Gold analysis for February 04 , 2016

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,147.20 in a very high volume. An intraday short-term trend is upward. In the daily time frame, I found an upward bar in a very high volume. Demand still presents in the market. So, selling looks risky. The price broke the daily 200 SMA . Also, the pair is trading well above all key MA`s (SMA 50,100,150,200) in the H4 time frame. The first take-profit level is reached at $1,134.00 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%, daily SMA 200). Second short-term takes profit is set at the level of $1,182.00. In the M30 time frame, I found a broken trading range (re-accumulation). Since gold is in the uptrend according to the lower frame, watch for the potential buying opportunities on dips.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,145.80

R2: 1,150.80

R3: 1,158.60

Support levels:

S1: 1,129.80

S2: 1,124.50

S3: 1,116.80

Trading recommendations: Watch for potential breakout of the trading range to confirm further direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/NZD analysis for February 04, 2016

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the price of 1.6660. In the daily time frame, I found a supply bar, but with a weak close price, which is a sign of indecision. In the 4-hour time frame, our strong support level at 1.6515 (swing low, Fibonacci expansion 61.8%) held successfully. If the price breaks the level of 1.6515, we may expect potential testing of 1.6260 (Fibonacci expansion 100%) and 1.5830 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). Intraday resistance level is at the price of 1.6740 (volume balance zone).

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6750

R2: 1.6815

R3: 1.6915

Support levels:

S1: 1.6545

S2: 1.6485

S3: 1.6380

Trading recommendations: Watch for a potential breakout of 1.6515 to confirm further downward continuation.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 04, 2016

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair has faced strong resistances at the levels of 1.0075 because support had become resistance on February 4, 2016. So, the strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 1.0075 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.0075, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 1.0075 (the level of 1.0075 coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.0075 so it will be good to sell at 1.0075 with the first target of 0.9965. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9896. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9896. However, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.0125.
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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 4, 2016

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On December 30, a significant bearish rejection took place around the level of 0.6840 (daily resistance level) similar to what happened previously on October 23.

Moreover, a daily closure below 0.6750 allowed a quick bearish decline to occur initially towards the level of 0.6500, which was broken to the downside as well.

However, the price levels of 0.6400-0.6350 constituted a significant support zone. Hence, a strong bullish rejection was expressed on January 20 (inverted head and shoulders pattern).

Since January 26, bullish persistence above 0.6500 was mandatory to keep pushing the NZD/USD pair towards higher bullish targets. However, the temporary bearish rejection has been expressed around 0.6550 for almost two weeks, which resulted in the depicted consolidation range.

On January 28, the depicted support level of 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. A bullish breakout above 0.6550 has been executed earlier today.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) was needed to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets. The nearest target zone is currently located around 0.6700-0.6750.

Price zone of 0.6700-0.6750 remains a significant resistance zone to be watched for a valid sell entry. Signs of a bearish rejection should be assumed to be a sell signal. S/L should be located above 0.6775.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 04, 2016

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the level of 0.6615 yesterday. The level of 0.6615 coincides with 50% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as major support today. Since the trend is above the 50% Fibonacci level, it means the market is still in an uptrend. From this point, the USD/CHF pair is continuing in a bullish trend from the new support of 0.6615. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the NZD/USD pair to move between 0.6615 and 0.6768. On the H4 chart, resistance is seen at the levels of 0.6768 and 0.6819. Also, it should be noticed that, the level of 0.6678 represents the daily pivot point. Therefore, strong support will be formed at the level of 0.6615 providing a clear signal for buy deals with the targets seen at 0.6768. If the trend breaks the support at 0.6768 (first resistance) the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 0.6819 in order to test the daily resistance 2. However, stop loss is to be placed below the level of 0.6551.
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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 4, 2016

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A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart).

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Hence, another consolidation range was established from 1.3450 down to 1.2800.

On December 7, a bullish breakout above 1.3450 (the upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market. Hence, a bullish visit towards the resistance level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was executed.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where evident bearish rejection was expected (a bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

The level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) remains a significant key level to be watched for price reaction during the current week's consolidations. It offered a valid sell entry on a bullish pullback that took place yesterday.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.3370-1.3400 remains a significant support zone to be watched for valid buy entries if enough bearish momentum is maintained below the mentioned key level (1.4100) and prominent weekly support (1.4000).

Trading recommendations:

As we expected, valid sell entries were suggested around 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) and around 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%).

Both positions are running in profits. Now S/L should be lowered to 1.4050 to secure our profits, while the next T/P levels remain at 1.3650,1.3500, and 1.3420.

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards the zone of 1.3370-1.3400 as a valid buy entry. S/L should be located below 1.3320.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 4, 2016

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Few months ago, the market was pushed above the depicted level of 1.5550 trying to reach the zone of 1.5900 where the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern was formed.

On November 2015, a bearish engulfing weekly candlestick closed below the level of 1.5200 (the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern). This supported the bearish side of the market in the long term.

Extensive bearish pressure has been applied to the demand levels of 1.4620 and 1.4360. Both of them were broken to the downside.

Shortly after the GBP/USD pair moved below 1.4220, evident signs of bullish recovery were expressed around 1.4075. Hence, the previous two weekly candlesticks closed above 1.4220 indicating strong bullish demand.

That is why the zone of 1.4360-1.4220 remains a significant demand zone for the GBP/USD pair. A bullish engulfing weekly candlestick is being expressed as depicted on the chart.

Bullish persistence above 1.4220 and 1.4360 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market. The first bullish target is seen at 1.4615.

Any signs of a bearish rejection around 1.4615 should be taken into consideration as it corresponded to a broken weekly demand level, which now is acting as a supply level.

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During 2015, a significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.5770 and 1.5230 where a bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was formed. Since then, the market has been trending downwards within the depicted bearish channel.

Few weeks ago, the level of 1.4950 was broken to the downside, constituting a significant supply level.

Daily persistence below 1.4800 (the lower limit of the depicted bearish channel) favored a bearish decline towards 1.4680 and 1.4610 where previous prominent bottoms are located on the GBP/USD daily chart.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold as it moved further below the prominent demand levels of 1.4620 and 1.4360.

That is why, the depicted signs of a bullish rejection around the demand level of 1.4220 were considered to be a valid buy signal.

Bullish persistence above 1.4360 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market. The first bullish target at 1.4615 has been already reached.

A daily closure above 1.4620 allows the pair to make a quick bullish movement towards the next resistance level around 1.4800. However, traders should watch for any signs of bearish rejection that occur around 1.4620.

Trading Recommendation:

In our previous articles, traders were advised to take a valid buy entry when GBP/USD bulls managed to achieve a daily closure above the level of 1.4220 and then above 1.4360. S/L should be advanced to 1.4550 to secure our profits.

Conservative traders should wait for clear signs of a bearish rejection around 1.4620 to sell the GBP/USD pair. S/L would be set as a daily candlestick closure above 1.4620.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Febuary 4, 2016

General overview for 04/02/2016:

As anticipated yesterday, the corrective cycle looks completed and an impulsive wave progression to the upside might have started now. There is one more resistance for bulls to overcome, the golden trend-line dynamic resistance around the level of 131.63. If this line is clearly violated, then the next target for bulls will be the recent swing height at the level of 132.32. Please notice that this scenario will be invalidated if the price reverses below the wave 2 lows at the level of 130.00.

Support/Resistance:

133.69 - WR1

132.27 - Local High|Technical Resistance|

131.29 - Intraday Resistance

130.76 - Weekly Pivot

130.22 - Intraday Support

129.18 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

So far, the market confirms our bullish bias and buy orders from yesterday should be kept open. SL should be moved just below the level of 130.00 and TP is still open now. The bullish trend might have just started, so it will be more profitable to keep buy orders open for some longer time.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for Febuary 4, 2016

General overview for 04/02/2016:

An expected wave c to the upside failed to hit the projected target level, and the market is in a retreat now. Currently, the pair is trading below the important resistance at the level of 1.4000 and further downside wave development is expected. Please notice that according to Elliott wave count the market is still in a big corrective cycle of wave 4, which now looks like a zig-zag pattern. When the correction i completed, one more high is expected above the level of 1.4687.

Support/Resistance:

1.4690 - Swing High

1.4553 - WR3

1.4436 - WR2

1.4324 - Technical Resistance

1.4173 - WR1

1.4061 - Weekly Pivot

1.3906 - Intraday Resistance

1.3798 - WS1

1.37.19 - Intraday Support

1.3682 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Buy orders from yesterday should now be closed at the BE level, because the trend has reversed sooner than expected. Currently, the intraday trend is still bearish and only sell orders should be placed. The SL should be placed above the level of 1.3800 and TP should be placed at the level of 1.3682.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 4, 2016

EUR/USD: This pair started moving upwards gradually on Monday, but the upwards movement became really significant on Wednesday leading to a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The price has now moved upwards by over 300 pips and there is more room for additional bullish journey, which is likely to take place irrespective of the pullbacks along the way.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair plunged massively on Wednesday (February 3, 2016), as a result of a perceived weakness in USD. The price dropped by 230 pips this week, ending the recent bullish bias in the market. After the plunge, there is an upward bounce in the context of a downtrend. Further downward movement is thus expected, which might take the price towards the support level of 0.9950.

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GBP/USD: The bullish effort on the cable has really paid off. The price is above the EMA 11, which is, in its turn, above the EMA 56. The RSI period 14 is above the level of 50 meaning that the price is expected to go further northwards. The price has already moved upwards by 500 pips (since the low of Friday, January 29, 2016). There could be some pullbacks along the way, but the bullish journey is expected to continue.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument has plunged by 420 pips this week ending the bullish signal we witnessed last Friday. In fact, the price is now below the EMA 56, as the RSI period 14 is below the level of 50. Since the price has gone below the supply levels of 119.50, 119.00, and 118.50, it is rational to assume that the demand levels of 117.00 and 116.50 would be tested soon.

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EUR/JPY: In spite of the fact that JPY is currently flexing some muscles, this cross has not fallen sharply. One reason behind this is the strength in the euro itself, which might force the cross to go up in case the bullishness holds out. That is one thing that could act as a catalyst for this cross to become bullish, for the uptrend is not completely over in spite of the ongoing threat against it.

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USDX technical analysis for February 4, 2016

The US dollar index collapsed yesterday as it broke below and out of the upward sloping channel. The price was signalling that a bearish reversal was coming as we pointed out the bearish divergence in the stochastic and the RSI a couple days back.

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Red lines - bearish wedge

The US dollar index has broken below the cloud support and the upward sloping wedge. The critical support of 98.40-98.50 was broken and the price fell 1 point down. Today, we see the price bouncing, but I believe the downside move is not over yet.

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In the weekly chart above, we see how the price has broken below the tenkan-sen support (red line indicator) and is now heading towards the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) and the Ichimoku cloud near 96.50. The trend is bearish.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold technical analysis for February 4, 2016

Gold price continued moving towards new highs yesterday remaining inside the bullish channels and without any reversal signal shown yet. However, the price is now testing channel boundaries that are important resistance levels and now we are going to find out if this entire rally from $1,050 is a correction or a new uptrend beginning.

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Blue lines - medium-term bullish channel

Gold price reached the upper channel boundary resistance and broke out above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A trend remains bullish but bulls need to be cautious now and raise their stops because this can be the end of the entire rise from $1,050.

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Gold price is approaching weekly resistance of $1,150 and this can signal the end of a bounce and the downtrend resumption. We must not forget that we are still inside the downward sloping wedge and below the Ichimoku cloud. So, only in case of a break above these two resistance barriers, we can have confirmation of the reversal in the long-term trend. The short-term trend remains bullish with important support at $1,125.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Silver for February 04, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is trading around the level of $14.65 after reaching highs around $14.79 yesterday. The metal is seen to be stalling around the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement of a drop between $16.35 and $13.63. The metal could be preparing for a resumption of its overall downtrend from the current levels. Please note that the trend-line resistance is seen around $15.25. It is recommended to initiate short positions with risk seen at $15.60. Immediate interim resistance is seen at the level of $14.80 while support is seen at $14.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short now with stop at $15.50, a target is open.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Gold for February 04, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Yesterday, gold rallied to measured extensions towards towards the levels of $1,136.00/40.00. The metal hit the level of $1,145.00 before pulling back lower again. Please note that the yellow metal is hitting resistance around Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of a drop between the levels of $1,191.00 and $1,046.00. Also, the trend-line resistance is being tested at the moment around $1,142.00/45.00, and a bearish response is expected. It is now recommended to initiate short positions with risk around $1,148.50. Immediate resistance is seen at $1,145.00 (interim), while support is seen at $1,137.00.

Trading recommendations:

Stay short now with stop at $1,148.50, a target is open.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February, 2016

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Wave summary:

A corrective decline from 1.7271 continues to grind slowly lower and a breakout below support at 1.6564 calls for a corrective move closer to 1.6370 and possibly even slightly lower to 1.6300 before this correction is over and the next impulsive rally takes place.

Only a direct breakout above resistance at 1.6681 will indicate that the correction has already completed and the next impulsive rally higher is developing towards 1.7271 and higher.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop was hit for a loss. We will be looking for a EUR-buying opportunity near 1.6370.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 4, 2016

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Wave summary:

We have evaluated our two possible counts and have decided that this count is the most favorable one. This count shows that wave [C] or [iii] is already developing for a long-term rally above 149.55 closer to 170.00.

However, in the the short term, we are likely to see a correction slightly below the area of 128.60 - 129.30 before the next rally higher. We expect the resistance line from 141.04 to be broken. This will also trigger an inverse S/H/S bottom for an anticipated rally to 138.31.

As this corrective decline is minor wave two, it could be deeper than 128.60.

Trading recommendation:

We will look for a EUR-buying opportunity near 128.60.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 04, 2016

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When the European market opens, some economic news on the French 10-y Bond Auction, Retail PMI, and ECB Economic Bulletin is due to be released. The US will publish economic data on the Natural Gas Storage, Factory Orders m/m, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Prelim Non-Farm Productivity q/q, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1165.

Strong Resistance:1.1159.

Original Resistance: 1.1148.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1137.

Target Inner Area: 1.1111.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1085.

Original Support: 1.1074.

Strong Support: 1.1063.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1057.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 04, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data, but the US will deliver some economic on the Natural Gas Storage, Factory Orders m/m, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Prelim Non-Farm Productivity q/q, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 118.65.

Resistance. 2: 118.42.

Resistance. 1: 118.19.

Support. 1: 117.91.

Support. 2: 117.68.

Support. 3: 117.44.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for February 04, 2016

In H1 chart, USDX saw a huge decline below the 200 SMA and now it's expected to start to form a lower low pattern. However, if the US Index achieves a rebound at current stage, then it can retrace towards the resistance level of 97.42, which was the significant low made during the December 11th session. MACD indicator is at negative territory and supporting the idea.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.21 / 97.42

H1 chart's support levels: 96.94 / 96.65

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 96.94, take profit is at 96.65, and stop loss is at 97.25.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 04, 2016

GBP/USD has been trading in a bullish mode and the Wednesday's session added some strength to the pair. Currently, the Cable is trying to perform a retracement towards the latest support formed around the 1.4535 level, because of the huge bullish momentum that it gained. However, our bullish outlook remains the same, as long as the 200 SMA is pointing to the upside.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4644 / 1.4687

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4588 / 1.4535

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.4644, take profit is at 1.4687, and stop loss is at 1.4597.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 3, 2016

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On December 30, a significant bearish rejection took place around the level of 0.6840 (daily resistance level) similar to what happened previously on October 23.

Moreover, a daily closure below 0.6750 allowed a quick bearish decline to occur initially towards the level of 0.6500, which was broken to the downside as well.

However, the price levels of 0.6400-0.6350 constituted a significant support zone. Hence, a strong bullish rejection was expressed on January 20 (inverted head and shoulders pattern).

Since January 26, bullish persistence above 0.6500 was mandatory to keep pushing the NZD/USD pair towards higher bullish targets. However, temporary bearish rejection has been expressed around 0.6550 for almost two weeks which led to the depicted consolidation range.

On January 28, the depicted support level of 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. A bullish breakout above 0.6550 has been executed earlier today.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) is needed to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets. The nearest bullish target is currently located around 0.6700.

On the other hand, another bearish closure below 0.6550 brings the NZD/USD pair inside the depicted consolidation range again (between 0.6400 and 0.6550).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com