Trading plan on EUR/USD for January 14, 2020. Euro insists on growth

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The first day of the week was in favor of the dollar. The USD/JPY rate broke up long-term highs, as the pound fell against the dollar, after the reports of a weakening British economy and a likely rate cut by the Bank of England.

Despite that, euro has shown resilience.

Sellers tried to lower the rate to 1.1100, however, nothing came out.

EUR/USD: it is possible to buy from the average, as well as to break 1.1205.

A break down to 1.1085 is a signal of a cancelling growth.

From the news: On Wednesday, US and China are scheduled to sign a trade agreement, however, a report was released in the US, accusing China of undervaluing the yuan. The said agreement may be broken.

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Hot forecast and a trading recommendation for EUR/USD on 01/14/2020

So, after standing still, the single European currency can demonstrate good movement today. And it's down.

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Stomping on the spot is largely due to the banal lack of reasons for at least some meaningful movement. Of course, in Germany, the decline in wholesale prices slowed down from -2.5% to -1.3%, and in Italy, the growth rate of retail sales decreased from 1.0% to 0.9%. But all these facts are of little interest, since they affect only individual countries, and not the entire eurozone. The indicators themselves are not so significant. Although retail sales are quite a significant indicator. However, with all due respect to Italy, the scale of its economy fades against Germany and France. Thus, Italian retail has an extremely insignificant effect on the whole of Europe as a whole.

Retail Sales (Italy):

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Today will be much more interesting and more fun, although only one single indicator is published. But what? Inflation in the United States is probably the most important macroeconomic indicator for the financial world. Indeed, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, which directly affects the financial situation of various banks, investment and pension funds, and other respected organizations, depends on inflationary dynamics. So, this same inflation should accelerate from 2.1% to 2.3%. Rising inflation, in itself, will have a beneficial effect. But if we take into account that if the forecasts come true, it will mean inflation for four consecutive months, then we can confidently conclude that the Fed will definitely not be naughty anymore and lower the refinancing rate. Moreover, the fact that inflation is confidently above the target level of 2.0% will obviously lead to talk that the Fed may well think about raising the refinancing rate. And all this will contribute to the growth of interest in the dollar. Only one thing can change this situation - an unexpected decline in inflation. But also take into account the fact that not long before the publication of inflation data, a single European currency is likely to grow somewhat. As they say - buy on rumors, sell on facts.

Inflation (United States):

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a kind of correctional move from the range of 1.1080, where the quote managed to locally achieve a periodic value of 1.1145, forming a slowdown there. In fact, having a correction was formed in the overall downward flow, thereby not violating the clock component of the market.

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we see an attempt to restore the initial trend, where the quotation is still at its peak in the stage of elongated correction.

It is likely to assume that the quote will still try to complete the existing tact, returning sellers to the market. It is not worth rushing with actions, since we could encounter a time lag within the value of 1.1145 in the beginning, having local bursts in the form of breakout by shadows. The main position will be closer to the US trading session, where it is worth identifying a downward surge in the form of inertia, where the market entry will be made.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical indicators in the minute and intraday areas are focused on the upward tact, which cannot be said about the daily periods that still work to lower.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 14/01/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The development organization Ethereum Classic warns the public about a possible fraud that is trying to exploit users the day after altcoin has finished its hard fork.

In today's tweet published by ETC Cooperative, it was stated that they removed the alleged fraud called "EAgharta" referring to the ETC hard fork "Agharta".

"Needless to say, EAgharta is a complete scam, probably from the same people who did something very similar in Atlantis. ETC Agharta did not cause the emergence of new" Agharta tokens. "They are just trying to deceive you," they wrote in a tweet.

It seems that the hard fork encouraged the scammers behind EAghart to try to use this event and market the fake "Agharta" tokens. To warn users, ETC Cooperative published a screenshot of EAgharta's Twitter and its requests to users to "safely apply for Ethereum Classic #Agharta."

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has made another small rally above the swing high located at the level of $146.94 and made a local high at the level of $149.91 (at the time of writing the analysis). The Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern that was responsible for creating the Double Top price reversal formation has been invalidated, but the high was made on lower momentum than the previous one, so there is a negative divergence between the momentum and market behavior. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $139.90 and $138.10, the next technical resistance is seen at the levels of $150.95 and $151.37.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $163.70

WR2 - $155.20

WR1 - $149.53

Weekly Pivot - $140.92

WS1 - $136.16

WS2 - $127.09

WS3 - $122.67

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. There is a possibility that the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 14/01/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The development organization Ethereum Classic warns the public about a possible fraud that is trying to exploit users the day after altcoin has finished its hard fork.

In today's tweet published by ETC Cooperative, it was stated that they removed the alleged fraud called "EAgharta" referring to the ETC hard fork "Agharta".

"Needless to say, EAgharta is a complete scam, probably from the same people who did something very similar in Atlantis. ETC Agharta did not cause the emergence of new" Agharta tokens. "They are just trying to deceive you," they wrote in a tweet.

It seems that the hard fork encouraged the scammers behind EAghart to try to use this event and market the fake "Agharta" tokens. To warn users, ETC Cooperative published a screenshot of EAgharta's Twitter and its requests to users to "safely apply for Ethereum Classic #Agharta."

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has made another small rally above the swing high located at the level of $146.94 and made a local high at the level of $149.91 (at the time of writing the analysis). The Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern that was responsible for creating the Double Top price reversal formation has been invalidated, but the high was made on lower momentum than the previous one, so there is a negative divergence between the momentum and market behavior. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $139.90 and $138.10, the next technical resistance is seen at the levels of $150.95 and $151.37.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $163.70

WR2 - $155.20

WR1 - $149.53

Weekly Pivot - $140.92

WS1 - $136.16

WS2 - $127.09

WS3 - $122.67

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. There is a possibility that the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 14/01/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

A United States District Judge ruled that a previous sanction ordering Craig Wright to hand over half his Bitcoins to Dave Kleiman is not valid.

Judge Bruce Reinhart issued a ruling in August on sanctions in a lengthy court battle over an alleged 1.1 million Bitcoin mined by Wright and Kleiman as part of a partnership in the early days of Bitcoin, shortly after Wright claimed to have invented it.

According to court documents filed with the US District Court in Florida on January 10, Judge Beth Bloom ruled that Reinhart's previous sanction order was inappropriate.

As previously reported in August 2019, Reinhart ruled that Wright had lied in presenting forged documents and recommended that he hand over 50% of the more than 1 million Bitcoin he allegedly extracted with Kleiman. However, a recent ruling states that this sanction was not appropriate because the recognized facts (that Wright had an equal partnership with Kleiman) do not specifically relate to the discovery of Bitcoin.

However, Judge Bloom concluded that Wright had not made good faith efforts to comply with the injunctions and should continue to pay attorney fees at Kleiman Estate. Last November, Kleiman Estate filed an application for legal costs of $ 658,000. This caused Wright to react immediately with a counterattack, asking to be thrown out because both the hours worked and the hourly rate were "unreasonable".

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has made another marginal higher high at the level of $8,520 (at the time of writing the analysis) and continues to an uptrend. Please notice, that this high was made on lower momentum than the previous one, so there is a negative divergence present. Before, the pair har tested the technical support located at the level of $7,601 - $7,581 and bounced higher, which means, the support had been recognized by the market participants as valid and they wanted to resume the recent uptrend. Moreover, there is no possibility to move lower at the price of Bitcoin unless the support is clearly violated. The bulls have temporary control over the market and the odds for another spike up are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,744

WR2 - $9,058

WR1 - $8,561

Weekly Pivot - $7,905

WS1 - $7,428

WS2 - $6,754

WS3 - $6,270

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. There is a possibility that the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 14/01/2020:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair made another wave down after a breakout from a narrow zone located between the levels of 1.3101 - 1.3017. The bears are still making pressure on the market because they are trying to test and possibly break out below the technical support at 1.2962 and head towards the next target located at the level of 1.2939. This is the last local support before the swing technical support located at the level of 1.2904. The negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for Cable, but the larger timeframe trend remains up (for now).

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3350

WR2 - 1.3274

WR1 - 1.3145

Weekly Pivot - 1.3077

WS1 - 1.2952

WS2 - 1.2870

WS3 - 1.2758

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is up, so all downward market moves will be treated as local corrections in the uptrend. In order to reverse the trend from up to down in the longer term, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2756 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 14/01/2020:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the technical support located at the level of 1.1091 and bulls have managed to retrace 38% of the previous wave down as the price has hit the level of 1.1144. The bounce still looks weak as the momentum is neutral, but bulls continue to develop a wave above the short-term trendline resistance around the level of 1.1144. If they make it, then the next target is seen at the levels of 1.1162 and 1.1174. The larger timeframe trend remains down to sideways with a possibility of a rally after the Ending Diagonal triangle termination around the level of 1.0877.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1297

WR2 - 1.1248

WR1 - 1.1178

Weekly Pivot - 1.1129

WS1 - 1.1052

WS2 - 1.1011

WS3 - 1.0932

Trading Recommendations:

Not much has changed since the last ween in a bigger perspective. Still, the best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.1040 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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EUR/USD. Peace, friendship, trade: China is no longer a "currency manipulator"

The euro-dollar pair stayed within the 11th figure at the end of Monday: the bears still exerted some pressure during the European session, but the bulls completely seized the initiative during the US session. As such, there was no reason for price growth - traders fell under the influence of general optimism regarding the recovery of the world economy amid the ceasefire in a trade war.

The information that Washington abolished the status of a currency manipulator for China only strengthened the optimistic mood in the market, providing, in particular, support for the euro. But the dollar, in turn, continues to demonstrate vulnerability after the release of weak Nonfarm last Friday. Market participants are now worried about the US currency, especially in anticipation of data on the growth of December inflation in the United States (release is scheduled for today). Even the hawkish statements of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Eric Rosengren, did not help the bulls yesterday - firstly, this year he does not have the right to vote on the Committee, and secondly, many of his colleagues take a more restrained position regarding the prospects of monetary policy. Therefore, traders ignored his speech, focusing on the events of the external fundamental background, in anticipation of an inflationary release.

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So, yesterday it became known that Washington no longer considers China a "currency manipulator" - the US Treasury Department excluded China from the list. The Finance Ministry also published a report according to which Beijing "agreed to take steps to reduce pressure on market mechanisms." The White House also expects that Chinese authorities will stop artificially keeping the RMB low, while opening up its market to foreign investors.

The devaluation of the renminbi has long provoked the anger of the White House, although Beijing did not tire of reassuring the Americans that it did not resort to competitive devaluation of the national currency. Nevertheless, Trump was confident that the PRC deliberately cheapens the national currency in order to neutralize (as far as possible) the effect of the new duties. In August last year, the yuan paired with the dollar for the first time in 11 years overcame the psychologically important level of 7.0. The yuan again became a weapon in the global trade confrontation. Earlier, China has already resorted to similar methods - for example, in August 2015, the PRC regulator pulled down the yuan against the dollar by more than five percent (from 6.209 to 6.447) in three days to stimulate declining exports. It was so unexpected that the indices of Asian and US exchanges fell by 1-2% in one day, responding to such a sharp move by the Chinese regulator.

Therefore, yesterday's news was perceived by investors with due optimism, and the yuan, together with the dollar, in turn, strengthened to six-month highs. This step by the United States was another confirmation that the ceremony of signing the first phase of the trade deal, scheduled for January 15, will nevertheless take place. Although, there were certain doubts on the eve of this - in one of his interviews, Donald Trump mentioned that the date of signing could be postponed, although he hopes to conclude a deal within the previously specified time.

The growth of a certain optimism in the foreign exchange market, especially amid an almost empty economic calendar, helped the EUR/USD bulls to stay afloat, that is, within the 11th figure. But today, the dynamics of the pair will be determined by macroeconomic statistics. First of all, we are talking about the release of data on the growth of US inflation. According to the consensus forecast, US inflation indicators should show positive dynamics in December. The general consumer price index should rise to 2.4% on an annualized basis and to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, can also show low growth in monthly terms (up to 0.2%) and remain at the same level (2.3%) in annual terms. If the real numbers are below enough predicted values, the dollar may again fall under a wave of sales, especially in the light of rather weak Nonfarms.

Fed members John Williams (head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has the right to vote on the Committee) can comment on the numbers published today. His speech will take place literally half an hour after the inflation release. He is a supporter of a wait-and-see attitude - at the end of December, he announced that he would prefer not to change rates "in the near future". Most likely, today he will voice similar rhetoric (this fact will only slightly affect the dynamics of the dollar). But if Williams suddenly softens his position, the US currency will be under significant pressure.

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From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair is at a crossroads, stuck on the midline of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. There are two ways: either to the support level of 1.1060 (the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud, which coincides with the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on D1), or to the resistance level 1.1220 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the same timeframe). Today's release may prompt traders to implement one or another price scenario.

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EUR/USD Price Movement For Tuesday January 14, 2020

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(Disclaimer)

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Indicator analysis: Daily review on GBP/USD for January 14, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the price may push off from the support line 1.2965 presented in a white bold line and start moving up with the goal of 1.3085 which is a pullback level of 38.2% presented in a red dotted line. If this line is reached, a continuation of work up with the goal of 1.3161 which is a pullback level of 61.8% presented in a red dotted line.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis-up;

- Fibonacci levels-up;

- Volumes-up;

- Candle analysis-up;

- Trend analysis-up;

- Bollinger lines-up;

- Weekly chart - the up.

General conclusion:

The price may start moving up today.

A downward scenario is unlikely but quite possible. From the level of 1.2990, the closing of yesterday's daily candle, work down with the goal of 1.2905, the lower fractal.

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Indicator analysis: Daily review on EUR/USD for January 14, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The price may continue to move up today with the first goal of a pullback level of 50.0% which is equivalent to 1.1164 presented in a blue dotted line. Upon reaching this line, the next target will be a pullback level of 61.8% which is at 1.1182 presented in a blue dotted line.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis-up;

- Fibonacci levels-up;

- Volumes-up;

- Candle analysis-up;

- Trend analysis-up;

- Bollinger lines-up;

- Weekly chart - the up.

General conclusion:

An upward trend is possible today.

An unlikely scenario is from the pullback level of 38.2% which is equivalent to 1.1146 presented in a blue dotted line, the price goes down to the support line 1.1091 presented in a white bold line.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for January 14, 2020

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GBP/JPY found support at 142.38 but should continue to be capped by resistance at 143.50 for renewed downside pressure through support at 143.50 for a decline to 140.81 on the way to the ideal target at 137.57.

A break above 143.50 will be of concern and indicate that wave iv has completed prematurely with the test of 140.81 and that wave v to at least 149.00 is developing.

R3: 143.77

R2: 143.50

R1: 143.28

Pivot: 142.90

S1: 142.56

S2: 142.38

S3: 142.15

Trading recommendation:

We are short GBP from 143.03 with our stop placed at 143.50. We will also buy GBP if 143.60 is broken.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 14, 2020

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EUR/JPY continues to move higher and has broken clearly above resistance at 122.22 telling us that our expectation for a second corrective decline to 119.26 likely is false. The break above 122.22 and more importantly above the former peak at 122.66 indicate that wave 2 completed with the test of 120.17 and wave 3 now is unfolding.

Short-term we expect a rally to 122.93 and then a correction towards support in the 121.81 - 122.09 area before higher again to 123.84 to complete wave i of 3.

R3: 123.84

R2: 123.34

R1: 122.93

Pivot: 122.43

S1: 122.14

S2: 121.77

S3: 121.43

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 122.55 was hit for a 80 pips loss. We will buy EUR at 122.25.

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USD Index Price Movement For Tuesday January 14, 2020

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After we have considered all the facts based on US Bonds with the maturity of 5,10, & 30 years, seasonal trends, and the commercial net hedge from the Commitment Of Traders Data, we conclude the USD Index is set to move with a bullish bias until March 2020 (approx the second week). In a short term, the index is expected to make a retracement as long as the price does not break out and closes below the 96.54 level. The bull setup movement is still in progress at least for now. The index will try to reach the symmetrical price level at 97.68 as its prime target and the BUY Side Liquidity Pool 97.82 as their secondary target.

Overall the bias for the USD index is bullish.

* Download link for detailed analysis in the .pdf version from here: https://uptobox.com/apkeb9c9atlu

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD Index Price Movement For Tuesday January 14, 2020

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After we have considered all the facts based on US Bonds with the maturity of 5,10, & 30 years, seasonal trends, and the commercial net hedge from the Commitment Of Traders Data, we conclude the USD Index is set to move with a bullish bias until March 2020 (approx the second week). In a short term, the index is expected to make a retracement as long as the price does not break out and closes below the 96.54 level. The bull setup movement is still in progress at least for now. The index will try to reach the symmetrical price level at 97.68 as its prime target and the BUY Side Liquidity Pool 97.82 as their secondary target.

Overall the bias for the USD index is bullish.

* Download link for detailed analysis in the .pdf version from here: https://uptobox.com/apkeb9c9atlu

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones of GBPUSD on 01/14/2020

The fall of the pair allows you to keep sales open after January 9, when the pair formed a reversal downward pattern. The target of the fall is still the weekly control zone of 1.2900-1.2862. A test of the indicated zone will be decisive for further movement. Part of the short position can be closed, and the remaining volume transferred to breakeven. The next medium-term goal will be a return to the monthly control zone of October at 1.2725, to which the pair had gone beyond last year.

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It is important to understand that it is better not to make purchases without the formation of a fase breakout or absorption pattern at this stage.

An alternative model of deep upward correction will be developed if the pair can absorb yesterday's fall. This will allow you to find better prices for selling the instrument. The first resistance zone will be WCZ 1/4 1.3065-1.3056, the test of which will make it possible to sell the instrument again in the direction of a bearish medium-term impulse.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones of EURUSD 01/14/2020

The growth of the pair occurs after the appearance of large demand and the test of the weekly control zone 1.1096-1.1082. This makes it possible to keep purchases from the specified zone. The purpose of the upward movement is WCZ 1/2 1.1164-1.1157. Reaching this zone will allow you to consolidate part of the purchases, the rest should be transferred to breakeven in case of a reversal model.

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The downward movement of the first September week is still an impulse. As long as the pair is trading below the WCZ 1/2, the upward movement will be corrective.

An alternative growth model will be developed if today's trading closes above the WCZ 1/2. This will indicate continued growth to the weekly CZ 1.1243-1.1229. Purchases made at the end of last week can be transferred to breakeven and left in the medium term. Closing purchases must be done if a false breakout pattern is formed at the WCZ 1/2 today or tomorrow.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on January 14, 2020

EUR/USD

On Monday, the euro grew by 29 points at the moment as part of the expected correction. The price received resistance from the MACD line on a four-hour chart. The line also coincides with the correctional level of 38.3%. Here, the correction can be considered completed.

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If the euro reverses down from current levels, the Marlin oscillator signal line on the daily chart will reverse from the boundary with the territory of an upward trend, at the moment the value of the line is 0.0008, but this penetration is not deep, a price reversal is possible. Overcoming yesterday's high may extend the growth to the Fibonacci level of 110.0% on the daily chart (1.1155).

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We are waiting for the euro to decline to support the MACD line and the Fibonacci level of 123.6% on the daily chart at a price of 1.1073. Overcoming the level opens the second target along the line of the price channel 1.1036.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on January 14, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound lost 71 points yesterday due to disappointing UK economic data. Industrial production shrank by -1.2% in November against expectations of -0.1%, November GDP fell by 0.3% against the forecast of 0.0%. NIESR's UK GDP forecast for December was 0.0%. There have even been rumors in the market that the Bank of England may lower the rate as early as January 30 if key indicators continue to be weak in the future.

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The price reached its closest target at the Fibonacci level of 161.8% on the daily chart (1.2968), but the gap has not been closed since the opening of the week. Today, the market will have such an opportunity - to close the gap, since important British inflationary data will be released only tomorrow, and today flat data are expected for the US CPI - the forecast for the base CPI is 2.3% y/y - unchanged.

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On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator did not form a strong convergence. The upward movement may be short-term, the target 1.3057 is the low to close the opening gap of the week, after which we expect the pound to fall further with targets at 1.2820 and 1.2730 (Fibonacci levels on daily).

In a slightly more distant future, until the end of the month, we are waiting for the pound to decline to the price of 1.2661 - here the Fibonacci reaction level of 138.2% converges on the weekly chart, the MACD line, the low of August 15, 2018.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on January 14, 2020

USD/JPY

Stock indices of the US market continue to set new records, along with them are rising Japanese indices and the USD/JPY pair. Yesterday, the S&P 500 grew by 0.70%, while the Nikkei 225 is adding a comparable 0.73% today. The China A50 Chinese stock index is up 0.40%, obviously, awaiting tomorrow's signing of the first part of a trade agreement with the United States. The United States also excluded China from the list of currency manipulators. Also, US corporate reports for the fourth quarter of 2019 are starting, forecasts are optimistic. Today, the largest banks are set to report: Citigroup (earnings forecast of $1.84 per share versus $1.61 in the third quarter), JPMorgan Chase & Co (forecast of $2.34 versus $1.98 earlier), Wells Fargo ($1.12 versus $1.21, but also good). Market growth may continue.

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So, if the price goes above the resistance of the red line of the price channel, we are waiting for the price in the target range of 110.83/98 formed by the extreme on November 27, 2017 and February 11, 2016. Here is the Fibonacci level of 123.6% of the growth branch from August 26 to December 2. The indicated trend line (110.26) is the upper limit of the downward price channel originating in August 2015, this is its important - overcoming the line can trigger the pair's growth by another order of two or three figures. The strength of the channel boundary is supported by the Fibonacci level of 110.0%.

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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin forms a divergence, perhaps before attacking the upper boundary of the price channel, the price will subside to the support of the MACD line on daily (109.50).

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs on January 14

Forecast for January 14:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1177, 1.1151, 1.1132, 1.1087, 1.1058, 1.1031 and 1.1015. Here, we continue to monitor the local descending structure of January 6. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1087. In this case, the target is 1.1058. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.1056 will lead to movement to a potential target - 1.1015. In turn, price consolidation is in the range of 1.1015 - 1.1031 and from here, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1132 - 1.1151. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1177. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the local descending structure of January 6

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1153 Take profit: 1.1175

Buy: 1.1178 Take profit: 1.1204

Sell: 1.1085 Take profit: 1.1060

Sell: 1.1056 Take profit: 1.1034

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3113, 1.3073, 1.3027, 1.2937, 1.2874 and 1.2838. Here, the continuation of the development of the downward cycle of December 31 is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2937. In this case, the target is 1.2874. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2838. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

It is possible that the correction can be avoided after the breakdown of the level of 1.3027. Here, the first goal is 1.3073. The level of 1.3113 is the key support for the downward structure. Its passage in price will have the potential to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the potential goal is 1.3178.

The main trend is the descending structure of December 31

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3027 Take profit: 1.3073

Buy: 1.3074 Take profit: 1.3113

Sell: 1.2935 Take profit: 1.2875

Sell: 1.2872 Take profit: 1.2838

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9832, 0.9810, 0.9778, 0.9751, 0.9706, 0.9685 and 0.9664. Here, we determine the next goals from the local ascending structure on January 8. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9751. In this case, the target is 0.9778. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9780 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.9810. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9832, upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9706 - 0.9685. There is a high probability of a reversal to the top from this range. The breakdown of the level of 0.9685 will lead to the development of a downward structure. Here, the first potential target is 0.9664.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of January 8, the zone of initial conditions

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9751 Take profit: 0.9775

Buy : 0.9780 Take profit: 0.9810

Sell: 0.9705 Take profit: 0.9688

Sell: 0.9683 Take profit: 0.9664

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 111.38, 110.78, 110.39, 109.81, 109.58 and 109.23. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of January 8. At the moment, we expect a movement to the level of 110.39. The breakdown of which will allow us to count on movement to the level of 110.78. Price consolidation is near this value. The breakdown of the level of 110.80 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 111.38.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 109.81 - 109.58. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 109.23. This level is key support for the top.

The main trend: the upward cycle of January 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.40 Take profit: 110.76

Buy : 110.80 Take profit: 111.35

Sell: 109.80 Take profit: 109.58

Sell: 109.55 Take profit: 109.25

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3157, 1.3126, 1.3112, 1.3090, 1.3062, 1.3040 and 1.3015. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of January 7. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3090. In this case, the target is 1.3112. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3112 - 1.3126. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3157. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation are possible in the range of 1.3062 - 1.3040. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3015. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of January 7, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3090 Take profit: 1.3112

Buy : 1.3126 Take profit: 1.3155

Sell: 1.3062 Take profit: 1.3042

Sell: 1.3038 Take profit: 1.3015

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6972, 0.6955, 0.6933, 0.6915, 0.6887, 0.6871, 0.6851, 0.6827 and 0.6793. Here, the price forms the potential for the upward movement of January 9 in the correction of the downward cycle of December 31. Short-term movement to the top is expected in the range of 0.6915 - 0.6933. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.6955. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6972, upon reaching this value we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 0.6887 - 0.6871. The breakdown of the last value will have the subsequent development of the downward structure. Here, the first goal is 0.6851. As a potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6793. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6825.

The main trend is the descending structure of December 31, the formation of potential for the top of January 9

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6915 Take profit: 0.6930

Buy: 0.6935 Take profit: 0.6955

Sell : 0.6887 Take profit : 0.6873

Sell: 0.6870 Take profit: 0.6852

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 123.89, 123.32, 123.06, 122.33, 122.09 and 121.80. Here, we monitor the development of the upward cycle of January 8 and currently, a movement to the level of 123.06 is expected. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 123.06 - 123.32. The breakdown of the level of 123.35 will lead to a movement to a potential target - 123.89. We expect a pullback to the bottom from this level.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 122.33 - 122.09. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 121.80. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward cycle of January 8

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 123.06 Take profit: 123.30

Buy: 123.35 Take profit: 123.85

Sell: 122.33 Take profit: 122.10

Sell: 122.07 Take profit: 121.84

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 145.11, 144.53, 143.68, 142.34, 141.87, 141.31 and 140.66. Here, we are following the development of the upward structure of January 3, after the abolition of the downward trend. We expect further upward movement after the passage at the price level of 143.70. In this case, the target is 144.53. Price consolidation is near this value. For the potential level for the top, we consider level 145.11, from which we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 142.34 - 141.87. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 141.31. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of January 3

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 143.70 Take profit: 144.50

Buy: 144.55 Take profit: 145.10

Sell: 142.34 Take profit: 141.90

Sell: 141.85 Take profit: 141.35

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GBP/USD. January 13. Results of the day. British economy: 2 steps forward, 5 steps back

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 111p - 118p - 89p - 111p - 55p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 97p (high).

The British pound continued its downward movement on Monday, January 13, and also worked out the first support level of 1.2975, as well as the lower level of volatility that we gave in the morning, 1.2956. Thus, now the pound/dollar pair is ready for an upward correction, which is unlikely to be strong or even tangible. As we have repeatedly said, the overall fundamental background remains unambiguously in favor of the British pound, so traders have no choice but to continue to sell the British currency, despite the proximity of Brexit, which was identified with almost solving all the problems of the United Kingdom. However, we see that Brexit is approaching, it is no longer possible to cancel it, and there are only more problems. We will not dwell on geopolitical problems, which we have also talked about more than once. It will be exclusively about the problems in Great Britain's economy. Recall that for several consecutive months the Bank of England has been walking around the decision to lower the key rate, and only fears for the consequences of Brexit, which starts on January 31, prevented most members of the monetary committee from taking this step. The central bank is simply reinsured in this regard, trying to postpone lowering the rate as a last resort. In his last speech, the head of the BoE, Mark Carney, almost openly stated that the regulator could go on easing monetary policy. And it sounded "maybe" as "sure to go," because there are simply no other options. The economy will not suddenly begin to grow for no reason at all. Brexit, which, we repeat, has not even started yet (that is, the last three years can not even be called Brexit procedure, these were just preparations), already has a very negative impact on the British economy. The economy is losing around $70 billion annually. We can also add failed macroeconomic statistics in the last 3-4 months to these financial losses, which was supplemented today with new excellent reports.

Industrial production data showed how weak the UK economy is at this time. The total indicator decreased by 1.6% in annual terms instead of the forecasted 1.4%. On a monthly basis, there was a decrease of 1.2% in November instead of the projected 0.1%. The manufacturing industry lost about 2.0% y/y. Furthermore, data on GDP for November were published, according to which the indicator fell (!!!) by 0.3%. If in recent months we have observed body movements of the indicator about 0%, now now in one fell swoop for one month the loss amounted to 0.3%. This is a lot. Such data were quite enough so traders again rushed to sell the British currency. An absolutely logical solution and now there is only one question. What will the BoE do at the next meeting, which will take place on January 30, that is, in two weeks? We believe that, firstly, the number of voting members of the monetary committee will increase from two to at least three or four, and, secondly, the British regulator should finally begin to prepare markets for a possible easing of monetary policy, because there is simply no other way. In general, we believe that the central bank will in any case be with dovish rhetoric, which will then be transformed into the bearish mood of currency traders. Consequently, the pound now has no reason to strengthen, and in two weeks these bases may become even less.

Tomorrow, the British pound may be slightly helped by the consumer price index in the United States, which is projected to rise to 2.3% y/y. The forecast is high, respectively, the real value may be slightly lower. However, on Wednesday, January 15, inflation for December will be published in Britain, which has recently managed to accelerate and reach the level of 1.5% y/y. However, given today's macroeconomic statistics, it can be assumed that inflation may fail in December.

The technical picture now presupposes a corrective movement, however, given the nature of macroeconomic statistics and in case of overcoming the level of 1.2975, we can expect continued movement down and without a pullback.

Trading recommendations:

GBP/USD continues to move down. Thus, traders are advised to stay on the pound/dollar pair with the target of a support level of 1.2894 until a rebound from the level of 1.2975 (or 1.2956). It is recommended that purchases of the British currency be returned no earlier than the price consolidation above the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines with the first goals of 1.3150 and 1.3175.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. January 13. Results of the day. New stumbling block in US-China Talks

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 49p - 64p - 67p - 28p - 44p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 51p (average).

The EUR/USD pair ends the first trading day of the week with an upward correction, which began on Friday. The euro/dollar pair has currently worked out the critical Kijun-sen line, which is the first and main goal of any correction when we talk about the Ichimoku indicator. Thus, now traders have the right to wait for either the pair to clear from this line or to overcome it. The first option will allow the pair to resume the downward trend, and we believe that this option is most likely. The second option - will allow the correction to continue with the goal of the Senkou Span B line, which is even stronger than the Kijun-sen line and from which a rebound is also possible. Volatility on the first trading day of the week with an empty calendar of macroeconomic events is absolutely low, only 25 points. Thus, there can be no talk of working out any of the boundaries of the corridor of volatility today.

Meanwhile, markets continue to closely monitor developments related to the signing of a trade agreement between the United States and China, the so-called "first phase" thereof. Today, January 13, the head of the Chinese delegation, Vice Premier of the State Council of the PRC Liu He arrived in Washington. It is expected that the parties will sign the very controversial agreement by today or tomorrow, which, it would seem, should be the first step towards reconciliation of the parties. "Contradictory" because, firstly, most of the details of this agreement are covered by secrecy, and secondly, most of the US duties on Chinese imports will remain in effect. Only a small share of duties on goods with a total amount of about $60 billion will be canceled. Recall that all imports from China to the United States are in excess of $500 billion. But according to the same agreement, China agreed to significantly increase the volume of purchases of agricultural products in the United States, with both sides giving completely different figures. However, in any case, if the parties sign the agreement, it will be a significant event. Donald Trump himself has already said that immediately after the signing of the first phase he will go to China to negotiate a "second phase".

By the way, we would like to note how quickly the fights between Washington and Beijing over the adoption of the Uighur and Hong Kong laws by the US Congress subsided. Beijing vigorously protested these laws, accusing the United States of interfering in China's internal affairs, and simply stopped doing so at some point. That is, it seems that the parties are really important now - to agree on the end of the trade war. However, Washington, meanwhile, continues to "swing rights." According to the latest information, the United States intends to get the Chinese government to impose sanctions on Iran in the form of refusal to buy Iranian oil. We have already spoken about the military conflict between America and Iran several times. It remains only to add that, in principle, all US sanctions have no special significance, since Iran can sell its oil anywhere and to anyone. In practice, 70% of Iranian oil goes to China. According to Stephen Mnuchin, "Iran finances terrorist groups with the money received from China." Thus, the United States wants to get a refusal from the largest consumer of Iranian oil. The US Treasury Secretary also said: "Thanks to the sanctions, Washington was able to reduce Iran's oil exports. Probably more than 95%." It is difficult to say how true this figure is. It's even more difficult to say why Beijing should again follow Washington's occasion. China has no conflict with Iran, respectively, the United States need to offer something in return for abandoning Iranian oil. Will this new stumbling block hinder the signing of a trade agreement?

From a technical point of view, we continue to witness the correction, which may be completed tomorrow. As we can see, today the euro/dollar pair failed to demonstrate any serious movement, but tomorrow inflation in the US for December will be published, which is forecasted with another acceleration, which could return demand for the US dollar in the foreign exchange market. Thus, we do not recommend trading against the trend in any case. So, you need to wait for the fundamental factors that complete the correction or, conversely, give the bulls a large amount of strength to form an upward trend.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to adjust. Thus, now it is recommended for traders to wait until the correction is completed and resume trading on a decline with the target support level of 1.1060, however, the price should be below the Kijun-sen line. It will be possible to consider purchases of the euro/dollar pair no earlier than when the traders of the Senkou Span B line overcome with the first goals of 1.1168 and 1.1188.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com