Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 29, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. Currently at 96.592, the US dollar index is firmly holding after rebounding from a 2-week low of 96.288 seen on Monday as traders are watching closely if the US Federal Reserve gives any hints on the interest rate direction at the FOMC to be concluded at early hours of the Asian session on Thursday. Having rebounded from the level just below 123.00 seen on Monday, USD/JPY maintains its bullish bias trading above both the 20- and 50-period intraday moving averages. The intraday RSI is mixed around the neutral level of 50 lacking downward momentum. As long as 123.30 holds as the key support, the first upside target is set at 123.95 (around the high of July 27); and the second target, at 124.35 (seen on July 23).

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics is reaching overbought levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 123.95 and the second target at 124.35. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 123. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 122.70. The pivot point is at 123.30.

Resistance levels: 123.95 124.35 124.75

Support levels: 123 122.70 122.40

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 29, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The yellow metal remains unchanged from yesterday, and is trading around the levels of $1,090.00/93.00 at the moment. Please note that the trade direction remains "sell on rallies" now. Note that $1,132.00 is fibonacci 0.618 resistance fo a drop between $1,167.00 and $1,075.00. It is therefore recommended to initiate short positions around the levels of $1,130.00/32.00. Immediate support is seen at $1,075.00 (interim) followed by $1,052.00, $1,030.00, and lower while resistance is seen at $1,130.00/32.00 (fibonacci) followed by $1,175.00 and higher respectively. Bears would remain in control until prices stay broadly below $1,175.00.

Trading recommendations:

Flat for now. Look to sell rallies through $1,130.00/32.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 29, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish bias. The pair is consolidating below its 20-period and 50-period intraday MAs. The intraday RSI is below its neutral area at 50%. Nevertheless, a support base has formed around 0.9585, which should limit the downside potential. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. As long as the key support at 0.9585 is not broken, look for a technical rebound to 0.9635 and even 0.9675 in extension.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the RSI and the MACD is in bearish mode. The price is below its 20- and 50-day moving averages.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9635 and the second target at 0.9665. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9535. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.95. The pivot point is at 0.0.9585.

Resistance levels: 0.9635 0.9665 0.97

Support levels: 0.9535 0.95 0.9465

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 29, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to trade in a higher range. The pair is trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period intraday MAs. A support base has formed around 0.6650, which should limit any downside potential. In addition, the bias remains bullish. As long as 0.6650 holds as the key support, look for an opportunity to move further upside to 0.6740 first. A break above this level would call for further advance to 0.6770. Alternatively, a break below 0.6650 would turn the intraday outlook to negative and call for a drop to 0.6625 and even 0.6595 in extension.

Technical comment: The intraday RSI is above its neutrality level at 50.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6740 and the second target at 0.6770. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6625. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6595. The pivot point is at 0.6650.

Resistance levels: 0.6740 0.6770 0.6815

Support levels: 0.6625 0.6595 0.6535

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Technical analysis of Silver for July 29, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is trading aroundthe level of $14.70 at the moment, testing its 50-day simple moving average as seen on the H4 chart. Please note that a push through $14.80 would move the price towards $15.00, and $15.30 subsequently in coming trade sessions. It is hence recommended to remain long with risk at the level of $14.25 now. Immediate support is seen at the level of $14.40/50 followed by $14.00/25, $13.00, and lower while resistance is seen at the level of $15.00 (interim) followed by $15.30/40 (fibonacci 0.618), $15.80/90, and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at $14.25, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 29, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in an upper range. The pair stays above its key support at 192.90 and is moving sideways. Further upside is therefore expected with the next horizontal resistances and overlaps set at 194.30 (a high hit on July 17) and then at 194.70. Only a break below the key support at 192.90 would open the way to further weakness towards a bottom at 1945 at first. The second alternative target is set at 191.44 (a low hit on July 27).

Technical comment:

The intraday RSI stands above 50 and is well directed.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 194.35 and the second target at 194.70. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 192. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 191.45. The pivot point is at 192.90.

Resistance levels: 194.35 194.70 195.35

Support levels: 192 191.45 190.85

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 29, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair has been trading between 136.20 and 137.00 levels for 2 sessions. Overall prices have been moving towards higher highs and higher lows since the moment when they hit a low at 134.00. Please note that the pair is testing the interim support line at the moment. A pullback to 135.00/50 can take place before rallying through the levels of 139.50/140.00 and higher. It is recommended to initiate long positions on a pullback towards 135.00/50. Immediate support is seen at 135.50 followed by 134.80, 134.00, 133.00, and lower while resistance is seen at 138.20/50 followed by 139.00, 140.00, and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate long positions around the level of 135.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 29, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair seems to be setting up for a push towards 1.5200 and subsequently towards 1.5400. Intraday pullbacks are possible and could be considered as opportunities to go long. Bulls should remain in control until prices stay above 1.4800. It is hence recommended to hold/initiate fresh long positions, with risk at 1.4800 for now. Immediate support is seen on the H4 chart view around 1.4960 followed by 1.4800, 1.4550, 1.4450, and lower, while resistance is seen at the level of 1.5200 followed by 1.5400 (fibonacci extensions) and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Buying dips is a safe strategy, stop is at 1.4800.

Good luck!

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Gold: analysis for July 29, 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the level of $1,096.00. According to the daily time frame, we can observe weak price action and small real body. According to the H1 time frame, a fake breakout of our support level at $1,086.00 is taking place in the background. The price got back into our trading range between the levels of $1,086.00 and $1,118.00. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the level of $1,127.00, Fibonacci retracement at 50% at the price of $1,141.00, and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of $1,157.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,098.00

R2: 1,100.00

R3: 1,103.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,092.50

S2: 1,090.70

S3: 1,087.50

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold at this stage since we have a fake breakout in the background.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 29, 2015

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Overview:

  • The USD/CAD pair broke the resistance and found support at the same key level (1.2768), so the support has already set at the level of 1.2768 in the H4 chart. Equally important, the trend is bullish and the the price is above the support found on July 16, 2015. We expect a range of between the levels of 1.2768 and 1.3102 this week. The price is expected to move from the support level of 1.2768 to the first resistance at 1.3000 today. Therefore, the USD/CAD pair started showing signs of bullish market from the level of 1.2768. Consequently, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.2768 with the first target at 1.2966 and continues towards the level of 1.3000. It should be noted that the level of 1.3000 represents minor resistance. Also, the last bullish wave will start at the point of 1.3102, which represents the double top. Moreover, the same level is coinciding with the 00% Fibonacci retracement levels in the H4 and daily charts. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, hence it will of the discernment to set your stop loss at the 1.2730 price.
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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for July 29, 2015

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Overview:

  • The AUD/USD pair rose from the level of 0.9230 prolongation further to 0.87345. The price is placed below 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels since yesterday. Also, it should be noted that the price has formed a strong support level at 0.9230. Futhermore, this pair has still trapped between 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels and and 00% (0.7345 and 0.7256) in the H1 chart. For this reason the market will start showing bearish signs again in order to indicate bearish opportunity from the level of 0.7345 with targets at the strong support around 0.7283. Meanwhile, bears were forced to pull back below this area. Therefore, this level will form strong support in order to indicate a bearish opportunity below it (0.7283) to continue towards the double bottom at the level of 0.7256. However, there is a new intraday bearish outlook today: if the pair closes below 0.7256 (the double bottom), the market will call for downtrend to move towards 0.7223 with a view to form a new double bottom in the same time frame.
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EUR/NZD: analysis for July 29, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the level of 1.6550. In the daily time frame, we can observe a strong supply bar but in a volume below the average. The pair broke the upward trendline, which is a sign that buying EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky and that we may see a bearish phase. The resistance level at 1.6805 is held successfully. Support level is seen at the level of 1.6340. The short-term trend is bearish, but the mid-term trend is still bullish. I am waiting for larger liquidity and stronger price actions to confirm further direction.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6730

R2: 1.6800

R3: 1.6925

Support levels:

S1: 1.6485

S2: 1.6410

S3: 1.6285

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD and watch for potential selling opportunities. Strong support is around the level of 1.6340.

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Global macro overview for 29/07/2015

Global macro overview for 29/07/2015:

Another series of economic data from UK has just been release. Overall mortgage approvals rose to 66.582K against the forecast of 66.000K and 64.826k in the prior period. The net consumer credit rose to the level of 1.22 bln against the forecast of 1.1 bln and 1.057bln in the prior period. The data suggests that more British people buy houses and spend more money on household debts, which means the economy might be expanding.

This data, together with yesterday's higher-than-expected GDP numbers ( 0.7% q/q; 2.6% y/y), are making the pound to move above the short-term golden trendline, eyeing the important resistance at the level of 1.5669.

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Global macro overview for 29/07/2015

Global macro overview for 29/07/2015:

The highly anticipated FOMC meeting minutes and rate decision is the most important event of the day. The Fed is highly unlikely to rise the short-term interest rates. But reading the FOMC statement might give traders some clues about further policy outlook. Those are the most important things to pay attention to:

- rates should stay on hold - it is highly unlikely for Fed to rise the interest rates for the first time since 2006, but policy makers might give hints whether this move is approaching by updating its view of the economy and central bank inflation targets

- job market assessment- the recent data from US job market turned out to be better than expected, so any upbeat statement that the unemployment numbers are getting close to the policy makers assessment might signal the rate hike is on table soon

- inflation assessment - the inflation annual target for FED is 2% and there is no rate hike possible without meeting this target number

- economic growth assessment - strong consumer and household spending should be in focus for policy makers if they want to consider to raise the interest rates, but the recent weak reading on retail sales might temporary limit any enthusiastic outlook for this part of the economic data, hence: no rate hike

- 10-0 streak breakout - the recent voting on FOMC meetings were unanimous and approved by 10 to 0 vote, but on the last meeting one of the policy makers was ready to raise the rates. Please watch for any 10-0 pattern breakout on the upcoming meeting

The market is trading slowly ahead of the meeting, with EUR/USD testing from the upside the recently broken golden trendline at the level of 1.1061.

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USDX technical analysis for July 29, 2015

The US Dollar Index is a bit stronger than the previous days but traders need to be very cautious today as we expect volatility to rise after the FOMC meeting tonight. The US Dollar Index is trading right above the short-term support. I prefer to be neutral during the days like this and wait for an opportunity to take a position after the FOMC meeting.

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Black lines - bullish channel

The US Dollar Index is trading right on top of the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The index is also trading below the Ichimoku cloud. Yesterday, it tried to enter the cloud, reached the kijun-sen (yellow indicator), and got rejected. The price pulled back towards the lower boundary again and now we see another bounce towards the cloud. USDX is also trading around the 38% Fibonacci support. With the FOMC meeting tonight we will see a breakout of the support or a strong upward bounce. The levels to watch for are 96.30 and 97.65.

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Blue line - resistance

The US Dollar Index is trading below the kijun-sen (yellow indicator). Next support is seen at 95.85 at the tenkan-sen (red indicator). The price is in danger of making a false breakout and a deeper correction towards the Ichimoku cloud support at 90. I would expect things to clear up tonight.

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Gold technical analysis for July 29, 2015

Gold price continues to trade sideways in a short-term neutral trend. The price remains above recent lows, and we can identify a possible inverted head and shoulders pattern being formed with the neckline at $1,105.

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Green lines - IHS projection

Blue line - long-term trend line resistnace

Gold price continues to trade below the Ichimoku cloud and below the downward sloping trend-line resistance. Short-term resistance is found in the area of $1,104-$1,106 where the neckline and the Ichimoku cloud are found. Support is at $1,077.

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Blue line - long-term broken support

Red lines - projection of price

The breakdown below the long-term trend-line support has produced an important sell signal with targets around $1,000. Gold price fell to $1,077 and bounced towards $1,100 again. This could be the start of a back to $1,130. A rejection at the level of $1,130 or lower will imply more downside should be expected. Bears should be very cautious as I see many chances for this back-test to happen.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 29, 2015

General overview for 29/07/2015 09:50 CET:

Because the alternative count on the hourly chart looks more convenient now, let's take a look at this count on the H4 chart. A 6-year high at the level of 1.3055 had been violated and the market reached a new high. Nevertheless, with this Elliott wave labeling we can clearly see that there is one more wave up missed - wave 5 black of wave 5 green. The dynamic regression channel confirms this view as it is still pointing upwards. Please remember that the count on the hourly chart (main count) is even more bullish than this one, so we can not rule out more appreciations of US dollar.

Support/Resistance:

1.3100 - Swing High

1.3055 - 2009 High

1.3026 - Weekly Pivot

1.2978 - Intraday Resistance

1.2952 - WS1

1.2910 - Intraday Support

1.2839 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening buy orders only if the level of 1.2978 is violated with SL below the level of 1.2910 and TP at the level of 1.3026 with a possible upside extension.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 29, 2015

General overview for 29/07/2015 09:20 CET:

The corrective cycle is getting more complex and time-consuming. Currently, the market is range bounded between the intraday support at the level of 136.41 and intraday resistance at the level of 137.09. The lower channel line is providing the dynamic support as well, but any breakout lower will result with immediate test of the weekly pivot at the level of 135.60.

Support/Resistance:

137.67 - WR2

137.10 - Intraday Resistance

136.86 - WR1

136.43 - Intraday Support

135.60 - Weekly Pivot

134.77 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should close buy orders from yesterday and wait for another upside breakout to produce another chance to enter the market. The best level to place a buy stop order is at the level of 137.10 with tight SL (15-20 pips) and TP at the level of 137.63.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 29, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair lost some of the gain made on Monday. However, the bullish bias is not yet over, until the support line at 1.0950 is crossed to the downside. In case the bullish attempt is resumed, the resistance line at 1.1100 would be tested again. It could possibly be breached to the upside.

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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument went above the resistance level at 0.9650 briefly and later moved below it. In order for the current bullish bias to continue making sense, the resistance level should be broken to the upside again. Another resistance level at 0.9700 is the target for bulls this week.

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GBP/USD: The cable succeeded in going upwards so far this week. This upward movement has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and the price could go further upwards, reaching the distribution territories at 1.5650 and 1.5700. Unless the accumulation territory at 1.5500 gets broken to the downside, short trades would be irrational on the cable at present.

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USD/JPY: this market should be abandoned right now until there is a clear directional movement. There are mixed signals in the market and this could be obfuscating, but things would become predictable soon.

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EUR/JPY: the market is bullish, and long trades make sense right now. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level of 50, showing the bulls' domination. It is projected that bulls will aim for the supply zones at 137.50 and 138.00, but this would be possible only after the supply zone at 137.00 gets first broken to the upside.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 29, 2015

The Canada Industrial Product Price Index rose 0.5% in June after a 0.5% increase in May. Of 21 commodity groups, 15 were up, 4 were down, and 2 were unchanged.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved in June, declined in July. The Index stands at 90.9 now, down from 99.8 in June. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, US economy delivered negative readings.

Technical view: The pair formed the large distribution pattern between 1.3050 and 1.3100. This will be confirmed if the pair falls below 1.2900.

The monthly resistance is seen at 1.3063 and weekly resistance is seen at 1.3050. The pair must close above 1.3100 to sustain the current uptrend. In case bulls faile to do so, gates to 1.2840 and 1.2800 will be open. A daily close below 1.2800 selling accelerates towards 1.2550.

In the H1 chart, the pair broke below bearish h&s pattern, indicating fresh selling below 1.2900 towards 1.2875 and accelerates below 1.2870 towards 1.2840.

Intraday risky buying is available above 1.2950 with targets at 1.2965, 1.2980, and 1.3000.

A daily close above 1.3060 will enable bulls to try to retain their grip in coming days.

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Technical analysis of USDX for July 29, 2015

Ahead of the FOMC meeting, USD is under pressure. Investors took profits on its recent gains. The index closed below 20Dsma, but managed to hold above the 100Dsma.

Deutsche Bank strategist Dominic Konstam: market showed "concern for the Fed's policy failures," yield curve flattening and a decline in the stock market and commodities is evidence, based on the dollar the Fed's rate hike, "is to bring down inflation effect" ; the Fed's first rate hike will be postponed until 2016 because of "the risk of a premature rate hike far outweigh the risk of waiting."

HSBC: Federal Reserve coming closer to the interest rate hike, a stronger dollar, low inflation, China's and India's weak demand for physical gold and other factors weigh on gold prices.

Technical view: The 50Dsma is found at 96.00 and 100Dema is seen at 95.60. Intraday support is found at 96.10 and 96.00. The weekly support is seen at 96.30 (Monday's low). On an intraday basis, in case if bulls lose the level of 96.00, the index is likely to drag towards 95.70 and 95.30. It is likely to close above 95.60 by the end of the day. Until the index closes above 95.60, buyers will enjoy the upper hand.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 29, 2015

The cable managed to extend gains for the 3rd session in a row after the UK GDP figures had hit the wires.

Analysts are optimistic about the UK economy. The gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. The GDP is estimated to increase by 0.7% in the second quarter (Apr to June) 2015 compared with the 0.4% growth in the first quarter (Jan to Mar) 2015.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved in June, declined in July. The Index stands at 90.9 now, down from 99.8 in June. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, US economy delivered negative readings.

Today, traders eye the FOMC meeting. We expect impulsive moves during a day.

Technical overview:

The cable managed to bounce from the swing support of 1.5450, encouraging bulls to close above the 20&50Dsma at yesterday's session.

Earlier, the cable made a strong ceiling at 1.5700. It broke a 3-month ascending trendline. It is still trading below that level. In the four-hour chart, the cable fell below the bearish h&s pattern.

The 20Wsma is found at 1.5340, the 100Dema is found at 1.5450, the 200Dsma is found at 1.5410, and the 100Dsma Is found at 1.5300. The weekly trading pattern is framed between 1.5440 and 1.5700.

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.5635, 1.5675, and 1.5700. Support is found at 1.5590, 1.5560, and 1.5545. Selling is available below 1.5530 towards 1.5490 and 1.5470. Buying is available only above 1.5630 with targets at 1.5650, 1.5675, and 1.5690.

If bulls manage to hold the level of 1.5440, they will head towards 1.5600 and 1.5700. Bulls will come back on track only if they manage to close above 1.5700.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 29, 2015

Ahead of the FOMC meeting, USD is under pressure. Investors took profits on its recent gains. The euro utilized this window edging higher to a two-week high at 1.1129. At yesterday's session, the pair rejected at 50Dsma and managed to close above 20Dsma.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved in June, declined in July. The Index stands at 90.9 now, down from 99.8 in June. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, US economy delivered negative readings.

Technical view: The pair rejected twice at 50Dsma, but managed to close above 20Dsma. In the H1 chart, the pair has been reaching higher highs and higher lows.

But, the pair has been making lower lows and lower tops, fell below the lower end of the ascending trendline in the four-hour chart.

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1100, 1.1130, and 1.1170. Support is found at 1.1050 and 1.1020. We advised buying with sl at 1.0850, moving to 1.0925 now. Monthly support is found at 1.0730. In case the pair lost the 1.0850 again. Selling accelerates. The Federal Reserve and the ECB's monetary policies differ, favoring the longer-term bearish outlook.

The pair faced resistance at the descending upper trendline in the four-hour chart. In case bulls take out 1.1225, they are likely to reach 1.1300 in the near term. Traders can use a dip to buy at sl 1.0920.

We recommend intraday selling only below 1.0920 with targets at 1.0870 and 1.0850. Selling accelerates only below 1.0850.

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 29, 2015

Traders eye the FOMC meeting, which is due today. The metal has been consolidating in a tight range between $1,085.00 and $1,110.00.

HSBC: Federal Reserve coming closer to the interest rate hike, a stronger dollar, low inflation, China's and India's weak demand for physical gold and other factors weigh on gold prices.

Technical view: The yellow metal was trading at $1,095.00 during today's Asian session compared to Tuesday's closing price of $1,094.80. A weekly trading pattern is framed between $1,085.00 and $1,119.00 on a closing basis. A close on either side will result in more room to trade. In the weekly chart, the metal managed to hold the channel support trendline at $1,085.00 on a closing basis. The metal has been reaching lower highs and lower lows breaking below the large bearish head & shoulder pattern.

The weekly support is found at $1,085.00, $1,077.00and $1,073.00. A weekly close below $1,085.00 opens gates to $1,068.00, $1,045.00, and $1,005.00. In the monthly chart, strong support zone is seen between $1,045.00 and $1,032.00. The metal fell below the 14-year ascending trendline in the monthly chart. It has been managed to close above $1,085.00 on a daily closing basis for six consecutive days.

Intraday: Intraday support is found at $1,093.00, $1091.00 and $1,087.00. Resistance is seen at $1,098.50, $1,105.00, and $1,107.00. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, we expect impulsive moves. A daily close below $1,085.00 opens gates to $1,077.00 initially, later it is likely to extend towards $1,055.00.

Earlier, in the H1 chart, the metal made a double top at $1,105.00 during yesterday's session another top at $1,098.60. The metal has been testing its fate at the level of $1,085.00.

Intraday selling is available below $1,091.00 with an initial target at $1,088.00. Selling will accelerate below $1,085.00 towards $1,082.00, $1,080.00, and $1,077.00. Panic is likely to be triggered below $1,077.00. Use a rise to sell during the week. Buying is available above $1,098.00 with target at $1,100.00, $1,102.00, and $1,104.00. A strong pullback is likely above $1,106.00 towards $1,109.00 during a day.

GOLDH1.png

To contact the author of this analysis, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 29 - 2015

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Technical summary:

The flat correction in wave 2 continues to unfold just as expected. We are currently looking for one final decline to just below 1.6325 to terminate wave 2 and set the stage for wave 3 higher. A break above minor resistance at 1.6602 will be the first indication that wave 2 is over and wave higher is developing.

Even if support at 1.6325 gets substantially broken, the downside potential should be limited to 1.6115.

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 1.6335 or upon a break above 1.6602 with our stop placed at 1.6300.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 29 - 2015

2015-07-29-EURJPY-4H.png

Technical summary

We are still looking for a break above resistance at 137.80 that will confirm continuation higher to 141.06 and 144.03 as the next upside targets. There is still risk of a break below minor support at 135.49 and more importantly a break below the support-line at 134.83. That will question the bullish outlook, but only a break below support at 134.28 will invalidate the bullish outlook all together and call for a new decline to 126.05 and below.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 134.07 with stop placed at 135.40. If you are not long EUR yet, the buy a break above 137.80 and use the same stop at 135.40.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 29, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic news on the GfK German Consumer Climate is due. The US will publish data on the Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, Crude Oil Inventories, and Pending Home Sales m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1117.

Strong Resistance:1.1111.

Original Resistance: 1.1100.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1089.

Target Inner Area: 1.1063.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1037.

Original Support: 1.1026.

Strong Support: 1.1015.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1009.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 29, 2015

!_USDJPY.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release Retail Sales y/y, and the US will publish economic data on the Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, Crude Oil Inventories, and Pending Home Sales m/m. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low tomedium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 124.10.

Resistance. 2: 123.86.

Resistance. 1: 123.62.

Support. 1: 123.31.

Support. 2: 123.07.

Support. 3: 122.83.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for July 29, 2015

On the daily chart, the support level of 96.57 remains untouched, as the Index is still trading above that important zone, but be cautious with the current downside corrective moves held in this time frame. That is why we should be aware of a possible breakout around that support level, in order to reach a new low towards the level of 95.63.

USDXDaily.png

The USDX did some bullish corrective moves during Tuesday's session and it's currently being rejected by the resistance zone of 96.73. A fall towards support level of 96.33 will put to the USDX in the bear's focus, because a breakout could happen there in order to reach new lows (the level of 95.67). The MACD indicator is still in the negative territory.

USDXH1.png

Daily chart's resistance levels: 97.57 / 98.29

Daily chart's support levels: 96.57 / 95.63

H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.73 / 97.12

H1 chart's support levels: 96.33 / 95.67

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 96.33, take profit is at 95.67, and stop loss is at 97.00.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 29, 2015

GBP/USD is still riding the current bullish momentum held above the 200 SMA on the daily chart. , it is possible that the resistance zone of 1.5640 could be broken in coming days. If that happens, GBP/USD will test a high around the level of 1.5777 again. Very strong resistance is located in this time frame.

GBPUSDDaily.png

The short-term picture is still calling for more upside moves, as the pair is approaching to the resistance zone of 1.5633. We should expect a breakout over there in order to extend the rally towards the resistance level of 1.5664. Anyway, if a pullback happens at this stage, GBP/USD could correct the currrent upside move until the 200 SMA on the H1 chart.

GBPUSDH1.png

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5640 / 1.5777

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5450

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5633 / 1.5664

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5594 / 1.5568

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5633, take profit is at 1.5664, and stop loss is at 1.5602.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 28, 2015

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Overview:

When bulls pushed the price further above 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in a formation of successive lower highs (within the depicted consolidation zone) enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened a way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend).

Bullish support was found around these levels. Successive higher lows were established. Bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels of 1.2450 and 1.2500 (previous tops).

On the other hand, the previous weekly candlestick came FRANK bullish. That is why, an extensive bullish movement is seen on the chart.

A bullish breakout above the price zone of 1.2770-1.2800 has been executed.

The long-term bullish projection target would be located at the level of 1.3080 if enough bullish support is maintained.

Today, the signs of lack of bullish momentum are manifested on the chart. A bearish corrective movement is likely to be executed towards the price levels of 1.2900 and 1.2850.

Trade Recommendations:

Traders can wait for a bearish pullback towards the recent breakout zone (1.2800-1.2750) for a valid BUY entry (Breakout level = Recent Support).

Stop Loss should be located below the price level of 1.2700.

T/P levels should be located at 1.2850 and 1.2900.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 28, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously hit back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997). Bullish recovery was expressed shortly after.

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May and June) reflected recent bearish rejection being expressed around 1.1450.

In the long term, a projection target is still located at 0.9450 if a bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 occurs soon.

A bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 could be possible only if May's monthly high at 1.1465 gets breached (considered a very low probability currently).

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After such a long bearish rally, which started around the levels of 1.1300, bullish rejection took place at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0470, 1.0550, and 1.0850. These levels corresponded to the daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Further bullish pressure was observed until bearish rejection was applied around 1.1400 (long-term double-top reversal pattern).

A daily closure below the level of 1.1150 brought the EUR/USD pair to 1.1000 again where the uptrend met the EUR/USD pair.

As anticipated, a bearish daily closure below 1.0950 enabled a quick bearish decline towards 1.0850 and 1.0750.

Evident bullish recovery was expressed last week after hitting the level of 1.0800. Bulls have been trying to bring a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1000.

Yesterday, the level of 1.1100, where the backside of the broken uptrend is located, was being approached. The price level of 1.1000 has already been breached earlier this week.

Trader Recommendations :

Conservative traders can wait for a bullish pullback towards the recently established supply zone of 1.1100-1.1150. it can offer a valid sell entry. S/L should be located above 1.1200.

T/P levels should be located at 1.0850 and 1.0700.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for July 28, 2015

gbpusdweekly.png

Last month, the market was pushed above this weekly key-zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900, which provided evident supply for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, a bearish pullback was executed towards the level of 1.5550. A bearish breakout below 1.5500 took place two weeks ago.

Contradictory signals are coming from consecutive weekly candlesticks. It indicates a lack of bearish momentum below 1.5500.

The current weekly candlestick closure above 1.5500 hinders further bearish decline and enhances the bullish side of the market at least towards 1.5770 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

Last week, strong bearish pressure has been applied against the price level of 1.5550. It was breached temporarily until bullish recovery emerged this week.

On the other hand, the nearest demand level around 1.5200 will become exposed if GBP/USD bears manage to keep their WEEKLY closure below the level of 1.5500.

gbpusddaily.png

Previously, the price zone of 1.5800-1.5880 acted as a significant supply zone. It offered a valid sell entry few weeks ago. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On the other hand, the level at 1.5550 (corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level and a previous prominent top) was broken temporarily allowing further bearish decline towards 1.5350 where an ascending bottom had been recently established.

Last week, strong bullish price actions have been expressed. A bullish pullback towards 1.5600 has been taking place. The level of 1.5550 was breached during last week's consolidations.

However, Thursday's candlestick came as a bearish engulfing one which still enhances the bearish side of the market.

That is why, the price level of 1.5550 now constitutes a significant key level to be watched for significant bearish price action.

A quick bearish decline towards 1.5470 and 1.5370 should be expected if 1.5550 gets broken again.

On the other hand, the price level of 1.5770 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is the next supply level to be watched if bullish fixation above 1.5550 persists on a daily basis.

If so, a counter-trend Intraday SELL entry can be offered at retesting of the price level of 1.5770.

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