USD/JPY analysis for May 17, 2019

USD/JPY has been trading upside as we expected. The price tested the level of 110.02. The breakout of 3-balance is present. Watch for buying opportunities.

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According to the 4H time-frame, we found that there is strong bullish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator and MACD indicator, which are strong signs that buyers took from control from sellers. Most recently, we got break of the resistance at 109.75, which is positive sign for USD/JPY. Our advice is to watch for buying opportunities with the target at 110.94.

Downwards references are set:

Balance high – 109.83

Daily low – 109.30

Upward references are set:

Swing high – 110.56

Swing low acting like resistance – 110.92

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Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD and AUD/USD on May 17

EUR/USD

The last unfinished wave on the daily scale of the euro is descending, from March 20. The wave is flat, correctional. Its shape forms a descending pennant. The structure today looks formed, which indicates the possibility of its early completion. After a weekly decline, the price reached the upper limit of the strong support zone.

Forecast:

The extremes of the current wave of the daily TF chart formed the boundaries of the channel, in the lower edge of which the price rested. There is a high probability of the formation of a reversal in the flat and the beginning of the rise of the pair to the upper boundary of the price corridor.

Recommendations:

At the next trading sessions, a flat "sideways" in a narrow price corridor is expected on the euro chart. Trading in such conditions is quite unpredictable. Purchases are possible on the smallest TF lot. Given the current wave of the bearish vector, sales of the pair from the resistance zone will be more promising.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1240 / 1.1270

Support zones:

- 1.1170 / 1.1140

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AUD/USD

The direction of the short-term trend of the Australian in the main pair is given by the downward wave of April 17. The wave has a pronounced impulse form. It is located at the end of a larger bearish trend that began in January, forming the final part (C).

Forecast:

A bullish reversal pattern was formed on the smallest TF of the pair. Within the last section of the wave, a short-term upward rollback is expected today. Return to the main vector of movement is possible by the end of the day.

Recommendations:

Purchase today is irrelevant due to their small potential. It is recommended to wait until the upcoming correctional section is completed and look for reversal signals to enter the instrument sales in the area of the calculated resistance zone.

Resistance zones:

- 0.6910 / 0.6940

Support zones:

- 0.6830 / 0.6800

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Explanations to the figures: Waves in the simplified wave analysis consist of 3 parts (A – B – C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed. Zones show areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking according to the method used by the author, the solid background is the formed structure, the dotted ones are the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time.

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EURUSD: The fall of the euro may slow down after inflation data, but the short-term trend is on the side of sellers

The US dollar continued to strengthen against the euro and a number of other world currencies on Thursday after the release of good fundamental statistics, indicating the growth of the economy.

According to the data, the indicator for the construction of new homes in the US rose in April. The growth is directly related to the increase in the construction of single-family homes.

The report of the Ministry of Commerce said that the number of bookmarks of new homes in April 2019 increased by 5.7% compared with the previous month and amounted to 1.235 million homes per year. There was also an increase in the number of construction permits, which increased by 0.6% compared to March to 1.296 million homes per year. Economists had expected a 5.4% increase in new home bookmarks.

Data on the labor market, though weekly, but still pleased traders.

The report of the US Department of Labor indicated that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week from May 5 to 11 was 212,000, while economists had expected that the number of applications would be 220,000.

As for the number of secondary applications, it decreased by 28,000 to 1,660,000 in the week of April 28 to May 4.

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Production activity in the area of responsibility of the Philadelphia Fed grew in May, which is also a good sign for the economy. According to the data, the Fed's business activity index-Philadelphia rose in May 2019 to 16.6 points from 8.5 points in April. The main growth was due to the supply and employment index.

The speech of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, who does not have the right to vote on the board of the Fed, was ignored by the market. Kashkari said that monetary policy was too tight during the recovery of the US economy, so the Fed did not manage to achieve a symmetric level of inflation. In his opinion, the committee should consider lowering rates to further stimulate economic growth.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the direction at the end of the week will depend on the data on inflation in the eurozone, the output of which is expected today in the morning. To save the bearish impulse, a return to the support level of 1.1170 is required, which will push the trading instrument even lower to the area of 1.1150 and 1.1100 lows. Considering the bullish scenario, a return and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1190 is required, which will push the euro to the highs of 1.1210 and 1.1240.

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GBP/USD. May 17. Trading system "Regression Channels". Theresa May can leave her post until mid-June

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -115.5862

On Friday, May 17, the British pound continues its non-stop fall against the US currency. As we wrote yesterday, for the pound, this type of fall is the most dangerous since it can last for a long period of time. At this time, the pound does not even need any macroeconomic data to continue the fall. The pound is falling by inertia, simply because traders continue to get rid of it. Meanwhile, high-ranking officials of the British Parliament held a meeting with Theresa May, in which the resignation of the Prime Minister was again discussed. Theresa May has promised to agree on a date for the election of the country's new leader in the coming weeks but it seems that she still hopes to hold her "deal" with the EU through Parliament on the fourth attempt. And if it fails again, it will remain at the helm of the country. Frankly speaking, in this situation, there are more questions to the Parliament than to Theresa May. Parliament could dismiss May at least 2 times. There were as many as 8 possible options for the country's exit from the EU but they were all rejected by Parliamentarians. Thus, this situation shows the fragmentation of opinions in the government at such important times, the lack of unity and also the courage to change the Prime Minister, if the current Prime Minister is unable to complete the Brexit procedure.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2756

S2 – 1.2695

S3 – 1.2634

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2817

R2 – 1.2878

R3 – 1.2939

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD continues its downward movement. Thus, short positions with targets at 1.2756 and 1.2695 are now relevant, before Heiken Ashi's indicator turns up, which will indicate a round of upward correction.

Buy-positions are recommended to be considered only after fixing the pair above the moving average with the first targets at 1.3000 and 1.3062. However, at the moment, the bulls are extremely weak.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR/USD. May 17. Trading system "Regression Channels". Inflation in the European Union may cause a new fall in the euro

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – sideways.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -127.3548

There were no important macroeconomic publications yesterday. However, the EUR/USD pair made another unsuccessful attempt to change the trend to an upward one, rebounded from the MA and immediately resumed its downward movement, but it could not gain a foothold below the Murray level of "-1/8" - 1.1169. Thus, the pair can start another round of correction and make another attempt to start an upward trend. Volatility on the pair remains weak, and there is no pronounced trend. The main newsmaker now remains Donald Trump. Its trade conflicts with China and the European Union attract the attention of market participants. However, at the same time, we cannot say that traders zealously work out information on these topics. Rather, these data are just interesting to market participants. Trump replaced anger at the mercy of the European automotive industry and postponed the possible introduction of duties on imports of products in this sector for 6 months. Nevertheless, it did not really help the euro Thus, we continue to insist that there is no fundamental background for the medium and long-term strengthening of the euro. This means that the euro can expect a maximum of small upward corrections, but the downward trend remains. Today, the European Union will publish an inflation report for April. The forecast is +1.7% y/y. Any value below this will help the dollar continue to rise in price.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1169

S2 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1292

R3 – 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement and fulfilled the level of 1.1169. Thus, sell orders remain relevant to the target of 1.1108 if the pair manages to overcome the level of 1.1169.

It is recommended to consider trading for an increase in the pair with extreme caution and small lots not earlier than fixing the price above the moving average line and the level of 1.1230 with the first goal of 1.1292. The intermediate target is 1.1260.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Analysis of USD/CHF for May 17, 2019: USD to sustain bullish momentum

USD/CHF has bounced off the 1.0050 support area with a daily close recently, but the bearish pressure is still sustained which might result in further corrections and consolidation in the process.

Recently, the US building permits report showed an increase to 1.30M which was expected to be unchanged at 1.29M. Further on, the housing starts increased to an annual rate of 1.24 million last month above the expectations of MarketWatch for a rise of 1.21 million. Besides, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to a four-month high of 16.6 in May after registering 8.5 in April.

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard made the case on that the "new norm" of low interest rates requires the central bank to let the inflation run hotter than usual. Separately, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed treated the 2% inflation target as a ceiling instead of a target and low inflation expectations are sapping the Federal Reserve's ability to respond to a future downturn. Traders of short-term interest-rate futures, by contrast, are betting the Fed will need to cut rates later this year to combat an economic slowdown.

Today, the US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 97.8 from the previous figure of 97.2. Besides, the CB leading index is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.4% and FOMC Member Clarida is going to speak about the future monetary policy which is expected to have neutral impact on USD.

On the CHF side, this week Switzerland's PPI report was published with a decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.2%. At the same time, the consumer price index increased to 0.2% from 0.5% in March 2019 compared with the previous month. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.4% while youth unemployment decreased. The SNB compares price stability with a rise in the national consumer price index of less than 2% per annum. At its latest meeting, the SNB reduced the inflation target of the current year to 0.3%, from 0.5% of the previous year while the expected inflation targets for 2020 was set at 0.6% compared to 1.0% for the last quarter of 2021. According to the SNB, the economic indicators are currently pointing to moderately positive momentum which makes the bank's analysts expect the GDP to expand by around 1.5.

As of the current scenario, USD is stronger than CHF currently, whereas US-China trade war and weak economic reports are making it quite hard for USD to sustain the bullish momentum. So, corrections may take place, but a strong upward thrust above may lead to a continuation of the bullish trend.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 1.0130 resistance area with certain indecision and consolidation. A break above 1.0130 area is required for further upward momentum which would not only break above the horizontal level but also the dynamic level of 20 EMA. As the price remains above 1.00 support area with a daily close, continuation of the upward pressure is expected.

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Bitcoin. The bulls were quick to take profits. Bitcoin exchange rate returned to the level of 7000 USD

No one seriously expected that Bitcoin without correction will get to 10000 USD, so the current decline is quite expected. To restart and resume growth, you need to stay in the area 7200 – 6800, which will lead to the return of new customers to the market.

Signal to buy Bitcoin (BTC):

Buyers are required to return and consolidate above 7200, that will necessarily lead to larger growth in the area of the resistance of 7600, where I recommend fixing the profits. Under a scenario of a further decline in Bitcoin, long positions are possible to return on the rebound from the low of 6800 and 6560.

Signal to sell Bitcoin (BTC):

Bears should wait for the recovery of Bitcoin in the resistance area of 7600 and sell from there, subject to the formation of a false breakdown. Sales immediately on the rebound will be more relevant in the area of the maximum of 8150. The main goal of sellers will be at least 6800, from which large buyers can declare themselves in the market.

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The forecast for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on May 17. The pound falls into the abyss. Theresa May will resign only after the completion

EUR/USD – 4H.

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair made an attempt to grow to the Fibo level of 76.4%, which ended in failure half way to the designated target. The quotes of the pair returned to the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1177) and even completed the closure under it, however, this closure can be easily interpreted in the future as a rebound. In the coming hours, I recommend watching the pair. Yesterday, the news was again in favor of the US dollar, the construction segment showed very good dynamics in April, the number of applications for unemployment benefits also turned out to be less than expected. Today, it's not a fact that the US currency will receive additional support due to the news, although several important reports will be published today (inflation in the EU and US consumer confidence index). In any case, the three previous attempts to close below the Fibo level of 100.0% failed. It is possible and the fourth rebound from this level of retracement. As a result, the rebound will lead to a new attempt to reach the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.1241), and closing of the pair below the Fibo level of 100.0% will significantly increase the chances of continuing falling towards the next retracement level of 127.2% (1.1102). There are no emerging divergences on the current chart on May 17th.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair remains, in my opinion, in the movement within the side corridor between the levels of 76.4% and 100.0%. Thus, the next rebound from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow buying a pair with the target of 1.1241. This is the nearest goal, but as yesterday's trading showed, it is also quite difficult to achieve in the current conditions. At the same time, the closing below the level of 1.1177 will allow selling the pair with the target at 1.1102.

GBP/USD – 4H.

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to fall in the direction of the retracement level of 38.2% (1.2765). The rebound of the pair from this level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 50.0% (1.2867). On May 17, a bullish divergence in the CCI indicator is brewing, the formation of which may coincide with the rebound from the Fibo level of 38.2%. In recent days, the pound has been falling non-stop, which indicates the strength of the "bearish mood". Thus, even if the rebound and divergence, without strong news, there is no need to count on a large pullback of the pound to the top.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

GBP / USD – 1H.

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As seen on the hourly chart, the pair GBP/USD shows the hopeless position of the pound even better. The fall of the English currency is recoilless. At the moment, the quotes of the pair have come up against the retracement level of 127.2% (1.2782). There is also a bullish divergence in the CCI indicator. Thus, as in the 4-hour chart, the pair shows all the signs of a desire to start growth. Nevertheless, I once again warn you that with such a trend strength, a pullback up may be minimal. The pair closed below the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next retracement level of 161.8% (1.2673). In the UK, they want to dismiss Premier Theresa May again. Both her party members and the opposition support this option. May's support among the population has declined significantly in recent years, which was well seen in the local elections. However, May still stands his ground and is not ready to resign before the Parliament accepts the Brexit deal.

The Fibo grid was built according to extremums from April 25, 2019, and May 3, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair on two charts have performed a fall to important Fibo levels and two divergences are brewing at once. Thus, the rebound from these levels will allow you to buy a pair with a target of 1.2865 and a stop loss order below the Fibo level of 127.2% (hourly chart). But I recommend cautious purchases or do without them, as the current fall is very strong. Closing the quotes below the Fibo level of 127.2% will make it possible to sell the pair with a target of 1.2673 and a stop loss order above the level of 127.2%.

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Trading plan for EURUSD for May 17, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair took off 1.1170 yesterdays having made the previous recommendations on purchases irrelevant. The pair is trading around 1.1175 levels at this point. It is expected to hit another low below 1.1167 levels before pulling back. The directional view from this position could be bearish/sell on rise until prices stay below the 1.1260 mark. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1225/30 levels and ideally, any counter trend or pullback should remain below 1.1225/30. Looking at the overall structure, bears could remain in control and hit new lows below 1.1111 levels respectively. Only a push above 1.1225 and subsequently a break above 1.1260 levels could undermine the current bearish outlook. A simple trading strategy could be to go short on a pullback towards 1.1200 levels and risk above 1.1260 levels with potential targets below 1.1111 levels in the future.

Trading plan:

Sell around 1.1200, stop above 1.1260, target below 1.1111 levels.

Good luck!

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Trading Plan for EUR / USD pair on 05/17/2019

There is no breaking news on the market.

In the question of the US trade war, China is frozen.

Trump's expectations for China's activity after the increase in duties in May did not materialize.

In Britain, Prime May seems to be retiring in June - finally realizing that her efforts to force Britain out of the EU cannot overcome the resistance of parliament.

The EUR/USD pair retreated from highs and return to the range.

We buy at the breakthrough of 1.1270 and upward.

We sell from 1.1130.

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Markets are trying to believe in the strength of the American economy: we expect a continuation of the decline in EUR/USD

According to the data on economic statistics, the number of building permits issued in the United States increased by 0.6% in April against a 0.2% decrease in March and a forecast of a 0.5% increase. In quantitative terms, it rose to 1.296 million versus 1.288 million. At the same time, the volume of construction of new homes increased to 1.235 million from 1.168 million last month. In percentage terms, the figure added 5.7% against 1.7%.

The so-called published values of the initial applications for unemployment benefits also went to hand. They fell to 212,000 from 228,000 over the past week and the investors were completely pleased with the data on the index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The index soared in the current month to 16.6 points against the April value of 8.5 points and expectations of its growth to 10.0 points.

Of course, the market, which missed economic benchmarks, reacted to this news with a convincing rise in the value of the US dollar against all major currencies without exception. By and large, this market dynamic can be described simply as a reaction to strong statistics and for some reason, an information guide for conducting local transactions.

In general, observing the general trend that has recently manifested itself in the foreign exchange market, we can say that while maintaining the generally positive sentiment regarding the dynamics of US economic growth, the dollar can receive support. On the one hand, it will win against major currencies because the central banks of competing currencies will clearly seek to weaken their currencies in order to support local exports. On the other hand, the preservation of positive dynamics may force the Fed to go for an increase once again in interest rates by the end of this year.

Of course, such a scenario is not obvious. But if trade negotiations with China still reduce the high risks for the American economy and support it, then the Fed will have to go to the promise of raising borrowing costs as early as December 2018, which, given the current situation in the foreign exchange market will be a supporting factor for the US currency.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating in a wide range of 1.1125-1.1260. It can continue the local decline to 1.1125 if the data on consumer inflation in the eurozone published today does not show growth above forecasts.

The GBP/USD pair is trading lower in the wake of the political crisis in Britain amid Brexit. Maintaining this negative trend will put pressure on the pair and its decline below 1.2780 may lead to a further fall of the pair to 1.2700.

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A review of EUR / USD and GBP / USD pairs on 05/17/2019: A little bit of good

In general, everything went exactly as planned. Unlike the previous day, the American statistics did not disappoint investors and allowed the dollar to continue its confident strengthening. Thus, the number of new construction projects increased from 1,268 thousand to 1,235 thousand, and building permits issued from 1,288 thousand to 1,296 thousand. Growth was expected but only by 37 thousand and 2 thousand, respectively, which in fact, it was 67 thousand and 8 thousand. Yet, the pleasant surprises did not end there since the total number of applications for unemployment benefits fell not by 16 thousand but by 44 thousand. In particular, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 16 thousand, which should have reduced by 8 thousand, decreased by 16 thousand. The number of repeated requests dropped by 28 thousand, instead of being reduced by 8 thousand. Hence, neither a single European currency nor a pound simply had nothing to defend and they continued to lose their positions.

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The situation over the pound is aggravated by the ongoing disputes around Brexit since after the conservatives demanded that Theresa May promptly submit a draft agreement on secession from the European Union to the House of Commons. Thereafter, the labourists immediately declared that they would not support him if he will not take into account their position on this issue. Given that the negotiations between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbin ended in complete failure, it becomes clear that the draft agreement could arrange either Labor or the Conservatives since the parties could not find a compromise on a number of issues -but not both sides at the same time. So, whatever plan Teresa May suggests, it will still be blocked either by one or another party.

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To be honest, the dollar bounce suggests itself not the first day and today, the common European currency is given a chance for revenge. The fact is that the final inflation data, which is published this afternoon, should confirm the fact of accelerating inflation in Europe from 1.4% to 1.7%. Such a rise in inflation will seriously inspire investors and they will resume purchases of the single European currency. Its growth will pull the pound along with it, however, unless someone again blurs something about Brexit. True, optimism will be somewhat limited by data on the construction sector of Europe, whose growth rates may slow down from 5.2% to 1.8% but this data is not as important as inflation data. Well, in the United States, no macroeconomic data are coming out today.

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Thus, it is most likely that the single European currency will rise to 1.1200.

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If British politicians again do not make loud statements, the pound has every chance to rise to 1.2850.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 17, 2019

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of weakness following a breakout of the lowest level of 0.6571. On the H1 chart, the level of 0.6571 coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor resistance today. Since the trend is below the 38.2% Fibonacci level, the market is still in a downtrend. However, the resistance is seen at the level of 0.6571. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Therefore, resistance will be found at the level of 0.6571 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6500. If the trend breaks the first supprt at 0.6500, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the levels 0.6469 and .6424.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 17, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3457. The pair rose from the level of 1.3457 (the level of 1.3457 coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 1.3505. But it rebounded from the top pf 1.3505 to 1.3477. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.3457 followed by 1.3425, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 1.3457. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3505 and 1.3457; for that we expect a range of 48 pips (1.3505 - 1.3457). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 1.3505. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.3505, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at the levels of 1.3532 and 1.3560. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3425.

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In June, the dollar can update highs

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Thursday was marked by the strengthening of the greenback to all major currencies. Yesterday, the dollar reached its highest value since May 3 - 97.8 points. Today, the USD index continues to trade near the 2-week high.

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The American currency was supported by the April release of the real estate market and the weekly report on applications for unemployment benefits, which showed that the US labor market is still in very good shape.

Yesterday, the yield on 10-year-old treasuries fell to a 2-month low of 2.354%, but after the publication of strong data, it jumped to 2.387%, which also supported the US currency.

Bill Sarubbi, an expert with more than 50 years of experience in financial markets, said that, in June the dollar may reach new highs.

His prediction is based on the theory of cycles.

"After the April high, the weekly cycle turned down. Therefore, then, after breaking through the level of 98.2 points, the rally did not take place. Now the weekly "bearish" cycle ends, but the monthly cycle enters the negative phase. Weekly and monthly cycles will go against each other until the end of May. Probably, until June, the USD index will be in the range of 96.6-97.8. Cycles are synchronized in June. At the beginning of the first month of summer, the dollar correction is likely to follow, which will end between June 8 and 12. At this moment, a solid foundation will be formed. As a result, by the end of June, the USD index is expected to grow to 100 points, "said B. Sarubbi.

The last time the dollar index touched this mark was in April 2017.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for May 17. Euro may take a pause, pound sterling continues to collapse

EUR / USD

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On Thursday, May 16, trading ended for EUR / USD by 30 bp lower. New sales of the tool are fully consistent with the current wave marking, involving the construction of a downward wave of 3, 3, 3 with targets under the 11 figure. The US dollar grew yesterday on all fronts with the basis of fairly strong reports on the construction of new residential buildings and the number of building permits. However, one should not compare the fall of the euro with the fall of the pound. Eurocurrency decline is absolutely calm, without having to feel the panic. Today, inflation in the European Union can provide new food for thought for the markets. The rate is expected to be 1.7% y / y. I believe that even exceeding the forecast will not cause strong purchases for the European currency. The theme of the trade war between the EU and America temporarily faded into the background.

Sales targets:

1.1097 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1045 - 200.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1324 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair is still in the process of building a downward trend. The current wave counting suggests a continuation of the pair decline with the targets of 1.1097 and 1.1045, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci. Thus, I recommend selling a tool with these goals and a restrictive order above the 50.0% Fibonacci level.

GBP / USD

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On May 16, the GBP / USD pair lost another 45 basis points. The pound sterling, therefore, remains in absolute outsiders. There is absolutely no reason to oppose the US currency with the pound. Britain is not happy with the current situation. Yesterday, Theresa May's possible resignation was discussed, or more precisely, until the middle of next month. The ratings of the leader of the UK are plummeting, confidence is diminishing every day. Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson has already outlined his plans to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Thus, the chair under Theresa May is swinging harder, but she does not want to retire all by herself. Moreover, what seems to be the problem is how Brexit will help her resignation and the arrival. For example, how about Johnson? After all, the EU flatly refused to revise the current version of the Brexit agreement. Respectively, Johnson will also have to negotiate with Labor and Parliament, as it is with May. This news background contributes to a further decrease in the pound and the construction of a wave.

Sales targets:

1.2780 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.2675 - 161.8% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.3175 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern implies a continuation of the instrument decline within the wave c. Thus, now, I recommend sales with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.2780 and 1.2675, which corresponds to 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt at any of these marks can lead to a departure of quotes from the reached minimums and even the construction of a sufficiently strong upward wave.

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Control zones for GBP / USD pair on 05/17/19

Yesterday, the pair reached a weekly control zone of 1.2792-1.2754, which indicates the need to close most of the sales. In addition, the pair is trading outside the average weekly move today, which indicates an increase in the probability of upward movement and a return to the range of up to 90%. For this reason, the "false breakout" pattern of yesterday's low within the control zone can be used to buy an instrument.

It is important to understand that the upward movement will be a correction to the bearish impulse, therefore, it is necessary to take care of fast fixations of purchases when reaching the first resistance zones.

An alternative model of continuing a bearish trend has a probability of less than 30%, which makes work in it unprofitable until the close of trading this week. Sales from current levels will not bring profit at a distance, which indicates the need to abandon them. If the instrument grows, it will be possible to look for an opportunity to enter the downward impulse.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Analysis of AUD/CHF for May 17, 2019: AUD loses momentum

AUD/CHF has been trading in a bearish trend after breaking below 0.7050 support area with a daily close. The worse-than-expected economic reports from Australia put the national currency under pressure. It resulted in further weakness, whereas CHF sustained momentum.

Recently, the Australian employment change report was published with an increase to 28.4k from the previous figure of 27.7k which was expected to decrease significantly to 15.2k. The positive employment change was quite remarkable but it was offset by an increase in the unemployment rate to 5.2% from the previous value of 5.1% and versus the expected level of 5.0%. Furthermore, the average hourly wages excluding bonuses advanced by 0.54% after cyclical adjustments while analysts predicted an increase of 0.6%. Meanwhile, the average wages growth accelerated a little on an annual basis. It came in at 2.34%, up from 2.27% in the December quarter. It was the fastest increase since the last quarter of 2014 while the forecast was 2.4%. The consumer price inflation inched up by just 1.3%, and the real growth over the year stood at respectable 1%. The Australian dollar is seen to be weaker against other major currencies.

Meanwhile, the SNB compares price stability with a rise in the national consumer price index of less than 2% per annum. At the latest meeting, the SNB reduced the inflation target for the current year to 0.3% from 0.5% of the previous year while the expected inflation target for 2020 was set at 0.6% compared to 1.0% for the last quarter of 2021. According to the SNB, the economic indicators are currently signalling moderately positive momentum which makes the bank's experts expect the GDP to expand by around 1.5.

This week, Switzerland's PPI report was published with a decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.2%. However, the consumer price index declined to 0.2% from 0.5% in March on a monthly basis. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.4%, whereas the youth unemployment decreased.

As of the current scenario, CHF is expected to maintain momentum ahead of the Australian monetary policy meeting minutes that is scheduled for release next week. The minutes is expected to play a vital role in the dynamics of AUD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently sliding lower quite impulsively towards the support area of 0.6900 after breaking below the support at 0.7050 recently. The price is residing quite far from the dynamic level of 20 EMA so the mean reversion may occur probably. Subsequently, it will lead the price higher towards 0.7050 again. If the price manages to reject off the 0.6900 area with a daily close, the probability of bouncing higher will be quite strong.

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - prospects for further movement

Over the past trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a volatility equal to the average daily 94 points, as a result of maintaining the inertial move. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the bearish interest is firmly entrenched in the market, and together with the week, we have a downward course of more than 250 points, without any correction. Going into more detail, we see that the quotation overcame a number of periodic levels on its way, but what is more interesting is that we slipped to the local minimum of February, which also reflects the strong level of 1.2770, which is located on the same coordinate. Summarizing the primary results of the end of the week, we made a decent profit, working on the decline from the breakdown of the psychological level of 1.3000. On the other hand, the news background had strong statistics about the United States. The number of building permits issued in April is increasing from 1.288M to 1.296M with a forecast of 1.290M, while at the same time, the volume of construction of new houses shows a significant increase from 1.168M to 1.235M with a forecast of 1.205M. The labor market has a similarly good news. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits is reduced from 228K to 212K with a forecast of 220K. Returning to the information background, we have a speech by the head of the 1922 Committee of the Conservative Party, Graham Brady, who said that Prime Minister Theresa May could leave her post after the second reading of the Brexit document in Parliament.

"We agreed that we would meet after the second reading of the document (on Brexit in Parliament - approx. Ed.) and agree on a timetable for the election of a new party leader," said Brady.

Coupled with the entire background, the dollar received significant support against the pound, and we saw the same decline.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we do not have any solid data on the States and Britain. Thus, a technical correction can play, if, of course, the information background does not fly out.

The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar is quite saturated in comparison with the past. Displayed below are the most relevant events.

Tuesday

United States 17:00 MSK - Sales in the secondary housing market (Apr): Prev. 5.21M ---> Forecast 5.36M

Wednesday

United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y / y) (Apr): Prev. 1.9% ---> Forecast 2.0%

21:00 MSK - Publication of FOMC protocols

Thursday

United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr): 6.7%

United States 17:00 MSK - Sales of new housing (Apr): Prev. 692K ---> 670K forecast

Friday

United States 15:30 MSK - Basic orders for durable goods (m / m) (Apr): Prev. 0.4%

These are preliminary and subject to change.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see how a steady inertial move led us to the level of 1.2770, which reflects our assumed foothold. It is likely to assume a primary slowdown within the level of 1.2770-1.2760, where in case of working off, we will have a long-awaited correction which many traders are focused on.

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Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

- Positions for buy are considered in the case of mining the level of 1.2770 and price fixing higher than 1.2800. The prospect of a corrective move: 1.2865 --- 1.2925.

- Positions for sale were held for quite a long time, and we managed to collect a lot. Now, if we consider these transactions, it is only in the case if there will be support for the information background, together with the fixation of prices lower than 1.2750.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in all time frames tend to decrease due to the massive inertial move. In the case of deceleration, the first to change indicators are the indicators for smaller TFs.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(May 17 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 22 points. The probability of accelerating volatility is quite high, in any outcome - whether this correction is due to overheating or breakdown of the level.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 * 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.2770 **; 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on May 17, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, technical analysis demonstrates a downward movement. The first lower target of 1.2773 is a lower fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Friday, technical analysis demonstrates a downward movement. The first lower target of 1.2773 is a lower fractal.

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Burning forecast EURUSD 05/17/2019

It seems the pound is to blame for the problems of the euro's growth. The pound's sharp fall in the last two weeks - by as much as 400 points - could not help but also pull down the euro. But as you can see, the euro's fall is much more modest. Buyers resist.

So, the euro is back in the range.

We are ready to buy the euro from 1.1225.

We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1130.

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GOLD pushes lower but price momentum may reverse. May 17, 2019

GOLD prices pushed lower quite sharply after reaching the $1300 price area with a daily close as US positive economic reports helped the greenback to gain momentum. The price plummeted. The price resided below $1290. The price is currently correcting itself.

Recently, US Home Building Permits report showed an increase to 1.30M. The reading was expected to be unchanged at 1.29M. Housing started to climb to an annual rate of 1.24 million last month. Economists polled by MarketWatch has expected starts to rise at 1.21 million pace. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in May rose to a four-month high of 16.6 after registering 8.5 in April.

Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard made the case on Thursday that the "new normal" of low interest rates requires the central bank to let inflation run hotter than usual as well as to employ tools like increased capital requirements to check financial market exuberance. Separately, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed in the current recovery treated the 2% inflation target as a ceiling instead of a target. Gold had found support earlier in the week from modest, haven-related demand as investors kept an eye on an escalating U.S.-China tariff battle and rising tensions in the Middle East. Stocks, however, had subsequently managed to claw back some lost ground as anxieties about tariffs receded for the moment.

On the technical view. The price is held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA currently which might push a bit lower towards $1265-$1276 support area before pushing higher with a target towards breaking above $1290 and reaching $1300 area again. The price formed Bullish Flag in the trend whereas a break above the Flag is expected to lead to strong upward thrust in the coming days. As the price is currently inside a corrective range between $1265 to $1290 where volatility in the price was observed earlier.

SUPPORT: 1265, 1276

RESISTANCE: 1290, 1300

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5cde46621cc82.png

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on May 17, 2019 for the EUR / USD pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the price can continue to move down with the goal of 1.1148 - the pullback level of 76.4% (yellow dotted line). Upon reaching this level, there might be a possible upward movement.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candle analysis - top;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price can continue to move down with the goal of 1.1148 - the pullback level of 76.4% (yellow dotted line). Upon reaching this level, there might be a possible upward movement.

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On the Western front: the euro and the pound will remain under pressure without change

Trade disputes between the United States and China are beginning to acquire more and more features of open confrontation. On Thursday, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce of China said that the United States was abusing defensive control measures, which made the negotiation process more difficult, while the United States was preparing to tax the entire Chinese import at 25%.

The report of the US Treasury on the inflow of foreign capital showed that foreign investors continued their exodus from the US stock market and government bonds in March. The stock market lost 207.2 billion dollars of investments for 12 months. The flow of exodus from treasures is not so large, but it continues to grow. China has reduced its investments by 20.5 billion, this is the maximum since 2016. Even if against the background of the total volume of investments in the amount of 1.12 trillion, it does not look like a large-scale and the trend is negative. China warns the United States that a one-sided increase in tariffs may well cause a reduction in investment in US government debt by a similar amount, which will provoke a budget crisis and completely eliminate the temporary benefits from an increase in tariffs.

EUR / USD pair

After the panic sales at the beginning of the week, European stock markets once again demonstrated their ability to grow, but so far, the recovery is limited. The demand for defensive assets remains high as the German Bond yields have fallen to 3-year lows, indicating that the overall pessimism in the eurozone has deeper roots, namely weak economic growth and low inflation.

For next week, the important day will be Thursday, when the PMI indices for Germany and the eurozone, as well as the Ifo indicator and final GDP data for Germany in Q1, will be published. The PMI indices looked rather gloomy in recent months. A large-scale decline in the production index, which was in a recession for three months in a row was somewhat smoothed by the resisting service sector but the pressure on GDP was strong anyway.

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Since the situation with production orders in April improved slightly, a slight rollback of production PMI is possible. However, there is a threat of a large-scale slowdown in exports due to the serious complication of trade relations between the US and China undermines investor confidence in recovery.

The euro will remain under pressure on Friday and recovery efforts will be limited. Support for 1.1165 survived on Thursday but the chances of re-testing are high. If successful, the downward movement may continue to 1.1130/35.

GBP / USD pair

The pound continues to fall and moves close to a three-month low of 1.2770. This time, the main driver of the fall is the internal political differences in the ruling party, where there is growing discontent with the results of Theresa May's work. May is strongly recommended to leave her post, despite the fact that she is preparing to submit a new version of the Brexit agreement to Parliament. It is obvious that the conservatives have lost their unity and do not believe that May will be able to achieve positive changes, which is regarded as a deterioration in the position of the party in the light of the upcoming elections. The resignation of May is able to raise a more radical politician who will lead the country out of the EU without any agreement, which puts pressure on the pound.

With regard to economic factors, the new introductory can be expected only on Wednesday, when new data on inflation will be published. Until Wednesday, the pound is unlikely to have reasons for strengthening accordingly. The goal is to reduce to the support zone of 1.2650/65. In a technical perspective, it is possible for a rollback today towards the resistance of 1.2860/65, but if it happens, it will certainly be used for large-scale sales from more profitable levels.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on May 17. Pound buyers are waiting for the right moment

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

While there are still differences within the British parties regarding Brexit, buyers of the pound will remain on the sidelines without taking any active steps. The best scenario for stopping the bearish trend today will be the test of the support level of 1.2769 with confirmation of the divergence on the MACD indicator, which is currently being formed. This will make it possible for you to expect a return above the 1.2805 range, from which we can expect more substantial demand for GBP/USD in the area of highs of 1.2858 and 1.2916, where I recommend taking profits. With scenarios for further reduction of the pair and the lack of rapid market movement up from the support of 1.2769, it is best to look at long positions for a rebound from the low of 1.2723 and 1.2627.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The lack of news on Brexit and differences between the UK parties continue to pull down the pound. The bearish trend continues, and today, the sellers' target will be a low of 1.2769, a breakthrough of which will lead to a larger decline in the pair to the support area of 1.2723 and 1.2672, where I recommend taking profits. However, before selling for a breakdown around 1.2769, one should pay attention to the bullish divergence of the MACD indicator, which can limit the downward potential. In case the pound grows in the first half of the day, short positions can be returned to a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.2805 or consider short positions to rebound from a high of 1.2858.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound further declines, support will be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2769.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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BITCOIN surprised bulls with a strong bearish throwback below $7500. May 17, 2019

Bitcoin has recently plummeted undermining the bullish bias. The price resided below $7500 area with strong momentum. Bearish pressure increased as bullish momentum weakened. Analysts did not predict a sudden bounce off the $7000 area.

It was said that this sell-off was a result of a massive sell order placed on Bitstamp. Notably, there was an over $500 gap between its price, BitMEX, Coinbase, and other major exchanges.

Bulls are still optimistic despite the recent bearish pressure and targeting 12k and 22k as take-profit levels. Many investors are currently interested in Bitcoin again which might increase the market cap for the coin. Hence, further upward pressure is expected as well.

As of the technical viewpoint. The price is currently showing certain bullish pressure below $7500 area which is a positive sign for the Bitcoin bulls. A daily close above $7500 is required for confirming further upward thrust and continuation of the bullish momentum in the pair. It will target $8000 and later towards $8400-500 resistance area in the future. As the price remains above $7000 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 7000, 7250

RESISTANCE: 7500, 7850, 8000, 8400

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on May 17. Eurozone inflation could weaken the euro's position

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The pressure on the euro persists amid weak eurozone reports. It is best to return to buying EUR/USD after consolidating above the resistance of 1.1181, which will lead to an upward correction to the level of 1.1205, where I recommend taking profits. In case the euro further declines after a weak report on inflation in the eurozone, it is best to consider long positions only from the support level of 1.1155, provided there is a false breakdown there, or to rebound from a support of 1.1138.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1181 will be the first signal to open short positions in EUR/USD, which will keep the pair in a downward price channel and return sellers looking to test a new week low in the area of 1.1155 and 1.1138, where I recommend taking profits. If the euro rises in the first half of the day after a good report on inflation in the eurozone, it's best to open short positions to rebound from a high of 1.1205 and 1.1237.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the euro will likely decline.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is very low. The euro can be supported by the lower boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1162, while growth will be limited by the upper boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1195.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Control zones for EUR / USD pair on 05/17/19

For the third week, the formation of a medium-term accumulation zone continues, where the main levels of support/resistance are monthly extremes. Today, the pair is trading within the a WCZ, which makes it possible to consider both the growth resumption model and the reversal pattern that will allow selling the instrument early next week.

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During the formation of the flat, the pair never went beyond the weekly average turn, which indicates a high probability of the continuation of this phase. Working in flat means closing and opening positions at the boundaries of ranges without transferring deals to the medium term.

An alternative fall model will be developed if the closure of today's US session happens below 1.1175. This will allow you to search for sales from the beginning of next week. It is important to understand that the probability of the formation of this model is still 30%, since the pair is in the flat phase.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, May 17, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Final Core CPI y/y and Final CPI y/y. The US will also publish the economic data such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, CB Leading Index m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1229. Strong Resistance: 1.1223. Original Resistance: 1.1212. Inner Sell Area: 1.1201. Target Inner Area: 1.1175. Inner Buy Area: 1.1149. Original Support: 1.1138. Strong Support: 1.1127. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1121. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, May 17, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Tertiary Industry Activity m/m and the US will publish some economic data such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, CB Leading Index m/m, and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3 : 110.56. Resistance. 2: 110.34. Resistance. 1: 110.12. Support. 1: 109.86. Support. 2: 109.65. Support. 3: 109.43. (Disclaimer)

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Forecast for USD/JPY on May 17, 2019

USD/JPY

On Thursday, the USD/JPY pair consolidated above the red line of the price channel, above the level of 109.48, closing the day with an increase of 23 points. On the four-hour chart, the current price is higher than the indicator lines of balance and MACD, the marlin oscillator in the growth zone. Perhaps the fully rising trend of the four-hour timeframe will help the price in forming growth signals on the daily chart. The first such sign will be the transition of the signal line of the marlin oscillator to a zone of positive numbers. Approximately, this can occur at the moment when the price rises in the triangle of lines of the ascending and descending channels. The average price mark of this triangle is 110.27. Further, a more confident growth to the MACD line of the daily chart in the 111.10 area is possible.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on May 17, 2019

GBP/USD

So, after a ten-day hike, the pound reached its target of 1.2772-1.2814, as yesterday it stopped on the price channel line of the daily chart. Now we are faced with the question - will the market move to correctional growth or will it continue to decline towards the next target at 1.2660? The indications of the leading marlin oscillator on the daily chart do not provide an answer to this question. A convergence could be formed, but not yet. On the four-hour chart, the oscillator also has not formed reversal formations, the signal line has been developing in the horizontal direction since May 9th. This means that the market trend is in a neutral position and the movement can be in any direction with the same probability despite the strong decline in the pound.

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On the other hand, if the price is consolidated below the price channel support line (below 1.2772), the marlin oscillator on the daily chart will continue to decline without a hint of convergence. On H4, the marlin will also move in a downward direction.

The market itself must show its intention. If the price consolidates above 1.2814, we wait for the completion of the correction at any of the indicated levels determined by the historical pivot points: 1.2852, 1.2887, 1.2925, 1.2960, 1.2987. In case of consolidation below 1.2772, a further decline to the 1.2660 target is likely.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 17, 2019

EUR/USD

Every day the euro is under increasing pressure from fears on the eve of elections to the European Parliament. The greatest imbalance is made by the "Italian protest" to the EU rules, both from the current government and from the opposition. The eurozone's trade balance for March showed a disappointing result of 17.9 billion from 20.6 billion. The forecast was 19.0 billion euros. In the United States, data on new housing starts for April turned out to be better than the forecast: 1.24 million versus 1.21 million. As a result, the euro lost 25 points, which it previously touched, in accordance with our scenario from yesterday, the resistance of the balance line of the daily scale.

Currently, the daily price chart is below the balance and MACD lines, the marlin oscillator is in the decline zone.

On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated below the balance and MACD lines, the marlin is ready for further decline. We are waiting for the euro to consolidate below the nearest target level of 1.1155 and a further decline to 1.1075 (the Fibonacci level is 123.6% from the decline line September 24, 2018 - November 12, 2018)

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com