Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for August 26, 2014

Overview


In 4H chart, closing below the resistance level of 172.60 gives the price an opportunity for a slightly bearish move again. As it is shown here, currently the price is trying to continue its bearish move by breaking the support level of 172.00 and closing 4H below which is tested now. In that case, we might get another opportunity for more sell signals which opens the way towards 171.50 as the first target. Then, the price should test the support level of 171.50 to continue its bearish move. But as long as the price stabilizes above the support level of 172.00, this cancels the first scenario.


Resistance and Support levels: R3 (173.75), R2(173.30), R1(172.60), S1 (172.00), S2(171.50), S3(171.00)


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 25, 2014

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Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in a lower range after hitting a seven-month high at 104.49 on Monday. USD/JPY is undermined by the disappointing U.S. data. For example, new home sales unexpectedly fell 2.4% on month to 412,000 in July (defying forecast for 4.7% increase to 425,000); Dallas Fed business activity index dropped to 7.1 in August from 12.7 in July; Markit flash August U.S. services PMI came is lower at 58.5 versus July's final reading of 60.8. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.383% versus% 2.403% late Friday), Japanese export sales, JPY demand on retreating yen crosses amid diminished risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 2.01% to 11.7) even as S&P 500 closed up 0.48% at 1,997.92 on dovish comments from ECB President Draghi. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers and higher shorter-dated U.S. Treasury yields (more policy-sensitive 2-year yield at 0.504% versus 0.492% late Friday) as less-dovish-than-expected speech from Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen at Jackson Hole on Friday kept alive speculation the Fed could raise rates sooner than expected.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing, but stochastics is turning bearish to the overbought zone.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 104.25 and the second target at 104.50. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 103.40. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 103. The pivot point is at 103.65.


Resistance levels:

104.25

104.50

104.80


Support levels:

103.40

103

102.70


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 26, 2014

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Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a nine-month high at 0.9179 on Monday. It is supported by the dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy, franc sales on retreating CHF/JPY cross, and contagion from weak EUR on CHF. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. The daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter is in the overbought zone; five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9175 and the second target at 0.92. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9110. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9070. The pivot point is at 0.9125.


Resistance levels:

0.9175

0.92

0.9225



Support levels:


0.9110

0.9070

0.9050


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 26, 2014

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Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a six-month low at 0.8313 this morning. The NZD sentiment is dented by the wider-than-expected New Zealand July trade deficit of NZ$692 million (versus forecast NZ$500 million). NZD/USD is also weighed by the Kiwi sales on retreating NZD/JPY cross, weak dairy prices, reduced expectations of further rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this year and Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the NZD-USD interest differential. The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the latter is in the oversold zone; five and 15-day moving averages are declining.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8300. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8270. The pivot point stands at 0.8380. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8435 and the second target at 0.8465.


Resistance levels:

0.8435

0.8465

0.8490


Support levels:

0.83

0.827

0.8255


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Daily analysis of Silver for August 26, 2014



Overview


As it was expected, the metal took an upward move in case of closing above the resistance level of 19.50. Today, as it is shown in the H4 chart, the metal took a slightly upward move after breaking the resistance area and managed to close 4H above it. Currently, it is approaching the resistance level of 19.75. More bullish signals are expected as long as silver is trading above this resistance area with the first target few pips below the resistance level of 20.00. But if silver closes 4H below 19.75, we should wait for testing the support area again before making decision. Besides, it cancels the bullish move scenario.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (20.20), R2 (20.00), R1 (19.75), S1 (19.50), S2 (19.30), S3 (19.00).


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 26, 2014

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Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is affected by the weak EUR sentiment, diminished investor risk appetite, and Japanese export sales. But EUR/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers. The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing, but stochastics is turned bearish in the overbought zone.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 172.70 and the second target at 172.90. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 171.50. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 171.15. The pivot point is at 171.90.


Resistance levels:

172.70

172.90

173.30



Support levels:


171.50

171.15

170.75


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 26, 2014

General overview for 26/08/2014 14:30 CET


There are some first indications that the impulsive green wave (i) has been completed and now the market is in a corrective cycle of green wave (ii). Any breakout below the level of 136.98 confirms the bearish bias and lower prices should be expected soon. Moreover, breakout below the level of 136.74 is even more negative as this is a bearish zone entrance. On the other hand, only a breakout above the last high at the level of 138.02 invalidates the bearish impulsive outlook.


Support/Resistance:


138.05 - WR1


138.02 - Swing High |Invalidation Level|


137.98 - Wave 2 of 3 High


137.42 - Weekly Pivot


137.25 - Intraday Resistance


136.85 - WS1


136.70 - Bearish Zone Level


136.24 - WS2


Trading recommendations:


The situation hasn't changed much since yesterday, so the short orders from the last week with SL above the level of 138.02 should be still kept open. New short orders can be added if the level of 136.98 is violated again, with the same SL as before and TP at the level of 136.70 with a quite possible downside extension to the level of 135.70.


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EUR/NZD analysis for August 26, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.5860 in a volume just below average according to the 4H time frame, which is a sign that buying looks very risky. It is still unsafe to buy anything, so watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. If the price breaks the level of 1.5710 in a higher volume, we may see potential testing the level of 1.5595.


Fibonacci pivot levels :


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5827


R2: 1.5853


R3: 1.5896


Support levels:


S1: 1.5742


S2: 1.5716


S3: 1.5674


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.


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Gold analysis for August 26, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1,290.32 in a ultra high volume according to the 1H time frame. We can observe an ultra high volume (buying climax) according to the 1h timeframe, which is a sign that buying looks very risky. Our Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1,284.00 is broken. So, we may see potential testing the level of 1,260.00 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,292.00 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,303.00.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,281.02


R2: 1,282.58


R3: 1,285.10


Support levels:


S1: 1,275.98


S2: 1,274.42


S3: 1,271.90


Trading recommendations: Buying Gold looks risky since the price has broken the support level.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 26, 2014

General overview for 26/08/2014 14:10 CET


The corrective cycle is fully in progress and the last remaining wave to the downside is missing here. There are three main target levels for green wave c of the corrective cycle to complete. The first target is at the level of 1.0959 and the shape of the correction would be a running flat. The second target is at the level of 1.0936 and the shape of the correction would be a running flat again. The last target is at the level of 1.0920 and the shape of the correction would be an irregular flat. Please, notice that all of those corrective cycle are simple corrections and the market might evolve into more complex and time-consuming. Any breakout below the level of 1.09200 is bearish and the possibility of last swing low test would increase.


Support/Resistance:


1.1020 - WR1


1.0999 - Swing High


1.0974 - Intraday Resistance


1.0959 - Target Level #1


1.0947 - Weekly Pivot


1.0936 - Target Level #2


1.0920 - Target LEvel #3


1.0911 - WS1


Trading recommendations:


Swing traders should keep the long-term buy orders still open with the SL below the level of 1.0858.


Day traders should open short positions only if the level of 1.0958 is violated and this is for a quick scalp trade only with TP at the level of 1.0936.


It is recommended to refrain from trading and wait for the corrective cycle to complete.


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for August 26, 2014

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Trading recommendations :



  • According to the previous events, the price is still below the weekly pivot point. Subsequently, the descending movement will probably be lower than the 1.6622 level. As it is known, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Therefore, it will a good sign to sell below the weekly pivot point (1.6622) with the first target of 1.6560 (the double bottom). It will call for a downtrend to continue its bearish movement towards the price of 1.6509 which represents the weekly support 1. Also, it should noted that stop loss should always be taken into account. For that, it will be very useful to set your stop loss because the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Consequently, stop loss should be placed above the resistance level at the price of 1.6650.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 26, 2014

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Overview :



  • The EUR/USD pair has rebounded from the minor support at the level of 1.3174. Now, it is approaching its support in order to test it. But as it is shown on the chart, the price has opened below the gap at the price of 1.3194. Moreover, it should be noted that the price of 1.3285 represents the weekly pivot point on August 26, 2014. Equally important, the weekly pivot point coincides with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels in H1 chart. Consequently, it will probably start upside movement in this area and recover again. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell at this spot with the first target of 1.3174 (it should be noted that this level will form the weekly support 1) and continue towards 1.3145 to form a new double bottom. On the other hand, in case of a break of 1.3308, a good place for stop loss will be above 1.3320


Observations :



  • The EUR/USD/CHF pair was calling for the bearish market from the level of 1.3285 this week.

  • The weekly pivot point will be set at the price of 1.3285.

  • The level of 1.3174 represents support 1.

  • If the trend is of an upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: EUR is in the uptrend and USD is in the downtrend.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 26, 2014

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Overview :



  • The EUR/USD pair has rebounded from the minor support at the level of 1.3174. Now, it is approaching its support in order to test it. But as it is shown on the chart, the price has opened below the gap at the price of 1.3194. Moreover, it should be noted that the price of 1.3285 represents the weekly pivot point on August 26, 2014. Equally important, the weekly pivot point coincides with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels in H1 chart. Consequently, it will probably start upside movement in this area and recover again. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell at this spot with the first target of 1.3174 (it should be noted that this level will form the weekly support 1) and continue towards 1.3145 to form a new double bottom. On the other hand, in case of a break of 1.3308, a good place for stop loss will be above 1.3320.


Observations :



  • The EUR/USD/CHF pair was calling for the bearish market from the level of 1.3285 this week.

  • The weekly pivot point will be set at the price of 1.3285.

  • The level of 1.3174 represents support 1.

  • If the trend is of an upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: EUR is in the uptrend and USD is in the downtrend.


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#USDX Technical analysis for August 26, 2014

The Dollar index made a double top yesterday and got rejected at the previous highs at 82.64. The short-term bearish reversal has brought the index right on the Ichimoku cloud support. At 82.40 the Ichimoku cloud support should hold the selling pressures and give the index a strong upward bounce towards 82.70.


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The Dollar index has broken the green downward sloping trend line, got rejected at 82.64 and is now back testing this break out level. Support at 82.40 is important for the short term. A strong bounce towards the highs is expected as long as the index remains above 82.40. Breaking below 82.40 and below the Ichimoku cloud could push the index towards 82.


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Strong resistance is found at 82.70 in the daily chart as prices have hit the upper channel boundaries. Critical daily support is found at 81.85 where the channel boundaries are. Bulls should be very cautious and keep their stops tight.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 26, 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.5898


R2: 1.5888


R1: 1.5867


Current spot: 1.5828


S1: 1.5815


S2: 1.5796


S3: 1.5785


Technical summary:


We have seen a break above minor resistance at 1.5824 as the first strong indication, that wave 3 higher is unfolding, but we still need a break above resistance at 1.5867 to confirm that wave 3 higher is developing. A break above 1.5867 will confirm wave 3 higher towards at least 1.6188 and possibly even higher towards 1.6496. In the short term, only a break below 1.5692 will delay the expected upside pressure.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 1.5725 with stop placed at 1.5690. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy EUR near 1.5795 or upon a break above 1.5867 with the same stop at 1.5690.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 26, 2014

2014-08-26-EURJPY-8H.png


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 137.67


R2: 137.47


R1: 137.30


Current spot: 137.12


S1: 137.01


S2: 136.81


S3: 136.61


Technical summary:


We have seen a break below the minor support line from 135.73, which is the first strong indication that the final wave v decline towards 134.34 is unfolding, but we still need a break below 136.81 to confirm that wave v is indeed developing for the expected decline towards the equality target between wave A and C at 134.34. Only a break above resistance at 137.91 will invalidate the bearish count and call for a rally higher to 140.07.


Trading recommendation:


We are short in EUR from 137.75 with stop placed at 137.70. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 137.30 with the same stop at 137.70.


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Technical Analysis of Crude for August 26, 2014

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The oil has been consolidating for 4 days in a row, making a higher lows and making minor support at the 93.35 level. Today, the oil opened with a bullish note held above the support level. The daily RSI is consolidating at the oversold levels. For an hourly basis, the prices are closed above 35DEMA and 12ema as well. We expect a corrective pull back towards the 93.94 and 94.40 levels. A h4 candle is to be closed above 94.40; we expect some strong pull back to lead to the 94.80 and 95-95.20 levels.


Support is at 93.40 and 93.10.


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Intraday analysis of Gold for August 26, 2014

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The metal has been making minor support at the $1,276 level for the fourth trading session at a row. Hope today it will move higher initially to the $1,285-$1,286 levels. The metal has been consolidating for the last 3 trading days. The metal had an initial resistance level at $1,284.50 (200DSma). A daily closure above $1,284.50 will take the metal towards $1,291 and $1,295 easily.


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Weekly forecast and an intraday analysis of EUR/USD for August 26-29, 2014

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The pair held the 100DSma in yesterday's session and closed above that. But, today in Asia's session the pair hit the 100DSma and trying its luck at 20DSma at 172, as of now it made a low at the 172.17 level. The pair has strong resistance at the 173 level. In the short term, until the pair closes below 173, selling on an upward move will mint the money. A daily close above 173, it can climb up to 173.30 and 173.50 in the near run, 174-174.25 in the medium run. On the down side, it has support at 172. A daily closure below this could lead to selling up to 171.63 and 171 in the near term.


Support is at 172,171.63, and 171


Resistanceis at 173, 173.50, and 174.25


GBPJPYH4.png

For an intraday purpose, the prices hit the 12ema and 21hrsma. The pair has support at the 172-171.95 levels. The pair was rejected from the 2-month descending trend line. We recommend a fresh sell below 171.95 with a target at 171.63, panic will trigger below this level.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 26, 2014

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The eurozone will not release any economic data today, but the US will unveil its Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, HPI m/m, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, CB Consumer Confidence, and Richmond Manufacturing Index. So amid the reports, EUR/USD is likely to move low to medium volatility today.


Today’s technical levels:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.3250.

Strong Resistance:1.3242.

Original Resistance: 1.3229.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3216.

Target Inner Area: 1.3185.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3154.

Original Support: 1.3141.

Strong Support: 1.3128.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3120.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Short-term trend levels and intraday recommendation for EUR/JPY (August 26, 2014)

EURJPYDaily.png


The pair was rejected at previous high 138.02 (August 01 high) on Friday and started moving lower. It made a short-term top at the level of 138 in the daily chart. It hit the 50DSma and closed below it, thus providing sell signal on a weekly basis. The pair is trading at a 4-day low. In today's Asia's session, the pair hit the 20DSma as well. The pair looks weak on the intraday and weekly basis.


Weekly basis: Until the pair closes below the level of 138, sell on the rise.


Monthly basis: Until the pair closes below the level of 138.70, sell on the rise.


On the down side, it has a parallel support at the level of 137. Below it, 136.75-136.60 should be used as a weekly support level.


Until the pair closes below the 138.70, the level of 134.50-134 will act as an open target in the near term on the down side.


EURJPYH4.png

On intraday basis, the price has closed below and is trading below 12ema, negative for hourly and intraday trading. As soon as the candlestick closes above 137.45, only then some up move is seen to take place.


Resistance 137.37 137.45 137.66


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 26, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will release the SPPI y/y and the US will release its Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, HPI m/m, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, CB Consumer Confidence, and Richmond Manufacturing Index. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.


Today’s technical levels:


Resistance. 3: 104.61.

Resistance. 2: 104.41.

Resistance. 1: 104.20.

Support. 1: 103.95.

Support. 2: 103.75.

Support. 3: 103.54.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Aug 26, 2014
















Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The EUR/JPY pair has retraced lower towards 137.00 levels as seen here. Please note that the back side of the trend line is also passing through the same region, which is now acting as support. It is recommended to initiate long positions at current levels. Risk remains below 136.00.


2. Support is seen at 136.00 followed by 134.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at 138.00 (interim), followed by 139.50 and higher respectively.


3. The structure indicates that EUR/JPY could extend its counter trend rally towards at least 139.50 levels.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate long positions now, stop at 136.00, target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for Aug 26, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The GBP/CHF pair has run through the 1.5200 levels for now, after printing lows at 1.5050 last week. The pair could still test the falling trend line at 1.5250 levels as seen here; before dipping lower further. It is recommended to initiate short positions around 1.5250 region.


2. Support is seen at 1.4950/60, followed by 1.4770 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5250, followed by 1.5350 and 1.5450 respectively.


3. The structure indicates that GBP/CHF could face resistance around 1.5250 levels and turn lower.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate short positions around 1.5250 levels.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of Gold for Aug 26, 2014
















Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Gold has remained sideways since last 2 trading sessions as seen here. The metal seems to have formed base around the $1,271.00 level and should be ready to rally higher from here on. It is recommended to remain long for now.


2. Support is seen at $1,270.00 (interim), followed by $1,260.00, $1,240.00, while resistance is seen at $1,324.00, followed by $1,340.00 and higher respectively.


3. The structure indicates that Gold remains in control of bulls untill prices remain above $1,260.00/40.00 levels.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop below $1,270.00, target is open.


Good luck!


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Daily analysis of USDX for August 26, 2014

Daily chart: The USDX opened the week with a bullish gap. So far, this instrument has not filled this gap. Now, the USDX is trying to stay above the level of 82.51, so it is likely to begin to form a bullish pattern to climb up to the resistance level of 83.22. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.


USDXDaily.png

H4 chart: The USDX is finding support on the bullish trend line that is near the level of 82.55. So this instrument could perform a corrective movement to fill the gap. Now, the USDX has formed a fractal, so the USDX could climb up to the resistance level of 82.80. The MACD indicator stays in positive territory.


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H1 chart: The USDX continues to find support at the level of 82.50 since this instrument opened the week with a bullish gap. So the USDX is trying to climb back up to the resistance level of 82.67. If the USDX manages to make a breakout at that level, the next target would be the resistance level of 82.85. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 82.67, take profit is at 82.85, and stop loss is at 82.49.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 26, 2014

Daily chart: GBP/USD has made a rebound in the support level of 1.6540 so that it is trying to climb to the 200-day moving average which is close to the resistance level of 1.6668. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 1.6766, which would be the beginning of a bullish trend in the medium term. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.


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H4 chart: This pair has filled the gap that left open this week, so it encountered resistance at the resistance level of 1.6583. Now, the GBP/USD pair could be a breakout at the support level of 1.6553 to fall to the next objective at the level of 1.6464. For now, we recommend caution when placing buy orders at the current levels. The MACD indicator stays in positive territory.


1409004117_GBPUSDH4.png


H1 chart: The GBP/USD pair tried to consolidate above the resistance level of 1.6578, but now this pair is making a pullback at current levels. So the GBP/USD may fall to the support level of 1.6544. There, it is likely that this pair will start to form a bearish pattern again. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.


GBPUSDH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6544, take profit is at 1.6507, and stop loss is at 1.6581.


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