bullish bias. It seems the Gold price is going to test the 4-Hour chart fair value at 1$5,84.62. If the volatility and momentum is good, there is a possibility that gold will try to test the 4-Hour chart BUY Side Liquidity Pool at $1,592.72 and the Monthly Chart BUY Side Liquidity Pool Level at $1,615.50.

Overall, the precious metal has been following the uptrend.

* For detailed information, you can download the .pdf version from here: https://uptobox.com/6777gmdx4ncy

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD Price Movement For January 13, 2020

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On the grounds of seasonal trends and the Commitment Of Traders Commercial Net Hedge, we know that the Cable is now trading with a bearish trend. If we look at the 4-Hour chart, traders are espressing the sell market sentiment on this pair with a low resistance liquidity run condition. So, based on the daily chart, there is a high probability that SELL side liquidity pool at 1.2904 will be challenged. If the momentum and the volatility is good, there is a possibility for the next daily chart SELL Side Liquidity Pool at 1.2768 will be attacked too.

In this context, we know that the Cable is following the downtrend.

* For More depth and detailed information, you can download the .pdf version from here: https://uptobox.com/c79pa8lnke6o

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Preview of the week: US inflation, trade and Lagarde

The euro-dollar continued the trend on Friday during the Asian session on Monday, rising to the level of 1.1130. Dollar bulls are forced to reckon with rather weak data on the growth of the US labor market in December. Nonfarm unexpectedly came out in the red zone, not reaching the forecast values. On Friday, the EUR/USD bears were able to neutralize the negative effect of this release, however, buyers have reactivated today. However, the main battle between bulls and bears is yet to come - this week is rich in events of a fundamental nature. Let's look at the main ones.

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Today - January 13 - the Chinese delegation should arrive in Washington to sign the first phase of the trade deal. The signing ceremony itself may take place a little later, on the 15th. This is the date announced by US President Donald Trump. However, after this, in an interview with ABC, he said that the date of signing the contract could be delayed - but the "base scenario" involves signing the deal this Wednesday. A newsletter on the text of the trade agreement should be published on the same day. In one of his tweets, Trump reported that after signing the first phase of the deal, he would go to China to negotiate the second phase, although the discussion of this stage could drag on to 2021. In general, the signing ceremony can support the US currency, although the fact that the first phase of the deal was agreed upon by the market has long played back (in December). Therefore, the influence of this fundamental factor may be of a short-term nature.

But macroeconomic reports will play a special role for EUR/USD. First of all, we are talking about data on the growth of US inflation, the release of which is scheduled for Tuesday. Let me remind you that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly hinted that further steps by the US regulator will largely depend on the dynamics of inflation growth. According to him, the Fed "will not even think" of raising the rate until inflation shows steady and stable growth.

It is worth noting that according to the consensus forecast, US inflation indicators should show positive dynamics in December. The general consumer price index should rise to 2.4% on an annualized basis and to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, can also show low growth in monthly terms (up to 0.2%) and remain at the same level (2.3%) in annual terms. If the real numbers fall below enough predicted values, the dollar may again fall under a wave of sales.

Weak inflation will affect Fed members, who are forced to reckon not only with the dynamics of the labor market, but also with inflation dynamics, especially in light of the recent Nonfarms report. Let me remind you that the inflation component - the level of the average hourly wage - significantly disappointed last Friday. This most important indicator for the Fed was at around 0.1% on a monthly basis (the worst result since last September, when it fell to zero) and 2.9% on an annual basis (worst result since July 2018). Such dynamics are also correlated with the uncertain growth of key inflation indicators. Therefore, the disappointing CPI report will in any case put downward pressure on the US currency.

The remaining releases this week will be less significant, but still important for the EUR/USD pair. The US will publish the producer price index on Wednesday, January 15, which is an early signal of changes in inflationary trends. Recently, it has been showing contradictory dynamics - it jumped to 0.4% in October, while it dropped to zero in November. A slight increase is expected again in December - both in monthly and in annual terms. Excluding food and energy prices, this indicator should exceed a zero value in monthly terms and remain at the same level (1.3% year on year).

The United States will publish data on retail sales on Thursday. The overall indicator began to decline again (0.2%) last month, but December figures should demonstrate positive dynamics - both the total retail sales and excluding car sales - all these indicators should go into the green zone (0.3% and 0.5%, respectively). The head of the ECB Christine Lagarde will hold a speech on this day. But it will be ceremonial (she will deliver a speech at the reception), so she is unlikely to touch on the topic of monetary policy prospects.

We will find out the final data on the growth of European inflation on Friday (the release should coincide with the initial estimate of 1.3%) and the data on the growth of the Chinese economy (a slight slowdown is expected). During the US session, all the attention of traders of the EUR/USD pair will be focused on the indicator of industrial production in the US. This release is especially important now, in light of the downward trend in the ISM manufacturing index, which recently updated a 10-year low. Unfortunately, (primarily for dollar bulls), this indicator should demonstrate negative dynamics, and quite substantial - from 1.1% to zero. If the indicator plunges into the negative area, the dollar will feel additional pressure on the fundamental background.

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Thus, according to the results of the current week, EUR/USD traders should choose a vector of further movement. The pair may exceed the key resistance level of 1.1220 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart), thereby gaining a foothold in the 12th figure. Or go below the support level of 1.1050 (the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud, which coincides with the lower line of the Bollinger Bands), thereby opening the way for a decline to the ninth figure.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan 01/13 EURUSD: New growth attempt

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EURUSD is trying to start a new wave of growth - after turning upward on Friday on the Nonfarms data.

The US employment report was not bad, +145K - but slightly below forecasts. This was enough for the euro to turn up.

According to the calendar, the new week is almost empty - on Tuesday the CPI inflation report will be released - CPI, the Beige Book Fed report on Wednesday - but in general, super-important news is not yet visible.

Possible purchases from 1.1100 with a stop below 1.1080 - or purchases for a breakthrough at 1.1205.

Cancellation of growth - a break below 1.1080.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for January 13, 2020

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Resistance at 143.46 protected the upside as expected and we are now looking for a clear break below support at 142.38 to confirm renewed downside pressure towards 140.81 on the way towards 139.25 and the ideal target at 137.57.

We see resistance at 143.08 and strong resistance at 143.46, which is expected to cap the upside.

R3: 143.46

R2: 143.08

R1: 142.95

Pivot: 142.55

S1: 142.38

S2: 141.99

S3: 141.50

Trading recommendation:

We are short-GBP from 143.03 with our stop placed at 144.25. Upon a break below 142.38 we will lower our stop to 143.50.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 13, 2020

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We have had to change our count as EUR/JPY has moved beyond resistance at 121.76. The first part of the correction from 122.66 completed wave w at 120.14 as a zig-zag correction and the ongoing rally from 120.14 is regarded as an x-wave, that ideally will complete near 122.22 and should be followed by renewed downside pressure towards 120.14 on the way towards the ideal target at 119.26.

Short-term a break below support at 121.70 and more importantly a break below 121.50 will confirm that wave x has completed and wave y is in motion for the expected decline towards 119.26.

R3: 122.66

R2: 122.30

R1: 122.22

Pivot: 121.85

S1: 121.70

S2: 121.50

S3: 121.06

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 121.75 and we will placed our stop at 122.55

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis: Daily review on EUR / USD for January 13, 2020

The pair moved down on Friday and reached the support line 1.1086 presented in a white bold line. After that, the market began to move upwards, having tested the historical resistance line of 1.1128 presented in a blue dashed line. Strong Monday news is not expected today. We look forward to a continuation of work up.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The price may move up on Monday with the first target of 1.1146 which is a retracement level of 38.2% presented in a blue dotted line. Upon reaching this line, the next goal will be a pullback level of 50.0% which is equivalent to 1.1164 presented in a blue dashed line.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

An upward trend is possible today.

An unlikely scenario is from the level of 1.1108 (closing of the Friday afternoon candle), the price will go down to the rollback level of 61.8% which is at 1.1081 presented in a red dotted line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on January 13, 2020

EUR/USD

US employment data for December came out good. The increase in new jobs outside the agricultural sector (Nonfarm Payrolls) amounted to 145 thousand against the forecast of 165 thousand, the revision of the previous data was even weaker than our calculations: in October -14 thousand (152K vs 156K), in November -10 thousand. The general unemployment rate remained at the level 3.5%, an extended estimate of the unemployment index U6 fell from 6.9% to 6.7%. The share of economically active population remained at the level of 63.2%. Wage growth was a little disappointing - only 0.1% versus the expected 0.3%. Investors were nevertheless directly confused by payrolls and the S&P 500 stock index got hooked at -0.27%. The euro also reached for it, adding 13 points. We expect that investors will revise the assessment of the released data in a more positive way and the mood for dollar purchases will return.

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On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator remains in the declining trend zone. The immediate goal of the decline is the coincidence point of the MACD line with the Fibonacci level of 123.6%.

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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is in the zone of positive values, the purpose of corrective growth is to pair the indicator lines of balance (red) and MACD (blue) at a price of 1.1145. We are waiting for the price to turn down from this point.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on January 13, 2020

GBP/USD

Quotes of the British pound are held for two days on the indicator line of the balance of the daily scale in red. Overcoming it will allow the price to consistently take the three immediate goals at the Fibonacci levels: 1.2968, 1.2820, 1.2730. The Marlin oscillator is in the decline zone.

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On the four-hour chart, the price overcame the support of the MACD line, but did so with a gap. In this case, with a general declining trend and in the absence of warning reversal signals, the "window" serves as a harbinger of a further fall in prices, but it is not advisable for it to remain open for a long time.

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We are waiting for the closure of this gap and a further decline in the British pound. The Marlin oscillator is developing in a declining trend zone.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on January 13, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar took advantage of the temporary weakness of the US dollar and corrects from the fall of January 2-8. Before the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel at around 0.6923, about 10 points remained. We are most likely to expect a downward movement from this resistance, towards 0.6867 targets - towards the MACD line, and towards 0.6825 - towards the price channel line.

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The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is trying to cross the boundary with the territory of the bulls, in the case of working out the specified goal and the price reversal, the signal line of the oscillator will receive a turn exactly from the boundary.

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On the four-hour chart, the expected target of 0.6923 coincides with a correction of 38.2% and the MACD line. The resistance is strong.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis for major currency pairs on January 13

Forecast for January 3:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1177, 1.1151, 1.1132, 1.1087, 1.1058, 1.1031 and 1.1015. Here, we continue to monitor the local descending structure of January 6. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1087. In this case, the target is 1.1058. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.1056 will lead to movement to a potential target - 1.1015. In turn, price consolidation is in the range of 1.1015 - 1.1031 and from here, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1132 - 1.1151. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1177. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the local descending structure of January 6

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1132 Take profit: 1.1150

Buy: 1.1153 Take profit: 1.1175

Sell: 1.1085 Take profit: 1.1060

Sell: 1.1056 Take profit: 1.1034

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3178, 1.3113, 1.3073, 1.3006, 1.2937, 1.2874 and 1.2838. Here, we consider the descending cycle of December 31 as the main structure. We expect further downward movement after a breakdown of the level of 1.3006. In this case, the target is 1.2937. Price consolidation is near this level. Its breakdown will lead to a movement to a potential target - 1.2838. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2838 - 1.2874 and from here, we expect a correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3073 - 1.3113. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3178. This level is a key support for the descending structure of December 31.

The main trend is the descending structure of December 31

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3073 Take profit: 1.3111

Buy: 1.3120 Take profit: 1.3175

Sell: 1.3005 Take profit: 1.2940

Sell: 1.2935 Take profit: 1.2875

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9832, 0.9810, 0.9778, 0.9751, 0.9706, 0.9685 and 0.9664. Here, we determine the next goals from the local ascending structure on January 8. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9751. In this case, the target is 0.9778. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9780 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.9810. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9832, upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9706 - 0.9685. There is a high probability of a reversal to the top from this range. The breakdown of the level of 0.9685 will lead to the development of a downward structure. Here, the first potential target is 0.9664.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of January 8

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9751 Take profit: 0.9775

Buy : 0.9780 Take profit: 0.9810

Sell: 0.9705 Take profit: 0.9688

Sell: 0.9683 Take profit: 0.9664

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.78, 110.39, 109.81, 109.58, 109.14, 108.86 and 108.46. Here, we are following the formation of a pronounced ascending structure of January 8. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 109.58 - 109.81. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by an impulsive movement to the level of 110.39. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 110.78, from which we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range 109.14 - 108.86. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 108.46. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend: building potential for the top of January 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.58 Take profit: 109.80

Buy : 109.83 Take profit: 110.30

Sell: 109.14 Take profit: 108.88

Sell: 108.82 Take profit: 108.50

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3157, 1.3126, 1.3112, 1.3090, 1.3062, 1.3040 and 1.3015. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of January 7. We expect further upward movement after the breakdown of the level of 1.3090. In this case, the target is 1.3112. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3112 - 1.3126. We consider the level of 1.3157 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3062 - 1.3040. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3015. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of January 7

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3090 Take profit: 1.3112

Buy : 1.3126 Take profit: 1.3155

Sell: 1.3062 Take profit: 1.3042

Sell: 1.3038 Take profit: 1.3015

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6972, 0.6955, 0.6933, 0.6915, 0.6887, 0.6871, 0.6851, 0.6827 and 0.6793. Here, the price forms the potential for the upward movement of January 9 in the correction of the downward cycle of December 31. Short-term movement to the top is expected in the range of 0.6915 - 0.6933. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.6955. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6972, upon reaching this value we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 0.6887 - 0.6871. The breakdown of the last value will have the subsequent development of the downward structure. Here, the first goal is 0.6851. As a potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6793. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6825.

The main trend is the descending structure of December 31, the formation of potential for the top of January 9

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6915 Take profit: 0.6930

Buy: 0.6935 Take profit: 0.6955

Sell : 0.6887 Take profit : 0.6873

Sell: 0.6870 Take profit: 0.6852

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.61, 122.30, 121.82, 121.30, 121.06 and 120.71. Here, we are following the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of January 8. We expect the continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of the level of 121.82. In this case, the target is 122.30. For now, we consider the level of 122.61 to be a potential value for the upward trend; upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 121.30 - 121.06. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 120.71. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of January 8

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.82 Take profit: 122.26

Buy: 121.32 Take profit: 122.60

Sell: 121.30 Take profit: 121.08

Sell: 121.04 Take profit: 120.76

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 145.11, 144.53, 143.68, 142.34, 141.87, 141.31 and 140.66. Here, we are following the development of the upward structure of January 3, after the abolition of the downward trend. We expect further upward movement after the passage at the price level of 143.70. In this case, the target is 144.53. Price consolidation is near this value. For the potential level for the top, we consider level 145.11, from which we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 142.34 - 141.87. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 141.31. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of January 3

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 143.70 Take profit: 144.50

Buy: 144.55 Take profit: 145.10

Sell: 142.34 Take profit: 141.90

Sell: 141.85 Take profit: 141.35

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. January 11. Results of the week. UK economy continues to lose huge amounts due to Brexit

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 106p - 111p - 118p - 89p - 111p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 107p (high).

The British pound on Friday, January 10, was trading with low (for itself) volatility. It was traded as if there were no macroeconomic publications in the United States, there were no NonFarm Payrolls or data on wages. And although we believe that statistics from across the ocean are completely not a failure, we were counting on some kind of reaction from traders. Everything is logical and reasonable in the EUR/USD pair. The US dollar plummeted, but not too much, which is fully consistent with the nature of the news. There was absolutely no reaction to Friday's news in the GBP/USD pair. Quotes of the pair in the framework of a new weak downward trend were first corrected to the Senkou Span B line, and then rebounded from it and resumed downward movement. Thus, we continue to believe that the British currency has only one path - down. At the same time, we also note the clearly weak desire of the bears to actively sell the pair now. It seems that the markets are waiting for something, perhaps a new, strong fundamental impulse.

All macroeconomic statistics on Friday were ignored by traders of the pound/dollar pair. Thus, it is not surprising that the topics with the transfer of the Trump impeachment case to the Senate, with the introduction of a new list of Washington's sanctions against Iran, as well as the willingness of China and the United States to sign the first phase of the agreement at the beginning of next week, also did not affect the pair's movement. In such a situation, firstly, you need to wait for that momentum, and secondly, since there is still a downward trend, you can reject this downward movement, just remember that the bears do not have a big desire to actively sell the pound.

As for the prospects of the British pound, they remain the same from our point of view. A large-scale economic study was conducted, within the framework of which it turned out that the UK economy has already lost about 3% of GDP over the years of Brexit or $170 billion. We emphasize that in three years when Great Britain remained in the EU, but wanted to leave it, the country's economy lost $170 billion. What will happen when Brexit officially enters the second phase, that is, the transition period begins? What will happen when the transition period is completed? What happens if Brussels and London fail to reach a trade agreement for 2020? So far, all these questions suggest the worst answer options for the British currency and the UK economy as a whole. Mark Carney, the head of the Bank of England, who is resigning after a month, did not become secretive in his last weeks and bluntly stated that the key rate could be lowered, the asset repurchase program expanded, and the instruments held by the regulator was not enough to stabilize the situation. We repeat: Great Britain has not even entered the transition period, and its economy is already "bursting at the seams". Thus, we believe that there are no positive expectations for 2020 regarding the pound sterling. At the very least, such a conclusion can be drawn at the moment. Of course, surprises are possible, but at the moment it's hard to even imagine what could support the British currency in 2020. Thus, we believe that the pound will be prone to fall throughout the year and may well update its multi-year lows. The period of "rising from its knees" for Britain has not even begun. By the way, official forecasts of the same economic study say that the UK economy will lose another 70 billion pounds in 2020, and the total loss over four years will amount to 261 billion dollars.

Well, to all this, it is imperative to add all the geopolitical problems that London will definitely face and which it may face potentially. For example, London's biggest problem now is Scotland, which has seriously set out to hold a second independence referendum in order to avoid leaving the European Union or to return there as quickly as possible. Nicola Sturgeon does not want her country to live according to "the principles of Boris Johnson" and will require official permission from London for a referendum. However, according to some analysts, if Johnson does not grant such a right to Edinburgh, Sturgeon can go for an open riot and hold a referendum without the consent of London. Potentially, this means a new geopolitical conflict and new losses for the United Kingdom, which at such a pace could very soon turn into England.

The technical picture now implies the resumption of the downward movement with targets 1.2993 and 1.2955. The goals are approximate and will be specified at the beginning of next week. Most importantly, the pound/dollar pair did not manage to overcome the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines, so the downward movement now has no obstacles in its path.

Trading recommendations:

GBP/USD may resume downward movement. Therefore, traders are advised to continue to trade lower while aiming for the support level of 1.2993. It is recommended that purchases of British currency be returned no earlier than the price consolidation above the Kijun-sen line with the first targets of 1.3169 and 1.3224.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Nonfarm disappointed, but the dollar keeps afloat

US Nonfarm disappointed: almost all indicators of labor market growth in the US came out in the red zone, not reaching forecast values. Nevertheless, the dollar showed some a certain stress tolerance yesterday - although the currency weakened throughout the market, but at the same time remained almost at the same levels as before the release. The EUR/USD pair was no exception: the bulls were able to pull it into the area of the 11th figure, but the upward impulse almost completely drowned, and traders closed the trading week at 1.1118.

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That is, on the one hand, it cannot be said that dollar bulls completely ignored the release - the greenback to one extent or another fell in almost all pairs. On the other hand, the reaction of traders was extremely restrained, given the published data. It is likely that yesterday's release will still return to dollar bulls later, for example, at the end of January, when the Federal Reserve's first meeting this year will be held. But today, market participants clearly do not focus on the weak dynamics of the labor market, while maintaining interest in the US currency. The published data could not fundamentally reverse the fundamental picture for the pair, although in my opinion, they are clearly not in favor of the US currency.

Almost all components came out worse than expected, reflecting a slowdown in the labor market. Only the unemployment rate remained the same, that is, at around 3.5%. This is a record of several decades - the last time the indicator stayed at this level in the distant 1969. However, this fact actually serves as little comfort for dollar bulls. The unemployment rate is not responding so quickly to the current situation - this indicator refers to lagging economic indicators. Therefore, a certain optimism among traders regarding the relatively low unemployment rate is premature, since more operational indicators indicate rather alarming trends.

All of them went below the forecast values. Instead of an increase of 165 thousand (consensus forecast), the indicator grew by 145 thousand. But the number of jobs in the manufacturing industry has completely decreased (by 12 thousand). The indicator for the second time in a short time plunges into the negative area - it fell by 49 thousand in October. It is worth recalling that the ISM production index has been consistently decreasing for the past seven months, collapsing to the level of 47.2 points (this is a 10-year low) in December. The growth in the number of people employed in the private sector of the economy also slowed down (139 thousand with a forecast of 155 thousand, the previous value was 243 thousand). In this case, the decline is insignificant, but this factor still played a role, given the dynamics of the remaining indicators.

Nonfarm's inflationary component — the level of average hourly wages — was especially disappointing. This most important indicator for the Fed was at around 0.1% on a monthly basis (the worst result since last September, when it fell to zero) and 2.9% on an annual basis (worst result since July 2018). Such dynamics are also correlated with the uncertain growth of key inflation indicators.

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It is worth noting here that the labor market has long been a reliable tool for the dollar. Against the backdrop of fluctuations in other key indicators, Nonfarm has always supported dollar bulls - after the spring recession last year, the US labor market recovered and kept the mark. But the numbers published yesterday amid a consistent decline in the ISM production index may subsequently undermine the greenback position.

But yesterday, the market, in fact, ignored this fact, justifying the decline with seasonal, pre-holiday factors. In addition, White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow praised the December Nonfarm, stating that "employment rates still remain very strong." Comments by White House representatives on the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators tend to have little effect on the dollar's position - however, traders still focused on this nuance yesterday. In addition, participants in the foreign exchange market are now focused on waiting for the signing ceremony of the first phase of the US-China trade deal. It will be held early next week, while a newsletter on the text of the trade agreement will be released on January 15. At least Kudlow promised to make the text public by this deadline.

Thus, the market actually ignored the alarming, in my opinion, signals from the US labor market. This made it possible for dollar bulls to hold the EUR/USD pair at the bottom of the 11th figure, preventing the development of the upward impulse. Next week, the dollar may receive additional support amid optimism regarding the prospects for trade relations between the US and China. The closest target of the downward movement is located at 1.1060 - this is the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud, which coincides with the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. January 11. Results of the week. NonFarm Payrolls disappointed. US introduces new sanctions against Iran

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 55p - 49p - 64p - 67p - 28p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 53p (average).

The last trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair is an upward rollback, which, in principle, has been brewing for at least a day. The beginning of this pullback coincided with the publication of macroeconomic statistics in the United States, which, looking ahead, did not please investors in the US currency. At the same time, the US dollar lost some 25 points on the weak macroeconomic statistics from across the ocean, that is, very little, so the downward trend continues, as before, and the downward movement is most likely to resume after the correction is completed. In general, the pair's volatility in recent days has started to decline again, and the downward movement to slow down. Perhaps this is how the euro/dollar reacts when it comes close to two-year lows in the region of $1.09. About 200 points remain at this level at the moment. However, one way or another, the downward trend is still preserved, which means we expect the resumption of the downward movement.

Macroeconomic statistics were published in the United States on Friday. After the ADP report on the change in the number of employees in the private sector exceeded the forecast value, traders also expected to see strong Nonfarm. In practice, everything turned out the other way around. The actual number of newly created jobs outside agriculture was 145,000 with a forecast of 162,000. The average hourly wage was 2.9% YOY, while the forecast was +3.1% YOY, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.5%. We believe that the reaction of currency traders to published statistics was absolutely logical. It is a small pullback in favor of the euro that is the most justified reaction of traders. Firstly, the NonFarm Payrolls report did not fail, but only turned out to be slightly lower than the not-so-weak forecast. Secondly, a strong report from ADP shows that the state of the labor market remains high. Thirdly, the low unemployment rate, the weakest over the past 50 years, also testifies to this. Thus, there was nothing disappointing in this statistics package. Wages also increased by 2.9%, which traders regarded as a weak increase, but until November 2018, wage growth in America was constantly below 3% in annual terms. Therefore, a slight slowdown in wage growth at the end of 2019 is also not a sign of a slowdown in the economy. Thus, the general conclusion is that statistics from overseas did not please traders, but did not disappoint; The US dollar has retreated from its highs (lows for the EUR/USD pair) and this is quite enough to consider the processing of reports completed.

Meanwhile, it became known exactly what sanctions would be introduced by the United States against Iran as a result of attacks on US military bases in Iraq. Finance Minister Stephen Mnuchin said the restrictive measures will be aimed at 17 of the largest producers of steel, aluminum, copper and iron in Iran, at three companies in the Seychelles and China, as well as at one vessel that is "involved in the purchase and sale of Iranian metallurgical products" . In addition, the restrictions will apply to eight senior Iranian officials. In conclusion, Mnuchin said, President Donald Trump is about to sign a decree in the near future that aims to limit "additional sources of income used by the Iranian regime to finance and support its nuclear program, missile development, and terrorism." Donald Trump himself said that Iran was going to attack four American embassies, one of which was in Baghdad, and only the efforts of US drones that eliminated General Kassem Soleimani managed to prevent the attack. The US leader also said that no withdrawal of troops from Iraq is planned in the near future.

Next week, tentatively on Friday, the case of the impeachment of Donald Trump will be transferred to the Senate. This was stated by the speaker of the lower house of Congress, Nancy Pelosi. "I asked the chairman of the judicial committee, Jerry Nadler, to be ready to submit next week a resolution on the appointment of governors and the transfer of articles on impeachment to the Senate." Thus, at the end of next week, Senate proceedings will begin and they could for Trump's impeachment. In any case, this epic will be completed, and most likely the fact that Trump will retain his post.

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD currency pair started an upward correction, which was also signaled by a MACD upward reversal. Thus, the correction can continue while aiming for the critical Kijun-sen line, from which a rebound and the resumption of a new downward trend could follow. For the last two days, a pair of lateral movement has been observed, therefore, none of the levels of volatility has been worked out.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair began to adjust. Thus, now it is recommended for traders to wait until the correction is completed and resume trading on the downside with the target support level of 1.1060. It will be possible to consider purchases of the euro/dollar pair not earlier than the traders of the Senkou Span B line with the first goal of 1.1224. All goals will be specified on Monday in the morning reviews.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com