BITCOIN Analysis for October 12, 2018

Bitcoin is still correcting below $6,500 amid certain bullish pressure, trying the push the price higher in the process. The price is being held by dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line as support. The Chikou Span is already closing above the Price line which indicates certain bullish pressure in the short term. Though the bulls are currently trying to assert their strength, a break above the Kumo Cloud resistance is very important for a further rise towards $6,500. A daily close above $6,500 is expected to generate more bullish pressure for the future. As the price remains above $6,000 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue for Bitcoin in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 6000

RESISTANCE: 6500, 7500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for October 12, 2018

EUR/AUD has been quite bearish and volatile after rejecting off the 1.6350 area with a daily close recently. Despite upbeat economic reports from the eurozone, the EUR struggle indicates its waning strength over AUD that is expected to lead to further bearish pressure.

The stability risks emerging for the eurozone in the coming days has already affected EUR's growth against AUD which may lead to further weakness. This week EUR found solid support from the recent economic reports which helped the currency to gain impulsive momentum over AUD recently. Today German Final CPI report was published unchanged as expected at 0.4% and Industrial Production was better than expected at 1.0%, increasing from the previous value of -0.7% which was expected to be at 0.4%.

On the other hand, Australia released positive economic reports this trading week which helped the currency to gain momentum. Despite downbeat data today, momentum sustained well enough. Today Australia's Home Loans report was published with a decrease to -2.1% from the previous value of 0.0% which was expected to be at -0.9%. Additionally, RBA Financial Stability Review was a bit sluggish but helped the aussie to gain momentum against EUR.

Meanwhile, EUR's struggle to gain momentum over AUD despite positive economic data published recently indicates severe weakness of EUR in comparison to AUD in the pair. As Australia comes up with better economic data in the coming days, further bearish pressure is expected in the future which might also result in strong counter-move as well.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite impulsive with the bearish pressure while also residing at the edge of dynamic level of 20 EMA. The price has recently developed a Bearish Divergence in the process which indicates further bearish momentum in the pair. As the price remains below 1.6350 area with a daily close, it is expected to push lower towards the support area between 1.5900-1.6050 area in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 1.5900, 1.6050

RESISTANCE: 1.6350

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for October 12, 2018

EUR/GBP has been quite impulsive and non-volatile amid the recent bearish bias which led the price to reside below 0.8850 with a daily close. GBP has been dominating EUR for a certain period which came to a strong counter after the worse reports of GBP started to unfold this week.

This week UK GDP report was published with a decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.4% which was expected to be at 0.1%, Manufacturing Production decreased to -0.2% from the previous value of 0.0% which was expected to increase to 0.1% and Construction Output decreased significantly to -0.7% from the previous positive value of 0.5% which was expected to be at -0.4%. Moreover, Bank of England's Governor Carney had a speech recently, expanding on further economic development and tackling the BREXIT situation in the coming days. The speech aroused mixed responses from the market. Mostly it is expected to have a positive influence on the GBP dynamic.

On the EUR side, there are certain stability risks, emerging for the eurozone in the coming days, which should be taken seriously to take proper steps to overcome them in the right time. Amid the recent downbeat reports from the UK, EUR is expected to gain momentum for a short to medium-term period. This week EUR has been quite impressive thanks to the recent economic reports which helped the currency to gain impulsive momentum over GBP. Today German Final CPI report was published unchanged as expected at 0.4% and Industrial Production was better-than-expected at 1.0%, increasing from the previous value of -0.7% which was expected to be at 0.4%.

Meanwhile, EUR is expected to gain certain momentum over GBP in the coming days. On the other hand, GBP may take the lead again to push the price lower in the long term as fundamentals suggest.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has formed a Bullish Divergence recently which is expected to lead the price towards 0.8850 before it continues with the bearish trend after rejecting off the area with a daily close. As the dynamic level of 20 EMA is also quite far from the current market price, a retracement is more probable. However, as the price remains below 0.8950 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.8500, 0.8700

RESISTANCE: 0.8850, 0.8950

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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AUD/USD analysis for October 12, 2018

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Recently, the AUD/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 0.7133. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a breakout of the intraday ascending triangle in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward take profit level is set at the price of 0.7183 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%).

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Analysis of Gold for October 12, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading upwards with the strong momentum. The price tested the level of $1,225.90. According to the H1 time – frame, I found the breakout of the 30-day bullish flag (bullish pattern) in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found the end of the downward correction (regular flat), which is a strong sign of strength. Most recently, I have found a breakout of the intraday bullish flag, which is a good sign to establish long positions. The upward take profit levels are set at the price of $1,233.85 and at the price of $1,266.00.

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Bitcoin analysis for October 12, 2018

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Attachments area

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for October 12, 2018

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On September 13, the depicted daily downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090 failed to offer enough bearish pressure on the pair. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout so far.

On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish within the depicted H4 bearish channel to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

Recently, the price level of 1.2900-1.2940 (the backside of the broken uptrend) demonstrated significant bullish recovery which led to the recent bullish breakout of the depicted H4 channel.

Evident Bullish momentum was demonstrated above 1.3010 and recently above 1.3090 (61.8% Fibo level) which led to the current bullish movement above 1.3200.

As for the bullish breakout scenario to remain valid, bullish persistence above 1.3200 (KEY-LEVEL) is needed to maintain sufficient bullish momentum initially towards 1.3280.

Any bearish breakdown below 1.3200 invalidates the bullish breakout scenario allowing a further decline towards 1.3090 (61.8% Fibo level) and probably 1.3010 (50% Fibonacci level).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 12, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress (recent bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

On September 10, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750). However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, evident bearish momentum was being demonstrated on the daily chart. On October 10, recent bearish decline below 1.1520 (the lower limit of the consolidation range) found its way towards the price level of 1.1420.

As for the bearish side of the market to remain dominant, the EUR/USD pair should keep trading below the price level of 1.1520.

However, This week, evident signs of bullish recovery were demonstrated around 1.1430 (Note the full-bullish candlestick of Yesterday). This brings the EUR/USD pair again above 1.1520.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair resumes its sideway consolidations inside the depicted consolidation range (1.1520-1.1750) until a bearish breakout occurs later.

The nearest supply level is located around 1.1670 (a potential bullish target).

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 12, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9875. The pair rose from the level of 0.9875 to a top around 0.9865. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9865 followed by 0.9922, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9743 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9875 and 0.9999; so we expect a range of 124 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.9865, we should see the pair climbing towards the second resistance (0.9922) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.9865 with the first target at 0.9922 in order to test the daily resistance 2 and further to 0.9963. Besides, it might be noted that the level of 0.9963 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9875, a further decline to 0.9743 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for October 12, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3170. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.3170, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.3055, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend.

According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to trade between 1.3170 and 1.3297. So, the support stands at 1.3170, while daily resistance is found at 1.3297. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3170. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.3170 with the first target at the level of 1.3297; and continue towards 1.3432. However, if the GBP/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3170 today, the market will decline further to 1.3055.

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Technical analysis of Gold for October 12, 2018

Gold price finally broke out above the trading range its been in for at least a month. This breakout is a bullish sign and we could see prices move higher towards $1,240-60 over the coming weeks.

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Red lines - trading range (broken)

Green lines - long-term bearish channel

Gold price has broken above the trading range. Support is now at previous resistance at $1,211. Next support is at $1,184. We could see a pull back towards $1,215-13 but the upside should continue next week. Our first target of $1,220 has been reached. Holding above $1,210 could ope the way for our next target at $1,240-50. Resistance is at yesterday's highs. Breaking this resistance level will increase the chances of reaching our second target area.

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Technical analysis: Intraday levels for EUR/USD, Oct 12, 2018

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Industrial Production m/m and German Final CPI m/m. The US will release a batch of economic reports too such as Federal Budget Balance, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Import Prices m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1645

Strong Resistance: 1.1638

Original Resistance: 1.1627

Inner Sell Area: 1.1616

Target Inner Area: 1.1589

Inner Buy Area: 1.1562

Original Support: 1.1551

Strong Support: 1.1540

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1533

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 12, 2018

EUR/USD has rallied above 1.16 and is now trading right below it. Price has reversed to the upside just above our target area of 1.1420-1.14. Price has so far surpassed the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the decline. A pullback towards 1.1550 is probable before more upside at least towards 1.1670.

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Short-term support is at 1.1550-1.1530. Resistance is at 1.1630 and next at 1.1670. Short-term trend is bullish. Price has made an important low at 1.1432. Breaking below this level is unlikely but if it happens we should expect prices to fall below 1.14 towards 1.13. Breaking above the 1.1670 resistance will open the way for a move above 1.18.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 12/10/2018

On Friday, the 12th of October, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the market participants should pay attention to German CPI data, Eurozone Industrial Production data and US UoM Consumer Sentiment data. There are two spechees scheduled for today from FOMC Member Charles Evans and FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic.

EUR/USD analysis for 12/10/2018:

The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Germany, where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical German household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to break through the technical resistance at the level of 1.1543 and the pice has made a local high at the level of 1.1610. Nevertheless, the current market conditions are now overbought at this time frame and the market might reverse and continue the downtrend ay time soon. The technical support is seen at the level of 1.1543 - 1.1550 and then at the level of 1.1515 and 1.1503. The key support is seen at the level of 1.1432.

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Global macro overview for 12/10/2018

During a short speech for journalists, Donald Trump said: "They are very restrictive. I think the Fed is crazy. " It might seem to be a slip, because lowering the trust in the central bank by the executive can have negative consequences in the future. In addition, the Federal Reserve does not behave erratically. Nevertheless, in the following hours it turned out that it was not a slip, because, in a telephone interview for Fox Business television, Donald Trump said: "The Fed is crazy. They raise interest rates and this is absurd. " At the suggestion that the declines may be related to the trade war, the US president replied, "This is not a problem. The problem is, in my opinion, the Fed. The Fed is crazy. "

The president publicly criticizes the central bank - led by President Powell, whom he appointed - for interest rate hikes and admitted that he was "not happy" in September, after the third rate hike. Trump, therefore, seems to represent a completely different view of the Federal Reserve than its predecessors. For more than two decades, the presidents avoided public comments on the Fed's interest rate policy as a way of showing respect for the independence of the institution.

Powell's goal is to prolong the second longest economic expansion in the US by raising interest rates fast enough to prevent overheating, but not so fast that the central bank stifles growth. Powell said last week that he expects to maintain the current path of gradual interest rate hikes while monitoring the risk in the economy. One of the reasons why the Fed raises interest rates even with small signs of inflation collapse is that the unemployment rate, which fell to 3.7% in September, is at a level that many officials expect to accelerate wage growth over time and prices.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has retraced 50% of the previous swing high and currently is trading around the level of 94.98 in oversold conditions. The momentum is still below its fifty level, so the price is still trading below the black trend line. In a case of a breakout, the next target for bulls is located at the level of 95.18 and then at 95.32. The bias is to the downside as long as the level of 95.71 is violated.

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Global macro overview for 12/10/2018

The RBA has published the latest report on the financial stability of the country. In general, it can be said that the central bank is not afraid of internal conditions, but more about the impact of global events on the economy. The country is developing at a good pace, although there has been a slowdown in the real estate market, where the sentiment has become more cautious. The current fall in house prices is small in relation to the scale of previous increases. A sharp or strong drop in prices could jeopardize the country's financial system and household finances. The level of household debt is high, but it does not seem to be a high risk at the moment. It will only happen if consumption is reduced. Too soon tightening monetary policy (which is unlikely to happen) could damage the real estate market even more.

The risk to global financial stability has increased for several reasons. The biggest one is the commercial tension between the two largest economies in the world. If there is an economic slowdown in China, it could lead to a global recession.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pair did not react properly to the publication of the report and the overall volatility did not increase much. The market is still trading below the technical resistance at the level of 0.7129, but in case of a break out higher, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 0.7141. The is a clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator, so a pullback towards the level of 0.7100 is possible. The larger time frame trend remains bearish.

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Bitcoin analysis for 12/10/2018

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) asks for comments on nine different proposals for changes to the ETF bitcoin rules, which are currently under review after they were initially rejected. The SEC has previously rejected the proposals - submitted by ProShares, GraniteShares and Direxion and NYSE Arca or Cboe market suppliers - while also highlighting the problems with underlying bitcoin futures and the risk that the Bitcoin market is vulnerable to manipulation. The day after the rejection of nine applications, the agency ruled that its management would review these decisions.

In newly published documents, the SEC asked for public comment on all nine applications and set October 26 as the date to which the public can submit all comments:"In addition, it is prescribed that the order to reject the proposed [proposed rule changes] will remain in force until the Commission's review" - the assistant secretary Eduardo Aleman wrote.

The SEC is also considering separately the Bitcoin ETF proposed by the crypto startup SolidX and the VanEck company dealing with money management. The decision on these proposals could already be made in December.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the level of $6,027 and made a local high at the level of $6,190. The bounce is quite shallow, so there is still a chance for the market to continue the downtrend. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $6,289 and then at the level of $6,358. The market conditions are oversold, but the momentum remains weak as it is still below the fifty level. Higher time frame trend is still down.

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Technical analysis: Intraday levels for USD/JPY, Oct 12, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the Tertiary Industry Activity m/m and M2 Money Stock y/y. The US will provide a batch of economic reports such as Federal Budget Balance, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Import Prices m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3: 112.82

Resistance 2: 112.60

Resistance 1: 112.38

Support 1: 112.11

Support 2: 111.88

Support 3: 111.56

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 12, 2018

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It's still unclear whether blue wave ii completed with the test of 1.7719 and blue wave iii higher to 1.8030 and 1.8369 is developing. Or a more complex correction is developing in blue wave ii.

The minor rally from 1.7719 to 1.7882 does look impulsive, it was just a bit shorter than we normally would expect. On the other hand, this is also the reason, why we are concerned as all options remain wide open.

A break above resistance at 1.7851 will favor the bullish view, while a break below 1.7734 will favor the a more complex correction unfolding.

R3: 1.8030

R2: 1.7960

R1: 1.7929

Pivot: 1.7851

S1: 1.7792

S2: 1.7774

S3: 1.7734

Trading recommendation:

We will buy a break above resistance at 1.7851 and place our stop at 1.7715

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 12, 2018

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All we need is a break above minor resistance at 130.50 to confirm that blue wave (2) has completed and blue wave (3) has taken over for a rally towards 138.10.

Short-term, we see support at 130.15 and the at 129.84. The later will ideally protect the downside, but only an unexpected break below support at 129.21 will keep the correction in blue wave (2) alive, but the potential downside should be very limited from here.

R3: 131.45

R2: 130.88

R1: 130.50

Pivot: 130.15

S1: 129.84

S2: 129.39

S3: 129.21

Trading recommendation:

We will buy a break above 130.50 and place our stop at 129.10.

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the American session on October 11. Speech by Mark Carney supported the pound

To open long positions on GBP/USD pair, you need:

Buyers managed to stay above the support level of 1.3184, which I mentioned in the morning review, and the comments of the Governor of the Bank of England allowed traders to increase their long positions. The main task for the second half of the day is to break through and consolidate above resistance 1.3220, which will lead to the formation of a new upward movement in the pound with a maximum of 1.3269, where taking profits are recommended. In the case of a decline in GBP / USD in the afternoon, long positions can return immediately to the rebound from the support of 1.3147.

To open short positions on GBP / USD pair, you need:

Sellers will try to keep the pair below the resistance of 1.3220 and the formation of a false breakdown on it will lead to a larger downward trend with repeated support test of 1.3184. A break of 1.3184 will allow us to expect an increase in short positions in the GBP / USD pair by updating the lows in the area of 1.3147 and 1.3098, where taking profits are recommended. In the case of the pound rising above the resistance of 1.3220 in the second half of the day, it is best to return in short positions on a rebound from a high of 1.3269.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

The price is above the 30-day and 50-day moving average, which indicates continuous growth of the pound.

Bollinger bands

The upside potential is limited by the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3236. The breakthrough of which will lead to a new wave of pound growth.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on October 11. ECB protocols can help the euro to get to the weekly highs

To open long positions on EUR/USD pair, you need:

Buyers managed to form a false breakdown at the level of 1.1541 considering yesterday events, which I paid attention to in my morning review and in turn, kept the upward potential in euros. The main task for the second half of the day will be updating of resistance 1.1588 and fixing on it that will lead to a larger upward impulse for the euro with a test of highs 1.1636 and 1.1683, where taking profits are recommended. In the case of a decline below the support level of 1.1541, long positions can only return to rebound from the 1.1483 level after the publication of the minutes from the last meeting of the European Central Bank.

To open short positions on EUR/USD pair, you need:

It is best to rely on short positions in the euro come afternoon after the update of resistance 1.1588 with the formation of a false breakdown there. The main task remains the reduction and consolidation below the support level of 1.1541, which will be a clear signal to open new short positions in the euro with an update of the minimum level at 1.1483, where taking profits are recommended. In case of growth above 1.1588, you can sell the EUR / USD pair immediately to rebound from a maximum of 1.1636.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

The price is above the 30 and 50 average, indicating a continuation of the upward trend.

Bollinger bands

The upside potential is limited by the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator. Its breakthrough will lead to a new wave of growth in the euro.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Wave analysis of EUR / USD pair for October 11. Growth within wave b is expected.

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Wave counting analysis:

In the course of Wednesday trading, the EUR/USD pair rose by 30 bp, thus, this confirms the transition to the construction of an upward wave b in the framework of the supposedly 3-wave downward structure. If this is true, then the increase in quotations will continue with targets located near the estimated marks of 100.0% and 76.4% Fibonacci. After the completion of b-wave construction, the reduction of quotations within wave c is expected to continue. However, wave b can absolutely turn out any in terms of size, since much will depend on the background news now. Today, there will be a report on inflation in the United States.

Sales targets:

1.1446 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1361 - 200.0% Fibonacci

Purchase targets:

1.1588 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.1641 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The unsuccessful attempt in breaking the 1.1446 mark signals a high degree of probability that wave a will end. Thus, I recommend buying the pair now with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.1588 and 1.1641. An unsuccessful attempt to break through one of the target marks may lead to the completion of the construction of the ascending wave. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD pair for October 11. Wave 5 continues to build, but news on Brexit may change the wave outlook

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Wave counting analysis:

In the course of trading on October 10, the GBP / USD pair gained about 45 bp or more and continues to build estimating the 5th wave of the upward trend section with the first goal located near the 100.0% Fibonacci level. Despite the absence of a positive news background for the sterling pound, the currency continues to grow, thanks to expectations of progress in the Brexit negotiations. This factor fits perfectly into the current wave marking.

Purchase targets:

1.3295 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.3397 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2922 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD pair continues to build estimating the 5th wave. Thus, I recommend now to continue buying the pair with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.3295 and 1.3397, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% Fibonacci. There are no compelling reasons for selling a pair. However, this could appear if information about the lack of progress in negotiations between the EU and Britain emerged or in the event of a complete failure of the negotiations.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. GBP / USD review for the week of October 11

Wave pattern on the H4 chart:

The last wave of this scale was completed in mid-August at the upper boundary of the powerful support zone.

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

A rising wave from August 15 with high potential develops. Over time, the entire movement will move to a higher timeframe. In the wave structure, the middle part (B) is completed.

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Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

The ascending phase of October 4 gives a start to the final part (C) in the wave. In the coming days, a short rollback is expected.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Due to the small potential of the upcoming decline, sales are not recommended. In the area of fixation in the support, it is suggested to monitor the instrument purchase signals.

Resistance zones:

- 1.3550 / 1.3600

- 1.3250 / 1.3300

Support areas:

- 1.3080 / 1.3030

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (A-B-C). Three main timeframes are used for the analysis. The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a reversal.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR / USD pair on October 11, 2018

EUR / USD pair

The collapse of the US stock market was the main event yesterday. The Dow Jones index lost 3.15% and the S & P500 broad market index collapsed 3.29%, as well as, the Nasdaq technology sector dropped by 4.08%. There were no obvious reasons for such a collapse but it seems that the driving factor for such cases is traditional as the market collapsed under its own weight. For a very long time, the indices grew only because of the optimism of Trump and the buyback. As a result, investors began to invest in US government bonds whereby the yield on 5-year securities fell from 3.057% to 3.011%. However, this is a slight decrease in yield relative to the fall of the stock market. Similarly, the dollar did not actively buy up investors and even slightly lost in value. The USD index fell by 0.18% while the euro rose by 29 points. But if, for example, the collapse of the market was preceded by the bankruptcy of any bank, then we would see a stronger fall in government bond yields and a fall in the euro. The situation is similar to was at the beginning of February of this year, when the market was shaken up a bit with a relatively stable euro and the single currency then lost two pieces.

Donald Trump has already managed to describe yesterday's collapse as a healthy correction of the bull market. While the script is exactly like that but it was only aggravated by trade wars and general political instability in the world. For these reasons, we do not expect any strong or average growth of dollar counter currencies. The euro can reach the previously forecast goal of 1.1624, which is the Fibonacci retracement level from the fall line from September 24.

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Прогноз по USD/JPY на 11 октября 2018 гоaForecast for USD / JPY pair on October 11, 2018 да

USD / JPY pair

On Wednesday, Japan came out optimistic data. The volume of orders for engineering equipment increased by 2.8% in September after the August increase by 5.1%. The base index of orders for engineering products added 6.8% against the forecast of -3.9%. The yen broke away from supporting the trend line by more than 60 points, but the American stock market further collapsing crossed all hopes for growth. The S&P 500 fell by 3.29% while the Nikkei 225 is losing 4.28% today. The Chinese Shanghai Composite collapsed 4.34% in the Asian session.

On the daily chart, the price has fixed under the MACD trend line, it is possible that the balance line around 111.77 can still support the yen and the price will retest the uptrend line of the price channel at 112.66. The bearish sentiment is strong, and the signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily very strongly takes root in the zone of negative values. In the end, we are waiting for the price in the area on September 7 minimum at 110.39.

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EUR/USD. The dollar has problems - but the euro has even more

Data on the growth of US inflation were frankly weak. All components of today's release were in the red zone, showing a systemic decline. CPI is slowly sliding down after reaching its peak in July (2.9% yoy), reaching 2.3% in September. On the eve of the release, experts predicted a slowdown in inflation indicators, but the real figures were even worse than pessimistic forecasts. The core inflation index (Core CPI) also fell short of expectations and in annual terms came out at 2.2% – the second month in a row.

Published figures cause dollar bulls to ponder. It is one thing when it comes to a one-time reduction of a key indicator, and another thing when there are signs of a certain trend. Inflation in the United States shows a slowdown for the second month in a row, so the regulator will not be able to simply ignore this fact, as the Federal Reserve did at its last meeting. Moreover, the events of recent days may have broader implications that will affect the pace of monetary tightening. The fact is that the market is increasingly reminded that the growth of the interest rate has a reverse direction – firstly, the yield of treasuries is increasing, putting pressure on the stock market, and secondly-slows down inflation.

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By a surprising coincidence, traders within one day were able to feel the manifestation of these "side effects" in just a day: stock markets yesterday fell to multi-month lows (trying to regain positions today), and inflation slowed down more than expected. Donald Trump is an illustrative background to this picture, who criticized the Fed, accusing members of the central bank of rash actions.

Lower-ranking US officials (in particular, the US Treasury Secretary and the White House economic adviser) with their inherent diplomacy are trying to "clarify" the position of their boss, explaining that Trump does not put pressure on the Fed and respects its independence. But these attempts look plainly absurd, because Trump's accusations are quite straightforward and it is impossible to understand them ambiguously. That is why if the Fed accelerates the pace of the rate hike, all further economic problems (which at least indirectly can be linked to the actions of the regulator) will be "hung" on Jerome Powell and the other members of the Federal Reserve.

However, the main problem of the dollar (so far hypothetical) is the position of the Fed. The next meeting of the US central bank, the last but one for this year, will be held on November 8-that is, almost a month before it. Most likely, the data on the growth of US inflation for October will be released after the November meeting, so the members of the Fed will have to estimate the figures that will be at their disposal at the time of the meeting. It is doubtful that the dynamics of PPI and CPI will reduce the determination of Fed members so that they change their plans for December. In my opinion, dollar bulls should be afraid of another factor - namely, the collapse of quotations in the stock markets.

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If such a situation persists before November, then regulators will not be able to show carefree determination about the December actions, and at least will take a more cautious position. Let me remind you that at the end of the November meeting there is no press conference of Jerome Powell, so traders will have to be satisfied with only the accompanying statement. This means that any change in wording, any word that will cast a shadow of doubt on the determination of the Fed, will cause strong volatility in the foreign exchange market.

Given the pessimistic fundamental background, the resistance of the EUR/USD "bears" is somewhat surprising. But only at first glance: after all, the problems of the dollar are hypothetical, while the problems of the euro are tangible in "real time". Rome continues to insist on the declared size of the budget deficit, the European Commission threatens the Italians with sanctions, and Moody's and S&P are preparing to reduce the rating of Italy at the end of October. In addition, a rather vague minutes of the last meeting of the ECB was published today, which left more questions than answers.

Thus, according to some members of the European regulator, a number of factors that have slowed the economic growth of the eurozone are not temporary, so they can continue to serve as a particular "anchor". Unfortunately, the regulator has not voiced exactly what the factors meant and how widespread their influence is. A general conclusion can be made from the document published today: the ECB will not consider raising the rate before mid-autumn 2019. This position did not come as a surprise to EUR/USD traders, but naturally, it didn't evoke delight either.

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Thus, despite the weakening of the dollar, the euro does not have enough strength to seize the initiative and reverse the trend at the moment. So far, we are dealing with a corrective growth, where the key marks are 1.1580 (the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart) and 1.1620 (the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator coinciding with the Kijun-sen line on D1). We can only talk about the prospect of large-scale growth when these resistance levels are fixed above. And at the moment, the growth of the pair is uncertain, where the risk of falling to the bottom of the 15th figure is quite large.

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ECB minutes: the European regulator is concerned about the increase in the level of public debt. Inflation in the US showed

The European currency maintains its gradual growth amid fears related to the US stock market, which also puts pressure on the US dollar.

The minutes of the ECB

Today's report of the European Central Bank since the last meeting on monetary policy supported the European currency, even though it was about debt problems.

In the ECB minutes, the leaders called on eurozone countries with high debt levels to take measures to reduce it. The central bank warned that high government spending could undermine the stability of the currency bloc.

Most likely, such a call was sent to the Italian authorities, where the government is preparing to submit its budget plans for 2019. Let me remind you that the government set the target for the budget deficit for 2019, 2020 and 2021 at 2.4% of GDP, thereby increasing spending. This caused a negative reaction of the European Union, after which the government announced its readiness to reduce the target deficit in 2020 and 2021.

The minutes of the ECB was also focused on the fact that the increase in government spending during a period of high economic growth in the future will affect the sustainability of the eurozone.

With regards to interest rates and the asset repurchase program, there are no significant changes. The report indicates that the European Central Bank will continue to follow the plan, despite the growing economic risks and the threat of protectionism.

Today, the German government lowered its GDP growth forecast, but the market ignored this report. According to the data, the economy is projected to grow only 1.8% in 2018, not 2.3%, as previously stated. The German government also reduced its forecast for GDP growth in 2019 to 1.8% from 2.1%.

The forecast for the growth of private consumption, which is the main driver economically, was also revised negatively to 1.7% in 2018 and to 1.9% in 2019.

The report on the US labor market, where the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time increased, had a negative impact on the US dollar, even though the market remains at record low levels.

According to the US Department of labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week from September 30 to October 6 increased by 7000 and amounted to 214,000. Economists had forecast the number of applications to be 208,000.

Inflation in the US

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Inflation in the US showed less significant growth than economists had expected, which may affect the Federal Reserve's desire to further increase interest rates.

According to the data, the CPI consumer price index in the United States in September this year grew by only 0.1% compared to August, while economists had forecast an increase of 0.2%. As for core inflation, prices excluding food and energy in the US also rose 0.1% in September, while economists had expected a 0.2% rise.

The main slowdown in the index is due to energy prices, which in September this year fell by 0.5% in the United States, while food prices remained unchanged.

Real weekly earnings in the US increased by 0.2%.

The consumer price index in the US in September rose 2.3% compared to the same period last year, and annual inflation in July was 2.9%

As for the technical picture, the bullish momentum will significantly decrease when the pair reaches the highs around 1.1590, and therefore I do not recommend to rush into opening long positions in this range. More optimal levels for the purchase of euros will be located in the support area 1.1540 and 1.1490.

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GBP/USD. October 11. Results of the day. The pound does not pay attention to data from the UK

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 120п – 119п – 105p – 117п – 79п.

The average amplitude over the past 5 days: 108p (112p).

The British pound also continues its upward movement. In addition to all the reasons for the fall of the US dollar listed in the EUR/USD article, the British pound is growing on market expectations of a favorable outcome of negotiations on Brexit. Moreover, there are few special grounds for assuming such an outcome. Nevertheless, the pound is growing, and the morning attempt to start a downward correction ended in failure. Nevertheless, the correction can still begin today or tomorrow, as the MACD indicator is preparing to turn downwards, and the pound can not grow forever on the same rumors. We need a new piece of "insider" information or official information about the progress in the negotiations. As for the greenback, in addition to the collapse in the stock market, a whole group of factors does not allow the US currency to show growth. Even yesterday's failed GDP report for August in the UK did not have any negative impact on the pair. As a result, we can currently expect only a purely technical correction, which can be determined by the MACD turn down. On the last trading day of the week, the correction can develop, as important macroeconomic events are not planned for this day, and traders can begin to lock in positions on the longs that they have increased throughout the trading week. And next week we will expect official information on the Brexit negotiations, as the deadline is approaching.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues its upward movement and has almost reached the second resistance level of 1.3253. The price rebound from this target or a reversal of the MACD indicator downwards will serve as a signal to close longs – a correction is brewing.

It is recommended to open sell positions in small lots if traders manage to overcome the critical Kijun-sen line. In this case, the first target for the downward movement will be the Senkou Span B.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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EUR/USD. October 11. Results of the day. Inflation in the United States slowed more than expected.

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 79п – 66п – 70п – 71p – 65п.

The average amplitude over the past 5 days: 70P (83P).

On Thursday, October 11, the main topic of discussion is the collapse of the US stock market. However, we believe that the collapse of the dollar has so far had a very indirect effect. First, the US dollar is declining for the second day in a row, after it sharply strengthened. Thus, this growth of the US currency falls under the banal definition of a "correction". Secondly, there is no panic in the currency market. Third, today there was a particular factor which the fall of the US currency in the form of a weak report on the consumer price index, which slowed from 2.7% to 2.3% in annual terms. Thus, we believe that there is no link, or little, between the decline in the US stock market and the fall in the dollar. Based on this, we should not expect a further decline in the US currency, based only on expectations of a fall in the stock market. From a technical point of view, the pair may continue to move up to the levels of 1,1609 and 1,1642. Next, the pair is faced with a test in the form of overcoming the strong line of the Ichimoku indicator - Senkou Span B. It should be remembered that the current upward movement is a correction, despite the formation of the"Golden cross". Fourth, Donald Trump again lashed out at the Federal Reserve, which, in his opinion, does not allow the US economy to develop. Fifth, information on the possible introduction of new trade sanctions against China is again being discussed, as well as accusations against Beijing in regards to currency manipulation of the yuan exchange rate. All these factors should and have a negative impact on the dollar.

Trading recommendations:

For the EUR/USD pair, the price continues to move up. Thus, longs with targets of 1.1609 currently remain relevant. A turn of the MACD indicator downwards will signal at least a correction and will serve as a signal to reduce long positions.

Orders for selling can be viewed only after the pair is re-consolidated below the Kijun-Sen line. In this case, the downward trend will resume with the aim of the support level of 1.1448.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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Control zones AUDUSD 11.10.18

This week, the medium-term accumulation zone is being formed, where the main goal of growth is the upper limit of the weekly short-term at 0.7180.

Work within the medium-term accumulation zone is the basis for building today's trading plan. Purchases from the lower border of the NKZ 1/2 0.7065 are the most profitable, as the growth potential is estimated at 100 points or more. Stop for a long position should not exceed 30p, so that the ratio of risk to profit is not worse than 1 to 3.

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When reaching the weekly short-term, full or partly locking in a long position will be required, as this can lead to the emergence of a large offer and the continuation of the formation of the medium-term flat.

For the formation of an alternative model of the fall, it will be necessary to keep the price below yesterday's high, and the closure of today's US session should be below 0.7065. This will open the way for the resumption of the fall by 68 points and more, which will make it possible to look for sales at tomorrow's Asian session.

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Control zones GBPUSD 11.10.18

Yesterday, an upward reversal pattern was implemented, and the rate reached the upper limit of the weekly short-term of 1.3195.

The implementation of the priority upward pattern made it possible to close some of the purchases opened at the previous day's trading session. The rest can be taken to breakeven and held until the test of the next target level of 1.3316, which is the upper limit of the NKZ 1/2, built from the weekly short-circuit. Work in the direction of the rising priority is the most profitable.

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Before the opening of today's European session, the pair is trading above the upper limit of the weekly short-term of 1.3184, which indicates a high probability of testing the next zone of the NKZ 1/2, the upper limit of which is located at the level of 1.3316.

The formation of an alternative model will require the absorption of yesterday's growth and the closure of today's US session below the level of 1.3114, which is the lower limit of the NKZ 1/2, built from the local high of the week. This model will allow you to abandon purchases and consider short-term transactions in the medium term. The probability of this model's implementation is 30%, so it is auxiliary.

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BITCOIN Analysis for October 11, 2018

Bitcoin impulsively sank below $6,500 area which was quite a bit of a surprise for the bulls. As the price is residing above $6,000 area currently, the bullish bias is still valid in the market. However, after the impulsive crash below $6,500 area, the price is currently correcting itself with no sign of any Bullish Divergence. Meanwhile, the price is expected to move a bit lower, most probably towards $6,000 area before it starts to jump higher with a target towards $6,500 in the future. As the price remains above $6,000 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 6,000

RESISTANCE: 6,500

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for October 11, 2018

USD/CHF has been quite impressive with the recent bullish momentum which lead the price to reside above 0.9850 area with a daily close. The price dipped a bit lower this week due to worsethan-expected economic reports recently in the US which dented the overall gains of USD against CHF.

After the recent rate hike from 2.00% to 2.25%, USD gained impulsive momentum over CHF. However, USD lost steam after downbeat NFP readings. Today US CPI report was published with a decrease to 0.1% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.2% and Core CPI was unchanged at 0.1% which was expected to increase to 0.2%. Additionally, Unemployment Claims also increased to 214k which was expected to be unchanged at 207k.

On the CHF side, this week Unemployment Rate report was published with a decrease to 2.5% as expected from the previous value of 2.6%. The positive employment report pushed CHF lower as a retracement which may lead to certain short-term gains.

Meanwhile, ahead of Switzerland's PPI and Trade Balance reports to be published next week, any worse data from the US could empower CHF to sustain its momentum. Otherwise, any better than expected data from the US in the coming days may lead to continuation of the bullish trend.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has pushed a bit lower after certain corrections and volatility above 0.9850 area. The price is residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA and the event area of 0.9850 that indicates further bullish momentum for the future. However, a daily close below 0.9850 may lead the price to proceed lower towards 0.9700 area in the future. As the price resides above 0.9850 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue with a target towards 1.00 area.

SUPPORT: 0.9700, 0.9850

RESISTANCE: 0.9980-1.00

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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