Technical analysis of AUD/USD for December 30, 2014

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Overview :



  • The AUD/USD pair rose from the strong level of 0.8122 and extended further to as high as 0.8146 yesterday, and it has closed at the 0.8155 level today. It should be noted that support will be formed at 0.8155 because this level has also formed a double bottom on H1 chart. Furthermore, the price set above 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels a day ago. For that, we expect a saturation around the level of 0.8155 (but it should be noted that the real strong support has been already placed at the level of 0.8122). Hence, the market is likely to start showing the signs of a bullish bias again from this spot in order to indicate a bullish opportunity from the level of 0.812 (11.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels on the H1 chart). Accordingly, buy above the level of 0.8122 with the first target at 0.8178; besides, it will call for an uptrend in order to continue bullish towards 0.8197 in coming hours. On the other hand, if bulls are forced to pullback below the level of 0.8122 and sellers can break this level, the best solution is to set a stop loss at the price of 0.8108.



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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 30, 2014

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Overview :



  • The price of USD/CAD pair is continuing to show signs of strength following the break at the price of 1.1561. The level of 1.1561 represents a strong support this month and coincides with the 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H1 chart. Therefore, the USD/CAD pair resistance has broken and it has turned to support for a month approximately. Moreover, the pair has already formed the strong support at the level of 1.1560. So, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.1565 with the target of 1.1625. It should be noted that the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels coincides with the price of 1.1625. If the price of USD/CAD pair wil be able to break the level of 1.1625; then the trend continues towards the second target at 1.1648. Also, it should be noted that the double top has already set at the point of 1.1673. And if the trend breaks this level and closes below the key level (1.1587), then it will be a rather convincing downside momentum. The structure of the fall does not look corrective, for that the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the price of 1.1587. Accordingly, it will be a good sign to sell at this level. It should be noticed that the support has already been placed at the 1.1561 level.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 30, 2014

General overview for 30/12/2014 10:00 CET


Despite making new local high yesterday, the market still stays inside the intraday trading range between the levels of 1.1558 - 1.1665. Nevertheless, the last wave to the downside is still being expected here to complete the overall complex and time consuming corrective cycle in wave 4 purple. The projected target is at the level of 1.1558. Please notice that any breakout above the level of 1.1665 is bullish and further high prices should be expected.


Support/Resistance:


1.1712 - WR2


1.1670 - WR1


1.1650 - Intraday Resistance


1.1623 - Weekly Pivot


1.1588 - Intraday Support


1.1581 - WS1


1.1558 - Technical Support


1.1535 - WS2


1.1500 - Invalidation Level


Trading recommendations:


Yesterday's buy stop orders from the level of 1.1633 should be still kept open. The SL orders should be placed below the level of 1.1588 and TP at the level of 1.1672 with a possible extension upside to the level of 1.1733.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 30, 2014

General overview for 30/12/2014 09:30 CET


The overnight price action has finally broke out of the tight trading zone and after making a false upside breakout with doji candle, the market sharply reversed and broke the intraday support at the level of 146.43. Currently, this level is the key level in the analysis as there are two possible Elliott wave scenarios available. The main scenario indicates a completed corrective cycle in wave XX brown, and another leg to the downside is being expected to complete the last wave Z brown in wave 2 red. The alternate scenario indicates an unfinished wave XX brown in a shape of an irregular flat correction, where wave (a) and (b) blue are done and now wave (c) blue to the upside is anticipated. The confirmation of the main scenario comes with the level of 146.43 rejection. On the other hand, the confirmation of the alternative scenario comes with the level of 146.43 violation. Any new low below the level of 144.97 supports the main scenario .


Support/Resistance:


149.76 - Technical Resistance|Swing High|


148.35 - WR3


148.22 - Technical Resistance


147.74 - WR2


147.17 - WR1


147.13 - Intraday Resistance


146.54 - Weekly Pivot


146.44 - Intraday Resistance|Key Level|


145.92 - WS1


145.70 - Technical Support


145.39 - WS2


144.97 - Intraday Support|Swing Low|


144.82 - WS3


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders should stay aside and watch the price will either test the level of 146.43 (and trade the breakout or a rejection), or price will violate the level of 144.97 ( and trade the downside breakout). Please use tight SL orders as the end of the year liquidity is low and the market moves might get very sharp and sudden in either direction.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 30, 2014

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Technical summary:


There was no time for a proper correction back to 1.5724; and we are already close to the Spetember low at 1.5526 which will likely act as a support for a minor correction towards 1.5629 before the next decline towards 1.54 and 1.4966 in a huge flat correction.


Trading recommendation:


We will sell EUR at 1.5615 with stop placed at 1.5675


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 30, 2014

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Technical summary:


The x-wave we where looking for ended early at 147.22; and now we will be looking for a decline in wave y to 142.44, where wave y will be equal in length to wave w. In short-term we expect minor resistance at 145.75 to protect the upside for a continuation lower to 144.71.


Trading recommendation:


We sold EUR at 145.90 and will place our stop at 146.55 and take profit at 142.50.


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Daily analysis of USDX for December 30, 2014

The USDX has gradually consolidated above the 90.16 level, given that this area has served as strong resistance to this instrument. Therefore, caution should be exercised in the way the USDX is making this consolidation, because this instrument is not forming a strong bullish pattern on the H4 chart.


H4chart's resistance levels: 90.50 / 91.55


H4chart's support levels: 90.16 / 89.55


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On the H1 chart, one can appreciate that the USDX attempted to form a higher high pattern below the resistance level of 90.26. However, USDX failed several times to make a breakout in that area. Therefore, if the USDX manages to make a bullish consolidation above this area, the next target would be the resistance level of 90.50.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 90.26 / 90.50


H1 chart's support levels: 90.01 / 89.76


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 90.26, take profit is at 90.50, and stop loss is at 89.76.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 30, 2014

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD continues to strengthen the bearish structure with the formation of a lower low pattern. Note that this pair formed a fractal near the resistance level of 1.5589. So, the GBP/USD pair is still likely to stay solid in the current bearish bias. For now, this pair is trying to make a breakout at the support level of 1.5512.


H4chart's resistance levels: 1.5541 / 1.5589


H4chart's support levels: 1.5512 / 1.5341


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In the short term, the situation has not changed much about the current status of the trend in the GBP/USD pair, as this pair performed a successful breakout at the level of 1.5534. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair is preparing to consolidate below the 1.5501 level, although this can only be achieved only if the pair ends of the lower low pattern development.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5534 / 1.5590


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5501 / 1.5460


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5501, take profit is at 1.5460, and stop loss is at 1.5541.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 30, 2014

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Spanish Flash CPI y/y, M3 Money Supply y/y, and Private Loans y/y. The US will release the economic reports too such as the CB Consumer Confidence and S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.2215.


Strong Resistance:1.2208.


Original Resistance: 1.2196.


Inner Sell Area: 1.2184.


Target Inner Area: 1.2155.


Inner Buy Area: 1.2126.


Original Support: 1.2114.


Strong Support: 1.2102.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.2095.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 30, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will not release any news, but the US will release some economic data such as CB Consumer Confidence and S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.


Resistance. 3: 121.07.


Resistance. 2: 120.84.


Resistance. 1: 120.60.


Support. 1: 120.31.


Support. 2: 120.08.


Support. 3: 119.84.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 30, 2014

EUR/USD: This is a bear market and it is not yet prudent to go long in it. The price is currently below the resistance line at 1.2200, going towards the support line at 1.2150. That support line is the next target to be reached, and with the current bearish outlook in the market, this is possible.


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USD/CHF: This is a bull market and short trades are not recommended here. Right now, it is logical to buy short-term pullbacks with the hope that the price may go higher. Being above the support level at 0.9850, the price has a great possibility of reaching the resistance level at 0.9900. It could even breach it to the upside.


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GBP/USD: The Cable has gone further downwards in the context of a downtrend, going below the distribution territory at 1.5550. The Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart is ever conspicuous, and the price is close to the accumulation territory at 1.5500. The probability that the accumulation territory would be breached to the downside is very high. Should this happen, the next target would be the accumulation territory at 1.5450.


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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument has been going upwards in a slow and steady manner – with everything supporting the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The bias is bullish and the price would easily test the supply level at 121.00. That is the next target.


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EUR/JPY: Since the JPY is weak, the EUR/JPY cross has been making attempts to go north. A break above the supply level at 147.50 would result in a confirmed bullish bias in the market.


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#USDX Technical analysis for December 30, 2014

The Dollar index has broken the short-term consolidation and has pushed higher to new highs getting closer to our 91 target from the bullish flag pattern. A trend remains bullish. Support at 89.50 is critical for short-term.


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Green line = support


Red lines = sideways consolidations


The Dollar index has broken yet another sideways consolidation to the upside. As I mentioned yesterday, a move above 90.18 would signal a break out and the start of another upward move that will bring us closer to 91 which is our target for some time now. But lets look at the bigger picture as the bullish implications are big.


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Red line = resistance


The Dollar index is depicted above in a monthly chart. Price has not only managed to break above the Ichimoku cloud resistance but has also broken the descending trend line resistance from 2009. The Dollar index has managed to reach and break above the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the big decline from 121. This means that we could reach even higher towards the 50% or even the 61.8% retracement of the decline. Assuming that this is good news for bulls, a healthy correction is always needed before resuming the up trend. So, we need to be patient and wait for a pull back near 84-82 to buy for the next leg up.


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Gold Technical analysis for December 30, 2014

Gold price as expected could not break above the important resistance of $1,195-$1,200 area and was rejected. The rejection by the trend line resistance has pushed Gold price towards the recent lows and support at $1,180. 1419892645_goldh4.jpg


Red line = resistance


Green line = support


Gold price as can be seen on the 4-hour chart above was rejected at the resistance we mentioned on Monday. Price remains below the red trend line and below the Ichimoku cloud. As long as price is below $1,195, I feel confident we will break below support at $1,170 and we will test the recent lows at $1,130.


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Blue line = support


Gold price is on a bearish trend for some time now. The weekly chart above shows that price is below the kijun-sen support. Although it is still early in the week, we should not ignore the fact that Gold price continues to make lower lows and lower highs. Closing this week below $1,185 will be a bearish signal with potential downward move to $1,130 or even new lows.




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