BITCOIN Analysis for July 31, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with bearish swings today which made the price break below $8,000, defying the sentiment about pushing higher with a target towards $10,000 area. Despite the today's impulsive bearish pressure, the price is still expected to push higher and the overall bullish bias is still intact as the dynamic level of 20 EMA is expected to work as important support for a while. The bearish pressure today engulfed the previous bullish corrective momentum. However, as the price remains above $6,500 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue to push the price higher with a target towards $10,000 in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 6500

RESISTANCE: 8000, 10000

BIAS: Long-term Bullish, Short-term Bearish

MOMENTUM: Volatile

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for July 31. The pair remains inside the narrowing corridor

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on Monday, the currency pair EUR / USD added about 50 percentage points and is still traded inside a tapering corridor. The fifth time the pair tested the upper line forming the corridor, and the attempt of its breakthrough is again unsuccessful. If the next attempt is still ended with the breakthrough of this line, then the entire wave pattern will require additions. Also in this case, the instrument will proceed to build an upward set of waves with the first targets, about 1.1834, which corresponds to 200.0% of Fibonacci. However, the working option is now still the option of reducing the pair within the proposed wave 5.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1507 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.1444 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1834 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

1.1957 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The correction wave 4 is still characterized as complete. Thus, I recommend continuing the formation of the pair's sales with the aim of building wave 5 of the downward trend section with targets located near the marks of 1.1507 and 1.1444, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci. To buy a pair, I recommend returning after the breakout of the upper line of the narrowing corridor and the refinement of all wave counting.

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The daily review of EUR / USD as of July 31. Ichimoku Indicator

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EUR / USD

Uncertainty, which lasts for quite a long time, is preserved. The initiative is now on the side of the players to raise, they again rose to the resistance of 1.1708 (the monthly Fibo Kijun) and make an attempt to gain a foothold in the daytime cloud. The way out of the zone of uncertainty, through the update of the maximum extremes (1.1750 - 1.1791 - 1.1852), will allow players to continue to rise on the rise. Landmarks for recovery are weekly levels (1.1908 - 1.2032) and the upper boundary of the daytime cloud. Bears to leave the zone of uncertainty, also need to overcome the extremes (1.1575 - 1.1508), then the main task for them will be the breakdown of the lower boundary of the weekly cloud and the formation of the downside target.

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Lateral movement led to the fact that the pair is spinning around the clouds of younger timeframes, not working out some goals for the breakdown of the cloud. At the moment, the advantage is on the players' side to raise. The main task for them is to exit the zone of uncertainty. Support can be noted on 1,1681 - 1,1655 - 1,1628. The fastening below will give the initiative to the hands of bears, for which the desire to leave the zone of uncertainty will also serve as the main task in the first stage.

Indicator parameters:

All time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

The color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

Clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

The color of additional lines:

Support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

Horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

Trend lines - purple.

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Overview of the GBP / USD as of July 31, 2018

GBP / USD

The British pound on Monday succumbed to the influence of the euro, but grew by less than 22 points. The growth was stopped by the resistance of the trend line on the daily chart and the expectations of the meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday. The market probability of raising the rate at this meeting is 90%. Such a high probability (determined by futures on rates) causes bewilderment. The Bank of England did not give instructions for raising the rate at this meeting, and traditionally, there are no false signals, even the Fed and the ECB switched to a clear communication. The Bank of Japan stands alone. A small optimism pound gave yesterday the growth of lending, private individuals in June were issued 5.4 billion pounds against expectations of 5.3 billion pounds.

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Today, important data will be released in the United States. Personal incomes of consumers in June are expected to grow by 0.4%, expenses also by 0.4%. Business activity in Chicago is expected to decrease from 64.1 to 61.9, consumer confidence for the current month is expected to increase slightly from 126.4 to 126.5.

We are waiting for the price reduction to support the trend line 1.3019, after which, following the meeting of the Bank of England, the decline to the next support at 1.2800.

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Fractal analysis of GOLD as of July 31

Forecast for July 31:

Analytical review on the scale of H1:

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According to Gold, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1250.88, 1242.62, 1239.59, 1235.48, 1229.05, 1220.96, 1218.14 and 1213.01. Here, we follow the formation of the upward structure of July 19. The continued upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1229.05. Here, the first target is 1235.48 and the breakdown of which will allow us to count on the movement to the level of 1239.59 and in the corridor of 1239.59 - 1242.62 is the consolidation. The potential value for the top is the level of 1250.88, upon reaching this level we expect a pullback downwards.

The range of 1220.96 - 1218.15 is the key support for the ascending structure. Its passage by the price will have to develop the downward movement. In this case, the first target is 1213.01.

The main trend is the upward structure of July 19, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1229.20 Take profit: 1235.20

Buy: 1235.50 Take profit: 1239.40

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 1218.00 Take profit: 1213.00

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs as of July 31

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the price forms a local potential from July 27 to continue the upward trend. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the price is in correction and the continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3167. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price forms a local descending structure from July 27. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the continuation of the movement downwards is expected after the passage at the price of the noise range of 110.84 - 110.60. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price forms potential initial conditions for the development of the upward cycle. For the Pound / Yen currency pair, we also expect the departure to the correction zone from the downward trend and the formation of the potential for the top.

Forecast for July 31:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1853, 1.1819, 1.1794, 1.1754, 1.1723, 1.1693, 1.1680, 1.1655 and 1.1615. Here, the price forms a local structure for the continuation of the development of the upward trend of July 27. The continued upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1723. In this case, the target is 1.1754 and near this level is the consolidation. The break of the level of 1.1755 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the level of 1.1794. The breakdown of 1.1794 will allow us to count on the move to 1.1819, near which we expect consolidation, as well as a possible pullback in the correction. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.1853. In general, the current price is in the second time zone, where we expect final registration of the initial conditions.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 1.1693 - 1.1680 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1655 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is a local structure for the top of July 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1725 Take profit: 1.1752

Buy 1.1756 Take profit: 1.1792

Sell: 1.1680 Take profit: 1.1660

Sell: 1.1650 Take profit: 1.1620

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3356, 1.3303, 1.3228, 1.3200, 1.3167, 1.3111, 1.3079 and 1.3031. Here, we continue to follow the development of the upward structure of July 19 and at the current time, the price is in the adjustment area. The continued upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3167. In this case, the first target is 1.3200. The passage at the price of the noise range of 1.3200 - 1.3228 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3303 and near this level is the consolidation. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.3356 and the probable achievement is July 26 - 27.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 1.3111 - 1.3079 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of a downward structure. In this case, the target is 1.3031.

The main trend is the upward structure from July 19, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3167 Take profit: 1.3200

Buy: 1.3200 Take profit: 1.3226

Sell: 1.3110 Take profit: 1.3080

Sell: 1.3076 Take profit: 1.3031

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.9935, 0.9913, 0.9897, 0.9865, 0.9845, 0.9832, 0.9792 and 0.9763. Here, the price forms a local structure for the downward movement of July 27. The continued downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9865. In this case, the target is 0.9845 and near this level is the consolidation. The passage at the price of the noise range of 0.9845 - 0.9832 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 0.9792. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 0.9763 and near this level, we expect consolidation, as well as a possible rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the corridor of 0.9897 - 0.9913 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9935 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is a local downward structure from July 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9897 Take profit: 0.9911

Buy: 0.9915 Take profit: 0.9933

Sell: 0.9865 Take profit: 0.9845

Sell: 0.9830 Take profit: 0.9794

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 111.80, 111.42, 111.21, 110.84, 110.60, 110.15 and 109.82. Here, we follow the formation of the medium-term descending of July 19. The continuation of the movement downwards is possible after the passage at the price of the noise range of 110.84 - 110.60. In this case, the target is 110.15, upon reaching this level is the consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 109.82, from which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 111.62 - 111.89 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 112.29 and this level is the key support for the downward structure from July 19.

The main trend is the formation of the medium-term structure of July 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.62 Take profit: 111.87

Buy: 111.92 Take profit: 112.26

Sell: 110.58 Take profit: 110.17

Sell: 110.13 Take profit: 109.84

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For the Canadian Dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3158, 1.3131, 1.3080, 1.3052, 1.2988, 1.2945, 1.2881 and 1.2845. Here, the price is in the 13th time zone and entered the equilibrium state. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2988 - 1.2945. We consider the level of 1.2881 to be a potential value for the downward trend, after which consolidation is possible, and also a rollback to the top. At the moment, the price is in the final in the 8th time zone for the downward structure from July 20.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 1.3052 - 1.3080 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3131 and the range of 1.3131 - 1.3158 is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 1.3085 Take profit: 1.3130

Sell: 1.2985 Take profit: 1.2945

Sell: 1.2942 Take profit: 1.2884

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For the Australian Dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7592, 0.7551, 0.7522, 0.7477, 0.7434, 0.7410, 0.7381, 0.7356 and 0.7324. Here, we follow the development of the upward structure of July 20. The continued upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7434. In this case, the first target is 0.7477 and near this level is the consolidation. The breakdown of 0.7477 will allow us to count on the move to 0.7522 and in the corridor of 0.7522 - 0.7551 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is the level of 0.7592, after reaching this level we expect a pullback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 0.7381 - 0.7356 and the breakdown of the last value will have to the development of a downward structure. Here, the first target is 0.7324.

The main trend is the upward structure from July 20, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7436 Take profit: 0.7475

Buy: 0.7480 Take profit: 0.7520

Sell: 0.7378 Take profit: 0.7358

Sell: 0.7354 Take profit: 0.7326

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 131.39, 131.04, 130.80, 130.44, 130.13, 129.81, 129.58 and 129.12. Here, the price forms the potential for the development of the upward structure of July 27. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 130.13. In this case, the target is 130.44 and the breakdown of which should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the level of 130.80 and in the corridor of 130.80 - 131.04 is the consolidation. The potential value for the top is the level of 131.39, from which we expect a pullback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 129.81 - 129.58 and the breakdown of the last value will have to form a local descending structure. Here, the potential target is 129.12.

The main trend is the formation of the potential for the top of July 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 130.15 Take profit: 130.40

Buy: 130.50 Take profit: 130.80

Sell: 129.80 Take profit: 129.60

Sell: 129.50 Take profit: 129.15

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 148.11, 147.37, 146.89, 146.24, 145.01, 144.33 and 143.46. Here, we expect the design of the potential for the upward movement, for which a breakdown at the level of 146.30 is required. In the corridor of 145.01 - 144.33, we expect short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 143.46, the movement to which we expect after the breakdown of 144.30.

We expect the correction to continue after the breakdown at 146.24. In this case, the first target is 146.89. The short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 146.90 - 147.37 and the breakdown of the last value will have to develop an ascending structure. Here, the first potential target is 148.11.

The main trend is a downward structure from July 16, we expect a correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 146.30 Take profit: 146.85

Buy: 146.90 Take profit: 147.35

Sell: 145.00 Take profit: 144.45

Sell: 144.25 Take profit: 143.55

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EUR / USD. 30 July. Results of the day. A common opinion among traders in the run-up to the Fed meeting is not

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 66p - 62p - 75p - 104p - 43p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 70p (84p).

On Monday, July 30, the EUR / USD currency pair was trading higher despite the fact that there was no important macroeconomic statistics on the first trading day of the week. There were no performances of Trump, there was no Draghi's appearance. Nevertheless, the pair showed very high volatility and confident movement up. Thus, the conclusion suggests that at the moment, a pair of so-called "swings" have been formed. This phenomenon is characterized by multidirectional movements, which change usually once every two days. Thus, before the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting, which will be held on Wednesday, August 1, "swings" may persist. Further, everything will depend on whether the Fed will raise the rate once again and what comments will be given on monetary policy. Experts agree that at the meeting on August 1, the rate will not be raised. Hence, all attention will be to the comments of representatives of the Fed, in particular, Jerome Powell. The topic most interesting for everyone is, of course, the trade war between China and the United States. Thus, Powell can touch upon this topic, and his words will determine the further dynamics of the currency pair's movement. Earlier, Powell had already voiced his concerns about the new trading conditions introduced by Donald Trump. However, he also noted that trade policy is not his jurisdiction, so he can do nothing. In turn, Trump accused the Fed of too fast raising the key rate, which adversely affects the dollar and complicates the process of servicing the US public debt. Thus, even a certain confrontation has emerged between the Fed and the US president. Anyway, but the "hawkish" rhetoric Federal Reserve can send a couple down, "pigeon" - up.

Trading recommendations:

On the EUR / USD pair, an upward movement began. Thus, today and in the first half of Tuesday, we recommend trading on the rise with the targets of 1.1718, 1.1731 and 1.1745. The level of 1.1745 looks now for the pair as insurmountable, so a downward movement may begin from it.

It is recommended to open the sell orders after securing the pair below the critical line with the targets of 1.1646 and 1.1602. In this case, the initiative on the instrument will go into the hands of the bears for several days.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for July 30. The downward part of the trend may become more complicated

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on July 27, the GBP / USD currency pair passed in each direction no more than 25 percentage points and completed the day at the opening levels. Thus, the pair remains within the framework of constructing a downward trend section, in spite of the fact that the expected wave 3, a, looks completely completed. The main factor determining the trend is now the downward corridor, which retains the prospect of lower quotations. A successful attempt to break through the upper line generates the pair's transition to the construction of the uptrend section of the trend.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3301 - 161.8% of Fibonacci (the oldest Fibonacci grid)

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2962 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

1.2809 - 261.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair can still complicate the downward trend section. If this is the case, then the decline in quotations will resume with targets near the estimated levels of 1.2962 and 1.2809, which equates to 200.0% and 261.8% of Fibonacci. The breakthrough mark of 1.22962 will require the introduction of additions to the current wave counting. I recommend that the pair buy the pair after a successful attempt to break the top line of the corridor with targets above 33 figures.

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Trump expects large growth from the US economy

The US dollar lost a number of positions to the euro and the British pound, despite a good report on the growth of the US economy in the second quarter of this year. The outlook was slightly worse than the economists' expectations, and weak data on consumer confidence led to profit fixation in the short positions of the EURUSD pair.

According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, the US economy in the second quarter showed an excellent growth rate, which is directly related to an increase in consumer spending, as well as an increase in exports. A good inflow of capital investment companies also made a significant contribution to GDP.

So, according to the data, US GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2018 grew by 4.1% per annum, whereas in the 1st quarter, according to revised data, GDP grew by 2.2%. Economists expected GDP growth of 4.4% in the second quarter. Compared to the same period of the previous year, GDP growth was 2.8%.

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Such data, along with a gradual increase in consumer prices and the labor market, allow the US Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates this year. A number of representatives of the Federal Reserve have repeatedly noted the need to further raise rates to prevent overheating of the economy.

Most likely, the US Federal Reserve will leave its key rate unchanged at the next meeting next week, but in September it will again increase it by a quarter of a percentage point, after which the range of rates will be 2% -2.25%.

Immediately after the report on economic growth, US President Donald Trump said that he said he expects further economic growth, which will be much faster than before. According to Trump, annual GDP growth may be 3% or higher, as currently, the monthly growth is very, very stable.

The pressure on the US dollar was provided by data on a small decrease in the consumer confidence in the US in July this year. According to the report, consumers have become less positive about the economic situation due to the trade policy of the White House.

So, the final consumer sentiment index of the University of Michigan in July 2018 was at the level of 97.9 points against 98.2 points in June this year. Economists predicted that for July the value would be 97.3 points against the preliminary value of 97.1 points.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, it should be noted that the trade is conducted in the middle of a wide side channel, to which I have drawn attention in my past reviews. The lower support range of this channel is located in the area of 1.1575-1.1595, while the upper range is perfectly visible in the area of 1.1730 - 1.1750.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 31, 2018

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The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.

Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern.

Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears.

That's why, bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for a valid SELL entry.

Quick bearish decline took place towards 0.6800 where a false bearish breakdown occurred.

This allowed temporary bearish movement to occur towards 0.6680. However, the pair failed to maintain enough bearish momentum.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 again.

This was followed by a recent bullish reversal pattern (123 pattern) which enhances the bullish side of the market. Recent signs of bullish weakness were manifested on the chart.

The bulls are failing to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6820.

Bullish fixation above 0.6820 should be maintained in order to allow further bullish advancement towards 0.6900 and 0.6980.

Trade Recommendations:

The price zone 0.6750-0.6800 still constitutes a demand zone to be considered for a valid BUY entry.

Bullish persistence above 0.6820 is needed to provide enough bullish momentum towards 0.6900 then probably 0.6980.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 31, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Shortly after, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1990.

This was followed by bearish breakdown below the price zone of 1.1850-1.1750. This price zone has been standing as a significant Supply zone since June 2018.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent demand zone where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.

On July 10, signs of bearish rejection were manifested around 1.1750. That's why, a bearish movement was expected to occur towards 1.1650.

Lack of enough bearish momentum allowed another bullish pullback to occur again towards 1.1750 (the lower limit of the depicted supply zone) where another episode of bearish pressure was initiated this week.

That's why, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the consolidation range of 1.1750-1.1520 until breakout occurs in either direction.

Conservative traders should be waiting for a bullish breakout above 1.1750 as a valid bullish signal. Bullish targets would be located around 1.1850 and 1.1990.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences as of July 31. Euro-currency grows before the Fed meeting

4h

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart fulfilled growth to the correctional level of 61.8% at 1.1721. Exit from the Fibo level of 61.8% on July 31 will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop towards the correction levels of 50.0% - 1.1680 and 38.2% - 1.1639. Brewing divergences today is not observed in any indicator. Fixation of the pair above the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the chances of further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% at 1.1771.

The Fibo grid was established on the boundaries of June 14, 2018 and June 21, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair remains fastened between correction levels of 76.4% to 1.1789 and 100.0% to 1.1553. Bullish divergence in the CCI indicator still allows expecting a growth to the Fibo level of 76.4%. The pair's retracement from the correction level of 76.4% will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop towards the correction level of 100.0%. Fixation of the pair above the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% at 1.1938.

The Fibo grid was established on the boundaries of November 7, 2017 and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

New purchases of EUR/USD pair can be made with the target of 1.1771 and the Stop Loss level under the correction level of 61.8% if there is a close above the Fibo level of 1.1721.

Selling the EUR / USD pair is possible with the targets of 1,1680 and 1.1639 if there will be a retreat from the correction level of 61.8% and a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1721.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 31, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair continues to trade downwards from the levels of 0.6807/0.6840 (bearish channel). The pair has dropped from the level of 0.6807 to trade around the 0.6824 level. This level of 0.6807 coincides with the minor resistance today. Today, the first resistance levels are seen at 0.6807/0.8640 followed by 0.6880, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6742. Also, the level of 0.6775 represents a key price today for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.6807 towards the first support level at 0.6742 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.6742, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.6742. Then, resell again at the price of 0.6742 with the targets of 0.6716 and 0.6697. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.6840, then this scenario may be invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for July 31, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found that price is trading inside of the downward channel (consolidation), which is a sign that price may go lower to re-test support of channel before potential bullish continuation. My advice is to watch for a potential retracement from support of the channel before buying positions. If you see valid rejection of support (a lower diagonal of the channel), watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $8.445.

Support/Resistance

$8.445 – Intraday resistance

$7.762– Intraday support

$8.445 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of Gold for July 31, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,217.00. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a potential end of the upward correction (abc flat) in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found lower lows and lower highs, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $1,211.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,223.90

R2: $1,226.80

R3: $1,229.70

Support levels:

S1: $1,218.00

S2: $1,215.20

S3: $1,212.30

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for July 31, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3163. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I found testing of upper diagonal of the channel (resistance), which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a broken upward trendline in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3070 and at the price of 1.2960.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3160

R2: 1.3183

R3: 1.3215

Support levels:

S1: 1.3105

S2: 1.3075

S3: 1.3052

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 31, 2018

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USD/CHF Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

USDCHF is approaching support at 0.9858 (100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% & 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where we expect price to bounce up to its resistance at 0.9970 (61.8% & 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is testing its support 4.37% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

USD/CHF is approaching its support where a bounce is expected.

Buy above 0.9858. Stop loss at 0.9796. Take profit at 0.9970.

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AUD/NZD Bounced Off Support, Prepare For Further Rise!

AUDNZD bounced off its support at 1.0841 (61.8%, 100%, 100% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where it is expected to rise to its resistance at 1.0922 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance). Stochastic (89, 5, 3) bounced off its supporty at 4.4% where a corresponding rise is expected.

AUD/NZD bounced off its support where we expect to see a further rise.

Buy above 1.0841. Stop loss 1.0785. Take profit at 1.0922.

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#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for July 31, 2018

USD/CAD is currently quite indecisive and volatile above 1.30 psychological level from where the bullish pressure is expected to continue further for a while. Though USD has found support from the recent economic reports, it failed to sustain strength further against CAD.

Ahead of the NFP report this week which is expected to be quite mixed, despite the recent positive Pending Home Sales report, USD failed to gain momentum which indicates the strength and market sentiment on this pair. Today, US Core PCE Price Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.2%, Employment Cost Index is expected to decrease to 0.7% from the previous value of 0.8%, Personal Spending is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2%, Personal Income is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%, and Chicago PMI is expected to decrease to 61.9 from the previous figure of 64.1. Moreover, the most significant report of all, CB Consumer Confidence report is going to be published today as well which is expected to show a slight increase to 126.5 from the previous figure of 126.4.

On the other hand, today Canadian GDP report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1%, RMPI is expected to decrease to 2.7% from the previous value of 3.8%, and IPPI is also expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 1.0%.

Meanwhile, both currencies in the pair are quite indecisive ahead of economic reports. Before US nonfarm payrolls on Friday, certain volatility may strike the market, but USD is expected to have an upper hand over CAD in the long term.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the Kumo Cloud support as well as the psychological level support of 1.30 area from where the price is expected to push higher as per the trend structural formation and momentum it had. As for the current price formation, as the price remains above 1.30 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue with a target towards 1.34 in the future.

SUPPORT: 1.30

RESISTANCE: 1.34

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE AND CORRECTIVE

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for July 31, 2018

GBP/USD has been slightly bullish recently after retesting the 1.32 as resistance. The price is expected to trade with the bearish bias in the coming days. The pair is likely to trade with higher volatility ahead of the widely-expected rate hike by the Bank of England to 0.75% from the previous value of 0.50% along with BOE Outlook reports this Thursday.

Today, there is no macroeconomic report to support GBP gains, but a series of economic reports will be published on Thursday. The rate hike decision is viewed as the necessity by the Bank of England to keep the economy running and avoid the risk of turning into recession. Though GBP has been weighed down by lingering trade jitters and uncertainty in the Brexit talks, the rate hike on Thursday is expected to provide the definite momentum and set the near-term course for the pound sterling.

On the other hand, ahead of the NFP report this week which is expected to be quite mixed, despite the recent positive Pending Home Sales report, USD failed to gain momentum which indicates the market sentiment on GBP/USD. Today, US Core PCE Price Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.2%, Employment Cost Index is expected to decrease to 0.7% from the previous value of 0.8%, Personal Spending is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2%, Personal Income is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%, and Chicago PMI is expected to decrease to 61.9 from the previous figure of 64.1. Additionally, the most significant report of all, CB Consumer Confidence report is going to be published today as well which is expected to show a slight increase to 126.5 from the previous figure of 126.4.

At present, GBP has a lot to show this week amid the important policy decision like a rate hike which is not frequently taken by the British regulator. Since the recession of 2008-2009, this will be the 2nd Rate Hike for the UK so far which is expected to inject a good amount of volatility and trigger price swings this week. On the USD side, the forecasts are quite mixed and expected to put the market into indecision before the news is published. If the US manages to publish better than expected reports today, we might see further downward momentum in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently pushing higher to reach the 1.32 area for another retest before the price push lower as per long-term trend existing in the market since April 2018 rejecting off the 1.4375 area. Currently the price is expected to push lower with target towards 1.2950 area and as the price remains below 1.32 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 1.2950

RESISTANCE: 1.3200

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY For July 31, 2018

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On the 4 hour chart, GBP/JPY is now moving in an orderly manner at the downward sloping channel and below the 50-period moving average after testing the dynamic support. 50-period moving average will again try to test the nearest support at 145.42. As long as the price does not breakout and closes above the 146.51, GBP/JPY is set to move in a bearish bias.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis of USDX for July 31, 2018

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According to the 4-hour chart, the USD Index is now moving in a non-trend market. This situation is seen as the price is moving in the rectangular form (yellow box). Since the Moving Average is going into the body of the price bar, we know exactly this a non-trend condition, based on the previous rectangular pattern. I foresee a breakout from the rectangular pattern on August 16, 2018 (2 days are left before the end of the Mercury Retrograde phenomenon ends).

(Disclaimer)

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Trading plan for 31/07/2018

The dollar remains stable to other major currencies. The exception is AUD, which grows 0.3%, to 0.7430 and USD / JPY, which rises 0.2%, to 111.25. There are mixed moods on the stock market. Shanghai Composite gently reflects, by 0.2 %, while Hang Seng falls by almost 0.5%. Nikkei225 is still looking for direction.

Over the night, we have received data from the PMI index for the Chinese services and industrial sectors. Both readings were slightly below expectations. USD / CNY did not react to the publication.

The currency market without major changes. There is not much to say EUR / USD, which continues the side trend started at the end of June and is currently at 1.1710. The holiday peace that is visible on the currency market may be affected by the Wednesday decision of the US Fed, which will concern interest rates and Thursday's meetings of the Bank of England.

On Tuesday, the 31st of July, the event calendar is quite busy in important data releases. Beside the BoJ press conference, the global investors should keep an eye on Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate and Import Price Index data from Germany, CPI, Unemployment Rate and Revised GDP data from the Eurozone, the GDP data from Canada and Consumer Confidence, Personal Spending and PCE Core data from the US. No speeches are scheduled for today.

AUD/USD analysis for 31/07/2018:

AUD / USD increases by 0.3%, which results from the announcement of better-than-forecasted data on the growth dynamics of the number of building permits in monthly terms (6.40% vs. 1%) and annual 1.60% versus expected -6.0%.

Strong growth in new approvals and permits indicates a growing housing market. Because real estate generally leads economic developments - housing tends to thrive at the start of booms and wane at the onset of a recession. The figure can be used with others to forecast future growth in the economy as a whole. For this reason, Business Approvals is one of eight components used to construct the Conference Board Leading Index, a widely used index to forecast Australia's economic course. A strong housing market also tends to lead consumer spending.

Let's not take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market remains locked in a horizontal correction between the levels of 0.7359 - 0.7445 in neutral market conditions. After a better than expected data, the bulls might trigger a move towards the golden trend line resistance around the level of 0.7445 and only a sustained breakout above this level will open the road towards the local highs at 0.7483.

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Ethereum analysis for 31/07/2018

Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, said that payment cards powered by cryptocurrencies would contribute more to the adoption of virtual money on a large scale than the inflow of funds from institutions to ETFs, in the light of the last SEC decision. "I think there is too much emphasis on BTC, ETH or any ETFs, and too little pressure to make it easier for people to buy things from $ 5 to $ 100 through cards in small stores. This first option is good for pumping prices, but the latter option for actual adoption, "said Vitalik.

While the last proposal put forward by the Winklevoss brothers was rejected by the SEC again, there is another chance for a breakthrough in this matter. On August 10, the committee is to decide on the CBOE ETF. However, critics say that this factor will only increase Bitcoin's price in the short term.

On the other hand, such price jumps are more damaging for cryptocurrencies because they additionally confirm the impression that they have variable and speculative character. For traders, there would be a chance to pump the coins again towards higher levels, some see a BTC return of up to $ 25,000 after the ETF starts.

Let's now take a look at the Ethereum technical picture at the H4 time frame. Despite the recent breakout above the longer-term trend line, the bulls are too weak to rally higher and continue the uptrend. The price is now trading inside of a channel and did not manage to retrace event 38% of the previous swing down. The market conditions are starting to become oversold soon and the momentum is clearly weak and negative, with the indicator at the H4 time-frame pointing down. The next technical support is seen at the level of 436.40 and in a case of a breakout, the next support is seen at the level of 413.48. The nearest resistance is seen at the level of 481.44.

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Global macro overview for 31/07/2018

Today in the morning one of the most important events of the week occurred, namely the decision of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy. Market expectations were about keeping interest rates, but there were speculations about changes in the quantitative easing program and target for government bonds. At 03:00 am GMT traders got to know the decision of the Bank of Japan and economic forecasts. At 06:30 am GMT a press conference will be held with the president of BOJ - Haruhiko Kuroda.

The Bank of Japan maintained its short-term interest rate at -0.1% and will soon provide additional information on monetary policy. It is known that very low rates will stay longer than initially planned. Their level can move up and down, it all depends on economic performance and inflation. When planning changes in rates, higher taxes coming in next year will be taken into account.

The bond purchase is to be more flexible, now it is expected to increase to 80 trillion yen per year. The long-term goal for bond yields is still around 0%. Purchase of ETF and REIT will depend on market conditions. The Bank has decided to take steps to reduce provisions for which negative interest rates apply.

The measures taken by the Bank of Japan are aimed at accelerating the achievement of the inflation target in order to be achieved as quickly as possible while at the same time safeguarding financial and economic stability. The institution will look at the risks associated with its monetary policy, if necessary, the necessary changes will be made.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. SO far not much has happened as the traders await the BoJ press conference. The market remains locked in a horizontal consolidation between the levels of 110.57 - 111.52 in neutral market conditions, but with a slightly positive momentum. The key technical resistance is seen at the level of 112.04 - 112.17 and the key technical support is seen at the level of 110.34-110.26.

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Bitcoin analysis for 31/07/2018

Currently, a wave of different opinions passes through the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Fund managers and institutional investors are once again talking about what they think will happen to Bitcoin, altcoins and the entire Blockchain ecosystem.

In an interview with Bloomberg, the founder and CIO of Miller Value Partners, Bill Miller, positively assessed Bitcoin, describing it as an interesting technological experiment. He also believes that most other cryptocurrencies are worthless.

At present, Bitcoin is worth over $ 8,000. This is a factor that Miller assesses as important for stability and belief in this cryptocurrency. According to him, in comparison to the past, when the cryptocurrency could be bought for about $ 100, panic in the industry today is less: "Every day, when [Bitcoin] will not break out, it will not go down to zero, it will not be sunk into regulations, more money will flow into the ecosystem "- Miller said.

Bearing in mind that there are currently over 1,600 cryptocurrencies, Miller believes that many of them are virtually worthless. He confirms that Bitcoin is the most valuable of all, and Ethereum is in second place.

Miller also notes that at the moment the best way to think about Bitcoins is that they are unrelated assets, the most similar to gold. It also indicates the potential of Bitcoin, such as the possibility of transforming itself into a payment system, real currency and the likelihood that central banks around the world will recognize it as another potential capital. These are factors that in his opinion will open up the market to a large extent.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The global investors might be witnessing a born of a triangle pattern, which a typical corrective structure for wave 4. The price hovers around the weekly pivot at the level of $8,012 with a low at the level of $7,752 and the swing high at the level of $8,445. When the wave 4 correction is completed, another wave up is being expected. The projected target for this wave is at the level of $8,555.

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 31, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Unemployment Rate, Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Prelim Flash GDP q/q, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, German Unemployment Change, Spanish Flash GDP q/q, French Prelim CPI m/m, and German Retail Sales m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too such as CB Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Employment Cost Index q/q, and Core PCE Price Index m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1765.

Strong Resistance:1.1758.

Original Resistance: 1.1757.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1736.

Target Inner Area: 1.1708.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1680.

Original Support: 1.1669.

Strong Support: 1.1658.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1651.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, July 31, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the Housing Starts y/y, Consumer Confidence, Monetary Policy Statement, BOJ Policy Rate, BOJ Outlook Report, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, and Unemployment Rate. The US will also release some Economic Data such as CB Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Employment Cost Index q/q, and Core PCE Price Index m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.59.

Resistance. 2: 111.37.

Resistance. 1: 111.15.

Support. 1: 110.91.

Support. 2: 110.68.

Support. 3: 110.45.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for July 30. The pair is preparing to leave the boundary

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the Friday trading session of the EUR/USD pair gained about 40 bp from the low of the day and still remains within the narrowing corridor. As before, wave 4 is considered complete. If that is the case, the decline in quotations will continue within the first wave in the future of the 5th. Confirmation of the implementation of this option can be considered a successful attempt to break the lower forming a narrow corridor of the line. A breakthrough of the upper corridor line will entail changes in the current wave counting.

Goals for sales:

1.1507 - 100.0% - according to Fibonacci

1.1444 - 127.2% Fibonacci retracement

Goals for shopping:

1.1834 - 200.0% by Fibonacci

1.1957 - 161.8% Fibonacci retracement

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The 4th wave correction is still characterized as fully completed. Thus, it is recommended for the pair to continue selling for a downward wave 5 with first targets located near the 1.1507 and 1.1444 levels, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci. To buy the pair, it is recommended to return only after breaking the upper line of the corridor and after specifying the entire wave counting. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The foreign exchange market will continue to be consolidated

The US dollar continues to balance against major currencies in the wake of a high degree of uncertainty, which happened because of Donald Trump's actions as one of the reasons while struggling to maintain the US economic and political domination in the world to a greater extent, economic reasoning. On the other hand, the world Central Bank changes actively their views on monetary policies.

The American president and his course on the actual physical breakdown of the current economic and political ties that have developed, at least over the past fifty years, continue to exert the strongest influence on the world financial markets. This disorientates investors, not allowing them to fully act actively. Observing this state of affairs, we believe that the overall lateral dynamics of currency pairs in the Forex market, where the US dollar is present, will continue.

Important supporting factors include the expectation of the continuation of the increase in interest rates and its function as a safe haven against the backdrop of the uncertainty that prevails in the markets. In addition, the protectionism policy of Trump, in relation to the national commodity producer, will stimulate inflation. And in turn, this will force the Fed to maintain its policy of raising interest rates, which will be positive for the dollar.

There will be meetings of British and Japanese central banks on monetary policy this week. The Central Bank of Japan does not expect anything new, and it will most likely remain as markets "not seen." But the outcome of the meeting of the Bank of England is encouraging. It is expected that the meeting will result in an increase in the key interest rate by 0.25%, from 0.50% to 0.75%.

How can the market react to this news? In our opinion, this probability is already taken into account in quotes. Here, the regulator's plan will be more important to further raise rates or not. If in the final declaration, there are no hints of this, and M. Carney, the ECB governor, will also be stingy for such statements, the sterling is likely to be under pressure against the US dollar again. Therefore, we adhere to a trading plan, the meaning of which is to buy the dollar at its local declines, not only to the British currency but to all major currencies.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading above the level of 1.1650. It can resume the decline to 1.1585 while remaining within in the range if it overcomes the mark of 1.1650.

The GBP/USD pair is trading above the level of 1.3085 due to pending outcome of the Bank of England meeting to be held this Thursday. We assume that until this moment, the pair will consolidate, but if it overcomes the mark of 1.3085, then there is a probability of its fall to 1.3000.

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The pound will receive a hint from the Central Bank

In the center of investors' attention, central banks will be in place by August 3. Following the ECB, which intends to keep rates at current levels, at least until September 2019, regulators from Japan, the United States, and Britain will have their say. The BoJ, after several months of hibernation, is ready to make adjustments to the strategy of managing the yield curve (at least, rumors circulate on the market and move rates on bonds around the world). The Fed needs to come up with something in response to the criticism of its activities by Donald Trump. However, the most interesting is the meeting of the Committee for Monetary Policy BoE.

Currently, every eighth out of ten experts Bloomberg expects that in early August, the Bank of England will raise the repo rate from 0.5% to 0.75%. The futures market estimates the chances of such an outcome to be almost 90%. If in fact this does not happen, we expect large-scale sales of the GBP / USD pair. Otherwise, the future of the pair will depend on the hints of the Central Bank on the continuation of the cycle of normalization of monetary policy.

Money restriction is a powerful growth driver for any currency. However, the GBP / USD pair has been trading in the range of 1.3-1.34 for the past few weeks. The reason for this is a strong dollar and political risks. The US currency strengthened in April-July against competitors from the G10 because of the faith of investors in the bright future of the US economy. A large fiscal stimulus drove it to 4.1% in the second quarter, which is the best indicator since 2014. Will this figure become a lone peak or will the US continue in the same spirit? The answer to this question will determine the fate of dollar pairs in Forex.

The pressure on sterling creates confusion in the government and Brussels' reluctance to accept the drafts of the divorce presented by Theresa May within the framework of Brexit. Despite the fact that both sides have declared their desire to reach an agreement by the middle of autumn, it is still there. This circumstance has lowered the risks of the pound's reversal to the minimum since the referendum on Britain's membership in the EU. Simply put, investors are more likely to buy insurance against the fall of GBP than hedge the risks of the growth of the currency of the United Kingdom.

Dynamics of pound reversal risks

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Concerning the forthcoming meeting of the Bank of England, investors are most concerned with two questions: how many MPC members will vote against raising the REPO rate, and what level of neutral interest rate does BoE see? According to Bloomberg, it should be at 1.5-1.75%. If the Central Bank sees the figure higher, it will follow the path of active normalization of monetary policy, which will support the bulls in the GBP / USD. On the contrary, a low indicator value will mean that for three years, the regulator will remain committed to slow normalization. So, the urgent market gives only a 40% chance that the repo rate will be raised after August by another 25 points within three years.

Technically, to activate the "Wolfe Wave" pattern, the "bulls" for GBP / USD should be storming the resistance at 1.32 and 1.329. On the contrary, the update of the July low will open the way for the "bears" to the south in the direction of 1.28 and 1.262.

GBP / USD, daily chart

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Weekly review of the foreign exchange market from July 30, 2018

The dollar resumed its growth, and most clearly this was seen in the example of the single European currency. As for the single European currency, once again everything revolved around the customs policy of Donald Trump. At the very beginning of the week, a meeting was held between Donald Trump and Jean-Claude Juncker, after which the euro was able to improve its position by pulling a pound along with it. This meeting was preceded by another statement of the US President with the proposal of mutual abolition of customs duties, barriers and subsidies. Donald Trump also added that customs duties are good, because after their introduction, everyone is ready to sit down at the negotiating table, and on his terms. The very proposal of the owner of the jump on the mutual abolition of customs duties, barriers and subsidies is disadvantageous for Europe. They are ready to cancel duties at least now, but everything else has long been used by the eurozone to protect their own market from foreign producers and, to be honest, seriously contradicts the declared principles of free trade. So the proposal is clearly disadvantageous for Europe. As soon as the meeting ended, the media reported that Donald Trump and Jean-Claude Juncker had reached an agreement. But the details became known only after the ECB meeting on monetary policy. As it turned out, the United States and Europe have agreed not to introduce new customs duties and to negotiate the settlement of the trade issue. In other words, nothing new has happened, as negotiations on this issue have not stopped since Donald Trump first announced his intention to introduce duties on certain goods. And such wording as "yet", does not give any guarantees that tomorrow the US will not impose new duties.

Given that the details of the meeting of Donald Trump and Jean-Claude Juncker became known after the meeting of the ECB's meeting on the monetary policy, all attention was focused on the press conference of the head of the ECB. He obviously had to already know what exactly the meeting between the US President and the head of the European Commission ended. It is worth recalling that earlier the ECB explained its endless extension of the program of quantitative easing, low rates of economic growth and inflation. But after the previous meeting, following the results of which the quantitative easing program was extended for the third time, Mario Draghi did not say anything about inflation or economic growth rates. Then he referred to the risks caused by the trade war. Once Donald Trump and Jean-Claude Juncker came to an agreement, the rhetoric of the ECB head had to change. However, Mario Draghi again said nothing about inflation and GDP growth rates, and only noted that the risks caused by the trade war, somewhat decreased. From the head of the ECB waited for statements that under no circumstances the operation of the quantitative easing program will not be prolonged, but his words rather indicate the opposite.

If we forget about the geopolitics and fears of central banks and look at the statistics, we will see that the American economy is feeling well. The economic growth rate, albeit according to preliminary estimates, accelerated from 2.6% to 2.8%, which is the best result in the last few years. Also, the volume of orders for durable goods increased by 1.0%. But to be honest, that's where the good news from the US ends. Thus, the sale of housing in the secondary market fell by 0.6%, and in the primary market they fell by 5.3%. Also, the total number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 1 thousand.

If you look at the eurozone, in continental Europe there was no reason for the growth or decline of the single European currency, as the growth rate of consumer lending remained unchanged. There were no other significant data in Europe. But the pound had a reason for joy, which explains its much greater stability compared to other currencies. The fact is that the number of approved mortgage applications has increased from 39,528 to 40,541. This is quite significant, given the huge importance of the real estate market to determine the investment attractiveness of the UK.

This week will be marked by the publication of the report of the US Department of Labor, but it will happen at the very end. And before that, we are waiting for a lot of interesting things. We can say that the most boring event will be the meeting of the Federal Commission for open market operations, as it is clear that the refinancing rate will not increase now, as it is planned for the end of the year. Representatives of the Fed have already assured everyone that they do not intend to abandon their plans. Data on personal income and expenditure will also not make any difference, as both income and expenditure should grow by 0.4%. Their comparable growth has no effect on the market. But the sale of vehicles may be reduced from 17.5 million to 17.3 million, which will have a negative impact on the dollar. And, according to ADP, employment could grow by 175 thousand, which is less than 177 thousand in the previous period. The total number of applications for unemployment benefits should be reduced by 4 thousand.as for the report of the US Department of labor, it is expected to see a reduction in the unemployment rate from 4.0% to 3.9%. The growth rate of average hourly wages should remain unchanged, but 195 thousand new jobs can be created outside agriculture, which is slightly less than 213 thousand a month earlier. However, even such a number of new jobs completely satisfies all market needs, and the unemployment rate itself should decrease, so the expectations are quite optimistic.

Frankly speaking, there is practically nothing to answer Europe. Of course, the unemployment rate should fall, but from 8.4% to 8.3%, which against the background of the US unemployment rate looks just awful. Of course, the rate of growth of producer prices can accelerate from 3.0% to 3.5%, but if we consider that the inflation itself should remain unchanged, then it can impress few people. Worst of all, with stable inflation, retail sales growth is expected to slow from 1.4% to 1.3%. Also, preliminary data on GDP should show a slowdown in economic growth from 2.5% to 2.2%. In other words, everything points to the decline of the single European currency, and it should finish the week at the level of 1,1600. However, the Bank of England may intervene, and if it succeeds, the pound will pull the single European currency, which will grow to 1,1750.

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The fact is that in the UK there will be a meeting of the Bank of England's policy board on monetary policy, and now it is predicted that the refinancing rate will increase from 0.5% to 0.75%. If this happens, it can be compared with the explosion of an atomic bomb. However, such forecasts look extremely doubtful, since almost all representatives of the Bank of England not only stated that the increase in the refinancing rate is still untimely, but also hinted at the possibility of resuming the program of quantitative easing. It is unlikely that the members of the Board of the Bank of England in less than a month have radically changed their views. It should be noted that the data on the lending market has already been released, and the volume of consumer lending remained almost unchanged, and the number of approved applications for mortgages increased from 64 684 to 65 619. But the Bank of England is guided not only by this data. More precisely, they are not so important for him. Nevertheless, the Bank of England is able to surprise, and if the refinancing rate is increased, the pound will rise to 1.3200. Otherwise, he will complete the week at 1.3050.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 31, 2018

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There is nothing new to add here. We need a break above resistance at 1.7205 to confirm a corrective low is in place for a rally towards 1.7305 on the way higher towards 1.7510 and 1.7970.

Support remains seen near 1.7116 and will ideally continue to protect the downside for the expected break above 1.7205. If, however, support at 1.7116 is broken that will indicate that black wave ii/ still is in motion and extend the corrective decline closer to 1.7066 before turning higher.

R3: 1.7268

R2: 1.7207

R1: 1.7163

Pivot: 1.7137

S1: 1.7116

S2: 1.71067

S3: 1.7033

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7226 with our stop placed at 1.7110. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above resistance at 1.7205 and use the same stop at 1.7110.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 31, 2018

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EUR/JPY found support near the 61.8% corrective target at 128.98 (the low was seen at 129.09). The following break above the channel resistance-line indicates that red wave ii has completed and red wave iii now is developing. To confirm this is the case, we still need a clear break above resistance at 130.44. A clear break above here will call for a rally towards 135.74.

Support is now seen at 129.84 and again at 129.43. Ideally the later will protect the downside for a test and break above resistance at 130.44.

R3: 130.74

R2: 130.44

R1: 130.10

Pivot: 129.84

S1: 129.43

S2: 129.09

S3: 128.55

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 129.55 or upon a break above 130.28.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 30/07/2018

The global investors are now focusing their attention on the Bank of Japan meeting, which will be finalized tonight. BoJ might keep monetary policy parameters unchanged, although in recent days there has been a discussion that important modifications are being prepared. One of the ideas is to reduce investment in ETFs based on the Nikkei225 index, as the central bank's activity began to have an exaggerated impact on the companies belonging to the index. In return, BoJ is expected to increase purchases within the broader Topix index, but the program's volume is to remain the same. Such a "correction" barely changes the perception of the policy and should be neutral for the currency market. However, speculations also concern the change of the target for the Treasury bonds purchase strategy. Currently, BoJ is committed to maintaining the profitability of 10-year bonds close to 0 percent. (in practice, it is 0.1 percent), but press leakages have recently been talking about shifting the target to 5-year notes. However, we believe that such a change will be detrimental to achieving the inflation target of 2% in the medium term. The target, which is moving away, because the BoJ will probably lower tomorrow's inflation forecasts (according to press reports - up to 1.5 percent). Policy adjustments to changing market conditions (pressure to increase profitability abroad, an exhausting pool of available assets) in the future await the BoJ (even in the autumn), but grabbing for surprises during the holiday liquidity fall would be irresponsible.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. From the GBP / JPY perspective, unexpected policy adjustments may temporarily strengthen the yen, but the move will be reversed quickly when the market understands that this is only a temporary solution without successive plans, and the policy remains ultra-ease. The last upswing on this pair was almost completely retraced as the level of 61% Fibo at the level of 145.86 was violated. The pair has found a temporary low at the level of 145.24, just above the 76% Fibo retracement. The key level to the upside is seen at 146.51 and unless this level of violated the market might be drifting aimlessly until BoJ decision.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 30/07/2018

Google joined Apple, banning the app to extract cryptocurrencies from its mobile app store. According to the Android Police report, the Internet giant has revealed a change in its position in the latest policy update for Google Play developers.

The company's latest policy states: "We do not allow applications that copy cryptocurrencies on devices. We allow applications that remotely manage the extraction of cryptocurrencies". These limitations have arisen at a time when Google and Apple have jointly strengthened efforts to reduce the activity associated with extracting cryptocurrencies on their platforms. In April, Google blocked extensions to the Google Chrome browser to extract cryptocurrencies after the company discovered that the vast majority of them did not meet the company's policies or were malware. Last month Apple updated the rules for mobile applications for iOS developers to prevent the use of applications that can be used to extract cryptocurrencies on mobile devices.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market remains locked in a horizontal consolidation between the levels of $8,275 - $7,754, despite the fact, that the intraday trend line has been violated. The top remains at the level of $8,439 as there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator. From the Elliott Wave Theory point of view, the current cycle is a wave 4 correction that might last a while. Please keep an eye at the level of $7,655.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 30/07/2018

The weekend did not offer any new data that could set the sentiment of the global investors and drag the non-directional trade from the previous week. A key publication in the form of GDP from the US proved to be difficult to figure out. On the one hand, the dynamics of 4.1% was the first since 2014 reading above 4.0% and is the best proof of how the foundations protect the dollar. Final real sales (or domestic demand) amounted to 5.1%, the highest since the crisis. The Americans use the resources saved by the tax reform, and although such pace is unsustainable in the long run, it now supports the Fed's striving for further interest rate increases. Nonetheless, pessimists will get stuck that the GDP growth was still by 0.1 percentage point. worse than consensus forecasts, so not everything played as analysts hoped for. In addition, the quarterly PCE Core Inflation indicator weakened to 2.0%. from 2.2 percent, although it must be remembered that the members of the Fed did not announce any victory in the fight against low inflationary pressure, so these data will not change their current strategy.

However, in general terms, the USD did not get a strong impulse to strengthen or weaken, so the rest of the currency market remained in limited volatility conditions and these directly fluctuations continue into the new trading week.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CHF technical picture at the H4 time frame. The current range zone is located between the levels of 0.9900 - 0.9978, so it is just below the psychological level of 1.0000. Moreover, there is an important trend line, that will act as a support for the price around the level of 0.9910 as well. The recent Doji candlestick formation indicates, that the bear camp is still in control over this market, so the short-term outlook remains bearish.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com