The Ifo business climate index in Germany fell to 102 in November

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According to the Ifo Institute, the mood in German companies continued to decline in November, worsening their business forecasts for the next six months. The business climate index in November, calculated by the institute, fell from the October mark of 102.9 to 102.0. Experts predicted that the figure will be 102.3.

Thus, we can conclude that the German economy is showing signs of cooling, notes Ifo's president, Clemens Fuest. Manufacturing companies are unhappy with the current situation in the country and fear that the prospects for the success of their business are in doubt. However, according to Ifo, the number of companies willing to raise prices has increased.

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Saudi Arabia's oil production exceeded 11 million barrels per day

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According to Bloomberg, oil production in Saudi Arabia increased again, setting a new record. Now, the kingdom produces 11.2 million barrels per day.

In October, production amounted to 10.8-10.9 million barrels per day, has increased against the background of higher applications from consumers who intend to cut off hydrocarbon supplies from Iran due to US sanctions. The agency said that Saudi Arabia also uses oil from its own and foreign reserves.

However, the country's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that in December, it is planned to reduce oil production by 500 thousand barrels per day as a result of a smaller number of requests from customers.

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Unwillingness to risk prevails in the global market - experts

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Currently, a number of experts fix flight from risk in the global market. Many investors are in no hurry to invest their savings due to the unstable geopolitical situation and the recent collapse in the US stock market.

The two major powers, China and the United States, cannot agree on trade issues. Italian authorities do not want to take into account the requirements of the European Commission and to maintain the planned budget deficit in 2019. The situation regarding Brexit remains unresolved, although Spain has withdrawn its claims regarding Gibraltar, voiced as part of the UK's withdrawal from the European Union.

Experts of the largest bank Morgan Stanley believe that the weakness of the market may persist until next year, as the current failure of quotations is associated not only with overproduction but also with the simultaneous completion of the ten-year bull market in Asia. Experts believe that low oil prices adversely affect the US shale market, where the number of unprofitable projects will increase if the price of WTI oil falls below $ 50 a barrel. The high-tech sector of the US market also failed to avoid disappointment, analysts sum up.

The new week will begin with a study of speeches by representatives of the Reserve Bank of Australia, as well as an assessment of preliminary indices of business activity in Japan. In the future, the focus will be on German indices of business expectations, the current situation and the business climate of the IFO. On Tuesday, November 27, we should expect data on foreign trade from New Zealand. In Europe, consumer confidence indices will be published in a number of countries.

The environment will begin with a review of the API report on US crude oil and petroleum products. Germany will provide information on the consumer confidence index, and Italy, on the prices of leading manufacturers. On Thursday, data on GDP for the third quarter from the French authorities will be known, and Spain will provide statistics on inflation. German authorities will share data on the labor market, and in the eurozone will be released reports on consumer confidence and an index of business climate and economic expectations. Friday will open with the publication of Japanese labor market statistics. Unemployment in the Land of the Rising Sun is expected to remain at 2.3%. China will publish business indexes. On the part of the eurozone states, inflation statistics are expected. Experts expect a decline in unemployment in October to 8% from 8.1%, noted in September 2018.

Last week, oil prices dropped to their lowest levels since 2017. According to experts, by the current moment, Brent's losses amount to a third of the maximum reached in October 2018. However, at the moment, the price of black gold shows a positive trend. Brent crude added 1.66% of the cost, rising to $ 60.02, and the price of WTI increased by 1.37%, to $ 51.11. The US dollar index, which demonstrates the strength of the US currency relative to a basket of other currencies, decreased slightly by 0.01%, to 96.825 percentage points (PP).

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Euro and dollar are waiting for tests in the last week of autumn

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This year, the loss of the euro against the dollar amounted to a significant 5.5%. The positions of the "bulls" in the main pair while breaking as fast as a house of cards. Even the conciliatory comments of the vice-premier of Italy Salvini could not cheer up the euro. Recall, the official said, to the figure of 2.4%, no one is tied. You can take as a basis of 2.2% or 2.6%, the main thing is that the budget deficit should ensure the necessary growth of GDP.

The current week will test the strength of the dollar and the euro. The US currency risks falling out of favor because of a possible deterioration in the second estimate of US GDP in the third quarter. In addition, the Fed may signal a slowdown in the cycle of normalization of monetary policy in the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. Negative for the euro, extremely weak inflation in the region in November and the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China at the summit of the G-20 in Buenos Aires. While bears rule, the euro / dollar quotes remain below 1.14.

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Next year, the depleted euro will go on the amendment, but not immediately, experts predict. At the very beginning of the year, the exchange rate is likely to decline against the dollar. Euro currency, showing the weakest dynamics in the last three years, will be encouraged by the weakness of the dollar, which will lose a powerful support factor in the form of a strong economy. The accelerated development of the American economy will stop due to the end of the influence of the fiscal measures of the Donald Trump administration and the tightening of the Fed policy.

The single currency paired with the dollar may fall in price in the first quarter to 1.11, which is 2.2% lower than current levels. Then the course will be restored and at the end, the year will break through the mark of 1.18. This forecast is given by JPMorgan experts.

In addition to the expected slowdown in the US, the single European currency, according to analysts, should receive impetus from the increasing prospects for increasing the interest rates of the ECB in late 2019.

"In the spring, the euro should put an end to the breaking of the trend and start growing as the focus will shift to the policy of the ECB. The most significant change in 2019 will be the completion of the US economic lead-in period," says the JPMorgan review.

Fed officials expect to raise rates 4 times next year, plus another policy tightening at the December meeting. Thus, in a year, the rates will shift to the territory, where they will hold back the development of the economy. The members of the European regulator promised to keep the cost of borrowed funds at a record minimum until 2019.

Given that the ECB will raise interest rates once or twice in the new year, the choice of investors is likely to fall on the lender's currency, rather than the debtor, at the end of the business cycle. Therefore, the euro will exceed the dollar. The current account surplus is expected to be within 3.1% of GDP in 2019, and the US deficit will reach 2.6% of GDP. A surplus means that the region will be less vulnerable to capital outflows in the next recession.

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Oil gains balance and begins to grow

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On Monday, November 26, experts estimate the overall trading background in the global market as moderately positive. The cost of oil is gradually rising after the collapse at the end of last week, experts say.

According to analysts, the signals received from world stock exchanges indicate an improvement in the situation. Last Friday, trading on the US stock exchanges ended with a decrease in key indices by 0.5-0.7%. The collapse of the indicators occurred against the backdrop of falling oil prices and weak statistical data on business activity in the services sector and industry. "Fuel to the fire" poured and concerns about a possible slowdown in the global economy.

Currently, the global market is regaining lost ground. Futures on the S & P 500 index went up by 0.6%, trading on European exchanges also inspire optimism to investors. Index EuroStoxx 50 increased by 0.3%, recovering from a decline. At the Asian auction, experts fix multidirectional dynamics. Japanese Nikkei 225 added about 0.8%, while Chinese indices fell 0.1-0.4%.

Black gold quotes added about 1.5-2% after the collapse at the end of last week. Brent oil prices are trying to gain a foothold at around $ 60 and step over it, and WTI oil prices are going to be above $ 51 as part of the correction. Market participants fear an oversupply of supply and a slowdown in demand, while there are no signals about a possible reduction in oil production from OPEC +.

Experts consider the publication of the IFO business optimism index for Germany in November 2018, as well as speeches by several representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB), to be important macroeconomic events on Monday.

This week, information related to the US consumer confidence index, as well as the US housing market, will be of great importance. Experts propose to pay attention to the minutes of the Fed meeting, the index of business activity in the industry and the service sector in China, as well as the upcoming G20 summit. Recall that this event will be held from November 30 to December 1 in Argentina. The summit is expected to meet the leaders of the United States and China. American and Chinese leaders will try to resolve trade disputes and reach a compromise.

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Brexit on the march: Europe said "yes. Now it's up to the British

The Sunday EU summit presented no surprises. After Spain withdrew its demands for revising the draft agreement on Saturday, the meeting turned into a mere formality. The leaders of the Alliance countries supported the deal and handed over the baton to the British Parliament. Now, it has to approve (or not approve) the agreed agreement.

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It is worth noting that the Spaniards kept the intrigue almost until the last moment, putting at risk all the preliminary agreements. Madrid reasonably decided that for the first time in many years, it had gained effective leverage in the negotiations on the issue of Gibraltar. So the situation remained "in the balance" until Saturday evening. By the way, they practically achieved their goal. The British agreed to conduct direct consultations on the disputed territory, and not within the framework of general negotiations with the EU. Although the text of the transaction was not rewritten (in this case, London would have to be re-negotiated with the ministers), the Prime Minister of Spain received the appropriate guarantees. Theresa May's given curtsy allowed the barrier to the summit to be lifted, but it's still going around in London, where the deputies of the British parliament are concerned about the fate of Gibraltar as much as the Spaniards.

British Prime Minister is aware of this fact and does not hide it. At the end of the summit, she made a speech, where concerns about the future fate of the transaction were held in a red thread. Numerous protests, which took place in many cities in Britain, suggest that Theresa May will have to pass the main test in the House of Commons. Not only the Laborists, but also the supporters of the "hard" Brexit, whose interests are represented in the parliament by a considerable number of conservatives, protested against the draft deal.

That is why the pound almost did not respond to the events of the weekend. If the Spaniards really frustrated the summit, the Briton would have collapsed into several figures. In this case, the probability of the chaotic Brexit increased in many ways. But events unfolded in the outline of the most predictable scenario, so the pound remained in its previous positions, awaiting parliamentary battles.

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So, the draft transaction was approved by British ministers and leaders of the EU countries. What's next? There are several obstacles to the orderly Brexit. The most difficult barrier is the British Parliament. According to preliminary information, the deputies will consider the agreement on December 10-12, although this date may vary (but in any case, May will submit this issue for consideration before the Catholic Christmas, that is, until December 25). Rumors about the prospects for a vote are growing like a snowball. According to one information, some conservatives and individual ministers are preparing an alternative draft agreement, which will be offered to Brussels after a failed vote. According to other information, deputies do not exclude the holding of a repeated referendum, despite the mass of legal conflicts that will arise during the implementation of this scenario. There are more "exotic" versions, but most information sources claim that the House of Commons will not approve the proposed deal.

However, similar rumors preceded each of the key polls, and as a result, May won a political war. Brussels has already warned that there will be no negotiations on this deal. Therefore, if the deputies do not support it, the parties will return to the zero level. The European Union categorically will not accept any lightning "plans B". It is obvious that the British Prime Minister will put pressure on this circumstance, putting the parliamentarians in front of a simple and uncomplicated choice. Either they support the deal with all its flaws, or they take responsibility for the chaotic Brexit. All other scenarios look too unlikely.

In other words, if the deputies fail in voting in December, the probability of a tough Brexit will increase to the maximum. If the deputies do not dare to plunge the country into economic chaos and still support the agreement, then the Europeans will have the last word. So, the European Parliament by simple majority should support the draft law on the Agreement on the withdrawal of Britain from the European Union. After the European Parliament, there will be another stage, the EU Council. 20 countries that must represent at least 65% of the population of the European Union should support the above transaction. Only after that the "soft" Brexit will really become a reality.

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Naturally, the pound in the coming weeks will respond to newspaper headlines, comments by British politicians and ministers. This behavior of the currency has become traditional on the eve of important voting in parliament. This is a very difficult period for trading currency pairs involving the pound, too unpredictable price movements in the face of informational hype.

In my opinion, the chances of mild Brexit are still quite high, despite loud statements by opponents of May. It is worth recalling here that a week and a half ago, deputies once again collected signatures to launch a vote of no confidence in the premier. Against the background of a storm of criticism and indignation about the deal approved by the ministers, against the background of unexpected resignations, the conservatives could not find the required 48 votes. This suggests that Theresa May's position in parliament is not as weak as her opponents try to present.

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The pound strengthened after the approval of the EU draft agreement on Brexit

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The pound sterling slightly strengthened against the major world currencies after the EU leaders officially approved the Brexit agreement.

EU representatives warned UK politicians that the current proposal is the best possible and there is no "reserve plan".

Now the country's prime minister, Theresa May, should receive the support of parliament since the failure of the agreement can lead to the UK leaving the EU without a deal.

As of 11:20 London time, the GBP / USD currency pair added 0.27% of the value, reaching 1.2847. The pair EUR / GBP fell by 0.01%, to the level of 0.8847.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for November 26

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we continue to monitor the downward structure of November 20. At the moment, the price is in the correction. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, we should continue moving upwards after the breakdown of 1.2886 and the level of 1.2792 is the key support. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price is in a correction from the downward pattern on November 13. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we have expanded the potential for the top to the level of 114.34. For the Euro / Yen currency pair, we are waiting for the initial conditions for the upward movement, which should happen after the breakdown of 129.17. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we are following the formation of the local potential for the upward movement of November 20.

Forecast for November 26:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1430, 1.1403, 1.1372, 1.1352, 1.1315, 1.1289, 1.1271 and 1.1244. Here, we continue to follow the downward structure of November 20. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1315. In this case, the goal is 1.1289 and in the range of 1.1289 - 1.1271 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1244, from which we expect a rollback to the top.

The consolidated uptrend is possible in the range of 1.1352 - 1.1372 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1403 and this level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the potential target is 1.1430.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1374 Take profit: 1.1401

Buy 1.1405 Take profit: 1.1430

Sell: 1.1312 Take profit: 1.1290

Sell: 1.1270 Take profit: 1.1245

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2989, 1.2936, 1.2886, 1.2827, 1.2792, 1.2792, 1.2729, 1.2691 and 1.2603. Here, the price forms a local structure for the top of November 21. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2886. In this case, the target is 1.2936. The potential value for the uptrend, for now, is considered the level of 1.2989, before which we expect pronounced initial conditions.

The range of 1.2827 - 1.2792 is the key support for the top. Its price passage will have to develop a downward trend. Here, the first goal is 1.2729 and in the range of 1.2729 - 1.2691 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2603.

The main trend is the local rising structure of November 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2888 Take profit: 1.2934

Buy: 1.2937 Take profit: 1.2986

Sell: 1.2825 Take profit: 1.2793

Sell: 1.2790 Take profit: 1.2730

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0013, 0.9985, 0.9959, 0.9943, 0.9923, 0.9909 and 0.9885. Here, the price is in the correction of the downward structure of November 13. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9923 - 0.9909 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 0.9885, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The level of 0.9985 is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will lead to a short-term uptrend. Here, the goal is 1.0013, up to this level, we expect registration of the expressed initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 13, the stage of prolonged correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9985 Take profit: 1.0010

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 0.9923 Take profit: 0.9910

Sell: 0.9907 Take profit: 0.9887

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 114.34, 114.02, 113.82, 113.48, 113.19, 112.82, 112.61 and 112.37. Here, we continue to monitor the formation of potential for the top of November 20. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 113.19 - 113.48 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 113.82 and in the range of 113.82 - 114.02 is the short-term upward movements, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 114.34, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The range of 112.82 - 112.61 is the key support for the upward structure of November 20. Its price passage will have a downward trend in development. In this case, the goal is 112.37.

The main trend is the rising structure of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 113.20 Take profit: 113.45

Buy: 113.52 Take profit: 113.80

Sell: 112.80 Take profit: 112.62

Sell: 112.58 Take profit: 112.40

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3389, 1.3361, 1.3317, 1.3268, 1.3243, 1.3181, 1.3142 and 1.3116. Here, the price is in deep correction from the local ascending structure on November 16 and has issued a pronounced potential for the downward movement of November 20. The development of the downward structure is expected after the breakdown of 1.3181. Here, the first target is 1.3142. The potential value for the bottom, while we consider the level of 1.3116, after reaching which, we expect consolidation.

The short-term upward movement, possibly in the range of 1.3243 - 1.3268, the breakdown of the latter value will have an upward trend. In this case, the first target is 1.3317 and this level is the key resistance for the subsequent development of the ascending structure on the H1 scale.

The main trend is the local cycle of November 16, the formation of the potential for the downward movement of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3243 Take profit: 1.3265

Buy: 1.3272 Take profit: 1.3312

Sell: 1.3180 Take profit: 1.3145

Sell: 1.3138 Take profit: 1.3118

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7287, 0.7254, 0.7194, 0.7169, 0.7148 and 0.7095. Here, we are following the formation of the potential for the downward cycle of November 16. At the moment, the price is close to the key support of 0.7287. A downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7194. In this case, the target is 0.7169 and in the range of 0.7169 - 0.7148 is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.7148 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the potential target is 0.7095, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The breakdown of the level of 0.7290 will lead to the formation of an ascending structure. In this case, the first potential target is 0.7337.

The main trend is the formation of the downward potential of November 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7295 Take profit: 0.7330

Buy: 0.7256 Take profit: 0.7285

Sell: 0.7192 Take profit: 0.7170

Sell: 0.7144 Take profit: 0.7100

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 129.63, 129.17, 129.00, 128.45, 128.14 and 127.76. Here, we expect clearance of the initial conditions for the top of November 23. The movement upwards is expected after the price passes the range of 129.00 - 129.17. In this case, the first potential target is 129.63.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 128.45 - 128.14 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form the downward structure from November 23. Here, the goal is 127.76.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of November 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.20 Take profit: 129.60

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 128.45 Take profit: 128.18

Sell: 128.10 Take profit: 127.85

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 147.81, 147.32, 146.59, 146.32, 145.86, 144.91, 144.43 and 143.99. Here, we are following the formation of the local ascending structure from November 20. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 145.86. In this case, the target is 146.32 and consolidation is near this level. Passing the price of the range of 146.32 - 146.59 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 147.32. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 147.81, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 144.91 - 144.43 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to the cancellation of the ascending structure of November 20. In this case, the first potential target is 143.99.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 145.88 Take profit: 146.30

Buy: 146.65 Take profit: 147.30

Sell: 144.90 Take profit: 144.55

Sell: 144.40 Take profit: 144.00

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The pound gave the initiative to the dollar

The British pound received another good news but not in a hurry to strengthen against the US dollar. Yes, the European Union approved the deal with Foggy Albion and warned British lawmakers that there is no "B" plan. Also, the consequences of indiscriminate Brexit are much worse than an agreed exit from the EU. Nevertheless, the final decision will be made by the parliament and until its meeting, which is likely to take place on December 10-12, the sterling will continue to be in limbo.

Let me remind you, according to the consensus forecasts of Reuters experts, the chaotic Brexit will bring down the GBP/USD price to 1.2. On the contrary, the contract signed by both parties will allow the pair to grow to 1.35. It is possible that the range can be even wider from 1.15 to 1.4. In such an environment, many hedge funds and asset managers refuse to keep the pound in their portfolios. Let the net-short speculative positions on sterling be reduced but they are still close to extreme levels.

The dynamics of the pound and the speculative positions

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The acceleration of the GDP in the third quarter in a Foggy Albion amid a strong labor market as well as, the existing risks of accelerating inflation to 3% along with the Bank of England's willingness to raise the repo rate by another 0.75 percentage points argue in favor of underestimating sterling. However, in an environment where politics dominates macroeconomic statistics, large players prefer to wait.

Indeed, it is possible that Theresa May's arguments about general chaos in the event that the draft agreement with the EU is rejected by the British Parliament look reinforced, but do not exclude water that wears away the stone. So it was in the summer of 2016, when few people expected just such a result of the referendum that took place. However, the citizens of the United Kingdom got an idea of what it means for the economy to fall with the GBP/USD from 1.5 to 1.3 in a few hours and they may not want to step on the old rake.

Let's not forget that disapproval of the deal by the British lawmakers can lead not only to disorderly Brexit or to special elections, but also to a repeated referendum. In which, after the bitter experience, victory will most likely be celebrated by opponents of the so-called divorce. That is why UBS Wealth Management assures its customers that the sterling will not go deep below $ 1.2 and from this level there is a great opportunity to form long-term long positions.

In any case, the initiative in the pair GBP / USD will be owned by the US dollar against the background of the passivity of the pound in connection with the expectations of December 10-12. Its dynamics will be influenced by the release of GDP data for the third quarter (second estimate) and the publication of the minutes of the November meeting of the FOMC. In the case of surprises for the "bulls" on the USD index of surprises, the analyzed pair can move in the direction of 1.295-1.3.

Technically, without a release of the GBP / USD quotes from the triangle, it's premature to talk about the recovery of an upward long-term trend or the realization of target by 161.8% using the AB = CD pattern.

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 26. The pound is gradually recovering per Brexit deal

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Follow the morning plan, buyers plan to update the upper limit of the side channel 1.2886 to get beyond this area will not be so easy. A breakthrough of 1.2886 requires a good informational occasion and preferably associated with Brexit, which will open the way to the highs of 1.2962 and 1.3040. In the case of a decrease in the pound in the second half of the day, long positions can return to the false breakdown from the lower border of the channel 1.2800 or to rebound from the low of 1.2723.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears will manifest themselves after updating the resistance of 1.2886 but the main task for the second half of the day will be a decline to the support area of 1.2800 and consolidation under it. This will keep the downward potential in GBP / USD and lead to a minimum of 1.2723 and 1.2663, where I recommend to fix profits. In the case of growth above 1.2886, it is best to pay attention to sales of the pound after testing the maximum of 1.2962.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The Bollinger Bands indicator indicates a decrease in volatility and does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 26. Euro buyers are trying to return to the market

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

With the task for the first half of the day, buyers of the European currency successfully coped and reached the level of 1.1377, which I paid attention to in my morning forecast. At the moment, the repeated test of 1.1377 after a slight downward correction may lead to the continuation of the strengthening of EUR / USD with a maximum of 1.1417, where I recommend taking profits. With the euro decline scenario in the second half of the day, long positions can be returned to rebound from the support of 1.1328 against the background of the speech of the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears made an attempt to sell from the level of 1.1377, to which I paid attention in the morning review, but there was no major downward movement, which indicates the presence of buyers in the market. As long as trade is conducted below 1.1377, pressure on the euro will continue, which leaves hope for a return to morning support of 1.1328. In the case of EUR / USD growth above 1.1377 in the second half of the day, it is best to return to short positions on a rebound from the maximum of 1.1417.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade averages and 50-day moving averages, which indicates some market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

If the euro declines in the afternoon, the support will be provided by the average Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1345. The breakthrough of the upper boundary in the area of 1.1335 will be an additional signal to buy euros.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Simplified wave analysis of EUR / USD pair for the week of November 26

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

The descending wave of September 24 formed a correction (B) in the older model. By some signs, the wave has completed formation.

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Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

From November 12, a bullish wave with a reversal potential started up. The structure lacks the final growth phase.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Preparation for the final price spurt is nearing completion. The target zone of the upcoming rise is located in the area of the 117th price figure and recommended purchases of the pair.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1490 / 1.1540

Support areas:

- 1.1360 / 1.1310

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the number of wave markings used by the author. While the dotted shows the formed movement.

Note: The wave algorithm doesn't take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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Bitcoin analysis for November 26, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found a bearish breakout of the bearish flag in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found the strong supply zone (a blue rectangle), which is another strong resistance. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities and go with the direction of the trend. The downward target is set at the price of $3.454.

Support/Resistance

$4.077 – Intraday resistance

$3.454– Intraday support

$3.454 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of Gold for November 26, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading upwards sideways at the price of $1,225.70. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I have found a rejection from the resistance (resistance trendline and upper Keltner band) at the price of $1,227.00. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,220.00 and at the price of $1,217.60.

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Forecast for EUR / USD pair for November 26, 2018

EUR / USD pair

On Friday, the euro lost 67 points on weak PMI and waiting for the decision of the EU Brexit summit while investors insured and closed positions. Business activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone in November fell from 52.0 to 51.5 and the PMI in the service sector fell from 53.7 to 53.1. The US PMI indices also came out with a decline but the mood of the market has already been set.

The outcome of the EU summit was predictable and all countries of the bloc accepted the treaty, and it remains to ratify it by the parliaments of the EU and the UK until December 25. There can be difficulties on the part of the British Parliament here, hence, investors continue to hold a waiting position and we are waiting for the euro to fall further.

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On the daily chart, the price turned down from the red balance line and fixed behind the balance line and the MACD line (blue) on the four-hour chart. Marlin indicators on both scales signal a declining run. The target of 1.1190 is now open. Next, we can wait for the price on the line of the price channel in the 1.1110 area.

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Brexit: EU leaders in Brussels endorse political declaration and agreement on Brexit

The most anticipated weekend event was quite successful, however, this did not affect the quotes of the British pound, which continued to trade in the side channel in tandem with the US dollar. This is due to the fact that, despite the signing and approval of the political declaration, there are quite a lot of "buts" with which the British Prime Minister Theresa May will not be so easy to handle.

As it became known, yesterday in Brussels, the European Union and the United Kingdom made a deal on Brexit. The terms of the agreement were approved with lightning speed in just a few minutes. According to the data, the parties approved not only the agreement but also the political declaration, which was presented by Donald Tusk last week and which was agreed by British Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

However, a real breakthrough on the way to the approval of the agreement did not happen. First of all, these two documents will only be sent to the British Parliament. Also this Thursday, the Bank of England will present a detailed economic analysis of the agreement concluded by the UK and the European Commission. Then, only on December 11, the next vote on the deal with the EU in the House of Commons will be held.

Let me remind you that, according to the terms of the agreement, the UK will pay 39 billion pounds to the EU treasury against previously accepted commitments to the European budget.

As for the technical picture of the GBP / USD pair, then the pound buyers need to return to the weekly resistance level of 1.2880 and break through it. Only after that, it will be possible to count on the continuation of the upward correction in the area of highs 1.2970 and 1.3040. In the event of a break of support at 1.2785, the pressure on the pound will increase, which will lead to a larger sale with an update of the lows of 1.2720 and 1.2660.

The Canadian dollar was marked by a strong surge in volatility on Friday amid good data on retail sales and inflation, but this did not lead to a change in the technical pattern in the USD / CAD pair.

As indicated in the report, retail sales in Canada increased in September of this year. The increase was due to higher demand for food. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, retail sales in Canada increased by 0.2% compared with August and amounted to 50.93 billion Canadian dollars. Economists had expected the data to remain unchanged.

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As I noted above, the main growth was due to an increase in sales of food and beverages by 0.9%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, retail sales in Canada increased by 3.8%.

Inflation in Canada has accelerated. According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, in October of this year, consumer price growth was 2.4%, after 2.2% in September. Economists had expected consumer prices to rise by 2.2% over the reporting period compared with the same period of the previous year.

Compared with the previous month, consumer prices rose by 0.3%.

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Indicator analysis. The daily review of the currency pair GBP / USD for November 26, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the bears will once again try to reach the support line, the price will move down, with the first target of 1.2772, the support line (red bold line). Possible side channel.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis is neutral;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the price will move downwards, with the first target of 1.2772, the support line (red bold line). Then the top is possible.

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on November 26, 2018

Australia's drought and economic slowdown are pushing the "Australian" down

AUD / USD pair

In recent days, the Australian dollar has been falling along with European currencies, with additional pressure on commodity prices. On Friday, oil lost about 6% and iron ore -2.49%. But in addition to this, the last half of the year in Australia has been experiencing intense heat which was the strongest since 1965 and in some regions even since 1920. To eliminate the extinction of the kangaroo from drought, the government allowed the shooting of animals. Agriculture and processing companies are declining, and weather forecasters say that everything has just begun. Even the shares of packaging manufacturer Pro-Pac Packaging did not withstand the pressure and collapsed by 19% today. The Australian stock market (S & P / ASX200) is losing 0.85% against the background of the general growth of stock indices of the Asia-Pacific Region (Nikkei 225 0.61%, China A50 0.71%).

In this situation, the "Australian" looks even overbought. On the four-hour chart, the price for all indicators is under pressure. After the price overcomes the price channel line at 0.7217, coinciding with the Friday minimum, we expect a further decline in the Australian dollar to the MACD line on the daily scale at least - 0.7165 of November 13 and further to the price channel line in the 0.7120 area.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for November 26. The pound can rise to 1.2950

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Wave counting analysis:

During the November 23 trading session, the GBP / USD currency pair lost 65 basis points, thus, the construction of the proposed wave C is questioned. At the moment, the trend section of November 15 takes a three-wave one, that is, a correctional form. If this is true, the decline in quotations will continue, and the entire wave picture will require adjustments. The pound sterling remains in the zone of turbulence due to the many unresolved issues associated with Brexit, which affects the wave pattern, which takes a very unusual look.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.2935 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

1.2991 - 38.2% of Fibonacci

1.3175 - 0.0% Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2695 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.2637 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair remains in the process of building an upward set of waves, but at any time the wave structure may take a more complex form. Thus, now I recommend trading very carefully and, if possible, only for a short time. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 76.4% will indicate that the pair is ready to build a new upward wave with targets located near the level of 1.2935, which equates to 50.0% Fibonacci.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for November 26. The pair is preparing for a new rising wave

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Wave counting analysis:

During the Friday trading, the EUR / USD currency pair lost about 70 basis points. Thus, the estimated wave 2 of the new upward trend section received a three-wave view. If the current wave counting is correct, then from the current positions the pair will resume growth within wave 3 with targets located near the calculated mark of 100.0% Fibonacci. The unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 38.2% also warns of the readiness of the instrument to increase.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1215 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1500 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.1577 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build an upward set of waves. Thus, now I recommend buying a pair with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1500 and 1.1577, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% in Fibonacci. A successful attempt to break the mark of 1.1324 will most likely lead to the complication of the entire downward stretch of the trend, originating from September 24, and will require adjustments.

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GBP / USD: plan for the European session on November 26. The declaration is signed, now it is up to the Parliament of Great

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

The pound didn't change much after the news that a political declaration on Brexit was signed by all EU members over the weekend. Breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance level of 1.2835 will be a signal to buy GBP / USD, but a more visible option for opening long positions is around 1.2785-1.2780. The main task at the beginning of this week remains a breakthrough and consolidation above 1.2881, which will lead to the formation of an uptrend. In the case of a decline below the support level of 1.2785, it is best to return to long positions in GBP / USD to rebound from a low of 1.2723.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Bears need to stay below 1.2835, and the formation of a false breakout there will be a signal to sell GBP / USD, which will lead to a further decline with the release to the lower border of the side channel 1.2787. A breakthrough of this range will collapse the pound to the lows of 1.2723 and 1.2663, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a rise above resistance 1.2835 in the second half of the day, it is best to open short positions to rebound from a new high of 1.2881.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a likely continued decline in the pound.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EU approved Brexit agreement with Britain

On Sunday, both sides signed documents on leaving Britain from the EU which took only 2 hours for the whole procedure. Fears that Spain will block the signing because of the dispute over Gibraltar or will prevent the issue of the border with Ireland did not come true.

So, this is Theresa May's victory but now she has a battle in the British Parliament. There is an opposition there, both within her conservative party and among the opposition Laborites. .

So, we are waiting for the opening of the market: At the opening, there may be a gap up on the pound and on the euro amid the news about the EU agreement with Britain (this text was written on November 25 at 10.30 London time).

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 26, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot: 0.9951.

The USD/CHF pair continues to trade upwards from the level of 0.9951 on the H4 chart. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.9951, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9951, which coincides with the daily pivot point. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9951 and 1.0058. So, the support stands at 0.9951, while daily resistance is found at 1.0058. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0058. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0058/0.9951with the first target at the level of 1.0142; and continue towards 1.0216. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0058 today, the market will decline further to 0.9860.

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EUR/USD analysis for November 26, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards sideways at the price of 1.1367. Anyway, according to the H4 time – frame, I have found that there is a breakout of the bearish flag in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. The short – term trend is bearish and my advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1220.

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Panic is growing, in winning the dollar and yen

The sharp decline in oil prices increases the effect of slowing inflation expectations. The yield on 5-year inflation-protected bonds Tips dropped to a minimum since December 2017, lost 0.34 n from a peak in May, which indicates a high probability of seeing inflation in the month below forecasts.

The tendency adds nervousness to the players, the tonality of the speeches of the Fed members and so has changed after the meeting on November 8, there are more and more concerns about slowing down the economy or even recession next year. There is growing evidence that the tightening of financial conditions in Asia is leading to a slowdown in the markets of developed countries, new orders in the US will decline, and the ISM index will also go down.

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Current conditions contribute to the growth in demand for the dollar. Before the G20 summit, special attention will be directed to the rhetoric of FOMC members, if the market decides that the Fed is changing plans and is only ready for two increases, this could cause a sharp drop in Treasury yields while simultaneously increasing panic. Thus, commodity assets will be under threat, the dollar and especially the yen may be in high demand, gold prices may also rise.

EurozoneBusiness activity in the eurozone continues to fall. According to Markit, in November, PMI in the services sector fell to 53.1 n versus 53.7 n a month earlier, in the manufacturing sector, a decline from 51.3 n to 51.4 n, 25-month and 65-month lows were set, the composite index decreased from 53.1 n to 52.4 n, and this is a 47-month low.

The decline in business activity inevitably leads to a decrease in GDP, which, against the background of curtailing the asset repurchase program and the threat of slowing inflation, looks rather alarming for the economic prospects of the eurozone. The ECB has not even had time to begin the normalization process, and half of the advances from the incentive program are actually canceled.

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The direction of capital flows for the euro is negative, and this situation may worsen in the near future. There are two main reasons, the planned reduction in the Fed's balance sheet and, as a consequence, the monetary base decline, this effect imposed on the launch of the capital repatriation program will contribute to an increased demand for the dollar. The second reason is purely financial, the risk premium in the eurozone, calculated as a comparison of S & P500 and DAX futures yields with US and German futures yields for 30-year T-bills, is firmly in favor of the dollar, and even the recent fall in the stock market could not change the overall perception of risks.

Today, IFO will present its version of the economic activity in Germany, the forecast is negative. A little later, several members of the ECB will give a look at the financial situation (Novotny, Ker, and Pratt), Draghi will end the day, so the likelihood of euro volatility will increase by Monday evening.

The EUR / USD under pressure, growth is limited by resistance 1.1390, more likely to decline to 1.1270 with an eye to 1.1220.

Great Britain

As expected, the EU countries approved a plan for the UK to leave the European Union, despite a number of minor disagreements. The pound practically did not react to the results of the summit; a possible strengthening, if it nevertheless responds with some delay, is unlikely to be protracted. The chances of passing an agreement in the British Parliament are regarded as low.

Voting will take place in 2 weeks, all this time the political establishment will be busy with calculating probabilities, and members of parliament will desperately try to sell their votes more expensively. A negative outcome is likely to end with a sharp decline in the pound and the resignation of Theresa May, and possibly early parliamentary elections, a positive one, with a sharp increase in the pound. The second scenario is possible if the junior partner of the conservatives in the coalition is changed by the DUP party, which does not yet support the agreement.

At the beginning of the week, important macroeconomic publications are not planned, therefore the GBP / USD rate will be determined solely by political factors. An unstable equilibrium can be broken by some unexpected insider, in the absence of news, the most likely scenario is trading in a range with a slight upward trend. The pound is supported by the trend line at 1.2780, resistance 1.2910 / 20.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for November 26, 2018

USD/JPY is currently struggling at the edge of 113.00 area after impulsive bearish pressure, bouncing off 114.00 recently. While USD is struggling with the economic reports, JPY managed to gain momentum which is currently being recovered ahead of the FOMC Meeting. The US regulator is widely expected to raise the official funds rate this time.

USD has been struggling against JPY amid downbeat economic reports. However, recent reports from Japan weakened the bearish pressure quite well. The pair is expected to extend bullish momentum in the coming days. Today the economic calendar contains no economic report or event in the US. Tomorrow US Consumer Confidence report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 136.2 from the previous figure of 137.9. The report might lead to certain weakness on USD if the forecast comes true or the report reveals worse than expected figures. Besides, the US rate-setting committee is likely announce the rate hike decision which is certainly bullish for USD.

On the JPY side, the economy has been facing some headwinds that is confirmed by downbeat reports. Moreover, imbalance in the financial sector is hampering the small bank's progress. That's why BOJ is trying to adjust the inflation and bond purchases. Nevertheless, BOJ is still quite optimistic with the development, but the looming financial catastrophe affected JPY growth. Today Japan's Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published with a decrease to 51.8 from the previous figure of 52.9 which was expected to have a slight increase to 53.0 Ahead of the Core CPI, Retail Sales and Unemployment Rate reports this week with mixed expectations may lead to certain indecision in the pair.

Meanwhile, in light of downbeat economic report from Japan USD is likely to extend the upward trend versus JPY. USD obviously finds support from broad expectations of the imminent rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Thus, the market sentiment encourages further USD gains over all majors in the market.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 113.00 area with an impulsive bullish momentum which may lead to further bullish pressure if the price manages to remain above 113.00 area with a daily close today. The price being held by the dynamic level of Tenkan line and Kumo Cloud as support is expected to lead to certain bullish pressure in the coming days. Ahead of high impact economic events and reports this week on both currencies of this pair, price is expected to be quite volatile. As the price remains above 112.00 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 112.00, 113.00

RESISTANCE: 114.50, 115.00

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for November 26, 2018

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair continue to move upwards from the level of 0.7225. This week, the pair rose from the level of 0.7225 to a top around 0.7299 but it rebounded to set around the spot of 0.7242. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7299 followed by 0.7352, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7185 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7250 and 0.7352; so we expect a range of 102 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7299, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7299) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7299 with the first target at 0.7352 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7394. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7394 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the AUD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7185, a further decline to 0.7069 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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EUR / USD: plan for the European session on November 26. Euro fell amid weak data released on Friday

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Despite a decline in the euro on Friday amid weak data on the eurozone economy, demand returned on Monday after a political declaration on Brexit was approved at the weekend in Brussels. The main goal of buyers is the level of 1.1377, a breakthrough of which will lead to a larger growth of EUR / USD with a test of last week's highs around 1.1417, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the event of a euro decline in the morning, support will be provided by the area of 1.1328. Otherwise, you can buy to rebound from a minimum of 1.1296.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Today comes another series of fundamental data for Germany, which may again lead to a decline in the euro. An unsuccessful consolidation and return under the level of 1.1377 will be a signal to sell EUR / USD with a test of last week's low around 1.1328. The main task remains the breakdown and consolidation below the level of 1.1328, which will lead to the resumption of the downward trend with an exit to the lows of 1.1296 and 1.1262, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above 1.1377, you can sell the euro to rebound from a maximum of 1.1417.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which, in the event of a correction, the euro will act as resistance.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator decreases, which does not give clear signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Indicator analysis. The daily review of the EUR / USD currency pair for November 26, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday after the news release, a downward movement can continue, with the first goal of 1.1339, the lower fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly chart - down.

General conclusion:

On Monday until 10.00 London time, the upward movement is upward with the first goal of 21 average EMA 1.1386 (black thin line). After the news at 10.00, the bottom is possible.

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GBP / USD. November 26th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". December 25, the date of the vote in the British Parliament

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -10.6618

The currency pair GBP / USD on Monday, November 26, was not able to overcome the Murray level of "3/8" and resumed the downward movement. As we expected, even though the EU leaders approved the agreement with the UK over the weekend, traders are tired of buying a pound on rumors. The British currency is now likely to receive tangible support if the British parliament approves Theresa May's Brexit proposal and, thus, the whole epopee ends. Up to this point, the British pound may not fall, but it is also unlikely to grow. On Monday, scheduled to speak of Mark Carney, Chairman of the Bank of England, in which he can again comment on the situation on Brexit. Potentially, this performance may cause a reaction in the foreign exchange market. Also, Theresa May reported that the vote on Brexit in the British Parliament will take place on December 25, that is, in a month. This means that the pound sterling will be under pressure at least until this date. From a technical point of view, all indicators turned down, so the trend in the instrument can be traced very clearly. If the pound does not receive fundamental support this week, then by Friday, the pair may drop to 1.2700.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2756

S2 - 1.2695

S3 - 1.2634

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2817

R2 - 1.2878

R3 - 1.2939

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD has fixed below the moving average line, therefore, at the moment, short positions with the target of 1.2756 have become relevant again. A color of 1-2 bars in purple will indicate a turn of corrective movement and will serve as a signal to manually reduce the short positions.

Orders for the purchase can be considered no earlier than fixing the price above the moving average, which again will mean a change of trend to ascending. This is possible, but, based on current conditions, there is no high potential for pound growth.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR / USD. November 26th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". EU leaders approve "deal" between EU and UK

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -138.1231

The currency pair EUR / USD on Monday, November 26, resumed the downward movement, broke the moving and Murray level of "2/8". As we assumed several times last week, the euro did not find a good reason for a stronger upward movement. Thus, to overcome the Murray level of "3/8" failed, to update the previous local maximum, too. Consequently, all technical factors were on the resumption of a downtrend. From a fundamental point of view, there is also no good news for the euro currency. The Brexit procedure continues to drag out despite progress in the negotiations between Theresa May and the European Commission. The EU leaders approved on Sunday at an emergency EU summit agreement on leaving the UK from the block. Even Spain approved. However, further we are waiting for a vote in the parliament of Great Britain, and in the European Union, the European Parliament and the parliaments of all EU member states should give their consent to this. The greatest number of concerns is the British Parliament, which may not accept Theresa May's bill. Today, of the significant fundamental events can be noted only the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi, who can touch on the topics of Brexit and monetary policy. No important macroeconomic reports are scheduled for today.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1353

R2 - 1.1414

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Thus, short positions with the target of 1.1292 are relevant now. The reversal of the Heikin-Ashi indicator to the top will signal a coil of upward correction.

Buy positions are recommended to be considered only after re-fixing the pair above the moving average line with the targets of 1.1414 and 1.1475. Although the chances of a change in market sentiment with the current fundamental background are not very many.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly review for the GBP / USD currency pair from November 26 to November 30, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

This week, the price will move up with the first goal of 1.3023 - 21 average EMA (black thin line).

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Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Monthly schedule - up.

The conclusion of the complex analysis - upward movement.

The total result of calculating the GBP / USD currency pair candlestick on a weekly schedule: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the presence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candle (Monday is work down) and the second upper shadow (Friday is work down).

The first upper target is 1.3023 - 21 middle EMA (black thin line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The slowdown in the global economy supports the dollar

The data on business activity indices in the Eurozone, Germany and the United States, released on Friday, point to pronounced signs of slowing economic growth. This has already given rise to investors' opinion that the ECB may never decide to start the process of raising interest rates next year, and the Fed will make the first pause in the last year's increase in interest rates.

According to the presented data, the German manufacturing activity index (PMI) in November fell to 51.6 points against 52.2 points a month earlier. In this case, the expected growth rate to 52.3 points. The business activity index in the services sector dropped to 53.3 points from 54.7 points, while the forecast of a decline to 54.6 points. The same indicators for the eurozone showed the following dynamics, the PMI in the manufacturing sector fell to 51.5 points from 52.0 points while expectations of a sustained growth rate of 52.0 points, the business activity index in the services sector fell to 53.1 points against 53.7 points.

In the wake of this data, the single currency came under pressure against major currencies and the US dollar.

The data of the same indicators, but only for the United States, did not put pressure on the dollar, although they also came out weaker than forecasts. The business activity index in the manufacturing sector (PMI) in November fell to 55.4 points from 55.7 points against the forecast of an increase to 55.8 points. The business activity index in the services sector dropped to 54.4 points from 54.8 points against the expected increase to 55.0 points.

The question arises, why did the dollar rise against major currencies? In our opinion, the function of the dollar as a safe-haven currency played an important role against the background of slowing economic growth in Europe and the United States, as well as the risk of continuing the US-Chinese trade war that still hangs over the markets and may still not be solved at the summit G20 in Argentina, which will be held later this week. Given this probability, we can assume that the dollar will continue to consolidate against major currencies by the end of the week.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR / USD currency pair is trading below the level of 1.1355, recovering in the wake of partial profit taking. The pair may continue to fall to 1.1265 if the data published today from Germany turns out to be weaker than forecasts, and a comment from M. Draghi will make it clear that the ECB, given the current situation, will not be in a hurry with the rate hike in the new year.

The USD / JPY currency pair is trading below the mark of 113.30, generally remaining in the "outset". It can turn down and fall to 112.65 if it stays below 113.30 amid rising concerns among investors about the growth prospects of the global economy.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly review for the currency pair EUR / USD from November 26 to 30, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).When moving up, the first upper target is the recoiling level of 38.2% - 1.1446 (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).Comprehensive analysis:- Indicator analysis - up;- Fibonacci levels - down;- Volumes - down;- Candlestick analysis is neutral;- Trend analysis - up;- Bollinger lines - down;- Monthly schedule - up.Conclusion of the complex analysis - upward movement.The total result of the calculation of the EUR / USD currency pair candle on the weekly chart: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the presence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candle (Monday is down) and the absence of the second upper shadow (Friday is up).This week, the first upper target, a rolling level of 38.2% - 1.1446 (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com