Global macro overview for 06/10/2016

Global macro overview for 06/10/2016:

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke to BDI lobby group in Berlin today and her remarks regarding economy and Brexit were quite interesting. Merkel said the German economy is in good shape and the German industry should be applauded for being open in turbulent times. Despite the Brexit headwinds and other big challenges that lay ahead, she still sees some room for a modest tax relief. Regarding Brexit, she said the UK must first trigger Article 50 and then talks will tackle how much single-market access can be given to the UK afterward. Ignoring those rules would damage the eurozone. In conclusion, quite aggressive statements from the German Chancellor were addressed of course to British Prime Minister May, who recently acknowledged the beginning of the full Brexit process as soon as March 2017. The question remains whether all necessary talks and negotiations will be ready before this date.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture in the daily time frame. Another higher high has been made in this pair, but the growing bearish divergence might start to influence the price action soon. The overall trend is still bullish, but it is only a matter of time when the next downward correction will occur. The next support is seen at the level of 0.8723.

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Global macro overview for 06/10/2016

Global macro overview for 06/10/2016:

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change missed market expectations and printed only 154k jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, instead of anticipated 166k jobs, official data revealed on Wednesday. The ADP report is released every month two days ahead of the NFP report, which is expected to log 171k new jobs for September, following the previous month's 151k jobs. In conclusion, the ADP data disappointed slightly, but still the NFP data might be pretty high or even surprise global investors.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture ahead of NFP news release. A marginal new low was made yesterday, but so far, no response from the bear camp has been seen. The market is still trading inside of the congestion zone between the technical support at 1.1120 and technical resistance at 1.1254. We are waiting for a breakout.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 6, 2016

General overview for 06/10/2016:

The top for the wave (2) or b looks to be in place now and the first impulsive decline towards the weekly pivot has been labeled as wave i. Currently, the market is trying to develop the internal corrective cycle in wave ii. When this corrective cycle is completed, the wave (3) to the downside should start. The longer-term bias is bearish and one more wave to the downside should be expected in this pair.

Support/Resistance:

1.2910 - WS2

1.3000 - Technical Support

1.3028 - 1.3048 - Demand Zone

1.3066 - Intraday Support

1.3144 - Weekly Pivot

1.3233 - Intraday Resistance

1.3241 - WR1

1.3261 - 1.3281 - Supply Zone

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should refrain from trading until a clearer trading setup occurs.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 6, 2016

General overview for 06/10/2016:

The market is now developing an internal corrective structure in wave (iv), possibly in a shape of a triangle pattern. The intraday support at the level of 115.33 is the most important level for day traders for now. Please notice, that the overall impulsive bullish wave progression to the upside hasn't been completed yet and higher price levels are expected when the correction is completed.

Support/Resistance:

112.07 - Technical Support

112.83 - WS1

113.50 - Weekly Pivot

114.78 - WR1

115.33 - Intraday Support

115.54 - WR2

116.36 - Intraday Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should refrain from trading until a more clearer trading setup occurs.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 6, 2016

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On May 16, a bullish pullback towards 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was expected to offer a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. However, a lack of a significant bearish rejection was manifested during recent consolidations.

On May 18, temporary bullish fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opened the way towards the 1.3180 level where significant bearish pressure was originated.

Bearish persistence below 1.3000-1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is needed to enhance bearish momentum in the market.

However, On August 18, signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2830 which led to the current bullish breakout above 1.3000.

This week, daily persistence below 1.2950 (61.8% Fibonacci level) should be achieved in order to enhance the bearish side of the market. Initial bearish targets are located at 1.2670 and 1.2580.

On the other hand, note that daily fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opens the way towards the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) where price action should be watched for a better SELL entry with a lower risk/reward ratio.

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 6, 2016

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Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted support) was necessary to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

In February and March, signs of bearish rejection (triple-top reversal pattern) were expressed around the price level of 0.6750 until April when a bullish breakout above 0.6750 and 0.6860 was executed.

Later on May 6, daily candlestick closure below the 0.6850 level enhanced a quick bearish movement towards 0.6750 where bullish rejection was expected to be applied. However, obvious bearish closure below 0.6750 was achieved on May 24.

On May 30, obvious bullish rejection was expressed around the price level of 0.6675 (lower limit of the depicted channel). That is why, the recent bullish breakout is taking place above 0.6860.

As long as the NZD/USD pair kept trading above 0.6860, further bullish advance was expected towards the upper limit of the depicted channel around 0.7400.

On July 12, the price zone of 0.7350 - 0.7400 (upper limit of the depicted channel) enhanced a quick bearish decline towards the price levels of 0.6960 where the current bullish swing was initiated.

Recently, the price zone between 0.7470-0.7500 has been corresponding to the upper limit of the depicted movement channel where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expressed a month ago.

S/L should be lowered to 0.7200 to secure some profits. T/P levels should be located at 0.7160 and 0.7060.

On the other hand, the price zone between 0.6960-0.6860 constitutes a significant support zone to be watched for a valid BUY entry when the current bearish swing extends below 0.7100.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for October 6, 2016

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The price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (Historical bottoms in January 2009) was considered a significant demand zone to be watched for bullish recovery.

However, by the end of June, a significant bearish breakdown below 1.3550 was expressed as seen on the depicted charts (Fundamental Reasons).

Bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhanced the bearish scenario towards the current price levels around 1.2700 (nearest bearish projection target).

Today, price action should be watched for a short-term BUY entry. Initial bullish targets should be located at 1.2800 and 1.2900. S/L is recommended to be set as daily closure below 1.2700.

Note that the GBP/USD pair remains trapped inside the depicted consolidation range between 1.2700 and 1.3550 until breakout occurs in either direction.

On the other hand, daily persistence below 1.2700 confirms a bearish Flag pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 1.2020 if enough bearish pressure is maintained below 1.2700.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 6, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

Again In February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the current price levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May, June and August).

In the long term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

On the other hand, note that a monthly candlestick closure above 1.1400 invalidates this bearish outlook on an intermediate-term basis (low probability).

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The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish fixation below 1.1000 is needed to enhance this bearish scenario.

On July 27, the EUR/USD pushed above the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range). Hence, further bullish advance towards 1.1250 was executed.

Temporary bullish breakout was expressed above the price zone of 1.1250 (supply level 1). However, significant bearish rejection was seen on August 26.

On September 6, evident bullish recovery and a temporary bullish breakout above 1.1250 were expressed again, but evident bearish pressure was expressed on the EUR/USD pair on September 16.

Bearish closure below 1.1250 (Supply level 1) should be defended to maintain enough bearish pressure and enhance the bearish side in the market again. Initial bearish targets should be located at 1.1050 and 1.0990.

On the other hand, a daily candlestick closure above 1.1250 (Supply level 1) allows bullish advance towards 1.1400 (Supply level 2) where a better SELL entry can be offered.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 06, 2016

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 103.00. The pair remains bullish, backed by a rising trend line (since Oct 4), and is looking for a higher top. Besides, the relative strength index stands above its neutrality area at 50. In addition, a support base at 103.00 has formed, and the downside room should be limited by this level. On Wednesday, U.S. stocks rebounded. Banking shares were lifted by expectations of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates soon, and energy shares were boosted by oil prices' approach to $50 a barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 112 points (+0.6%) to 18281, the S&P 500 added 9 points (+0.4%) to 2159, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 26 points (+0.5%) at 5316.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its non-manufacturing index increased to 57.1 in September (vs. 53.0 expected) from 51.4 in August. That was enough to flip the market back into "buy" mode after the selloff in the prior session.

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said he would be "fine" with raising interest rates by year end upon firm U.S. economic data.

Hence, further advance is expected with the next horizontal resistance and overlap set at 104.00 at first, and then to 104.30.

Trading Recommendation: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 104.00 and the second one at 104.30. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.65 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 102.00. The pivot point lies at 103.00.

Resistance levels: 104.00, 104.30, 104.75

Support levels: 102.65, 102.00, 101.60

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Gold analysis for October 06, 2016

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Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,267.50. Using the market profile analysis, I found strong downward momentum and yesterday's peak area (resistance) at the price of $1,267.90 and point of control at the price of $1,271.75 on the 30M time frame. I placed simple moving average with 48 period and found successful rejection. Watch for selling opportunities. Downward target is set at the price of $1,250.79.

Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,271.70

R2: 1,274.65

R3: 1,279.50

Support levels:

S1: 1,262.00

S2: 1,259.00

S3: 1,254.25

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for selling opportunties. Take profit level is set at the price of $1,250.79.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 06, 2016

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USD/CHF is expected to extend its upside movement. The pair is holding on the downside after the failure to break above the nearest resistance at 0.9800. At the same time, both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are heading downward, and are playing resistance roles. Besides, the relative strength index is bearish below its neutrality area at 50. U.S. government bonds experienced extended selling pressure with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield charging further to 1.718% from 1.683% Tuesday. Worries over the potential tapering of bond purchases by the ECB added to jitters in the bond market. In fact, government bonds in the eurozone's periphery countries, such as Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Ireland, also saw heavy selloffs.

Hence, as long as 0.9800 holds on the upside, a new decline is likely to occur to 0.9715 at first, and then to 0.9690.

Resistance levels: 0.9830, 0.9845, 0.9945

Support levels: 0.9715, 0.9690, 0.9645

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 06, 2016

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NZD/USD is under pressure. The pair is trading below its resistance at 0.7200 (a key horizontal level), which maintains strong selling pressure. The downward momentum is further reinforced by its descending 50-period moving average. In addition, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. To sum up, as long as 0.7200 is not surpassed, the pair is likely to drop to 0.7130, if breakout, look for further downsides to 0.7100 as likely.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7130. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7100. The pivot point stands at 0.7200. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7250 and the second one at 0.7300.

Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7300, 0.7330

Support levels: 0.7130, 0.7100, 0.7055

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 06, 2016

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GBP/JPY is expected to post some further upside gains. The technical picture of the pair is bullish above a rising trend line, which confirms a positive view. The upward momentum is further reinforced by its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play a support role and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. Additionally, 131.00 is playing a key support role, which should limit the downside potential. The British pound showed signs of stabilization after chalking a 31-year low of 1.2683 against the U.S. dollar intraday. At the close, GBP/USD settled at 1.2748, up 0.2% on day. Meanwhile, a report by consultancy firm Oliver Wyman pointed out that the British financial industry could lose up to 38 billion pounds in revenue in case the U.K.'s formal separation from the European Union restricts finance firms' access to the EU single market.

As long as 131.00 holds on the downside, look for a further upside toward 132.45 and even 133.25 in extension.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 132.45 and the second one at 133.25. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 130.45 if the price moves below its pivot point. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 130.00.The pivot point lies at 131.00.

Resistance levels: 132.45, 133.25, 134.10

Support levels: 130.45, 130.00, 129.65

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EUR/NZD analysis for October 06, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways at the price of 1.5640. According to the 1H time frame, I found a tight tranding range (potential re-accumulation) between the price of 1.5600 (support) and the price of 1.5651 (resistance). Since I found strong accumulation in the background and the trend is upward, my advice is to watch for buying opportunities above the price of 1.5651. The upward target is set at the price of 1.5820.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1.5647

R2: 1.5680

R3: 1.5730

Support levels:

S1: 1.5550

S2: 1.5515

S3: 1.5465

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for buying opportunities above the price of 1.5651.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 06, 2016

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 0.7100 or lower. the NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.7238. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.7238 (38.2% Fibonacci Expansion) to the bottom around 0.7120. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7238 followed by 0.7332, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7133. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7238 and 0.7133; for that we expect a range of 105 pips. If the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the support level of 0.7133, the market will decline further to 0.7086 in order to test the double bottom. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.7133 with a view to test the first support. However, the stop loss should always be taken into account, accordingly, it will be of beneficial to set the stop loss above the last resistance at 0.7238.
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Technical analysis of NZD/CAD for October 6, 2016

NZD/CAD found the resistance near 0.9505 and rejected 50 Moving average after which continued moving lower as projected in the previous analysis. Currently, NZD/CAD is trading near 50MA which is being rejected. Pair yet to test one of the Fibs target either at 23.6% (0.9411) or 0% Fibs (0.9327)

Consider holding short positions from 0.9505 with stop loss moved to the breakeven level.

Support: 0.9464, 0.9411, 0.9327

Resistance: 0.9506, 0.9550

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Technical analysis of AUD/CAD for October 6, 2016

AUD/CAD started to move lower as projected in the previous analysis. However, the pair is poised to test the 0% Fibs (1.0000) target. This level is an important technical and psychological support level that should be watched closely. Break below it could change the direction of the trend from up to down, but first the pair is likely to consolidate.

Consider holding shorts at 1.0070, targeting 1.0000. At this point the stop loss can be moved to the breakeven level.

Support: 1.0058, 1.0035, 1.0000

Resistance: 1.0077, 1.0095

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 06, 2016

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair will continue rising from the level of 0.9733 in the long term. Importantly, the support is established at the level of 0.9733 which represents the daily pivot point on the H1 chart. Besides, it should be noted that the ratio of 50% Fibonacci retracement coincides with the levels of 0.9733. Since the trend is above the 50% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. From this point, the price is likely to form a double bottom around the spot of 0.9733 on the same time frame. Accordingly, the USD/CHF pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the maximum at 0.9750. So, buy above the level of 0.9750 with the first target at 0.9806 in order to test the daily resistance 2. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. If the trend manages to break the level of 0.9826, then the market will call for a strong bullish movement towards the objective of 0.9828 today. The level of 0.9828 is a good place to take profits because it represents the last week's top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9730, a further decline to 0.9661 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market.
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AUD/USD approaching major support, prepare to buy

The price is approaching the major support at 0.7575 (Fibonacci projection, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal support) from which we expect a bounce for a push up to 0.7645.

Stochastics (21,3,3) has bounced off 12% support triggering a bullish move.

Buy above 0.7575. Place stop loss at 0.7525 and take profit at 0.7645.

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AUD/NZD surpassed strong resistance, time to start buying

The price has broken significant resistance at 1.0570 which opens the way up to 1.0675. Our stop loss is at 1.0510 which is the last swing low.

RSI (21) has made a bullish exit signalling that a bullish move is in progress.

Buy above 1.0590. Place stop loss at 1.0510 and take profit at 1.0675.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 6, 2016

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair is volatile and directionless, having tested the support line at 1.1150 and the resistance line at 1.1250 (last week). Price needs to go above the resistance line or below the support line, to form a bearish or bullish bias. This is what is expected before the end of the week.

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USD/CHF: This pair tested the resistance level at 0.9800 and later got corrected by close to 70 pips. Price is now below the resistance level at 0.9750, with a probability of testing the support level at 0.9700. However, the bullish signal in the market would be valid as long as price does not go below the support level at 0.9650.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair has gone bearish this week, and it is currently experiencing some shallow rally in the context of a downtrend. The major bias is bearish and further downwards movement is expected, which means the current shallow rally might end up being an invitation to enter the market at better prices.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument has gone upwards by over 200 pips this week, and the supply level at 103.50 has almost been breached to the upside. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and a further northward movement is anticipated, which may make price reach the supply levels at 104.00 and 104.50. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they may have some impact on the market.

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EUR/JPY: The movement on this cross is quite similar to the movement on the USD/JPY pair. Price has rallied significantly and this seems just to be the beginning. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. Bulls may now target the supply zones at 116.50 and 117.00 soon.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 6, 2016

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Wave summary:

We will continue to look for support at 1.5533 to act as a floor for the next rally higher to 1.5969 in wave [iii]. After a new sideways consolidation in wave [iv] more upside closer to 1.6491 will be expected.

As a long-term low has been found with the test of 1.4989, we should be looking for a long-term impulsive rally towards 1.6931 and 1.9023 on the way higher to 2.0147.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5515 with stop placed at 1.5260. Upon a break above 1.5658 we will lift our stop to break-even. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.5560 or upon a break above 1.5658 and use the same stops.

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Technical analysis of USDX for October 6, 2016

The Dollar index remains in a short-term up trend trying to break above medium-term resistance and out of the multi-week trading range. The NFP numbers due to be announced tomorrow are going to influence short- and medium-term trend.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Short-term support is at 96.10 while resistance lies at 96.50. The Dollar index is trading above the short-term Ichimoku cloud and as long as the price is above 95.50, short-term trend will remain bullish. There is still no bearish divergence by the oscillators so we can still see at least one more new higher high towards 96.50 which is also weekly resistance.

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Blue line - horizontal resistance

Green line - trend line support

The Dollar index is once again testing the lower cloud resistance at 96.50 on a weekly basis. This is also horizontal resistance of the previous week's highs. The price remains below the cloud but above the important upward sloping trend line. The critical support is at 95.20 while the 96.50 remains weekly resistance.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 6, 2016

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Wave summary:

We have already seen a test of minor resistance at 116.08 and we should now expect support in the 115.00 - 115.25 area to act as a floor for the next rally higher to 117.89 to completed wave i of (iii). Longer term, the target for wave (iii) is seen at 126.59.

A break above minor resistance at 116.37 will confirm that the decline from 118.47 only has been in three waves, which is a sign for a correction and more importantly will confirm that a new impulsive rally is developing.

Trading recommendation:

We will wait to buy the wave ii correction which is expected from near 117.89.

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Technical analysis of gold for October 6, 2016

Gold price remains in a short-term bearish trend approaching the first important medium-term support levels of $1,250 where I expect to see the first important bounce. Gold price is now confirmed in a correction phase correcting the entire rise from $1,045.

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Red line - resistance trend line

Blue lines - bearish channel

Gold price is inside a downward sloping bearish channel. With short-term oscillators starting to give some bullish divergence signals, we are soon to expect a bounce most probably towards the red trend line resistance which was once support. Only above $1,330-50 we will have a medium-term trend reversal signal.

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Gold price is correcting the entire rise from $1,045 and this is most probably the first part of the decline expected to reach $1,250. A bounce towards $1,300-$1,330 will then be expected. The final and third part of the correction could push price towards $1,170. This is a rough roadmap on what we could expect.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 06, 2016

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, French 10-y Bond Auction, Retail PMI, German Factory Orders m/m. The US will also reveal some economic news such as Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, Challenger Job Cuts y/y. Therefore, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1260.

Strong Resistance:1.1254.

Original Resistance: 1.1243.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1232.

Target Inner Area: 1.1206.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1180.

Original Support: 1.1169.

Strong Support: 1.1158.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1152.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Oct 06, 2016

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In Asia, today Japan will not release any economic data. However, the US will release a series of economic reports such as Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 103.98.

Resistance. 2: 103.78.

Resistance 1: 103.57.

Support 1: 103.32.

Support 2: 103.12.

Support 3: 102.92.

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Silver Technical Analysis for October 06, 2016.

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver has broken below the consolidation structure around $18.60 levels and is still expected to continue further at least into mid $16.00 level as discussed earlier and also depicted here. The wave structure also indicates that the metal is into its wave C correction within the 3 wave A-B-C drop that began from $21.10 levels earlier. Please also note that the metal could produce intraday rallies towards $18.20/30 levels which should be considered as opportunities to sell again. The metal looks to be in its 3rd wave within 5 waves into the C wave as depicted here, hence expect lower levels towards at least $16.70. Please note that $16.68 is also the fibonacci 0.618 support of the entire rally between $13.70 and $21.10 levels respectively. It is recommended to book profits on short positions taken earlier and wait for opportunities to sell again. Immediate resistance is seen at $20.10 level, while support is at $17.00 level respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Please take profits on short positions taken earlier and remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Gold Technical Analysis for October 06, 2016.

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold counter trend rally is awaited and should materialize by tomorrow. Please watch out for interim support at $1,250.00 levels for a bounce. The metal broke out of the triangle structure and rushed through $1,270.00 level before pulling back. Furthermore, it has printed fresh lows at $1,262.00 level now and should bottom around $1,250.00 level as A of the corrective drop A-B-C. The metal is seen to be trading at $1,267.00 level for now, looking to rally through $1,290.00 level before finding resistance. The wave structure indicates that the metal is expected to drop lower at least through $1,250.00 level before it produces a meaningful retracement. Please note that the metal is setting up for a deeper correction lower before the rally resumes. It is recommended to remain flat now and look to sell around $1,290.00/92.00 levels again. Immediate resistance is now seen at $1,305.00/10.00 levels, while support is at $1,250.00 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now. Look to short at $1,290.00/92.00 levels, stop above $1,310.00 levels, target $1,250.00

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of USDX for October 06, 2016

USDX still finds resistance at the 96.27 level, where bulls abandoned attempts to consolidate higher. The next step for the index should be the 96.74 in the north side, while a pullback can drive a move towards the 200 SMA price zone around the 95.79. We can expect a bullish reaction in that area, as it can act as a dynamic support.

USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.27 / 96.74

H1 chart's support levels: 95.79 / 95.49

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 96.27, take profit is at 96.74 and stop loss is at 95.79.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 06, 2016

GBP/USD is currently trading inside a recovery mode above the 1.2700 handle and we could expect a test of the 1.2800 psychological zone. This should be taken as a corrective move and it could be targeting to reach the 200 SMA in coming days. However, if the pair does a breakout below the 1.2717 level, then we can expect a decline to the 1.2650 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2800 / 1.2850

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2717 / 1.2650

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2717, take profit is at 1.2650 and stop loss is at 1.2782.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of Gold for October 05, 2016

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Overview

The gold price broke the $1,297.75 level yesterday and closed the daily candlestick below it, which pushes the price to extend the correctional bearish wave on the short-term basis and targets $1,249.94 levels mainly. Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested in the upcoming sessions supported by the negative pressure provided by the EMA50. A breach of $1,297.75 levels will stop the suggested decline and lead the price to regain its main bullish track; while a break of $1,297.75 levels will extend the bearish wave to $1,211.31 as the next main station. The expected trading range for today is between the $1,249.94 support and the $1,285.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for October 05, 2016

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Overview

The silver price showed negative dynamic yesterday surpassing and settling below $18.30 levels. This puts the price under extra pressure, opening the way to $17.43 levels initially. On the other hand, we noted that the broken level formed a neckline in the double top pattern that has negative targets that might extend to $16.56 followed by $15.49. Thus, we expect the bearish bias to prevail in the upcoming trading, unless the price managed to breach and holding above $18.30 and $19.38 levels. The expected trading range for today is between the $17.43 support and the $18.30 resistance.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 5, 2016

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On May 16, a bullish pullback towards 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was expected to offer a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. However, a lack of a significant bearish rejection was manifested during recent consolidations.

On May 18, temporary bullish fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opened the way towards the 1.3180 level where significant bearish pressure was originated.

Bearish persistence below 1.3000-1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is needed to enhance bearish momentum in the market.

However, On August 18, signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2830 which led to the current bullish breakout above 1.3000.

This week, daily persistence below 1.2950 (61.8% Fibonacci level) should be achieved in order to enhance the bearish side of the market. Initial bearish targets are located at 1.2670 and 1.2580.

On the other hand, note that daily fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opens the way towards the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) where price action should be watched for a better SELL entry with a lower risk/reward ratio.

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