The market does not believe in the dollar

The European Central Bank, the Donald Trump and the US macroeconomic statistics, the threefold blow to the positions of the "bears" in the EUR / USD, as the result of which is the main currency pair soared to its highest since early January 2015. The ECB its forecast for GDP growth by 2017 to 2.2%, the highest level in 10 years, and modestly lowered by the inflation estimates for the next year, which, under conditions of rapid appreciation of the euro, can be interpreted as a signal about the fundamental validity of the EUR / USD rally.

Mario Draghi tried to put pressure on the single European currency at a press conference following the September meeting of the ECB, but somehow did it in a clumsy manner, which immediately became the reason for a new wave of purchases.

However, 77% of experts in the Wall Street Journal continue to believe in a December move.

Dynamics of financial conditions in the US

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Source: Nordea Markets.

However, the strategy built by the centrist can begin to fail. Hurricane Harvey is able to deduct 0.2 pp from the US GDP by reducing consumer spending and rising unemployment. And the first negative signals were already received: by the end of the week by September 1, the number of applications for unemployment benefits rose sharply and reached a maximum level since the spring of 2015.

Pressure on the rates of the US debt market and the US dollar came from a statement from Donald Trump that North Korea behaves badly and should be punished. At the same time, rumors are circulating in the market that on September 9 Pyongyang can conduct another test of weapons of mass destruction, timed to coincide with one of the local holidays. In such conditions, investors flee into safe haven assets, the yield of US bonds falls, dragging along the dollar.

Technically, for the second time in the last few days, the bulls for EUR/USD managed to reach a target of 161.8% on the AB = CD pattern. The further dynamics of the pair will depend on their ability to gain a foothold above this level. It turns out - the risks of continuing the rally in the direction of 1,2165 and 1,2225 will increase, no- a correction in the direction of 1,198 and 1,1935 is expected.

EUR / USD, daily chart

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USD/JPY analysis for September 08, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 107.40. According to the 30M time frame. I found no demand bars and that sellers are in control. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential downward target. I got Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 106.60. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities with the targets at 106.60 and 106.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: 109.15

R2: 109.80

R3: 110.35

Support levels:

S1: 107.90

S2: 107.40

S3: 106.70

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 8, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested earlier in September.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

The current price levels of 0.7320-0.7350 can be watched for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 8, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, If bearish pullback persists below 1.1800 and 1.1700, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 can be watched for a valid BUY entry

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EUR/USD analysis for September 08, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2092. According to the 30M time frame. I found a successful test of supply in a low volume, which is a sign that selling looks risky and that buyers are in control. I placed Fibonacci expansion from recent swings to find potential uwpard targets. I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1.2100, FE 100% at the price of 1.12140 and FE 161.8% at the price of 1.2200. Watch for potential buying opportunities.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2085

R2: 1.2140

R3: 1.2230

Support levels:

S1: 1.1930

S2: 1.1850

S3: 1.1790

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for September 08, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) is trading sideways at the price of $4.617 driven on the news that several Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges have delisted markets in a bid to comply with China's recent clarifications on the legality of ICOs. Yunbi, Dahonguo, and Yuanbao have issued statements addressing the central bank's new regulations, moving to delist markets that facilitate the trade of tokens issued via initial coin offering. Technical picture is showing that there is weakness in the backround.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found a broken rising wedge in the background, which is a sign of weakness. The price is testing the gap zone from Monday and gap zone acting like resistance at this point.There is also a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscilator. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunties. The downward targets are set at the price of $4.460, $4.351 and $4.000.

Support/Resistance

$4.680 – Gap resistance

$4.920 – Major price action resistance

$4.460 – Intraday support

$4.351 – Intraday support

$4000 – Projected pattern target (support)

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The trading plan of EUR/USD for September 8, 2017

Trade plan 08/09/2017

The general picture: The euro is still growing, but soon the stop.

The main news of the week was the ECB's decision on monetary policy. Contrary to expectations, the head of the ECB, Draghi and his colleagues, not only left the rates unchanged (the base 0% for deposits for banks and all the minus 0.4%) and left unchanged the program for pumping liquidity markets but did not give any information on plans to turn the monetary policy. Draghi, however noted the obvious unwillingness of the euro's growth, saying that the growth of the euro creates hindrances to economic growth and hinders inflation.

It would seem that it's time for the EUR/USD to stop the growth. The Fed is on the path of tightening monetary policy, the ECB persists in easing and there is no reason for continuing growth. Nevertheless, the euro's rate hit a maximum of the current week at 1.1950 and pretty quickly reached the long-term maximum of 1.2065. The breakdown happened already on Friday morning.

So, the plan for EURUSD:

To buy late. The purpose of growth is 1.2180. You can sell from 1.2180 stops not more than 45 pp.

The level for sale on the breakdown is 1.1905 but probably, a new level will be formed to enter the breakdown down, above that.

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BITCOIN Analysis for September 8, 2017

Bitcoin has been quite corrective in nature recently showing steady gains against other conventional financial instruments. The strength of the impulsive bullish pressure has eased in Bitcoin as it reacted for the whole month of August which does signal the uniformity the instrument is getting along the process. Though Bitcoin is a decentralized currency, global economic impacts influence the supply and demand for the Bitcoin. As the weekend is near the corner and there is low volatility in the market till now, the price is expected to have steady growth in the coming week. The price has recently broken above the Kumo Cloud on 4-hourly chart having the dynamic level of 20 EMA and Tenkan Sen as support. As the price remains above the support area of $3,917.20 - $4,386.80, the bullish bias is expected to continue further with a recent target towards $4,500 and later at $5,000. The Bitcoin market has started to get matured now. So the cryptocurrency is expected to follow the market context from now in the mpulsive manner following the Corrective structure and having proper wave retracements along the way.

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Global macro overview for 08/09/2017

Global macro overview for 08/09/2017:

The UK Industrial Production data did not surprise the market participants. On monthly basis, the Industrial Production declined from 0.5% to 0.2%, in line with expectations. On a yearly basis, however, the Industrial Production increased from 0.3% to 0.4%. The Manufacturing Production data were even better, as they number revealed a 0.5% increase in manufacturing output on a monthly basis.

Behind the increase was mainly a sharp increase in car production (13.7%), which was the fastest rise recorded in official data on the car industry since March 2009. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS): "Manufacturing remains relatively subdued since the start of the year, though July showed the first significant monthly growth of 2017, with car production increasing partly thanks to new models rolling off the production lines."The other sectors responsible for the rise was mining and quarrying, while the whole manufacturing sector is benefiting from weaker British Pound rates ( especially exporters). Overall the data provided some kind of relief over the manufacturing and industrial production sectors performance as the official data were recently showing the sector facing another downturn despite the weakened Pound.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to retrace almost 78% of the previous swing down and currently, the price is trading at the level of 1.3162. If this level is clearly violated, then the next technical resistance is at the level of 1.3190 and then only swing high at the level of 1.3267 remains. Please notice the growing bearish divergence between the price and momentum indicator.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/CAD for September 8, 2017

EUR/CAD is currently residing in bearish bias of the market whereas the bears were quite impulsive with the gains after bouncing off the 1.50 resistance area. CAD is currently quite strong in nature in light of the recent rate hike and upbeat economic reports being published. On the other hand, EUR is struggling to make some gains with its mixed economic reports. Today, German Trade Balance report was published with a worse figure at 19.5B from the previous figure of 21.2B which was expected to be at 20.3B, French Government Budget Balance showed a wider deficit at -83.8B from the previous figure of -62.3B, and French Industrial Production report was only published with a better value at 0.5% as expected from the previous value of -1.1%. On the CAD side, today Employment Change report is expected to be published with a better figure at 17.8k from the previous figure of 10.9k and Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 6.3%. Canada's economic reports which are going to be published today are expected to have a high impact in the market creating a good amount of volatility and increase gains on CAD against EUR today. If Canada's reports are published with expected values, then we might see more dominance of CAD against EUR in the future taking the price towards the yearly low of 1.3770 area.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing some bullish move after being impulsively bearish after bouncing off the 1.50 resistance area. Currently the price is expected to show more bearish pressure in the market as the price remains below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and the nearest horizontal resistance of 1.4730 with a target towards the recent support level of 1.4290.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 08, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.9520. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.9520 (this level of 0.9520 coincides with the double top) to the bottom around 0.9422. However, the price rebounded from the price of 0.9422 to set around the spot of 0.9483. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9520 followed by 0.9551, while daily support 1 is found at 0.9453. Also, the level of 0.9483 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the USD/CHF pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.9520 towards the first support level at 0.9453 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.9453, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.9453 to continue towards the next objectives 0.9422 and 0.9384. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.9551, then this scenario may be invalidated.
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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for September 8, 2017

USD/CHF non-volatile bearish trend is still quite intact, so it is expected to push the price much lower in the future. USD has been struggling to gain over CHF since it broke below 1.00 area and still could not manage to strengthen the bulls in this pair. Today, Switzerland's Unemployment Rate report was published with an unchanged value as expected at 3.2% whereas the previous GDP and CPI reports published this week were quite worse in comparison. CHF did lose some grounds against USD recently which was recovered despite the worse than expected Switzerland's economic reports this week. This signals that the market sentiment is on the CHF side without considering any fundamental economic reports. On the other hand, today USD Final Wholesale Inventories report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.4% and FOMC Member Harker is going to speak today as well regarding the nation's key interest and future monetary policies. The US economic events are expected to have a quite minimal impact on the market today which does indicate that further bearish pressure and strengthening of CHF is very much possible in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has currently rejected off the support level of 0.9440 which is expected to show some bullish intervention in this pair on a short-term basis. Currently, the pair is expected to show some bullish move towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA before proceeding further downward with a target towards 0.9050 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.9770 resistance level, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 08, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair bullish trend from the support levels of 0.7231 and 0.7293. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.7293, which coincides with a golden ratio (38.2% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.7293. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.7293. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the price of 0.7293 with the first target at the level of 0.7343. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 0.7343. We should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7393) as next objective. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7231.
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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for September 8, 2017

AUD/JPY is currently quite corrective and volatile in nature which formed a rising wedge on the intraday charts. The mixed economic reports from Japan and Australia made the market sentiment quite confused recently which still exists in the market by now. Today, Japan's Final GDP report was published which showed a decrease to 0.6% from the previous value of 1.0% which was expected to be at 0.7%, Bank Lending also declined to 3.2% which was expected to be unchanged at 3.3%, Current Account report showed positive changes with a rise to 2.03T from the previous figure of 1.52T which was expected to be at 1.65T, Final GDP Price Index was published unchanged as expected at -0.4%, and Economy Watchers Sentiment was also published unchanged at 49.7 which was expected to decrease to 49.5. On the other hand, Australia's Home Loans report showed an increase to 2.9% from the previous value of 1.2% which was expected to decrease to 1.0% and RBA Governor Lowe is currently speaking about short term interest rates and future monetary policies which is expected to be quite neutral in nature. To sum up, Japan's economic reports were mostly very negative in nature which capped the growth of the currency against AUD today. However, AUD could not dominate JPY with its positive economic reports today which does signal that JPY is indeed quite strong than AUD in the market with better sentiment. AUD should come up with positive high impact economic reports in the coming days to dominate the JPY growth.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has been very corrective and volatile in nature recently which formed a rising wedge along the way. The price is currently struggling to break over the horizontal resistance level of 87.50 but in the process, some upward fake moves have been observed as well. Currently we will consider sell positions after the price breaks below 86.10-30 support area with a daily close. As the price remains below 88.00 level, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Bitcoin analysis for 08/09/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 08/09/2017:

Many Bitcoin enthusiasts are trying to anticipate a realistic projection for the Bitcoin price over the next few years. There are some analysis that expect a rational $15,000-$20,000 value to extraordinary projections of $1 mln per Bitcoin. For now, the fact is that after activation of the SegWit protocol which includes the Lightning Network technology, the whole Bitcoin market capitalization is slowly approaching $80 bln, which makes the Bitcoin market alone worth a half of this sum. Moreover, the Bitcoin daily transactions are growing steadily as well (about 400,000 BTC per day according to Coinmarketcap) and 1,728 new Bitcoins are created through mining each day. If by the next halving the number of mined Bitcoins will drop to 864 and then in 2024 to 432, around the year of 2032 99% of all Bitcoins will be mined already. This situation will likely make the investors realize, that they are missing out the opportunity to mine the remaining 1.6% of all available Bitcoins, and then the prices should climb accordingly. With the given pace of rise, the target of $20,000 by 2020 is very likely to be hit.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H1 time frame. The price is currently trading inside of the gray rectangle supply zone, but it was declined from this zone twice already. So, will the third time be lucky? The clear bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator supports the downward view, but any breakout above the level of $4,691 will likely indicate a further move towards the swing high at the level of $4,970. On the other hand, according to the Elliott Wave Principle, the wave (b) correction might get more complex and time-consuming before the wave (c) to the downside unfolds. The bigger time frame trend remains bullish.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 7, 2017

Forex analysis review
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 7, 2017

Global macro overview for 08/09/2017

Global macro overview for 08/09/2017:

The first negative effect of Hurricane Harvey is seen on the US job market. The recent Unemployment Claims data were substantially worse than expected. Market participants anticipated a slight increase in the number of the unemployed people in the US from 236k to 245k, but he number revealed was at the level of 298k. It was the highest reading since April 2015 while it was the largest weekly increase since 2012. The numbers of claims in Texas rose by over 50k on the week to above 63k. Continuing Claims data in the week ending August 26th were released at 1.94mln from 1.95mln and has remained below 2.00mln for over four months.

Before the storm, the Unemployment Claims figures had been consistent with an improving labor market picture, but the Hurricane Harvey will cause swings in broader US economic data. Employment may be depressed initially until rebuilding and recovery efforts in flooded areas around Houston take hold.The biggest impact in job market might be noticed in qualified workers sector as this particular part of US job market had kept the underlying trend in claims applications low. On the bright side, post-Harvey reports on manufacturing and services highlighted a solid demand for labor, which might, in turn, underpin consumer spending (the biggest contributor to the US GDP).

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market has hit the important technical support at the level of 107.53 despite the fact it is trading in oversold conditions. This level might be a key level for the bulls, so it is worth to keep an eye on any impulsive rebound towards the nearest technical resistance at the level of 108.27 and above. No signs of bullish divergence are present yet.

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Technical analysis of USDX for September 8, 2017

The Dollar index as expected is making new lows. Trend remains bearish and after the rejection signals on the daily chart, our plan is getting verified.

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The Dollar index is below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Price is making lower lows and lower highs. Trend is clearly bearish. There are some divergence signs that provide a warning for Dollar bears but there is no sign of a reversal yet. Short-term resistance is at 91.70-91.90.

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Red lines - bearish channel

Purple lines - megaphone pattern

On a weekly basis the index is oversold, inside the bearish channel, below the weekly Kumo and approaching the lower end of the megaphone pattern. The lower trend line of the megaphone pattern is around 90.50 so this could very well be a target to complete the entire downward move from 103.80.

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Trading plan for 08/09/2017

Trading plan for 08/09/2017:

The financial markets remain focused on negative information around the US Dollar - geopolitical, fiscal, dovish signals from the Fed and the hurricane. This is why EUR/USD is trading above 1.2080 and USD/JPYhas broken below 108.00. The Japanese Nikkei is down 0.7%, but Hang Seng is up 0.4%. Gold remains at the elevated levels around $1,357.

On Friday 8th of September, the event calendar is quite busy with important news releases. Switzerland will release Unemployment Rare, Germany will post Trade Balance data and France will present Industrial Production data. Later on, the UK will post Industrial and Manufacturing Production data. During the US session, Canada will present Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data and the US will post Wholesale Inventories data.

EUR/USD analysis for 08/09/2017:

The German Trade Balance data and France Industrial Production data are all scheduled for release during the early hours of the London session, but market participants are still absorbing yesterday's Mario Draghi comments after the interest rate decision. After leaving the interest rates unchanged at the level of 0.0%, the ECB President said during the press conference, that recent Euro's volatility is a source of uncertainty. Moreover, he added, that inflation outlook hasn't broadly changed, underlying inflation pressures remain subdued and very substantial degree of accommodation is needed. At the end, he stated, that the QE programme will be extended as long as necessary as the ECB is reluctant to commit to a QE announcement date.

The ECB staff forecasts were in line with the leaks. The growth forecasts were tweaked slightly higher and inflation a tad lower. Growth this year was revised to 2.2% from 1.9%. The GDP forecast for 2018 and 2019 was left unchanged at 1.6% and 1.7% respectively. The CPI forecasts were revised lower, mostly due to exchange rate appreciation. For this year, headline inflation is expected to be 1.5%, down from 1.6% in June. Next year's forecast was trimmed to 1.2% from 1.3%. Inflation in 2019 is expected to be at 1.5% rather than 1.6%.

In conclusion, it was a very dovish statement from Mario Draghi that surprised market participants as they expected a completely different rhetoric. He reiterated the old statements, that the ECB does not target the currency but that the exchange rate is important for growth and inflation expectations. After the press conference was over, the Euro appreciated across the board.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H1 time frame. After breakout above the level of 1.2000, the price rallied towards the level of 1.2090. Currently, the market conditions are overbought on H4, Daily and Weekly time frames and there are clear and visible divergences between the price and momentum indicators on various time frames. Nevertheless, as long as the technical support at the level of 1.1829 - 1.1847 is not clearly violated, the outlook remains bullish.

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Market Snapshot: US Dollar Index makes another lower low

The price of DXY has made another lower low at the level of 91.02 after the technical support at the level of 91.62 was broken. The market is now trading in extremely oversold conditions and the bullish divergence is visible at the various time frames. Only a sustained break out above the golden trend line would put the bulls in control over this market again.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil rise to 78%Fibo

After the Hurricane Harvey disruptions in oil supply, the price of oil went up towards the recent swing highs but was so far capped at 78%Fibo at the level of $49.38. Themarket conditions loofs overbought, but the momentum is strong, so after a local correction the bulls might still attack the swing high at the levle of $50.40.

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Technical analysis of gold for September 8, 2017

Gold price has reached our second target of $1,350. Price remains in a strong up trend. Next target is at $1,380. Gold longer-term trend is bullish. We can expect a pull back between $1,330-$1,300 before the next big upward move.

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Gold price remains in an up trend as price is holding above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Price is making higher highs and higher lows. Support is at $1,344 and next at $1,330. Resistance is now at $1,374.94 at the July high of 2016.

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Magenta line - resistance

Blue line - support

Gold price has reached our second target at $1,350 where we find the magenta trend line resistance. Price is marginally trading above it. I believe we will eventually break it and move towards our third target of $1,380. Long-term trend is bullish. Pull backs will come and I expect to be a buyer again.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 8, 2017

EUR/USD: The ongoing northwards movement that has been witnessed on this pair has put an end to the short-term neutrality on it. Price has gained about 170 pips and that has resulted in a bullish bias. Further northward movement may bring price towards the resistance lines at 1.2100, 1.2150 and at last, 1.2200.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF has gone further downwards this week, because the EUR/USD has gone upwards. Price has lost about 170 pips, leading to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The bearish movement is expected to continue, as price goes towards the support line at 0.9400, which would be tested today or next week.

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GBP/USD: This currency trading instrument has gained close to 200 pips this week, leading to a strong bullish bias on the market. The next targets for bulls are located at the distribution territories at 1.3150 (which has been previously tested), 1.3200 and 1.3250.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY has dropped by at least, 220 pips this week, leading to a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price is now below the supply level at 108.00, going towards the demand level at 107.50 (which may be breached to the downside soon). The southward movement is made possible by the weakness in USD as well as the stamina in JPY. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50, portending continual selling pressure.

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EUR/JPY: This cross is also is getting neutral and the market is getting choppy. Should the current consolidation continue, it could lead to a neutral bias on the market. On the other hand, a breakout to the upside or to the downside is expected (at least 200 pips to the upside or to the downside), which would bring an end to the current neutrality and lead to a directional movement.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 8, 2017

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Wave summary:

The break above the minor resistance at 1.6616 is a strong indication that red wave iv completed already at 1.6407 and red wave v/ towards 1.6969 now is developing. Short-term, we are looking for minor support at 1.6469 to be able to protect the downside for the next impulsive rally higher to at least 1.6758 and possibly even closer to 1.6969 in red wave v.

Only an unexpected break below 1.6407 will confirm that red wave iv has not completed yet, but the potential downside should be very limited.

R3: 1.6969

R2: 1.6758

R1: 1.6690

Pivot: 1.6600

S1: 1.6500

S2: 1.6469

S3: 1.6407

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6611 with stop placed at 1.6400. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6469 and use the same stop at 1.6400.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 8, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look higher towards the ideal wave (D) target at 137.36 to complete the triple zig-zag correction from 109.48 and set the stage for the final decline within the triangle towards 117.17 as the ideal target for wave (E) and the triangle consolidation in wave [B].

Short-term, we expect the support at 129.35 will be able to protect the downside for the next rally higher towards the 137.36 target.

R3: 131.71

R2: 131.35

R1: 130.72

Pivot: 130.40

S1: 130.13

S2: 129.95

S3: 129.62

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 130.10 with stop placed at 129.25 and take profit is placed at 137.15.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 08, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as French Industrial Production m/m, French Gov Budget Balance, and German Trade Balance. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Consumer Credit m/m and Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2087.

Strong Resistance:1.2080.

Original Resistance: 1.2068.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2056.

Target Inner Area: 1.2028.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2000.

Original Support: 1.1988.

Strong Support: 1.1976.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1969.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sept 08, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Economy Watchers Sentiment, Final GDP Price Index y/y, Current Account, Bank Lending y/y, and Final GDP q/q data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Consumer Credit m/m and Final Wholesale Inventories m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 108.92.

Resistance. 2: 108.71.

Resistance. 1: 108.50.

Support. 1: 108.24.

Support. 2: 108.02.

Support. 3: 107.81.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/JPY reversing nicely, prepare to sell

We remain bearish looking to sell on strength below 130.93 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, Fibonacci extension) for a strong push down to at least 12932 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 92% and we expect a further drop from this level.

Sell below 130.93. Stop loss is at 131.43. Take profit is at 129.32.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD prepare to sell on major resistance

We prepare to sell on major resistance at 0.7295 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, Fibonacci retracement) for a strong push down from that level to at least 0.7203 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing strong resistance at 95% and we expect a reaction from that level to push price down similarly.

Sell below 0.7295. Stop loss is at 0.7340. Take profit is at 0.7203.

analytics59b1f438acd55.png

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AUD/JPY bouncing nicely above support, remain bullish

The price is bouncing nicely above major support at 86.92 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) and we expect a strong bounce above this level to push the price up to at least 87.61 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance, Fibonacci extension).

RSI (34) is seeing strong ascending support holding our bullish momentum.

Buy above 86.92. Stop loss is at 86.52. Take profit is at 87.61.

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USD/JPY bouncing nicely above support, remain bullish for a push up

The price has started to bounce up nicely from our major support level at 108.04 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, channel support). We expect a strong bounce from this level to push the price up to at least 109.38 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing strong support above 3.4% where we expect a corresponding bounce from.

Buy above 108.04. Stop loss is at 107.81. Take profit is at 109.38.

analytics59b1f3d200b8f.png

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USD/CHF key support broken, time to start selling

The price has broken a major support level triggering a bearish drop. We prepare to sell below 0.9535 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down all the way to 0.9431 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

RSI (34) has broken a key support-turned-resistance level at 42% triggering a drop from here.

Sell below 0.9535. Stop loss is at 0.9586. Take profit is at 0.9431.

analytics59b1f393cdc18.png

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AUD/USD sell below major resistance

The price is approaching major resistance at 0.8059 (Multiple Fibonacci extensions, horizontal swing high resistance, Fibonacci retracement) and we expect a major reaction off that level to push price all the way down to 0.7984 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 94% where we expect a strong reaction from.

Sell below 0.8059. Stop loss is at 0.8083. Take profit is at 0.7984.

analytics59b1f30845716.png

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for September 7, 2017

Today has been quite a volatile day for EUR/GBP after having certain retracement recently. EUR has been quite mixed with the economic reports today which somehow did help the currency to gain over recent GBP dominance but still, there are certain cautions to be considered about the upcoming bullish move in this pair. Today EUR Minimum Bid Rate report was published with an unchanged value as expected at 0.00% and following this at the ECB Press Conference Draghi has been quite positive with the Euro growth which has helped the currency to gain more strength over GBP today. Alongside these economic reports, today EUR German Industrial Production report was published with worse than expected value at 0.0% from the previous value of -1.1% which was expected to be at 0.5%, French Trade Balance showed greater deficit at -6.0B from the previous figure of -4.9B which was expected to show less deficit at -4.5B and Revised EUR GDP report was unchanged as expected at 0.6%. Despite such negative reports of EUR alongside the Minimum Bid Rate and ECB Press Conference the currency strength is quite intact and expected to continue dominating GBP further in the coming days. On the other hand, today GBP Halifax HPI report was published with an increase to 1.1% from the previous value of 0.7% which was expected to decrease to 0.2% and having such positive economic report GBP could not stand a positive chance against EUR due to presence of strong EUR sentiment in the market as of recent hawkish ECB statements and economic reports. To sum up, EUR has been better with the high impact economic reports and events over GBP which is expected to continue further taking the price much higher in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has today bounced off the dynamic level of 20 EMA after recent bearish pressure off the resistance level 0.9270. Currently, the price is quite bullish in nature which is expected to push the price much higher towards 0.9270 in the coming days and if the price breaks above the 0.9270 resistance level with a daily close then it is expected that the price will move much higher with a target towards 0.9500 resistance area. As the price remains above the dynamic level of 20 EMA with a daily close the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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BITCOIN Analysis for September 7, 2017

After breaking above the resistance of 4386.80 recently Bitcoin was quite corrective in nature today. There has been an expected pullback today as of the recent Chinese ban on initial coin offerings effect which still seems to be quite intact in nature. Bitcoin popularity in several countries is growing quite impulsively whereas the Blockchain technology is also coming into the limelight. As of the popularity and encouragement of accepting Bitcoin is growing rapidly there is greater chance of impulsive gain on Bitcoin in the coming days. Though Bitcoin is currently quite corrective in nature with the gains due to some economic issues which affected the demand of this Cryptocurrency the effect is expected to be quite minimal in nature. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA in the intraday 4 hourly chart which is currently expected to create more higher highs and higher lows with an expectation to climb much higher towards $4500.00 resistance level and later towards $5000.00 target area. Recently there has been Tenkan and Kijun Cross whereas Tenkan Sen is holding the price well enough to push it much higher and the price is on the way to break the Kumo Cloud to signal much higher moves in the future. As the price remains above the support area of 3917.20 - 4386.80 the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 08, 2017

USDX had another bearish session during Thursdays with the bears taking control of the situation, now with the focus placed towards the 90.30 level. This is a likely scenario given that it's breaking August 29th lows and Bollinger bands are calling for another leg lower. To the upside, if it manages to do a rebound, then we can expect a rally to test the 200 SMA once again at H1 chart.

USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 94.04

H1 chart's support levels: 91.67 / 90.30

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 91.67, take profit is at 90.30 and stop loss is at 93.04.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 08, 2017

GBP/USD continues to ride a bullish sequence above the support level of 1.3073 and looks forward to testing the 1.3147 amid USD weakness across the markets. The 200 SMA is still providing a guide to the bulls and Bollinger bands have been showing an expansion, which should be an indication that a pullback might come soon. MACD indicator still supports the longs in the pair.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3073 / 1.3147

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2976 / 1.2842

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3073, take profit is at 1.3147 and stop loss is at 1.3000.

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