Industrial activity in China returns to pre-crisis levels

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Latest data shows that deflation in China eased in July, fueled by rising global energy prices and industrial activity returning to pre-coronavirus levels. In addition, exports, which have always been developed in China, have not declined even amid the pandemic.

Market participants say that this bodes well for a global economic recovery.

"China is so far ahead of the exit from lockdown that any good signs on the Chinese economy are important for the global economy," said Florian Ielpo, Head of Macroeconomic Research at Unigestion.

The MSCI World Equity Index, which tracks stocks in 49 countries, has not changed, and the Wall Street futures indicators also indicated modest gains.

Unfortunately, China's success continues to erode tensions between the US and China ahead of scheduled trade talks to renegotiate their agreement signed in January.

US President Donald Trump signed orders to ban Chinese social media WeChat, owned by Chinese tech giant Tencent, and TikTok, starting next month, and imposed sanctions on 11 officials in Hong Kong and China.

US regulators have also recommended that overseas companies listed on US exchanges be subject to US government audits from 2022.

These tensions between the two countries continue to raise concerns regarding the negative impact on trade negotiations. According to investors, any friction could make it difficult for the global economy to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

In addition, uncertainty is escalating, mainly due to the current negotiations in Washington with regards to new stimulus package for the US economy. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Secretary of Treasury Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday that they are ready to resume talks on the aid package.

Just recently, Trump has sought to take matters into his own hands, signing decrees and memoranda on unemployment benefits, student loans, and payroll taxes.

With investors worried that the US economic recovery could lag behind the recovery of other major economies, the dollar's two-year dominance has weakened.

Against other world currencies, the dollar rose 0.3% to 93.620 per US dollar, but still slightly above a two-year low.

"The solutions provided by President Trump in the form of decrees are better than none at all," commented analysts at the MUFG.

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Weakening impact of COVID-19 in the US and positive data on the economy will cause a decline in the dollar's rate again

The situation in the currency market fully reflects the overall picture in the financial markets. The recent economic data from the US, Asia and Europe inspires optimism in investors that economic recovery will be more strong in the second half of the year.

On Monday, data on consumer inflation in China was released, which showed its acceleration amid economic growth after the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. In addition, news that the pressure of the COVID-19 pandemic is easing in America supports demand for shares of companies that have previously experienced significant pressure. The local strengthening of the dollar stopped on this wave. At the end of Monday trading, it rose against the yen and the Swiss franc, tried to rise to the euro, and was also helped by a strong technical overbought of the European currency. However, it declined against commodity and raw material currencies, as well as the pound.

Meanwhile, Increasing demand for risky assets, primarily for US companies ' shares, as well as the high probability of reaching a compromise between the Democratic majority in Congress and Government D. Trump on new measures to support Americans and business will definitely put downward pressure on the dollar. We expect that in the wake of the rally in the stock market, as well as the resumption of the decline in Treasury yields, the US currency rate will start to weaken again. And pairs where the dollar is present will end the consolidation period and resume growth against it.

Another negative moment for the dollar exchange rate on Monday was the publication of data on the number of open vacancies in the labor market (JOLTS). The number of which rose sharply to 5.889 million against 5.371 million. In fact, the indicator demonstrates a positive trend for the second month in a row, the persistence of which will become an important factor in supporting the demand for risky assets with a simultaneous increase in pressure on the US currency rate.

Assessing the overall picture, we believe that we should expect a resumption of the dollar's fall in the currency market this week.

Today, the focus of the markets will be the publication of the economic sentiment index from the ZEW for the euro zone and Germany, as well as the current conditions for Germany. If the values of the indicators do not rise and turn out to be, even if not much, but higher than expected, the euro/dollar pair should be expected to turn upwards with the prospect of exiting the period of consolidation.

In addition, the numbers of manufacturing inflation in America will be presented today. An increase in performance is expected. How can this news affect the dollar rate?

We believe that their growth will not affect the overall dynamics of the dollar exchange rate. On the contrary, they will be perceived by investors as confirmation of the improvement in the situation in the country's economy, which will only strengthen the trend in demand for risky assets with a simultaneous weakening of the dollar.

In the meantime, it is also supported by the factor of growing tensions between Washington and Beijing. We believe that as soon as it weakens, the dollar will decline.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating in anticipation of the publication of data on the economy of Germany and the eurozone, which will be released today. If they turn out to be above expectations, the pair will rush to 1.1900.

The USD/CAD pair remains in a short-term downward trend. A consolidation below 1.3335 on the wave of continued growth in oil prices will be the basis for a fall in prices first to 1.3235, and then to 1.3200.

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Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 08/11/20

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The EUR/USD currency pair followed the trail of the pound sterling changing the direction of trend lines 1, 2 and 3 with upward inclination to the horizontal, 4,5 and 6. This change calls into question the long-running channel up where it is possible to dramatically change direction from upward to downward in case of breaking of the horizontal line No. 6.

Until line number 6 (area 1.1700) is broken, price fluctuations should be considered within the price range 1.1700 // 1.1810 // 1.1910 (6 + 5 + 4, lines).

Based on the above, it is worth considering several possible market development scenarios:

First, a rebound from line #6.

In this case, we consider a price rebound from line 6 (area 1.1700) towards line 5 (area 1.1810). The entry point for a buy position is considered higher than 1.1780.

Second, hold the upward move.

In this case, the scenario proceeds from the first option, where a rebound from line 6 leads to an increase in the volume of buyers, which leads to a breakdown of line 5 and directs the quote towards line 4 (area 1.1910). The entry point to a buy position is considered if the price is consolidated above 1.1825.

Third, a breakdown of line #6.

In this case, the downward move set two days earlier is held on the market, as a result of which line No. 6 (area 1.1700) is broken through, and the quote is directed towards the values of 1.1650 - 1.1600 - 1.1550, thereby changing the direction of the market. The entry point for a sell position is considered below the level of 1.1690.

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The GBP/USD currency pair continues to follow within the sideways channel, lines 4, 5 and 6 (1.2985 // 1.3080 // 1.3185), where the last day was expressed in price fluctuations along line 5, with an amplitude of 40-50 points.

The situation for the pound sterling is the same as for the European currency. The long-term ascending channel (1 + 2 + 3 - lines) has changed to a sideways channel (lines 4 + 5 + 6), work is primarily done within the range 1.2985 // 1.3080 // 1.3185, but already in case of approaching lines 4 and 6, a breakout tactic is considered.

Based on the foregoing, it can be assumed that the 1.3060 / 1.3100 amplitude along line No. 6 will not last long, the tactics of working within the range (4 + 5 + 6) is relevant.

Buy positions are considered above 1.3105, towards 1.3145-1.3180.

Sell positions are considered below 1.3060, towards 1.3025-1.2985.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 11, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

KEB Hana Bank, one of South Korea's largest commercial banks, has entered into an agreement with the state-backed highway operator, Korea Expressway Corporation, to introduce a blockchain-based toll system on national highways.

According to D Daily, the project is to start before the end of the year. The system will connect the KEB Hana smartphone banking app, Hana One Q, allowing drivers to make payments, postpone them and even receive toll refunds.

The report found that both parties involved in the agreement reached to implement the blockchain solution are seeking to remove cash or credit card payments, in part because of the COVID-19 pandemic, which encourages them to offer contactless solutions.

Korea Expressway Corporation and KEB Hana Bank want to use blockchain to share data to strengthen synergies with the payment system design. Kwang-Ho Lee, head of sales at Korea Expressway Corporation, commented on the report:

"We will continue to expand personalized non-face-to-face (contactless) services to society using blockchain technology, which is part of the Korean version of the new digital contracts policy to lead the global economy after the coronavirus."

The Ministry of Science and ICT and the Korean Internet and Security Agency approved the agreement. Last year, KEB Hana also received an award for its mobile electronic blockchain verification program from the same agencies.

The South Korean government recently revealed its intention to invest over $ 48.2 billion in blockchain and other Industry 4.0 technologies by 2025. The state's goal is to promote the digitization of all industries in the coming post-pandemic era.

Technical Market Outlook:

After the ETH/USD pair had bounced from the level of $362.30, the bulls has pushed the price up towards the yearly high located at the level of $414.11, but did not make it yet. The momentum has increased and is back in positive territory, so the bulls are still in charge of the market, but the price is still trading inside of the range seen between the levels of $355.34 - $407.03 as the volatility dries up. In a case of a breakout higher, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $450. The key short-term support is still located at the level of $323.87- $323.85. The weekly time frame trend is still up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $458.63

WR2 - $430.13

WR1 - $411.58

Weekly Pivot - $386.08

WS1 - $366.85

WS2 - $340.34

WS3 - $321.13

Trading Recommendations:

Due to the violation of the level of $351, Ethereum is now in the up trend on the long-term time frame. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $500. The key long-term technical support is located at the level of $86.10, but the zone around $300 - $308 is an important technical support as well.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 11, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Facial recognition can help prevent Bitcoin scams such as those that took place on Twitter and YouTube, said Rod Hsu, president and co-founder of the Coincurve virtual currency platform.

Hsu said Bitcoin is an electronic form of currency that is irreversible and somewhat anonymous, "coupled with this vulnerability makes it attractive to fraudsters." Due to the negative publicity the cryptocurrency has gained from the scams, it may have deterred many from adopting it.

"Therefore, people may see fraud and Bitcoin as synonyms. In the case of traditional payment methods or Bitcoin, it is the individual who needs to understand the situation and determine its legitimacy. We hope that thanks to greater public awareness of these programs and education about Bitcoin, we'll be able to separate these negative associations. "

Hsu believes that facial recognition is one possible way to eliminate Bitcoin scams as it is much more difficult to implement. He adds that such a system is based on biometrics, which is "much more advanced than a simple photo":

"We have seen a simplified version of facial recognition where the consumer not only provides his identification but also performs a live inspection that covers different angles of the person's profile. This creates additional difficulties if someone tries to use someone else's payment instrument."

Hsu added that facial recognition is a good tool to re-authenticate a person after initial verification, "balancing the goal of better user experience while minimizing fraud."

However, Coincurve co-founder cautions systems like facial recognition should have ethics in mind when verifying:

"I think the ethics of facial recognition comes down to consent and security. Consent requires that the user must know and control how the data is stored, shared, used and accessed, and must be able to remove it at any time. In terms of security, this is about how data is stored and how security protocols are implemented. These requirements may also vary according to the age of the user. "

Services must take these considerations into account when using new technologies such as facial recognition, as implementation will affect many layers of the service, from "user experience to system architecture and security."

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the level of $11,400 after big Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made. The momentum has increased and is back in positive territory, so the bulls are still in charge of the market, but no new high was made yet. In a case of a breakout above the level of $12,035, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $12,269. The key short-term support is still located at the level of $10,940 - $10,890. The weekly time frame trend is still up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $12,981

WR2 - $12,405

WR1 - $12,075

Weekly Pivot - $11,487

WS1 - $11,099

WS2 - $10,537

WS3 - $10,124

Trading Recommendations:

Due to the level of $12,000 violation, the Bitcoin is now in the up trend on the long-term time frame. The next key target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712 and $15,000. The key long-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897, but the zone around $9,500 - $10,500 is an important technical support as well.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for August 11, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has fell out of the main ascending channel and made a new local low at the level of 1.1723. Any violation of this level will only deepen the correction towards the next key technical support seen at the level of 1.1655. The momentum is below the fifty level already and the market is coming off the overbought conditions as well, so odds for another wave down are quite high. The nearest technical resistance is seen between the levels of 1.1790 - 1.1813. The weekly time frame trend is still up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2109

WR2 - 1.2010

WR1 - 1.1819

Weekly Pivot - 1.1788

WS1 - 1.1633

WS2 - 1.1672

WS3 - 1.1572

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair confirmed the up trend, so all pull-backs and corrections should be used to accumulate the EUR. The next targets in the long-term are seen at the levels of 1.2000 - 1.2089. There is no indication of any bigger correction to come, so all the dips should be bought until the level of 1.1347 is clearly violated.

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AUD/USD. Lockdown in Victoria will do aussie a disservice

The AUD/USD pair is stuck in a flat against the backdrop of a half-empty economic calendar, trading within the 71st figure. The aussie finally settled above the resistance level of 0.7000 at the end of July, which now acts as a fairly powerful support. But all attempts to develop a further upward trend failed: the 72nd price level was too tough for the pair's bulls. As a result, the price is forced to drift in a fairly narrow price range in anticipation of the next information driver.

Here it is worth noting that the US currency is in a similar position. The dollar index can not determine the vector of its movement against the background of a contradictory fundamental picture, trading within the 93rd figure (to be more precise, in the 93.3-93.6 range). The executive orders signed by US President Donald Trump on the allocation of financial assistance to unemployed Americans did not support the dollar – on the contrary, a political scandal broke out around this event, as the head of the White House was accused of exceeding his powers.

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The greenback was under pressure, but US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin rushed to help the dollar bulls, who assured the public that negotiations in Congress were continuing and the parties could come to a compromise solution this week. This rhetoric made it possible for the dollar to partially regain its lost ground. However, Mnuchin did not become a catalyst for the large-scale growth of the greenback throughout the market. The congressmen did not share the optimism of the finance minister - none of them (neither from the Democrats, nor from the Republicans) reported that the negotiators had made any progress. Apparently, talks have really reached a dead end, while Trump with his decrees (which are very dubious from a legal point of view) only aggravated the situation. That is why the US dollar was unable to develop an upward movement during today's Asian session. This fact affected the major dollar pairs, and the AUD/USD pair was no exception. Now the aussie is approaching the borders of the 72nd figure within the framework of corrective growth. Buyers of AUD/USD can even test the 0.7200 mark - but they are unlikely to be able to gain a foothold above this target.

However, quite important macroeconomic data will be published this week, which can serve as a trigger - either for AUD/USD bulls or for bears. So, the key indicators of U.S. inflation will be published tomorrow, and after that a key growth indicators of the Australian labour market on Thursday. In anticipation of these releases, the pair's traders are unlikely to open large positions, only if political force majeure does not make its own adjustments.

According to general forecasts, US inflation will show a good, but more modest result relative to June. In July, the overall consumer price index in monthly terms should slow its growth to 0.3% (compared to 0.6% in June). In annual terms, the indicator should rise to 0.8% (in June, an increase of up to 0.6% was recorded). As for core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, it is also projected to have vague dynamics – slower growth on an annual basis (1.1%) and a slight increase relative to June on a monthly basis (0.3%). As you can see, experts predict fairly modest dynamics. If the real numbers turn out to be weaker than the very weak forecasts, the dollar will be under significant pressure, and buyers of the AUD/USD pair will have a reason for another assault on the 72nd figure.

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The situation with the Australian labor market is more complicated. A negative trend is expected here, primarily due to the situation in Victoria, the largest state of Australia, where an outbreak of coronavirus was recorded. In this region, quarantine restrictions have been significantly tightened, and a curfew was even imposed in the five million city of Melbourne. Against the backdrop of these events, representatives of the Reserve Bank of Australia revised downward their forecasts for the labor market - for example, in their opinion, by the end of the year the unemployment rate in the country will rise by 10%.

The data for July will be published tomorrow. The published figures should already reflect the impact of the local lockdown in Victoria. According to general forecasts, the unemployment rate should rise to 7.8% (from 7.4% in June), and the growth in the number of employed persons may slow down to 30,000 (this figure came out at the 210,000 level in June). And here it is also necessary to analyze the data structure of the components. If this figure rises again only due to part-time employment, the Australian dollar will fall under a wave of sales. The increase in part-time employment while full employment is declining is a bad sign, which may subsequently affect the consumer activity of Australians, and, ultimately, inflationary processes. RBA Governor Philip Lowe and his deputy, Lucy Ellis, have repeatedly focused their attention on this aspect.

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Thus, longs on the AUD/USD pair look risky: according to some estimates, the Australian labor market will show a more deplorable result the day after tomorrow, given the coronavirus crisis in the 6.5 million state of Australia. In their opinion, the economic consequences of the tightening of quarantine will not only be at the local level: for example, problems have arisen with the supply chain far beyond the state of Victoria, since the largest container port in the country is located in this region.

All this suggests that now more or less large-scale growth of the aussie should be considered as a reason for opening short positions. The target of the downward pullback is 0.7120 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart) and 0.7080 (Kijun-sen line on the same timeframe).

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for August 11, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been seen trading in narrow intraday range after the bears has hit the level of 1.3008 and then the bulls has pushed the rate back towards the level of 1.3067. The range has been located between the levels of 1.3047 - 1.3100 as the volatility dries up. The key technical support is seen at the level of 1.2979, so as long as the market trades above it, the odds for another wave up are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3353

WR2 - 1.3261

WR1 - 1.3146

Weekly Pivot - 1.3060

WS1 - 1.2937

WS2 - 1.2860

WS3 - 1.2735

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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Analysis and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the EUR/USD pair on August 11? Plan for opening and closing deals

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR USD pair did not continue its strong downward movement at night trading on Tuesday. However, the same night also started an upward movement, which may be a simple upward pullback. Unfortunately, at this time, novice traders do not have a trend line or a trend channel that can help determine the trend. On the other hand, if these technical patterns do not exist, then there is no trend at this time. Thus, for the time being, we do not expect the pair's quotes to move further down below the 1.1696 level. In general, the side channel is already being viewed, if not flat, then just limited by the levels of 1.1903 and 1.1696, marked in the illustration. Thus, we are waiting for a new approach to reach the 1.1696 level on Tuesday, and then we will see after that.

The European Union and America do not have any important macroeconomic releases on Tuesday, August 11. Thus, the tone of trading is not likely to change today. Yesterday's volatility (the number of points passed from the high to the low) was at 66 points, which is lower than the average in recent months (usually the pair passes 90-100 points a day). Therefore, the activity of traders leaves much to be desired. Traders do not have anything to pay attention to when it comes to fundamental topics, since all the most important are of a general nature, which does not momentarily affect the pair. We would say that now the future of the pair depends more on overcoming or not overcoming the 1.1696 level. After all, in fact, even the upward trend has not yet been broken. The illustration clearly shows that the previous fall from 1,1903 to 1,1696 (that is, by two hundred points) was replaced by a rise back to 1.1903 the next day. In other words, bears are not dominating the market right now. This means that the fundamental background does not support the US dollar, which cannot show strong growth even after a three-month fall. Accordingly, you need to wait. You need to wait for changes in the fundamental background, or in the mood of traders, or macroeconomic data.

The following scenarios are possible on August 11:

1) Buying the pair is still not relevant, since the price left the ascending channel and was unable to overcome the 1.1903 level. There are no technical structures like trend lines, channels or other patterns supporting an upward trend. Thus, we believe that it is not advisable to trade up at the moment.

2) Selling the currency pair is still more promising now. At the moment, the pair is correcting, which was signaled by the MACD indicator, once again turning up. Therefore, now we propose to wait for the completion of this correction and a signal from the same MACD to sell. In this case, we recommend reopening sell orders with targets at 1.1714 and 1.1696 on Tuesday. There are just about 60 points left to the final goal, so it can be reached today. Then everything will depend on whether traders will be able to go below this level.

What's on the chart:

Support and Resistance Price Levels - Levels that are targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines - channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction it is preferable to trade now.

Arrows up/down - indicate when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.

MACD indicator is a histogram and a signal line, the crossing of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners in the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for August 11, 2020

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GBP/JPY tested support at 137.83 but failed to develop another rally towards resistance at 139.21. Ultimately we expect this resistance to be broken for a continuation higher towards 140.35. This new spike higher at 140.35 should complete blue wave iii and set the stage for a sideways consolidation. The pair may dip to 137.92 before the next push higher towards 144.29 and ultimately a continuation higher to 148.32 occur.

Support is now seen at 138.33 and the next one is at the 137.83 level.

R3: 140.35

R2: 140.00

R1: 139.55

Pivot: 139.21

S1: 138.64

S2: 138.33

S3: 137.83

Trading recommendation:

We will take profit on 50% of our long GBP position at 140.25.

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INDU price movement, August 11, 2020.

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INDU is now rising as the price is moving to an up slope channel and above the moving average. INDU is trying to reach the 28.075 level. if bullish momentum is strong, it is likely to hit the 29.127 level. Please pay attention to the 26008.7 level. If it breaks through this level and the price closes bellow that level, then the current scenario will be automatically canceled. Beware the Divergence from the MACD Oscillator.

The overall bias for #INDU is bullish.

(Disclaimer)

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 11, 2020

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Wave iv continues to unfold as expected. The first leg lower is completed. We are likely to see a minor bounce to 124.90 - 125.00 before the next push lower to the ideal corrective target at 123.78 to complete wave iv and set the stage for the next impulsive rally higher towards 127.23 on the way towards the ideal target at 129.26.

Resistance is now seen at 124.90 and then at 125.19.

R3: 125.59

R2: 125.19

R1: 124.90

Pivot: 124.59

S1: 124.27

S2: 123.92

S3: 123.78

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 123.85 or upon a break above 125.43

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Gold Price Movement On August 11, 2020

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After gold broke out and closed bellow the 2,049 level, it is trying to move down to reach the 2,003.93 and 1,993.96 levels. This retrace will automatically cancel if the price of this asset returns to the previous rise above the 2074.75 level.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 11, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro is slowly moving towards its target at 1.1620 (high on October 16, 2018). The Marlin oscillator is declining, remaining in the positive trend zone. As the price moves below the target level of 1.1620, Marlin will obviously already be in a negative, that is, a downward trend. As a result, we are waiting for the new downward movement to strengthen in a new emerging trend. After the price leaves the area below 1.1620, the second target at 1.1490 will open, where the price can meet the MACD line.

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The decline is taking its course on the four-hour chart; the price is below the balance indicator lines (the balance has strengthened in a downward direction), the MACD line is moving down, that is, the medium-term trend has changed to a downward one. Marlin is also slowly deepening into the zone of negative values, into the zone of the bears' possession.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on August 11, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar slightly fell on Monday, by only eight points, but the upper shadow did not reach the July 22 peak by just a point, in the area of which our 0.7190 level was located, which became another sign of the market's mood to continue moving down.

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Now the aussie is facing the 0.7070 target - extremes on August 3 and June 10. The price at this level will probably also meet the MACD line on the daily scale. Also at the same time, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator will struggle with the border separating the growth zone from the decline zone. Thus, the 0.7070 level acquires strategic importance. After the price consolidations, a medium-term downward trend opens below it with the first target at 0.6975.

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The price has consolidated below the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone, the general trend on this scale is decreasing.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on August 11, 2020

USD/JPY

The dollar slightly rose against the yen on Monday, but now the price is already attacking yesterday's high during the Asian session. The Marlin oscillator is attacking the border of the positive trend territory, now the market is aiming for 106.80 - the price channel line of the higher timeframe. Achieving this goal will automatically lead to overcoming the MACD line. Consolidating the price above it opens the possibility of growth towards the targets of 107.00, 107.35, 107.90. We expect a deep correction from the 107.90 target, possibly back to 107.00.

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The price is above the indicator lines on a four-hour timescale, and Marlin is settling into bull territory. We are waiting for the price in the target range of 106.60/80.

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In case of unforeseen circumstances, the price will be supported by the MACD line at 105.30 and the daily price channel line at 105.50.

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AUDUSD bounced off support, potential for further upside!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.71426

Reason for Entry: Ascending trend line, horizontal overlap support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement, 61.8% fibonacci extension

Take Profit: 0.72406

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 0.70866

Reason for Stop Loss: Horizontal swing low support

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AUDUSD looking for short term push up above trendline!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 105.891

Reason for Entry: Ascending trendline support, moving average support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 106.177

Reason for Take Profit: Graphical swing high

Stop Loss: 105.720

Reason for Stop Loss: Recent swing low

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on August 11. COT report. Traders ignore more rumors about Brexit.

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair moved almost identical to the European currency on August 10. For the time being. The pound/dollar pair did not sharply jump closer to the end of the trading day, but given the weak volatility on Monday, this rise was enough to block all the downward movement before that. Therefore, the British pound finished the day in positive territory. However, its prospects remain dim, as traders failed to break the 1.3169 level several times. By the way, the prospects for the dollar also remain very vague, due to the fundamental background from the US. Thus, the pair is now in a kind of stupor, since there is not enough reason either to continue growing or to start falling.

GBP/USD 15M

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The lower linear regression channel turned up on Monday on the 15-minute timeframe, showing no downward trend on that day. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report the British pound, which was released on Friday, finally matched what is happening now in the market. Recall that two COT reports previously showed a decrease in the net position of non-commercial traders, which, in fact, means that the bullish mood is weakening. That is, the most important category of "non-commercial" traders reduced (roughly speaking) purchases of the British pound during the previous two weeks and at the same time, the UK currency became more expensive. However, the latest COT report finally showed an increase in the number of Buy-contracts for non-commercial traders, by almost 5,000. At the same time, they also closed Sell-contracts, which were reduced by 3,500. Thus, the total net position for this category increased by 8,500. The pound lost just about 140 points at the end of last week and the beginning of the new week, if you count from the last high. This is very small in the context of COT reports and the concept of a trend. This is not even a correction in the medium term.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair did not change on Monday. However, as recently as last Friday, one of the members of the British government, Michael Gove, gave an interview completely unnoticed, saying that the last round of negotiations with Brussels ended with some progress, which gives hope for the signing of a trade deal in September. What is remarkable is that neither Boris Johnson, nor Michel Barnier, nor David Frost (actually, the chief negotiator from the UK) said anything like this in the media. It is unclear as to where Gove got this information. Moreover, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was due to personally fly to Brussels for talks with top EU officials back in July. It is August 11 today, and the British prime minister has not been to Brussels, and does not speak about this in an interview. Thus, from our point of view, absolutely nothing has changed in this issue and there is no reason for optimism. There are only regular rumors that the European Union is allegedly ready to concede on issues of fishing and European standards. These rumors are not confirmed by anything. Official information - six rounds of negotiations failed, no progress was made on the key four issues.

There are two main options for the development of events on August 11:

1) Buyers continue to dominate the market, only taking a timeout in recent days. They did not manage to gain a foothold above the previous local high of 1.3169, so we recommend opening new purchases of the British currency, but not before breaking the 1.3169 level while aiming for the resistance level of 1.3275. In this case, the potential Take Profit is about 90 points. Formally, longs can be opened after overcoming the Kijun-sen, but we would recommend waiting until the 1.3169 level has been overcome.

2) The bears stayed below the Kijun-sen line with great difficulty. Thus, we can now consider trading downward with the targets at the support level 1.2956 and the Senkou Span B line (1.2919). Potential Take Profit in this case is from 90 to 120 points. However, you should be careful with sales. There are many factors working in favor of starting the fall, but the bears are still very weak. Stop Loss can be placed above Kijun-sen.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on August 11. COT report. We begin to observe a new political scandal

EUR/USD 1H

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The technical picture for the euro/dollar pair has not changed much on the hourly timeframe of August 10. The pair traded slightly below the critical Kijun-sen line throughout the trading day, thus preserving the prospects for further downward movement. There was no downward movement, which is still considered likely and logical, since the pair had been increasing in price for about three months before. However, the quotes failed to get close to the Senkou Span B line, as well as to the support area of 1.1702-1.1727, which are strong obstacles in the way of bears. The prospects of the US currency depend on them.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are directed downward on the 15-minute timeframe, which perfectly reflects what is happening on higher timeframes. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT), released on Friday, showed that the mood of professional traders did not change at all during the last reporting week on July 29-August 4 (we remind you that the report is published with a three-day delay). During this time period, the "non-commercial" category of traders opened 19,354 Buy-contracts and closed 3,561 Sell-contracts. Thus, the net position for the most important category of traders has grown by 23,000 at once, which is a very large and eloquent indication of the current mood of the major players. The most important thing is that the data exactly matches what is happening in the foreign exchange market, since the euro as a whole continued to grow until August 4. The euro did not suffer any losses during the next three trading days of the week. Thus, so far, everything is going to the point that the next COT report will show that non-commercial traders are increasing purchases. In recent days, the pair has lost about 120 points, but this drop is too weak to be reflected in the COT report.

The fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair did not change at all on Monday, as there were no important news or macroeconomic publications during the day. Therefore, there is nothing to analyze. We can only continue to consider global fundamental topics that support or pressure a particular currency in the long term. The main topic is still the coronavirus in the United States. According to the latest information, the number of daily recorded cases of the COVID-2019 virus is becoming less. However, it is too early to talk about the end of the epidemic wave. At the same time, a new political scandal is brewing in the United States, as US President Donald Trump signed several decrees concerning assistance to the American population affected by the coronavirus. He signed it without the approval of the US Congress, which he had no right to do under the law. Now we should expect a response from the Democrats, who can sue the president again or, at least, "dump a truck of stones into his garden" in the form of criticism.

Based on all of the above we have two trading ideas for August 11:

1) Buyers have not managed to overcome the resistance level of 1.1911. They temporarily remain outside of what is happening in the market. To make new purchases of the euro, you need to wait for the price to be consolidated above this level (or the resistance area of 1.1884-1.1910). Then we will recommend buying the pair while aiming for the resistance level of 1.2019. In this case, the potential Take Profit is about 80 points. Although, even when the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen line (1.1817), the bulls may start pressing with the target of the resistance level 1.1902, which you can also try to work out.

2) The bears are using their chances with great difficulty. The fact that they still managed to overcome the Kijun-sen line is good. However, for now they can only anticipate a downward movement to the Senkou Span B line (1.1725), to which there are only a few points left. Thus, we recommend considering new sales of the euro after overcoming the support area of 1.1702-1.1727 with the target of 1.1579. Potential Take Profit in this case is about 80 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCAD reversing from 1st resistance, further drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.3361

Reason for Entry: Horizontal overlap resistance

Take Profit :1.3415

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high

Stop Loss:1.1.3300

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal overlap support

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 11. American media: The United States is on the verge of a constitutional crisis. Instead

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -26.6721

The British pound fixed below the moving average line on Friday. However, it became clear on Monday that the downward movement will not continue, at least for now. The fact is that the pair stood in one place for the entire European session, and in the American session it jumped up. At the same time, there were no objective reasons for another fall in the US currency. More precisely, there were no immediate, point-based reasons that caused the dollar to fall on Monday. In general, the situation continues to be not in favor of the US currency. We have repeatedly written about the "4 American crises", which continue to put strong pressure on the dollar's position. It is so strong that the bears simply do not risk selling the euro/dollar pair now. And what else can you expect from market participants, if even in difficult times for the country, when GDP losses in the second quarter amounted to a record 33%, the government cannot come to a common opinion and agree on the next package of economic assistance? And this is not to mention the measures that should have been taken to stop the spread of the COVID-2019 virus. But no, the US President is concerned only with his political ratings, the Democrats - the issue of waging war against Donald Trump, and the whole world is divided into two camps: the first supports Trump, because he believes that he will successfully destroy America, the second – against Trump, since it is impossible to agree with him at the international level on any issue. So the result is a situation in which the dollar has long been expected to start growing elementary for technical reasons, but instead risks going to a new stage of a long fall.

The most interesting thing is that there is still no important or even interesting news coming from the UK. Only tomorrow and the day after tomorrow will there be some really important macroeconomic reports from the Foggy Albion. The main one is the GDP report for the second quarter. But while the British pound is waiting for news, the US dollar receives it daily. As recently as this weekend, some American publications started talking about a new type of crisis that the United States may face in the near future or rather in the final stage of 2020. Earlier, we have repeatedly written that Donald Trump is unlikely to give up without a fight in the election. If he loses them, he will challenge the results through the courts and try to cancel the results of the vote. During the election itself, he will try to block access to the polls of Americans in those cities where Biden's victory is most likely. Formally, he can even simply refuse to leave the White House, since there is no legal article that would determine the process of the President's resignation at the end of his presidential term. And this is not our speculation, this is what many American media write about. This is what the Americans themselves fear. So, some media outlets started talking this weekend about a full-scale "constitutional crisis" that could begin on November 3 (if Trump loses the election) and end no earlier than January 2021, when Trump will have to leave the White House (if he loses the election). According to American political scientists, the problem of fraud and deception in the elections themselves is not the most serious problem possible. Also, experts are not too afraid that Trump will simply refuse to leave his residence. But the fact that the US President has the full right to use the forces of the national guard, army and other security agencies is really very frightening. Theoretically, Donald Trump can bring all the country's military forces to the streets of US cities to prevent a change of power in the country. Of course, this is one of the most unlikely options, however, what did Trump want to do when rallies and protests began in many cities as part of the "Black Lives Matter" movement? That's right, to suppress rallies with the help of the regular army, which shocked absolutely all politicians and the Pentagon. Thus, there are no prohibited techniques for Trump. At any moment, he might unearth a law from 1812 that no other President would have thought of using. Experts also fear that Trump will try to transfer federal funds to his companies, pardon a number of individuals, including himself, thus protecting himself from possible future proceedings related to his activities during the presidential term. Experts also fear that Trump may go on principle and refuse to hand over many important files to Biden, simply destroying them. Roughly speaking, Trump can leave an unsightly legacy behind to criticize President Biden in the future. In general, the end of 2020 will definitely be fun, at least for America.

On Tuesday, the UK will publish data on average wages, applications for unemployment benefits, and the unemployment rate for June or July. According to experts' forecasts, it is not worth waiting for good data on wages. Both with and without bonuses, a reduction is expected. The unemployment rate may rise from 3.9% to 4.2% in June, and the number of applications for benefits will increase by 5-10 thousand. Thus, all three reports may be quite weak. However, will this help the US currency? No important planned information is expected from overseas. However, what is happening in America now gives us guarantees of getting important and interesting data almost every day. And about the nature of this data, you can not even talk. With a 99% probability, they will be negative for the US currency. Thus, the US dollar may start falling again against the weak British pound. With this solely because of its own "issuer". Not the Fed, but the US, whose government continues to completely fail 2020.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to remain stable and is currently 107 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Tuesday, August 11, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2969 and 1.3183. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator downward will indicate a possible resumption of the downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3062

S2 – 1.3000

S3 – 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3123

R2 – 1.3184

R3 – 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe began a round of upward correction, which may end with the resumption of the upward trend. Thus, today it is recommended to open short positions with the goals of 1.3000 and 1.2969, if the price is again fixed below the moving average. Buy orders are recommended to be considered with the goals of 1.3123 and 1.3158, if the pair remains above the moving average line, and the Heiken Ashi indicator will color the bars purple.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 11. Trump makes a political "horse move". Will there be a result? Democrats may soon

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -103.0492

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its rather weak downward movement on Monday, breaking the moving average line on Friday. Thus, for now, the new downward trend continues, however, it still looks somewhat uncertain. Bears are clearly afraid of serious purchases of the US currency while the "coronavirus", economic and political crises continue to rage in theUnited States themselves. Thus, despite the fact that the strengthening of the dollar has been brewing for a long time, it is likely that the bulls will soon return to the market, which will lead to a new round of growth of the European currency. At the moment, the pair's quotes have not even managed to work out the previous local minimum. Trading on the first trading day of the week was quite boring and low-volatility. There were no macroeconomic statistics scheduled for this day in either the European Union or the United States.

But there was news of a political nature, just what America has been missing since the time when Trump became President. Last weekend, it became known that Donald Trump signed executive orders that provide financial assistance to the American population affected by the pandemic. At first glance, what's so strange about this news? But this is only at first glance. In fact, Trump went against the US Congress. Any resolution, law, or decree must be approved by a majority vote of Congress before being signed by the President. Thus, the documents signed by Trump have no legal force. In this way, the President of the United States can sign any regulations and laws that he wants every day, and in January 2021, he can simply re-appoint himself President and refuse to leave the White House in the event of an election defeat. However, this is only one side of the coin. The most interesting thing is that one of Trump's executive orders involves paying Americans who lost their jobs due to the "coronavirus", bonuses to unemployment benefits in the amount of $ 400 a week. It was around these "coronavirus allowances" that the debate between Democrats and Republicans was going on. Democrats insisted on keeping $ 600 a week, and Republicans wanted to reduce it to $ 200, since for many Americans, the total benefits payments exceeded wages, which completely deprived them of motivation to look for a new job. The disputes went on for several weeks, however, the parties failed to reach a compromise. However, the last proposal of the Democrats suggested lowering the volume of the package of assistance to the American economy by 1 trillion dollars (which meant reducing the amount of payments to Americans), if the Republicans also raised their offer by 1 trillion. By and large, in this case, the parties could agree on about 2 trillion aid packages. However, instead, Trump rejected such a proposal and signed an executive order that implies not only an increase in "coronavirus allowances" (relative to the original proposal of the Republicans), but also a tax holiday on income tax for all Americans whose earnings are less than $ 100,000 a year. According to experts, more than 90% of Americans fall into this category. In fact, for them, Trump canceled income tax before the end of the year and promised new tax breaks if he is re-elected President. It is unclear how Trump is going to fill the budget if taxes are not paid by almost all US citizens. The national debt is already inflated to 26 trillion dollars, and by the end of the year it may reach 30 trillion. However, most of all, what will the Democrats do now? After all, in fact, Trump's rulings can easily be overturned through the courts, since Congress did not approve them. Yes, it will take some time to consider this case, however, there is little doubt that the outcome will be successful for the Democrats. We believe that with this step, Trump wanted, as usual, to increase his political ratings, "taking care of the American population, which is waiting for help now" (a few weeks ago, "coronavirus payments" were stopped, as the previous package of assistance to the economy banally ended). Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer immediately accused Trump of trying to distract the attention of the electorate from his own failed policies during the pandemic.

Well, while Donald Trump is at war with the Democrats and waiting for their response, China has imposed retaliatory sanctions against the United States. Under them were 11 officials from America. Beijing said that the return of Hong Kong to China was met with universal approval, and Hong Kongers themselves received a number of unprecedented rights. There was no other news on the first trading day of the week.

On Tuesday, August 11, the European Union will release several secondary reports that are unlikely to interest traders. We are talking about the indices of economic sentiment in Germany and the EU from the ZEW Institute. In the United States, no publications are planned for today, but at the same time, new data on the confrontation between Democrats and Republicans may be received. The US President gave the opportunity to start a new trial against himself, and accuse himself once again of abuse of power. The US dollar is still very indirectly related to this information. He is more interested in data on the "coronavirus" epidemic. There are certain positive aspects here, as the number of people infected daily has decreased by about 10-15 thousand. At the same time, we cannot say that the pandemic has receded.

From a technical point of view, the downward movement can continue, however, it can also be interrupted at any time, since the bears are extremely weak at the moment. In some ways, we are again faced with a paradoxical situation, since the euro currency grew for almost three months (with small interruptions) and managed to add about 12 cents. Thus, there should be a correction now, however, buyers do not close long positions, and sellers do not open short ones. All this leads so far to a sluggish decline in quotes.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of August 11 is 97 points and is characterized as "high". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1654 and 1.1848. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will signal a round of upward correction within the now downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1597

S3 – 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1841

R2 – 1.1963

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair may have started a new downtrend, breaking the moving average. Thus, at this time, it is recommended to sell the currency pair with the goals of 1.1719 and 1.1654 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upward. It is now recommended to open buy orders no earlier than the pair is re-anchored above the moving average line with the first targets of 1.1911 (the previous local maximum) and 1.1963.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com