Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 10, 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:

In 2013, the world's first-ever Bitcoin ATM made its debut when Robocoin placed the machine in a coffee shop in Vancouver. A transaction in BTC worth $ 10,000 was made on the device that allows customers to exchange Bitcoins for cash and vice versa on the first day.

Now, one month from the end of 2020, the estimated number of cryptocurrency ATMs worldwide that allow customers to buy and sell Bitcoin and other altcoins for cash is around 11,665.

This reflects the remarkable increase in the number of crypto ATMs compared to last year. The number of bitomats at the end of 2019 was estimated at 6372 machines; now, as we approach farewell to 2020, there has been an increase of almost 80%.

CoinATMRadar also shows that the number of crypto ATMs is increasing by an average of 23 machines per day, or almost one new bitomat per hour.

The United States saw the fastest take-up in the world of crypto ATMs and gained the largest share in its territory. The number of bitomats located in the United States has increased from 4,213 in 2019 to 9,242 in 2020, an increase of over 50%. The United States currently accounts for approximately 79.2% of the total number of crypto ATMs in the world.

There is also a growing diversity in the spread of cryptocurrency ATMs in the United States - located in small stores, malls, transportation hubs, and even at the Tesla Gigafactory.

Canada is second in the top five with 880 bitomats; Great Britain in third place with 268 machines; Hong Kong in fourth place with 62 machines and finally Columbia, which has recently shown a lot of interest in building bitomats, with 59 machines.

The significant increase in the number of cryptocurrency ATMs in 2020 proves the growing interest of both buyers and financial institutions, including the financial giant Paypal.

Technical Market Outlook:

After the BTC/USD pair has bounced quickly back above $15,000 it keeps hovering in a narrow range between the levels of $14,781 - $15,783, consolidating the recent gains in extremely overbought market conditions. There is a potential Bullish Flag price pattern in progress on the H4 time frame chart. The intraday technical support is currently seen at the level of $15,215 and the intraday technical resistance is located at $15,526. The up trend is still being continued, so the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $16,000.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $19,307

WR2 - $17,576

WR1 - $16,627

Weekly Pivot - $14,868

WS1 - $13,889

WS2 - $12,207

WS3 - $11,247

Trading Recommendations:

Bitcoin is trading at the yearly highs and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $16,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $10,000 is broken.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 10, 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:

The creator of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, sent his first ethers to the Ethereum 2.0 smart contract address. Officially, it can be announced that he will take an active part in staking and securing the network of the new version of Ethereum.

Buterin's "VB2" address sent 100 transactions of 32 ethers each, for a total of 3,200 units of cryptocurrency, according to a TrustedNodes report. At the time of the press release, this amount is worth approximately $ 1.4 million. The transactions were sent to the newly launched and escrow Ethereum 2.0 smart contract, which was launched as a tool for network participants to transfer funds from the current proof-of-work blockchain to the soon-to-be-launched proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain. In order to take an active part in securing the new Ethereum network, a minimum of 32 ethers must be deposited.

The smart escrow contract currently holds 44,741 ETH worth approximately $ 20 million. In order for Ethereum 2.0 to officially take off, one of the conditions must be met, which is that 16,384 validators must deposit funds corresponding to 524,288 ETH in the smart contract, which at the time of publication would be worth around $ 230 million.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has been seen hoveing inside of a narrow range and it is possible the market is developing the Bullish Flag pattern. The level of $424.65 will now provide the intraday support and the level of $400 will now act as a key technical support. The next target for bulls is seen at the swing high at $466.36. Only if a daily candle closes below $360 level, then the bears will have full control of the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $594.51

WR2 - $529.18

WR1 - $494.37

Weekly Pivot - $431.37

WS1 - $395.52

WS2 - $336.56

WS3 - $301.67

Trading Recommendations:

The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $309.61 is broken.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 11/10/2020

The situation regarding the presidential elections in the United States remains unchanged. Donald Trump refuses to admit his defeat and intends to seek a recount through various courts. On the other hand, Joseph Biden demands that the transfer of power be initiated immediately. And this despite the fact that these very voices still count. So it's not surprising that the markets are somewhat hesitant. This is clearly seen in the pound's movement, as it stands still.

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Apparently, all this electoral confusion will drag on for a long time, so sooner or later the markets will have to react to other news. We mean macroeconomic statistics. Moreover, the UK will publish its labor market report today. However, if investors are distracted from the scandals associated with the elections, and look at what is happening in the United Kingdom, it may not be good for the pound. If only for the simple reason that the unemployment rate should rise from 4.5% to 4.9%. And such a sharp rise will obviously not please anyone. At the same time, the number of applications for unemployment benefits may increase by another 36,000. So unemployment will continue to grow. The growth rate of average wages may accelerate from 0.8% to 1.4%. Although, given the continuing rise in unemployment, this rather indicates that the least paid workers are losing jobs, for whom the loss of a source of income could be a real disaster. So there is clearly nothing good about it. And in an amicable way, all this should lead to a noticeable weakening of the pound. Unless, of course, investors are distracted for a moment from the endless vote count in the United States.

Unemployment rate (UK):

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The GBPUSD currency pair has been at the peak of the inertial movement for the third consecutive day, where market participants identified the price values of 1.3120/1.3200 as alternative boundaries. In fact, the pound has a kind of accumulative process, which can play into the hands of speculators in the upcoming acceleration in the market.

If we proceed from the quote's current location, then we can see that market participants approached the upper border of the 1.3120/1.3200 range.

With regard to volatility, there has been a slowdown since last Friday, which will end as soon as the three-day range is broken.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, you can see that the current slowdown coincides with the area of the local high on October 21, which ultimately may become a resistance level if the natural basis of the price rebound coincides.

We can assume that the 1.3200 border will put pressure on buyers once again, which will lead to a reverse move towards 1.3120/1.3130. The main volume of short positions will appear on the market when the price settles lower than 1.3100 for a four-hour period.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments indicate a buy signal due to price fluctuations at the peak of the inertial movement.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for November 10, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has tested the key technical resistance located at the level of 1.1908 - 1.1914. The rally was capped at the level of 1.1920 (swing high) and the price reversed after the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at H4 time frame chart. The market is currently trading around the level of 1.1822, but there was a low made at the level of 1.1795 already. The local support for intraday traders is seen at the levels of 1.1789 and 1.1803, but if one of this level is violated, then the road towards the next support located at the level of 1.1695 is open. Please notice the market is coming off the overbought conditions, so the pull-back lower should continue.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2308

WR2 - 1.2092

WR1 - 1.2015

Weekly Pivot - 1.1812

WS1 - 1.1717

WS2 - 1.1522

WS3 - 1.1441

Trading Recommendations:

Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. The recent correction towards the level of 1.1612 seems to be completed and now market is ready for another wave up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for November 10, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been seen rallying towards the level of 1.3182, which is the key technical resistance for the price. Moreover, the level of 1.3196 is the target level for 1:1 Fibonacci projection of the last wave up and the level of 1.3172 is the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down on the daily time frame, so some kind of market reaction is expected here: continuation or reversal. If the up move is being continued, then the next target is seen at the level of 1.3258, if there is a reversal - the key technical support is located at the level of 1.2916.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3631

WR2 - 1.3400

WR1 - 1.3312

Weekly Pivot - 1.3083

WS1 - 1.2991

WS2 - 1.2762

WS3 - 1.2666

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is in the down trend on the monthly time frame, but the recent bounce from the low at 1.1411 made in the middle of March 2020 looks very strong and might be a reversal swing. In order to confirm the trend change, the bulls have to break through the technical resistance seen at the level of 1.3518. All the local corrections should be used to enter a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken.

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Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 11/10/20

The pair was supposed to continue moving up on Monday, but the news that the American pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and the German company BioNTech announced that their COVID-19 vaccine proved 90% effective outplayed the day's work and instead of the daily white candle, they received a side channel. Today, it is possible to go upward according to economic calendar news and it is expected at 7.00 UTC (pound), 12.00 and 15.00 UTC (dollar).

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the market will try to continue moving up from the level of 1.3165 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the goal of 1.3251-the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). If this level is reached, it will continue going up with the target 1.3373 resistance line (black bold line).

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Figure 1 (daily chart).

Complex Analysis:

  • Indicator Analysis - up
  • Fibonacci Levels - up
  • Volumes - up
  • Candle Analysis - up
  • Trend Analysis - up
  • Bollinger Bands - up
  • Weekly Chart - up

General conclusion:

Today, the price from the level of 1.3165 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) will try to continue moving up with the goal of 1.3251 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). If this level is reached, it will continue going up with the target 1.3373 resistance line (black bold line).

Unlikely scenario: downward movement with a target of 1.3206 – upper fractal (candle from 09.11.2020). If this level is reached, it will go down with the goal of 1.3130 – a pullback level of 14.6% (red dotted line).

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Markets are very optimistic, so demand for risk will remain stable. Overview of USD, NZD, AUD

The markets are surprised with the news that Pfizer and BioNTech's experimental COVID-19 vaccine is said to be 90% effective when tested by a large (more than 40,000) test group. This is reflected in a sharp increase in oil prices, stocks and bond yields. According to the expert, the fact that 90% of efficiency is an extraordinary result adds to the positivity, since the efficiency was predicted at the level of 60-70%.

Meanwhile, the US Congressional Budget Committee (CBO) has summarized data for the 2020 fiscal year ended September 30. The federal budget deficit was $ 3.1 trillion, which is more than three times the deficit recorded in fiscal 2019. The 3.1 trillion is 14.9% of the country's GDP, up from 4.6% in 2019 and 3.8% in 2018; in relative terms, this is the highest since 1945. In the post-war years, the United States managed to improve the situation due to the dollar's global status, which was in demand for post-war recovery. However, it is not clear how the newly elected President will solve this problem in the current conditions.

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If the Republicans continue to control the Senate, which requires prerequisites for that, then the threat of tax increases from the new president will sharply decline. In fact, the optimistic reaction of the markets after the announcement of a successful vaccine trial lay on an already prepared ground, as the probability of passing a new law on financial support increased, and the threat of tax increases decreased. Of course, there was a demand for profitable assets, which is a completely natural reaction of the markets.

We expect the demand for risk to continue today after a slight correction. In particular, the growth of oil and commodity currencies, while the yen will remain under pressure.

NZD/USD

Amid growing demand for risk, the New Zealand dollar reached a new 17-month high, moving towards the previously announced target of 0.6930/50. Reflecting the latest data for the pre-election week, the CFTC report showed that the NZD remained in a stable long position at 471 million, contrary to other commodity currencies, which were actively selling. This morning, the target price has reversed upwards, holding above the long-term average, and the chances of an impulse development look significant.

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The RBNZ's monetary policy meeting will take place tomorrow, from which changes are not expected. They also have previously repeatedly confirmed that it intends to cut the rate at its meeting in April 2021. Expanding economic incentives at its meeting in December is also likely, but there are no reasons for urgent measures at the moment. The labor market in Q3 has been steadily recovering, with inflation expectations for Q4 at 1.59%, up from 1.32% in Q3, indicating confidence in consumer demand.

Technically, the NZD/USD pair is likely to make an attempt to rise to 0.6930/60, where a high will be formed, followed by a downward pullback. For the NZD/AUD cross-instrument, the decline to the goal of 1.0550 remains relevant.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar clearly strengthened within the general trend yesterday, but, unlike the NZD, it failed to break through the high of September 1. All accumulated positive futures were lost in the latest CFTC report, the weekly change is -728 million, a short position was formed, and the estimated fair price remained below the long-term average and is directed below.

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The negative effect was received a week earlier, when the RBA cut the rate to 0.1%, and the RBA's head said that there is a risk of expanding incentives in addition to the $ 100 billion package during the end of the meeting.

Following the general market trend in demand for risk, the AUD may continue to rise, but there is still a high possibility of a downturn. The resistance level is at 0.7344, consolidating above almost guarantees an attempt to update the level of 0.7420. However, it is more likely to move to the side range, near the zone of 0.7210/40.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on November 10

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

The US announced that it successfully completed the third test of its coronavirus vaccine, so as a result, demand for the dollar rose rapidly in the market yesterday. To add to that, tensions over the US election were gradually decreasing, thus, demand for the euro amid expectations of Joe Biden's victory had shrunk as well. Short positions arose at the level of 1.1871, which brought the quote towards the target level of 1.1814. The downward movement to about 60 pips.

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Trading recommendations for November 10

Contrary to what was expected, Joe Biden's victory did not result in a huge advantage for the bulls, and this is mainly due to the fact that many traders now see fears not in the political ambitions of Biden and the new stimulus package in the US, but in the problems of recovering the GDP of the eurozone and the services sector.

At the same time, the news that a vaccine for the coronavirus could be available early next summer raised the position of the dollar, thus, accordingly, the euro's position dropped back down in the market.

The upcoming data on Germany's business sentiment (for November) will also be published today, and if it indicates a serious deterioration in the index, it will be another reason for the decline of the European currency against the US dollar.

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  • Open a long position when the euro reaches a quote of 1.1852 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1916. Growth will only occur if data on German business sentiment comes out better than the forecasts.
  • Open a short position when the euro reaches a quote of 1.1816 (red line on the chart, and then take profit around the level of 1.1754. A downward correction is very much expected, after the strong bull market last week.

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

Short positions arose at the level of 1.3166 yesterday. And although the movement down was not that large, the quote almost reached the target level, which is 1.3120.

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Trading recommendations for November 10

Of great importance today is the upcoming data on the UK labor market, to which economists expect a 4.7% rise in unemployment, which will put pressure in the British pound. A weak labor market is harmful to the entire economy, especially in the face of another lockdown amid a second outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.

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  • Open a long position when the quote reaches the level of 1.3200 (green line on the chart), and then take profit around the level of 1.3254 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth would occur if data on the UK labor market comes out better than the forecasts.
  • Open a short position when the quote reaches the level of 1.3166 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at least at the level of 1.3112. Bad news on Brexit, as well as on UK unemployment, will return the downward trend in the GBP/USD pair.
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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on November 10? Plan for opening and closing trades on

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair started a new round of upward correction last night, as we expected. The correction is weak. The MACD indicator started discharging to the zero level and this is the most important thing. We can expect a strong signal to appear in a few hours. Unfortunately, there is still no trendline or trend channel that novice traders could use. Therefore, we conclude that a short-term downward trend is solely based on the price rebound from the 1.1903 level, which did not let the price rise above itself. Based on these considerations, we consider the most probable scenario for the development of events - a further downward movement to the lower border of the 1.1696 horizontal channel. You are advised to return to buy positions in the current conditions after confidently overcoming the 1.1903 level.

The first trading day of the week was quite volatile and interesting. The euro/dollar fell during the US session. We predicted this scenario, as the markets should have started to calm down after the election week in the United States. Consequently, the pressure from the dollar should have subsided. And then there's the news from the United States: American company Pfizer has conducted successful clinical trials on a vaccine against the coronavirus and announced a 90% effectiveness of the drug. This is great news for America and the world. Thus, this could partly be a reason why the dollar strengthened.

There might be even less news today compared to Monday. At least there is nothing interesting in the macroeconomic calendar. Therefore, we advise you to keep track of news concerning the US political sphere throughout the day. Take note that Joe Biden won the presidential elections, and Donald Trump is going to challenge the results in almost all states in which he lost. It is unclear how this story with the court proceedings will end. However, Trump can create a lot of problems for both America and the greenback. Of course, in his understanding, he longs for the good of the United States, but the markets can regard the president's actions in a completely different way. Thus, news that could potentially worsen the political crisis in America could negatively affect the US dollar. In this case, the euro/dollar pair may start to grow again.

Possible scenarios for November 10:

1) Buying the EUR/USD pair ceased to be relevant after the price failed to go beyond the 1.1903 level. Rebounding from this level - and the price fell to 1.1696. Therefore, you can only buy the euro/dollar pair when the downward trend has clearly ended, which is not expected in the near future, or when we overcome the 1.1903 level.

2) Trading for a fall is more relevant at this time, since the price rebounded from 1.1903. So now novice traders are advised to wait until the upward correction has ended and then - a new sell signal from the MACD indicator, which can be rejected with targets at 1.1765 and 1.1717. Unfortunately, there are still no trend lines or channels that support a particular trend at this time.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 10, 2020

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EUR/JPY has finally rallied and broken clearly above resistance at 123.18 confirming that wave 2/ completed the test of 121.59. Wave 3/ now is in motion for a rally above the peak of wave 1/ at 127.02. It may rise higher towards at least 129.38.

Short-term support is now seen at 123.67 and strong support is seen at 123.18, but we doubt that the ongoing minor correction will be able to correct that far.

R3: 125.83

R2: 125.00

R1: 124.31

Pivot: 124.00

S1: 123.67

S2: 123.18

S3: 122.59

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 122.25 and we will move our stop higher to 122.95

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 10, 2020

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GBP/JPY has finally rallied and broken resistance at 137.87 with behavior indicating that red wave iii now is in motion for a rally towards at least 142.72 and likely a lot higher. Short-term support is now seen at 137.87 which ideally will be able to protect the downside for the next push higher to 139.82 on the way higher to 142.72. If support at 137.82 is broken, we could see the ongoing minor correction dip closer to 136.68 before taking off again.

R3: 140.59

R2: 139.82

R1: 138.94

Pivot: 138.38

S1: 137.87

S2: 137.32

S3: 136.68

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 135.45 and we will move our stop higher to 136.00

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Daily Video Analysis: EURUSD (Riding the Bullish Trend!)

Today we take a look at EURUSD. Combining advanced technical analysis methods such as Fibonacci confluence, correlation, market structure, oscillators and demand/supply zones, we identify high probability trading setups.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for the EUR / USD currency pair 10/11/2020

The pair was moving up on the technical analysis on Monday, but news that US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and German company BioNTech announced that their COVID-19 vaccine proved 90% effective dropped the pair down. Today, the price may start moving up. News on the market is expected today at 10:00 UTC (Euro) and 12:00 and 15:00 UTC (Dollar).

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, from the level of 1.1812 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), the market may start moving up with the target of 1.1860 resistance line (white bold line). The price, after testing this line, will continue to work up with the goal of 1.1920 which is the upper fractal (red dotted line).

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Figure 1 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

  • Indicator Analysis – up
  • Fibonacci Levels – up
  • Volumes – up
  • Candle Analysis – up
  • Trend Analysis – up
  • Bollinger Bands – up
  • Weekly Chart – up

General conclusion:

Today, from the level of 1.1812 (closing of yesterday's daily candle, the price can start moving up with the target of 1.1860 resistance line (white bold line). After testing this line, the price will continue to work up with the target of 1.1920 which is the upper fractal (red dotted line).

Unlikely scenario: When working up, after reaching the pullback level of 85.4% which is 1.1842 (blue dotted line), work down with the goal of 1.1798 or the pullback level of 38.2% (red dotted line).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 10. COT reports. Pound buyers set for new highs, await breakout of 1.3205

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The bulls' unsuccessful attempt to stay above support at 1.3154, which was tested at the beginning of the US session, caused the pair to fall below this range. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the breakout and being able to settle below 1.3154, and also testing this level from the bottom up, had produced a signal to open short positions. The movement was around 30 points.

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Take note that the technical picture has practically not changed, except for the appearance of two new resistances. We can count on the pound's succeeding growth in the short term as long as it keeps moving above the 1.3154 level. Testing the 1.3154 area from top to bottom and forming a false breakout on it in the first half of the day will be a signal to open long positions. But this will only happen if we receive a good report on the UK labor market. The rate of unemployment is of particular importance, where growth is expected. In case a false breakout is formed at 1.3154, GBP/USD will aim for a high of 1.3205, being able to settle above will open a direct path to the 1.3261 area, and the next goal will be resistance at 1.3315, which is where I recommend taking profit. However, this scenario will only be realized if we receive good news on Brexit. If the pair returns to the area below 1.3154, similar to yesterday, it is best to postpone long positions until the 1.3094 low has been updated, or buy GBP/USD immediately to rebound from support at 1.3034, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers need to regain the 1.3154 level again, since being able to settle below it will increase the pressure on the pair and could also bring back the bear market. The initial goal is to test the 1.3094 level, which the bears failed to reach yesterday. However, we can only speak of a larger downward trend if we settle below this range, which will create a new signal to sell the pound and lead to updating support at 1.3034. The sellers' main target for the middle of this week will be the 1.2967 area, where I recommend taking profits. An equally important task for the bears is to protect resistance at 1.3205 in the first half of the day. Forming a false breakout there along with weak data on the UK labor market will be a signal to sell the pound. In the absence of activity at this level, it is best to postpone short positions and wait until the 1.3261 high has been tested, where you can sell the pound immediately on a rebound. Also, a rather interesting area for opening short positions is the high of 1.3315, from which we expect a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 3 showed a reduction in long positions and a slight increase in short ones. Long non-commercial positions fell from 31,799 to 27,701. At the same time, short non-profit positions only rose to 38,928, from 38,459. As a result, the negative non-commercial net position was 11,227, against 6,660 a week earlier, which indicates that sellers of the British pound remain in control and have a minimal advantage in the current situation.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the equality of buyers and sellers.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border at 1.3188 will lead to a new wave of growth in the pound. A break of the lower border of the indicator around 1.3130 will increase the pressure by the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 10. COT reports. Euro under pressure as eurozone situations worsens due

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The situation was rather calm yesterday morning, and we did not see any signals to enter the market, but then the situation became completely different in the afternoon. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and break down the trades. An unsuccessful attempt to go beyond 1.1915 with a false breakout there, resulted in the euro being sold. I advised you to sell the euro in this scenario. A short pause at 1.1854 and its breakdown pulled down EUR/USD to a low of 1.1797, from where I recommended opening long positions immediately on a rebound. Unfortunately, we did not wait for an entry point into short positions from 1.185, because after the price went beyond this range, it reversed and this level was not tested.

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Buyers of the euro will also be focused on protecting the 1.1797 support, which was updated in yesterday's US session. It will be quite difficult for the bulls to do this, considering today's fundamental report on the economy of Germany and the eurozone. Therefore, forming a false breakout there will be a signal to open long positions in hopes to bring back the bullish trend that we saw last week. An equally important goal for the bulls is to go beyond and settle above the resistance of 1.1860, this is where the moving averages are, which are already playing on the side of the bears. Being able to settle in this range produces a signal for opening long positions, in hopes to recover to a high of 1.1915 and its update in the 1.1964 area, where I recommend taking profits. It is possible to sustain the downward correction if bulls are not active at the 1.1797 level. Therefore, in this scenario, I recommend opening new long positions, but only after support at 1.1743 has been updated, or for a rebound from the 1.1701 level, counting on a rebound of 15-20 points within the day.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers need to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1860, which will be a signal to open short positions, in hopes to end the bull market and form a downward correction. This can be done if we receive weak data on the index of business activity in the euro area, which will be released in the first half of the day. The first target in such a scenario will be the low of 1.1797, which we failed to break through yesterday. However, you can only sell from this range and test this area from the bottom up. In this case, the price would fall towards 1.1743, and support at 1.1701 will be the next target for the middle of the week, which is where I recommend taking profits. If bears are not active at the resistance area of 1.1860, it is best to refrain from selling until yesterday's high at 1.1915 has been tested, or open short positions immediately on a rebound from the resistance at 1.1964, counting on a correction of 15-20 points within the day.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 3 recorded a reduction in long positions and an increase in short positions. Despite this, buyers of risky assets believe in the continuation of the bull market, although they prefer to proceed with caution. Thus, long non-commercial positions fell from 217,443 to 208,237, while short non-commercial positions rose from 61,888 to 67,888. The total non-commercial net position fell to 140,349, from 155,555 a week earlier. However, the bullish sentiment on the euro remains rather high in the medium term, especially after the victory of Joe Biden, who intends to endow the US economy with the next largest monetary aid package worth more than $2 trillion.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likelihood of further downward correction of the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.1785. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator around 1.1900.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 10, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro did not beat around the bush and decided to strengthen the correction, as it looked into the collapse of gold (-4.51%) and silver (-6.90%)n. The euro has lost 62 points since Friday's close.

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The price touched the upper shadow of the MACD line and decisively reversed from it on the daily chart. Now the price needs to fall below the balance indicator line, since it will be easier for the price to drop in this case. The Marlin oscillator is moving down, but is also staying in the growth trend zone, the market has not cooled down after last week's growth, a second attempt to attack the MACD line in the 1.1915 area and further, towards the price channel line in the 1.1948 area.

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The price has settled below the nearest level of 1.1830 on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator is attacking the border of the bears' territory. Falling below yesterday's low may extend the movement to the MACD line towards the target level of 1.1750. And being able to settle below it will become a sign of the price's intention to go down further, where the first target will be the level of 1.1620. The likelihood of rising and falling further at the moment is roughly 55% versus 45%. We are waiting for the situation to unfold.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on November 10, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar was actively growing under the general weakening of the US dollar on Monday morning. After testing the upper border of the price channel of the higher timeframe, the price fell under the general attack of the US dollar on rival currencies.

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Now the price lies on the MACD line on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator is in no hurry to move in any direction. The situation is neutral, however, it has an upside potential (0.7332).

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The expected divergence has formed on the four-hour chart, but due to the rapid price growth, it was not pronounced, instead it was rather weak for an optimistic reversal. Now, to confirm this signal, you need to wait for the price to settle below the nearest level of 0.7222. Then the Marlin line will also establish itself in the declining territory.

So, the aussie's growth potential is not that great at the moment, and it is also too early to include a reversal in a trading strategy. We are waiting for the situation to unfold.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 10, 2020

USD/JPY

The 200-point increase in the dollar-yen pair yesterday was as unexpected as it was not sustainable in the future. It was driven by the growth of stock markets due to news about the effectiveness of the American vaccine companies Pfizer and BioNTech against COVID-19 at the level of 90%. The Dow Jones stock index rose by 2.95%, the S&P 500 added 1.17%, but the growth was due to the gap from the opening of the market, the indices declined, but the gap was not closed, while the Nasdaq index closed the day with a fall of -1.53%. That is, the quality of growth in stock indexes was low, and a significant share of optimism about vaccines has long been embedded in quotes.

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On the daily chart, the price overcame the resistance of the MACD line yesterday. The Marlin oscillator shot up, but this morning, the situation with the price and indicators is making an attempt to return to a downward trend. The price just needs to do a little bit to gain a foothold under the trend line below 104.78. This will be the initial condition for a reversal, and the target for further decline will be 104.05. Then 103.18, and the target 102.35 may open again. The reverse exit of the price above today's opening will open the prospect of further growth to the embedded line of the price channel at 106.06.

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Meanwhile, the situation is completely upward on the four-hour chart. The price is above both indicator lines, and Marlin is in the zone of a growing trend.

Thus, the first condition for restoring the downward local trend of the pair will be the fixing of the price at 104.78. The confirming factor will be a decline at 105.04, which will coincide with overcoming the MACD line on the four-hour scale.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on November 10. COT report. Analysis of Monday deals. Recommendations for Tuesday

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair also reached the important resistance area of 1.3160 -1.3184 on Monday, November 9 and, just like the euro, it also failed to go beyond this area during the day. Therefore, the pound could also fall. Although, unlike the euro/dollar, the pound has an ascending trend line, which supports those who are trading on the rise, and the sterling did not sharply fall as well. Oddly enough, the fundamental background is more inclined to the pound's decline. Nevertheless, buyers remain in the game and they need to go beyond the 1.3160 -1.3184. The only way they could move up is if they do so. Sellers had the opportunity to open short positions yesterday, but this did not bring them a big profit, since the price could not move far down. However, we recommended trading in small lots, as the price continues to be above the trend line, as well as above the important Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines. This means that the trend remains upward.

GBP/USD 15M

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The linear regression channels are directed sideways and to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, which indicates that there are no signs of starting a downward movement. You can even say that most of the previous day's trading took place in a horizontal channel. Therefore, the lower timeframe does not provide any reason to conclude that the upward trend is over.

COT report

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The GBP/USD pair only lost 100 points during the last reporting week (October 27-November 2). The pound began to rise after November 2. And it wasn't so much of a rise, but more like the dollar's fall. However, let's go back to the reporting period. Non-commercial traders closed 3,281 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 1,146 Sell-contracts (shorts). Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" group of traders decreased by 4,500. This is much more clearly visible on the chart of the first indicator. The green and red lines, which represent the net positions of the two most important groups of traders, began to diverge in different directions. Therefore, the mood of professional traders is becoming more bearish again. However, this change did not result in the pound's decline. Because elections were already held in the United States on November 3 and the dollar was only getting cheaper then. Therefore, the new Commitment of Traders (COT) report may show that the bearish mood is weakening among professional traders. However, in any case, we believe that the markets need to calm down and only after that will it be possible to look at all the information in a new way. It is now clear that market participants are in a very agitated state due to the political chaos that is now present in the United States. Therefore, the mood of large traders can change quickly and dramatically.

Fundamental background was practically absent for the pound/dollar on Monday. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and the representative for monetary policy of the Bank of England Andy Haldane were scheduled to speak, but they did not mention anything interesting. In principle, they could not disclose anything important, since a BoE meeting also took place last week, during which important decisions were made, as well as worsened forecasts for the recovery of the British economy. Traders expect further easing of monetary policy and a transition to negative interest rates. Therefore, the market did not expect anything hawkish from Bailey.

Several important reports from the UK are scheduled for Tuesday. Firstly, this is the unemployment rate for September, which, according to experts, will grow from 4.5% to 4.8%. Secondly, applications for unemployment benefits, the number of which may reach 36,000. Thirdly, the average salary, including bonuses and without them, which can grow by 1.1%-1.5%. However, the market is currently paying more attention to political news from America than to economic news, wherever it comes from. And so, traders can ignore all of these reports from the UK. No scheduled macroeconomic reports from America. We advise you to monitor news related to the topic of the US presidential election. They will form the fundamental background for the pair in the coming days and weeks.

We have two trading ideas for November 10:

1) Buyers for the pound/dollar pair cannot overcome the 1.3160 -1.3184 area, which prevents them from continuing their upward movement. However, at the same time, they do not stray far from this area and will continue to test it for strength. Thus, we recommend buying the pair only if bulls manage to overcome the indicated area, while aiming for the resistance level of 1.3266. Take Profit in this case will be up to 60 points.

2) Sellers do not currently own the initiative in the market. However, in case the price rebounds from the 1.3160 -1.3184 area, you can try to sell the pound/dollar pair while aiming for the Kijun-sen line (1.3032) in small lots, since we currently have an upward trend. Take Profit in this case can be up to 100 points. You can confidently open sell positions after breaking the trend line and Senkou Span B line (1.2995) with the targets at the support level 1.2943 and the 1.2856-1.2874 area.

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on November 10. COT report. Analysis of Monday deals. Recommendations for Tuesday

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair traded near the resistance area of 1.1886-1.1912 for quite some time on the hourly timeframe on Monday, November 9, and it finally rebounded off it and fell during the US session. Therefore, yesterday's forecasts that predicted a rebound from this area were correct. And since the pair did not settle above this area, traders could open short positions during the day. The nearest target is the Kijun-sen line. In general, the upward trend is still maintained for the EUR/USD pair. Precisely because the quotes remain above the critical line. And as long as the price is above this line, the outlook for the bulls remains quite good. However, we have already repeatedly drawn attention to the fact that it will be extremely difficult to overcome the 1.1900 level. And from a fundamental point of view, there is no reason for it to rise above the 1.1900 level. Thus, we are more inclined towards the option of the euro's fall. However, sellers need to overcome the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines in order for a full downward trend to form.

EUR/USD 15M

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The lower linear regression channel has already turned to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe, and the higher one can do so in the near future. A closer look at the technical picture shows an even more eloquent rebound from the 1.1886-1.1912 area, as well as the fact that buyers failed to overcome it within 28 hours. Sellers' further prospects lie below the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B.

COT report

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The EUR/USD pair lost 170 points during the last reporting week (October 27-November 2).

A strong upward movement began after this time range. Therefore, the fact that the pair gained 220 points simply does not fall within the timeframe of the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report. According to it, professional traders closed 9,200 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 7,800 Sell-contracts (shorts). Thus, the net position for non-commercial traders decreased by 17,000 at once. And any decrease in the net position indicates a strengthening of the bearish mood. Consequently, professional traders continue to look towards selling the euro. Therefore, even despite the subsequent growth, we still believe that the high near the 1.2000 level will still be the peak of the entire upward trend. At least the COT data continues to signal just that. The technical analysis may contradict the COT report, as the latter comes out with a three-day delay. We cannot now know how the big players behaved in the period from November 3 to 6, which is when the dollar was significantly falling due to the elections. Indicators are also signaling good prospects for a new downward trend, as the green and red lines continue to narrow (the first indicator). And they, we recall, reflect the net positions of non-commercial traders and commercial ones.

No macroeconomic releases for America and the European Union on Monday. Therefore, traders had nothing to react to during the day. However, as we mentioned earlier, the tension in the market should have started to subside, and at the same time the US dollar should have started to rise. Last week, the dollar was under pressure solely due to political factors. However, over the weekend it became reliably known that the election was won by Joe Biden, therefore, the dollar should have received a respite at least for a while. At least for a correction after a 280-point rally. Technical factors also predicted a fall in the pair (and a rise in the dollar).

No important reports or scheduled speeches for both America and the EU on Tuesday. Therefore, the fundamental and macroeconomic background will be rather scarce. The ZEW Institute Business Sentiment Index and the ZEW Institute's Current Economic Conditions Index will be released in Germany. However, this is not the kind of news that can provoke a reaction from traders. Better to continue focusing on political news from the United States. Something tells us that it won't be without surprises in the near future. Take note that Donald Trump refused to admit his defeat in the elections and is going to sue Joe Biden's team and seek a revision of the voting results. These are additional risks and a factor of additional uncertainty for the US dollar.

We have two trading ideas for November 10:

1) Buyers need to wait until we have gone beyond the 1.1886-1.1912 area in order to open new buy positions on the pair with the nearest target at the resistance level of 1.1976. Or wait for the price to rebound from the Kijun-sen line (1.1759) and trade upward while aiming for the resistance area of 1.1886-1.1912. Take Profit in the first case will be up to 50 points, and up to 100 points in the second.

2) Bears kept the pair below the 1.1886-1.1912 area and began to open short positions while aiming for the Kijun-sen line (1.1759). You are advised to hold short deals for this purpose. It is recommended to open new sell orders if the pair overcomes the Senkou Span B line (1.1733), with targets in the 1.1692-1.1699 area and the 1.1612-1.1624 area. Take Profit in this case can range from 20 to 90 points.

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY. Pfizer's pharmacology brought down the yen

The Japanese currency is actively getting cheaper throughout the market. In a pair with the dollar, the yen weakened by almost 250 points in just a few hours. Similar dynamics can be seen in the main cross-pairs. For example, in a pair with the European currency, the Japanese fell by almost 300 points and in a pair with the Australian dollar it is more than 200 points. In fairness, it should be noted that other defensive instruments, in particular, gold and the franc, were actively losing their positions. But the yen showed the strongest volatility reacting to news from the "coronavirus front". The USD/JPY pair in the first half of today updated the 8-month price lo, falling to 103.20 and in the second half of the day – updated the almost three-week high jumping to the middle of the 105th figure. And judging by the mood of investors, buyers of USD/JPY will soon head to the area of the 106th price level, opening up new horizons for themselves.

The fact is that Pfizer pharmacologists have taken a serious step in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic. Pharmacology news today overshadowed the us election which set the tone for trading over the past week.

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So, the pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and BioNTech, which are working together to develop a vaccine against coronavirus reported the success of the third phase of clinical trials of the drug today: studies have shown 90 percent effectiveness. Almost 44 thousand people in six countries of the world took part in the tests. In subjects who received the drug, COVID-19 occurred 90% less often than in those who were given a placebo. Registration of the vaccine is expected in November, while the company is now collecting additional data on its safety. The performance data itself has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal but only in the form of a press release. Nevertheless, the news literally "blew up" the markets. It is known that Pfizer and BioNTech have signed a deal with the United States to supply at least 100 million doses of the vaccine in the amount of 1 billion 950 million dollars. At the same time, representatives of these companies have previously stated that hypothetically they will be able to produce an additional 50 million doses and this is only within the current year. And by the end of 2021, Pfizer intends to produce more than 1.5 billion doses of the drug.

Why did this news cause such a stir in the markets? First, creating and distributing a vaccine is seen as the best and most reliable way to get rid of quarantine restrictions. Second, Pfizer pharmacologists were the first to "show off" such impressive results at the last stage of testing (although about a dozen vaccines are currently in the so-called "third phase"). Third, Pfizer used a completely experimental approach that involves injecting part of the virus's genetic code to "train" the immune system. And fourthly, traders finally saw a hope against the background of a record increase in the incidence of diseases not only in Europe, but also around the world (including in the United States). Representatives of Pfizer and BioNTech called their breakthrough in the development of the vaccine "a turning point in the fight against Covid-19".

A major victory in the fight against the virus has revived hopes for a rapid recovery in the global economy. The market's focus has rapidly shifted from the US election to the vaccine. Against this background, such protective instruments as gold and the franc collapsed throughout the market.

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It is quite difficult to talk about the medium – term prospects of the dollar in a pair with the Euro or the pound - EUR/USD and GBP/USD bears showed a rather restrained reaction today. But the USD/JPY pair is likely to continue its upward trend. However, after such impulsive movements, as a rule, there is a corrective pullback, so at the moment you should not rush to buy. But in the medium term, the pair will still test the main resistance level of 106.00 (this is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). Therefore, a corrective decline in the price which is likely to follow during the Asian session on Tuesday can be considered as a reason to open long positions to the above target.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. November 10. Donald Trump leaves, Boris Johnson continues to hope for a trade agreement.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 64.0073

The British pound sterling paired with the US dollar on Monday reached the Murray level of "8/8"-1.3184. During the day, there was a timid attempt to start a round of corrective movement to the moving average line, however, it ended unsuccessfully. Thus, the pound/dollar pair continues to trade in a similar way to the euro/dollar pair. Thus, we make an almost unambiguous conclusion: the mood of market participants now depends on the fundamental background in America. However, we made similar conclusions last week, when traders cheerfully ignored the Bank of England meeting and its "dovish" results, as well as the failure of the next round of negotiations between the groups of Michel Barnier and David Frost. Only these two events could cause the pound to fall by 100-200 points. And if you add in the macroeconomic statistics from overseas on Friday, the pound could lose even more. However, the political issue continues to be in the first place for market participants, so the US dollar remains under pressure.

If the results of the US election are not reviewed, then Donald Trump will leave the office. And along with Trump, Boris Johnson's hopes of concluding a trade agreement with the United States may also collapse. Recall that Trump and Johnson have repeatedly called themselves friends and Washington has repeatedly influenced London's international politics. For example, in the case of 5G networks in Britain, which was supposed to be developed by the Chinese company Huawei, but Boris Johnson at the last moment refused to cooperate with it, as many believe due to the patronage of Trump, who conflicts with both Beijing and Huawei separately. However, during the first year and a half of Boris Johnson's Premiership, negotiations with Washington did not even begin. There were only preliminary discussions about the future agreement, nothing more. But now that Joe Biden is likely to come to power, things are getting much more interesting and fun for Britain. Recall that Biden has Irish roots and is very interested in everything that happens in his homeland. Thus, he highly honors the Belfast Agreement of 1998, which ended 30 years of bloody confrontation on the island. Even before the election, Biden said that he also highly honors any agreement with the European Union, as it applies to Ireland, too. When Boris Johnson drafted his bill "on the internal market of Great Britain", Biden was one of the first to condemn London's actions, saying that any violation of international law would greatly complicate further negotiations between London and Washington. Biden also said that any violations of the Brexit agreement and the Protocol on the Northern Ireland border will not add to the understanding between the White House and 10 Downing Street. Now Johnson finds himself in a very bad situation. The agreement with the European Union still "does not smell". The back-up agreement with America has not even begun to be discussed yet. If there is no agreement with the EU, the UK Parliament will approve the "Johnson bill", which violates previously reached agreements with the EU. The EU initiates legal proceedings, and the States can refuse to discuss any trade deal with London. Or offer much less attractive terms to Johnson. So, for some reason, the British outlook is looking worse and worse day by day. "I think there are good chances to agree. I never believed that this would be a failure, no matter what the US administration was," the British Prime Minister said. Johnson also said that he can't wait to work with Joe Biden in various areas, such as the fight against climate change, trade, and international security. But Joe Biden has repeatedly criticized Johnson, called him a "clone of Trump", and also criticized the UK's exit from the EU. Building a relationship with Biden will be much more difficult for Johnson.

Meanwhile, Michel Barnier and David Frost are making a new go at the trade deal. Negotiations on a trade agreement are resuming in London. "Happy to be back in London today and renew our efforts to reach an agreement on future EU-UK cooperation," Barnier wrote on Twitter. The EU chief negotiator also said that to reach an agreement, reliable guarantees of free and fair trade, as well as mutual access to markets and fishing are needed. The most interesting thing is that none of the participants in the negotiation process, as well as the top officials of the UK and the European Union, are now talking about the deadline that Johnson set earlier. Recall that the last deadline expired on October 15, but to try to reach an agreement, Johnson allowed the negotiations to be extended for one month. This month is coming to an end. The new round of negotiations should last at least a week. Thus, it seems that Boris will again postpone his deadline, and the negotiations will continue for as long as necessary, and not as long as the British Prime Minister considers necessary. Johnson cannot fail to understand that without a deal with the EU, the British economy will be very hard in 2021. And now there is a change of power in the US, which reduces the chances of a trade agreement with Washington. In general, wherever you throw it, there is a wedge everywhere. Perhaps because of this, Johnson becomes more malleable and no longer makes unsubstantiated statements, does not try to blackmail and exert political pressure on Brussels.

However, for the pound, all this does not matter yet. Because negotiations are not a deal. The very fact of negotiations will not make the British economy any better. Therefore, the British currency will have a good chance of growth when there is good news from the UK. In recent months, the pound has risen in price, solely due to the failed fundamental background from overseas. But any fairy tale comes to an end. We have repeatedly said that the pound had no reason to grow. Moreover, the UK's GDP may also shrink at the end of 2020 due to the "lockdown", and the Bank of England has already expanded its quantitative easing program, and it may introduce negative rates in early 2021.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 155 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Tuesday, November 10, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2973 and 1.3283. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a round of downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3123

S2 – 1.3062

S3 – 1.3000

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3184

R2 – 1.3245

R3 – 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is still in an upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe, however, it signals a desire to start correcting. Thus, today it is recommended to keep open long positions with targets of 1.3245 and 1.3283 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to trade the pair down with targets of 1.3000 and 1.2973 if the price is fixed below the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. November 10. Donald Trump is the eleventh President in the history of the United States who

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 33.6636

Trading on the first day of the week was again quite calm. However, instead of a brewing downward correction, we again saw an upward movement. Quotes only once again worked out the Murray level of "3/8"-1.1902. Recall that the 1.1900 level is the upper line of the $1.17-$1.19 side channel, where the price has been for most of the last three months. Well, then followed the long-awaited rebound from this level and a fairly strong drop in the euro quotes. The fundamental background that pushed the pair up all last week should have weakened slightly at the beginning of the new week and should have helped the bears. However, if the level of 1.1902 is confidently overcome, we can still expect a new round of upward movement to the maximum of September 1 - 1.2011.

Over the past week, traders have been getting rid of the US currency for one simple reason. We've been talking about it for the last two or three months. Any election is a potential change of power. The US election is a potential change of power in the country with the largest economy in the world, which in one way or another affects the economies of all other countries. Thus, a lot depends on who will be in power in this country all over the world. A striking example is the trade war with China. It would seem that Donald Trump wants to conflict with the Middle Kingdom. This trade war has "harmed" many other countries to one degree or another, and also caused damage to global GDP. Thus, it is not for nothing that we said that the US dollar is unlikely to become more expensive until the elections are in the past. That's what happened. The maximum level of 2020 is still 1.2011, and the minimum level that bears have been able to reach over the past 3 months is 1.1620. Thus, after an increase of almost 1,300 points this year, the pair managed to correct in half by 400 points, which is less than 30%. Well, traders, even when the name of the new US President became known (at least, I want to believe it), continue to get rid of the US currency. Perhaps this is a residual effect of the previous week's trading. We continue to believe that the European currency has already grown quite strongly throughout 2020. All the advantages of the European economy over the American one (in particular, a smaller drop in GDP in the second quarter) have already been worked out. Thus, for the euro currency to continue to grow in the long term, new good reasons are needed. And they, from our point of view, are not present now. In Europe, the economy contracted less in the second quarter and recovered almost all of its losses in the third. However, with the arrival of autumn, the second "wave" of the "coronavirus" began, so many European countries introduced repeated "lockdowns". And repeated "lockdowns" are new cuts in the economy. Accordingly, at the end of the year, European GDP may again sink. In contrast to the US, since no one has re-quarantined in the States, even though America remains in first place in the world in terms of the number of cases of COVID-2019 and the number of deaths from this virus. So, the American economy will continue to recover, but the European economy will not. And this factor is already playing in favor of the US dollar. Therefore, if the United States does not start a civil war named after Donald Trump or something similar in the near future, then we consider a drop in the euro/dollar pair quotes in the coming months extremely likely.

However, Donald Trump is unlikely to just give up. He lost the election and this is clear to everyone. Over the past three months, all the ratings and opinion polls have said only one thing – Joe Biden will win the election. At the same time, we can not even say that it was the figure of Joe Biden who became the key. We've already said that this was more of a "Trump or not-Trump" election than a "Trump-Biden" one. Indirectly, this assumption is confirmed by the record turnout of Americans in the elections. A total of 160 million ballots have already been counted. This is an absolute record. Americans, in the face of a severe pandemic, were not afraid to go to the polls and vote. Yes, many people voted by mail, but not all 160 million of them. Because the vast majority of Americans understood that this is almost the key election in the history of the United States. And given the fact who won them, it becomes clear what most Americans feared - Trump's re-election to a second term. Thus, Donald Trump will be only the eleventh President in the history of the United States, who failed to be re-elected. The last was George W. Bush in 1992. By and large, such statistics show the results of Trump's activities as President of the United States and how satisfied American citizens are with this activity. Joe Biden has already won a record number of votes that no President has ever won in the entire history of the country – more than 70 million. When all the votes are counted, he may even score 82 million, which is almost 7 million more than Donald Trump will score.

The US dollar, in such circumstances, can now only fear one thing – Trump's further actions. The current President is a very odious and ambitious person. Even before the election, most experts were confident that there would be no peaceful transfer of power in the event of an election defeat. On the contrary, many believe that Trump will try to make the work of his successor as difficult as possible by destroying many important papers and documents or simply taking them with him from the White House. Given the words of Trump that he is ready to stay in the White House for a third and fourth term, we can assume that he expected to be re-elected. Now, like a wounded lion, he can start tearing and throwing. He has nothing to lose. Power is everything to him. Money is everything to him. He will not lose money, but he can lose power. Thus, there is no doubt that lengthy legal proceedings will now begin, although most experts believe that Trump's defeat in the election is quite convincing and even the US Supreme Court, where six of the nine judges are Republicans, will not help the President. However, this does not mean that Trump will not do anything and this is what traders and investors are afraid of. Or they may be afraid of it in the near future.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of November 10 is 130 points and is characterized as "high". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1681 and 1.1941. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back to the top may signal the resumption of the upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1780

S2 – 1.1719

S3 – 1.1658

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1841

R2 – 1.1902

R3 – 1.1963

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair started to adjust. Thus, today it is recommended to open new buy orders with targets of 1.1841 and 1.1902 if the price bounces off the moving average or the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair is fixed below the moving average with the first target of 1.1719.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com