USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 5, 2015

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Overview:

When bulls pushed the price further above 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in a formation of successive lower highs (within the depicted consolidation zone) enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened a way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend).

Bullish support was found around these levels. Successive higher lows were established. Bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels of 1.2450 and 1.2500 (previous tops).

On the other hand, the previous weekly candlestick came frank bullish. That is why, an extensive bullish movement is seen on the chart.

A bullish breakout above the price zone of 1.2770-1.2800 has been executed.

Earlier, signs of lacking bullish momentum were manifested on the chart. A bearish corrective movement was initiated towards the levels of 1.2900-1.2850.

However, a new bullish swing is taking place today, especially after Friday's bullish engulfing candlestick.

The long-term bullish projection target would be located at the level of 1.3270 if enough bullish support is maintained.

Trading recommendations:

Traders can wait for a bearish pullback towards the recent breakout zone (1.2800-1.2750) for a valid buy entry as the Breakout level constitutes the recent support.

Stop Loss should be located below the level of 1.2700.

T/P levels should be located at 1.2850 and 1.2900.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 5, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously hit back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997). Bullish recovery was expressed shortly after.

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May, June, and July) reflect recent bearish rejection being expressed around 1.1450.

In the long term, a projection target is still located at 0.9450 if a bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 occurs soon.

A bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 will be possible only if May's monthly high of 1.1465 gets breached (a low probability).

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After such a long bearish rally, which started around the levels of 1.1300, bullish rejection took place at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0470, 1.0550, and 1.0850. These levels corresponded to the daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Further bullish pressure was observed until bearish rejection was applied around 1.1400 (long-term double-top reversal pattern).

A daily closure below the level of 1.1150 brought EUR/USD to the mark of 1.1000 again.

A bearish daily closure below 1.0950 enabled a quick bearish decline towards 1.0850 and 1.0750.

Evident bullish recovery was expressed last week after hitting the level of 1.0800. Bulls have been trying to bring a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1000 and 1.1100.

Previously, the level of 1.1100 where the backside of the broken uptrend was located, had been visited few timesб including last Friday. However, significant bearish rejection was expressed both times.

As long as the market keeps trading below their recent supply levels around 1.1000, the depicted Double-Top pattern remains valid. Projection target extends down to 1.0600.

Trading recommendations:

Conservative traders could have waited for a bullish pullback towards the recently established supply zone of 1.1100-1.1150 for a valid sell entry. S/L should be lowered to 1.1170.

Another SELL entry with a higher risk would be offered at retesting of the newly-established SUPPLY level at 1.1000 if bullish pullback occurs soon.

T/P levels should be located at 1.0990, 1.0850, and 1.0700.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for August 5, 2015

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Two months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900, which provided evident supply for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, a bearish pullback was executed towards the level of 1.5550. A bearish breakout below 1.5500 took place two weeks ago.

Last week, strong bearish pressure was applied to the level of 1.5550 again. It was breached temporarily until this week's bullish recovery emerged.

Contradictory signals are coming from consecutive weekly candlesticks. This indicates lack of bearish momentum below 1.5500.

The previous weekly candlestick closure above 1.5500 hindered the further bearish decline and enhanced the bullish side of the market pushing the price initially towards 1.5770 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

On the other hand, the nearest demand level around 1.5200 will become exposed if GBP/USD bears manage to bring trading again below the level of 1.5500 (low probability).

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Previously, the price zone of 1.5800-1.5880 acted as significant supply. It offered a valid sell entry few weeks ago. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On the other hand, the level of 1.5550, which corresponds to 50% Fibonacci level and a previous prominent top, was temporarily broken allowing further bearish decline towards 1.5350 where an ascending bottom was recently established.

Last week, strong bullish price actions were expressed. A bullish pullback towards 1.5600 took place. The level of 1.5550 was breached during last week's consolidations.

However, Thursday's candlestick came as a bearish engulfing one, which enhanced the bearish side of the market.

That is why, the level of 1.5550 constitutes a significant key level to be watched for a price action.

A quick bearish decline towards 1.5470 and 1.5370 should be expected only if the level of 1.5550 gets broken to the downside again (low probability).

On the other hand, the level of 1.5770 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is the next supply level to be watched if bullish fixation above the key level of 1.5550 persists on the daily chart.

If so, a counter-trend intraday sell entry can be offered at retesting of the level of 1.5770.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 05, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. Currently trading at 98.189, the US dollar index stays firm on the upside after getting a boost from comments made by Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart, who confirmed his support for an interest rate hike in September. US 10-year Treasury yield hit 2.22% then, and is now at 2.23%. USD/JPY maintains its strong upward momentum climbing with the support of 20-period intraday moving average. The intraday RSI is well directed within the buying area between 50 and 70. The first upside target at 124.60 (around the high of July 30) is in sight. The second upside target is set at 124.80.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is still negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124.60 and the second target at 124.80. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 123.70. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 123.50. The pivot point is at 123.95.

Resistance levels: 124.60 124.80 125.15

Support levels: 123.70 123.50 123.30

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 05, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in higher range . The pair broke above its key resistance at 0.9715 yesterday, which opened the path towards 0.9845. Technically, the key moving averages are turning up, and the intraday RSI is positive above the neutrality level at 50. Besides, the pair is more likely to be forming a "flag" bullish continuation pattern. In these perspectives, as long as 0.9745 is support, expect a continuation of the rebound towards 0.9845 after a pause.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is still negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the latter one is at oversold levels. Five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9810 and the second target at 0.9845. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9710. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9665. The pivot point is at 0.9745.

Resistance levels: 0.9810 0.9845 0.9875

Support levels: 0.9715 0.9665 0.9615

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 05, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. The pair is capped by a declining trendline (established since July 28) and is trading below the 20- and 50-period MAs. The intraday RSI is below the neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. As long as the key resistance at 0.6580 is not broken, look for further downside to 0.6500 and 0.6470 in extension. Only a break above 0.6575 would make the intraday outlook bullish with the first alternative upside target at 0.6615.

Technical comment: The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is neutral.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6620 and the second target at 0.6660. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.65. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6455. The pivot point is at 0.6550.

Resistance levels: 0.6620 0.6660 0.6695

Support levels: 0.65 0.6455 0.64

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 05, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. The pair has broken its previous high, and is expected to look for a higher up in the forthcoming sessions. Both descending 20-period and 50-period intraday MAs are playing resistance roles now. The intraday RSI is badly directed and has broken down its 30 level. The first target to the upside is set at the horizontal resistance and overlap at 194.60. A break above this level would open the way to further strength towards 195.20.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is positive-biased as bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Monday. Stochastic is bullish, the MACD histogram bars are turning positive, and 5-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and is advancing.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 194.60 and the second target at 195.20. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 193. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 192.45. The pivot point is at 193.60.

Resistance levels: 194.60 195.20 196

Support levels: 193 192.45 191.90

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Gold analysis for August 05 , 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of $1,087.00. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a weak small real body. I found a strong trading range between the price of $1,077.00 (support) and $1,108.00. Selling gold around our support looks very risky and my advice is to watch for potential breakout of trading range to confirm further direction. According to the M15, we can observe selling climax (hidden buying) and successful test bar, which is a sign that buyers are in control. The trend is neutral.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,093.85

R2: 1,097.21

R3: 1,102.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,083.50

S2: 1,079.30

S3: 1,074.00

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold at this stage since the price is near our strong support. Watch for breakout of our trading range to confirm further direction. Buyers are in control today.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 5, 2015

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Overview:

  • The USD/CAD pair is going to call for an uptrend market today. The price will probably move between the levels of 1.3071 and 1.3225 in order to form a range of 154 pips in the coming days. The support is at the level of 1.3071, which represents a weekly pivot point. Therefore, the bulls are going to buy above 1.3071 with the first target of 1.3225. In case the trend can break the resistance at 1.3225, it might resume to 1.3266. A new double top is going to be at the price of 1.3266. On the other hand, the resistance is set at the spot of 1.3225 - 1.3266. So, the trend will call for a bearish market in this area because there is a minor bearish channel.

Observations:

  • However, risk to reward ratios are important and should always be calculated. So, a risk (77 pips) reward ratio of 1:1.5 is recommended. It should make a profit of 154 pips.
  • The stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Hence, set your stop loss above 1.3052.
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Daily analysis of SILVER for August 05, 2015

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The H4 chart demonstrates that, Silver price fluctuates within a tight range, settled below 14.70.Therefore, we keep on preferring the bearish trend in upcoming sessions. It needs to break the level of 14.40 to head towards the next target at 12.80. The EMA50 and stochastic continue to provide negative signals, which support the downside track expectations.

Silver price settles below the bearish channel's resistance level that appears in the chart, which meets the EMA50 to strengthen it, while stochastic provides negative overlapping signal in the four-hour time frame, therefore. These factors encourage us to keep on preferring the bearish trend in the upcoming period, To open the way towards 12.80, the level of 14.40 needs to be broken.

You should be aware that breaching 14.70 will stop the current decline and pushes the price to test the level of 16.05 before detecting the next trend.

  • Resistance levels : R1(15) R2(14.88) R3(14.74)
  • Support levels: S1(15) S2(14.88) S3(14.74)
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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for August 5, 2015

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Overview:

  • The resistance of AUD/USD is set at the price of 0.7449; and the support, at the 0.7343 price. So, according to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is going to move between the resistance and support. As a rule, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Therefore, we expect a range about 106 pips on August 5, 2015. Accordingly, if the trend fails to close below the level of 0.7343, it will be a good opportunity to buy above 0.7343 with the first target at 0.7402, then it will continue straight towards 0.7424/0.7449. Nevertheless, the stop loss should always be taken into account because it should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Consequently, the best location to set your stop loss should be placed below the level of 0.7320.

Notes:

  • The risk of 35 pips must make a profit of 106 pips.
  • The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is 0.7342, which represents the strong support this week.
  • The support will be at the level of 0.7342. The double bottom will be at the price of 0.7304.
  • The double top will be at the point of 0.7449 on the H1 chart.
  • The resistances will be at the levels of 0.7424 and 0.7449.
  • The volatility: 182.49. As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the previous day has a huge volatility.
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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for August 05, 2015

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The attached H4 chart demonstrates the price's actions from 195.86 as a sideway consolidation pattern. Thus, while another rise cannot be ruled out, strong resistance should be seen around 195.86 to limit upside and result inreversal. Below, the support at 190.99 will turn bias back to the downside for 184.95 and possibly further to 61.8% retracement of 174.86 to 195.86 at 182.88.

The up trend from 116.83 is still in progress and would target 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is closer to the psychological level of 200. Medium-term momentum is not too convincing with bearish divergence condition on the weekly MACD. We would be cautious on medium-term topping around 200 and bring a deep correction. Meanwhile, a break of 174.86 will suggest earlier-than-expected reversal of the trend.

  • Support: 193.21, 192.37, 191.00
  • Resistance: 193.53, 194.58, 195.82
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EUR/NZD : analysis for August 05, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the level of 1.6620. Low volatility is bserved on the market. In the daily time frame, we can observe a weak supply bar in a volume just below the average. The price rejected from our major resistance level (1.6805). According to the M15 time frame, we can observe few selling climax actions (potential intraday buyers.) The short-term trend has changed from bullish to neutral. Be careful when selling EUR/NZD at this stage. I found a strong trading range between the levels of 1.6590 and 1.6590.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6695

R2: 1.6730

R3: 1.6770

Support levels:

S1: 1.6605

S2: 1.6575

S3: 1.6530

Trading recommendations: Sideywas market. Wait for a breakout of the trading range to confirm the further direction.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for August 05, 2015

The British pound fell sharply after the dismissed housing activity. USD is supported by a series of positive economic data.

IMPACT ON GBP: Construction output growth slowed down moving away from June's four-month high. Residential building expands at the weakest rates since mid-2013. The headline seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index eased slightly from June's four-month high of 58.1.

Upcoming events: Ahead of the US jobs data, traders focused on the US dollar. Today, they eye the ADP no-farm employment change, trade balance, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Traders do expect wild moves during a day.

Technical overview:

Outlook-Earlier, the cable made a strong ceiling at 1.5700. The cable broke the 3-month ascending trendline, as of now still trading below that level. In the four-hour chart, the cable fell below the bearish h&s pattern.

Bullish developments-The cable has been reaching higher lows in the weekly pattern support at 1.5450. The weekly trading pattern is framed between 1.5450 and 1.5700. The cable finally closed above 50Wsma at 1.5535.

Moving averages- The 20& 50Dsma is found at 1.5550, 100Dema is found at 1.5470, 200Dsma is found at 1.5400, 20Wsma is found at 1.5380 and 100Dsma is found at 1.5320.

Intraday - Intraday resistance is seen at 1.5600, 1.5620, and 1.5650. Support is found at 1.5545, 1.5530, and 1.5500.

Selling is available below 1.5540 with an initial target at 1.5520 and at 1.5490 and 1.5470 later. The selling accelerates only below 1.5520 and a trend is likely to change below 1.5440.

Whenever the cable touches the levels of 1.5675 and 1.5700, it will hit lower low. Initial low was 1.5530 and 1.5467 later. This time we can expect 1.5450 or 1.5410. A daily close above 1.5700 will enable bulls to aim for 1.5780 in a day or two.

Trade: Safe selling below 1.5520, buying is above 1.5600 with targets at 1.5630 and 1.5650.

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Technical analysis of AUD/CAD for August 05, 2015

The fall in the commodity prices hits the Australian economy very badly in the recent years. The Australian economy used to be called as luck country, there are many natural resources such as coal, iron ore, and gold. After the commodities super cycle the iron ore and coal prices have been falling sharply. Recently, gold prices added some more pressure to the AUD.

Goldman Sachs expects that iron ore prices will continue falling until the second quarter of 2016.

The pressure from the nuclear deal makes the oil prices move lower. The lower oil prices directly effect the Canadian economy.

Upcoming events: Traders keep an eye on the data on unemployment rate and employment change in Australia. Besides, Canada's trade balance is due to be released today.

Technical view:

Overview: The cross has been trading on a bearish texture. The cross retested 0.9400 thrice in 15 months, but successfully managed to close above that. The 20- and 50Dsma are found at 0.9515, and 20Wsma seems to be at 0.9550.

After the RBA kept the rates unchanged the AUD spiked 1.50% closing at the highest point of the day.

On the daily chart, the cross managed to close above all the moving averages. The cross made a higher low and higher high on the daily chart.

On the weekly chart, the cross managed to close above 20- and 50Wsma.

At yesterday's session, the cross faced resistance at 0.9745 and parallel resistance at 0.9744. The nearest resistance seems to be at 0.9790 100Wema, 0.9810 100Wsma, and 0.9840.

Today the cross is trading at 0.9715 compared to the Tuesday close at 0.9731. The cross has some more room towards the 0.9800 and 0.9820 levels.

Intraday: Support is at 0.9700, 0.9650, and 0.9630. Resistance is at 0.9775, 0.9800, and 0.9820.

Trade: We recommend fresh buying above 0.9750 aiming at 0.9775 and 0.9800, and in the extreme case, at 0.9820 or even further to 0.9840.

Trend: The trend favours buying on the dip at 0.9650 and 0.9630. SL is at 0.9600. For positional basis, buy with SL 0.9530.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 05, 2015

The cross pair lost all the moving averages on the daily chart except for 100Dsma that is at 134.25. The 20Wsma is found at 134.50. The cross has been making head and shoulder formation, neck line is at 133.09. The trend changes, level is at 133.00 - stop loss might be placed there.

Intraday support is found at 135.00 and 134.80. Today, at the Asian session, the cross made low at the 135.02 levels. Resistance seems to be at 135.55, 135.80, and 136.15.

On the H1 chart, the cross pair fell below the base triangle aiming at 134.80, 134.50 and 134.35 initially. The selling is likely to accelerate below 134.80.

Intraday key support level is at 134.80

Weekly key support level is at 134.50

The hourly momentum oscillators indicates oversold condition, it might bounce from the support levels.

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Technical analysis of EUR/CAD for August 05, 2015

Lower oil prices put pressure on the CAD pushing it to much lower levels, and finally towards 1.3213 at the today Asian session.

IMPACT ON USD:

Ahead of the key events in the US such as data release on ADP non-farm employment change, trade balance, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI as well as Canada's trade balance report that is due to be published today, the pair is trading at higher levels with highly overbought indicators. Before further upward movevemnt, we expect the price to correct a bit.

Technical view: Monthly resistance seems to be at 1.3380. In all time frames, oscillators seem overbought. The pair has been moving higher for five straight sessions. It means the pair has been moving higher for six weeks in a row.

Intraday resistance seems to be at 1.3250, 1.3285, and 1.3300. Support is at 1.3175, 1.3160, and 1.3150. Intraday selling available below 1.3150 aims at 1.3110. The market waiting for the NFP data that can define the trend.

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USDX technical analysis for August 5, 2015

The US Dollar index gave a short-term bullish signal yesterday breaking above the short-term trend-line resistance. The US Dollar Index moved towards short-term higher highs in the important resistance area of 98.-98.20.

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Green lines - triangle pattern

The index remains above the Ichimoku cloud implying that the short-term trend is bullish. Yesterday, we got another bullish signal after a breake above the downward sloping trendline as shown in the 4-hour chart above. We are at important resistance levels now. Critical short-term support is at 97.30.

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Red line - resistance

Green line - support

The weekly chart above shows the important resistance level we are currently at. A rejection in this area will probably push the US Dollar Index towards the Green trendline support. Important weekly support is seen at 96.70. Bulls do not want a break below that area.

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Global macro overview for 05/08/2015

Global macro overview for 05/08/2015:

The next portion of economic data from the UK is about to be released today. Among all PMI releases from EU countries, the UK services sector PMI will be released at 08:30 GMT. The market expects a slight decrease to the level of 58.1 in July from 58.5 in the prior month. Similar situation can be spotted on Core Services where the market expects a decrease to 56.9 from 57.4 a month ago.

Amid the situation, any surprise in data ( numbers better than expected) might help GBP/USD to breakout above the demand breakthrough zone and head towards the level of 1.5790.

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Gold technical analysis for August 5, 2015

Gold price continues to trade inside the short-term triangle pattern. The price is kept inside a trading range between $1,105 and $1,077. Currently, a break above resistance and a push towards $1,130 are likely to be the most probable outcome. My longer-term view remains bearish.

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Blue line - long-term trend line resistance

Green lines - triangle pattern

Gold price remains below the blue trendline resistance and below the Ichimoku cloud. Medium- and long-term trends remain bearish. The short-term trend is neutral as the price moves sideways. Traders are waiting for a breakout above or below the triangle. Targets are $1,130 if we break upwards and $1,040 if we break downwards.

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Blue line -long-term trend line support broken

The weekly chart remains bearish. A steep decline has stopped. It is time for an upward bounce towards the tenkan-sen (red indicator). My longer-term view remains bearish as long as the price is below the Ichimoku cloud.

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Global macro overview for 05/08/2015

Global macro overview for 05/08/2015:

Yesterday evening, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the Fed was ready for the first in nine years short-term interest rate hike as the economy is on its way to recovery. He added that only serious deterioration in the US economic conditions ( unemployment incensing, wages decreasing, inflation decreasing, manufacturing decreasing) could bar the Fed from raise the interest rate. Nevertheless, the Fed's inflation target level for the first rate hike is 2%. This is why September's rate hike might be postponed December 2015.

After the hawkish Lockhart comments the EUR/USD pair broke below the golden trendline and it is currently trading at the level of 1.0864. The important support at the level of 1.0808 is the next in view.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 5, 2015

General overview for 05/08/2015 08:50 CET

As anticipated yesterday, the market has completed the wave c purple to the downside and the temporary local bottom had been established at the level of 135.01. Nevertheless, there is still a possibility of further downside developments if the intraday resistance at the level of 135.53 is not violated. If this happens, the market will continue to develop Z brown wave to the downside, targeting the support at the level of 134.42. Please notice that the current wave progression in wave (b) blue might not be completed and might evolve into a triangle pattern ( wave abc green are the first three triangle sub-waves, then we need wave d green and e green to complete it).

Support/Resistance:

136.24 - Weekly Pivot

135.53 - Intraday Resistance

135.15 - WS1

135.01 - Intraday Support

134.42 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening sell orders from the level of 135.53 with tight SL (20-30 pips) and set the TP at the level of 135.01 with a possible extension downwards to the level of 134.42.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 5, 2015

General overview for 05/08/2015 08:30 CET

As anticipated yesterday, the level of 1.3204 was hit and the whole impulsive structure looks completed. There is, however, a possibility of minor internal progression to the upside to complete the sub-wave v blue, but both counts are pointing out that the mid-term top might be in place. To confirm this scenario, the market need to breakout below the intraday support at the level of 1.3110 in impulsive way and head towards the weekly pivot point at 1.3031.

Support/Resistance:

1.3267 - WR2

1.3213 - Intraday Resistance

1.3205 - WR1

1.3174 - Intraday Support (weak)

1.3110 - Intraday Support ( strong)

1.3031 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

Swingtraders should consider closing all mid-term and long-term buy orders as the upward cycle might be topping soon. Please wait for another buy opportunity to come when the downward corrective cycle is completed.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 5, 2015

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Technical summary:

There is no change in view. We are still looking for a breakout above 1.6826 for a continuation higher to 1.7277 as the next major upside target. Ideally, support at 1.6540 will continue to protect the downside for the breakout above 1.6826, but a break below 1.6540 is likely to delay the expected upside pressure closer to 1.6325 before renewed upside pressure can be expected.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6603 and will move our stop higher to 1.6550. If you are not long you should only buy upon a breakout above 1.6718.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 05, 2015

The pair extended ist fall during yesterday's session after the US factory orders supported USD.

IMPACT ON EURO:

The number of unemployed registered at the offices of the Public Employment Services contracted to 74,028 in July, which is the biggest drop since 1998 and more than double that recorded in July 2014 (29,841 unemployed).

IMF official: the IMF and Greece has not reached an agreement on a new debt plan yet. Greece and Europe are ready to make the relevant decisions. The IMF officials can only support a comprehensive rescue package for Greece.

Upcoming events: Ahead of the US jobs data, traders focused on the US dollar. Today, they eye the ADP no-farm employment change, trade balance, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Traders do expect wild moves during a day.

Technical view:

The pair has been closing below 20Wsma at 1.1050 for three consecutive weeks. In the four-hour chart, the pair is trading in an ascending bearish channel, rejected at the upper end of the trendline willing to go further down. In case of a daily close above 1.1130, fresh longs will be added to the system.

Until the pair trades below 1.1000, sell on rises. The supply zone remains at higher levels between 1.1085 and 1.1100 50Dsma. Until the price closes below 1.1000, sell on rises. We have been recommending the same strategy for a while, Friday's session proved that the strategy remains valid in the near term. Monthly support is found at 1.0730.

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0900, 1.0940, and 1.0990. Support is found at 1.0870 and 1.0850. In case the pair loses 1.0850 again, selling will accelerate.

Review: At yesterday's session, we forecasted that intraday selling would be available below 1.0930 with targets at 1.0900, 1.0870, and 1.0850. The pair hit a low at 1.0879.

Trade: Intraday selling is advised below 1.0850 with a target at 1.0810, the second round of panic is likely to be triggered below 1.0790.

Intraday buying is available above 1.0900 with a target at 1.0930.

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Technical analysis of Gold for August 05, 2015

The metal managed to hold the given support zone, but on the back of strengthening USD, gold has lost momentum.

Ahead of the US jobs data, traders focused on the US dollar. Today, they eye the ADP no-farm employment change, trade balance, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Traders do expect wild moves during a day.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the FOMC was nearly ready to raise the key interest rates.

The metal has been moving sideways for 12 consequent sessions. However, it might change this Friday after the form of non-farm employment data.

We do not expect wild moves until Friday, as market is awaiting the NFP data which can influence the trend.

Technical view:

The yellow metal was trading at $1,086.50 during today's Asian session, opened higher on a bearish note. In the weekly chart, the metal managed to hold the channel support trend line at $1,085.00 on a closing basis. The metal has been reaching lower highs and lower lows breaking below the large bearish head & shoulder pattern.

The weekly support is found at $1,085.00, $1,077.00, and $1,073.00. A weekly close below $1,085.00 opens gates to $1,068.00 initially and $1,045.00 and $1,005.00 later. In the monthly chart, strong support zone is seen between $1,045.00 and $1,032.00. The metal fell below the 14-year ascending trendline in the monthly chart. It managed to close above $1,085.00 on a daily closing basis for eleven consecutive days.

A daily close below $1,085.00 opens gates to $1,077.00 initially and $1,072.00, $1,065.00, and $1,055.00 later.

Intraday: Intraday support is found at $1,084.00, $1,080.00, and $1,077.00. Resistance is seen at $1,090.00, $1,093.00, and $1,095.00. We can observe a bearish h&s pattern in the hourly chart. Neck line is seen between $1,079.70 and $1,080.70.

Ahead of a series of major US data, the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and gold formed a bearish h&s patterns in their hourly charts.

The metal has been making lower lows in the four-hour chart. The metal made a triple top at $1,105.00.

Panic is likely to be triggered below $1,077.00. We guess the metal is likely to fall towards 1072.00 in case $1,077.00 is taken out. Use a rise to sell in favor of the trend.

Buying is available above $1,092.00with a target at $1,095.00. Strong buying momentum takes place above $1,096.00 towards $1,100.00, $1,103.00, and $1,105.00. Real strength is expected only above $1,105.00 towards $1,110.00 and $1,112.00

Review: At yesterday's session, we forecasted that the metal would hold the support between $1,082.00 and $1,080.00 to bounce towards $1,090.00 or $1,092.00. The metal reached a low at $1,080.00 and a high at $1,094.50.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 5, 2015

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Technical summary:

We saw a break below important support at 135.49, which has changed the short-term count. The consolidation, which has been taking place since late July, is best described as a small triangle. This tells us that a b-wave and a c-wave can be still moving lower to 130.04. A break below the low of red wave d at 134.28 will confirm this outlook.

The short-term resistance will be found at 135.49 and at 136.17 again, which needs to protect the upside.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 135.40 was hit for a nice profit. We will sell EUR at 135.40 or upon a break below 135.00 with stop placed at 136.20 and take profit sets at 130.25

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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 5, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair was forced to break out to the downside, owing to the bullish direction of the USD/CHFpair. The price is now below the resistance line at 1.0900, and it may reach support lines at 1.0850 and 1.0800 today or this week. The resistance line at 1.0900 is now an obstacle to any rallies on the market.

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USD/CHF: As it was expected, the USD/CHF pair was able to go above the recalcitrant support level at 0.9700 (which was formerly a resistance level). The price is now above the support level of 0.9750, going towards the resistance level at 0.9800. This is the target for today.

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GBP/USD: The volatility is currently high on the cable without bulls or bears gaining upper hands. The price will either break above the distribution territory at 1.5650 or break below the accumulation territory at 1.5550. A breakout to the downside is most likely to take place.

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USD/JPY: Because of the US dollar's stamina, this currency trading instrument went higher on Tuesday. This has resulted in a "buy" signal on the market, and the supply level at 124.50 could be tested easily. In case this happens, the price could target another resistance level at 125.00. This outlook, however, does not rule out the possibility of a bearish action.

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EUR/JPY: What has happened on this cross has already caused what could be called the beginning of a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level of 50. This could be a start of a serious bearish journey, owing to a possibility of a serious tamina in the yen.

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Technical analysis of Gold for August 05, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold continues its sideways movement between the levels of $1,080.00 and $1,095.00. A relief rally can be expected tpo take place any time until prices stay above $1,070.00. Please note that the metal is facing resistance going through its 50-day moving average, but a push higher would confirm that an intermediary low has been formed at $1,075.00. It is recommended to remain long for now, with risk at $1,070.00. Immediate support is seen at $1,075.00 followed by $1,052.00, $1,030.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,105.00 (range resistance), followed by $1,130.00/32 (fibonacci), $1,175.00, and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at $1,070.00 levels, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for August 05, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Yesterday, silver tested the level of $14.40 again before bouncing back off towards its 50-day moving average as seen here. The metal might be forming a possible double bottom, which would be confirmed after prices break above $15.00. It is recommended to remain long with risk around the level of $14.25. Immediate support is seen at $14.40/50 followed by $14.00, $13.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at $15.00 followed by $15.30 (fibonacci), $15.90/16.00, and higher. A break above the level of $15.00 could confirm a meaningful bottom formation around the level of $14.40.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at $14.25, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 05, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair dropped lower into the support area around 135.00 as seen here. Please note that a pin bar candle appeared with lows just ahead of 135.00, indicating a potential reversal. It is recommended to remain long for now with risk at the levels of 134.00. Immediate support is seen at 134.00 followed by 133.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at 138.00/139.00 followed by 140.00, 141.00, and higher respectively. Bulls should come back if prices remain above the level of 134.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 134.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for August 05, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair cleared the way to the levels of 1.5200/30 yesterday and is trading around 1.5220 now. Please note that immediate support is seen at 1.5050 and bulls shall remain in control until prices stay above that level. It is recommended to remain flat at the moment and watch for a reaction around 1.5050. Immediate support is found at 1.5050 followed by 1.4950, 1.4800, and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5250 and higher respectively. Any bearish setup is ruled out until the level of 1.4950 remains intact.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 05, 2015

The USDX is trading higher looking for an opportunity to test the resistance level of 98.29 after a successful breakout around the level of 97.57 to the upside. The current daily chart structure is still very bullish. The index could consolidate above the 99.00 psychological level in coming days. The MACD indicator is entering the positive territory.

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On the H1 chart, the USDX managed to perform a good rebound above the 200 SMA. We are currently watching a higher high pattern formation below the resistance zone of 98.09, which should be broken to the upside in order to test the next high around 98.40. The MACD indicator is entering the overbought territory.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 98.29 / 99.16

Daily chart's support levels: 97.57 / 96.57

H1 chart's resistance levels: 98.09 / 98.40

H1 chart's support levels: 97.65 / 97.12

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 98.09, take profit is at 98.40, and stop loss is at 97.77.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 05, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic data on Retail Sales m/m, Italian Industrial Production m/m, Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, and Spanish Services PMI is due. The US will unveil data about Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, Trade Balance, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0937.

Strong Resistance:1.0931.

Original Resistance: 1.0920.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0909.

Target Inner Area: 1.0884.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0859.

Original Support: 1.0848.

Strong Support: 1.0837.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0831.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 05, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will not release economic data today, but the US is expected to publish data on Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, Trade Balance, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So, there is a strong probability than USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 125.00.

Resistance. 2: 124.75.

Resistance. 1: 124.51.

Support. 1: 124.21.

Support. 2: 123.96.

Support. 3: 123.72.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com