BITCOIN Analysis for December 4, 2017

Bitcoin is currently residing above $11,300 price area after an impulsive bearish pressure that hit the cryptocurrency, forcing it to fall towards $9,000 price area recently. Bitcoin managed to form a V-pattern and quickly bounced off $9,000 price area with an impulsive gain after the drastic fall due to high volatility. Bitcoin is currently quite a mature market where the impulsive and corrective cycle is being maintained and the cryptocurrency is getting much stronger after each retracement for a certain period. There are speculations that Bitcoin Futures are going to be launched soon which made a positive impact on the growth of the Cryptocurrency and it is expected to encourage much higher highs in the coming days. As of the current scenario, the price is being supported by the dynamic levels again where 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line are forming a floating support for the price to create highs. As the price remains above $10,500 price area and dynamic line of Kijun Sen (Blue Line), the bullish bias is expected to continue further with a target towards $12,000 price area.

analytics5a256363ee4b7.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for December 04, 2017

analytics5a254f5a010a2.png

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $11,532. Regional media reported that Her Majesty's Treasury (Treasury) of the United Kingdom (UK) is "launching a crackdown on the virtual currency Bitcoin amid growing concern it is being used to launder money and dodge tax." Bitcoin enthusiasts, however, understand that the world's most popular cryptocurrency's persistent all-time-high price records, rather than terror or tax avoidance, are drawing more governments into formal regulatory policy and announcements. The technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found a broken upward channel, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $10,610, $10,130 and at the price of $8,961.

Support/Resistance

$11.532 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$10.611 – First objective target

$10.130 – Second objective target

$8.961 – Third objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 04/11/2017

CPI inflation in Turkey reached almost 13%, the highest value since February 2004. Although Turkey has been known for debating the national currency for decades, inflation is the reason for such high rates of concern about the stability of the 17th largest economy in the world.

The rapid rise of inflation in recent months is worrying. Only a year ago prices in the Turkish economy grew at a moderate pace of 6-7% per year. This means a doubling of CPI inflation in 12 months. After a slight panic from two weeks ago, this time the financial market very calmly accepted data from Turkey. The dollar exchange rate was stable (almost record-high) to nearly 3.93 lires. The yield on 10-year Turkish bonds even declined by 22 bps to 11.79%. That is one percentage point less than on the previous Tuesday. The problem is the questionable independence of the Turkish central bank from the almost sultanic authority of Tayyip Erdogan. President Erdogan is known (among others) as a supporter of low-interest rates. In the world of economics, he became famous with the controversial thesis that high-interest rates would fuel inflation. There is a rare consensus among economists that in reality, it is exactly the opposite - it is too low-interest rates that stimulate inflation. The main interest rate is still 8.0% and it was never raised in 2017.

Let's now take a look at the USD/TRY technical picture on the daily time frame chart. The market has made a possible Double Top technical formation at the level of 3.9456 - 3 9834 and now is testing the golden trend line support. Any breakout below this trend line will likely lead to the test of the nearest technical support at the level of 3.7887. A clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator supports the bearish bias.

analytics5a254abc1c8cd.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for December 04, 2017

analytics5a25484e1b7f3.png

Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The pirce tested the level of $1,271.00. According to the 1H time – frame, I found a strong support cluster at the price of $1,270.00 and my advice is to be careful selling at this point. Besides, stochastic oscillator is in the oversold zone, which is another sign of stregnth. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,286.00 and at the price of $1,289.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,289.00

R2: $1,298.00

R3: $1,306.68

Support levels:

S1: $1,271.32

S2: $1,262.65

S3: $1,253.65

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 04/11/2017

At the beginning of the new week, the dollar breathes a sigh of relief, because, after many days of anticipation and uncertainty, the US Senate has finally voted its draft tax reform. However, for President Trump to sign the bill before Christmas, there is still much to be done. First of all, delegates from both chambers of the Congress must merge two draft laws and a coherent project must win a majority of votes. The Republicans have one week to present the final draft vote. It will not be easy, because some solutions from the House of Representatives' project will weaken the minimum majority in the Senate. Since nothing is certain, you can not count on an impressive USD rally. Nevertheless, we are a step closer to success than it does and it supports the Dollar.

However, will it be possible to look forward to Friday's US labor market report in a positive mood? The market participants are anticipating a small decrease in the NFP Payrolls from 261k to 200k, together with steady Unemployment Rate at 4.1% (multi-decade low) and increase in Average Hourly Earnings from 0.0% to 0.3%. Will that anticipations be strong enough to sustain the positive mood around the US Dollar? We will soon find out.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is currently moving in a sideway manner and the horizontal zone is located between the levels of 92.49 - 93.50. As long as the level of 94.20 is not clearly violated, the outlook remains bearish. A flat momentum indicator supports the sideway view.

analytics5a254343edc34.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 04, 2017

GBPUSDDaily.png

Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair is still trading upwards above the levels of 1.3017 and 1.3200. The first support level is currently seen at 1.3017. The trend is still set above the level of 1.3017 and 1.3200 for that the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.3017, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend.
GBPUSDH4.png
  • According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to trade between 1.3100 and 1.3655. So, the support is seen at 1.3017, while daily resistance is found at 1.3298. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3017/1.3200. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the zone of 1.30171.3200 with the first target at the level of 1.3298; and continue towards 1.3655 in coming days. On the other hand, if the GBP/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3298 today, the market will decline further to 1.2820.

Daily key levels:

  • Major resistance:1.3886
  • Minor resistance:1.3655
  • Intraday pivot point:1.3458
  • Minor support:1.3298
  • Major support:1.3070
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 04, 2017

EURUSDH4.png

Overview:

  • Last week, the EUR/USD pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the level of 1.1908. However, the major support is seen at the price of 1.1870.
  • The level of 1.1870 coincides with the ratio of 78.6% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as major support today.
  • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100).
  • This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend.
  • In other words, buy orders are recommended above 1.1908 with the first target at the level of 1.1953. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.2014 and further to the level of 1.2053. The level of 1.2053 will act as strong resistance.
  • On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 1.1873, then this scenario may become invalidated.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for December 04, 2017

analytics5a253f64d59bd.png

Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1836. According to the 1H time - frame, I found rejection from that support level at the price of 1.1850. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1896 (pivot) and at the price of 1.1940 (pivot resistance 1).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1942

R2: 1.1986

R3: 1.2030

Support levels:

S1: 1.1850

S2: 1.1807

S3: 1.1760

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 4, 2017

analytics5a252f65937c6.png

Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback was expected towards 0.7050.

On the other hand, an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is being established on the chart indicating bullish reversal.

That's why, the price zone of 0.6800-0.6830 can be considered for a short-term BUY entry. S/L should be placed below 0.6770. T/P level remains projected towards 0.7050.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 04/12/2017

The Indian finance minister, Arun Jaitley, stressed that the Government of India had not yet recognized Bitcoin as a legal tender. He pointed out that work is underway on recommendations regarding the possible legalization of Bitcoin and other virtual currencies. In an interview with the Economic Times, Jaitley said he had already informed the Indian parliament that the —Āentral bank of the country, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), has not yet issued any licenses for the operation of digital currencies. He further stated that the government is still assessing the recommendations regarding the regulation of virtual currencies.

For several months, the Government of India has been working on regulations regarding the use of virtual currencies. In April 2017, the government set up an interdisciplinary commission to check whether it is necessary to develop regulations on digital currencies. The committee consisted of several government agencies, including the RBI, the Financial Services Department and the Ministry of the Treasury. In October 2017, the Supreme Court of India approached RBI and other related agencies with a request to respond to the petition on regulating cryptocurrencies. The original petition expressed concerns about the possible use of Bitcoin and other virtual currencies in cross-border transactions that cannot be monitored, making them attractive tools for cybercriminals and tax evaders.

Despite the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies in India, regulators have not yet decided how to regulate them. Until then, Bitcoin is not considered a legal tender in India. In a previous report, the chief economist predicts that Bitcoin in India will not become legal without being monitored by the government.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture in the H4 time frame. The price had made yet another higher high at the level of $11,758, but then dropped towards the support at the level of $10,495 and bounced from the golden trend line. The current main Elliott Wave count is still valid and the next best fit is abc Irregular/Running Flat Correction scenario that might reach the level of $8,990 again. The key support remains at the level of $8,352.

analytics5a25234be0157.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 4, 2017

analytics5a251aa08fec8.png

Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

analytics5a251ab777d05.png

Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hinders further bearish decline as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.

Trade Recommendations

The current price levels around 1.1900-1.1950 should be watched for a possible short-term SELL entry if the current signs of bearish rejection are maintained.

S/L should be placed above 1.2030. T/P levels to be located at 1.1850, 1.1700 and 1.1590.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 04/12/2017

The US Dollar gains on Monday supported by the adoption of the tax law by the US Senate. Nevertheless, the market is cautious. The Pound remains strong with hopes for progress in Brexit negation. On the stock market, it was red after the Friday's weak closing on Wall Street. Crude oil is growing in the USA.

On Monday 4th of December, the event calendar is light in important news releases, but market participants will keep an eye on Construction PMI data from the UK, Unemployment Change data from Spain and Sentix Investor Confidence data from the Eurozone. Later in the day, the last piece of data worth to watch is US Factory Orders release.

GBP/USD analysis for 04/12/2017:

The ongoing Brexit negotiations will be in focus today. The UK's Prime Minister Theresa May is set to have lunch with President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker. During the weekend, despite intense efforts, Theresa May and the Irish government have failed to reach a deal on the crucial Brexit issue of the Northern Ireland border. "The Irish government remains hopeful – but at this stage, it is very difficult to make a prediction," said an official. May will meet Juncker with the UK's final offer on the three main issues in the first round of Brexit talks – the Irish border, citizens' rights and the financial settlement.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. If the today's talk will be positive for the overall Brexit negotiations, Cable can appreciate further. So fat the price retraced 38% of the last internal swing up and it is bouncing from this level at .13424. The nearest technical resistance is at the level of 1.3550, but if violated, then the price might rally towards the swing highs at the level of 1.3657.

analytics5a25073176f60.jpg

Market Snapshot: GOLD is bouncing from support

The price of Gold is bouncing from the technical support at the level of $1,269, but still can't go back to the channel again. The market conditions are oversold, so the price can stay in the zone between the levels of $1,269 - $1,280 for some time now.

analytics5a25073ca9ad2.jpg

Market Snapshot: USD/JPY close to 61% Fibo level

The price of USD/JPY is retracing the recent swing down and now is trading close to the 61% Fibo at the level of 113.25. The market conditions are already overbought, so this might be a good level for the price to reverse and continue with the downtrend.

analytics5a250746460d9.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for December 4, 2017

The Dollar index held above its recent lows and made a higher low on Friday. Although last week's close was not perfect for bulls, it was not bad either. We start the week with Dollar strength and for bulls to continue to have control, price must break above 93.30 resistance.

analytics5a25063f22697.png

Black lines - bearish channel

The Dollar index is trying to break above the Ichimoku cloud. Price is already above the bearish channel and has already made a higher low last week. Bulls need to step in now and push price above the 93.30 resistance by the Ichimoku cloud. Breaking above the resistance will increase the chances of a push towards 95-96.

analytics5a25069eacea8.png

On a weekly basis, the Dollar index is showing reversal signs off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our primary scenario for some time now has been to reach 92.50 and reverse higher for a move towards the weekly Kumo resistance at 96-97. So we remain bullish. Important support is last week's lows. Bulls do not want to see that low broken.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for December 4, 2017

The Gold price has broken downwards. The price, as expected, got rejected below the $1,300 resistance area last week and is looking very bearish and ready to fall further towards our short-term $1,250 target. The Gold price bounced on Friday towards $1,285 as expected and is now re-testing recent lows.

analytics5a250550baf5c.png

Blue lines - bullish channel (broken)

The Gold price has also broken below the 4-hour channel as expected. Price bounced on Friday towards cloud resistance and got rejected. The trend is bearish. Support is at $1,270 and next at $1,260. I expect both to be broken this week. Resistance is at $1,287-97 area. Only a break above this area will cancel my short-term view for a push lower towards $1,250.

analytics5a25059bbd140.png

On a daily basis, we warned last week that a rejection at the Kumo (cloud) would be a bearish sign. The price also gave another bearish sign by closing last week below the kijun-sen. The price tried to bounce on Friday but got rejected at the kijun-sen and closed below it. Trend is bearish. Expect Gold to move lower. Only a move above $1,287 will make me reconsider my primary bearish scenario.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 4, 2017

analytics5a250370d4999.png

Wave summary:

On Friday, we stated that the break above 1.7408 opened two possible scenarios. The first was that an expanded flat was developing and in this case resistance near 1.7458 should protect the upside. We saw a spike to 1.7479 before a strong decline was seen, and this favor this scenario developing, over the alternate count calling for a direct rally towards 1.7988.

Resistance at 1.7479 should now cap the upside for a break below support at 1.7279 for more downside pressure towards 1.7077 and 1.7035 in wave c of iv before turning higher in wave v towards 1.7988.

R3: 1.7582

R2: 1.7479

R1: 1.7410

Pivot: 1.7279

S1: 1.7210

S2: 1.7149

S3: 1.7077

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 1.7450 with stop placed at 1.7485. We will place our take profit at 1.7050.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 4, 2017

analytics5a2501b723584.png

Wave summary:

The pivot point at 134.50 is still holding firm keeping our preferred count alive. This count shows that wave (D) completed in late October with the test of 134.50 and wave (E) is developing. The (E) wave should ideally decline to 123.43 to complete the huge triangle consolidation that has been developing since July 2008.

If, however the pivot point at 134.50 is broken that will indicate that wave (D) is still developing and more upside closer to 137.37 should be expected, before wave (E) will be ready to take over.

R3: 136.07

R2: 135.27

R1: 134.50

Pivot: 133.55

S1: 133.33

S2: 132.90

S3: 132.62

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 133.75 with stop placed at 134.55.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning Forecast 04/12/2017

Burning Forecast 04/12/2017

EURUSD: Buy for the breakthrough of 1.1940

In the morning, the dollar rose against all major currencies. Analysts explained that this was due to the adoption of the US Senate's bill on tax cuts - Trump's first serious case.

However, we believe that a reduction in taxes will lead to a weakening of the US dollar in the medium term.

Buy the euro on the break of the upper border of the daily range at 1.1940.

Stop-loss at 1.1895 - the target is 1.2080.

An alternative is to turn down and sell at the breakthrough of 1.1807 with the target of 1.1610.

analytics5a24f1a9710f6.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 04, 2017

USDJPYM30.png

USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair bounced, producing a bullish gap at the open of Asian trading hours this morning. Currently, the pair remains on the upside and is not far away from 112.87, the high of last Friday (December 1). The relative strength index has entered the 60s, showing continued upward momentum for the pair.

As long as the key support at 112.10 is not breached, the intraday outlook remains bullish, and the pair should advance toward the first upside target at 113.25.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 112.10 with a target of 113.25.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 112.10, Take Profit: 113.25

Resistance levels: 113.25, 113.65 and 114.00 Support Levels: 111.70, 111.35, 111.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 04, 2017

USDCHFM30.png

USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair remains on the upside above its support at 0.9760. Even though a technical retreat cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extent should be limited. The rising 50-period moving average should also play a strong support, and limit any downside room.

To sum up, as long as 0.9760 is not clearly surpassed, pair is likely climb to 0.9870 and 0.9900 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9760, Take Profit: 0.9870

Resistance levels: 0.9870, 0.9900, and 0.9935

Support levels: 0.9730, 0.9700, and 0.9655

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 04, 2017

GBPJPYM30.png

We will retain our previous analysis target. The pair posted a technical rebound and is now standing above its 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is turning up and calling for a new bounce. Last but not least, a strong support at 151.10 has formed, and should limit any downward attempts.

In these perspectives, as long as 151.10 is not broken, look for a new rise to 153.35, and then to 154 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 151.10 with the target at 149.90

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 151.10, Take Profit: 153.35

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 153.35, 154.00, and 154.60

Support levels: 149.90, 148.60, and 148

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY right on resistance once again, remain bearish

Price has shot down and bounced up to our selling area once again. We look to sell on major resistance at 112.70 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to at least 110.98 support (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance at 97% where we expect a strong drop from.

Sell below 112.70. Stop loss at 113.41. Take profit at 110.98.

analytics5a24e1b65ebcf.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD approaching major support, prepare to buy

Price is approaching major support at 1.2664 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) and we expect a bounce from this level up to at least 1.2844 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, breakout resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 3.9% where we expect a corresponding bounce from.

Buy above 1.2664. Stop loss at 1.2576. Take profit at 1.2844.

analytics5a24e17b7a6dc.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 04, 2017

NZDUSDM30.png

NZD/USD is under pressure. The pair posted a bearish gap this morning and also broke below its 20-period moving average. The key resistance at 0.6900 maintains the selling pressure on the prices. Besides, the relative strength index has just broken below its neutrality area at 50.

In conclusion, as long as 0.6900 holds on the upside, look for a new pullback to 0.6815 and 0.6790 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6930, 0.6945, and 0.6985

Support levels: 0.6815, 0.6790, and 0.6730

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for December 4, 2017

EUR/USD has been quite corrective recently in a range between 1.1850 to 1.1950 area. Today the market opened with a gap downwards which pushed the price towards 1.1850 support area. EUR/USD has been corrective as both currency in the pair seemed to have mixed economic reports lately which did not quite impress the market sentiment to lean on any direction whereas EUR has been struggling more because of the recent Germany issue which made the currency a bit weaker against USD. Today EUR Spanish Unemployment Change report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 54.3k from the previous figure of 56.8k, Sentix Investor Confidence report is expected to show decrease to 32.3 from the previous figure of 34.0 and PPI report is also expected to show decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.6%. Along with these economic reports today, Eurogroup meeting is going to be held where economic policies and economic health will be discussed which is expected to be quite neutral and have minimum impact on the market. On the USD side, today only Factory Orders report is going to be published which is expected to be negative at -0.3% from the previous positive value of 1.4%. This week is going to be a very high impact based period for USD as Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings reports are to be published which is expected to inject some volatility in the market. Moreover, this week ECB President Draghi is also going to speak about the economic development and upcoming policies on Thursday which is a day ahead of the USD high impact reports. To sum up, USD is expected to gain good momentum over EUR in the coming days as Rate Hike in this month is quite imminent and any positive high impact economic reports will increase the probability for the currency to gain over EUR in the coming days. This week the price is expected to get a directional bias for the coming days of the month where USD is expected to dominate EUR.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing at the edge of 1.1850 support level after opening the day with a gap. Friday candle was quite indecisive but a bearish body did signal that bears are in better form than bulls. In this scenario, if the price breaks below 1.1850 with a daily close today then we will be looking forward to a bearish move down towards 1.1660 support area to be reached in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.1950 resistance area the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

analytics5a24bbfd97b21.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Dec 04, 2017

EURUSD.jpg

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as PPI m/m, Eurogroup Meetings, PPI m/m, Sentix Investor Confidence, and Spanish Unemployment Change. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Factory Orders m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1926.

Strong Resistance:1.1919.

Original Resistance: 1.1908.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1897.

Target Inner Area: 1.1869.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1841.

Original Support: 1.1830.

Strong Support: 1.1819.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1812.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Dec 04, 2017

USDJPY.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the Consumer Confidence and Monetary Base y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Factory Orders m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.30.

Resistance. 2: 113.07.

Resistance. 1: 112.85.

Support. 1: 112.58.

Support. 2: 112.36.

Support. 3: 112.14.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for December 04, 2017

The bears have been taking the control of USDX across the board and it has tested the support level of 92.70. That level should give up in order to allow a leg to test the support zone of 91.85. On the positive side, if the index manages to rebound at the current stage, then it's likely to see a re-testing of the 200 SMA at H1 chart.

USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.60 / 93.98

H1 chart's support levels: 92.70 / 91.85

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 92.70, take profit is at 91.85 and stop loss is at 93.53.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 04, 2017

GBP/USD has reached a key resistance zone at 1.3541, where we could expect some pullbacks in order to correct the overall bullish bias in the short-term. If the pair manages to break above 1.3541, then we might expect a continuation to test fresh highs, with the nearest target lying at 1.3612. MACD indicator still supports the idea of another leg lower.

GBPUSDH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3541 / 1.3612

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3437 / 1.3303

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3541, take profit is at 1.3612 and stop loss is at 1.3466.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for December 4, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD met a considerable challenge last week –which threatened the recent bullishness in the market. However, bulls were able to save the bias on Thursday as they pushed price slightly higher. Further bullish movement is possible this week, for the price could target the resistance lines at 1.1900, 1.1950 and 1.2000. A stubborn opposition would be met the resistance line at 1.2000.

1.png

USD/CHF: This pair made an effort to rally last week, but the rally effort was rejected around the resistance level at 0.9850 (which was briefly breached to the upside, and price could not stay above it). There was a large pullback on Friday, which put more emphasis on the recent bearish bias. There cannot be a meaningful rally on the USD/CHF as long as the EUR/USD is able to showcase its strength.

2.png

GBP/USD: The persistent bullish effort on GBP/USD has already paid off, and the price has gained 460 pips since November 13. There was a slight bearish correction on Friday, after which price would resume its bullish journey, targeting the distribution territories at 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3600.

3.png

USD/JPY: The bias on this currency trading instrument is essentially bearish. After testing the supply level at 114.50 in November, the price went downwards by 330 pips. Nonetheless, there was a rally attempt last week, which would enable sellers to enter the market at great prices, the provided price goes southwards from here.

4.png

EUR/JPY: This cross is choppy in the long-term and bullish in the short-term. The price went downwards on Monday and Tuesday, reaching the demand zone at 132.00 and then going upwards on Wednesday. The supply zone at 134.00 was reached before there was the ongoing bearish correction. The price should go upwards this week, reaching the supply zone at 134.00, breaching it to the upside, and putting more emphasis on the novel bullish bias.

5.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar weakens against the backdrop of political threats

Adjusted data on US GDP in the third quarter were better than expected, the growth rate was revised to 3.3%, and by all means, the US economy is recovering successfully. This is despite the fact that the Congress has not yet approved the draft of the tax reform.

However, the main factor of positive growth is not so much the growth of the economy as the growing consumer activity. According to the updated data, in the third quarter, the personal consumption expenditure index was 1.4%, and not 1.3%, as previously reported. This was released the day after the data on personal incomes in October also outperformed forecasts, with growth at 0.4% against expectations of 0.3%.

The market reacted positively to the reports, while the data on business activity in the manufacturing sector released by ISM on Friday made it possible to revise the forecast for US GDP in the fourth quarter to reach 3.5%, reflecting generally confidently positive expectations.

At the same time, it should be noted that the positive dynamics of consumer activity is not due to fundamental changes. The simplest calculations show that the growth of expenses is not based on revenue growth, but on the growth of lending, which in turn reflects certain hopes associated with the future tax reform. The growth of expenses in terms of the potentially able-bodied population is growing steadily, while personal savings are falling and have already reached the pre-crisis level of 10 years ago.

analytics5a224b27c2b98.png

Thus, a certain revival of the consumer sector is associated with hopes for a reduction in tax pressure. If, however, the approval of the reform program in the Congress faces difficulties, then in this case one can expect a sharp decline in consumer activity and an increase in deflationary expectations.

The grounds for such fears are: On Friday, the Senate postponed the vote on the tax reform, the stumbling block was the report of the Tax Committee, from which it follows that the reform will not lead to filling the budget and the deficit will remain at the level of at least $1 trillion in a 10-year perspective. The economic analysis of the tax reform plan by the Minister of Finance Mnuchin has not yet been released. Therefore, the financial effect of the reforms may not be the same as the government represents. Before the markets closed on Friday, the final vote in the Congress did not take place, which ultimately contributed to the depreciation of the dollar.

Another reason for the fall of the dollar is that former adviser to Donald Trump, Michael Flynn, who was accused earlier of providing false information to the FBI, is prepared to testify against Donald Trump. If this news is confirmed, the opponents of Trump will have good reasons for initiating the impeachment procedure, which will automatically put an end to the tax reform program.

This scenario can lead to a rapid reduction in inflation expectations and will call into question the possibility of the Fed to implement the outlined plan for the growth rate in 2018, and the dollar will drop sharply against the yen and the euro. Fears remain hypothetical, but the dollar is losing momentum.

On Monday, the dynamics of the dollar will be determined. First of all, by political news related to the passage of the tax plan through the Congress and the development of the situation with Flynn. Acceptance of the tax plan is of fundamental importance in the light of approaching the date of December 8. Namely, before this date, the law on financing state institutions due to borrowing is in force.

On Tuesday, the ISM report on business activity in the services sector will be published, after a rapid growth in August-October, a slight slowdown is expected, but the level of PMI will remain high and can support the dollar.

In general, the dollar remains the favorite, and any positive news can contribute to a new wave of buying. However, one must assume that the probability of a smooth phased solution of all the issues at the beginning of this week is not very high, and therefore the growth of the euro to 1.20 appears quite certain.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

OPEC supports commodity currencies

Eurozone

According to IHS Markit, business activity in the eurozone's manufacturing sector has been at its highest level since April 2000, reaching 60.1 points in November against 58.5 points a month earlier. Record growth is noted for all leading economies of the eurozone. In particular, Germany achieved the second highest result in the history of recordings since 1996. In France - it reached a maximum of 7.5 years, in Italy - for 81 months. Also, it should be noted the high growth in employment, investment in equipment is growing steadily, which implies continued growth in 2018.

analytics5a225fd2d80a6.png

By the end of the week, the euro was not able to reach the 1.20 mark, but there is every reason to assume that this is not the limit. The next meeting of the ECB will be held on December 14, and the market is increasingly inclined to the fact that the regulator will present a plan to taper the current soft monetary policy and may announce an upcoming rate hike.

On Tuesday, a PMI report in the services sector showed expectations are positive, the euro has its own driver, and growth may continue if there is news of a tax breakdown through the US Senate. If the tax plan is approved, then the dollar will regain its leadership, and the euro will not be able to overcome the level of 1.20, trade in this case will go into the lateral range from downward trends.

United Kingdom

The consumer confidence index from Gfk decreased to -12 points in November, with the indicator already being in negative territory for 20 months. This is the lowest value since July 2016 immediately after the Brexit vote, and reflects consumer concerns about the impact of the recent rate hike by the Bank of England. Retail trade is in decline, as household incomes lag behind inflation.

analytics5a225fe696571.png

On Tuesday, the PMI index will be published in the services sector, and it is expected to decline relative to November. Until Friday this is the only significant publication, so macroeconomic factors will have a limited impact on the pound rate. More important is the situation with the negotiations on Brexit, the agreement on the first phase of the negotiations, which includes questions on migration policy, the Irish border and the exit draft law, should be reached already on Monday, otherwise the EU before the planned summit will not be able to decide on the transition to the next phase. Reports of a positive outcome of the talks can provide significant support to the pound.

Growth of the pound against the dollar will slow down, probably decline at the beginning of the week to 1.34, further dynamics will depend on news from the US.

Oil

Oil grows after OPEC and a number of countries - independent oil producers - agreed to extend the agreement on limiting production to the end of 2018. A reduction of 1.8 million barrels per day should, according to OPEC +, stabilize prices at levels not lower than current ones. The decision was taken unanimously. Moreover, the agreement will now be joined by Nigeria and Libya, which will limit production to the levels of 2017. The unanimous decision demonstrates the determination of OPEC + to keep the situation under control and reduces the risks of uncontrolled collapse.

The next meeting of OPEC + will be held in June. A number of analysts believe that at this meeting, in case of an increase in oil above $ 65/bpd, it may be decided on the phasing out of restrictions, but more likely other - OPEC + will demonstrate a unified approach and expressed their willingness to cooperate and further that the de facto fix the new reality of the oil market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com