Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR/USD for April 15, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the pair may remain on trading upwards from the level of 1.0983 which is the closing of yesterday's candle. Its target is set at 1.1002, a 61.8% retracement presented in a red dashed line. If this level is broken upward, the price will continue to move upward with the target of 1.1059, a 76.4% retracement presented in a red dashed line.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price will continue trading upward with the target at 1.1059, a 76.4% retracement presented in a red dashed line.

An unlikely scenario is a bearish move from the level of 1.1002, a 61.8% retracement (presented in a red dashed line) with a target at 1.0893 - a 50.0% retracement level presented in a blue dashed line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR/USD for April 15, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the pair may remain on trading upwards from the level of 1.0983 which is the closing of yesterday's candle. Its target is set at 1.1002, a 61.8% retracement presented in a red dashed line. If this level is broken upward, the price will continue to move upward with the target of 1.1059, a 76.4% retracement presented in a red dashed line.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price will continue trading upward with the target at 1.1059, a 76.4% retracement presented in a red dashed line.

An unlikely scenario is a bearish move from the level of 1.1002, a 61.8% retracement (presented in a red dashed line) with a target at 1.0893 - a 50.0% retracement level presented in a blue dashed line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDUSD broke below long term ascending trendline. Further drop now expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.64029

Reason for Entry: -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, moving average and ascending trendline resistance

Take Profit : 0.63022

Reason for Take Profit: 38.2% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 0.64324

Reason for Stop loss: Graphical swing high

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 15/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has almost hit 61% Fibonacci retracement that is located at the level of 1.1002, but eventually failed to rally higher after a Pin Bar candlestick pattern has been made at the top of the move. However, no new local low was made yet and the strong and positive momentum might help the bulls to push the rate towards the retracement level again. Please notice, that the EUR/USD might be developing a Rising Wedge price pattern, which is ultimately bearish in the short-term. Break out of the wedge (brown lines on the char) will be the first signal triggering the possible bell-off towards 1.0888 and below.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1207

WR2 - 1.1072

WR1 - 1.1024

Weekly Pivot - 1.0897

WS1 - 1.0839

WS2 - 1.0706

WS3 - 1.0650

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 15/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair made a fresh new high at the level of 1.2645, but the bears have managed to make a Pin Bar candlestick pattern at the top of the move. This last wave up has been made despite the overbought market conditions, but on strong and positive momentum, so as long as the short-term trend line provides the support, the bulls are still in control of the market. The next target for the bulls is seen at the level of 1.2580 and 1.2747 (key long-term technical resistance).

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2914

WR2 - 1.2699

WR1 - 1.2595

Weekly Pivot - 1.2369

WS1 - 1.2287

WS2 - 1.2048

WS3 - 1.1960

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 15/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Last month, the volume for the wallet Samourai Wallet, which does not require a deposit, tripled, and the Whirlpool service processed Bitcoins worth a total of over $ 10 billion in cryptocurrency. According to data posted on Twitter, activity in March amounted to 40% of total production, since its launch in May 2019.

While at the end of last year we observed a decrease in user activity in the service, so from January 2020 we are observing new records of processed Bitcoins on the platform. Please note that the service uses CoinJoin to reshuffle UTXO.

User funds are grouped in 0.01, 0.05 and 0.5 Bitcoin pools, and after mixing, into 0.05 and 0.5 Bitcoin pools.

The increase in Whirlpool volume is the result of tightening regulations by governments seeking to comply with the recommendations of the FATF Team, as well as stricter anti-money laundering requirements on regulated centralized exchanges.

In December 2019, Binance Singapore reportedly froze one user's funds while investigating a transaction that was mixed up using Wasabi's CoinJoin service.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has been trading inside a narrow range between the levels of $6,796 - $6,908 for some time now as the liquidity evaporates form markets. The supply zone located between the levels of $6,796 - $6,908 is now the key short-term zone for both bulls and bears, so only a clear breakout of one of the levels will give the market participants the direction. The larger time frame trend remains down, but the short-term momentum is slowly increasing, so the odds for an upwards breakout might be high.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $8,127

WR2 - $7,746

WR1 - $7,416

Weekly Pivot - $7,017

WS1 - $6,690

WS2 - $6,300

WS3 - $5,960

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 15/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

China is catching up with Americans on blockchain investments, according to New York research firm CB Insights. According to scientists, Asians accounted for 22% of investments in 2019, and the US for 31%. When we compare data from 2015, when this indicator in China was only 2% and in the US 51%, it is a huge progress.

However, CB Insights notes that this does not give a clear picture to assess in which of these economies blockchain development is greater.

Earlier this year, Xinhua, a state-owned Chinese financial media company and the Rhino Data financial data platform, reported that Chinese investment operations totaled approximately $ 3.44 billion in 245 transactions in 2019, a significant drop of 40.8% in terms of the size of investments compared to 2018.

According to experts, the majority of investments in China are activities of local entrepreneurs, however, in the near future an increase in foreign investment is expected.

As of today, there are no reports available that focus solely on how much blockchain investment took place last year. Instead of looking at numbers, it is worth paying attention to events such as the attitude of the government or the involvement of enterprises. Such observations will give us more data to assess what blockchain development looks like in these countries.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the level of $149.53, but despite the bounce, the bears are still in control over the market as the momentum is not increasing significantly. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $164.21. The key technical support remains at the level of $149.53, but is a case of a violation, the next support is seen at the level of $142.77. Any bullish attempt to rally is being used as a good chance to sell the ETH for a better price so far.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $213.33

WR2 - $193.74

WR1 - $179.45

Weekly Pivot - $159.49

WS1 - $145.21

WS2 - $125.44

WS3 - $111.55

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 04/15/2020 and trading recommendation

At first, everything went as expected, and as soon as French President Emmanuel Macron announced the extension of restrictive measures until May 11, the single European currency confidently began to decline. It turns out that in Europe, despite the steady decline in the number of new cases of coronavirus infection, the quarantine will last for a long time. This means that the economy will fall deeper into recession. And there is no doubt that if the second largest country in the eurozone takes this step, then other European countries will follow its example. Moreover, in Spain, Italy and Germany, the situation with coronavirus is somewhat worse than in France. And all this against the backdrop of US President Donald Trump's clear desire to cancel all sorts of restrictive measures as soon as possible and allow the economy to work at full capacity. After all, the economy was his main electoral advantage. But the coronavirus has confused all the cards. The coronavirus epidemic and the need to restrict the movement of people have led to a catastrophic increase in unemployment, and Trump is losing his main weapon in the fight for the White House. But the dollar began to rapidly lose its positions just before the opening of the US session. There has once again been an increase in the number of new cases of coronavirus infection in the United States. This means that there is no need to wait for any cancellation of the quarantine.

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Today, macroeconomic statistics should come to the fore, and there will be a lot of them. At the same time, as yesterday, the beginning of the European session could be accompanied by a weakening of the single European currency. The reason will be inflation. In France, it should fall from 1.4% to 0.6%. In Spain, from 0.7% to 0.1%. Well, in Italy, from 0.3% to 0.1%. Thus, we can see a confident step by Europe towards deflation. The data for Germany and the entire eurozone will be published later, if inflation is rapidly falling in three out of the four largest countries in the bloc, then the same thing will happen throughout Europe.

Inflation (France):

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However, we could see a repeat of yesterday as soon as the US session opens and the dollar will lose its positions. Again, this may be due to macroeconomic statistics. The fact is that retail sales, which were growing by 4.3% in February, could show a decline of 2.0% by the end of March. Industrial production, which stopped declining in February, even though it showed zero growth, should resume its decline by 1.5%. And it should be noted that this is in annual terms. So the decline in retail sales looks disastrous. Consumer demand is a fundamental factor for the US economy. And you can understand Trump, who wants to launch the economy as soon as possible.

Retail sales (United States):

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we see the resumption of the upward movement, where the quotes managed to overcome the previous day's peak of 1.0967 and head towards the psychological level of 1.1000. In fact, buyers have already felt the boundaries of the key value, slowing down the movement within the 1.0990 mark.

Relative to the daily period, an upward movement is recorded from the 1.0775 level, where more than 60% has already been worked out relative to the previous inertia.

We can assume that in the first half of the day, the quote will face a temporary fluctuation within the values of 1.0950/1.0990, where special attention is paid to the upper limit, since it is possible for the eur to strengthen further in a local perspective.

We specify all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider purchase positions higher than 1.1000, with the prospect of a move to 1.1040-1.1080.

- We consider selling positions in the direction of 1.0955 (1.0950).

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the hourly and daily periods reflect an upward trend, signaling a purchase. At the same time, minute intervals work on the existing fluctuation, signaling a sale.

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EUR/USD. Risk appetite woke up, but bulls need to overcome 1.1010

The euro-dollar pair continued to drift towards the 10th figure during the Asian session on Wednesday. The overall improvement in the epidemiological situation made it possible for the EUR/USD bulls to overcome the resistance level of 1.0950 and demonstrate a sluggish, but still growth, amid the weakening of the US currency. However, buyers of the pair act carefully – there is uncertainty in their actions, and it is quite justified. Despite the improved market conditions, it is still too early to celebrate the victory over Covid-19. Moreover, according to many experts, hasty actions of the authorities to lift quarantine restrictions may trigger a second wave of the epidemic. Therefore, the de facto market is now frozen in anticipation of a tipping point, although a certain appetite for risk has definitely appeared in traders.

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But let's start with the good news. According to the latest data, many countries in Europe have reached a so-called "plateau", when the peak of the incidence curve then turns into a straight line, and then begins to decline. Now doctors in some European countries report a slowdown in the number of new hospitalizations and a decrease in the number of patients in intensive care. A similar situation has developed, in particular, in France, Spain, Italy and Germany. The number of people who have recovered is also growing – for example, today it became known that Germany was ahead of Spain in this indicator (68,200 and 67,604 recoveries, respectively). The increase in deaths in Iran has also slowed for the first time in a month – according to the country's health minister, now we can talk about the beginning of a downward trend in the incidence of diseases.

Overall, 58,800 cases of coronavirus were diagnosed in the world over the past 24 hours – 11,500 fewer than in the previous 24 hours. The number of new cases of the disease in the world has been decreasing for the fourth day.

The situation is still difficult in the US, although there are optimistic assessments. For example, US President Donald Trump reported that the situation with Covid-19 has reached its "plateau" in most states, and in some cities, the disease statistics are steadily declining. Against this dynamic, he promised to announce the date of lifting the restrictions "in the near future". White House National Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow later clarified that the president can launch the market "in the next two days", as in his opinion, the country is already ready to return to work. In turn, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, who initially sounded the alarm about the economic damage from the coronavirus, again repeated his thesis that a prolonged shutdown of the economy may be more harmful to the states than the virus itself. Not all the state governors share the president's optimism, but they are also preparing to lift strict quarantine restrictions. According to the American press, two groups of governors (in six states on the east coast and three states on the west coast) reported that they are creating working groups to coordinate regional plans for "opening up the economy".

At the same time, experts of the World Health Organization warn that all positive trends in the world are primarily due to a large-scale lockdown and if the quarantine restrictions are lifted too quickly, we will expect a second wave of the epidemic. WHO expects coronavirus outbreaks to return until a vaccine is available.

There is no vaccine yet. Although there are some successes on this front – the world's leading scientists are currently developing 70 vaccines against Covid-19. There are 67 drugs that are undergoing preclinical research, three have already begun testing on humans. Clinical trials are already being conducted by the Chinese company CanSino Biologics together with the Beijing Institute of Biotechnology, as well as American companies Inovio Pharmaceuticals and Moderna. More than others, the Chinese have advanced in trials – they are already in the second stage of clinical research. Last week, the company announced the recruitment of 500 volunteers for further work (in total, there are three stages of testing). According to some estimates, the vaccine may be finalized and approved by the beginning of next year.

Still, despite the many risks and numerous buts, the markets have perked up. The currency market is still weakly reacting to the latest trends, while the stock market is more pronounced - Wall Street indexes reached the upper limit of local ranges yesterday. This was also facilitated by China, which published unexpectedly good data in the field of foreign trade. Thus, China's exports fell by 6.6% in March y/y, while experts expected the March figure to be much lower at a -14% level. Imports fell by less than one percent, while analysts had expected a slowdown of almost ten percent.

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Thus, the euro-dollar pair still retains the potential for further growth, at least to conquer the 10th figure. Buyers of the pair broke the 1.0950 mark, and now they need to overcome the Kijun-sen line on the daily chart, which has slightly fallen (compared to yesterday) to the 1.1010 mark. If the EUR/USD bulls are fixed above this target, we can consider long positions to the round mark of 1.1100 and the main resistance level of 1.1130 – at this price point, the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator coincides with the lower border of the Kumo cloud on D1.

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USD/CHF IPDA 60 Day Ranges For April 15, 2020

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The USD/CHF pair is now moving in a market maker sell model pattern in the premium array area. The may reach the 0.9567 level. If it breaks through this level, USD/CHF could dip the 0.9502 level. However, the pair may change its trajectory if it retraces to 0.9686.

The overall bias for USD/CHF is bearish.

(Disclaimer)

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 15. Pound buyers may have problems. Bulls need a resistance return of 1.2632

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The bulls continue to push the pair higher and higher, but there are absolutely no fundamental reasons for such a sharp purchase of the British pound, which in the end, can end very badly. Given that there is no help other than the Bank of England's daily repurchase of bonds worth 4.5 billion pounds, the further growth of the GBP/USD seems very doubtful, especially if we consider what data are waiting for us ahead. In the short term, the bulls need to return to the resistance of 1.2632, consolidating on which will be a clear signal to continue the pound's growth in order to update the new highs of 1.2686 and 1.2744, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on the pound returns in the first half of the day, then a false breakout in the support area of 1.2573, where the moving averages also pass, will be a signal to open long positions in the pair. I recommend postponing larger purchases until the test of the low of 1.2501.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers are not yet active, and are closely monitoring the market's reaction to the update of new highs. The first signal to open short positions in GBP/USD will be an unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.2632, which formed today in the Asian session. This scenario may cause the pound to fall to the low of 1.2573, the breakout of which will only raise the pressure on the pair and lead to a support test of 1.2501, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls show themselves above the resistance of 1.2632, and there is no rapid movement down from this level, it is best to postpone short positions until the high of 1.2686 is updated, or sell immediately for a rebound from the resistance of 1.2744 in the calculation of an intraday downward correction of 40-50 points.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the continued benefits of pound buyers.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.2651, while the lower border at 1.2560 will provide support.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 15. Eurozone inflation unlikely to help euro's growth. Bulls aim for resistance

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Bulls continue to remain optimistic and aim to break the resistance of 1.0989, which formed today in the Asian session. The lack of important fundamental statistics keeps the demand for the euro, but given that today we are waiting for eurozone inflation data, there could be problems with growth above 1.0989. A break and consolidation at this level will open a direct road to the area of new highs 1.1040 and 1.1093, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on the euro returns after the reports, it is likely that the bulls will be able to show themselves only when a false breakout forms in the support area of 1.0943, just above which the moving averages pass. I advise opening long positions in EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only after updating the low of 1.0897.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The primary task of sellers of the euro is to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.0989, which will be a signal to open short positions in the expectation of a decline to the support of 1.0943. Weak reports on inflation in Italy and France could force traders to take profits on long positions, which will lead to a break in the support of 1.0943 and a larger movement of the pair down to the low of 1.0897. However, if the bulls still manage to pick up the resistance of 1.0989 in the first half of the day, then I recommend selling EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only after testing the high of 1.1040, since data US retail sales data, which is set for release in the second half of the day, can return demand for the greenback.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted slightly above 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the preservation of the advantage of buyers of the European currency.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.0995. A break of the lower border at 1.0955 will raise the pressure on the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for April 15 - 2020

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EUR/GBP turned lower again after a minor corrective rally to 0.8739. A new low has been seen at 0.8682 confirming that the corrective downtrend is intact for a final dip closer to 0.8621 where a solid bottom for wave 2 is expected and a new impulsive rally should be seen.

Only a direct break above minor resistance at 0.8739 and more importantly a break above resistance at 0.8787 will confirm that EUR/GBP has bottomed and the next impulsive rally to above 0.9492 is developing.

R3: 0.8765

R2: 0.8745

R1: 0.8739

Pivot: 0.8702

S1: 0.8685

S2: 0.8650

S3: 0.8621

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 0.8635 or upon a break above resistance at 0.8765

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 15 - 2020

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GBP/JPY had been trading within a narrow range for the last 24 hours. Trading between 134.48 - 135.50 could indicate that one more rally closer to 137.15 may be seen, but only if minor support at 134.38 keeps protecting the downside. A break below minor support at 134.38 will indicate that the corrective rally from 123.99 is completed and a final decline to below 123.99 should be expected.

R3: 137.15

R2: 136.36

R1: 135.41

Pivot: 134.35

S1: 133.67

S2: 132.97

S3: 132.41

Trading recommendation:

We will sell GBP at 136.95 or upon a break below 134.35

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD testing downside confirmation, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.3940

Reason for Entry: horizontal swing low support

Take Profit :1.3742

Reason for Take Profit: 100% Fibonacci extension , horizontal swing low support

Stop Loss: 1.4080

Reason for Stop loss: Graphical overlap resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry:1.28005

Reason for Entry: Horizontal pullback resistance, 61.8% fibonacci extension, 76.4% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.22555

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low support

Stop Loss: 1.31282

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing high resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry:1.28005

Reason for Entry: Horizontal pullback resistance, 61.8% fibonacci extension, 76.4% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.22555

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low support

Stop Loss: 1.31282

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing high resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on April 15, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound overcame the strong resistance of 1.2540 yesterday, formed three technical lines: the Fibonacci level of 123.6%, the indicator lines of balance and MACD. As a result, the price worked at the level of 110.0% Fibonacci and may continue to grow to the level of 100.0% at the price of 1.2725. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator demonstrates the intention to turn around.

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In the event of a price reversal, its exit over technical resistance will be interpreted as a false signal and as an independent sign to decrease after false growth.

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A reversal and further price fall are possible when consolidating below the MACD line on the H4 chart, below the 1.2540 level. The first target will be a Fibonacci retracement rate of 138.2% at the price of 1.2425. The Marlin oscillator lies in the horizon on this timeframe, the risk of a downward reversal is increased.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on April 15, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar consolidated above the indicator lines of the balance sheet and MACD and above the embedded line of the price channel on Tuesday, located just above these lines. The Marlin oscillator is growing, and so is the currency pair. Target at 0.6540 - the closest price channel line. Overcoming the first goal opens the second - the price level of 0.6670 is the extremes of the first decade of February 2020, the low of October 2019 and the February 2019.

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The Marlin divergence is held on the four-hour chart. Nevertheless, there is a possibility that the first target at 0.6540 may not be achieved. In case the price falls under the MACD line (0.6330), which on the daily chart will also correspond to a price drop for the same indicator line, it opens a declining scenario with the aim of supporting the price channel line around 0.6180 (daily). Next is 0.5805.

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Summary: it is advisable to wait for the price to fall, and with overcoming 0.6330, open sales with the target of 0.6180, stop loss above 0.6380.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on April 15, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen worked out the entire accumulation range between the two price channel lines on the daily chart yesterday. The lower limit of the 106.90 range is a signal level, to overcome it will serve as the beginning of movement to the lower line of the price channel at around 102.50. The price is under the balance line, the Marlin oscillator is in the zone of negative values - a downward trend has formed.

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Reversal signs of the price to the current moment have not yet formed on the four-hour chart. Their appearance is possible by the end of today or even tomorrow, since the Marlin line lies in the horizon, yet the price is in the accumulation range. We are waiting for price taking under 106.90.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on April 15, 2020

EUR/USD

On Tuesday, the euro worked out an option with a push to the MACD line on the daily chart, but the market is starting to seriously try to move to the target of 1.1175 on the nested price channel line. This scenario will begin to be implemented with the release of prices above the MACD line, that is, above 1.1000. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has entered the territory of a growing trend.

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The price is rising on a four-hour chart, and it is above the balance and MACD line, while Marlin turned up before the division of trends.

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The market still has a chance of a price reversal and a medium-term fall in the euro, but for this to happen, the price needs to consolidate under the MACD line, below 1.0890.

Thus, with the price above 1.1000, purchases with a take profit below 1.1175 and stop loss below 1.0950 (under the line of the price channel) can be opened. Sales, in turn, can be opened with withdrawal prices below 1.0890.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 15. Donald Trump: OPEC+ members can reduce oil production by 20 million barrels per day.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 116.3347

The British pound continues its upward movement from the very beginning of the week. At the moment, the Murray level of "6/8"-1.2573 has been overcome and "7/8"-1.2634 has been worked out, and there is not a single sign of the beginning of a corrective movement. Market participants continue to buy the British pound even though there are no fundamental reasons for this now, and the panic can be considered a thing of the past. However, the pair continues to recover from the shocks that have been observed in the past month and a half. Thus, we may still be witnessing movements that are not fundamentally justified for some time.

In the UK, no macroeconomic publications are scheduled for tomorrow. Thus, all traders' attention will be focused on macroeconomic statistics from overseas. As in the case of the euro currency, traders of the British pound do not react too strongly to the macroeconomic background now. To be more precise, they don't react at all. For example, yesterday, the pound dollar pair "plowed" more than 100 points up, without having any reason to do so. Of course, any event that occurred yesterday can be "linked" to this growth of the pair, "concluding" that because of it, the demand for risky assets has increased. However, we believe that if traders do not react to the actions of Central Banks, the US government, do not respond to the scale of the "coronavirus" pandemic, to specific macroeconomic reports, it is unlikely that they are closely watching, for example, the oil market or the OPEC meeting, so that they will rush to buy a riskier pound. Thus, almost the entire fundamental background is now interesting and noteworthy, but no more. It does not help in predicting the movement of the currency pair in any way.

Returning to the OPEC+ meeting, we have already said that the world's largest oil producers managed to reach an agreement to reduce oil production by almost 10 million barrels per day in total. Black gold quotes did not react to these very optimistic results of the meeting. And even began to decline again. However, it should be noted that the agreement will enter into force only on May 1. In other words, it will take only three weeks to start reducing production, reducing supply on the oil market, and, accordingly, only three weeks to expect an increase in oil prices. Market participants, however, can also specifically lower the price of oil to buy it at the best possible price. We are talking primarily about speculators who do not use purchased oil futures but only resell them. Thus, until the end of April, there may even be a drop in quotes, but after May 1, there is a 90% probability that growth will begin. A currency like the Russian ruble has even started to grow in advance. And US President Donald Trump said that OPEC+ wants to achieve a double reduction in oil production, that is, up to 20 million barrels per day. The US President, as always, announced this via Twitter: "OPEC+ intends to reduce production by 20 million barrels per day, and not by 10 million, which is now reported." The American leader also thanked Russia and Saudi Arabia for their cooperation, saying that now the energy industry will recover much faster than previously expected.

Meanwhile, the UK quarantine is being extended until May 7. This was stated by Foreign Minister Dominic Raab on April 14. Soon, Raab will hold talks with the Ministers of Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland and agree on all the details. Earlier, Dominic Raab said that the quarantine measures are bringing results and there are the first signs that the spread of the "coronavirus" in the country is being suspended. The government's actions are supported by the population of Great Britain. 74% of respondents believe that defeating the epidemic is now more important than restarting the economy. And according to calculations by the Center for Economic and Business Research in Britain, each day of quarantine costs the economy about 2.4 billion pounds.

But, as in the case of the euro currency, traders now do not pay attention to such calculations. They do not pay attention to the number of infected people in the United States or the UK but continue to trade on pure "technology". And the technical picture is now quite simple. We have at our disposal an almost recoilless upward trend, which is eloquently signaled by the lower channel of linear regression. Only the highest channel of linear regression is directed downward from all trend indicators. The Heiken Ashi indicator, as the fastest, shows the direction of the intraday movement. And it does not differ from the global direction. The volatility of the pound/dollar pair is starting to grow again, but it does not differ much from the average indicators. As in the case of the euro currency, we believe that the British pound can return to the levels where a month and a half ago, the pair began to grow quite strongly, and then a collapse of 1,700 points. Thus, our target level is 1.2800. It was at this level that the pair was located on March 2-3. When this level is reached, which at the same time will equal approximately 76% of the correction from the last fall, the "correction against correction" may begin, in turn, and the pound may begin to fall with goals in the area of 1.19-1.20. As we see, the pair's potential for the coming weeks remains quite strong, and the macroeconomic background does not prevent market participants from trading, according to technical factors.

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The average volatility of the pound/dollar pair continues to decline and currently stands at 107 points. Just like the euro/dollar pair, the pound is approaching levels of volatility characterized as "average" in strength. The activity of traders continues to fall and this can not but please. On Wednesday, April 15, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2518 and 1.2732. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2573

S2 - 1.2512

S3 - 1.2451

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2634

R2 - 1.2695

R3 - 1.2756

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar pair continues to trade with an upward bias on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, it is now recommended to stay in the purchases of the pound with the goals of 1.2695 and 1.2732 until the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down. It is recommended to open sell positions no earlier than when the bears overcome the moving average with the first goal at 1.2390, which is not expected soon since the price is now too far from the moving average.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 15. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos: the economic recovery will start in 2021, another

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 135.6467

The EUR/USD currency pair starts the third trading day of the week with the continuation of the upward movement and testing the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986. No important macroeconomic statistics were published the day before, and in principle, there were few important news. Thus, traders continue to trade the pair, relying mainly on the technical picture. Markets continue to calm down, which is reflected in the volatility indicator. Now the main thing is not to have any new outbursts of emotions and waves of panic. Then the trading mode will return to its usual course.

Several macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Wednesday, April 15. All in the United States. We are talking about reports on retail sales for March, as well as derivatives of this indicator, as well as industrial production for the same period. We believe that these reports will be interesting in any case, but the reaction of market participants to them again is unlikely to follow. In these conditions, reports like inflation, retail sales, and industrial production have almost zero value for currency traders. However, it will be possible to draw certain conclusions about the real contraction of the US economy, and traders may still work out these data since volatility has decreased significantly in recent weeks and traders may already need certain impulses to move the pair. As for the conclusions about the state of the American economy, we already clearly understand the state of the labor market and the unemployment rate in the United States. Now it remains to deal with consumer spending during the epidemic, crisis, and quarantine. According to experts' forecasts, retail sales in monthly terms may decrease by 6.5-8.0%. This is a huge loss. Changes are usually plus or minus 1%. Retail sales excluding cars could lose between 3.0% and 4.8%. Industrial production is expected to fall from 3.8% to 4.0% monthly. Again, we would like to note that these are only forecast values. Recall that the forecasts for applications for unemployment benefits, NonFarm Payrolls, and inflation in the US were also much better than the actual values. Thus, today's reports may be much worse than the traders' expectations.

Given such severe cuts in the country's economy, it is not surprising that Donald Trump wants to restart it as soon as possible. The problem, as we have already said, is the danger of the second wave of pandemics, new infections, new deaths. After all, sick people can't work. Thus, the removal of quarantine measures may lead to a spike in the incidence of diseases and an even greater drop in the country's macroeconomic indicators. However, while no concrete decisions have been made yet, it doesn't make much sense to talk about what might happen. Donald Trump himself believes that the epidemic has already been localized and slowed down. During a regular press conference at the White House, the head of state said: "Over the weekend, the number of new infections registered per day decreased throughout the country." Thus, Trump believes that the strategy of fighting the "coronavirus" works, and the Americans followed all the rules of quarantine. The US leader also thanked the medical staff and noted that "the situation is developing better now than previously imagined."

In Italy and Spain, there is also a slowdown in the spread of "coronavirus" infection. Health Minister Salvador Illa made an official statement that the "peak" of the pandemic has passed and the number of new infections is decreasing. Approximately the same situation is observed in Italy. Since April 14, the country has partially lifted quarantine measures, allowing the operation of stationery stores, children's clothing, bookshops, and laundries. There was also a list of production operations that are out of the ban on work. At the same time, all retail outlets must comply with the rules of distancing and disinfection.

At the same time, as the "coronavirus" slowly begins to loosen its grip on Europe, calculations begin to show how much the EU economy will decline, as well as when it can be expected to recover. Vice-President of the European Central Bank, Luis de Guindos, believes that Europe may experience a stronger economic downturn than the rest of the world. According to de Guindos, the French economy will decline only in the first quarter by 6%, Germany - by 10%. The recovery of economic activity, according to the Vice-President of the ECB, will begin no earlier than 2021. Also, Luis de Guindos noted that additional public spending on countering the epidemic could amount to 1.5 trillion euros.

However, the European currency does not react in any way to the statements of the ECB Vice-President, who predict a strong economic downturn in the Eurozone. This is because there will be a strong economic downturn in the United States as well. Thus, at the moment, we have no reason to assume that the balance of power between the euro and the US dollar has changed in any way. Thus, to draw such conclusions and make long-term forecasts, we need macroeconomic reports from both the US and the European Union, and we have not yet received most of the figures for March. Thus, only by the end of April will it be possible to make more or less accurate conclusions about the scale of economic losses in Europe and abroad. And based on these data, it will be possible to conclude which economy is waiting for more serious cuts. And based on this conclusion, it will be possible to predict the further movement of the euro/dollar pair in the coming months. At the moment, the upward movement is not too strong, as evidenced by the purple bars of the Heiken Ashi indicator. Thus, the euro currency is steadily moving towards the area of the 1.1000 level, which we called the target, based on the "correction against correction" scenario. After working out this level, we expect a decline in the European currency quotes. Both linear regression channels have turned sideways in recent days, but the lower channel has already started to turn up, indicating the formation of an upward trend.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair continues to decline and is already 75 points as of April 15. Thus, the markets continue to calm down and return to normal. The current value of volatility can no longer be called "strong". Today, another decrease in volatility is possible due to not very important macroeconomic statistics. We expect the price to move between the levels of 1.0909 and 1.1059 on April 15. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator down will indicate a new round of downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0864

S2 - 1.0742

S3 - 1.0620

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.0986

R2 - 1.1108

R3 - 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair resumed its upward movement. Thus, traders are now recommended to trade for an increase in the euro currency with the goals of the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986 and the volatility level of 1.1059, before the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down. It is recommended to sell the euro/dollar pair not before fixing the price below the moving average line with the goals of 1.0864 and 1.0742.

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