Analysis and forecast for USD/JPY on June 29, 2020

Hello!

At last week's trading, the dollar/yen currency pair showed growth, strengthening by 0.32%. It is worth noting that the situation in the world has not improved. Several countries have seen a surge in the second wave of COVID-19, including the United States itself. Also, mass riots related to the murder of a black American, George Floyd, have not subsided in the United States. Investors are also concerned about the tension in US trade relations with China and the European Union. Nevertheless, at last week's trading, market participants gave their preference to the US dollar, rather than the Japanese yen. In my opinion, the main significance here was technical factors. Let's figure it out.

Weekly

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At the trading on June 22-26, the bears intended to continue the pressure on the quote, however, the landmark and strong level of 106.00 was not up to them. It was near this significant mark that the pair found strong support and began to actively recover.

The current trading started with a swing and is still going without a certain direction. It is understandable - at the beginning of the week, all the most important events are still ahead. Among a large number of macroeconomic statistics, it is immediately worth highlighting data on the US labor market, which will be published this Friday, at 13:30 (London time). I will describe this event in more detail closer to its release date, but for now, we will return to the technical picture and indicate the nearest goals at the top and bottom on the weekly timeframe.

So, if the upward dynamics continue, the USD/JPY bulls will have to once again test the strong resistance zone of 107.45-107.65 for a breakdown, where the maximum values of the last two weeks were shown. A break of 107.65 will open the way to a strong technical area of 107.92-108.11, where the lower border of the Ichimoku indicator cloud, the Tenkan line, and the 50 simple moving average passes. Do not forget about the important level of 108.00, which has repeatedly had a significant impact on the course of trading. Thus, we can assume that the closing of the current weekly trading above 108.11 will indicate the superiority of the bulls over their opponents and the subsequent growth, the goals of which will be: 108.44 (upper limit of the cloud), 108.86 (89 EMA) and 109.25, where a strong 144 exponential moving average passes. Only the breakdown of the 144 EMA will make it possible to retest the sellers' resistance at 109.85 and the most important psychological and technical mark of 110 yen per dollar.

To implement a bearish scenario for this currency pair, a true breakout of the level of 106.00 and the closing of weekly trading under this mark is necessary. If the downside players manage to complete this task, the road will open to another important mark of 105.00. Judging by the last weekly candle, with a fairly long lower shadow, I am more inclined to expect growth from USD/JPY.

Daily

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In the daily timeframe, there is an extremely interesting picture, which indicates the uncertainty of market participants regarding the further price movement of this instrument. In particular, this is indicated by the last two daily candles with long shadows and insignificant bullish bodies. This is especially true for the Friday candle for June 26.

Now about the role of the 50 simple moving average, which acts as a very strong resistance. As you can see on the chart, the dollar/yen can not go up 50 MA, starting from June 15, that is, almost half a month.

At the moment, the situation for USD/JPY bulls is complicated by the presence of the lower border of the Ichimoku cloud, which passes at 107.23.

In turn, support is represented by the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which runs at 106.77. Only a break of this mark and fixing under it will open the way to a strong support zone of 106.08-106.00.

Trading recommendations for USD/JPY:

As noted above, the last weekly candle showed that the bulls turned the situation around and took control of it. Although it is too early to draw definite conclusions right here and now, I am more inclined to expect the implementation of an upward scenario.

I recommend considering purchases after short-term declines in the area of 107.10-107.00. This week, we will return to this currency pair and, if necessary, make changes to this trading recommendation.

Good luck!

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The Fed's measures to support companies in the US

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In the first half of June, the Federal Reserve bought $ 428 million worth of bonds from individual companies such as Walmart and AT&T, major oil companies such as Philip Morris International Inc and the utility subsidiary of billionaire Warren Buffett of Berkshire.

The goal of the program was to guarantee that companies can continue to finance themselves, leaving the option of closing the business out of the question. The program is supported by the US Department of Treasury, which provided investment capital to cover any losses in the event of corporate default.

The largest purchases of bonds were from AT&T and the UnitedHealth Group, while issuers in the energy sector accounted for about 8.45% of bonds purchased.

These bond purchases, as well as other emergency programs of the Fed will be scrutinized by lawmakers at a hearing on Tuesday. Questions may focus on individual bonds purchased, and on the fact that the support of bond markets used by large firms is currently active and receives support from the Fed in billions.

Meanwhile, the Fed also conducted a survey in Dallas regarding oil production, the result of which revealed that 82% of oil companies stopped production in the second quarter of 2020, while 18% did not.

As for the resumption of production, 36% said they are planning to do it at the end of June, while 20% answered that they will do it at the end of July. 18% answered that they will resume production at the end of August, while 4% plan to do it at the end of September. The remaining 13% said that they will resume production at the end of November or later.

Another important issue is the target price value of oil before companies reopen the closed oil wells. According to the survey, 51% believe that the return of closed wells requires a price of $ 41 per barrel, while 27% said that a price from $ 41 to $ 45 per barrel is needed. 6% answered $ 51 per barrel or higher.

Among the remaining 49%, who believe that a price of $ 40 per barrel or lower is required to resume production, 30% said that from $ 36 to $ 40 per barrel, while another 15% said that from $ 31 to $ 35 per barrel. A clear minority of 4% noted $ 30 or less.

The most gloomy and sad result of the survey was the attitude of E & P leaders to drilling. When asked "When do you expect US drilling and pumping to return to levels up to COVID-19?", 44% said that somewhere between the fourth quarter of 2020 and the fourth quarter of 2021. In particular, a bold 3% said that in the fourth quarter of 2020, while only 8% responded with the first quarter of 2021. Another 14% answered the second quarter of 2021, while 13% said they were in the third quarter of 2021. 6% responded "in the fourth quarter of 2021".

Of the remaining solid majority of 55%, 39% said "no earlier than 2021," and an incredibly pessimistic 16% said "never."

When asked why they stopped production altogether, 94% said that prices were too low, while another 4% said that this was because refineries or pipelines had abandoned oil production. The remaining 1% explained that storage capacity is not available.

When asked if they expect their firms to remain solvent next year, 95% of managers answered yes, while 5% answered no.

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Latest COT report (Commitments of Traders). Weekly prospects for EUR/USD

The latest COT report (Commitments of Traders). Weekly prospects for EUR/USD

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The situation has slightly stabilized. The latest COT report (Commitments of Traders) showed an increase in open interest in the euro again (585,421 against 574,939). After fixing a certain part of the profit and some thought, global players make plans again and increase their positions. In the statistics of the general report, an unbalance increase in short positions by the Commercials group is noteworthy. Players who have information about the real state of Affairs in the economy, actively increased bearish positions almost four times more. The trend in the preferences of this group of players has not changed for a long time, despite some different behaviors. For hedgers in the euro, priority and dominance of bearish interests remain. Therefore, in the long-term, COT reports allow us to draw conclusions about long-term plans, revision and change of the trend on such timeframes as a week and a month is not expected yet. In the financial report, the key indicator of the distribution of forces of the largest dealers (Dealer intermediate) retains the preponderance of forces in favor of long positions in the Euro, but it is no longer a peak value and has begun to change its structure since the last time. These circumstances constrain confidence in the percentage of positions (58.9 - 4.7) and require additional confirmation.

Main conclusion

The activity and effectiveness of the players to increase, which allowed them to achieve good results in the daily half-time to outline the opportunities for the weekly and perform the upward correction on the monthly time interval, has been stopped. Its further prospects are either unclear or not yet available.

Technical picture

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The indicated conclusions find some consonance in the technical analysis of the situation. The downward corrections of the daily and weekly timeframes did not receive development last week and take the form of consolidation. This week, we are closing the month. The next COT report will just contain information on the final conclusions and decisions for the month of June. In June, the EUR/USD pair tested the monthly medium-term trend (1.1360), as a result, the shape of the monthly candle will be important, especially significant in this case - the size of the upper shadow.

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In the meantime, the pair at the lower time interval is fighting for the key H1 boundaries, which are joining forces at 1.1217-54 (central Pivot-level of the day + weekly long-term trend) today. The analyzed technical indicators are ready to support further strengthening of the bullish positions, but the main advantage of forces on H1 is still maintained on the side of the players to decline. On the other hand, the resistance within the day can be noted 1.1261 and 1.1283, while support for the classic Pivot levels are located today at 1.1217 - 1.1195 - 1.1173 - 1.1151.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)

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Instaforex Daily Analysis - 29th June 2020

Today we take a look at NZDUSD and see how we are going to play the bounce!

We use Fibonacci retracements, extensions, support/resistance, momentum and trend lines to identify trading opportunities in this exciting pair today!

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 29, 2020

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair was trading around the area of 1.2345 a week ago. Today, the level of 1.2396 represents a weekly pivot point in the H1 time frame.

The pair has already formed minor resistance at 1.2396 and the strong resistance is seen at the level of 1.2478 because it represents the weekly resistance 1.

So, major resistance is seen at 1.2478, while immediate support is found at 1.2314. If the pair closes below the weekly pivot point of 1.2396, the GBP/USD pair may resume it movement to 1.2478 to test the weekly support 1.

From this point, we expect the GBP/USD pair to move between the levels of 1.2314 and 1.2478.

Equally important, the RSI is still calling for a strong bearish market as well as the current price is also below the moving average 100. As a result, sell below the weekly pivot point of 1.2396 with targets at 1.2314 in order to form a double bottom.

Major support sets at the level of 1.2250. For that in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario as long as the price is above the level of 1.2250.

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EUR/USD: Economic recovery in the US may slow down due to the surge in coronavirus incidence. Further growth of the euro

The recent weak macroeconomic statistics on the US economy lowered the demand for the US dollar. It canceled out all the positions the currency gained last week amid the news of worsening trade relations between the US, China and Europe.

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The only bright report was the data published by the Ifo Institute regarding employment in Germany, which according to their calculations, continued to rise in June due to many companies becoming less pessimistic about the employment situation in the country. The index determined to 92.3 points, much higher than the previous value of 88.3 points in May. Although many companies still conduct lay-offs, the tendency of it is gradually slowing down especially in the service sector. Some are also observed in the trade and manufacturing sectors.

A rather important report on Germany's inflation will be released today, the value of which may set the direction of the euro this week. The data should turn out to be better than the forecasts, since a lower value may become a problem for the central bank of Germany, which will lead to the weakening of the European currency.

Meanwhile in the US, the macroeconomic reports published last Friday turned out to be weak, which disappointed traders, as it became clear that a quick recovery is out of the question. Consumer spending was less than the value predicted by economists, which led to the weakening of the US dollar against risky assets. The recovery of the US economy is clearly not at the level that many expected. According to the data published by the US Department of Commerce, consumer spending in the US rose by 8.2% in May, while economists expected the figure to rise 8.7%. The resumption of activity after a two-month quarantine in connection with the coronavirus pandemic did not become as rapid as predicted, but thanks to stimulating measures by the government, the growth became very impressive.

Household income declined at a slower pace, also thanks to the financial support. Recent data revealed that revenues in May decreased by 4.2%, despite the increasing concerns on the rate of the coronavirus since 33 states in the US observed a huge jump in coronavirus cases last week. A number of companies were forced to close again due to it.

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It is not surprising that with such factors, the Americans' assessment on the US economy worsened again at the end of June. The report of the University of Michigan revealed that in the four weeks that passed, consumer sentiment fell from 78.9 points to 78.1 points. Apparently, another surge in coronavirus infection will put serious pressure on the final index of consumer activity for June this year.

Meanwhile, the current conditions index rose to 87.1 points at the end of June, while the expectations index jumped from 65.9 points to 72.3 points in May.

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As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the upward correction of the European currency may continue at the beginning of this week, if the data on German inflation turns out to be better than economists' forecasts. However, the deterioration of trade relations between China, Europe and the US, as well as the surge in coronavirus infections, may still curb the demand for risky assets. Thus, the bulls need to work on a technical breakout from the resistance level of 1.1280, as such occurrence will open an opportunity to push the quotes up to the highs last week in the area of 1.1345. But if there are no active purchases above the level of 1.1280, the bears will try to form the upper boundary of a new downward channel, which will return the quotes under the support level of 1.1235. It will increase the pressure on the EUR/USD pair and lead the quotes back to the weekly lows in the areas of 1.1200 and 1.1160.

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Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on June 29, 2020

Good day, dear traders!

Last week, the pound/dollar currency pair traded quite volatile and generally justified the forecast of a week ago. Let me remind you that it was recommended to sell the pound/dollar pair after corrective pullbacks to the price zone of 1.2500-1.2525. This pullback took place and even exceeded the expected levels. In the course of trading on June 22-26, the pair rose to 1.2541, then turned to decline, ending the week's trading at 1.2332. This is significantly lower than the important technical and psychological level of 1.2400, which kept the bears' pressure at bay for a long time.

Weekly

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Last week started positively for the pair, and the "Briton" showed strengthening. However, fears of a surge in the second wave of COVID-19 increased, which led to an increase in demand for the US currency. This is despite the fact that in the United States itself, the number of coronavirus infections remains quite high and riots continue, caused by the murder of an African-American George Floyd by police. In general, the situation in the US is far from calm. In addition to mass riots and the demolition of a number of monuments to the founding fathers, President Donald Trump has found time to escalate trade relations not only with China, but also with the European Union. However, this did not prevent the US dollar from strengthening against a number of major competitors, including the British pound.

If we return to the technical picture on the weekly chart, then, despite the candle with a very long upper shadow and the closing price below 1.2400, a small bearish body and the shape of the candle itself, it is not possible to give an unambiguous answer about the further direction of the quote. I'll explain the point. According to its shape, the last candle is a pure-looking "Tombstone" model, however, it can hardly be considered a reversal, because there is nothing to expand, by and large. If such a candle appeared at the end of an upward movement, for example under 1.2800, then it would have an exceptional reversal value and strength. As practice shows, after the appearance of such candles, approximately in the middle of the trading range, it is not uncommon for the subsequent strengthening of the exchange rate to occur.

If the situation for the pound/dollar currency pair develops in this way, the nearest target at the top will be the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which runs at 1.2442. After that, the pair's bulls will need to raise the quote above the important psychological level of 1.2500 and break through the strong resistance of sellers at 1.2541, where the highs of the previous week were recorded. Closing weekly trading above 1.2541 will return bullish sentiment for the pound/dollar pair, and open the way to 1.2600, where the 50 simple moving average passes.

The bearish scenario will continue if the important and strong support zone of 1.2322-1.2311 breaks through, where the minimum values of last week were shown and the Kijun line passes. In this case, the next targets of the bears for the pound will be 1.2300, 1.2246 and 1.2200.

Daily

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On the last trading day of last week, the pound/dollar fell significantly, however, the pair failed to break through the support of 1.2322. The price bounced back from this level and Friday's trading ended at 1.2332.

Today, at the end of this article, the pound/dollar pair shows quite good growth, trading near 1.2370. If the rise continues, its nearest target will be the 50 simple moving average, which runs at 1.2410. Above, the resistance is represented by Friday's highs at 1.2435, and after passing this mark, the pound bulls will have to test the strength of the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which is at a strong technical level of 1.2450. However, in my opinion, the pair will face the most important resistance on the approach to the iconic psychological mark of 1.2500, under which 89 EMA and the Kijun line converged.

To resume the bearish scenario, players on the downside need to break through support in the area of 1.2322-1.2313, and then consolidate under the level of 1.2300. If this can be done, I do not exclude the price entering the limits of the Ichimoku indicator cloud, the upper limit of which is at 1.2280.

Trading recommendations for GBP/USD:

The most likely scenario is that the pair will continue to show a downward trend. This means that the main trading idea for GBP/USD will be considered sales, which I recommend considering after short-term rises in the price zone of 1.2435-1.2475. Above, to open short positions, it is worth looking at the pair's attempts to return above 1.2500. However, we will talk about this in subsequent articles on this tool.

This week, a lot of important macroeconomic data will be published, which will be mentioned on the day of their release. If you want to define today's events, you should pay attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, which will take place at 10:30 London time.

Good trading!

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EUR/USD. June 29. COT report. Neutrality and calmness of major players. Bull traders are starting to buy the euro currency

EUR/USD – 1H.

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Hello, traders! On June 26, the euro/dollar pair started the recovery process after a two-day drop in quotes. Thus, the graphical picture allowed us to build an upward trend line, which again characterizes the current mood of traders as "bullish". At least as long as the quotes do not secure under this line, it is the purchases that will be more attractive. A bit of optimism was presented to traders on Friday by Christine Lagarde. The ECB Chairwoman said that perhaps the worst part of the crisis caused by the coronavirus epidemic is over. However, Lagarde also spoke of a slow and long recovery of the European Union's economy to pre-crisis levels. Thus, her words can be interpreted in different ways. But there was little information on the most important and interesting topics on Friday. Better to say, it wasn't even there at all. In America, rallies and protests continue, Donald Trump continues to prepare for the election and has already begun to travel to the cities of America with speeches to their voters, and the coronavirus in the country continues to spread, as rallies are just "what you need" to spread the infection.

EUR/USD – 4H.

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On the 4 hour chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair on Friday continued the process of falling, but today, Monday, thanks to a new rising trend line on the hourly chart has fulfilled turn in favor of the European currency and began the process of growth towards the corrective level of 76.4% (1,1294). Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator. The rebound of the pair's exchange rate from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a resumption of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1167).

EUR/USD – Daily.

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On the daily chart, the euro/dollar pair again performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and closed under the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1261), which allows traders to expect a fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.1147). However, the growing number of cases of coronavirus in the US may stop the growth of the dollar.

EUR/USD – Weekly.

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On the weekly chart, the eurodollar pair rebounded from the lower line of the "narrowing triangle", which still allows traders to expect growth in the direction of the 1.1600 level (the upper line of the triangle"). However, the lower charts are now in a more bearish mood, so working out this goal is being postponed for now.

Overview of fundamentals:

On June 26, the European Union hosted a speech by Christine Lagarde, about which I wrote above, and in America – reports on changes in the volume of personal income and spending of Americans in may were released. However, none of these events is not sufficiently interesting to traders.

News calendar for the United States and the European Union:

Germany - consumer price index (12:00 GMT).

June 29 news on the European Union and America in the calendar is not listed. Only the German consumer price index will be released, but it is unlikely to interest traders. Thus, we can assume that today the information background will be empty.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

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The latest COT report, released last Friday, showed almost nothing. The "Non-commercial" group, which is the most important group and is considered to be the one that drives the market, has opened a total of only 5,000 contracts, of which 3,000 are long and 2,000 are short. The "Commercial" group (hedgers) were more active and opened almost 11,000 short-contracts, however, as we can see, in the period from June 17 to 23, the euro/dollar pair was trading first down, then up, then down again. In other words, it is impossible to conclude that the mood of traders during this period of time was the same and did not change. And the changes in the balance of forces that the latest COT report showed do not allow us to draw any conclusions for the long term.

Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:

Today, I recommend buying the euro currency with the goal of 1.1294 and 1.1350 (the last peak), since an upward trend line was built, above which the pair is currently trading. I recommend opening new sales of the pair today with the target level of 50.0% (1.1065), if the closing is performed under the trend line on the hourly chart.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.

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GBP/USD. June 29. COT report. "Calm news" in the UK and US. Traders are preparing for new purchases of the British currency

GBP/USD – 1H.

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Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair continues a very weak decline process. The previous downward corridor changed the angle of inclination and now again holds the pair inside, describing the current mood of traders as "bearish". At the same time, the growth of the US dollar is completely unconvincing, and other charts allow the pair to grow in the near future. The background information in the current circumstances could help traders decide. However, in the UK, it seems that everyone is on vacation. There is no news from Boris Johnson, the parliament or David Frost that is worthy of attention. Brexit negotiations continue to remain suspended in the air, and there are no prerequisites for them to be resolved positively for both sides. Well, I've already told you about the American news. They are now almost non-existent. At least those that could be of interest to the traders and reflected on the chart.

GBP/USD – 4H.

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On the 4-hour chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a fall under the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2358), however, today it performed a reversal in favor of the British, after the formation of a bullish divergence in the MACD indicator, and began the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2444). Thus, the further fall of the British pound is canceled until the low divergence is passed by traders. In this case, the drop in quotes may resume in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.2250).

GBP/USD – Daily.

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On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a new reversal in favor of the US currency and anchored under the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.2462). Thus, the process of falling can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2215).

GBP/USD – Weekly.

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On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a false breakdown of the lower trend line and rebound from it. Thus, until the pair's quotes are fixed under this line, there is a high probability of growth in the direction of two downward trend lines.

Overview of fundamentals:

On Friday, the UK again did not have any economic reports. In the US, there were several reports of average significance, but none of them could get traders to trade more actively.

News calendar for the US and UK:

UK - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech (09:30 GMT).

On June 29, the UK will host a potentially important speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, but no more news and reports are scheduled for this day.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

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The latest COT report for the British pound was even less interesting than the euro report. Major market players trading the British pound were even less active during the reporting week. In total, the Non-commercial group opened only 3,500 new contracts. A more or less normal value is the number of 10,000 or more contracts. Thus, the global mood of major market players has not changed at all. In the last 10 days, as in the case of the euro, the British pound first fell, then rose, then fell again. The Non-commercial group was even less active, opening 2,500 new short contracts and closing 343 long ones. Well, the general changes for all groups of traders are completely depressing. Thus, the overall conclusion is disappointing. No special changes in the mood of major market players during the reporting week can be noted.

Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:

I recommend selling the pound today with the goal of 1.2250, if the last low of the divergence is passed on the 4-hour chart. New purchases of the pair can be considered with the goal of 1.2444 due to the bullish divergence. However, on the hourly chart, we have a downward trend corridor. Thus, the growth of the British dollar's quotes is in doubt. Much will depend today on what Andrew Bailey says.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on June 29, 2020

Well, it's time to sum up the results of the weekly trading on June 22-26 and forecast the development of events in the opening weekly trading session.

First of all, it is worth noting that at the trading of the past five days, the US dollar showed mixed dynamics concerning its main competitors.

As noted earlier, the main reason for the strengthening of the US dollar was the outbreak of the second wave of COVID-19 in the US states of Texas, Arizona, California, Florida, and Mississippi. The epidemiological situation remains difficult in Brazil, Mexico, India, as well as in some European countries, which were spared the first outbreak of the pandemic. There has been a sharp increase in the daily number of COVID-19 diseases.

In addition to the epidemic of a new type of coronavirus infection, investors were concerned about the escalated trade and political (Hong Kong) standoff between the United States and China, as well as tensions in trade relations between the United States and the European Union. Let me remind you that the White House administration is seriously considering increasing tariffs on goods from the EU's leading economically developed countries. It should also be noted that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has further lowered its forecasts for world economic growth this year.

Given all these factors, as well as the gradual recovery of the US economy, I would venture to assume that the US dollar will continue to enjoy increased demand from market participants as a protective asset. Let's see what the situation is on the price charts of the euro/dollar currency pair and start with the weekly timeframe.

Weekly

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Last week's trading started for the main currency pair on a positive note. As a result of the initial growth, the quote rose to 1.1348, after which there was a change in price dynamics. The level of 1.1350 has been noted as technically very strong more than once. This mark has repeatedly influenced the euro/dollar exchange rate. This pattern was confirmed during the trading last week.

Now let's pay attention to the last weekly candle. First, it has formed a very long upper shadow, which may indicate the end of the upward dynamics. Secondly, last week's trading ended within the cloud of the Ichimoku indicator, which also can not be considered a positive factor for players to increase the rate. Most often, after the formation of such candles, there is a decrease in the exchange rate. At the same time, I do not exclude attempts to once again bring the price up from the Ichimoku cloud, which most likely will not be successful. And another important point. Above the upper border of the cloud, only two weekly candles were closed, and for true consolidation, it was necessary to close three. On this basis, the upward exit from the cloud can be considered invalid or false.

Now, to regain control of the main currency pair, the bulls need to overcome many significant resistances. After the quote is withdrawn up from the Ichimoku cloud, it is necessary to break through the strong resistance of sellers in the area of 1.1348-1.1353, pass up the 200 EMA, which is located at 1.1376, and then overcome the resistance at 1.1383, 1.1422 and 1.1494. Only after a true breakdown of the last mark and fixing above the most important psychological level of 1.1500, we can consider the market for euro/dollar bullish and expect further growth of the main currency pair. I would like to point out that these are very difficult tasks, and the market mood must change dramatically to achieve them.

It is more likely to assume a bearish scenario, which will confirm the breakdown of the 89 EMA (black) and the pair's exit down from the cloud. With this development, the nearest targets of sellers will be the Tenkan line (1.094), Kijun (1.1065), and 50 MA, which runs at 1.1044. At the same time, it is worth noting that near each of the indicated targets of a likely decline, the euro/dollar may find strong support and turn up. Or at least try to do it. In other words, from the price zone of 1.094-1.1044, there may be at least a rebound up.

In general, the situation for EUR/USD is extremely interesting and equally uncertain for positioning.

Today, after Friday's closing of weekly trading, I will only focus on the relevant timeframe, according to which, the bearish scenario has the greatest chances for its implementation. All the resistances listed in this article, as well as lower prices in the area of 1.1240-1.1260, can be considered benchmarks for opening short positions.

We will discuss the situation in more detail in the remaining periods in the next article. Regarding today's economic calendar, you can pay attention to data from the Eurozone on indices of economic sentiment, consumer confidence, and business optimism in the industrial sector. All these indices will be published at 10:00 (London time). A little later, at 13:00 (London time), Germany will inform market participants about changes in consumer prices. From the American statistics today, only data on unfinished transactions for the sale of housing can be distinguished, which will be published at 15:00 London time.

Good luck with trading!

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Trading recommendations for GBP/USD pair on June 29

From the comprehensive analysis side, you can see the update of the week's minimum, which confirmed the signal of price movement within the previous range, and now let's talk about the details.

The last trading week began with a corrective move from the mirror level of 1.2350, where amid local activity of long positions, it was possible to return to the area of 1.2500/1.2540. Buyers did not succeed in breaking the downward tact from the range level of 1.2770, thus at this point, there was a recovery process that led to a breakdown of the average level of the range of 1.2150 // 1.2350 // 1.2620 and, as a fact, to updating the weekly minimum.

Maintaining the previous range is undeniable and everyone knows about it, repeated price consolidation outside the level of 1.2350 indicates holding short positions, which will eventually lead market participants to the level of 1.2150, thereby completing the monthly cycle.

Regarding the theories of market development, there is still a high speculative mood, which does not allow you to plan strategic positions, so traders continue to use local operations, working from surge to surge in the price.

Analyzing the Friday trading day by the minute, you can record a round of short positions that occurred during the start of the European session, but the main speculative excitement aimed at a downward move appeared at 11:00 and lasted until 14:30 UTC+00. The next one was in the form of a pullback with a slowdown within the 1.2350 level.

In terms of volatility, an acceleration of 64% is recorded relative to Thursday, but in terms of average daily dynamics, everything goes on as usual. Speculative excitement continues to be at a high level, which leads to consistently high rates of activity, literally on a daily basis.

As discussed in the previous review, traders worked downward, which as a result brought them another income to the trading deposit.

The trading forecast from Friday regarding short positions coincided: sell positions are considered below 1.2400, with the prospect of a movement to 1.2350.

Considering the trading chart in general terms (the daily period), you can see that the downward spiral from the range of 1.2350 is considered the main one in this measure, due to which the price of the frame returned to the previous range of 1.2150 // 1.2350 // 1.2620.

Friday's news background contained data on personal income and expenditure in the United States, which were conditionally neutral. Regarding statistics, here the income of Americans declined by 4.2%, while expenses rose by 8.2%.

In terms of the general information background, no matter the day, there is a new comment regarding the divorce proceedings of Brexit. So, this time, the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in an interview with Handelsblatt, said that there is no legal basis at this time for extending the transition period in the fall.

"The deadline for applying for an extension expires at the end of June. Therefore, it is clear that Great Britain will leave the single market on December 31." added Ursula von der Leyen.

The head of the European Commission noted that agreeing on the details of the agreement after October is unthinkable for us and would require a longer stay of the UK in a single market.

The coordination of all the details of the deal in theory should start now, so that everything can be done before the end of the year.

In turn, during a telephone conversation with his Polish counterpart, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson reiterated that England was ready to leave the EU without a trade deal if the parties were unable to agree. Johnson noted that London will try to conduct constructive negotiations with Brussels, but all this seems to be empty words and work for the public.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have a package of data on the lending market in the United Kingdom, where the number of approved mortgage loans may be as much as 25 thousand against 15.85 thousand in the previous month. The volume of mortgage lending in May may be reduced by about 1-2 billion pounds, while consumer lending can be reduced by 2.5 billion pounds.

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Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we can see a partial recovery process relative to Friday's decline, where the quote almost came close to a variable value of 1.2400, after which there was a slowdown.

The downward tact from the range level of 1.2770 is still relevant in the market, where traders are considering further movement in the range structure 1.2150//1.2350//1.2620.

It can be assumed that after a short pullback, the quote will return to the area of the mirror level of 1.2350 again, where it will form a variable fluctuation, relative to which the potential of the downward movement will be understood.

Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:

- Consider sell deals lower than 1.2310, with the prospect of a move to 1.2200-1.2150

- Consider buy deals if the pullback goes into correction and the quote manages to consolidate above 1.2400, towards 1.2450.

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Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of time frames (TF), we see that indicators of technical instruments on hourly and daily periods signal sales, by updating lows and consolidating prices within the mirror level.

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Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(June 29 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 63 points, which is considered not a small indicator for the start of the European session. It can be assumed that this is not the end of the dynamics and with the arrival of Americans in the market, activity will continue to grow.

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Key levels

Resistance Zones: 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2885 *; 1.3000; 1.3170 **; 1.3300 **; 1.3600; 1.3850; 1.4000 ***; 1.4350 **.

Support Zones: 1.2350 **; 1.2250; 1.2150 **; 1.2000 *** (1.1957); 1.1850; 1.1660; 1.1450 (1.1411); 1.1300; 1.1000; 1.0800; 1.0500; 1.0000.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** Psychological level

**** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment

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Is the pound being held by the L-shaped recession?

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The nearest prospects for the British currency look either vague or rather gloomy for many experts. Analysts fear that the pound will not have enough strength to actively recover and it will be held captive to a long recession.

The L-shaped recession is considered the longest and most difficult to overcome in the analytical community. According to authoritative currency strategist, Robert Albertson, such a recession lasts several years, unlike other force majeure periods, which are limited to one and a half years. Experts fear that such a fate awaits the pound after the British economy plunges into an L-shaped recession. Societe Generale analysts said that the pound will have to fight for a place under the financial sun and wait for the recovery for more than a year and a half.

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The Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoAML) also denies the chance of further growth. Earlier, the bank's currency strategists said that the pound behaves as the currency of emerging markets, and not as one of the leading currencies of the Big Ten (G-10). BoAML focuses on the "neurotic" behavior of the pound, which demonstrates the worst qualities inherent mainly in the currencies of developing countries. A double deficit appears among these qualities, which consists of the general deficit of the state budget and the current account of the balance of payments.

According to BoAML, the UK economy is most vulnerable to such failures. Analysts expect an increase in the double budget deficit of the British economy (up to 10% of production) in 2021. This is much more than in several emerging markets. The current deplorable state has led to a long economic downturn and impressive government spending.

The current situation, along with the threat of an L-shaped recession, can significantly worsen the dynamics of the pound. An additional provocateur of the collapse of GBP, along with the grim consequences of the pandemic of the coronavirus COVID-19, could be the problem of Britain's exit from the EU. Many analysts doubt the possibility of a trade deal between London and Brussels that will suit both sides. A favorable outcome would help the British economy avoid a total subsidence by the end of this year, but this probability is fading every day.

Headwinds of obstacles for the pound are increasing and current difficulties are accumulating, according to BoAML. The Bank believes that the completion of the Brexit transition period, planned in December 2020, but not implemented properly, will lead to a drastic revaluation of the value of the GBP. Experts fear a significant subsidence of the pound, which has become a captive to the L-shaped recession, the exit from which will be very difficult.

Analysts remind that the process of economic "recovery", taking place in the form of L, is actually a long recession, in which recovery occurs at a very slow, almost "turtle" pace. At the same time, the UK is at great risk of a second wave of pandemic, which could rapidly cover its economy and "paralyze" the pound.

At the moment, the indicated currency is experiencing enormous changes in dynamics, for which it received the definition of "nervous" from BofAML experts. On Monday, June 29, the GBP/USD pair is trading in the range of 1.2377 - 1.2379, trying to climb higher. These are extremely low levels, indicating a noticeable subsidence of the British currency. It can be noted that last week, the GBP/USD pair finished at 1.2418 - 1.2420, and it was rising even higher before that.

Despite the possible gloomy prospects for the pound, experts are counting on the GBP's resistance to negative external influences. Experts believe that the British economy has a chance to avoid the L-shaped recession and gradually restore current losses. In the case of the implementation of such a scenario, it will be able to circumvent the "sharp corners" in the form of failures in the economy and Brexit, directing the vector of its movement to an upward trend.

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Control zones of USDCHF on 06/29/20

The downward movement is still the main one in the medium term. Conditions have been created to continue strengthening the Swiss franc. The first target of the fall is the June low, the test of which will determine future plans for trading. The growth from two weeks ago led to the test WCZ 1/2 0.9552-0.9536. Since there was no consolidation above this zone, the probability of a reversal pattern remains below 25%.

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To enter the sale from current levels, it is necessary to form the absorption pattern at the level of M30 or H1. It is important to understand that the probability of retesting the low of last week is at 75%.

To break the current structure and enter an upward momentum, it will be necessary to consolidate the pair above the WCZ 1/2 during one of the US sessions. If this happens, the next growth target will be the weekly CZ 0.9736-0.9702, which will allow you to open purchases this week.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 29, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings, one of the main traditional Japanese financial institutions, has presented a plan to develop a security tokens exchange. Tokai Tokyo is already an investor in Huobi Japan.

According to Nikkei, the first step on this journey was for Tokai Tokyo to invest in Hash Dash Holdings to use the company's knowledge to develop the stock market. Hash Dash's mission is to use Blockchain technology in the financial industry to issue digital securities and provide commercial services on smartphones.

The planned stock exchange will trade in tokenized real estate, and Tokai Tokyo, Hash Dash and ICHX TECH will explore this sector by digitizing Japanese real estate and trading them in iSTOX, the Singapore digital stock exchange. They also investigate the digitization of IP addresses and corporate bonds.

Tokai Tokyo hopes to connect the planned Japanese stock exchange with iSTOX so that investors can seamlessly buy and sell digital assets on both stock exchanges, enabling Japanese corporations to raise money on the Singapore stock exchange.

Last December, Tokai Tokyo invested 500 million yen (around $ 4.7 million) in Huobi Japan, a licensed cryptographic exchange in Japan. It was also planned to start an IEO to help corporations raise money. The company was also considering trading some social currencies at IEO Huobi.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETh/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $215.17, which means the key short-term technical support located at the level of $217.65 had been violated. The bounce has been continued for some time now, but so far it was rather shallow and the price is starting to reverse again. If the intraday support located at the level of $221.31 is clearly violated, the odds for another low are high as the momentum is still weak and negative. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $209.89.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $273.84

WR2 - $260.74

WR1 - $240.04

Weekly Pivot - $227.40

WS1 - $206.35

WS2 - $194.36

WS3 - $173.30

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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AUDJPY facing bearish pressure, potential for further drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 73.84

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit :73.24

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low support

Stop Loss:74.34

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing high resistance

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 29, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Over the past few years, cryptocurrencies have attracted a lot of interest from institutional investors. Encryption has become quite popular due to more rules on the digital asset market. However, since most economies work with digital resources, there has also been pressure to strengthen regulations so that cryptocurrencies do not become a safe haven for money laundering and other illegal activities. Recent AML regulations and FAFT guidelines aimed to strengthen cryptography regulations.

However, as digital assets are gaining popularity in the world of finance, traditional financial institutions such as banks have now come under the eye of dealing with cryptocurrency users and stock exchanges regarding virtual assets. A recent Ciphertrace report looked at how virtual asset laws can affect banks. The report notes that 57% of these Virtual Asset Providers (VASPs) had weak or porous KYC processes. This is a greater threat because a weak KYC can lead to bad entities being able to launder virtual assets through stock exchanges operating as fiat off-ramps according to the report.

It is not clear, however, whether large banks are willing or willing to cope with exposure to crypto assets and at the same time ensure that there is no illegal activity in space. Although the number of cryptocurrencies has increased significantly over the years, mainstream banks still have reservations about users and cryptographic transactions. In the recent past, Bank of America raised concerns and kept customers from using debit cards to buy cryptocurrency. However, at the beginning of the Fifth Anti-Money Laundering Directive or AMLD5 it was pointed out that banks cannot refuse to provide services to sectors and must analyze cryptocurrencies on a case-by-case basis.

According to data provided by Ciphertrace, almost 74% of Bitcoins transferred in "from exchange to exchange" transactions have been transferred cross-border and pose a significant risk of money laundering. Given this scenario, FATF noted that illegal users of virtual assets (VAs) may, for example, benefit from the global reach and transaction speed that VA provides, as well as from inadequate regulation or supervision of financial activities and VA suppliers in various jurisdictions, resulting in inconsistent legal and regulatory rules of the game in the VA ecosystem.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $8,795, which means the key short-term technical support located at the level of $8,858 had been violated. The bounce has been continued for some time now, but so far it was rather shallow and the price is starting to reverse again. If the intraday support located at the level of $8,971 is clearly violated, the odds for another low are high as the momentum is still weak and negative. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $8,565.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,465

WR2 - $10,072

WR1 - $9,509

Weekly Pivot - $9,126

WS1 - $8,593

WS2 - $8,191

WS3 - 7,623

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 29, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of 1.2313, so the 1:1 market geometry targets has been hit. The bounce from the level of 1.2328 is targeting the nearest technical resistance located at the level of 1.2406, but the key short-term resistance is still seen at the level of 1.2466. Despite the oversold market conditions, the momentum remains weal and negative as the RSI indicator hovers below its fifty level. The larger time frame trend remains bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2667

WR2 - 1.2600

WR1 - 1.2441

Weekly Pivot - 1.2377

WS1 - 1.2213

WS2 - 1.2143

WS3 - 1.1969

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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Fractal analysis of main currency pairs on June 29th

For the euro/dollar pair, the price is close to the cancellation of the downward structure of June 23, for which a breakdown of 1.1290 is necessary. For the pound/dollar pair, we are watching the descending structure of June 24. The level of 1.2475 is the key support for the bottom. For the dollar/franc pair, monitor the formation of initial conditions for the top of June 23. The level of 0.9508 is the key resistance. For the dollar/yen pair, the development of the upward trend of June 23 is expected to continue after the price passes the noise range 107.23 - 107.37. For the euro/yen pair, the range of 119.91 - 119.67 is a key support for the top of June 22. For the pound/yen pair, the next goals were determined from the descending structure on June 23. The level of 132.03 is the key resistance, while the level of 133.08 is the key support.

Forecast for June 29:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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The key levels for the euro / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.1289, 1.1254, 1.1232, 1.1183, 1.1154, 1.1132, 1.1071 and 1.1029. Here, we are following the formation of the descending structure of June 23. At the moment, the price is in correction. Whe continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1183. In this case, the goal is 1.1154. The price passing the noise range 1.1154 - 1.1132 will lead to the development of a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 1.1071. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1029. We expect an upward pullback upon reaching which.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1254 - 1.1289. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the formation of an ascending structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.1349. We expect the initial conditions for the top to be formed to this level.

The main trend is the formation of the downward structure of June 23, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1255 Take profit: 1.1287

Buy: 1.1292 Take profit: 1.1346

Sell: 1.1183 Take profit: 1.1155

Sell: 1.1130 Take profit: 1.1080

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The key levels for the pound / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.2541, 1.2475, 1.2436, 1.2405, 1.2298, 1.2259, 1.2208 and 1.2180. Here, we follow the descending structure of June 24. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range 1.2298 - 1.2259. The breakdown of the last level should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 1.2208. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2208 - 1.2180.

A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2405 - 1.2436. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper movement. Here, the target is 1.2475. This level is a key support for the bottom and the price passing this level will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the top. In this case, the potential target is 1.2541 .

The main trend is the descending structure of June 24

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2405 Take profit: 1.2434

Buy: 1.2437 Take profit: 1.2475

Sell: 1.2298 Take profit: 1.2260

Sell: 1.2257 Take profit: 1.2208

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The key levels for the dollar / franc pair on the H1 scale are: 0.9550, 0.9533, 0.9508, 0.9489, 0.9468, 0.9458 and 0.9443. Here, we are following the formation of the initial conditions for the top of June 23. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.9489 - 0.9508. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.9533. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9550. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A consolidated movement is possible in the range of 0.9468 - 0.9458. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deeper correction. In this case, the target is 0.9443. This is the key support level for the top.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of June 23

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9490 Take profit: 0.9505

Buy : 0.9510 Take profit: 0.9533

Sell: 0.9457 Take profit: 0.9445

Sell: 0.9440 Take profit: 0.9422

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The key levels for the dollar / yen pair on the scale are : 108.28, 107.95, 107.70, 107.37, 107.23, 106.94, 106.79 and 106.56. Here, we are following the construction of potential for the top of June 23. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the price passes the noise range 107.23 - 107.37. In this case, the target is 107.70. A short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation are in the range of 107.70 - 107.95. We consider the level of 108.28 to be a potential value for the top. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 106.94 - 106.79. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 106.56. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is building potential for the top of June 23

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.37 Take profit: 107.70

Buy : 107.72 Take profit: 107.92

Sell: 106.94 Take profit: 106.80

Sell: 106.75 Take profit: 106.56

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The key levels for the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.3813, 1.3766, 1.3709, 1.3674, 1.3604, 1.3566, 1.3526 and 1.3487. Here, the price forms the potential for the top of June 23. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3674. In this case, the target is 1.3709. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.3709 will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3766. The potential value for the top is the level 1.3813. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3604 - 1.3566. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 1.3526. This is a key support level for the top and the price passing this level will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first potential target is 1.3487.

The main trend is the formation of the upward potential of June 23

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3674 Take profit: 1.3707

Buy : 1.3711 Take profit: 1.3765

Sell: 1.3604 Take profit: 1.3570

Sell: 1.3564 Take profit: 1.3526

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The key levels for the Australian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are : 0.7031, 0.6986, 0.6967, 0.6944, 0.6909, 0.6841, 0.6809 and 0.6757. Here, we follow the local rising structure of June 19th. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6909. In this case, the first target is 0.6944. The breakdown of which will lead to a movement to the level of 0.6967. The price passing the noise range 0.6967 - 0.6986 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.7031. Price consolidation is near this level.

The resumption of the development of a downward trend is possible after a breakdown of the level of 0.6840. Here, the first goal is 0.6809. The breakdown of which should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the potential target is 0.6757.

The main trend is the local upward structure of June 19

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6910 Take profit: 0.6942

Buy: 0.6945 Take profit: 0.6967

Sell : 0.6840 Take profit : 0.6810

Sell: 0.6807 Take profit: 0.6760

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The key levels for the euro / yen pair on the H1 scale are: 121.87, 121.53, 121.03, 120.55, 119.91, 119.67 and 119.26. Here, we are following the ascending structure of June 22. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 120.55. In this case, the target is 121.03. Price consolidation is near this level and its breakdown should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 121.53. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 121.87. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 119.91 - 119.67. This range is a key support for the top and the price passing this level will favor the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first potential target is 119.26.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of June 22

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 120.55 Take profit: 121.00

Buy: 121.05 Take profit: 121.50

Sell: 119.90 Take profit: 119.70

Sell: 119.65 Take profit: 119.26

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The key levels for the pound / yen pair on the H1 scale are: 135.13, 134.40, 133.78, 133.08, 132.02, 131.49, 131.13 and 130.63. Here, we expect the development of the downward structure from June 23 after the breakdown of the level of 132.03. In this case, the target is 131.49. Price consolidation is in the range of 131.49 - 131.13. We consider the level of 130.63 to be a potential value for the bottom. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

The level of 133.08 is a key support for the downward movement and its breakdown will lead to the formation of local initial conditions for the top. In this case, the first goal is 133.78. Price consolidation is near this level. In general, a pronounced ascending structure is expected to the level of 134.40.

The main trend is the descending structure of June 23

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 133.10 Take profit: 133.75

Buy: 133.80 Take profit: 134.40

Sell: 132.00 Take profit: 131.50

Sell: 131.13 Take profit: 130.65

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for June 29, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the lower channel line around the level of 1.1190 and continues to move towards the level of 1.1346 again. The bearish pressure is still present on chart, so if bulls will not violate the nearest technical resistance located at the level of 1.1282, then the swing top will not be hit. On the other hand, any violation of the level of 1.1236 makes the rally towards the swing low located at the level of 1.1168 highly possible, so please keep an eye on the current developments at this market. Please notice the overbought market conditions and weak momentum support the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1484

WR2 - 1.1410

WR1 - 1.1289

Weekly Pivot - 1.1235

WS1 - 1.1124

WS2 - 1.1056

WS3 - 1.0936

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 29 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Pound can quickly win back Friday's fall.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

A fairly good signal was formed for selling the British pound last Friday, which I noticed in my review for the afternoon. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bears were active after GBP/USD fell to the level of 1.2395, which resulted in a sharp sell-off to the support area of 1.2334, where I advise you to open long positions. At the moment, the task of pound buyers is to return the resistance of 1.2395, since quite a lot depends on this level. If bulls are able to cope with this area after the Bank of England governor gives his speech, then after consolidating above this level, you can look at long positions to continue the growth of GBP/USD to the area of a high of 1.2463 I recommend taking profits. The long-term goal is to test the 1.2536 area. In case the pound falls in the morning, buyers will need to protect support at 1.2334, forming a false breakout there will be a signal to buy the pound. If there is no activity on the part of the bulls, it is best to postpone long positions until the low of 1.2290 and 1.2237 is updated and open long positions from there immediately for a rebound while expecting a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Pound sellers should not postpone their return to the market, as Friday's downward movement may indicate the completion of the bearish market formed on June 10 this year. Protecting resistance at 1.2395 and forming a false breakout on it will be a signal to open short positions, the main purpose of which will be a break and consolidation below support 1.2334 in the morning. Such a scenario will be an additional signal to sell GBP/USD based on the continuation of the bearish market, which will cause the pair to test the lows of 1.2290 and 1.2237, where I recommend taking profits. If sellers don't take active steps in the resistance area of 1.2395, it is best to postpone short positions until the high of 1.2463 is updated with the aim of a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a further decline in the pound.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.2313 will increase pressure on the pound. You can count on upward correction only after a breakout of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2395.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20.
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
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Investors are looking forward to the publication of new data on the US economy (continued consolidation of EUR/USD and USD/JPY

The end of the month showed how sharply the mood of investors can change under the influence of an external factor – coronavirus infection.

If the month started on the wave of markets continuing to play the topic of opening the economies of economically developed countries after the introduction of previously strict quarantine measures, then the situation began to change markedly in the opposite direction by the end of the month. The reason for this was a sharp increase in the spread of COVID-19 in America. At the same time, Black protests played a significant role in this, as well as the growth of chaos in the country amid the rise in the number of robberies and violence. The continuation of these processes has not come to naught and remains an important negative factor. Of course, the worsening situation with the coronavirus pandemic could not pass unnoticed. It led to partial profit-taking in equity markets and increased demand for safe haven assets, including the US dollar, government bonds of economically strong countries, and gold.

At the moment, there is an ironic picture in the market. The data from economic statistics in the United States indicate a steady economic recovery, which in the absence of coronavirus pressure would definitely stimulate the growth of demand for risky assets while weakening investor interest in protective assets. But this does not happen precisely because of continuing fears that the continuation of the severe pandemic in America could force local authorities to tighten quarantine measures again, especially since several regions and large cities in the country have introduced restrictions. So New York and New Jersey imposed restrictions on visiting from outside and bars have closed in Florida. So far, the market ignores not only clear signs of recovery of the national economy, but also D. Trump's statements that "the economy will not be closed again".

Between two really existing processes - the restoration of economic activity and fears of COVID-19, investors choose the latter. In this regard, the question arises, how long can all this go on?

In our opinion, if the consequences of the pandemic do not lead to severe social upheaval and chaos in the United States, the process of restoring the growth of the US economy in the second half of the year will stimulate an increase in demand for stocks of companies, a decline in market interest in government bonds and the dollar as a safe haven currency. Our scenario for a prospective weakening of the US currency is still valid. We believe that in July, its decline against the basket of major currencies, will resume.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair remains in the range 1.1165-1.1350. The pair is expected to remain in this range until the publication of new data from the US labor market.

The USD/JPY pair is also in the range of 106.50-107.65. The uncertainty factor for the further development of the situation around the impact of COVID-19 on the US economy is likely to force the pair to remain in this range until the end of this week.

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Control Zones for USDCAD on 06/29/20

On Friday last week, a monthly control zone test took place, so the sharp increase in supply was not surprising. Today the pair is trading near WCZ 1/4 1.3644-1.3636. If the trading closes below the specified zone, the first reversal pattern will be formed.

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The goal of the fall will be WCZ 1/2 1.3572-1.3557, which will allow us to obtain a favorable risk-to-profit ratio for transactions on sale.

Continued growth will occur if the WCZ 1/4 test leads to the formation of the "absorption" pattern and a sharp increase in demand. It is important to understand that in the next couple of days a downward correctional pattern is more likely to form.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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