Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for December 22, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair rallied through the line of resistance up to the 1.5400 levels last week, as seen here. The pair has pulled back and it is testing the back side of the resistance turned support trend line at 1.5330/40 levels for now. Immediate support is seen at 1.5330 (interim), followed by 1.5070, 1.5000 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5450/75, followed by 1.5550 respectively. It is recommended to hold remaining long positions and move risk to break even. It is possible for the pair to pull back before rallying further high towards 1.5450 levels.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long for now, stop at break even, target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of silver for December 22, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver seems to have carved out a potential right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulder formation at around $15.50/60 levels as seen here. The metal may test lows around the $14.90 level on the downside, before reversing. To put it simple, bulls should remain well in control untill prices remain above $14.50 levels. Hence, it is recommended to hold long positions for now, risk remains at $14.50. Immediate support is seen at $15.50 (interim), followed by $14.90, $14.50 and lower while resistance is seen at $17.40/50, followed by $17.80/18.00 and higher respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $14.50, target is open.


Good luck!


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EUR/NZD analysis for December 22, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD was trading upward.The price tested the level of 1.5856 in a volume above the average. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a lack of supply, which is a sign that selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5900 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6000. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe lack of supply around the price of 1.5750. My advice is to watch for potenatial selling opportunities after retracement.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5820


R2: 1.5840


R3: 1.5873


Support levels:


S1: 1.5754


S2: 1.5734


S3: 1.5701


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling the EUR/NZD pair since we have a lack of supply around the level of 1.5750.


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Technical analysis of gold for December 22, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold still remains subdued within the $1,195.00/1,200.00 levels. The metal is now expected to stay above $1,183.50 levels and push higher above $1,255.00 in the coming sessions. Bulls should remain in control unutill prices remain above $1,150.00 levels. Immediate support is seen at $1,183.50 (interim), followed by $1,170.00, $1,140.00 and $1,130.00 while resistance is seen at $1,235.00 levels, followed by $1,255.00 and higher respectively. It is, hence, recommended to remain long for now, risk remains below $1,150.00. On the flip side, a break below $1,140.00 would delay the bullish scenario and bring bears into picture again.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long for now, stop below $1,150.00, target is open.


Good luck!


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Gold analysis for December 22, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1,195.00. We are still waiting for a larger activity on the market and stronger price action. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.195.00 (currently on the test). According to the 1H time frame, we can observe weak supply on the market, which is a sign that selling gold at this stage looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities near the lows. Any larger demand in a high volume may confirm further bullish phase. According to the daily time frame, we can observe supply in an ultra low volume.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,195.96


R2: 1,296.44


R3: 1,197.20


Support levels:


S1: 1,194.44


S2: 1,193.96


S3: 1,193.20


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 22, 2014

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Overview :



  • According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair has still been moving between 0.9850 and 0.9790. So we expect a large range about 60 pips in the coming hours. The breakout seen at the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level (the double bottom in the daily chart) for that the key level is set at the level of 0.9741 because it represents strong support and coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. As it is known, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Therefore, it will be a good sign to buy above 0.9741 with the first target of 0.9848 in order to test the double top. It will call for uptrend in order to continue its bullish movement towards 0.9888. On the other hand, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts, consequently, the stop loss should be placed below the double bottom at the price of 0.9741.


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 22, 2014

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Overview :



  • The NZD/USD pair has been moving in downtrend since the last month. So, according to the prior events, the price of the NZD/USD pair has still been moving between the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels at the level of 0.7814 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at the 0.7709 level. Furthermore, the price opened below the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels (0.7770). Also, it should be noted that the resistance is set at the 0.7815 level today. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell below the level of 0.7815 with the first target of 0.7740. It should be noticed that the minor support has already set at the price of 0.7710. However, in case of a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7710, the market will lead to further decline to 0.7670 today in order to indicate a correctional movement at this level. Meanwhile, the H4 chart represents strong support at 0.7670 which forms the double bottom.


Intraday technical levels :


Date:22/12/2014


Pair:NZD/USD



  • R3: 0.7838

  • R2: 0.7817

  • R1: 0.7779

  • PP: 0.7758

  • S1: 0.7720

  • S2: 0.7699

  • S3: 0.7661


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 22, 2014

General overview for 22/12/2014 12:10 CET


There are some first indications that the current wave development is trying to break out to the upside, but first the important resistance at the level of 147.02 must be violated in a clear, impulsive fashion. If it happens, the price will enter the area, where it can try to break even higher above the neutral range. To do this, the upper zone boundary at the level of 148.23 must be violated. A lack of this kind of price action will result in another range zone congestion and a possible breakout lower through the golden trend line to the level of 144.98.


Support/Resistance:


149.77 - Swing High


149.63 - WR2


148.23 - Bullish Zone Level


147.74 - WR1


147.02 - Intraday Resistance


146.34 - Weekly Pivot


145.70 - Technical Support


144.98 - Intraday Support


Trading recommendations:


The impulsive wave progression might just have started and as long as the golden trend line is not broken, the traders should consider opening buy orders only. SL orders should be placed below the 146.34 level and TP orders should be placed at the level of 148.23.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 22, 2014

General overview for 22/12/2014 11:50 CET


As anticipated last time, the corrective cycle is getting more complex and time-consuming. Current wave progression indicates a possible triangle formation in wave Y brown and an upside breakout above the level of 1.1672 to complete wave 5 purple. The first target projection for this wave is at the level of 1.1733. Only a breakout below the level of 1.1500 would invalidate this scenario.


Support/Resistance:


1.1733 - WR2


1.1672 - WR1


1.1632 - Intraday Resistance


1.1610 - Weekly Pivot


1.1558 - intraday Support


1.1546 - WS1


1.1500 - Technical Support


Trading recommendations:


The impulsive wave progression has not been completed yet and traders should consider opening only buy orders from current price levels. SL orders should be placed below the level of 1.1558 and TP at the level of 1.1672 with a possible extension upside to the level of 1.1733.


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 22, 2014

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade in a range. It is supported by the Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment, NZD-USD interest differential and firmer commodity prices. However, NZD sentiment is dented by the 1.9-point drop in New Zealand Westpac McDermott Miller consumer confidence index to 116.7 in 4Q from 3Q. NZD/USD upside is also limited by the positive dollar sentiment and Kiwi sales on rebounding AUD/NZD cross.


Technical Comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD and stochastics are neutral.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7685. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 0.7660. The pivot point stands at 0.7765. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7795 and the second target at 0.7835.


Resistance levels:

0.7795

0.7835

0.7870



Support levels:


0.7685

0.7660

0.7625


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 22, 2014

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Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate. It is supported by the positive risk sentiment and demand from Japan's importers. But GBP/JPY upside move is limited by Japan's export sales and soft EUR/USD undertone.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining but stochastics is bullish at oversold levels.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 187.70 and the second target at 188.45. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short posisitions are recommended with the first target at 184.35. A break of this target would push the pair further downward and one may expect the second target at 183. The pivot point is at 185.20.


Resistance levels:

187.70

188.45

189.35


Support levels:

184.35

183

182.5


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 22 - 2014

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Technical summary:


Ideally, support near 1.5703 will protect the downside for a break above resistance at 1.5845 and more importantly a break above 1.5879 confirming a new rally towards 1.6100 in a possble b-wave triangle. Only a break below support at 1.5643 will invalidate the outlook for a b-wave triangle and call for renewed downside pressure towards 1.5398 and lower.


Trading recommendation:


We will buy EUR near 1.5703 with a stop at 1.5640.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 22 - 2014

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Technical summary:


We are still locked inside the red wave iv triangle, but it should just be a matter of time, before we will see a break out of the triangle towards the downside for a move closer to 143.81. In the short term, we expect resistance at 146.74 to protect the upside for the break below support at 145.39 confirming the decline towards 143.81. Only an unexpected break above resistance at 147.03 will shift the focus towards the upside for a new rally towards 149.78 and above.


Trading recommendation:


We will sell EUR here at 146.28 with a stop+reverse at 147.05 and place take profit at 143.95.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 22, 2014

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Consumer Confidence. The US will also publish the economic data such as the Existing Home Sales. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.2286.


Strong Resistance:1.2279.


Original Resistance: 1.2267.


Inner Sell Area: 1.2255.


Target Inner Area: 1.2226.


Inner Buy Area: 1.2197.


Original Support: 1.2185.


Strong Support: 1.2173.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.2166.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 22, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Monthly Report. The US will also publish some economic data such as Existing Home Sales. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the day.


Resistance. 3: 119.97.


Resistance. 2: 119.74.


Resistance. 1: 119.50.


Support. 1: 119.22.


Support. 2: 118.98.


Support. 3: 118.75.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 22, 2014

EUR/USD: This is a bear market and the bearish movement is supposed to continue this week. From the resistance line at 1.2550, the price dropped by more than 300 pips, closing below the resistance line at 1.2250. The next target to be reached by the price is the support line at 1.2200.


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USD/CHF: This is a bull market and the bullish movement is supposed to continue this week. From the support level at 0.9550, the price rose by more than 280 pips, moving close to the resistance line at 0.9850. That resistance level could be breached to the upside, and the next target to be reached by the price is resistance level at 0.9900.


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GBP/USD: This is a very volatile market. The volatility is caused by a struggle between the bull and the bear, though bears have upper hands. With further strength in the Greenback, the price could challenge the accumulation territory at 1.5550.


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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair went upwards last week, following a bearish run that made it go below the demand level at 116.00. The price was unable to stay below the demand level at 116.00 – as it rose steeply above the demand level at 119.00. This market could continue its upwards movement and as a result of that, price could reach another supply level at 120.50.


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EUR/JPY: This currency trading instrument closed at 146.16 on Friday, December 19, 2014, on a bearish note. The price ought to be bullish like some other JPY pairs, but the weakness in the EUR is too much to allow it. Only a movement above the supply zone at 147.50 could mean the end of the bearish outlook.


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#USDX Technical analysis for December 22, 2014

The Dollar index as expected after the strong reversal, is now making new highs getting closer to our target of 91 given some time ago by my bullish flag analysis. Bulls remain in control after the sharp upward reversal we saw last week. Bulls should continue to support this upward move as it seems that it has only just started.


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The Dollar index gave a new buy signal once price broke above the Ichimoku cloud last week. The short-term consolidation we observed last week was only a pause to this bullish reversal. The chart is fully bullish in ichimoku cloud terms and I expect to see 91 soon.


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The Dollar index weekly chart remains bullish. Weekly support at 87 was held and the new upward move that has just started, is expected to make a stop near 91 where the bullish flag target is found.


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Gold Technical analysis for December 22, 2014

Gold price remains inside the trading range we mentioned last week but is forming a bearish Head and shoulders pattern. The neckline at $1,180 is important support while resistance continues to hold at $1,220.


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Red line = resistance


Green line = support


Blue horizontal line = Head and Shoulders neckline


Gold price is below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart and this is a sign of weakness. Gold bulls will have to defend the $1,180-85 support soon. Resistance is found at $1,210-20. If support is broken, the neckline target is at least $1,130. If resistance is broken, I would expect Gold price to reach $1,250-70.


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The weekly chart also remains inside the trading range. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud and below the kijun-sen. Losing the tenkan-sen at $1,193 will be a bearish signal for Gold price. If week closes above the kijun-sen at $1,240, then we should expect an upward push towards $1,286. My longer-term view remains bearish.


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