AUD/JPY broke above descending trendline resistance. What next?

analytics5e6b4428c0d2e.jpg

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 66.382

Reason for Entry: Ascending trendline support, Descending trendline support

Take Profit : 68.912

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 65.207

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing low, 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CHF facing bearish pressure from resistance, potential for further drop!

analytics5e6b43446748b.jpg

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.95458

Reason for Entry: Horizontal overlap resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement, 1.618 Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 0.93288

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 0.96172

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal pullback resistance, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gas' third wave

analytics5e6b4107adf0d.jpg

Good day, dear traders! I present to your attention, a trading idea for natural gas (NG).

Natural gas has been trading at its historical lows recently. This week, it reached $ 1.6, which is an absolute record in recent decades.

analytics5e6b3f007f8f4.jpg

The wave of gas sales coincided with the decline in oil prices.

Nevertheless, a fairly strong rebound from $ 1.6 occurred, which can be considered as the first wave of purchases in the classic three-wave ABC technical analysis:

analytics5e6b3f7650a24.jpg

The acceleration of gas can invigorate Europe.

The target point for TP is $ 2.

Good luck in trading and control your risks!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP/USD on March 13, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, it is possible to move up to test the retracement level of 14.6% equivalent to 1.2640 (blue dashed line). If this level is reached, the continuation of the upward movemnet is with the target of 1.2733, a retracement level of 23.6% (blue dashed line).

analytics5e6b40683a1cb.jpg

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price can roll back up.

An unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.2580 (closing of yesterday's candle) work down with the target at the lower fractal 1.2491 (red dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR/USD on March 13, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the continuation of the downward movement is possible with another attempt to break through the retracement level of 61.8% equivalent to 1.1053 (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this level, the continuation of the upward movement is with the first target at the 21 average EMA of 1.1119 (black thin line).

analytics5e6b373f5b66c.jpg

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

Today, from the retracement level of 23.6% equivalent to 1.1198 (red dotted line) the price can start moving down with the first target at the lower fractal 1.1056 (blue bold line).

An unlikely scenario: from level 1.1170 (closing of the Thursday afternoon candle), work up with the target at the upper fractal 1.1335.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY approaching resistance, potential drop!

analytics5e6b401f6e616.jpg

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 106.875

Reason for Entry: 78% Fibonacci extension, 50% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 104.603

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal pullback support

Stop Loss: 103.123

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing low support

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Chaos in the markets will only stop if coronavirus will also stop spreading (EUR/USD pair and the price of gold is likely

The situation around the coronavirus remains the focus of global markets. An official announcement by the World Health Organization (WHO) on Wednesday regarding the pandemic led to a new collapse in the global markets on Thursday.

The panic in the stock markets, as well as commodities on Thursday, was supported by the growth of volatility in the currency market, where, unexpectedly and, one might even say, the US dollar began to be in demand unconventionally for the past 11 years. At the end of Thursday, all major currencies declined against the US currency. What is characteristic is that even traditional safe haven currencies, which have been in demand over the past decade in the wake of the weakness of the dollar due to cuts in interest rates by the Federal Reserve and large-scale stimulus measures, have come under strong pressure, indicating serious turmoil among investors on the market. Historically, the American dollar was in demand precisely in such situations since the twentieth century.

The reason for the collapse before was the decision of US President D. Trump to unilaterally close the opportunity for foreigners to visit America with the exception of Great Britain.

However, against the discouraging issue of the coronavirus, markets have stopped paying attention to incoming economic statistics and even to emergency measures from the world's largest Central Banks. On Thursday, investors first positively received the news from the Fed, which announced that it would conduct three repos as part of an expansion of its program to help support liquidity in the US financial market, but Trump's tweet simply "killed" these optimism germs. In addition, the markets missed the news from the ECB, which announced that it would stimulate the region's economy by $ 120 billion a month until the end of this year, although it did not change interest rates.

In general, evaluating the current mood of investors in the markets, which are combined with the dynamics of the net positions of COT, we can say that the dynamics of the markets will fully depend on the news on the spread of coronavirus in the world. If this misfortune is not stopped in the near future, as it was possible to do in China and Russia, then markets will face a new upsetting event.

Forecast of the day:

EUR/USD is trading below the level of 1.1230. We believe that if the price does not rise above this level, it will continue to decline locally to the level of 1.1000.

Spot gold is trading below the level of 1592.70. We can expect resumption of its decline if the price does not overcome this level. In this case, the price will resume to decline to the level of 1545.75.

analytics5e6b3144c5ad9.jpg

analytics5e6b315e82b2f.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Evening EURUSD review: Coronavirus: Very negative news from Europe

Britain says the country is abandoning attempts to isolate itself from the virus. The British believe that up to 10 thousand people can be infected. Johnson: "Many families can lose someone's life due to virus"

Germany: up to 3,000 infected. Merkel - we cannot isolate ourselves from the virus.

UEFA - cancels European Championship 2020 (reschedules for a year?)

NHL - stops the championship.

EURUSD - sharp fall to 1.1055 - then rise to 1.1200.

We were knocked out at breakeven, for the moment without positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 13/03/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Adam Kokesh, the first libertarian presidential race candidate in the US in 2020, appointed Alastair Caithness as his chief policy adviser on Blockchain. The purpose of this role will be to work on developing a sovereign cryptocurrency known as AmeriCoin.

Further, Caithness will focus on developing cryptocurrency associated with all federal government assets. These include significant resources of US government land, energy, gold, wood and minerals, reports the Associated Press.

Kokesh aims to create a new decentralized monetary system based on AmeriCoin. Citizens will receive universal basic income and compensation for existing government tax policies through AmeriCoin. According to the candidate, institutional inequalities such as these prevent citizens from achieving their own vision of success in American society or the so-called American Dream.

The professional origin of Caithness is marked by the development of the oil and gas security token called ZiyenCoin, which focuses on the development of Blockchain and Internet of Things in the oil sector.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair broke out of the main channel and made a new swing low at the level of $89.01 and there is no sign of the downtrend reversal despite the oversold market conditions. The bulls are trying to bounce higher towards the level of $134.12 where the lower channel line is as well and maybe they will be able to make a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $76.89 and this is the multi-year low for Ethereum.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $280.41

WR2 - $266.81

WR1 - $233.00

Weekly Pivot - $218.78

WS1 - $185.21

WS2 - $170.40

WS3 - $159.54

Trading Recommendations:

All the Elliott Wave based impulsive wave scenarios have been invalidated due to the important levels violation. The fear of the coronavirus consequences is too strong to traders and it rules on the financial markets, so it is better to stay away from the trading platform until the dust settles. Trade safe.

analytics5e6b2fbfe5bda.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 13/03/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Kirill Victorowicz Firsow, the alleged owner of the Russian anonymous portal Deer.io, was arrested on March 7 by agents of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) at John F. Kennedy Airport in New York.

Court documents claim that Firsov is the brains of Deer.io - a site offering darknet style services in exchange for Bitcoins in the ordinary network. The FBI estimates it has allowed sales worth over $ 17 million.

Firsov will be brought to court in a New York court this week, where he is expected to be prosecuted for trafficking in stolen information and trafficking in human beings.

Since 2013, Deer.io has hosted 24,000 active stores specializing in stolen information, offering a simple "turn-key" solution for black market entrepreneurs.

Sellers paid about 800 Russian rubles ($ 12.50) for operating on Deer.io each month, and hosting was offered on private Russian servers outside the reach of the US authorities.

Fees for Firsov were paid in Bitcoins or via the Russian payment platform WebMoney. Of the 250 Deer.io stores inspected by the FBI so far, no company dealt with legal goods. Products for sale on the platform included user passwords, fake social media accounts, and confidential identity data such as birth certificates and tax returns.

During its investigations, the FBI made several purchases using the Deer platform, including 999 documents containing personal data (PII) from one supplier for $170. For $522 they obtained a set of 2,650 documents from another provider, and for $20, the FBI was able to collect usernames and passwords for 1,100 attacked gaming accounts.

Deer.io gained importance as an underground market specializing in stolen goods in 2016 after the infamous hacker Tessa88 used the platform to sell sensitive data hacked from LinkedIn and MySpace social networks.

Technical Market Overview:

The total carnage at the Bitcoin market is an excellent example of crowd psychology during the global pandemic - coronavirus fears. All the moves down were very dynamic and no technical support was able to stop the bears. The recent low was made on the level of $3,940, so now the narrow zone located between the levels of $5,500 - $5,733 will act as a key short-term technical resistance zone. The next support is seen at the level of $3,474. All the weekly pivot points have been broken already as well.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,697

WR2 - $9,419

WR1 - $8,697

Weekly Pivot - $8,456

WS1 - $7,720

WS2 - $7,436

WS3 - $6,712

Trading Recommendations:

All the Elliott Wave based impulsive wave scenarios have been invalidated due to the important levels violation. The fear of the coronavirus consequences is too strong to traders and it rules on the financial markets, so it is better to stay away from the trading platform until the dust settles. Trade safe.

analytics5e6b2dc7045c7.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 13/03/2020:

Technical Market Overview:

Another lower low was made overnight at the level of 1.2504 as the coronavirus pandemic continues. The market is trading out of the descending channel in extremely oversold conditions on the H4 timeframe, so some kind of bounce is possible. The overall corrective cycle had been very aggressive so far and the recent breakout from the main channel (marked in brown) does not look good for bulls. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2580 and 1.2705. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 1.2504 and in a case of a down move extension, the next support is located at the level of 1.2411.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3258

WR2 - 1.3289

WR1 - 1.3204

Weekly Pivot - 1.2969

WS1 - 1.2881

WS2 - 1.2656

WS3 - 1.2581

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is up, so all downward market moves will be treated as local corrections in the uptrend. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3512.

analytics5e6b2b651a93d.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 13/03/2020:

Technical Market Overview:

The coronavirus fears are still spreading across the financial markets despite the temporary stillness and the EUR/USD pair has broken through all of the internal Fibonacci retracements and technical support levels. The bears have managed to hit the level of 1.1065 which is the key short-term support level. The Pin Bar candlestick pattern made after that move down is indicating a bullish activity. In that case, the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1199 and 1.1232. Please notice, the market conditions are now become oversold at the H4 timeframe.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1782

WR2 - 1.1563

WR1 - 1.1471

Weekly Pivot - 1.1255

WS1 - 1.1146

WS2 - 1.0916

WS3 - 1.0820

Trading Recommendations:

The downtrend was valid as long as it was terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated, so now all upward moves will not be treated as local corrections in the downtrend, but as a new uptrend. The Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larger timeframes like weekly has been completed and the EUR/USD is developing a new wave up.

analytics5e6b2a7fc1264.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 13. Pound looks straight down. Breakout of 1.2520 will only strengthen the

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Buyers of the pound clearly retreated from the market after the Bank of England's recent decision to lower interest rates and provide significant support to the economy. A small rebound from the 1.2522 area, which I paid attention to yesterday in my review, led only to a correction, which is now limited to the resistance of 1.2605. Buyers will solely focus their attention on this level in the first half of the day. Its breaks with consolidation above will resume the pound's growth and will allow you to update the areas of 1.2686 and 1.2744, where I recommend taking profits, since this is where the moving averages pass. In the scenario of a further fall in GBP/USD, it is best to return to long positions on the test of the lows of 1.2417, 1.2385 and 1.2353, and the lower the better.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers face a simpler task to break through and consolidate below the 1.2522 support, from which the pound bounced up yesterday after a major drop inside the day. This will allow us to continue the bearish trend and achieve the update of new lows in the area of 1.2417 and 1.2353, where I recommend taking profits. However, a better time to open short positions will be when a false breakout forms in the resistance area of 1.2605, while GBP/USD can immediately be sold on the rebound from the highs of 1.2686 and 1.2744. Given that important fundamental statistics on the UK economy are not released today, the volatility of the pound will also depend on news about the negotiations between the UK and the EU, which have taken a back seat to the threat of the spread of the coronavirus.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates a continuation of the bearish trend.

Bollinger bands

In the event of a decline, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2482. In case of an upward correction, growth will be limited in the region of the upper boundary in the area of 1.2686, from where you can sell the pound immediately for a rebound.

XVVw_GV1bBCt-pbyU5w_dGe93UUX7TwqajuBNfVu

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 13, 2020.

analytics5e6b205f870fd.jpg

Because the US market has technically moved into a bearish state, the S&P 500 chart declined by 9%. I actually had to stop trading because the decline was too fast. Nevertheless, the situation is not considered a big crisis yet, although it looks very much like the beginning of it. There will be a big crisis when several major institutions fall, but so far, only the major airline companies are at risk of bankruptcy.

analytics5e6b217b42d34.jpg

Update on the coronavirus: Since the beginning of the epidemic, the total number of cases recorded is 130,000. 50,000 of those are from outside of China.

60 thousand patients have already recovered in China. The country has already coped with the epidemic.

Meanwhile, Iran has 10,000 cases, while South Korea has 8,000.

As of the moment, the most dangerous situation is in Europe, with Italy having 15,000 patients, Spain with 3,000 patients, Germany with 2,300 patients, and France with 2,300 patients.

WHO has classified the virus as pandemic.

Patients still increase by more than 10% per day, if we exclude China.

EUR/USD. The ECB has allocated € 120 billion to support the markets until the end of the year. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve allocated up to $1 trillion to support the financial market incase of a crisis.

In this regard, the euro declined sharply, and reversed the upward trend.

Thus, we are ready to buy euros from 1.1495, and we are ready to sell it from 1.0775.

We are waiting for closer levels to form to enter the market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 13. ECB is expanding its asset purchase program and the euro drops. Bears

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

The European Central Bank's decision not to change rates slightly surprised markets, but this did not prevent the euro from sharply falling against the US dollar, which, however, was partially played out at the end of the US session. Now buyers are focused on the 1.1237 resistance, since further upward correction depends on it. Consolidating at the 1.1237 level will be a signal to buy the euro in order to return and update the highs of 1.1295 and 1.1344, where I recommend taking profits. However, a more interesting signal to open long positions will be when a false breakout forms in the support area of 1.1161. Otherwise, you can buy EUR/USD immediately on the rebound from yesterday's low of 1.1063. Today's German inflation data is unlikely to help euro buyers.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Bears will count on the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1237 and on the rebound of the pair from the moving averages, which will be the first signal to open short positions. However, a more important task will be a breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.1161, which will strengthen the bearish momentum and lead to the return of EUR/USD to the support area of 1.1063, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pair grows above the resistance of 1.1237 after the release of German inflation data, it is best to return to short positions on the resistance test of 1.1295, or sell the euro immediately on a rebound from the high of 1.1344.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving average, which saves the likelihood of further downward correction in the pair.

Bollinger bands

If the euro decreases, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1110, while growth may be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the region of 1.1245.

analytics5e6b26179411f.jpg

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dow now trading sharply lower after corona pandemic becomes US national concern

analytics5e6aea23947f7.jpg

After the corona issue became the US national concern, yesterday #INDU broke out the bearish level of 22,172.53 (-25% from its all time high). Today the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) is closed on Friday 13th. This action is a precaution to reduce large gatherings on the CME trading floor. Usually, next day the Dow opens with a strong bearish bias. As we can see from the daily chart, #INDU will try to reach the Weekly Sell Side Liquidity Pool at 20,380. Amid the fast-spreading coronavirus, this Liquidity Pool will be removed soon as long the Dow does not retrace to up more then 25,017.72.

The overall bias of #INDU is bearish.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Corona Pandemic making the Crude Oil continue their movement in a Bearish pressure

analytics5e6aee2d277a4.jpg

On the Daily Chart, we can see #CL is now trying to reach the nearest liquidity pool at 27.34 after the WHO officially declared the coronavirus the global pandemic.The oil prices are likely to continue to decline as long the #CL does not rise to 36.28.

The overall bias from the #CL is bearish.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 13, 2020

EUR/USD

At the meeting on Thursday, the ECB kept all three rates (base 0.0%, deposit rate -0.5%, lending 0.25%), but introduced a "stabilization package" of 120 billion euros for the purchase of corporate bonds. The ECB lowered its economic forecast for the current year to 0.8% from 1.1% in the previous estimate. Investors continued to buy the safe-haven currency, the dollar. The euro closed the day down by 93 points. Donald Trump's ban on tourists from Europe entering the United States will come into effect starting today.

analytics5e6b062cf051c.jpg

On the daily chart, the euro's fall was met with support for the MACD line. The price is testing the resistance of the Fibonacci level of 23.6% at the moment. And since important data will not be released today, the price may spend the entire session near this level. The signal to continue the decline, with the euro's intention to work out the support of the embedded line of the price channel in the area of 1.0975 and even the lower line at 1.0640, will be the departure of the price under the daily MACD line (1.1070).

analytics5e6b06403a090.jpg

The price is fixed under the MACD and balance indicator lines on the four-hour scale chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator unfolds from the oversold zone, which indirectly confirms the intention of the price to form a more pronounced correction from the fall of the last three days. The top of the correction may be at the MACD line at the price of 1.1290.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on March 13, 2020

AUD/USD

Yesterday there was a collapse in the stock, commodity and commodity markets. With trading stops, the US stock index S&P 500 lost 9.51%, the European EuroStoxx50 collapsed by 12.35%, oil -6.98%, copper -2.90%, iron ore fell by 2.34%, meat futures lost up to 7%.

analytics5e6b05dc8cb3b.jpg

The Australian dollar fell by 180 points and the target for the Fibonacci level of 138.2% (0.6207) was reached at the peak of the decline. This is also where the price channel line runs on the daily scale chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator quickly entered the oversold zone, hence there may be a corrective growth of the indicator and the price itself. The price growth is likely to continue to the 110.0% Fibonacci level at 0.6376. The limit of growth is the intersection point of the 100.0% Fibonacci level with the price channel line at 0.6435. After the correction is complete, we expect the price to decline to the reaction level of 161.8% at the price of 0.6065. An embedded price channel line is also located in the area of the specified price.

analytics5e6b05f0e0d66.jpg

At the four-hour scale, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator turns up from the oversold zone, waiting for the correction to be completed.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on March 13, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 lost 4.41% yesterday, and now it is losing 8.41% this morning, following the crushing collapse of the US market by almost 10%. Yesterday, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda had an emergency meeting with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, after which he announced his readiness to "saturate financial markets". But the "saturation" of the market occurred yesterday: the volume of trading on the yen was a record for almost the entire history of trading, so after proto-trading in the range of 300 points, the USD/JPY pair closed the day by adding 40 points.

analytics5e6b059823946.jpg

At the moment, the price is consolidating before the resistance of the embedded price channel line on the daily scale chart. The continuation of the correction growth looks as possible up to the embedded price channel line at 107.14, since historically, the Bank of Japan's interventions (in relation to a targeted change in the yen exchange rate) have always been short-term and have not changed the general direction of the trend.

analytics5e6b05ab72576.jpg

On the four-hour chart, the price is kept from rising by the MACD line. Further corrective growth may be to the Fibonacci levels of 110.0% at the price of 106.40 and 123.6% at the price of 107.06, which is close to the target mark on the daily chart (107.14). But to continue the growth, the price needs to be fixed on the MACD line, above 105.30. If the Japanese central bank weakens the cash injection, it is likely that the pair will decline from the current levels, in this case, the goal is to support the price channel at 102.90.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Comprehensive analysis of movement options of #USDX vs Gold & Silver (H4) for March 13, 2020

Did the strength change? Metals down – dollar up? Here's a comprehensive analysis of movement options of #USDX vs Gold & Silver (H4) for March 13, 2020

Minuette operational scale (H4)

____________________

US dollar index

The movement #USDX to March 13, 2020 due to the processing and the direction of the breakdown range :

  • resistance level of 96.85 at the lower boundary of ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks ;
  • support level of 96.50 on the ultimate Schiff Line of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The breakdown of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 96.85) Minuette, followed by breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette (97.00) will determine the development of the movement of the dollar index within the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale forks (96.85 - 97.50 - 98.15) and Minuette (97.00 - 97.50 - 98.00), as well as the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (97.80 - 98.20 - 98.60).

On the other hand, the breakdown of the final Schiff Line Minuette (support level of 96.50) will enable the development of the downward movement of #USDX to the final FSL line (95.40) of the Minuette operational scale forks and initial line SSL (94.75) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The markup of #USDX movement options from March 13, 2020 is shown on the animated chart.

analytics5e6a4b9061459.jpg

____________________

Spot Gold

From March 13, 2020, the development of the Spot Gold movement will continue to be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (1639.88 - 1620.00 - 1600.20) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details of the movement of Spot Gold is presented on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (support level of 1600.00) will determine the development of Spot Gold movement within the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale forks (1603.00 - 1578.00 - 1555.00) and Minuette (1600.00 - 1573.00 - 1546.00).

Alternatively, in case of breakdown of the upper boundary (resistance level of 1639.88) of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks is an option for the development of Spot Gold upward movement to the initial SSL line (1666.00) of the Minuette operational scale forks and SSL Minuette start line (1690.00).

The details of the Spot Gold movement options from March 13, 2020 are shown on the animated chart.

analytics5e6a4bfc19b8e.jpg

____________________

Spot Silver

The development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (16.550 - 16.210 - 15.850) of the Minuette operational scale forks will begin to determine the development of the Spot Silver movement from March 13, 2020. We look at the details of the development of the indicated levels on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the support level of 15.850 at the lower boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks is a continuation of the downward movement of Spot Silver to the final line FSL Minuette (14.750).

In contrast, the breakdown of the resistance level of 16.550 on the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks, the Spot Silver movement will be directed to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (16.820 - 17.120 - 17.400) and the equilibrium zone (17.250 - 17.470 - 17.720) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of the Spot Silver movement from March 13, 2020 can be seen on the animated chart.

analytics5e6a4c1f013fa.jpg

____________________

The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Dollar revaluation: "minute of glory" or long-term rally?

"The dollar is back": a similar thesis can often be found in the analytical reports of many currency strategists today. The US currency is behaving quite abnormally today – amid all disadvantageous and extremely negative factors, the greenback is rapidly regaining lost positions. In just a few hours, it strengthened against the pound by 300 points, against the Australian dollar – by almost 200 points, and against the euro – by 200 points.

Moreover, this rise in the US currency occurred amid falling stock markets and a decrease in the yield of 10-year treasuries. Moreover, the dollar rose in price without any clear information reasons – on the contrary, the news flow continues to abound with pessimism, instilling fear in investors about the prospects of the world economy. Trading on Wall Street was suspended again today for the second time in a week, after the S&P 500 plunged seven percent almost immediately after opening. Therefore, this unusual behavior of the dollar discouraged many traders. The market continues to debate - according to some experts, we are dealing with a powerful, but still corrective pullback, according to others – the dollar is again trying on the image of a defensive tool.

analytics5e6ad050c4ced.jpg

As some analysts believe, the greenback has strengthened amid increasing rumors about the adoption of extraordinary measures of a stimulating nature by the US authorities. But today, on the contrary, the situation in this regard is in limbo. The day before yesterday, Trump promised to stimulate the US economy , which, according to him, "began to feel the negative consequences of the coronavirus epidemic." He assured Americans that the White House is preparing a package of stimulus measures that will affect, in particular, income taxes and loans for small businesses.

But later it turned out that the Congress was skeptical of this idea, at least in the interpretation of the Trump administration. Trump's advisers insist on the abolition of the payroll tax (if not by the end of the year, then at least for the next three months), as well as on providing state assistance to companies in the tourism industry, as well as oil and gas companies. Congressmen are opposed – according to their calculations, these steps will reduce the level of tax revenue by $400 billion. According to Trump's opponents, tax cuts will be covered by an increase in the budget deficit, which is unacceptable. The senators suggested alternative options – for example, paid sick leave for those Americans who are forced out of work due to quarantine or other circumstances related to the spread of COVID-19. But, apparently, the parties have not come to a compromise: first, Trump has not announced a program of financial stimulus for the economy (although he promised to do it yesterday), and secondly, he said today that he does not support the Democrats' program to combat coronavirus.

In other words, the dollar is clearly getting more expensive for other reasons – and the actions of the US authorities (or rather, inaction) have absolutely nothing to do with it. In my opinion, it is more plausible to assume that the greenback is again considered by the market as a safe-haven – against all odds. The single currency is under pressure from Lagarde's rhetoric, while black Monday was followed by black Thursday. A drop to 8-9% was recorded on the US stock exchanges, while the situation was more unfortunate in Europe. The STOXX Europe 600 composite index of the largest European enterprises slumped by ten percent (this has not happened since the global crisis 12 years ago), the British FTSE 100 index fell by 5.6%, the German DAX – by 6.1%, the French CAC 40 – by 6.1%, the Spanish IBEX 35 – by 6.07% and the Italian FTSE MIB – by 5.47%.

analytics5e6ad064775ea.jpg

The oil market also added fuel to the fire: today it became known that the Saudis intend to send a stream of "black gold" to Europe (which is the main market for Russian oil) at a significant discount. There are also rumors that Saudi Arabia may significantly increase its oil supplies to the European Union as part of a "price war" with Russia. Against this background, a barrel of Brent oil has already returned to $32, and a barrel of WTI – to the borders of the 29-dollar mark.

So the European currency (temporarily? the market lost its appeal, and traders were forced to flee to the "American shores". It is difficult to say how long the greenback will hold the status of a defensive tool. The expensive dollar is the last thing the US economy needs right now. It is likely that the subsequent actions of the Fed (or verbal intervention by the representatives of the US central bank) will scare investors away from the greenback. But today, the US currency is clearly used by the market as a safe-haven amid growing panic in the financial world. Such impulsive price movements should be treated with caution, given the possible reaction from both the Fed and the White House. Therefore, at the moment, it is advisable to take a wait-and-see position on the EUR/USD pair.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

How to behave during the coronavirus epidemic: a memo to traders

analytics5e6ad7978542e.jpg

Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that can cause a number of diseases in humans, less often in animals. Most often, the disease occurs in a mild form (ARI, SARS), but there are also severe (SARS, Middle East respiratory syndrome, etc.). The coronavirus, diagnosed in China (Wuhan) in December 2019, provokes the disease COVID - 19-a severe respiratory infection. Many experts consider it a new type of pneumonia.

The disease is characterized by a number of symptoms that, unfortunately, are easily confused with other respiratory infections and even with the common cold. Recently, foreign virologists have confirmed that COVID-19 is constantly mutating, so some symptoms may be masquerading as other diseases.

Symptoms of coronavirus include:

1) Fatigue, chest heaviness, headache and dizziness.

2) Shortness of breath up to attacks, tearing cough. The patient becomes very difficult to breathe, while the pain in the chest and throat worsens.

3) Muscle pain.

4) Severe shortness of breath. Here's what doctors say about this: "Special attention should be paid to severe shortness of breath. If it is observed in parallel with symptoms such as fever, runny nose, sore throat, muscle pain, headache, insomnia, nausea, vomiting, and stool disorders, it is most often with coronavirus."

5) Abdominal pain, diarrhea. Stomach upset occurs due to the penetration of the virus into the gastrointestinal tract and its defeat. Any food and water is rejected by the body, reacting with vomiting, abdominal pain and diarrhea.

6) Severe fever with a temperature of 37-38 degrees and above, which can not be brought down by antipyretics. Temperature spikes also indicate the development of the virus.

7) Non-standard manifestation of COVID-19 is the similarity of symptoms of coronavirus with Dengue fever (fever, itchy rash).

Transmission of the virus:

1) through contaminated surfaces (wood, metal, plastic, etc.);

2) by airborne droplets (when coughing and sneezing);

3) when touching the nose and eyes (after contact with infected surfaces).

Prevention measures:

1. Wash your hands with soap (preferably household, bactericidal, tar) for at least 20 seconds.

2. Treat hands and surfaces with an alcohol-containing antiseptic.

3. Use wet wipes.

4. Refuse to shake hands, as well as hugs and kisses when meeting. Experts recommend a new form of greeting is to shake hands with their elbows.

5. Sneezing is also better in the elbow, and coughing - in disposable handkerchiefs or napkins.

6. If necessary, blow your nose – use disposable napkins, which then throw in the trash (preferably in a closed one).

7. Wash your nose with either saline solution (1 teaspoon per glass of water) or saline solution (sold in pharmacies).

8. You must wear medical masks (regular disposable, reusable fabric, and if possible – specialized), as well as respirators.

9. Disposable masks, according to medical instructions, are changed every 2 hours. The reusable fabric mask can be used as needed after appropriate treatment. Treatment includes: boiling or washing in hot water with household soap, as well as Ironing. For the care of a specialized medical mask, as well as for respirators, there are appropriate instructions.

10. Do not touch your nose and eyes with dirty hands, especially after the street.

11. You should increase your immune system and lead a healthy lifestyle. As a preventive measure, onions, garlic, lemons, ginger, and a plentiful warm drink with sour berries (for example, cranberry morsels) are recommended.

12. If you experience suspicious symptoms, especially those resembling flu and SARS, you need to seek medical help. If necessary, doctors recommend self-isolation at home for two weeks.

13. Competent specialists also recommend that you store food in case of isolation. Products with a long shelf life include a variety of cereals (rice, buckwheat, etc.), pasta, dried fruits and nuts. The house must have water supplies. If necessary, you can stock frozen vegetables and fruits, crackers, canned meat and fish.

14. Any contact with potentially infected people should be avoided.

15. To limit the contacts to help you make the transition to remote employment. This is the main advantage of working as a trader! In a quiet home environment, as on a separate island of calm in the midst of a general storm, you can monitor the financial markets and the situation in the world.

In the event of a disease, it is necessary to remember: the earlier treatment is started, the less health risks there are. Until full recovery occurs, you should limit physical activity, contact with people, and conduct symptomatic treatment prescribed by a doctor.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com