Gold : analysis for December 01, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested and rejected from the level of 1,142.64 in an ultra high volume. According to the daily time frame, we can can observe strong demand on the market, which is a sign that selling at this stage looks very risky. Our Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1,147.00 held successful, which caused price to start with upward movement. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe a gap zone and gold managed to break above the gap zone, which confirmed a potential bullish phase. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential resistance levels. I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1,189.00, Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,217.00 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1,263.00. My advice is to watch for potential bullish opportunities on the lows.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,155.87


R2: 1,159.57


R3: 1,165.57


Support levels:


S1: 1,143.86


S2: 1,140.17


S3: 1,134.17


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).


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EUR/NZD : analysis for December 01, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested and rejecected from the level of 1.5987 in a high volume. According to the 2H time frame, we can oberve weak buying climax in the background and later on a successful absorption volume. I have placed Fibonacci expansion from most recent swings to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.5780 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.5715 According to the daily time frame, we got up-thrust bar (supply overcoming demand). Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5907


R2: 1.5930


R3: 1.5969


Support levels:


S1: 1.5829


S2: 1.5806


S3: 1.5767


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD since we got absorption volume in the background. Watch for potential selling opportunities.


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Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD for December 1-5, 2014

The weekly technical levels of EUR/USD pair:


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Overview :



  • The range of EUR/USD pair was 170 pips last week. In addition, the EUR/USD pair hit the weekly resistance 1 and the pivot point. As a result, the market was in an uptrend and formed a strong support at the level of 1.2425. It should be noted that the support coincides with the ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, and represents minor support in H1 chart. So, the price of 1.24 25 is the key level to confirm the bullish market. For that reason, the market will probably indicate the bullish opportunity at the level of 1.2425 and the level will act as support. Therefore, the price of the EUR/USD pair will give a good sign to buy above 1.2425 with the first target of 1.2494. Also, if the trend can break it, as a consequence, the trend is going to continue towards the 1.2530 price in order to form the double top.


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The movement of pivot point among resistances and supports .



  • If the price is at pivot point, watch for a move back to resistance 1 or support 1.

  • If the price is at resistance 1, expect a move to resistance 2 or back towards pivot point.

  • If the price is at support 1, expect a move to support 2 or back towards resistance 1.

  • If the price is at support 2, expect a move to support 3 or back towards support 1.

  • If the price is at resistance 2, expect a move to resistance 3 or back towards resistance 1.

  • It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news to influence, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reaches resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.


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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for December 1-5, 2014

The weekly technical levels of GBP/USD pair:


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Trading recommendations :



  • The price of GBP/USD pair is going to move between the level of 1.5614 and 1.5773. The support is set at the level of 1.5562; and the double bottom had placed at the point of 1.5614. Consequently, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above 1.5614, because the area of 1.5600-1.5614 is going to act as strong support. Therefore, it will be a good sign to buy above this area today with the first target of 1.5669 in order to test the weekly pivot point in H1 chart. Equally important, if the trend succeeds to close above 1.5694, then the market will go on the uptrend above the weekly pivot point towards the level of 1.5773. However, the stop loss should be placed below the double bottom at the price of 1.5557.


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#USDX Technical analysis for December 1, 2014

The Dollar index made another break out above the sideways trading range. Early today, it is pulling back to confirm this break out. The trend is bullish as long as price is above 87.50 while short-term support is found at 88.


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Black line- trading range


The Dollar index has broken the trading range on Friday but today it is pulling back towards the Ichimoku cloud support at 88.10-88. Holding the cloud in the 4-hour chart will be a bullish signal as a reversal to the upside should come after testing the cloud support. Critical short-term support at 87.80 is the lower cloud boundaries.


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The weekly close of the past week was a bullish sign. The weekly candle with the long tail below the body showed that buyers are supporting the Dollar index below 88. Although we start the week with not a strong note, I believe the Dollar index will end the week stronger than it started. The bullish flag target remains at 91. I remain bullish.


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Gold Technical analysis for December 1, 2014

Gold price has turned to a bearish short-term trend from Friday after breaking below $1,174. $1,174 was an important support level that I mentioned last Friday. The failure to hold it combined with the rejection of the Swiss referendum has pushed prices towards our short-term target of $1,140 which was reached earlier today.


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Gold price has reached the 78.6% retracement of the rise from $1,130 to $1,207. The trend is bearish. Support is at $1,140 and resistance is at $1,165. I believe we have seen an important top at $1,207. As long as we are trading below it, we should expect to see below $1,130 towards $1,050 as our first target.


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Red line = support


Now, when the red trend line and the ichimoku cloud are broken, short-term trend is confirmed bearish. Important resistance is set at $1,180 for the short-term trend. As I said on Friday, I remain bearish as long as price is below $1,208. Any bounce I believe is a chance to sell again Gold, preferably near $1,180.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 01, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair has been forming a new channel support trend line after breaking below its immediate line of support as seen here. The metal had formed lows at 145.50 levels last week, and since then has been rising steadily. It is recommended to hold long positions for now, with risk at 146.50. It is pretty much clear that the pair should remain in control of bulls till prices remain above the channel line support. Only a break here, should be a warning for a deeper correction towards 142.00 levels at least. Immediate support is at 146.50, followed by 145.50 (interim), 145.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 149.00 respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long for now, move stop to 146.50 from 145.50, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for December 01, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair seems to have formed base around 1.5075 levels as seen here. It is the fibonacci 0.50 support of the rally from 1.4950 to 1.5225 levels. A bullish turn around from these levels could raise price levels into the 1.5300/40 levels easily. It is therefore recommended to hold long positions for now, risk around 1.5000 levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.5075 (interim), followed by 1.5020, 1.4950 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5225 (interim), followed by 1.5300, 1.5450, and 1.5550 respectively. A rally through 1.5300 levels seems quite possible for now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop below 1.5000, the target is at 1.5300/50.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 1, 2014

General overview for 01/12/2104 08:20 CET


The corrective cycle in the shape of abc green zig-zag might have been completed and the higher degree corrective wave X brown might have been completed as well. This would mean, the market should continue to trade lower now and the support levels should be now violated as the internal intraday bearish corrective cycle in wave Y brown resumes to the downside. The minimum target zone is between the levels of 144.54 144.74, but the downside correction might extend even lower.


Support/Resistance:


149.11 - WR1


148.09 - Intraday Resistance


147.40 - Intraday Support


147.34 - Weekly Pivot


146.65 - WS1


145.68 - Technical Support


144.89 - WS2


144.54 - 144.74 - minimum target level


Trading recommendations:


Traders should consider selling this pair from the current market levels with SL above the level of 148.10 and TP at the level of 144.77.


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Technical analysis of Silver for December 01, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver has taken stops out on remaining long positions held earlier, and has dropped to $14.40/50 levels as seen here. Recommendations are to remain flat for now, though indicators are showing divergence with respect to price movements. The metal has tested support of February 2010 (at $14.63 levels). The current fall could possibly be a thrust, before resuming rally. Aggressive trading strategy would be to initiate 50% long positions now with risk below $14.30. Resistance is seen at $15.85 levels, followed by $16.70, $17.75/80 and higher up, while interim support is at $14.50/60 levels. Bears seem to be in control at the moment and the metal needs to take out $16.70 resistance to confirm bullish reversal.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now. Aggressive trade setup would be to initiate only 50%, with stop at $14.20.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 1, 2014

General overview for 01/12/2104 08:00 CET


The impulsive wave progression to the upside has not been completed yet. There is at least one more wave to the upside to be made unless the extension happens. The most important support is the technical support at the level of 1.1367, just below the weekly pivot at the level of 1.1379. Currently, the market is in a corrective cycle (sub-wave iv black) and when this cycle is completed the uptrend should resume.



Support/Resistance:


1.1465 - Swing High


1.1453 - Intraday Resistance


1.1422 - Intraday Support


1.1379 - Weekly Pivot


1.1367 - Technical Support


Trading recommendations:


Traders should consider buying the dips as the market has to complete one more wave to the upside. All SL should be placed below the level of 1.1376.


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Technical analysis of Gold for December 01, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold has dropped below $1,170.00 levels, taking us out on the remaining long positions. Also please note that the counter trend support line has been broken as well and the metal has made intraday lows at $1,142.00 levels as seen here. Immediate support is seen at $1,130.00 and lower while resistance is fixed at $1,208.00 (interim), followed by $1,235.00, $1,255.00 and higher respectively. As seen here, the metal is bouncing off the fibonacci 0.786 support of the entire rally between $1,130.00 and $1,208.00. A bullish signal appearance here can be bought, with a risk below $1,130.00. The metal would also face resistance at $1,185.00, which is a back side of the trend line support.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now. Looking to buy on a bullish reversal.


Good luck!


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Technical Analysis on USD/CHF for December 01, 2014

Swiss voters rejected the gold referendum, roughly 78% voted to expand central bank gold reserves to 20% of central bank assets. This decision weighs the CHF against the USD. The pair managed to cross the 20Dsma and closed above that at Friday's session. The pair has been struggling to breach 0.9742. Until the prices are closed and trading above 0.9500, we are expecting bullish targets. In case if the pair closes below 0.9500 on a daily basis, it can extend its fall towards 0.9440 and 0.9400. Today, traders are keeping an eye on ISM manufacturing data. Positive readings will push the prices to the previous highs. The pair has immediate parallel resistance at 0.9728 and 0.9742. On the daily chart, the pair has made higher lows and higher highs formation. In case if the price breaches 0.9742, it can extend its rally up to 0.9950. We still recommend using every dip to buy with the targets at 0.9800, 0.9840, 0.9970, and 1.017. The parallel monthly resistance exists at 0.9751. We recommend buying above 0.9751 with the targets at 0.9820 and 0.9870. If a daily close is above 0.9742, the bulls will challenge new highs by adding 150 or 200 pips on the higher side.


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Technical Analysis of Gold for December 01, 2014

Swiss voters rejected the gold referendum, roughly 78% voted expanding central bank gold reserves to 20% of central bank assets. This decision affected the yellow metal. At the opening, the metal fell $24 at the early Asia's session. The metal opened on a bearish note, opened higher at $1,166.90. We recommended selling at $1,180.00 at Friday's session which gave good money. We have been recommending selling on every rise. We still recommend the same. Today, the focus shifts on the US ISM manufacturing data. A positive readings will ignite double shot strength on the US dollar. The US dollar has been already reinforced after Swiss referendum. These factors may trigger another round of selling. On the down side, the metal has support at $1,141.80 and $1,137.00; below these levels, we can expect a steep fall in the prices towards $1,132.00 and $1,103.00. In case if the prices fall below $1,100.00, we can see $1,1085.00 as well. The prices are closed and trading below 12ema and 34hrsma. It is not safe to buy, until the prices are trading below $1,169.00 levels.


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Trading recommendation on GBP/USD for December 01, 2014

This calendar week stocks lots of important economic events which can greatly affect the pair in the near term. Today, the UK manufacturing data and the US ISM manufacturing data will drive the pair. We are expecting an uptick from the UK manufacturing data. On the previous week, the cable mostly lost its gain and closed marginally up. The pair has the nearest support at the 1.5590 levels. In case if the cable closes below 1.5500 on a weekly closing basis, we can expect 250 odd pips correction on the downside in the medium-term view. The pair has strong, longer-term support at 1.5500. Below 1.5500 levels, 1.5429 and 1.5300 are the other support levels.


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From an intraday view, the prices are closed and trading below 12DEMA. But the 35DEMA is providing enough support exists at 1.5625 on an hourly basis. On the higher side, 1.5670 will act as a resistance level. In case if the pound falls below 1.5625, the last hope for bulls exists at the 1.5590 levels. In case if the pair corrects below 1.5590, again the selling pressure will increase. The panic will be triggered below the 1.5590 level. The trading pattern is framed between the 1.5590 and 1.5736 levels. In case if the prices break below 1.5590, we expect the targets of 1.5535 and 1.5510. Below 1.5500, another 100 or 150 pips downside move or risky traders can sell at the current market price at 1.5629 levels.


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Trading recommendation on EUR/USD for December 01, 2014

This calendar week stocks lots of important economic events which can greatly affect the pair in the near term. We can expect highly volatile week ahead of the ECB press conference on Thursday December 04, 2014. This week started with a SNB vote on a gold-asset requirement. The Swiss referendum weighs against Gold and supported the US dollar. On the Euro front, Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMI will be published. On the greenback front, ISM manufacturing PMI data will be released at today's session. Today, the pair opened on a bearish note, opened higher at 1.2463. Until the prices are trading below 1.2463, we recommend not to be on the buying side. The pair has the nearest support at 1.2350 and 1.2320. Panic will be triggered below 1.2320. Bears can challenge 200 odd pips on the down side. If a weekly close is below 1.2350, we can expect 500 odd pips correction on the down side from the longer-term view. The pair has strong longer-term support at 1.2226. Below 1.2226, the levels of 1.2045 and 1.1876 are another multiple support levels. We have been recommending selling on every upswing with the downside initial targets at 1.2320 and 1.2230.


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From an intraday view, the prices are closed and trading below 12ema and 35DEMA. The pair opened below the 20Dsma. The pair has been taking support at 1.2427. We recommend fresh selling below 1.2425 with the targets at 1.2415, 1.2405 ,1.2395, and 1.2375. On the down side, the pair has support at 1.2358, below this 1.2350, 1.2325 and 1.2228. In case if the pair corrects below 1.2358, again the selling pressure will increase. The panic will be triggered below 1.2320. On an intraday and positional basis, we recommend selling on every upswing.


Trade: selling below 1.2425.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 01, 2014

!EURUSD.jpg When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Spanish Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI. The US will release the economic reports too such as the Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Prices. In this context, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2497.

Strong Resistance:1.2489.

Original Resistance: 1.2477.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2465.

Target Inner Area: 1.2435.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2405.

Original Support: 1.2393.

Strong Support: 1.2381.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2373.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 01, 2014

!USDJPY.jpg In Asia, Japan will release the Capital Spending q/y and Final Manufacturing PMI. The US will also release some economic data such as Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and ISM Manufacturing Prices. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the Asian session, and with the same volatility too during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 119.47.

Resistance. 2: 119.24.

Resistance. 1: 119.01.

Support. 1: 118.72.

Support. 2: 118.49.

Support. 3: 118.26.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 1, 2014

EUR/USD: The bias on the EUR/USD pair remains bearish in spite of bull's effort to push price upwards. Rallies into the resistance lines at 1.2500 and 1.2600 should be seen as short-selling opportunities (for price may go further downwards from there). It is only a break above the resistance line at 1.2600 that can render the bearish bias invalid.


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USD/CHF: The bias on this pair remains bullish in spite of the bearish attempt on it. Pullbacks into the support levels at 0.9600 and 0.9550 should be seen as good offers to buy long, unless price breaks the support level at 0.9550 to the downside. In that case, the bias could turn bearish.


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GBP/USD: The Cable is weak, even weaker than EUR/USD. Therefore, long trades are not currently recommended unless price breaks the distribution territory at 1.5800 to the upside. In the near-term, price may touch the accumulation territories at 1.5600 and 1.5550.


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USD/JPY: The ultimate target for USD/JPY is at the supply level of 119.00, and price is now close to that target. With further strength in the market, the supply level can be breached to the upside as the bulls continue to push price up. In that case, the next target could be the supply level at 119.50.


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EUR/JPY: This cross moved upwards at the beginning of last week and then moved sideways; before breaking further upwards on Friday. As expected, momentum has returned to this market and it has resumed its upwards journey. This has happened following the short-term base that was built by the sideways movement that occurred last week. The ultimate target is at the supply zone of 149.00 – which would be reached only with significant strength in the market.


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Daily analysis of USDX for December 01, 2014

The USDX continues to strengthen in the bullish trend above the level of 87.93 in the H4 chart. The USDX is trying to touch new high levels, although the resistance level of 88.44 has been very strong. However, if this instrument can overcome this barrier, it's expected to touch the resistance level of 88.65. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone.


H4chart's resistance levels: 88.27 / 88.44


H4chart's support levels: 88.19 / 87.93


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In the H1 chart, the USDX is forming a bullish pattern above the 88.15 level, because this instrument managed to stay strong above the 200-day moving average at the last session. On the upside road, objectives would be set at the levels of 88.43 and 88.71. The possibility that the USDX falls again to the level of 87.86 is not ruled out.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 88.43 / 88.71


H1 chart's support levels: 88.15 / 87.86


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 88.43, take profit is at 88.71, and stop loss is at 88.14.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 01, 2014

The GBP/USD pair has had a strong fall below the resistance level of 1.5746, because this pair is trying to continue the bearish trend in the medium term. If the GBP/USD pair manages to form another fractal at the current levels, this pair is likely to rise up again to the level of 1.5746. Now, the MACD indicator is entering the overbought area.


Dailychart's resistance levels: 1.5746 / 1.5883


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5642 / 1.5506


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In the H1 chart, the GBP/USD pair has made a rebound at the support level of 1.5632. The GBP/USD pair may perform a retracement to the 1.5686 level, which is below the 200-day moving average. However, this pair has been very solid in the current bearish trend from the November 27's session, so we could see this pair drop to the level of 1.5590. The MACD indicator is entering the oversold area.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5739 / 1.5810


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5686 / 1.5632


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5632, take profit is at 1.5590, and stop loss is at 1.5672.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 1 - 2014

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Technical summary:


We are still looking for a break above minor resistance at 1.5920 to confirm acceleration higher towards 1.6000 and 1.6273. Only an unexpected break below support at 1.5788 will delay the expected upside for a move slightly lower to 1.5745 before the next upside pressure should be expected.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 1.5830 with stop placed at 1.5775. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.5920 and use the same stop at 1.5775.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 1 - 2014

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Technical summary:


We are still looking for wave b a little higher towards 148.25 before wave c lower towards 143.88 will be ready to take over. Short term, we should expect minor support at 147.31 will protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 147.77 confirming the last rally higher to 148.25 and set the stage for wave c lower towards 143.88. Only a direct break below support at 146.88 will indicate that the wave is already over and wave c lower is already unfolding.


Trading recommendation:


We are still looking to sell EUR at 148.10 with a stop at 149.25.


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