Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 20/11/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The Italian brand Lamborghini luxury sports cars will use Salesforce Blockchain to authenticate classic Lamborghini cars. Salesforce, one of the largest global customer relationship management companies, announced that Lamborghini can now track, certify and authenticate historic cars faster and more securely using the Blockchain platform.

Launched in May 2019, the Hyperchanger based Blockchain Salesforce platform will now be implemented to create a trusted network between multiple participants to check certification during the resale of Lamborghini.

Typically, when Lamborgini is resold, the vehicle undergoes 800 or 1000 certification checks that take place at the Lamborghini headquarters in Sant'Agata Bolognese, Italy, according to press releases.

The process requires Lamborghini to work with a huge network of resources, such as photographers, auction houses, dealerships, workshops and media sources - to record the full history and verify all parts and service history of each vehicle.

The companies emphasize that every Lamborghini vehicle will now be delivered with consistent service history, including important details, such as previous owners and renewals. The new system also aims to protect Lamborghini cars against potential counterfeiting, because all authentication controls are managed by Lamborghini and its partner network.

Technical Market Overview:

The bears at ETH/UDS pair have managed to push the price lower towards the key short-term technical support located at the level of $172.91 and made a new local low just below it, at the level of $171.55. If this level is clearly violated, then the sell-off might start and extend the move towards the level of $169.68, which is a 61% Fibonacci retracement of the whole up move.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $203.37

WR2 - $196.19

WR1 - $190.39

Weekly Pivot - $183.21

WS1 - $177.25

WS2 - $170.00

WS3 - $164.35

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 20/11/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reviewing its decision to reject the Bitcoin ETF fund application from Bitwise Asset Management and NYSE Arca.

In a November 18 announcement, the commission said that the ETF application from Bitwise Asset Management and NYSE Arca would return to review after being rejected for failing to meet the necessary requirements.

In October, US regulatory authorities stated that applicants had not met the necessary requirements for possible market manipulation and illegal activity.

"The Commission rejects the proposed amendment to the rules because, as discussed below, NYSE Arca has not fulfilled its obligations under the Exchange Act and the Commission's Practice Principles to demonstrate that its application complies with the requirements of section 6 (b) of the Exchange Act in particular with the requirement that the provisions on the national stock exchange should be designed to prevent dishonest and manipulative activities and practices, "wrote the SEC at the time.

One of the regulator's main concerns when assessing new commodity-based ETFs is whether the underlying market is tamper-proof. In the order, which rejected the Bitwise request, the SEC commissioners wrote that the evidence did not sufficiently support the claim that the "real" spot market for Bitcoin, after removing "false and/or uneconomical data", is sufficiently tamper-proof.

However, today the regulator announced that it is reviewing the application, so once again any party or person can submit a statement in support of or in opposition to action taken in accordance with the transferred authority, no later than December 18, 2019.

The SEC also notes that the decision to reject the proposed listing of the ETF Bitwise Asset Management and NYSE Arca will remain in force until the Commission is reviewed.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $7,934. The bears are in full control of the market and the level of $8,298 will now act as technical resistance. The down move is still continued then and so far there are no signs of any kind of a reversal. The next target for bears is $7,934 and $7,701.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,580

WR2 - $9,281

WR1 - $8,860

Weekly Pivot - $8,570

WS1 - $8,114

WS2 - $7,825

WS3 - $7,365

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Mighty DAX LT_comeback or late to the party?

The mighty DAX has been for a long time the best performer not only in Europe but globally. Back in 2013, it already regained the valuations previous to the Big Crisis (> 8,000 level), being the strongest among the European Indices. Actually it has been the only, as netiher the CAC nor the IBEX or FTSEmib have achieved this target yet.

The German one has been the only EU index following the successful path of its American peers. However, in early 2018, close to 13.500 level, something changed.

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Without taking a clear stance over what will be next (even if probably you are about to undersatnd I'm not a raging bull at these valuations), it must be said that actual levels are very interesting for entering a trade, even in the mid-long term, with some great risk-rewards ratio.

Stay safe,

The Med Trader

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 20/11/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD rally did not last long and the pair reversed after hitting the level of 1.2988. The next technical resistances located at the levels of 1.2988 and 1.3012 were never tested and Cable is back to the narrow trading range again. The immediate support is seen at the level of 1.2897, but the key technical support is located at the level of 1.2786 - 1.2765. The momentum is now neutral, but due to the market coming off the overbought conditions, the momentum might get negative soon.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3108

WR2 - 1.3004

WR1 - 1.2968

Weekly Pivot - 1.2874

WS1 - 1.2826

WS2 - 1.2727

WS3 - 1.2680

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.3012 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.1957 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 20/11/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has been consolidating around the level of 1.1084 as the market conditions have now become overbought. The momentum is still positive but is not that strong anymore. nevertheless, the bulls are still in control of the price and are looking for another resistance to be tested. If the level of 1.1084 is violated, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1109. The larget timeframe trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1148

WR2 - 1.1102

WR1 - 1.1085

Weekly Pivot - 1.1036

WS1 - 1.1017

WS2 - 1.0968

WS3 - 1.0949

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0999 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for November 20, 2019

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Technical Outlook:

EUR/USD is consolidating since yesterday after printing highs at 1.1090. The structure remains unchanged for now with the single currency pair seen to be trading around 1.1070 levels. Please expect one more high above 1.1090 before any meaningful retracement is produced. Besides, note that EUR/USD might have already formed a meaningful low at 1.0991 last week and the pair is now expected to stay above that. The 1.0990/95 zone was well supported by the previous resistance which turned into support and also fibonacci convergences as highlighted here. At the moment, the recent boundary that is worked upon is between 1.0991 and 1.1090 levels. Any pullback or retracement should be well capped above 1.0991 levels and a bullish turn is expected from around 1.1029 levels, which is fibonacci 0.618 of the rally. This drop should be seen as an opportunity to initiate fresh long positions against 1.0991 levels. Going forward, the upside potential remains through 1.1500 levels at least.

Trading plan:

Remain long against 1.0879 or 1.0991 with targets above 1.1500

Good luck!

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Long-term VIX and EUR/USD Implied Volatility

It's a strange time for starting a trading related to posting activity: VOLATILITY – the measure of deviations from the mean expected value - is incredibly low across asset classes. Indeed, volatility is the bread for every traders, opposite to what investors are looking for.

As you know, VIX - also known as the "fear index"- is a measure (derived from premium on SP500 options) of implied volatility for next 30 days.

While I'm writing, VIX is printing a 12.45 value, close to the MIN of last 2 years: if we exclude 2017 – where it got to touch values close to 10, the 12.50 reading is the lower bound of valuations at least since 2013. What's important to take under consideration is that from these levels, VIX has always spiked, sometimes exploded, thus pushing stock sdown.

analytics5dd411e3f3f16.jpgJapanese yen

3,64% 4,18% 5,19% 6,24%

While I'm feeling like the situation in stock markets and indices volatility could change soon, can't see any reason for this to happen in major currency pairs: we will still need to focus on few pips per trade.

Stay Safe,

The Med Trader

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 20, 2019

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The correction in blue wave ii need more time to unfold and has become deeper than expected, but non-the-less it just remains a correction and it should just be a matter of time before blue wave iii takes hold for the next impulsive rally towards at least 143.30 as red wave v moves closer to its ideal target at 144.58.

Short-term a break above minor resistance at 140.37 will be the first good indication that blue wave ii has completed and blue wave iii is developing, while a break above resistance at 140.94 confirms blue wave iii is well under way.

R3: 141.58

R2: 140.94

R1: 140.54

Pivot: 140.37

S1: 140.08

S2: 139.84

S3: 139.34

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 140.12 with our stop placed at 139.30. If you are not long GBP yet, then buy upon a break above 140.37 and use the same stop at 139.30

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 20, 2019

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The correction in blue wave ii needed more time to unfold and we have seen a second dip to just below the ideal target at 120.05 (the low has been seen at 119.96). This should be enough to set the stage for the next impulsive rally towards 122.35 and 123.58 as the next upside targets.

A break above minor resistance at 120.29 will be the first good indication that blue wave ii has completed and blue wave iii towards 122.35 is developing. A break above resistance at 120.48 will confirm blue wave iii is in progress.

R3: 121.13

R2: 120.85

R3: 120.48

Pivot: 120.29

S1: 120.09

S2: 119.96

S3: 119.76

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 with our stop placed at 119.30. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 120.05 or upon a break above 120.29 and use the same stop at 119.30

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The euro and pound are trading in the range in anticipation of new benchmarks - minutes of FOMC and speeches by Christine

On Tuesday, US stock indices made an attempt to update historical highs. The growth was due to both higher-than-expected corporate reporting results and exceeding the results of the 3rd quarter relative to forecasts, as well as a noticeable infusion of liquidity into the US financial systems. Along with $ 60 billion from the Fed, the Treasury adds, which plans to add 90 billion to the banking system by December 12.

As soon as the planned measures to support liquidity are implemented, US stock indexes will be ready for a reversal, and the pendulum will swing in favor of bonds and other protective instruments. Thus, these expectations will be realized as the date approaches December 12, when liquidity provision measures are completed.

At the same time, there is no reason to consider the current stage of short-term optimism as the beginning of a way out of the economic downward turn. The situation on the labor markets of the G10 countries synchronously begins to deteriorate, while data on open vacancies NFIP warn of a high probability of a reversal.

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Fears are growing that, following the slowdown in production in the 1st quarter of 2020, the slowdown phase will come to the services sector.

On the other hand, the current increase in demand for risky assets is most likely the last opportunity to sell them at a good price. A confident reversal in favor of bonds, gold and protective currencies should be expected in the coming weeks.

EUR/USD

Despite a sharp decline in business activity in 2019, GDP is still in positive territory, and if the bottom of the recession is reached, then the threat of a recession in the eurozone becomes minimal. The only question is whether the bottom has really been reached, or are we just seeing a pullback against the backdrop of the plans announced by most central banks to stimulate the economy.

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On Wednesday morning, the euro is stable after a three-day growth, and thus, speculation on the reduction of deposit rates is gradually disappearing. In the markets, it is increasingly believed that the ECB is close to the threshold of monetary stimulation. Similar estimates were simultaneously expressed, for example, by DanskeBank, Scotiabank, and Nordea Bank is taking a more cautious position and suggests that by March 2020, another softening package will be needed, such as doubling QE procurement and lowering the base rate by 10p.

On Friday, Christine Lagarde will speak before the publication of the PMI for November in Frankfurt, perhaps she will give some guidance on her next actions. While the euro is moving in a wide range, the medium-term trend is downward trend with the support of 1.0980 / 90 and the target of 1.0949, with the intermediate target of 1.1028. If the euro manages to stay above 1.1070, then a test of the boundary of the channel 1.1090 / 1.1100 is possible with a subsequent increase to 1.1178.

GBP/USD

The production in the UK, according to CBI, continues to fall. The November -26p index is slightly better than the 9.5-year low of -37p a month earlier, but continues to be well below the long-term average.

Moreover, NIESR has a pessimistic view of the future of the UK economy. According to the institute, the conclusion of an agreement with the EU will lead to a reduction in production by 3-4%, if compared to those as if Britain remains in the EU. Irrecoverable losses will amount to 70 billion pounds, and NIESR does not share the opinion that Britain will be able to take advantage of free trade opportunities with other countries when it frees itself from the restrictions associated with EU membership.

It seems quite suspicious that the Johnson government categorically evades any assessment of the agreement. Officially, the motives for such strange behavior are the reluctance to influence voters on the eve of the election, but rather, the situation looks different - the government also understands that the UK economy will lose more than it gains and therefore remains silent.

As a result, the pound grew earlier this week on political news - the Brexit party announced that it was clearing the way for parliament for the Tories, while Polls show that the Conservative Party has strengthened its leadership. At the same time, the resistance zone 1.2975 / 3000 has survived and the consolidation range of 1.28 / 1.30 is confirmed. An attempt to break through is more likely, but the momentum is not confirmed by the economy. Therefore, if the pound does not receive a new portion of political support, it will drop to 1.29 and continue further to 1.2840 / 50 in the next day.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 20. Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn's TV debates pushed down the British

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The British pound continued to lose ground late Tuesday after a televised debate between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn. The prime minister tried to turn the conversation into Brexit's concerns, while his opponent accused the Conservative Party of willingness to sell the economy to the United States. All this led to a decline in the pound, and the focus of buyers is now on the support level of 1.2900. Only the formation of a false breakout there will be a signal to buy the pound, with the main task of updating the resistance of 1.2934. However, only a breakthrough of this range will allow us to talk about the return of buyers to the market and the continuation of the upward trend to the area of highs 1.2966 and 1.3017, where I recommend profit taking. Given that the release of important fundamental statistics is not planned for the UK economy today, we can expect a further decline in GBP/USD. In this scenario, it is best to consider new long positions after updating a low of 1.2869 or even lower, in the support area of 1.2836.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Sellers will try to break below the support of 1.2900 in the morning, since consolidating below this level will strengthen the bearish trend and lead to the renewal of the 1.2869 area, where I recommend profit taking. A further target for short positions will be a low of 1.2836, a test of which will mean the end of an upward trend. However, keeping the pair below the resistance of 1.2934 continues to be a more important task for the pound sellers, to which a correction is possible today in the morning. The formation of a false breakout at this level will be an additional signal to open short positions in GBP/USD. However, in the absence of activity on the part of the bears in this range, it is best to postpone selling until the larger resistance of 1.2966 is updated.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the possible formation of a downward correction in the pair.

Bollinger bands

The upward movement will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.2945, from where it is possible to open short positions after the formation of a false breakout. A break of the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.2900 will increase pressure on the pound.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 20. The markets froze in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's minutes

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The absence of important fundamental statistics, as well as the actual news yesterday afternoon did not allow the bulls to get out of the resistance level of 1.1082, near which the main trade continues. Oddly enough, but at the moment, buyers of the euro still need the same breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1082. Only this will maintain an upward trend and lead to an update of the highs in the areas of 1.1109 and 1.1131, where I recommend profit taking. Given that only good data on German producer prices can help in this, the focus in the first half of the day will be placed on them. The Eurozone Financial Stability Report is unlikely to put pressure on the European currency, however, in the EUR/USD decline scenario, purchases can be observed only after a false breakout is formed in the support area of 1.1056, but you can buy immediately for a rebound from a low of 1.1028, a little above which is the lower boundary of the current rising channel.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers once again achieved the formation of a false breakout level of 1.1082, which I paid attention to all day yesterday. As long as trade is below this range, we can expect a further decline in the euro, especially if data on producer prices disappoint traders and economists. The main goal of sellers will be to return and consolidate below the support of 1.1056, which will push the pair further to the lows of 1.1028 and 1.0994, where I recommend profit taking. However, it will be possible to talk about the formation of a new downward trend only under the condition of a breakout of support at 1.1028, where the lower boundary of the current upward correction passes. If demand for the euro returns today in the morning, it is best to return to short positions to rebound from a new high of 1.1109, or sell the euro even higher - from the level of 1.1155.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Volatility has sharply dropped, which does not provide signals for entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, November 20, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German 30-y Bond Auction and German PPI m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Crude Oil Inventories, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1132. Strong Resistance: 1.1126. Original Resistance: 1.1115. Inner Sell Area: 1.1104. Target Inner Area: 1.1078. Inner Buy Area: 1.1052. Original Support: 1.1041. Strong Support: 1.1030. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1024.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, November 20, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Trade Balance and the US will publish some economic data such as Crude Oil Inventories. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 109.04. Resistance. 2: 108.84. Resistance. 1: 108.63. Support. 1: 108.33. Support. 2: 108.12. Support. 3: 107.92. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 20, 2019

EUR/USD

The euro spent on the Fibonacci line 123.6% between the balance line and the price channel line on the daily scale chart for all of yesterday. During this time, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator leaned even more down, indicating the most likely price path. If there are no fundamental surprises, we are waiting for the euro on the MACD line in the price area of 1.1012. Price consolidation above the peak on November 18 (1.1090) will mean automatic consolidation also above the price channel line, and this can lead to an increase to the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.1155.

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On the four-hour chart, the price currently tends to go below the Fibonacci level of 123.6% (1.1073). Success, that is, consolidating below the level, will lead to a further fall in price to support the MACD line, and the MACD lines on both charts coincide at a price of 1.1012 (after all, on H4 the line will decrease slightly when the price decreases). The coincidence of lines of two scales at one point strengthens the level. Correctional growth is likely from it. Conversely, leaving the price below the level will strengthen a further decline. The Marlin oscillator signal line is still developing in the growth zone, this is a signal of caution.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on November 20, 2019

GBP/USD

The pound did not reach the peak on October 21 (1.3012) and at the same time began to form a triple peak on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator penetrated into the negative trend zone In this basic scenario, the first target will be a Fibonacci level of 23.6% at a price of 1.2767 (which is also at the November 8 low). The second target will be a high of October 11 at a price of 1.2703 - the MACD line is aiming for it.

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On a four-hour chart, we consider intermediate goals: 1.2872 (50.0% Fibonacci), 1.2847 (28.2%), 1.2817 (23.6%). The MACD line tends to the level of 1.2817, and it becomes more significant before the price moves to 1.2767 and further to 1.2703. The Marlin oscillator on H4 entered the decreasing trend zone.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on November 20, 2019

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar has been actively trading over the past two days in the range between the MACD line and the price resistance level of 0.6832 - the low of June 18. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator began to turn down, being in the negative zone, the price continues s to overcome the support of the MACD line (0.6797) to strengthen the downward movement. The aim of the fall is still the embedded channel line in the region of 0.6745.

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On the H4 chart, the price worked out a correction of 38.2%, making a false and insignificant exit over the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is still in the growth zone, but after the price drops below the level of 0.6797, the signal line of the oscillator will go to the territory of the bears.

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#USDX vs AUD / USD vs NZD / USD vs USD / CAD - H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options for November 20, 2019 APLs

Minuette operational scale (H4)

Commodity currencies - Here's a comprehensive analysis of the options for the development of the movement #USDX vs AUD / USD vs NZD / USD vs USD / CAD for November 20, 2019 on the Minuette operational scale forks (H4 time frame)

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US dollar Index

The dollar index continues to remain in the 1/2 Median Line channel (97.65 - 97.92 - 98.15) of the Minuette operational scale forks, respectively, the further development of the #USDX movement from November 20, 2019 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the above levels. The details of the development are shown on animated chart.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (support level of 97.65) of the Minuette operational scale forks - continuation of the downward movement #USDX to the equilibrium zone (97.40 - 97.15 - 96.92) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the contrary, in case of breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (resistance level of 98.15), the movement of the dollar index can be continued towards the goals: control line UTL (98.27) of the Minuette operational scale forks

- local maximum 98.45 - lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (98.50) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks - 1/2 Median Line Minuette (98.87).

The markup of #USDX movement options from November 20, 2019 is shown on the animated chart.

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Australian dollar vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the Australian dollar AUD / USD from November 20, 2019 will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6812 - 0.6825 - 0.6842) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details of the development of the boundaries of this channel are presented on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 0.6842 at the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel is the continuation of the movement of the Australian dollar to the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6855) of the Minuette operational scale forks and the equilibrium zone (0.6865 - 0.6890 - 0.6915) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

However, in the event of a breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (support level of 0.6812) on the Minuette operational scale, it will be possible to continue the downward movement of AUD / USD to the targets: the initial SSL Minuette line (0.6785) - local minimum 0.6770 - LTL Minuette control line (0.6760) - upper boundary ISL38.2 (0.6745) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

From November 20, 2019, we look at the layout of the AUD / USD movement options on the animated chart.

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New Zealand dollar vs US dollar

From November 20, 2019, the development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar NZD / USD will be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 0.6415 on the control line UTLof the Minuette operational scale forks;
  • support level of 0.6395 at the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The breakdown of the UTL control line (resistance level of 0.6415) of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine the continuation of the development of the upward movement of NZD / USD to the equilibrium zone (0.6450 - 0.6475 - 0.6500) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

In contrast, the breakdown of support level of 0.6395 will cause the movement of the New Zealand dollar to continue in the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6395 - 0.6380 - 0.6360) of the Minuette operational scale forks, and if the breakdown of the lower boundary (0.6360) of this channel takes place, then the downward movement of this currency instrument can continue goals: local minimums (0.6330 - 0.6318) - control line LTL Minuette (0.6300) - 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6275 - 0.6230 - 0.6185) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

From November 20, 2019, we look at the layout of the NZD / USD movement options on the animated chart.

analytics5dd3f84341127.jpg

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US dollar vs Canadian dollar

Similarly, the development of the movement of the Canadian dollar USD / CAD from November 20, 2019 will also be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.3210 at the lower boundary of ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks;
  • support level of 1.3200 at the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (support level of 1.3200) will make the development of the Canadian dollar to continue in the equilibrium zone (1.3200 - 1.3180 - 1.3160) of the Minuette operational scale forks followed by the continuation thereof in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.3160 - 1.3130 - 1.3100) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the contrary, the breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (resistance level of 1.3210) - the development of the USD / CAD movement in the equilibrium zone (1.3210 - 1.3252 - 1.3295) of the Minuette operational scale forks, taking into account the development of the SSL initial line (1.3262) of the Minuette operational scale forks and the local maximum 1.3270.

From November 20, 2019, we look at the markup of the USD / CAD movement options on the animated chart.

analytics5dd3f895d73a4.jpg

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders " sell " or " buy ")

The formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound Sterling - 11.9%;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on November 20

Forecast for November 20:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1149, 1.1125, 1.1108, 1.1081, 1.1060, 1.1038, 1.1022 and 1.1004. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of November 14. We expect short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation, in the range of 1.1060 - 1.1081. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.1108. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1108 - 1.1125. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1149. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1038 - 1.1022. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1004. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will allow us to count on movement to the first potential target - 1.0986.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1083 Take profit: 1.1106

Buy: 1.1025 Take profit: 1.1146

Sell: 1.1038 Take profit: 1.1022

Sell: 1.1021 Take profit: 1.1005

analytics5dd4945bcdb77.png

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3113, 1.3079, 1.3032, 1.2966, 1.2927, 1.2899, 1.2860 and 1.2817. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the upward cycle of November 8. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2966. In this case, the target is 1.3032. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.3032 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3079. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3113. Upon reaching this value, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2927 - 1.2899. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2860. This level is a key support for the upward structure from November 8. Its passage in price will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the first goal is 1.2817.

The main trend is the upward cycle of November 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2967 Take profit: 1.3030

Buy: 1.3034 Take profit: 1.3079

Sell: 1.2927 Take profit: 1.2900

Sell: 1.2896 Take profit: 1.2860

analytics5dd48bb63b970.png

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9930, 0.9913, 0.9900, 0.9881, 0.9863, 0.9853 and 0.9831. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 8. At the moment, the price is in correction and has developed the potential for the upward movement of November 18. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9881. In this case, the target is 0.9863. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9863 - 0.9853. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9831. The expressed movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9851.

Consolidated movement is possibly in the range of 0.9900 - 0.9913. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9930. This level is the key support for the downward structure. We expect the finalization of the initial conditions for the upward cycle to this level.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 8, the potential for the top of November 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9900 Take profit: 0.9911

Buy : 0.9914 Take profit: 0.9930

Sell: 0.9880 Take profit: 0.9865

Sell: 0.9852 Take profit: 0.9831

analytics5dd48bd238c2e.png

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.09, 108.91, 108.73, 108.44, 108.27, 108.06 and 107.92. Here, we are following the development of the local descending structure of November 18. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 108.44 - 108.27. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 108.06. We consider the level of 107.92 to be a potential value for the bottom. Upon reaching this value, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to correction in the range of 108.06 - 107.92.

Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation, are expected in the range of 108.73 - 108.91. We consider the level 109.09 to be the potential value for the top. We expect the initial conditions for the ascending cycle to be formed until this level.

The main trend: the downward structure of November 7, the local structure of November 18

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.73 Take profit: 108.90

Buy : 108.94 Take profit: 109.07

Sell: 108.44 Take profit: 108.29

Sell: 108.25 Take profit: 108.06

analytics5dd48bed81828.png

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3355, 1.3334, 1.3302, 1.3278, 1.3250, 1.3234, 1.3208 and 1.3188. Here, the price forms a pronounced potential for the upward movement of November 19. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3278. In this case, the target is 1.3302. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.3303 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3334. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3355. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3250 - 1.3234. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3210. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of November 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3278 Take profit: 1.3300

Buy : 1.3305 Take profit: 1.3334

Sell: 1.3250 Take profit: 1.3235

Sell: 1.3232 Take profit: 1.3210

analytics5dd48c40b9ff5.png

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6892, 0.6872, 0.6859, 0.6839, 0.6815, 0.6801 and 0.6783. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of November 14. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6840. In this case, the target is 0.6859. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6859 - 0.6872. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6892. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.6815 - 0.6801. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6783. This level is the key support for the ascending structure of November 14.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6840 Take profit: 0.6857

Buy: 0.6860 Take profit: 0.6870

Sell : 0.6815 Take profit : 0.6803

Sell: 0.6800 Take profit: 0.6785

analytics5dd48caea1953.png

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.40, 121.12, 120.70, 120.35, 120.03, 119.83, 119.51 and 119.25. Here, we are following the ascending structure of November 14. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 120.35. Here, the goal is 120.70. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 120.70 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 121.12. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 121.40. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 120.03 - 119.83. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 119.51. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 120.35 Take profit: 120.68

Buy: 120.72 Take profit: 121.10

Sell: 120.03 Take profit: 119.83

Sell: 119.80 Take profit: 119.51

analytics5dd48ccde0f76.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 142.14, 141.93, 141.57, 141.02, 140.49, 140.18 and 139.79. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of November 14. At the moment, the price is in deep correction. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 141.02. In this case, the first goal is 141.57. The breakdown of which will allow us to count on movement to the level of 142.14. Upon reaching this value, we expect consolidation in the range of 141.93 - 142.14.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 140.18 - 139.79. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the cancellation of the ascending structure of November 14. In this case, the first target is 139.36.

The main trend is the rising structure of November 14, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 141.02 Take profit: 141.55

Buy: 141.58 Take profit: 141.93

Sell: 140.16 Take profit: 139.84

Sell: 139.76 Take profit: 139.38

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Australian dollar: attempt at growth failed

The Australian currency is dominated by conflicting factors. On the one hand, it is under pressure from the uncertainty in the trade dispute between the US and China, and on the other hand, the decline in demand for the US currency supports the aussie.

On the morning of Tuesday, November 19, many analysts expected the Australian dollar to weaken. The aussie reacted negatively to the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), but ignored the impressive price growth of local producers. According to the report of the Australian regulator, at the last meeting, the bank was considering the possibility of reducing the rate, but refused this step. The RBA believes that maintaining the key rate at the same level will positively affect consumer demand.

The Australian regulator continued the dovish policy, declaring its readiness to further reduce rates. The bank does not plan to reduce the rate in December this year, but allows a decrease in February 2020. Such sentiments were facilitated by the destruction of hopes for a preliminary trade deal between the United States and China, which had a somewhat negative impact on the Australian currency.

However, in general, despite a number of contradictions, the current situation positively influenced the dynamics of the aussie. This morning, the AUD/USD pair was trading at 0.6805, but in the future it was able to win back the lost positions. The Australian currency managed to reverse the downward trend, and the AUD/USD pair went up.

On Tuesday afternoon, the pair was trading in the range 0.6831–0.6832, slightly dropping from time to time. However, the general trend is aimed at the Australian currency's growth.

analytics5dd48e32739ff.png

There were also negative aspects in the process of trading. For example, the AUD/USD pair has now dropped to 0.6825–0.6826, but is trying to gain height.

analytics5dd48e4972521.png

One of the catalysts for the aussie's growth was a decrease in demand for the US dollar. According to analysts, it was moderate demand for the greenback that helped the Australian currency avoid serious losses. However, in case of demand for the US dollar and its strengthening, the aussie is expected to decline, experts said. At the moment, the attempt to raise the Australian currency is counted, but the market will not be as supportive in the future, analysts said

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Account for EUR/USD: 1:0 in favor of the euro

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A new week began on a positive note for the European currency, which cannot be said about the US one. The greenback noticeably lost heart, although it was not going to give up. However, it is with respect to the euro that experts predict a rise.

The recovery of the euro after recent failures was slow, and this process is still ongoing. Last week, the EUR/USD pair focused near an important psychological level of 1.1000, and then there was a surge in volatility, pulling down the euro to its previous positions and giving odds to the dollar. On Monday, November 18, the EUR/USD pair was trading at around 1.1062–1.1065, stuck at this level for a while. However, on Tuesday morning, November 19, the pair's quotes moved up, reaching 1.1080–1.1081.

analytics5dd48bd437de7.png

According to some analysts, in this framework, the EUR/USD pair is held by conflicting events that form the geopolitical and economic background. Weakening of the US currency, as well as positive news regarding the prospects of Brexit play into the hands of the euro. At the same time, the Bundesbank report on German GDP for the third quarter of 2019 became a negative factor for the single currency. Weak data unsettled the euro, although it did not lead to its collapse. According to the report of the German central bank, a slowdown in the country's economy and some stagnation are possible in the fourth quarter of this year. At the same time, experts emphasized that the slowdown in the German economy will be short-lived, and the concern about the recession noted earlier does not make sense. Such a fluctuation between positive and negative put a little pressure on the euro and suspended the EUR/USD pair's growth.

Regarding the US currency, experts agree that the unconditional leader of the foreign exchange market will have to squeeze and at some point give up their positions. Analysts do not exclude that this retreat will be short-lived, as the market still believes in the power of the dollar. In case of greenback weakening, which will occur no earlier than next year, the EUR/USD pair may reach 1.1600. According to experts, the immediate goal of the pair will be the 1.1093 bar.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair seeks to conquer this peak, but the goal is still unattainable. Now the pair runs near the indicators 1.1077–1.1078, climbing higher from time to time. However, staying at the conquered heights does not work, experts say.

analytics5dd48c028374c.png

Moreover, the EUR/USD pair fell to the levels of 1.1070–1.1071 at the moment, causing concern for market participants. However, the pair has not yet been able to find the bottom.

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For a long time, the European currency was in limbo, but now the situation has stabilized. The risks associated with the "hard" Brexit were smoothed out a bit, the probability of another rate cut came close to zero, and the euro found the long-awaited calm. In this regard, the market has hopes for a further rise in the single currency. Experts are certain that the current upward trend in the euro will continue.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Guessing oil

The oil market does not know who to believe. Either the International Energy Agency, which predicts that supply growth from non-OPEC countries will accelerate from 1.8 million bpd in 2019 to 2.3 million bpd in 2020, mainly due to the United States, Brazil, Norway and Guyana. Or a cartel that lowered estimates of an increase in the indicator next year by 34 thousand bpd to 2.17 million bpd. The main reason, according to OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo, needs to be sought in the United States. There, the growth in supply in 2020 will be reduced by 33 thousand bpd to 1.5 million bpd. Much will depend on the dynamics of US production, because the question of prolonging the Vienna agreement to reduce production by the cartel and Russia at the meeting on December 5-6 was practically resolved.

According to a study by the US Energy Information Administration, US oil production will hit a record high of 13 million bpd in November and will continue to grow faster than previously expected in 2020-2021. Shale production will increase to 9.13 million bpd in December. As a result, the share of American manufacturers in the global indicator will increase, while the share of OPEC and Russia, on the contrary, will decrease from 55% in the mid-2000s to 47% in 2030. The EIA version is more similar to the opinion of the IEA than to the position of OPEC. One can only guess what goals the cartel pursues, spreading information about the slowdown in the pace of US production of black gold?

Official statistics does not provide an answer to the question "Who is right?". Oil stocks in the United States increased over eight of the last nine weeks, which indicates either excessive production, or a slowdown in demand. The first version, given the strength of the US economy, looks more believable than the second. On the other hand, the number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes is steadily decreasing, indicating a reduction in business investment and potentially leading to a slowdown in production.

The dynamics of US oil reserves

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The dynamics of Brent and the number of drilling rigs in the US

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Along with questions about the growth rate of production in OPEC + and outside the cartel, there are other uncertainties in the oil market. In particular, investors are still not sure whether Washington and Beijing will be able to sign a trade agreement. Both sides are unhappy with the unwillingness of opponents to make concessions. China wants a rollback of tariffs, Donald Trump, on the contrary, threatens to increase them in case Beijing does not sign the agreement. At the same time, the Minister of Commerce Wilbur Ross assures that it will be endorsed by the presidents of the two countries. The United States will renew the license for American companies working with Huawei, and Beijing will remove duties on deliveries from the USA to the Chinese market of meat and poultry.

Technically, the struggle for Pivot levels of $62.05-62.45 per barrel continues on the Brent daily chart. The victory of the bulls will allow them to continue the rally in the direction of the Shark and Wolfe Wave patterns. On the contrary, if the important area remains under the control of the bears, the risks will peak to $59.25 and $56.4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. November 19. Results of the day. Most Americans believe that Donald Trump deserves impeachment

4-hour timeframe

analytics5dd48082d5577.png

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 36p - 25p - 39p - 42p - 40p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 36p (low).

The EUR/USD currency pair spent the second trading day of the week in sideways movement with the same low volatility that we have recorded over the past weeks. Thus, from a technical point of view, the picture for the EUR/USD currency pair has not changed at all compared to the previous day. However, there are a couple of interesting points that we should pay attention to. First, the pair came close to the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. This line is quite strong resistance, therefore, a high probability of a rebound from it. A rebound from this line can with a high degree of probability mean the completion of a hike up and the resumption of a downward trend. We have already written more than once that, from our point of view, there are no particularly good fundamental reasons for strengthening the euro currency, and the only thing that saves the euro from a new fall against the US dollar is the bearish desire to sell the pair when it is near its two year lows. Secondly, all the same foundation, which is practically absent this week. There will be literally a couple of interesting macroeconomic publications on Friday, as well as a speech by Christine Lagarde that day. However, if the head of the ECB does not say anything shocking and unexpected, then again the traders will have nothing to react to. Thirdly, traders have already ignored information from several ECB members at once, who in one way or another, but hinted at the central bank's readiness to cut rates in the future. True, some of them announced that they should wait for the results of the stimulus package that the central bank introduced in September, so at the next meeting of the ECB, which will be the first at the helm for Christine Lagarde, it is hardly worth expecting a reduction in the key rate. Fourth, we are now dealing with weak volatility, so it doesn't even matter if bears or bulls want to enter the market and at what price levels, there are very few traders on the market now, so it does not make sense a priori to expect strong growth or decline in such conditions .

What do we have today? In the United States, the number of approved building permits increased by 5% compared with September, but the number of started construction of houses amounted to 1.324 million, although forecasts predicted the figure of 1.32 million. However, these reports are of secondary importance and have no effect on the movement of the currency pair. Meanwhile, hearings on the impeachment case of Donald Trump in the United States are ongoing, and more attention is being drawn to this event not just from the U.S. residents, but from the electorate in the 2020 presidential election. According to opinion polls, about 70% of respondents condemn Donald Trump for talking with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, in which the US leader demanded to investigate the activities of his main rival for the presidency in future elections in exchange for military assistance worth $400 million. About 50% believe that all the charges against Trump are fair and the president deserves to be removed from office. What does this mean? This means that the potential number of Trump voters in 2020 is declining. We already wrote that Trump lost part of his electorate due to the trade war with China, which he now cannot or does not want to finish in fact. Ordinary Americans are faced with an increase in prices for Chinese goods by 15-30%. Given the fact that Chinese products are famous for their cheapness, the rise in prices for these categories of goods is unlikely to please Americans. If Trump manages to end the war before November 2020, then the situation may change in his favor, but China also understands that the longer the trade war lasts, the less chance Trump has to extend his presidential term. Thus, it is possible that China is even intentionally prepared to wait out the last year of Trump's presidency in order to negotiate with a more loyal president. Of course, they will not announce the impeachment to Trump, the investigation of this case may continue for several more months, and removing the president six months before the election does not make much sense. But all these investigations continue to cast a shadow over the US leader, which can be enough to lose the election to Joe Biden. Thus, the Democrats now simply need to "toss firewood into the fire."

From a technical point of view, it is now best for traders to wait for a rebound from the Senkou Span B line or to overcome it, which will determine the vector of further movement of the euro/dollar pair. We believe that it will be very difficult for traders to go above the resistance level of 1.1101, so we recommend that you carefully handle long positions.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues the upward movement. Thus, now it is possible to consider purchases of the euro currency, but only in small lots, since the current movement is still identified as corrective. We recommend that for euro purchases wait until the level of 1.1101 is overcome. It is recommended to return to purchases of the US dollar no earlier than the reconsolidation of the euro/dollar pair below the critical Kijun-sen line with the aim of the support level of 1,1008.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com