Gold analysis for March 02, 2015


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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As we expected,the price has tested the level of $1,223.05. We can observe demand in a high volume on the market. According to a H1 time frame, we have good rejection from the level of $1,212.00, which is a sign that selling gold at this stage looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. We have a resistance level around the price of $1,235.00 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). According to a daily time frame, we have demand in a volume above average.


Daily Fibonacci pivot points:


Resistance levels :


R1: 1,214.90


R2: 1,215.56


R3: 1,216.63


Support levels :


S1: 1,212.76


S2: 1,212.10


S3: 1,211.03


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after a retracement (buy on the dips).




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EUR/NZD analysis for March 02, 2015

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Overview:


In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading upwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of 1.4906 in an average volume. The major support level at the price of 1.4790 was held successfully and it caused the price to start with an upward movement. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and have got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.4950. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe demand in an average volume. My advice is to watch for potential bullish opportunities near the lows. Any larger reaction from our support levels may confirm a further bullish phase.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.4865


R2: 1.4890


R3: 1.4930


Support levels:


S1: 1.4785


S2: 1.4778


S3: 1.4692


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).




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Weekly technical levels for GBP/USD for March 2-6, 2015


Trading recommendations :



  • According to the previous events, the major support of the GBP/USD pair is going to be set at the level of 1.5328. Moreover, the price hit the weekly pivot point and the resistance 1 last week. Furthermore, the level of 1.5440 is representing the weekly pivot point. Hence, we expect a new range of 108 pips today. Therefore, the price of the GBP/USD pair is going to move between 1.5335 and 1.5440. As a result, sell below the level of 1.5440 in the short term with the first target at 1.5384, if the trend can break the minor support at 1.5384, then it might resume to 1.5352 in order to test the double bottom on the H1 chart.



Observations :

On March 2, 2015:



  • Major support will be set at the level of 1.5328.

  • Major resistance will be set at the level of 1.5440.

  • We expect a new range up to 275 pips this week.

  • If the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.

  • Stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

  • As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the last day had huge volatility.


The weekly technical levels for GBP/USD pair :

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 02, 2015

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Fundamental overview:

The GBP/JPY is expected to trade buoyant. It is supported by diminished investor risk aversion and demand of Japanese importers. It is also supported by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross and sterling demand on buoyant GBP/JPY cross amid diminished risk aversion. But GBP/JPY upside is limited by weak EUR/USD undertone and Japanese importers sales.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed, as stochastics is bearish, a five-day moving average is below a 15-day moving average and is declining, but the MACD is still in a bullish mode.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 183.35. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 182.90. The pivot point stands at 184.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 185.05 and the second target at 185.70.


Resistance levels:

185.05

185.70

186.15


Support levels:

183.35

182.90

182.50


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 02, 2015

USDJPYM30.png

Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid improved investor risk sentiment as China cut interest rates for the second time in four months on Saturday, reducing its one-year lending rate to 5.35% from 5.6% and its one-year deposit rate to 2.5% from 2.75%. While China's manufacturing PMI unexpectedly improved to 49.9 in February from 49.8 in January (versus forecast for no change at 49.8) and China's non-manufacturing PMI rose to 53.9 in February from 53.7 in January. USD/JPY is also supported by demand from Japan's importers, the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.45 versus 95.28 early Friday) on stronger-than-expected US 4Q GDP growth by 2.2% (versus forecast +2.0%), the higher final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index of 95.4 (versus forecast 94.0 and preliminary reading of 93.6) for February. But the USD sentiment is dented by the larger-than-expected fall in the US ISM Chicago PMI to 45.8 in February from 59.4 in January (forecast 58.0), weaker-than-expected 1.7% on-month increase in the US January pending home sales index (versus forecast +2.0%). The USD/JPY gains also tempered by lower US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.002% versus 2.014% late Thursday) and the Japanese exports.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is neutral, but the MACD is bullish. Five and 15-day moving averages are rising.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 120 and the second target at 120.35. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.60. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.60. The pivot point is at 119.50.


Resistance levels:

120

120.35

120.75

Support levels:

119.10

118.60

118.25


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 02, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.45 versus 95.28 early Friday) on stronger-than-expected US 4Q GDP growth by 2.2% (versus forecast +2.0%), higher final February University of Michigan consumer sentiment index of 95.4 (versus forecast 94.0 and preliminary reading of 93.6), the negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention.


Technical comment:
The daily chart positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics is bullish, although the latter is at overbought levels, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9590 and the second target at 0.9630. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9445. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9405. The pivot point is at 0.9495.


Resistance levels:

0.9590

0.9630

0.9690


Support levels:

0.9445

0.9405

0.9365


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 02, 2015

NZDUSDM30.png

Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade in a higher range. Kiwi sentiment is boosted by the quarterly drop by 1.9% in New Zealand's 4Q terms of trade (versus forecast -3.1%). NZD/USD ia also supported by China's rate cut on Saturday, Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion and the NZD-USD interest differential. But the NZD/USD gains are tempered by the positive dollar sentiment.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7570 and the second target at 0.7615. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7470. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7430. The pivot point is at 0.7515.


Resistance levels:

0.7570

0.7615

0.7655



Support levels:


0.7470

0.7430

0.74


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Weekly technical levels for EUR/USD for March 2-6, 2015

The weekly technical levels for EUR/USD pair


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Overview :



  • The resistance is going to be set at the level of 1.1255. Moreover, the weekly pivot point is placed at the same price of 1.1255 and double top has been already placed at 1.1260. Consequently, the descending movement will probably be lower than the level of 1.1260 with the targets at 1.1180 and 1.1120. On the contrary, the support has already been set at 1.1114. Furthermore, it should be noted that it will be very profitable to buy above this level for retesting this price in the short period. Therefore, buy deals are recommended above the level of 1.1114 with targets at 1.1272 (23.6% of Fibonacci retracement) and 1.1255 to reach the major resistance of today. Even so, you have to set your stop loss. Thus, the best location for placing it should be at the level of 1.1102 which represents the double bottom on the H1 charts.



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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 2, 2015

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The market has been pushing lower aggressively after breaking below the major DEMAND LEVELS around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.


The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 800 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, theoretical long-term bearish targets would be located near 0.9450, especially after the FULL bearish MONTHLY below 1.2000 (January's monthly candlestick).


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Bearish breakout below 1.2000 and 1.1900 (prominent psychological SUPPORT) allowed a quick bearish decline towards 1.1100 to take place few days later.


Conservative traders were suggested to wait for a bullish pullback looking for better prices to SELL the EUR/USD pair off (R1 at 1.1550 and R2 at 1.1700). However, the EUR/USD bulls did not show enough bullish momentum to reach these levels.


Instead, a bearish Flag pattern was established on the daily chart. DAILY fixation below the price level of 1.1260 (recent bottom) confirmed this bearish pattern.


Risky traders could wait for a bullish pullback towards the price level of 1.1260 (recent SUPPLY level) for SHORTING the pair. Initial bearish target would be located around 1.1110 (weekly low).


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Daily analysis of USDX for March 02, 2015

During the last session, we had already watched a strong bullish momentum of the USDX in a daily chart, as the instrument tested the resistance level of 95.45 again. We could expect a higher high pattern formation for now, because the USDX is looking to hit the next resistance zone around the 96.96 level.




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A strong resistance level is located at 95.52, where the USDX is trying to form a bullish pattern in order to strength the current upward bias. At the H1 chart, the 200 SMA is still bullish and the USDX could probably reach the resistance level of 96.63 throughout the week. On the other hand, if the USDX does a breakout at the support level of 95.31, it could test the 94.87 level.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.45 / 96.96


Dailychart's support levels: 94.18 / 93.02


H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.52 / 96.63


H1 chart's support levels: 94.02 / 93.87






Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 94.38, take profit is at 94.87, and stop loss is at 94.41.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 02, 2015

We are still watching bullish moves in the medium and long term for GBP/USD as the pair continues trying to reach the resistance level of 1.5491. There is a room for a new bullish momentum, but buyers will get stronger when a breakout at that resistance zone happens. If it is successful, there will be enough room for taking advantage of the bullish momentum until the next resistance placed at the level of 1.5761.


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On the H1 chart we can see a consolidation below the 200 SMA, that could jeopardize our current bullish intraday outlook on GBP/USD. By the way, there is still a chance that the pair could perform a breakout at the resistance level of 1.5413 with a target placed at the level of 1.5455. With a pullback at the current levels, the GBP/USD pair could test the support level of 1.5340.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5761 / 1.5957


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5491 / 1.5247


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5413 / 1.5455


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5340 / 1.5257






Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place long (buy) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5413, take profit is at 1.5455, and stop loss is at 1.5370.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 2, 2015

General overview for 02/03/2015 10:20 CET


The overall labeling of the recent wave progression has been slightly changed and now the top of wave C black is labeled as wave W brown and the recent low of (a)(b)(c) blue wave progression is labeled as wave Y brown. That change is a merely labeling change and the longer term outlook remains the same — wave Y brown is missing to the upside in order to complete the overall corrective cycle in wave 4 black. Please notice that the market must break out above an intraday resistance at the level of 134.43 and then break even higher above the golden trend line to continue with the upward wave progression. Any failure here would result in lower levels of the wave X brown test.


Support/Resistance:


132.77 - WS1


133.43 - Intraday Support


134.22 - Weekly Pivot


134.43 - Intraday Resistance


135.02 - WR1


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders and swingtraders should consider opening buy orders from the current market levels with SL below the level of 133.43 and TP open for now.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 2, 2015

General overview for 02/03/2015 09:40 CET


It is quite possible that the triangle formation was completed. Now market is trying to break out above the level of 1.2533 and the golden trend line. The first target would be the green trend line dynamic resistance at the level of 1.2600 and then a big supply zone from higher time frame marked as a grey rectangle. Nevertheless, before market would do that, there is one more wave to complete in the corrective structure to finish wave (ii) green of the overall intraday impulsive progression. Please, notice that any violation of the level of 1.2386 invalidates the impulsive bullish wave development.


Support/Resistance:


1.2367 - WS1


1.2386 - Invalidation Level


1.2447 - Intraday Support


1.2515 - Weekly Pivot


1.2533 - Intraday Resistance


1.2600 - Dynamic Trend Line Resistance


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders and swingtraders should consider opening buy orders from the current market levels with SL below the level of 1.2385 and TP open for now.


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#USDX technical analysis for March 2, 2015

The US Dollar index has broken the triangle pattern to the upside and has back-tested as expected in our last analysis. Now the index is making new higher highs confirming the bullish breakout. I expect to see new highs towards 97-98 or even 100 over the coming weeks.


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Red line = triangle pattern


The US Dollar index has broken the triangle upwards and is above the Ichimoku cloud. The trend is bullish in the short term as well. Support is found at 95-94.90. Resistance is at 95.50 where the previous high is found.


usdxd.jpg

Black lines = triangle


The daily chart remains fully bullish. The price is above the Ichimoku cloud and above the Kijun- and tenkan-sen indicators. Daily support is at 94.20 and as long as we are above that level, trend will remain fully bullish with 97-98 as the first target area.


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Gold technical analysis for March 2, 2015

Gold price held the support of $1,200 last week and now is trying once again to break above the weekly resistance at $1,225. The short-term trend has changed to bullish, so this increases the chances of an upward move towards $1,250.


goldh4.jpg


Black line = resistance


Red line = support


Gold price has broken above the short-term resistance trend line and above the Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour chart. This is a bullish signal. This implies that an important low was made at $1,188 and that we should expect a tradeable bounce towards $1,250. Strong resistance is also at the 61.8% retracement of the decline at $1,262.


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The weekly chart shows how the price is trying to break above the kijun-sen (yellow line). The trend is bearish in the longer term, but we cannot rule out a bounce towards the cloud resistance at $1,260-$1,270.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 2, 2015

EUR/USD: This market plummeted by around 180 pips last week, challenging the support line at 1.1200. This week, we would watch another support line at 1.1100, though there is a probability that the market could rally any day in the week.


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USD/CHF: In contrast to what EUR/USD was doing, this pair moved downwards. (Although its movement was not as significant as the movement on the EUR/USD pair), the USD/CHF price rose upwards from the support level at 0.9450, almost reaching the resistance level at 0.9550. While the resistance level may be breached to the upside, the possibility of a bearish correction cannot also be overlooked.


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GBP/USD: The Cable went upwards and later went downwards last week, but the general outlook on the market is still upbeat. On Friday, February 27, 2015, the price closed at 1.5436, while hovering above the accumulation territory at 1.5400. There is a risk of that accumulation territory being breached to the downside.


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USD/JPY: Owing to the obvious strength in the USD, this currency trading instrument made a weak effort to go upwards last. Unless the price crosses the supply level at 120.00 to the upside, it would be assumed that this market is still consolidating. One would need to keep one’s fingers crossed until a serious momentum returns to the market. One thing is almost certain: the possibility that the USD/JPY pair would go upwards is very high.


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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair trended downwards last week, owing to the weakness in the EUR. The price tested the demand zone at 133.50 and further bearish movement was rejected around that place. There is now a faint bullish effort in the market and the supply zones at 135.00 and 135.50 can be attained this week. The outlook on this cross is bullish for the week.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 02, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair produced an indecision candlestick chart pattern on Friday indicating a potential reversal. At the moment, the pair is seen trading around 133.90/134.00 levels, and it is expected to resume rally from here on. It is hence recommended to hold long positions and also look to add further with risk at 132.50 for now. Immediate support is seen at 133.40/50 levels (interim), followed by 132.50, 130.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 137.50/138.00 levels followed by 142.30 and higher respectively. Bulls are expected to remain in control till prices remain above 132.50.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at 132.50, a target 138.00


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for March 02, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair has bounced off an intermediary trend line support around 1.4600 as seen here on the hourly chart setup. The pair is trading above 1.4700 for now and could be looking to push higher towards 1.4895 and 1.4980 levels respectively. Only a break below 1.4600 levels would indicate that a top is in place at 1.4760/70 levels and a deeper correction has begun. At the moment, it is recommended to initiate long positions with stop below 1.4600 levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.4600 levels (interim), followed by 1.4400 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.4760/70 interim), followed by 1.4890 and higher respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate long positions, stop at 1.4550, a target 1.4970.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of Silver for March 02, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver has been testing an intermediary trend line resistance at $16.70/80 levels for now, as depicted on the 4H chart. A bearish reaction here could bring the metal lower towards $16.20/30 levels again before the rally continues. It is recommended to remain long for now and also look to buy lower around $16.20/30 with risk at $15.50. The pair is expected to rally towards $17.30/40 levels as per fibonacci extension levels depicted here. Immediate support is seen at $16.00/10 levels (interim), followed by $15.50 and lower while resistance is seen at $17.40/50, followed by $18.40/50 and higher respectively. Bulls are poised to remain in control till prices stay above $15.50 levels.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long for now, stop at $15.50, a target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of Gold for March 02, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold has resumed rally as expected last week, and is just about to hit the first estimated target at $1,225.00 levels. As seen here on the 4H chart, the metal is expected to reach $1,245.00/46.00 levels in the coming sessions. It is more clear that $1,190.00 has been formed as a higher low and a potential right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulder reversal discussed last week. It is hence recommended to remain long and also look to add further on dips, with risk at $1,170.00 levels for now. Immediate support (interim) is seen at $1,190.00 levels, followed by $1,170.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,225.00, followed by $1,235.00/45.00, $1,285.00 and higher respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $1,170.00, a target is open.


Good luck!




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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 2 - 2015

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Technical summary:


With a new all-time low, we are getting close to the long-term support line, which currently is seen near 1.4700. We expect this long-term support line will protect the downside, but to confirm a change in the trend a minor five-wave rally is needed and this has not been seen yet. In the short term, we expect minor resistance at 1.4898 which will protect the upside for the final decline close to 1.4700 to end the decline from 1.7274 and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave C higher.


Trading recommendations:


We are looking for a buying opportunity at 1.4725 with stop placed at 1.4675.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 2 - 2015

2015-03-02-EURJPY-4H.png

Technical summary:


We are still looking for a clear break below support at 133.51 to confirm that wave (v) lower is indeed developing. In the short term, we will ideally see minor resistance at 134.27 which will protect the upside for a break below 133.51 for an acceleration towards 130.18. Only an unexpected break above resistance at 135.37 will indicate that an even more complex correction is unfolding in wave (iv).


Trading recommendation:


We are short EUR from 133.90 with stop placed at 135.20. If you are not short EUR yet, sell near 134.27 or upon a break below support at 133.64 with the same stop at 135.20.


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Technical analysis and trading recommendations on Gold for March 02, 2014

China's demand supported the metal, so it managed to hold the $1,190.00 levels and trade above $1,200.00. Finally, the metal paused its four-week losing streak and gained $10 last week. The weaker US GDP gave enough support to bring back some shines in the price. As we advised earlier, the metal fell below $1,200.00 thrice and managed to close above it. It's a good sign to recover. But as we expected, the metal is unable to close above $1,217.00. Ahead of US ISM manufacturing data, the metal is trading higher at the early Asian session. The parallel resistance is found between $1,222.60 and $1,224.00. Bulls can challenge $1,231.00 and $1,236.00, in case the price closes above $1,224.00. The intraday support is found at $1,210.00. The weekly and daily resistance is set at $1,223.00. In Friday's articles we advised, in case the US GDP print falls short of expectations, there is a chance of an upside price momentum towards $1,217.00 and $1,222.00. Today, the metal touched my targets in line with buying recommendations at $1,212.00. The ECB meeting is called on Tuesday. Yellen's speech is also of high importance. Until the price closes above 1204.00, bulls have an upper hand. The near-term bottom was placed at $1,190.00. A daily close below $1,185.00 leads to $1,170.00, $1,167.00, and $1,150.00.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 02, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Unemployment Rate, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI. Besides, the US will release a number of economic reports such as the ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1221.

Strong Resistance:1.1215.

Original Resistance: 1.1204.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1193.

Target Inner Area: 1.1167.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1141.

Original Support: 1.1130.

Strong Support: 1.1119.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1113.





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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 02, 2015

!USDJPY.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the Final Manufacturing PMI and Capital Spending q/q. The US will release a number of economic reports such as ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.46.

Resistance. 2: 120.23.

Resistance. 1: 119.99.

Support. 1: 119.70.

Support. 2: 119.46.

Support. 3: 119.23.





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