Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for March 6, 2019

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155.

Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2920 then 1.2800 within the previous H4 bearish channel.

On February 15, significant bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.2800-1.2820 resulting in the current bullish breakout above the depicted H4 bearish channel. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards 1.3155, 1.3240 and 1.3300.

Early signs of bearish reversal/retracement were demonstrated around the price level of 1.3317. Bearish pullback was expected to extend down towards 1.3150 and 1.3100 where the lower limit of the current Flag/channel pattern is located.

Bullish persistence above the newly-established depicted demand-level (1.3150) is mandatory to allow further bullish advancement.

Any bearish breakdown below 1.3150-1.3100 invalidates the short-term bullish scenario allowing a quick bearish movement to occur towards 1.3060 where the recent bullish breakout was initiated.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can consider the current bearish pullback around 1.3150 as a valid BUY entry. S/L to be located below 1.3090. T/P levels to be located around 1.3240 and 1.3317 initially.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: we sell on rumors, we buy on facts

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The EUR / USD pair, which recently held above the 1.13 mark, broke through an important support level and slipped to two-week lows.

It is noteworthy that this happened even despite the improvement in business activity in the eurozone and the increase in consumer spending in the region.

According to analysts, the main problem for the euro is that the European Central Bank (ECB) is still thinking about introducing additional incentives and increasing the supply of cheap money.

It is assumed that the regulator may postpone the increase in interest rates from a record low at least until the end of this year and in the near future will again begin to offer long-term loans to banks.

The next ECB meeting should be held tomorrow.

"The euro is now clearly selling on rumors of lower forecasts for eurozone GDP growth and inflation, as well as a possible launch of LTRO. However, if the regulator starts worrying more about rates than about the state of the European economy, then EUR / USD will begin to buy on facts already during the next press conference of the ECB Head Mario Draghi," experts say.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. Overview of NZD / USD for the week of March 6

Large TF:

The vector of the main movement of the kiwi major since October of last year is given by a bullish wave. The first 2 parts are completely formed in the wave structure. With the beginning of the new year, the final part (C) started.

Small TF:

The analysis of the structure of the rising wave from January 3 shows the completeness of the first parts of the wave zigzag. From February 12, preparations are underway for the final price spurt.

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Forecast and recommendations:

The price of the pair moves in the side price corridor, in which it will stay at least until the end of the upcoming weekly period. There are no conditions for sale. In the area of calculated support, it is recommended to track signals to search for entry into long positions.

Resistance zones:

- 0.6890 / 0.6940

Support areas:

- 0.6720 / 0.6670

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: plan for the American session on March 6. The pound continues to build the channel

To open long positions on GBP / USD you need:

The situation in the pound did not change compared with the morning forecast. The side channel continues to form, and long positions are best viewed under the condition of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.3109-1.3100. Otherwise, you can buy GBP / USD for a rebound from a minimum of 1.3049. The main task of the bulls will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the upper boundary of the side channel in the area of 1.3179, which will lead to a larger upward correction to the maximum of 1.3248, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

Sellers have the opposite task. False breakdown around 1.3180 will be a signal to open short positions, but the main task will be fixing under the lower border of the side channel in the area of 1.3109, which will lead to a larger sale with updating the minimums of 1.3049 and 1.2973, where I recommend fixing the profit. With the growth scenario above the resistance of 1.3179, short positions can be safely opened from the high of 1.3248.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted below the 30-day and 50-medium moving, which keeps the market on the side of sellers.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility is very low, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. March 6. The trading system. "Regression Channels". On the eve of the ECB meeting, the European currency falls

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -141.4935

The EUR / USD currency pair on Wednesday, March 6, continues its downward movement, but has reached the level of Murray "1/8" - 1.1292 and cannot pass it yet. It should be noted that the current price values are already minimal for a pair over a long period of time. To date, the pair tried to overcome the area of 1.1250 - 1.1290 at least 5 times, and each last rebound was less than the previous one. Thus, we are still inclined to think that the pair will manage to overcome this area, which will mean a new sentence for the euro. There is little hope that tomorrow the ECB will please investors with something. At best, statements at press conferences will be neutral. If the Central Bank hints at the possible prolongation of stimulating the economy or launching a new phase, this will further push the euro position. For today in the European Union, no important macroeconomic publications are planned. Today, the States will report on changes in the level of employment in the private sector from ADP. This is a fairly important report and a strong real value will support the US currency. From a technical point of view, the downward trend continues. There are no signs of an upward correction now, as the Heikin Ashi indicator is pointing down.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1353

R2 - 1.1414

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair continues its downward movement. Therefore, it is now recommended to continue to trade short positions with a goal of about 1.1250. If the pair fails to overcome the level of 1.1292 or Heikin Ashi turns up, it will be a signal for correction.

Once again, the buy positions can be viewed after the bulls are fixed above the moving average line. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to ascending again, and the first target for the long positions will be 1.1414.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. March 6. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Scotland and Wales against the current Brexit agreement

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -117.9127

The GBP / USD currency pair has overcome the moving, but cannot yet develop the downward movement. Nevertheless, the continuation of the downward movement is now seen as the most likely option. Meanwhile, the Scottish and Wales parliaments opposed the current agreement between Britain and the EU. Such synchronization in the actions of parliaments clearly shows the attitude of these countries to Theresa May's policies, the current government. At the same time, the moment is approaching when the parliament will have to vote for the current version of the agreement with the EU, for the "hard" version of Brexit and for postponement of the withdrawal from the European Union. These ballots should take place on March 12, 13, 14. Thus, less than a week remains until the next Day X. "Next", because there were already several moments when the fate of Great Britain had to be resolved and disappear, and everything remained in its original position. Thus, in a week, the parliament can simply vote for the Brexit transfer and block the first two votes. Both the pound and the UK will remain in limbo for at least another 2 months. From a technical point of view, we expect the pair to continue to decline, as there is still no fundamental support from the pound sterling.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3123

S2 - 1.3062

S3 - 1.3000

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3184

R2 - 1.3245

R3 - 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD began to move down. Thus, today, short positions are recommended with targets at Murray levels of 1.3123 and 1.3062. The downward trend persists in the instrument.

Buy positions are recommended to be opened in case of traders fix the pair back above the moving. In this case, the targets for long positions will be the levels of 1.3245 and 1.3306.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. Overview of EUR / CHF for the week of March 6

Large TF:

Since last fall, an upward wave model has evolved on the cross chart, which most resembles a correctional plane. The zigzag (A + B + C) is tracked in the wave structure.

Small TF:

From January 3, the cross price forms a bullish wave. The wave has a flat character. Last month, the quotes moved mostly sideways, forming a corrective phase of the movement. The wave structure looks complete.

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Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming week period, you can wait for the completion of the price calm and the beginning of the price growth. The ascending section of March 4 has a high potential and can give rise to a reversal pattern. It is recommended to track buy signals.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1490 / 1.1540

Support areas:

- 1.1340 / 1.1290

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD: the prospect of an upward correction of the euro remains very high

In the first half of the day on Tuesday, the euro managed to hold on to its positions against the background of good fundamental statistics for the eurozone. After the release of similar reports on the American economy, the pressure on the pair resumed, which led to the update minimums.

According to the data, sales in the US primary housing market rose last December. As indicated in the report of the US Department of Commerce, sales in the primary housing market rose by 3.7% compared with the previous month, to 621,000 homes per year. Economists had expected sales of 605,000 homes per year.

Good support for the US dollar was provided by data on activity in the US service sector, which grew quite strongly against the background of the growth of new and export orders.

According to the report of the Institute for Supply Management ISM, the activity index in the service sector rose to 56 points in February of this year from 54.2 points in January. Favorable economic conditions contributed to the growth of new orders in February.

The report of the Institute for Supply Management also stated that the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the non-manufacturing sector of the United States in February rose to 59.7 points from 56.7 points in January, while economists had expected the index to grow to 57.2 points. Let me remind you that values above 50 points indicate an increase in activity.

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It also became known yesterday that the US budget deficit has increased in the first four months of the current fiscal year. This happened because of tax reform, which led to a reduction in revenues and an increase in federal government spending.

According to the US Department of the Treasury, the budget deficit in the period from October 2018 to January 2019 was $ 310 billion compared to $ 176 billion in the same period last year. The increase was 77%.

Yesterday, a number of speeches by representatives of the Federal Reserve System also took place.

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said yesterday that right now the pause in the Fed's rate hike cycle is justified and it may take several meetings of the Open Market Committee before the picture becomes clear. He also believes that it is not yet clear whether the weakness passed from the end of 2018 to 2019, but the risks of overheating of the economy have decreased and the Fed has the opportunity to be patient with monetary policy. The representative of the Fed expects fairly healthy growth in GDP this year, at 2%.

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, in his interview said that it was necessary to carefully monitor corporate bonds for difficulties since problems in the area of corporate borrowing can cause problems in the economy as a whole.

In general, with regard to the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, despite yesterday's wave of decline, the prospect of upward correction maturing remains very high. To do this, buyers of risky assets need to return to the resistance level of 1.1310, which will be the first signal to open long positions based on further growth to the highs of 1.1340 and 1.1370. In case of further decline, support will be provided by area 1.1255 and 1.1230.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the European session on March 6. Excellent ISM index returns US dollar to advantage

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Euro buyers only temporarily stopped a downtrend yesterday and good US data led to a further fall in EUR/USD pair. At the moment, the main task of the bulls is to return to the resistance level of 1.1310, fixing on which can lead to an upward correction in the area of 1.1337, where I recommend fixing the profit. Given that no fundamental statistics for the Eurozone are expected today, it is likely that pressure on the euro will continue. In this scenario, it is best to expect to open long positions on the rebound from the support of 1.1279 and 1.1257.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Despite the fact that the downward trend in the euro gradually slows down while trading is below 1.1310, the pressure on the pair will continue. Moreover, an unsuccessful consolidation at this level in the first half of the day will be a direct signal for the further sale of the euro in order to update the support of 1.1279 and 1.1257, where I recommend taking profits. In case of growth above 1.1310, you can count on short positions immediately on the rebound from the resistance of 1.1337.

More details about the forecast can be found in the video review.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the advantage of euro sellers.

Bollinger bands

In case of further decline, support will be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the region of 1.1279. In the case of an upward correction, you can sell the euro on the rebound from the upper boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1330.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brexit negotiations between EU and UK ended without agreement again

Yesterday's negotiations between representatives of the United Kingdom and the European Union did not again lead to a trade agreement. On the eve of the British Prime Minister Theresa May sent the Attorney General of England and Wales, Jeffrey Cox, to Brussels in order to make changes to the Brexit deal, which are necessary for the passage of the agreement through the British Parliament. +

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Theresa May intends to change the "insurance plan", which should guarantee a transparent border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. As you know, the question of the border causes discontent of many British parliamentarians.

However, negotiations with the participation of Cox, which lasted more than three hours, did not bring the desired result. Negotiations involving lower-ranking officials will continue today. Recall on March 29, the UK must leave the EU, regardless of whether an agreement is reached on a trade deal or not. In the absence of an agreement, the UK economy may suffer great damage.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar triumphs: When will the feast end?

The dollar maintains good demand and is growing against its main competitors for the fifth session in a row. The euro is under pressure in anticipation of the ECB meeting. Its volatility is increasing as it is expected that on Thursday Draghi will announce the postpone of the first rate hike as it is expected that Draghi will announce on Thursday to postpone the first rate increase for many years to a later date.

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Meanwhile, the dollar index against a basket of six currencies rose to a two-week high. Dollar traders managed to overcome the resistance at the level of 96.75 but the activity of buyers is moderate. This means that a rollback to the previous minimum of 96.70 may be accompanied by an increase in the activity of sellers. The bullish forecast takes into account a further rise to 97.05.

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On Wednesday, market participants will focus on the data on the trade balance of goods and services in the United States. It is expected that the deficit in December amounted to $ 57.9 billion. In addition, the Fed's Beige Book will be made public and a statement by the regulator John Williams will take place. However, the saturation of the news background from America and the eurozone today will be weak. It is probably not worth waiting for the emergence of powerful price movements.

Note that on the four-hour chart, the EUR/USD currency pair is being traded within the downward channel. Now the lines are in a position favorable for sales, however, soon they will reach the oversold zone. Therefore, the potential for reducing the pair may be limited.

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Interestingly, there will be a reduction potential in the EUR/JPY pair after the ECB meeting on Thursday. That is if the rally in the global stock market and risky assets, in general, has come to an end and the European regulator will firmly stop at the "dovish" position. The recent reversal was the first step for traders who play short but the further perspective remains dim. A confirmation of the depreciation could be a move below 126.00 after the ECB meeting.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the US session on March 6. Traders took a pause amid lack of statistics

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

In the morning, trading was conducted on the side channel, which leaves the technical picture unchanged. The main task for the bulls is to return to the resistance of 1.1310, fixing on which can lead to an upward correction in the area of 1.1337, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the afternoon, a report on the US labor market is expected, which could lead to a decrease in EUR / USD. In this scenario, it is best to expect to open long positions on the rebound from the support of 1.1279 and 1.1257.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Despite the fact that the downward trend in the euro is gradually slowing down while trading is below 1.1310, the pressure on the pair will continue and an unsuccessful consolidation at this level in the afternoon will be a direct signal for the further sale of the euro in order to update support 1.1279 and 1.1257, where I recommend take profits. In the case of growth above 1.1310, you can count on short positions immediately on the rebound from the resistance of 1.1337.

More in the video forecast for March 6

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade remains below the 30- and 50-medium moving, indicating a bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is very low, which does not give signals for entering the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD / CAD: Loonie Pending BoC Decision and Report on Canadian Labor Market

One of the key events for the euro this week will be today's meeting of the Bank of Canada.

According to the latest data, the country's GDP expanded by 0.1% against a rise of 0.5% in the earlier quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018. The value of the indicator was the lowest since the second quarter of 2016. At the same time, consumer price growth slowed to its lowest level in more than a year.

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According to experts, all of these give the Canadian Central Bank food for thought and an excuse to take a wait-and-see stance in the matter of tightening monetary policy.

The derivatives market now estimates the likelihood of an overnight rate increase by the middle of this year to be only 16%, which puts a stick in the wheels of the "bears", who do not find support in the oil market either.

Despite the decrease in OPEC's black gold production in February and progress in the Washington-Beijing trade negotiations, growth in raw material production in the United States and oil reserves in the country over five of the last six weeks are currently putting pressure on quotations.

If we take into account the disappointing statistics on Canadian GDP and the steady growth of the same indicator in the United States, it becomes clear why the USD/CAD bears lost all dividends received from more than 20% oil rally since the beginning of the year.

Meanwhile, Scotiabank experts believe that the slowdown in the Canadian economy is a temporary phenomenon that can only increase the likelihood of the use of fiscal stimulus by the government. At the same time, the fading effect of tax reform, as well as, the negative impact of greenback strengthening on exports and weak external demand paint a rather pessimistic picture for US GDP. Based on this, it can be assumed that the USD/CAD pair will continue to consolidate in the region of 1.31-1.35 in the medium-term horizon.

As for the short-term outlook for this week, besides the BoC meeting, it makes sense to pay attention to statistics on the American and Canadian labor markets for February, which will be released on March 8. It is expected that weak data on the United States against the background of improved indicators in the Country of the maple leaf will allow selling USD/CAD on growth.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for March 06, 2019

BTC has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $3.873.

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According to the H1 time – frame, we found that there is a potential end of the complex upward correction WXZ at the price of $3.870. Also, there is multi resistance around $3.870 (yellow rectangle), which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. We also found hidden bearish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. The key support is seen at the price of $3.635.

Trading recommendation: We are bearish on BTC from $3.823 with the target at $3.636.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 06, 2019

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Overview: The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio, which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. On the other hand, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for March 06, 2019

Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1.285.83. Accumulation phase is potentially in progress.

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According to the H1 time – frame, we found that market is trading in a defined trading range with the resistance at $1.290.00 and support at $1.282.00. After the period of a downward movement, Gold started the basing process (accumulation), which may result in the upward movement and a rally on Gold. The successful breakout of the $1.290.00 would confirm a further upward movement and a potential test of $1.296.80 and $1.311.48.

Trading recommendation: We are neutral on Gold now but we will watch for buying opportunities if we see the breakout or $1.290.00, with the target at $1.296.8-$1.311.48.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 06, 2019

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Overview: The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the level of 0.7046 which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. Hence, the major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards the first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: plan for the European session on March 6. Time for a side channel

To open long positions on GBP / USD you need:

Yesterday's data on the services sector were ignored by the market, which led to a further decline in the pound. At the moment, a side channel is being formed, and long positions are best viewed under the condition of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.3109 - 1.3100. Otherwise, you can buy GBP / USD for a rebound from a minimum of 1.3049. The main task of the bulls will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the upper boundary of the side channel in the area of 1.3179, which will lead to a larger upward correction to the maximum of 1.3248, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

Sellers have the opposite task. False breakdown around 1.3180 will be a signal to open short positions, but the main task will be fixing under the lower border of the side channel in the area of 1.3109, which will lead to a larger sale with updating the minimums of 1.3049 and 1.2973, where I recommend fixing the profit. With the growth scenario above the resistance of 1.3179, short positions can be safely opened from the high of 1.3248.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted below the 30-day and 50-day moving, indicating a downward correction.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3109 will lead to a new wave of pound decline. Growth will be limited to the upper boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.3180.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for March 06, 2019

EUR/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2918, but the selling climax appeared.

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According to the H1 time frame, we found a selling climax (unusually wide range bar) in the background, which is a sign that there were panic sellers and a lot of emotional sellers. The market doesn't like panic activities and that is the reason why we expect a rally for the EUR/USD pair. Key intraday resistance is set at 1.1311. The breakout of the 1.1311 level would confirm a potential test of 1.1338 and 1.1380.

Trading recommendation: We are waiting for a potential breakout of 1.1311 to open a long position with the target at 1.1338 and 1.1380. Protective stop can be placed at 1.1285.

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Markets are scared by the prospect of a recession in the US

The ambiguous economic data from the United States released on Tuesday put pressure on local stock indexes. It seems that we have repeatedly pointed out earlier about the realization by investors that the American economy is showing signals of growth inhibition with the beginning is clearly manifested.

The presented values of the index of business activity in the services sector showed a decline in the indicator to 56.0 points from 56.2 points. But at the same time, the business activity index in the non-manufacturing sector grew noticeably to 59.7 points in February against the January value of 56.7 points. The December value of sales of new housing has also grown dramatically to 621,000 up from 599,000 in the previous period based on the review and the forecast of an increase to 600,000.

The question of why arises against such a positive background. Generally, the main US stock indices were in the red and the dollar received support. In our opinion, there may be such an explanation.

The remarkable growth of some economic indicators seems to be a residual from economic growth, which was strengthened by the tax reform undertaken by Donald Trump after taking office. The slowdown in global economic growth, which is currently observed, will definitely hit the US economy. That gap between the real state of affairs and the value of assets is unlikely to be compensated, since, on the one hand, the Fed still continues to squeeze liquidity and reduces its balance sheet, despite its promise to stop the process of raising interest rates. On the other hand, there are clear signs slowing the growth of the American economy but a high probability of plunging into a recession. This scares investors and makes them reduce the value of risky assets, which is on this wave of the US dollar and gets support.

In addition, the expectation of a denouement with Brexit and the first signals of the coming recession in Europe exert strong pressure on the euro. On this wave, the main currency pair has turned and went down but has shown investors the propensity to buy risk in the past decade.

Observing the overall picture, we can say that negative sentiment prevails in the markets now, which contribute to the growth in demand for defensive assets, including the US dollar.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading above the level of 1.1290, remaining under pressure against the background of the approaching Brexit and investors' withdrawal from risk due to fears of declining eurozone economy into recession. If the pair overcome this mark, it can continue its descend to 1.1250.

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The USD/JPY pair is consolidating in a narrow range, which was supported by the demand for defensive assets including the Japanese currency. If the pair holds above the level of 111.70 and rises above the level of 112.00, it will have growth potential to 112.45.

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Overview of the currency market on 03/06/2019

What happened yesterday did not lend itself a logical explanation at all, since the dollar strengthened despite the macroeconomic data published. Of course, everything seems fine at first glance because the American statistics came out much better than expected since sales of new homes did not fall by 8.7% instead of increasing by 3.7%. Also, the business activity index in the services sector increased from 54.2 to 56.0 and the composite index from 54.4 to 55.5. Indeed, preliminary data showed their growth to 56.2 and 55.8, respectively, which means that the business activity index turned out to be worse than expected. However, in Europe, the data were much better than predicted. In particular, the British index of business activity in the services sector rose from 50.1 to 51.3 while waiting for its decline to 49.9. The European index of business activity in the service sector increased from 51.2 to 52.8 and a composite index from 51.0 to 51.9 but waiting for their growth only to 52.3 and 51.4, respectively. Also, if you look at France and Germany, the picture is even better. Thus, the business activity index in the service sector in France rose from 47.8 to 50.2 and the composite index from 48.2 to 50.4. In Germany, the index of business activity in the service sector increased from 53.0 to 55.3, while the composite from 52.1 to 52.8. Even in Italy, the index of business activity in the services sector rose from 49.7 to 50.4, although the pace of economic growth in Italy remained at the same level of 0.0%. Only in Spain that the index of business activity in the services sector fell from 54.7 to 54.5 but this is only the fourth euro area economy. However, most importantly, the growth rate of retail sales in Europe accelerated from 0.3% to 2.2%. Against this background, all the other combined indicators fade.

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In an attempt to explain what happened with concerns about Brexit look pretty strange. It is true that the Labor Party declared its readiness to vote against secession from the European Union without an agreement, which naturally suits them first of all. Moreover, given that there is no such agreement, the likelihood of a very tough scenario of events is increasing, since the mechanism for Britain's exit from the European Union, which is in fact, already ongoing and it is unlikely to be stopped. It can only be slowed down and it is understandable that such news is purely negative for the pound and the single European currency, primarily due to the unpredictability of further developments but the news itself was recouped by the market on Monday; Even the reports of the readiness of China and the United States to sign a new trade agreement, which should end the trade war between the two largest economies in the world. This news was also taken into account by the market on Monday.

In a strange way, the active growth of the dollar began exactly at the moment when the data on sales of new homes came out. Of course, the data turned out to be quite good but they are dimmed against the background of European retail sales. At the time of publication, the market stood rooted to the spot. One gets the feeling that some players from among large investors were simply waiting for at least some formal reason for buying the dollar. Perhaps they know something about the upcoming meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank, which will be held tomorrow. Given the complete uncertainty, it is quite difficult to make any predictions. If large investors have already done everything they wanted, then the market will more adequately respond to statistics today, especially to ADP data on employment, which can show its growth by 189 thousand versus 213 thousand in the previous month.

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Thus, if something inadequate does not happen again, the single European currency will be able to strengthen to 1.1350.

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ECB March meeting: preview

The single currency meets the March meeting of the ECB in a depressed state. After several unsuccessful attempts of assault on the 14th figure, the eur / usd bulls eased their grip. They could not keep the price at conquered heights. The pair slowly but tendentiously moved towards the main support level of 1.1260. The rhetoric of the European regulator will determine the further price movement vector: the bears will either push this level or give the initiative to buyers, who will again lead the pair to local maximums.

In general, the euro / dollar is declining for two main reasons. Firstly, the strengthening of the dollar, which began to gain momentum after China, lowered its growth forecasts. Secondly, traders in advance play the "pigeon" rhetoric of the members of the European regulator. No one expects any optimistic notes from them, the only question is how soft their statements will be.

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According to the general forecast of experts, the March meeting of the European Central Bank will not be a "pass-through", so it will certainly cause a corresponding volatility in the markets. First of all, the ECB will reduce forecasts for GDP growth and inflation. This is a widely expected decision because as early as the beginning of February, the European Commission revised its forecast for GDP growth in the eurozone, significantly lowering its previous estimates. According to the EC economists, the key indicator in the current year will grow only by 1.3%, and next year - by 1.6%.

A little earlier, in January, a similar decision was announced in Germany, whose economy is the "locomotive" of the eurozone. Thus, the Ministry of Economy in this country reported that they are reducing their forecast for the growth of the national economy this year to 1%. This is a significant revision, as the Germans previously hoped to grow to 1.8%.

Inflationary dynamics also leaves much to be desired. According to the latest data, the consumer price index came out at the level of forecasts, having risen by one tenth of a percent compared to the previous month, that is, to 1.5%. However, core inflation, which is the most important indicator for the ECB, showed negative dynamics, dropping to one percent (contrary to expectations of growth to 1.1%).

Such trends can not be ignored by the European regulator, so a revision of the forecast estimates can be considered an already resolved issue. There is also a high probability that the ECB will finally postpone the interest rate increase for the next year. And although the market for the most part no longer feels illusions about earlier time points (a rate increase at the December meeting), this fact will still have some pressure on the euro.

By the way, recently, there have been rumors in the market that the ECB can go in a rather non-standard way- increase the rate on deposits to zero by one and a half years. According to the press, some members of the regulator recognize the fact that the side effect of negative rates negatively affects the economic growth of the eurozone, so such a step can remedy the situation - while the ECB's policy remains accommodative. But in my opinion, the probability of the implementation of this scenario is very unlikely, given the caution of Mario Draghi in their decisions.

But the likelihood of announcing a new round of the TLTRO program is quite high. This issue was discussed in December last year, but in January, the regulator decided to bypass this topic. However, judging by the rhetoric of Peter Prath and Benoit Kurrre, the Central Bank will announce tomorrow that it will launch long-term financing operations.

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The reaction of the euro / dollar pair for tomorrow's meeting depends on how much the results deviate from most forecasts. For example, if, contrary to expectations, the regulator does not rush things relative to the start of a new round of TLTRO, then the single currency will get quite strong support. The fact of transferring the approximate time limit for the next year's rate increase will not surprise traders. Moreover, this decision has already been largely taken into account in prices. Also, the regulator may be less categorical regarding the assessment of external risks. The likelihood of a "tough" Brexit declined, and the US-China talks reached the final stage. According to preliminary information, Beijing and Washington may conclude a bargain on March 27th.

In my opinion, the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, will traditionally try to maintain a balance in his statements, so as not to provoke panic in the markets. At the same time, he must also demonstrate his readiness to resist a slowdown in economic growth in the eurozone, voicing the appropriate signals. If the head of the ECB strengthens the "pigeon" rhetoric, the eur/usd pair will consolidate below the support level of 1.1260 and will head towards the 11th figure. If you deviate from the predicted scenario, the bulls of the pair will be able to test the boundaries of the 14th figure again.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. Overview of GBP / USD for the week of March 6

Large TF:

The general direction of the price movement of the pair from the spring of the past is set by a bearish wave. In its framework, in recent months, a correctional wave has been formed, which indicates a general incompleteness of the structure.

Small TF:

Since December 12, the wave model has been developing towards the main trend. In its structure, a clear zigzag can be traced. From the oncoming zone of resistance, a bearish wave of small scale began to develop in the last week, which could potentially become a reversal structure.

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Forecast and recommendations:

In the near weekly period, the price of the pound will move in a narrow flat corridor. There is a high probability that the current wave will be completed soon and the short-term trend will turn. Prior to the emergence of clear signals on the chart, trading in the pair market is not recommended.

Resistance zones:

- 1.3320 / 1.3370

Support areas:

- 1.3120 / 1.3070

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD on March 6. The pair is moving to the lows again

4h

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart fixed below the correctional level of 23.6% - 1.1358 and continues the process of falling in the direction of the level of 1.1269. There are no emerging divergences today. The rebound of the pair from the level of 1.1269 will work in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 23.6%. Closing the pair below the 1.1269 level will increase the likelihood of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 0.0% - 1.1218.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair returned to the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Rejection of quotes from this level of correction will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Fixing quotes under the correction level of 127.2% will increase the chances of the pair to further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out with the target of 1.1358 if the pair disconnects from the level of 1.1269, and the Stop Loss order is below this level.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out now with a target of 1.1269, and with a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1358, since the pair completed closing below the Fibo level of 23.6%.

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Analysis of the GBP / USD Divergences for March 6. Two rebounds restrain a new fall of the pound sterling

4h

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The GBP / USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a fall to the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.3094 and rebound from it with a reversal in favor of the British currency. As a result, on March 6, the growth of quotations can be continued in the direction of a correction level of 100.0% - 1.3300. Closing quotes below the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the chances of the pair to continue falling towards the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.2969. There are no emerging divergences today.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair rebounded from the correction level of 76.4% - 1.3111 and some growth. However, without any signal a little later, it turned in favor of the American dollar and began to return to the Fibo level of 76.4%. A new rebound from this level of correction will again allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the pound and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.3217. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of continuing the fall in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.3047.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from January 25, 2019, and February 14, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be made with a target of 1.3217 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 76.4% if the pair performs a new rebound from the level of 1.3111 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.3047 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 76.4% if the pair closes below the level of 1.3111 (hourly chart).

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for March 6. Pound sterling is waiting for a vote on Brexit

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On March 5, the GBP / USD pair did not lose a single bp, although it lost about 70 bp from the opening level during the day. However, the whole wave pattern still looks like the end of the uptrend trend and the transition to the construction of a downward trend. If this is indeed the case, the decrease in quotations will continue with targets located at about 38.2% and 50.0% on the older Fibonacci grid. The news background for the pound sterling remains unfavorable, although there have been no new negative news in recent days. A week later, several votes will be held in parliament. After which, it will become clear what the UK is facing in the coming months: Brexit or new negotiations with the EU.

Shopping goals:

1.3348 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.001 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.2891 - 50.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still assumes the construction of a downward set of waves. Therefore, sales are now expedient with targets at 1.00100 and 1.2891, which equates to 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci and a protective order above 1.3340. Larger sales are recommended when receiving negative news for the pound and with the development of a downward trend.

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Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (March 6)

The euro/dollar currency pair for the last trading day showed low volatility of 51 points, but this is enough to continue forming a downward move. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quotation is kept on the side of the bears, where it reached the lower limit of the 1.1300 / 1.1320 range without too much difficulty. As a result, a stagnation is formed. Information and news was quite interesting in Europe. An important indicator was published. The volume of retail sales grew from 0.3% to 2.2%. This news, after all, had to react positively to the euro, but the result was a banal stagnation. In the second half of the day, data on new home sales in the United States is released, where they initially had a forecast of decline from 658K to 600K; however, as a result, the previous figure was revised and received an increase from 599K to 621K. The same news at the time won back on the side of the market which strengthened the dollar. In return, we have reached the value of 1.1300. The absurdity lies in the fact that all experts were inclined to think that such positive data for Europe should have stimulated the growth of the euro, but this did not happen.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on the States regarding the change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector from ADP in February, where they expect a decline from 213K to 189K.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see how the quotation forms a clear deceleration at the level of 1.1300, which underestimates low volatility. It is likely to assume a small expansion of the amplitude of the current oscillation of 1.1290 / 1.1315, but then we are waiting for the breakdown of the boundaries. Among experts, a logical rebound from this level is extremely being discussed. However, there is no need to hurry because we still have short positions in the market.

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Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

- Consider buy positions in case of leveling and fixing higher than 1.1320.

- Positions for sale are considered after fixing the price lower than 1.1280.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short term, an upward interest is shown. But due to the fact that there is now a stagnation, the indicators might change. Intraday and mid-term perspective changed interest to descending.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 6 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 17 points. It is likely to assume that if the stagnation stops and we see a breakdown of one or another border, the volatility might increase as a result of the average daily rate. Otherwise, volatility will remain low.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1300 **; 1.1214 **; 1.1120; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for March 6. The market is waiting for the ECB meeting and its results

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Wave counting analysis:

On Tuesday, March 4, trading ended for EUR / USD by another 30 bp decline. Thus, the construction of the estimated wave 5 of the downward trend section continues with minimal targets, located about 12 figures. The upward wave option remains in reserve, if the current wave changes to wave b of the new uptrend trend. However, there is no reason to consider as this choice as the main option. The news background for the pair remains neutral. Tomorrow, the market will know if there are any changes in the ECB's monetary policy, or whether it intends to go in the near future. This information can greatly affect the trading of the instrument.

Sales targets:

1.1233 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.1184 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1419 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build the estimated wave 5. Thus, I still recommend selling the pair based on the construction of the downward wave 5 with targets located near the level of 1.1233, which corresponds to 100.0% Fibonacci, and a protective order above the maximum of 28 February. The protective order might go down as the instrument continues to decline.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for March 6, 2019

AUD lost significant momentum against USD today due to a downbeat GDP report and a sharp decline in the housing market. The downbeat data pushed the price below 0.7050 under strong bearish pressure.

The Australian economy contracted sharply. The Reserve Bank of Australia left the official cash rate unchanged at a historical low of 1.75%. The housing market took a downturn which was once booming. The domestic property market is facing troubled time following 27 years of recession-free expansion. According to Governor Philip Lowe, the labor market has become the most important criterion for RBA's monetary policy assessment and further tightening of the labor market cold promote gradual improvement in wages and income.

Today Australian GDP report was published with a decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to rise to 0.5%. The weak data capped AUD gains.

On the USD side, the US economy is currently quite healthy despite the ongoing trade conflict with China. In January, Fed officials confirmed the intention to pause in the cycle of monetary tigthening. This is viewed as a measure to support the growing economy. Thus, USD gained significant momentum. Recently FED Official Kashkari stated that the US labor market still has some improvements to be done along like an increase in wages. Ahead of NFP reports to be published on Friday this week, USD is expected to trade with higher volatility as the expectations are quite mixed. Today US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 190k from the previous figure of 213k and Trade Balance is also expected to decrease to -57.8B from the previous figure of -49.3B.

Meanwhile, the decline in economic growth and the housing market spoiled the market sentiment on the Australian economy. This is expected to lead to further weakness on the AUD side in the coming days. Any positive data from the US later this week is likely to encourage impulsive gains on the USD side in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading below 0.7050 area which is also the neckline of the recently formed Head and Shoulders pattern. Currently the price is expected to pull back towards 0.7050 again before pushing below 0.70 and further lower with a target towards 0.6850 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.7000-50 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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Dollar strengthens the position

The dollar looks confident with pending publication of a key February employment report on Friday. Despite the fact that the February indexes from Markit turned out to be somewhat worse than expected, its growth compared to January still should be recognized as strong. In the services sector, it moved from 54.2p to 56p while the composite from 54.4p to 55.5p. ISM in the services sector has grown spasmodically from 56.7p. to 59.7p, which suggests that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 will be less deep.

The IBD/TIPP index of economic optimism, which reflects consumer sentiment regarding the outlook for the economy, also rose significantly, to 55.7p after several months of decline. Today, the ADP report on employment in the private sector in February will be published. If the data turns out to be better than expected, the markets will most likely establish that the report on the labor market on Friday may turn out to be significantly more positive than forecasts, which will support the dollar in the short term.

A spoon of tar can add to the publication of the trade balance for December with the chance of improvement vanishingly small. In general, the dollar looks confident and it is ready to continue to grow against most competitors.

EUR / USD pair

Macroeconomic data published on Tuesday turned out to be quite positive but they could not help the euro to return to the growth trajectory.

The growth of retail sales in January amounted to 1.3% compared to the annualized rate of the figure rose to 2.2% in December, which is noticeably better when compared to the United States or the United Kingdom. The PMI index for the services sector in Germany rose to 55.3p in February against 53 a month earlier, exceeding the forecasts. On another report, the composite index rose to 52.8 p, which also turned out to be higher than the January 52.1 p and higher forecasts.

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Despite the fact that the latest data allows us to hope for a way out of the protracted recession of the eurozone economy, it is necessary to proceed for the time being from the fact that the ECB lowered the forecast of GDP for 2019 from 1.9% to 1.3%. At the January meeting, the ECB officials expressed their intention not to rush into a reaction to the changed economic conditions but to wait for more clarity. Markets suggested that a more than half-year slowdown would force the ECB to announce or at least hint at the possibilities of a new incentive program. However, the recent data show that the position of the regulator was chosen correctly, and perhaps, no reaction should be developed at all.

At the moment, the market expectations for the rate are clearly dovish. Predictions about the first rally "approximately in the summer of 2019" have long gone down in history, and now, the markets are waiting for a rate hike by 20p closer to the end of 2020. , the ECB may well lower the forecast for inflation at tomorrow's meeting and also announce another round of LTRO on GDP once again. You also need to keep in mind that in the month of May, there will be elections to the European Parliament and the result of which may be the loss of Draghi's mandate, which means that the ECB has no reason to take any actions that will have to be revised in the summer.

The euro in the current environment will be under pressure and more likely, it is due to the movement to the support level of the February low at 1.1233. The efforts of the bulls to stabilize the euro may end in resistance 1.1307, where sales will resume.

GBPUSD pair

The PMI in the services sector of the UK rose to 51.3p in February against 50.1p a month earlier instead of the expected decline, which supported the pound and allowed it to begin consolidation in the range of 1.3100 and 1.3180.

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The minutes of the Bank of England meeting published on Tuesday also played a positive role and somewhat calm the markets before the historic Brexit parliamentary vote. According to BoE, the UK banking system is quite ready for the economic turmoil associated with the country's withdrawal from the EU, and even without an agreement can stop everything emerging financial threats.

However, the pound remains under pressure amid the threat of a successful support test at 1.3095, followed by a move to the support area of 1.2950/70 which remains high. The probability of a corrective growth to the upper end of the range is low and the arguments of the bears on Wednesday look clearly stronger.

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Trading Plan 03/06/2019

The EURUSD is waiting for the ECB and is falling due to expectations - if the ECB again speaks of a new infusion of liquidity into the markets - the euro may break the lower limit of the long range at 1.1230 and start a big downward trend. The ECB meeting tomorrow on Thursday, March 7 - a decision at 11.45 London time, the press conference of the ECB President Draghi at 12.30 London time.

In addition, there are important news on the US economy on Wednesday: the February employment report from ADP at 12.15 London time - and the Fed's report on the state of the economy, the "Beige Book" at 18.00 London time.

We expect the euro to break below 1.1280 and move up to 1.1230.

The alternative is a turn upwards and after reaching 1.1360 - we are preparing to buy at a break of 1.1425.

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placing trade orders (March 6)

For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed close to the average daily 100 points. As a result, it continued to form a corrective movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a corrective movement after testing the range level of 1.3300, where the quotation on its way has already overcome a series of values of 1.3200 (periodic level) and the Fibo series 38.2 (long term) 38.2 (short term). Information and news background had statistics on business activity in the services sector in Britain, where they initially predicted a decline from 50.1 to 49.9, but as a result, it received 51.3. This news, even though positive for the English currency, we still saw stagnation on the trading chart. In the afternoon, we published data on sales of new housing in the United States, which is more interesting. Initially, forecast was a decline from 658K to 600K, but as a result, the previous figure was revised and received an increase from 599K to 621K. Naturally, in this news, we saw an increase on the trading schedule, although the ambiguity regarding the news background remains and other many questions remain. Returning to the information background, we see all sorts of sensation about Brexit again. This time, the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh National Assembly voted against the Brexit agreement between the government of the United Kingdom and Brussels. This is the first time they took a similar step at the same time. The voting was held on Tuesday, March 5th.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on the States regarding the change in the number of employment in the non-agricultural sector from ADP in February, where they expect a decline from 213K to 189K.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see how after declining to 1.3097, the quotation felt in front of itself a periodic pivot point, resulting in a rollback to the recently passed level of 1.3130 in connection with Fibo 38.2-short term. Possible bullish positions are already being actively discussed by traders, but, as we see in practice, bears are keeping the market and this is not going anywhere. Referring to the expected statistics for the US today, we can assume that there is a basis for a possible rebound, but at the same time, in the case of stable short positions, we can see just a stagnation of 1,3100 / 1.3180. Hence, the judgment is as follows: if we consider trading positions today, it is better to analyze beyond the limits of 1.3180 (Buy); 1.3095 (Sell). Operating within a range can be risky.

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Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators have chosen a certain neutral interest, possibly due to a stop within 1.3130 in the short term. On the other hand, intraday perspective maintains a downward interest on the background of the correction. Surprisingly, the medium-term outlook is on an upward mood, but it is already approaching a neutral one.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 6 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 51 points. In case of stagnation in the range of 1.30100 / 1.3180, the volatility will remain low, but in the case of the breakdown of the boundaries, we can see something interesting.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1,3200 *; 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3130 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Burning Forecast 03/06/2019

The signal for starting a downward movement in the euro is still in force. After breaking through the daily level of 1.1315, the EURUSD rate closed the day lower and is ready to move further down. The disadvantage for sellers is that while the movement is very weak - at least only 1.1289.

We expect a break of 1.1289 down and movement to 1.1230.

It is precisely at 1.1230 that the fate of the trend will be decided - if it is destined to happen. A close of the day below 1.1230 will be a strong signal for a downward trend.

We keep selling from 1.1315 - stop at 1.1360.

In case of an upward reversal, buy at a break of 1.1425 up.

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for March 6, 2019

EUR/USD is testing the 1.13 support level which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the last leg higher from 1.1235 to 1.1420. Failing to hold this support area will open the way for a move below 1.1235.

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Red line - major trend line resistance

Green line - support trend line

EUR/USD has turned lower as expected after getting rejected at our target area of 1.14-1.1430. EUR/USD is making lower lows and lower highs and has recently moved below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The RSI has still not reached oversold levels in the 4-hour chart. This downward move that started at 1.1420 still has room to go. We remain bearish as long as price is below the red trend line resistance as we have repeated many times before in our past analysis. Our downside target is at 1.12. Resistance is found at 1.1360-1.1380 area and next at the red trend line resistance at 1.1415. As long as we trade below these levels I remain bearish.

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