Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 13, 2019

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The red wave iv triangle has behaved just as expected and now looks complete, but to confirm that red wave v higher towards 144.58 is developing, we still need a break above minor resistance at 140.59 and more importantly a break above 140.75.

Short-term a slightly deep decline closer to 139.58 can not be excluded before the final leg of the triangle is complete, but it all comes down to a break above minor resistance at 140.59 as the trigger for the impulsive rally higher.

R3: 141.50

R2: 141.00

R1: 140.75

Pivot: 140.59

S1: 140.12

S2: 139.85

S3: 139.58

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 140.12 with our stop placed at 138.75. If you are not long GBP yet, the buy a break above 140.59 and place you stop at 139.40.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 13, 2019

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The correction in red wave ii has turned into a triple zig-zag correction (x-y-z). Even though the individual zig-zags are simple structures, when added into a triple structure it becomes a complex corrective structure. With the z-wave reaching our ideal target at 119.87 perfectly the correction in red wave ii now is regarded as complete and a break above minor resistance at 120.48 and more importantly a break above 121.14 will confirm the next impulsive rally higher to 123.59 and longer term much higher levels remains expected.

R3: 121.48

R2: 121.11

R3: 120.88

Pivot: 120.48

S1: 120.10

S2: 119.87

S3: 119.55

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 with our stop placed at 119.00. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 120.48 and place you stop at 119.75

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Overview of EUR/USD on November 13th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". American inflation may stop the euro

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -97.3833

Yesterday, the EUR/USD currency pair ended again in a downward movement. Thus, the downward trend continues, the bears continue to hold the market in their hands, and the US currency does not need fundamental factors to continue to be in demand. At least in the first two trading days of the week, no important macroeconomic report was published in the European Union and the United States. So, what to expect from a currency pair? If you look purely at the technique, the continuation of the movement down to two-year lows, from which the bulls with great difficulty took the euro/dollar pair. However, after two days of outright calm, traders will finally begin to receive macroeconomic data and, I must say, quite important data.

Everything will begin with the publication of the consumer price index in Germany for October. This time, the final value. Experts' expectations are reduced to the figure of +1.1% y/y. Is it worth saying once again that inflation in Germany is interesting in itself, but is more considered to predict the future of the European inflation rate? Accordingly, its decline with a probability of 80-90% will result in a slowdown in EU inflation, which can lead to another fall in the European currency. Next, the European Union will publish an indicator of industrial production for September. There is nothing optimistic to expect. The best thing that can happen with the volume of industrial production – they will decrease a little less than experts expect (-2.3% y/y and -0.3% m/m). In the States, the consumer price index for October will also be published today and options are possible. The core inflation rate is expected to reach +1.7% y/y and in monthly terms – + 0.3%. Thus, although it is lower by 0.3% y/y than the target of the Fed (and the ECB too), nevertheless, American inflation is close to it, unlike the European one. Since the Fed has already lowered the rate three times, inflation at the end of October may remain unchanged. It will be neither bullish nor bearish. But the slowdown in inflation in the United States can stop the fall of the euro/dollar currency pair. The most interesting events are left for the evening.

Today, Jerome Powell will speak in the US Congress before the Joint Economic Committee. According to many experts, three US monetary easing was enough for the US economy to stop showing signs of a slowdown. Thus, Jerome Powell, with a high probability, will declare the "good" state of monetary policy and the economy, however, he cannot but mention the risks that are listed at each of his speeches. Of course, the head of the Fed should express the hope that the US-China trade conflict will end as soon as possible. Thus, no one expects the "dovish" rhetoric from Jerome Powell. Accordingly, the US dollar is unlikely to fall under market pressure after his speech. And if so, then the only event of the day after which the fall of the euro currency may stop is the report on inflation in the United States if traders see figures below +1.7% y/y.

From a technical point of view, all indicators indicate the continuation of the downward trend. Not a single factor speaks in favor of the growth of the euro. We have repeatedly said that the main hopes for strengthening the euro are associated with negative economic data from overseas. So, if today's statistics from the United States disappoint, the euro will have a chance for a small increase. However, both German inflation and European industrial production mustn't fail. And production in Europe will fail with almost 100% probability.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.0986

S2 – 1.0925

S3 – 1.0864

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1047

R2 – 1.1108

R3 – 1.1169

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar resumed its downward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to sell the euro again with the target of the Murray level of "4/8" - 1.0986. Volatility at this time remains low, but today it can gro. Purchases of the pair are now impractical since there are no fundamental or technical reasons for this.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue line of the unidirectional movement

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple line of the unidirectional movement

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – the red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

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Control zones NZDUSD 11/13/19

Today, the WCZ 1/2 0.6387-0.6381 was broken, which indicates a strong growth in demand. If today's close occurs above this zone, it will indicate the formation of a reversal pattern. Purchases will come to the fore, and the first growth target will be the weekly control zone of 0.6453-0.6441.

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Since the growth was driven by the news, its takeover could happen quite quickly. Closing below the WCZ 1/2 in today's US session will allow you to enter a short position. The target of the decline will be the minimum of the current week.

An alternative model will be developed if news growth continues at the European and American sessions. This will not allow you to enter into purchases at favorable prices and will wait for the weekly control zone test to find a pattern for sale.

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Daily CZ – daily control zone. A zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ – weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ – monthly control zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 13. Bulls stayed above 1.2825, but growth is limited by resistance at

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Pound buyers completed their task yesterday and managed to stay above 1.2825, which has now transformed into the support of 1.2835. However, the lack of benchmarks did not allow the bulls to go above the high of 1.2865. The release of quite important fundamental statistics is planned for today, which can lead to a surge in volatility. Good inflation reports will lead to a breakthrough of resistance of 1.2864, and consolidation at this level will be the first signal to buy the pound in order to update the weekly highs of 1.2895 and 1.2915, where I recommend profit taking. The formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.2834 will also preserve the probability of continued upward correction in GBP/USD. Otherwise, it is best to count on new purchases from monthly lows in the areas of 1.2799 and 1.2769.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Sellers will try to keep the pair below the resistance of 1.2864 today, and the formation of a false breakout there, together with weak data on inflation in the UK, will only increase pressure on the pound. However, a more important task for sellers will be to return under the support of 1.2834, a breakthrough of which will lead to the sale of GBP/USD to the low of 1.2799 and 1.2769, where I recommend profit taking. In the scenario of further growth of the pair above the resistance of 1.2864, short positions can be opened by rebounding from the weekly high of 1.2895, as well as from a larger resistance of 1.2915. It is very important for sellers to break below this week's lows today, which will maintain the downward trend and also form a new major pressure on the pair. In this case, the November 11 growth can be tied to the demolition of stop orders.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates market uncertainty with a further direction.

Bollinger bands

If the pair decreases, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2830. The pound will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.2864.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 13. The euro will resume growth and regain the level of 1.1025, but subject

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Buyers of the European currency lost the level of 1.1025 yesterday, and US President Donald Trump's speech did not make any serious changes to the market, since in general it was more informative in nature about how everything is good in the US. Today, bulls need the same return to the resistance level of 1.1025 as yesterday. The data on inflation in Germany and industrial production in the eurozone will help in this. In the event of good reports, a break of 1.1025 will lead to a larger upward correction with the update of the highs of 1.1054 and 1.1081, where I recommend profit taking. If the pressure on EUR/USD continues to persist, then I recommend that you look at long positions only after updating the low of 1.0995, or buy immediately on the rebound from a support of 1.0965.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The main task of sellers in the first half of the day will be to maintain the resistance of 1.1025. The formation of a false breakout there, which may occur after a weak report on inflation in Germany and the volume of industrial production in the eurozone, will lead to a larger decrease in EUR/USD to the area of lows 1.0995 and 1.0965, where I recommend profit taking. The pressure on the euro will only weaken if the bulls manage to regain the resistance of 1.1025. In this case, with an upward correction, the first active short positions can be observed in the region of the high of 1.1054, however, larger sellers will prefer to return to the market only after the test of the area of 1.1081.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates continued pressure on the euro.

Bollinger bands

A breakthrough of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1020 will strengthen the demand for the euro. A break of the lower boundary in the area of 1.1005 will lead to the formation of new pressure on the pair.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, November 13,2019

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When the European market opens, such economic data as German 10-y Bond Auction, Industrial Production m/m, and German Final CPI m/m will be published. The US will release such economic data as Federal Budget Balance, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:Breakout BUY Level: 1.1064. Strong Resistance: 1.1058. Original Resistance: 1.1047. Inner Sell Area: 1.1036.Target Inner Area: 1.1010. Inner Buy Area: 1.0984. Original Support: 1.0973. Strong Support: 1.0962. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0956. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, November 13,2019

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Japan will release the report on PPI y/y. The US will publish such economic data as Federal Budget Balance. Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m. So, there is a probabilitythat the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3:109.58. Resistance. 2:109.38. Resistance. 1:109.16. Support. 1:108.89. Support. 2:108.68. Support. 3:108.46. (Disclaimer)

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Control zones GBPUSD 11/13/19

When building a trading plan, it is necessary to take into account the fact that the pair has consolidated below the weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.2820-1.2801. This indicates a downward priority. In addition, testing the main resistance zones must be considered for the formation of the pattern of "absorption". This will enter the sale at a bargain price.

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The above model will provide an opportunity to enter the direction of the weakening British pound. The first goal will be the minimum of last week.

In case of consolidation above the Weekly Control Zone 1/4 at today's American session, the formation of the medium-term accumulation zone will continue. The growth target will be Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.2979-1.2960. A test of this zone will allow you to determine the following objectives. While the pair is trading below 1.2979, the downward movement remains a priority, and the probability of updating the November low is 75%.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on November 13, 2019

GBP/USD

The British pound did not change much in price as a result of yesterday, technically strengthening the conditions for a downward turn. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart outlined a downward reversal with the growth territory. The immediate goal of the decline now is the November 8 low (1.2768), which almost coincides with the correction level of 23.6%. Leaving the price below the level opens the second target at 1.2703, then 1.2608 - the correction level of 38.2%. Here the price may meet the growing line of MACD, after which a pronounced correction is likely.

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On the four-hour chart, there is still the possibility that the pound could slightly grow to yesterday's high, but this time the price will have to meet the MACD line, as a result of which the price can get a strong impulse to decrease. The Marlin oscillator line lies in a lateral movement above the boundary with the territory of the negative trend, a downward movement can follow without a preliminary price increase.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 13, 2019

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen does not have enough strength to work out the resistance of the green price channel with an approximate target of 109.83. The stock market is the main source of pressure for the US dollar: the US S&P 500 has not changed in price over the past four sessions, the Japanese Nikkei 225 is on the horizon for the sixth session. On the daily chart, the price is held by the red indicator line of balance. According to the Marlin oscillator, a double divergence is formed, but the signal line is turning upward from the boundary with the decline zone. Departure of the price under the support of the red price channel of 108.68 will provoke a fall to the lower line at 107.77. The signal line of Marlin at the moment of price transition under 108.68 will be in the zone of negative numbers.

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On a four-hour chart, the price is held by the MACD line. If we assume that the market intends to overcome this support, then the testimony of Marlin, who is now in the declining trend zone, may be true. If we allow the market to grow, then development will come from a higher (daily) scale.

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In general, the situation is precarious for any of the scenarios; the price is in an equilibrium state, creating an increased risk for trade.

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EUR/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

Price is approaching our first support at 1.26885 where we are expecting a bounce to our first resistance level at 1.28410.

Entry: 1.09994

78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support

Take Profit : 1.10654

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, previous breakout level

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USD/CAD pull back below resistance

NZDUSD to pull back below resistance at 1.32550.

Entry: 1.32460

78.6% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 1.32040

Why it's good : 38.20% Fibonacci retracement

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USD/CHF to bounce from 1st support, potential rally!

Entry: 0.9907

Why it's good: Horizontal overlap support

50% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.9983

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension

78.6% Fibonacci extension

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#USDX vs AUD / USD vs NZD / USD vs USD / CAD (H4). Comprehensive analysis of movement options for November 13, 2019 APLs

Minute (H4)

Commodity currencies - where will we move? - A comprehensive analysis of the options for the development of the movement #USDX vs AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD from November 13, 2019 on the operational scale of Minute (time frame h4 ).

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US dollar Index

The movement of the dollar index #USDX from November 13, 2019 will be due to the development and range breakdown direction :

  • resistance level of 98.40 on the lower boundary of ISL38.2 Minuette operational scale forks;
  • support level of 98.30 on the initial line of SSL Minuette operating scale forks.

In case of breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (resistance level of 98.40), the movement of the dollar index will continue in the equilibrium zone (98.40 - 98.77 - 99.14) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Consecutive breakdown of support levels :

- 98.30 (the initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale forks);

- 98.25 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks);

will make the development of the #USDX movement relevant within the 1/2 Median Line channels of the Minuette operational scale (98.25 - 98.00 - 97.75) and Minuette (98.15 - 98.04 - 97.92).

The markup of #USDX movement options from November 13, 2019 is shown in the animated chart.

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Australian dollar vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the Australian dollar AUD / USD from November 13, 2019 will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (0.6858 - 0.6840 - 0.6825) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details of the development of the boundaries of this equilibrium zone are presented in the animated chart.

With a combined breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 0.6825) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks and 1/2 Median Line Minuette (0.6820), the downward movement of the Australian dollar can be continued to the goals: the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (0.6793) - the end line SSL Minuette (0.6775) - the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 (0.6765) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks

The breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 0.6858) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks will determine the development of the upward movement AUD / USD, the goals of which will be: the initial SSL line (0.6895) of the Minuette operational scale forks - the initial SSL line Minuette (0.6905) - maximum0.6931.

From November 13, 2019, we look at the layout of the AUD / USD movement options on the animated chart.

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New Zealand dollar vs US dollar

Starting from November 13, 2019, the development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar NZD / USD will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (0.6365 - 0.6345 - 0.6330) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The marking of the development of the above levels is shown in the animation chart.

The consecutive breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 0.6330) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks and 1/2 Median Line Minuette (0.6325) will determine the development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar to the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6275) fof the Minuette operational scale forks and the final line FSL (0.6265 of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Now, with a combined breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 0.6365) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks and the upper boundary of the channel 1/2 of the Median Line (0.6375) of the of the Minuette operational scale forks, the upward movement of NZD / USD can continue to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (0.6415 - 0.6430 - 0.6445).

The marking options for movement NZD / USD from November 13, 2019 are present on the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Canadian dollar

The development of the movement of the Canadian dollar USD / CAD from November 13, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.3240 on the median line of the Minuette operational scale forks;
  • support level of 1.3215 at the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks

A consecutive breakdown of the support level of 1.3215 will make it relevant to continue the development of the Canadian dollar movement within the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.3215 - 1.3250 - 1.3190) and the equilibrium zone (1.3197 - 1.3175 - 1.3157) of the Minuette operational scale with the prospect of reaching a local minimum 1.3114.

On the contrary, the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3240 on the Median Line of the Minuette operational scale forks will direct the development of the USD / CAD movement to the targets: local maximum 1.3260 - the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (1.3280) the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching a maximum of 1.3347.

From November 13, 2019, we look at the layout of USD / CAD movement options in the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders " sell " or " buy ")

The formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound Sterling - 11.9%;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on November 13

Forecast for November 13:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1108, 1.1090, 1.1064, 1.1044, 1.1013, 1.0973 and 1.0941. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 4. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1013. In this case, the target is 1.0973. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.0941. Upon reaching this value, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.1044 - 1.1064. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1090. The range 1.1090 - 1.1108 is a key support for the downward structure, before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1045 Take profit: 1.1062

Buy: 1.1065 Take profit: 1.1090

Sell: 1.1012 Take profit: 1.0975

Sell: 1.0971 Take profit: 1.0941

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3032, 1.2997, 1.2946, 1.2905, 1.2876, 1.2840, 1.2817, 1.2790 and 1.2765. Here, the price forms the expressed initial conditions for the top of November 8. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.2876 - 1.2905. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to movement to the level of 1.2946. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.2946 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2997. We consider the level 1.3032 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

A short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2840 - 1.2817. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2790. This level is a key support for the top, its passage at the price will lead to the formation of a local descending structure. Here, the first goal is 1.2765.

The main trend is building potential for the top of November 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2876 Take profit: 1.2905

Buy: 1.2907 Take profit: 1.2944

Sell: 1.2840 Take profit: 1.2818

Sell: 1.2815 Take profit: 1.2792

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0025, 1.0001, 0.9968, 0.9933, 0.9919, 0.9900, 0.9890 and 0.9865. Here, we are following the medium-term upward structure from November 1. At the moment, the price is in correction and forms the potential for the bottom from November 8. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9968. In this case, the target is 1.0001. Price consolidation is near this level. We consider the level 1.0025 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9933 - 0.9919. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9900. The range of 0.9900 - 0.9890 is the key support. Its price passage will allow you to expect movement to a potential target - 0.9863.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure from November 1, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9970 Take profit: 1.0000

Buy : 1.0002 Take profit: 1.0025

Sell: 0.9917 Take profit: 0.9900

Sell: 0.9890 Take profit: 0.9865

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.12, 109.79, 109.54, 109.28, 109.03, 108.84 and 108.62. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the local ascending structure on November 7. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 109.28. Here, the first goal is 109.54. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow you to count on moving to 109.79. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 110.12.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 109.03 - 108.84. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the cancellation of the local ascending structure from November 7. Here, the first goal is 108.62.

The main trend: the upward cycle of November 1, the local structure of November 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.28 Take profit: 109.52

Buy : 109.55 Take profit: 109.77

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 108.82 Take profit: 108.62

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3332, 1.3268, 1.3246, 1.3208, 1.3185 and 1.3156. Here, we are following the medium-term upward structure from October 29, as well as the local structure for the top from November 5. Short-term movement to the top is expected in the range of 1.3246 - 1.3268. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the potential target is 1.3332, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3208 - 1.3185. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3156. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the medium-term initial conditions for the upward movement of November 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3246 Take profit: 1.3266

Buy : 1.3270 Take profit: 1.3332

Sell: 1.3208 Take profit: 1.3187

Sell: 1.3183 Take profit: 1.3156

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6895, 0.6879, 0.6866, 0.6845, 0.6836, 0.6810 and 0.6793. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 5. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 0.6854 - 0.6836. In this case, the target is 0.6810. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6793, upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6866 - 0.6879. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6895. This level is a key support for the downward structure from November 5.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 5.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6866 Take profit: 0.6877

Buy: 0.6880 Take profit: 0.6895

Sell : 0.6836 Take profit : 0.6812

Sell: 0.6808 Take profit: 0.6793

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 120.87, 120.62, 120.41, 120.03, 119.83, 119.38 and 119.07. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of October 30. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 120.03 - 119.83. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 119.38. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 119.07. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 120.41 - 120.62. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 120.87. This level is a key support for the downward trend.

The main trend is the downward cycle of October 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 120.41 Take profit: 120.62

Buy: 120.64 Take profit: 120.87

Sell: 120.03 Take profit: 119.85

Sell: 119.80 Take profit: 119.38

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 141.57, 141.27, 140.72, 139.36, 138.97, 138.51, 138.19 and 137.71. Here, as the main structure, we consider the downward trend of November 5, and the price has also formed the potential for the top of November 11. The level of 140.72 is the key support for the initial conditions of November 5. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of the ascending structure of November 11. Here, the first potential target is 141.27. Price consolidation is in the range of 141.27 - 141.57. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 139.36 - 138.97.

The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement to the level of 138.51. Price consolidation is in the range of 138.51 - 138.19. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 137.71. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback in the correction.

The main trend is the descending structure of November 5, the potential for the top of November 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 140.72 Take profit: 141.27

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 139.36 Take profit: 138.98

Sell: 138.95 Take profit: 138.51

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: the euro can be programmed to briefly drift below $1.10

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The greenback has risen in price by almost 1.2% over the past week. The strengthening of the US currency was primarily due to increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could take a long pause after three consecutive interest rate cuts.

The dollar bulls were also supported by a series of relatively good US statistical data, the Fed's confidence in the strength of the country's economy and the sale of US Treasury bonds on the market.

In November, the yield on 10-year Treasuries, approaching the 2% mark, increased by 25 basis points, which made it possible for the USD index to win back part of the losses after sagging in October.

"In this short week because of the holiday in the US - the treasury market was closed on Monday in connection with Veterans Day - a new round of dollar growth will depend on whether the yield on 10-year securities exceeds 2%," ING currency strategists said.

This level of profitability has not been observed since the beginning of August, the period before the escalation of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing. Given that in other developed markets, rates are either much lower or completely negative, investing in treasuries now looks the most profitable.

"Breaking up the 2% mark is likely to mean a stronger dollar versus low-yielding currencies, especially against the yen, given that the correlation of the USD/JPY pair with US yields is very strong," ING representatives said.

However, they noted that the recent sale of eurozone bonds, which increased their yield, did not help the euro.

"The sell-off on the bond market also affected European markets, and a stronger yield curve provided some support for the besieged European banking sector. However, this did not transform in support of the euro, which can be planned out for a short-term drift below $1.10," the ING reported.

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According to experts, the main thing that the single European currency will experience in the coming days is the speech of US President Donald Trump at the Economic Club in New York (Tuesday) and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress (Wednesday), as well as German data GDP for the third quarter (Thursday).

At the weekend, the head of the White House said that Washington and Beijing would have very good trade negotiations, but the United States would only enter into a deal with China if it would be beneficial for the US side.

Now investors are waiting for D. Trump first of all explanations about the rollback of US tariffs on Chinese imports. However, he can report another important piece of news. In May, Washington took time to reflect until mid-November on the issue of increasing duties on deliveries of cars from the European Union to the US market. European officials believe that these duties will not be introduced, however, when dealing with an eccentric person like D. Trump, you can't be sure of anything.

Another important event of this week will be a speech by the head of the Fed to the Congress Joint Economic Committee, in the framework of which J. Powell will shed light on the further policy of the regulator. Last month, he made it clear that the last round of monetary easing was more likely a "reinsurance", and the market is waiting for the Fed chairman to confirm these words.

Meanwhile, expectations for German GDP data release are putting pressure on the euro. More than half of the 39 experts recently surveyed by Bloomberg predict a 0.1% decline in the third quarter. This will be evidence of a technical recession. Only three respondents expect to see the indicator grow by 0.1%, while the rest expect zero dynamics.

If Germany still manages to avoid a recession, then this will be good news for the bulls on the euro and allow them to go on the counterattack.

It is assumed that the speeches of D. Trump, J. Powell, as well as reports on German GDP and US retail sales will help answer the question of whether EUR/USD will be able to find the low near the bottom of the 10th figure. Falling quotes below November lows will open the way to 1.0965. A breakout of resistance at 1.1040–1.1045, on the contrary, will increase the chances of growth to 1.1075 and 1.1110.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro - a life support for emerging markets currencies?

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The European currency seeks to score points and squeeze the greenback. According to experts, the euro almost managed to cope with this task, but only in relation to the currencies of developing countries. The greenback is still leading in the EUR/USD pair.

The popularity of the euro as a financing currency is constantly growing in the markets of developing countries. This year, sovereign issuers raised €51.2 billion ($56.4 billion). There are seven weeks left before the start of the new year, and this amount has already exceeded the previous record of €39.9 billion collected for 2016. According to economists, this means an increase in the issuance of new bonds by 80% year on year. At the same time, the issue of dollar bonds increased by only 2.7%. Analysts conclude that the euro takes away a significant market share from the greenback.

However, it is not so easy to push the greenback off the podium. The US currency remains a priority among emerging market governments. With regard to securities in euros, they now account for 30% of foreign borrowing. According to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the volume of receipts in debt funds of emerging markets reached $ 36.3 billion. In early autumn, sovereign sales of Eurobonds resumed, the flow of which slightly dried up in July-August 2019. They continue to this day.

Currently, the European currency is under pressure due to weak macroeconomic statistics from Germany. On Tuesday, November 12, the wholesale price index was published, which slipped 0.1% last month. On an annualized basis, this indicator fell by 2.5%, analysts said.

At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair has continued its downward movement in the direction of the horizontal support level at 1.0989. After relatively good performance this morning in the range from 1.1035 to 1.1026, the pair began to sag again. The fall intensified, reaching 1.1021.

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Now the EUR/USD pair runs within the critical limits of 1,1014–1,1015, however, analysts believe that the low has not yet been passed.

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Analysts expect a correction from the EUR/USD pair and a further decline in the euro. However, the single currency seeks to maintain its position and not slide even further.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar flip: is it possible to turn 180 degrees

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The past week, which took place under the sign of strengthening of the US currency, caused concern in the market. The dollar strengthened its position, despite the accompanying circumstances, both positive and not too good. In the current situation, analysts fear a cardinal reversal of the greenback, which may occur in the next couple of days.

Concerns about a potential change in the greenback dynamics are caused by some significant events that are expected this week. Among them are the publication of data on inflation and US retail sales, as well as speeches by US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell. The main focus of the market is focused on the upcoming report by the Fed head to the US Congress, which will focus on monetary policy issues.

According to experts, the events planned for Wednesday and Thursday will cause a flurry of volatility in the market. They recommend waiting for it, and then, depending on the situation, watch how the dollar behaves in the EUR/USD pair. Until tomorrow, analysts advise not to carry out any noticeable manipulations with the EUR/USD pair and the greenback, and then act on the circumstances.

At the beginning of this week and at the end of last year, the US currency was supported by positive market expectations. Many traders and investors are confident that after three consecutive rate cuts, the Fed will take a long pause. Over the past week, the chances of maintaining the current rate to mid-2020 have greatly increased - from the previous 30% to the current 62%. Such a revaluation provoked an explosive increase in the yield of US government bonds, experts emphasize. It also helped the greenback strengthen.

Earlier, the strengthening of the dollar's position was facilitated by good news about a possible trade truce between Washington and Beijing. The market hoped that the upcoming trade deal would spur US economic growth. At the same time, an increase was recorded in world markets.

However, hopes remained in the field of dreams, and their realization moved beyond the horizon. Analysts warn that dollar growth should not always be considered good news. For almost two years, the strengthening of the greenback took place amid fears for the global economy. At the same time, the opposite effect is possible: strengthening the greenback can significantly weaken the growth of the global economy. In this situation, investors shift to US assets, ignoring the rest. This creates an imbalance in the global market, analysts said.

The strengthening of the US dollar and the apparent overheating of the global market raise investors' concerns about the prospects of other currencies. These concerns may increase if the greenback really reverses 180 degrees after the events of the next two days. Such a reversal can not only brings the EUR/USD pair into the zone of a prolonged fall, but also entrain other currencies.

The EUR/USD pair experienced noticeable volatility on Monday, November 11, cruising in a wide range from 1.1022 to 1.1033. According to experts, a critical level for the pair could be a fall below 1.1000, which will open the way to 1.0900.

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The EUR/USD pair started quite upbeat on Tuesday morning, rising to the level of 1.1035. However, the pair could not continue the day on a positive note.

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At a certain point, the EUR/USD pair fell to low levels of 1.1025–1.1026, demonstrating a dangerous tendency to grope for the bottom.

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At the moment, experts consider the resistance level of 1.1050. To this level, the EUR/USD pair should go exactly half way, and now the pair is stuck in low positions 1.1027–1.1028. According to analysts, in the event of a breakthrough of resistance at the level of 1.1045, the EUR/USD pair is able to reach the level of 1.1110.

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At present, three more factors have become an additional "fuel" for the dollar: fairly positive statistical data on the US labor market, the Fed's confidence in the strength of the American economy, and hopes for a breakthrough in US and Chinese trade negotiations. The combination of such incentives tuned the market for possible growth in the coming months. However, a positive attitude at any moment can turn into the opposite side, analysts warn.

A number of experts believe that a fateful reversal of the dollar in the coming days should not be expected, but certain changes in the dynamics of the greenback will appear. Analysts find it difficult to answer whether these changes will be marked with a positive or negative sign, but they will not pass without a trace for the greenback.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading idea for GBP/USD pair

Good evening, dear traders! It is time to think of the British pound. Monday was very bright for the GBP / USD currency pair: a whole batch of strong news made this instrument launch a strong bull rally, which looks quite promising. It is important that the latest data on the pound will be released almost every day this week, which will undoubtedly give good volatility.

Therefore, the recommendation for this instrument is to try to take a buy position, but strictly over the level of 1.2845, since it is now important for the buyer. In addition, consolidating the price above will mean that the buyer has not gone anywhere, and the probability of growth will remain high. The first goal for possible growth is Monday's maximum at the price of 1.2897; the longer-term goal is the level of 1.2975. The losses, in turn, can be limited to a minimum of November 11.

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I wish you success in trading and big profits!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. November 12. Results of the day. The British pound is tired of rumors and unconfirmed information

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 58p - 53p - 84p - 54p - 112p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 72p (average).

The British pound expectedly could not continue the upward movement on Tuesday, November 12, which began yesterday due to information about a certain friendly attitude of the Nigel Faraj party to the Conservatives, in which the Brexit party will not be elected in those areas in which in 2017 Conservatives won. We believe that this information is from the category of that after which the pound rose by 800 points. That is, in fact, meaningless, bordering on the concept of rumors (after all, no one knows whether Faraj will change his mind before the election), however, it provokes the British currency's growth, since there are simply no more reasons for traders to buy the pound. Yesterday, market participants simply ignored the most important macroeconomic statistics from the UK, after which the pound was supposed to tumble. Today, data from Great Britain was no better. The average hourly wage including bonuses increased by 3.6%, without bonuses - also by 3.6%. Forecasts predicted an increase of 3.8% of each indicator. It turns out that both indicators turned out to be worse than expectations of traders. The unemployment rate, which unexpectedly dropped to 3.8%, could lend a helping hand to the British pound, but the number of applications for unemployment benefits amounted to 33 thousand, instead of the projected 21. Thus, in general, the macroeconomic information package can again be called a failure. The pound did not resume falling again. Traders again ignored economic statistics.

In the meantime, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she considers the chances of approval of the deal by the British Parliament as ultimately high. "I believe that this agreement has a high chance of getting approval in the UK. That would be good for us all, "said Merkel. The German Chancellor also said that "a serious threat to the world economy is the trade conflict between the US and China, as well as the British exit from the EU." It is difficult to agree with the first thesis of the German Chancellor, but easily with the second thesis. We consider it very reckless to talk about the chances of Parliament approving the deal on Brexit before the composition of the Parliament is generally assembled. There is exactly a month before the election, no one can predict the results, the agreement of the Brexit and Conservative parties does not mean anything. Thus, Angela Merkel simply makes another statement in order to calm the markets and residents of the European Union. We completely agree with Merkel's second thesis, since the worst time periods for the economies and the European Union, as well as the US fell precisely during the period of the trade war between China and the United States. Well, it doesn't even make sense to talk about Brexit again. The fact that it harms the economies of the EU and the UK as well as the future is already clear.

However, despite the stubborn reluctance of traders to sell the pound, it is not clear what is based on, we still believe that the pound/dollar pair's downward movement will resume. Of course, we without fail recommend that you wait for technical signals and only after that resume trading down, but from a fundamental point of view, factors that can support the British currency are still difficult to trace. We would also like to remind you that each time during the last three years, when the British pound grew on unconfirmed information, there followed an equally strong drop in the British currency. Most likely, this will be the case this time too, it remains only to wait for the moment when the patience of the bulls will burst and they will stop resisting, and the bears will finish "eating twix" and return to the market. From a technical point of view, the pound/dollar pair remains above the critical line, therefore, although the downward trend continues, short positions are not relevant now. At the same time, the Bollinger Bands even turned up, which signals a possible beginning of a flat. Given that the volatility of the pair remains low, then flat is also very likely.

Trading recommendations:

GBP/USD continues a weak upward correction. Thus, it is recommended that traders wait for the correction to complete, the price to return below the Kijun-sen line, after which it will be possible to resume sales of the pair with targets at support levels of 1.2777 and 1.2716. It is recommended to buy the currency pair under current conditions no earlier than when you consolidate above the level of 1.2910, which is obtained based on the average volatility over the past five days.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: the pound is weighing the chances of success for the Tories in the early elections

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Today, the GBP/USD pair fell 0.2% to $1.2833, after rising 0.6% on Monday.

As Brexit party leader Nigel Faraj warned, Conservatives should not count on any additional compromises from his party.

This put pressure on GBP/USD, sending the pair to daily lows around 1.2825.

Recall that yesterday N. Faraj caused the pound to grow, saying that his party would not dispute the 317 seats of Conservatives in Parliament and decided not to nominate its candidates in those districts where the Tories won in the last election.

According to the leader of the Brexit party, such competition will only undermine the position of supporters of the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union and play into the hands of their opponents. In addition, the victory of the Labour Party will increase the likelihood of a second referendum in the country. Accordingly, instead of competing with the Tories, the Brexit party will prefer the struggle for places with other rivals.

This increases the chances of Conservatives to get the majority of seats in the British Parliament and, therefore, to conclude a deal with the EU on the terms that London and Brussels agreed last month.

At the moment, the market is fixated on early December 12 elections in the UK and ignores most of the other events, and the pound's volatility is growing as opinion polls about how the voters vote.

According to recent polls, the Tories are gaining 39% of the vote, and the Labour Party is still 31%.

At the same time, new data reflect the negative impact of Brexit on the economy of the United Kingdom, which almost stepped into a recession.

According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the country's GDP expanded by only 1% in the third quarter compared to the previous year, demonstrating the lowest growth rates since early 2010.

The information released today showed that the British economy lost some jobs in the third quarter, and the number of vacancies was the largest in the year after the global financial crisis.

The upcoming elections in the UK Parliament are the third in four years, and they mean another attempt to break the impasse that the Brexit process has again entered and which has greatly affected business and investment activity in the country.

However, the election result is far from clear, and some economists and analysts fear that voting will only plunge the country's political system into the depths of chaos, while increasing uncertainty about the future development of the British economy and trade.

"Regardless of how the Brexit issue is resolved, the economic and financial power of the United Kingdom is likely to be weakened and more susceptible to economic shocks than previously thought," said Moody's rating agency.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. November 12. Results of the day. The trade war between the US and the EU is postponed

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 76p - 28p - 56p - 38p - 27p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 45p (average).

The second trading day of the new week for the European currency paired with the US dollar again went exactly as the scenario. The upward correction turned out to be very weak and the downward movement resumed, even taking into account the absence of any important macroeconomic statistics for today. It could be said that data from the ZEW Institute pulled down the euro, however, two out of three reports turned out to be higher than the forecast values, and significantly higher. Thus, it would be much more logical to see the further strengthening of the European currency, even if it is weak. Moreover, the correction at the time of publication of reports from the ZEW Institute had already begun, respectively, it was easy to continue with the proper fundamental background. But that did not happen. ZEW reports are frankly secondary, and today more important publications and news from the European Union and the United States have not been received. Thus, traders simply resumed sales of the European currency as part of a downward trend, which we talk about in the last week every day. This trend is justified by the commonplace negative common fundamental background for the euro, as well as technical factors such as a double rebound from the level of 1.1175.

Meanwhile, as currency pair traders suffer from a lack of interesting macroeconomic statistics, US President Donald Trump decided, according to unverified and insider information, to postpone the decision to impose duties on cars from the European Union for six months. Recall that earlier the European Union lost the court to the United States regarding the case of illegal subsidization of Airbus, as a result of which US companies suffered losses, as these companies were in unequal conditions with Airbus and could not compete fully and honestly with the French company. Thus, the United States received official permission to introduce duties for a certain amount of goods from Europe. However, Donald Trump, who, on the one hand, would be happy to impose duties on the European Union and declare a second trade war, understands that in the current conditions this is not beneficial either to America or to himself. The fact is that the trade war with China, despite the assurances of the Chinese and American sides about "progress in the negotiations," is far from over. Now we are only talking about signing the agreement in the first phase. That is, at least, there will be several such phases, and no one knows how long these negotiations will last. For example, it took seven years to conclude a free trade agreement between the EU and Canada. Trump can't wait that long. Presidential elections will be held in a year, in which Trump is going to win. His ratings now, although they remain high, are still declining. According to preliminary information and research, Trump would now lose the election to any of the candidates from the Democratic Party. Not least because the electorate is unhappy with the trade war with China, which has made cheaper Chinese goods in America more expensive. Thus, Trump needs to end the war, and not to the detriment of himself and the United States. China understands why Trump is in a hurry and what he is striving for, as such he now plans to squeeze everything out of this agreement. In such circumstances, to ignite a second trade war (after all, the EU will respond with mirror duties on American imports with a probability of 100%) is simply inexpedient. Donald Trump's chances of winning the election will fall to zero if he manages to fall out with the EU as well.

However, all this remains only the lyrics in the given conditions. That Trump is not going to fuel a new trade conflict is good. Good for the global economy, and for the EU economy, and for the economy of the United States. However, this news is neither news nor an event for the euro/dollar pair. Just the most negative scenario has been postponed for six months. It can be realized in six months, or it can never be realized. The currency pair is still continuing a downward movement, so the US dollar is quietly rising in price without such loud news. Traders continue to support the US currency for reasons that we have repeatedly mentioned and the main one of which is the imbalance between the key rates of the ECB and the Fed that persists in favor of the US economy. Thus, we believe that only around the previous local lows can we expect a reversal of the euro/dollar pair upwards, since there are also few reasons to update these lows now. In the long run, a pair can go into a wide flat.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair completed the correction and resumed the downward trend. Thus, it is now recommended to re-sell the currency pair while aiming for first support level of 1.0966. A new upward turn of the MACD indicator may indicate a new round of correction. It is recommended to return to purchases of the euro currency no earlier than when the bulls break the critical Kijun-sen line, which is not expected in the near future.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan EURUSD 11/12/2019

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There is a shortage of important news in the market.

Last week's strong decline in the euro is running out of steam.

At the same time, the EURUSD rate has not yet reached key lows below 1.0900.

So far, the decline we see is no more than the usual 50% correction to the previous growth of the euro.

What can change the current picture?

The stagnation in the euro may last another month – the fact is that on December 11 and 12 very important meetings of the Fed and the ECB will take place – the strategy of the main central banks will be decided for next year or at least for six months.

Therefore, the EURUSD rate may spend this month in a range followed by a choice of direction.

The pound – probably already decided – it's unlikely that the 800-point upward movement will be further "eaten up" – but here, too, the key date for December 12 is parliamentary elections.

EURUSD: we are still holding sales from 1.1070, stop with a reversal up to 1.1095.

However, purchases from 1.1045 are possible.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for November 12. Instead of falling, the pound increased. Thanks to Nigel Farage.

EUR / USD

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November 11 ended for the pair EUR / USD with an increase of 10 basis points. However, the increase clearly did not have any effect on the current wave marking. Thus, the construction of the proposed wave c can continue with targets located near the levels of 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci. A successful attempt to break through the level of 50.0% will bring the instrument closer to the execution of this working variant.

Fundamental component:

There was no news background for the euro-dollar instrument on Monday. There were also no interesting events in Europe and America, which explains the low market activity. Today, the news background will remain the same, and thus, one should not expect high activity on the currency exchange market today. Such days should simply be waited, since working in the 20 or 30 point range is extremely difficult and inconvenient. Moreover, most of the attention of the currency market is shifted to the pound-dollar pair now, and more specifically to the UK, where there are important economic reports and enough news from the political sphere. Well, the euro-dollar instrument will wait for "its" news, which will also be present this week, but will begin to arrive on the market a little later.

Purchase goals:

1.1175 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.0993 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.0951 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair allegedly completed the construction of the upward trend correction section. Since the attempt to break through the minimum of wave b turned out to be successful. Thus, now, I recommend selling the instrument with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.0993 and 1.0951, which equates to 61.8% and 76.4 Fibonacci. A new successful attempt to break through the level of 50.0% or a MACD signal down will just give the green light for new sales of the instrument.

GBP / USD

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On November 11, the GBP / USD pair gained about 60 basis points, and the current wave pattern is starting to get a little complicated and confused. This is due to the fact that the trend section, after October 21, turns out to be somehow long and drawn out, which does not fit well with the possible option with the complication of the upward trend section and the construction of wave 5 . Most likely, the pair will now begin to build a horizontal five-wave segment of the trend, and we will see waves d and e. If this is true, then now we should expect an increase in the instrument to the area of 127.2% Fibonacci, and then again decline to the level of 100.0% Fibonacci.

Fundamental component:

Yesterday's economic reports from the UK were such that today we would have to see the pound-dollar instrument at about 27 figures or lower. However, instead of selling the pound, the market decided to buy it. Of course, not just like that, but thanks to Nigel Farage, the head of the Brexit party, who made a very resonant statement that his members of the same party would not be elected in those areas in which the conservative deputies won the 2017 election. Thus, the market clearly considered that such a message, which means only a slightly greater chance of winning the conservative elections, is much more important than weak GDP, disastrous industrial production in Great Britain. It is not difficult to guess, both reports turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations. Today, we are waiting for two more reports from the UK, on wages and unemployment. The expectations of the market come down to + 3.8% y / y in terms of wages and taking into account premiums and without taking them into account. Any value below should cause a decline in "Britain". In this case, the market should recall yesterday's reports, which were left ignored. The unemployment rate is expected at around 3.9%.

Sales goals:

1.2667 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2986 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.3202 - 161.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The pound / dollar instrument supposedly completed the construction of an upward trend. Thus, only a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2986 can be regarded as a complication of this area and become the basis for new purchases of the instrument. At the same time, the trend section threatens to go into horizontal form after October 21, so as not to cast doubt on the further lowering of the instrument.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 12. UK election news supports the British pound

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Good data on the economy, which indicated the absence of a recession at the end of this year, as well as the refusal of the leader of Brexit Party, Nigel Faraj to fight for seats in the Conservative Party, led to a sharp increase in the pound. Now the bulls' task is to break the resistance of 1.2874, which will lead to a new wave of GBP/USD growth with updating highs around 1.2910 and 1.2941, where I recommend profit taking. The formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2850 will also be an additional signal to buy the pound. If the pair decreases due to weak data on changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits and unemployment in the UK, you can count on long positions in the support area of 1.2827, as well as buy on the rebound from a low of 1.2799

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Today, sellers will try to keep the pair below the resistance of 1.2874, and the formation of a false breakout there, together with weak data on the UK labor market, will only increase pressure on the pound. However, a more important task for sellers will be to return under the support of 1.2850, which will lead to the sale of GBP/USD to the low of 1.2827 and 1.2799, where I recommend profit taking. In the scenario of the pair's further growth after data and news on elections in the UK, short positions can be opened by a rebound from a high of 1.2910, and from a larger resistance of 1.2941.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible continued growth of the pound.

Bollinger bands

If the pair decreases, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.2840. The pound will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.2880.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 12. ZEW indices will help euro buyers break above 1.1045

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Since yesterday, the technical picture in the EUR/USD pair has not changed. Euro buyers coped with the task and managed to maintain the support of 1.1025, and while trading is above this range, demand for the euro will continue. However, a more important task, in which the ZEW indices for Germany and the eurozone can provide help, will be a break of resistance at 1.1046 in order to reach highs 1.1046 and 1.1065, where I recommend profit taking. The formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.1026, subject to a decrease in the euro there in the morning, will be another signal to open long positions. In the scenario of EUR/USD decline to the level of 1.1026, it is best to count on purchases after updating the lows of 1.0994 and 1.0969.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The main task of sellers in the first half of the day is to return the pair to the support range of 1.1026, which could not be done today at the Asian session. Only this will keep EUR/USD in the bearish channel, which will lead to the updating of the lows 1.0994 and 1.0969, where I recommend profit taking. With continued upward correction and good data on Germany and the eurozone, the first active short positions can be observed in the resistance area of 1.1046, but selling from there is best only after the formation of a false breakout. Bigger sellers will prefer to return to the market only after a test of a high at 1.1065, from where it is possible to open short positions immediately for a rebound.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1042 will strengthen the demand for the euro. A break of the lower boundary in the area of 1.1028 will lead to the formation of new pressure on the pair.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of GBP/USD on November 12th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Boris Johnson may return to the idea

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – upward.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – upward.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 32.5643

The British pound, which yesterday unexpectedly rose by 80 points, just as unexpectedly as 800 a few weeks ago, seems to end its climb. Recall that the information, which this time pushed the pound up, stated that the leader of the Brexit party, Nigel Farage, would not run for election in the constituencies won by the Conservatives in 2017. That is, Farage almost openly declared that he is in the same boat with the conservatives in the upcoming elections, and the goal of his party is to wean as many votes from competitors as possible.

How honest this is with the electorate is the question. That is, it turns out that the British political forces, to achieve their goals, will not be allowed in some districts (and there are only 317 of them) to vote, for example, for Brexit party deputies. Like this? It is clear that Farage and Boris Johnson have decided to join forces to implement Brexit, and for this to happen, a convincing victory is needed in the election, but, from our point of view, this is beyond "fair play". However, for Boris Johnson, such actions are not new. We recall only the topic with the prophecy of the work of Parliament, with which Johnson simply wanted to remove the deputies so that they could not block the "hard" Brexit. Well, somewhere in Washington, US President Donald Trump rejoices, who is sleeping and seeing how Great Britain will leave the EU, preferably without any agreements. Trump's idea worked, the Brexit and Conservative parties joined forces. Now we need to win on December 12. And then – the most interesting. Donald Trump is in favor of a speedy Brexit, but against making any "deals". It is the same option that Nigel Farage holds. But Boris Johnson, who initially had the same rhetoric, has now changed it to "Brexit with a deal," as Parliament refused to approve the option of leaving without an agreement, and Johnson's "move of the horse" with prorogation failed. However, if the conservatives win the election with the necessary advantage, will Boris Johnson return to the idea of implementing a "hard" Brexit? If the votes in parliament are enough to support any Brexit scenario, will the Prime Minister return to the idea of an unordered divorce, given that his name is often associated with the name of Donald Trump, who opposes any agreements with Brussels and promises a "grand" trade deal if there are no agreements with the European Union? We believe that this is a very serious issue, because you can expect anything from Johnson, and the people of the UK need to take the issue of voting very seriously, because without too much pathos we can say that the upcoming elections will indeed be one of the most important in recent decades for the United Kingdom. Of course, Boris Johnson's return to the idea of a "hard" Brexit is just a hypothesis now.

The pound, from our point of view, reacted once again not quite logically. We do not believe that the growing chances of a conservative victory are positive news for the pound. At least as long as the party is led by Boris Johnson, who, if he had his way, would have left the EU long ago, without wasting time negotiating an agreement. Thus, we believe that with the growing chances of the conservatives winning the election, the chances of some sort of "surprise" from Boris Johnson are also growing. And this "surprise" is unlikely to please the British currency. From a technical point of view, the pound/dollar pair is now fixed above the moving average line, so the trend has changed to an upward one. However, we believe that today or tomorrow, the pair will return to the area below the moving average. Today, for example, traders may be disappointed by another package of weak macroeconomic information from the UK.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2848

S2 – 1.2817

S3 – 1.2787

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2878

R2 – 1.2909

R3 – 1.2939

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has consolidated above the moving average, while volatility remains low. Formally, traders can now consider buying the pound with targets of 1.2878, 1.2909, and 1.2939. However, we still recommend trading small volumes. The downward movement of the pair in the coming days remains preferable, however, now the bears need to wait for the pair to re-consolidate below the moving average line.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of EUR/USD on November 12th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". The dollar holds a key advantage in

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -72.9228

The first trading day of the week passed for the EUR/USD pair, as we expected, in a correction movement, weak, which may end today. In general, nothing interesting happened in the European Union and the States on Monday. Nothing interesting that could be reflected in the chart of the euro/dollar currency pair. Thus, the downward trend remains, the lower channel of linear regression turned down, supporting the downward movement in the medium term.

On Tuesday, November 12, market participants will be able to turn their attention only to the data from the ZEW Institute. We are talking about the index of assessment of current economic conditions and the index of sentiment in the business environment of Germany, as well as the index of economic expectations in the European Union. However, firstly, these indices have the status of secondary macroeconomic indicators, and secondly, they have long been in the negative zone, indicating negative investor sentiment and are unlikely to return to the "green" zone today. Thus, traders will only be able to make sure once again that in terms of the business and investment climate in Germany and the European Union, everything remains in place, no more. Well, the European currency may well resume falling today. Not because the above indices will exert pressure, but because, as we have already said, traders have been getting rid of the euro for several days in a row (despite the presence or absence of a fundamental background of intraday). This suggests that the bulls have lost the initiative, respectively, the market is now in the "bearish paws". And the euro will tend to fall to its two-year lows, which are not so far from the current exchange rate of the pair, just 130 points.

However, calm in the market will not last long, as we think. Tomorrow, in Germany, the consumer price index will be released, in the European Union – industrial production, and in the States – inflation and Jerome Powell will speak in Congress. Thus, surges in volatility are possible tomorrow, and until the evening the euro can continue to remain under pressure since few people now believe that industrial production or inflation in Europe can "rise". The head of the Fed will speak first to the Joint Economic Committee, and later to the budget committee of the House of Representatives. In principle, the main questions to the Fed chairman will remain the same. What is the Fed going to do with the rate in the coming months? According to many experts, the Fed will take a pause, and the pause is not short-term, but at least for a year. Donald Trump, of course, will not be delighted with Jerome's decision, however, it certainly makes no sense to lower the rate for the fourth time in a row. Thus, if the euro did not grow much after three easing of the US monetary policy, now that the pause is indeed very likely, the euro has excellent chances to go to conquer new lowlands, since the ECB has not hinted at any pauses in the cycle of changing the key rate. Accordingly, a new easing can be expected in the coming months from the European Central Bank, led by Christine Lagarde. But even if this does not happen, the US monetary policy is still much more "hawkish" than the ECB's policy. Thus, the US currency retains an advantage over the euro.

From a technical point of view, the pair continues to adjust, but one closed blue bar indicates readiness for the resumption of the downward trend. Two bars of blue color is already a signal for new sales. The bulls still have no chance, because the fundamental backdrop today will once again be empty. There are no grounds for a sharp change in sentiment in the forex market today.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.0986

S2 – 1.0925

S3 – 1.0864

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1047

R2 – 1.1108

R3 – 1.1169

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair is still in a weak upward correction. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards will indicate the completion of the correction and in this case, it is recommended to sell the euro again with the target of the Murray level of "4/8" - 1.0986. Purchases of the pair are now impractical since there are no fundamental or technical reasons for this.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com