Fundamental analysis of GBP/JPY for November 9, 2018

GBPJPY has been quite impressive with the recent bullish gains which lead the price towards 149.00-150.00 area from where the price is being observed currently to push lower with certain bearish momentum. Despite GBP having mixed economic results recently, the sustainability indicates the amount of strength it had over JPY in the process.

Recently the UK Services PMI report was published with a decrease to 52.2 from the previous figure of 53.9 which was expected to be at 53.4, Halifax HPI increased to 0.7% from the previous value of -1.3% which was expected to be at 0.5% and RICS House Price Balance decreased to -10% which was expected to be unchanged at -2%. Today GDP report was published unchanged at 0.0% which was expected to increase to 0.1%, Manufacturing Production increased to 0.2% from the previous value of -0.2% which was expected to be at 0.1%, Prelim GDP also increased as expected to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.4% and Prelim Business Investment decreased to -1.2% from the previous value of -0.7% though it was expected to increase to 0.2%.

On the other hand, today JPY gained quite well today against GBP despite the recent worse outcome of the economic reports. Recently Japan's Bank Lending report was published with a decrease to 2.2% from the previous value of 2.3% which was expected to increase to 2.4%, Core Machinery Orders decreased significantly to -18.3% from the previous value of 6.8% which was expected to be at -9.5% and Current Account report decreased to 1.33T from the previous figure of 1.43T which was expected to increase to 1.36T. Today M2 Money Stock report was also published with decrease to 2.7% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.8%.

As of the current scenario, GBP having worse economic results today lead to certain bearish pressure in the pair whereas JPY having sentimental advantage despite the worse economic reports is expected to extend its gains for a certain period before GBP regains its momentum to push the price higher in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite impulsive with the bearish gains as it rejected off the 149.00-150.00 resistance area with a daily close. The price is expected to push towards 147.00 area before pushing up higher towards 150.00 area in the future. As the price remains above 145.00 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 145.00, 147.00

RESISTANCE: 149.00, 150.00

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 9, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On October 10, the recent bearish decline below 1.1520 found its way towards the price level of 1.1420 where temporary bullish pressure was pushing the EUR/USD pair above 1.1520. Hence, a descending high was established around 1.1600.

However, by the end of last week's consolidations, the recent bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.1307 leading to another bullish breakout above 1.1400.

This enhanced further advancement towards the price level of 1.1500 where the current bearish decline was initiated.

For the bearish side of the market to remain dominant, the EUR/USD pair should continue trading below the price level of 1.1400.

Initial bearish targets are located around 1.1275 and 1.1100 if sufficient bearish pressure is demonstrated below 1.1300.

For conservative traders, any bullish pullback towards the price level of 1.1400 should be considered for a valid SELL entry. S/L to be located above 1.1480.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 9, 2018

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On September 21, GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish within the depicted H4 bearish channel to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700. BUY entries were suggested around the lower limit of the depicted H4 channel (1.2700). Suggested BUY entries are running in profits now.

As for the bullish DAILY breakout scenario to remain valid, quick bullish breakout above 1.3000 (50% Fibo level) was achieved by the end of last week's consolidations.

This enhanced further advancement towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where the depicted downtrend came to meet the GBP/USD pair.

Yesterday, signs of bearish rejection were demonstrated around the price zone of 1.3170-1.3200 (the depicted downtrend). This initiated the current bearish pullback. Initial bearish target was already reached around 1.3000.

Currently, the price zone of (1.2980-1.3025) constitutes a prominent demand zone to be watched for price action for appropriate trading decisions.

On the other hand, bearish breakout below 1.2950 invalidates the bullish scenario, allowing a further decline towards 1.2830 (the next demand zone).

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should consider the current bearish pullback towards the price zone of 1.2980-1.3020 for a low-risk BUY entry.

T/P levels to be located around 1.3130 and 1.3200. S/L should be set as daily candlestick closure below 1.2950.

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EUR/USD pair: Italy's problems put pressure on the euro, and the dollar strengthened after the Fed statements

The European currency continued to decline against the US dollar, as many traders are concerned about the fact that the Italian government has not yet provided a draft budget with a target deficit that suits the European Commission. If the budget deficit for 2019 in Italy does not change, the pressure on the European currency will most likely continue. The mood of investors speaks for themselves since the yield of Italian government bonds is steadily approaching 4%.

The speech of the European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, also put pressure on the euro. Despite the fact that Draghi reiterated that the latest data points continued to a large-scale economic growth in the Eurozone and therefore, the purchase of assets under the quantitative easing program will end in December. It should be noted that the decision to raise interest rates was postponed to the end the summer of 2019.

As stated by Draghi, interest rates will remain at current levels until the end of the summer of 2019, whereas previously a rate increase was expected in early summer.

According to the President of the ECB, the high risks associated with protectionism, the instability of emerging markets and market volatility may have an impact on future decisions of the Central Bank.

Basic data

Yesterday, a report was released stating the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States decreased. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits declined by 1,000 to 214,000 from October 28 to November 3. Economists expected the number of initial claims to be 210,000, indicating a shortage of skilled workers.

Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve left short-term interest rates unchanged. As for the assessment of the economy, it was positive, indicating a high likelihood of further rate increases following the next meeting.

According to the data, the Fed left the range of interest rates on federal funds unchanged between 2.00% and 2.25%. This decision was made by the Fed's Open Market Operations Committee with a vote of 9 to 0.

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The Fed said that the growth of companies' investments slowed down after a rapid pace earlier this year, while the unemployment rate fell. Good indicators of economic activity, which show strong growth rates, will support the American economy, as well as good household spending, which will continue to grow. As for inflation, the Fed expects it to remain around 2% since inflation expectations have almost not changed.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD pair: plan for the European session on November 9. The fall of the pound will depend on GDP data

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Today, buyers will make every effort to stop the fall of the pound in the support area of 1.3020-1.3030 and the UK economic growth data is expected in the first half of the day will support the pair. The formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.3031 will be a signal to buy in order to reach the resistance of 1.3099, where taking profits are recommended. In the event of a further fall of the pound under the level of 1.3031 on weak economic data, it is best to open long positions to rebound from a minimum of 1.2966.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Breakout and consolidation below the support level of 1.3031, together with weak data on the UK economy, will be a direct signal to open short positions in the pound in order to reduce and update the minimum near 1.2966, where taking profits are recommended. In the case of a pound growth on the data, it is best to return to short positions on a rebound from a large resistance of 1.3099, where the 50-day moving average limiting upward potential also passes.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade management under the 30-and 50-day average, indicates a further decrease in the pound.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3020 will be a signal to sell a pound. In the case of growth of GBP / USD, the upward potential of the upper limit of the indicator in the region of 1.3125 will limit.

A break of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3020 will be a signal to sell a pound. In case the GBP / USD rises, the upward potential of the upper limit of the indicator in the region of 1.3125 will limit the movement.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Analysis of GBP/USD for November 09, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price reached my downward target at 1.3000. According to the H1 timeframe, I found that the price stopped at Fibonacci retracement 38.2% (1.3000), which is a sign that buyers were found. Anyway, the short-term trend is still bearish and my advice is to watch for the breakout of 1.3000 to confirm further downward continuation. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2950 and at the price of 1.2885.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. Review of EUR / JPY pair for the week of November 9

Wave pattern on the H4 chart:

The vector of price movement of the cross in the short term directs the rising wave formation of May 29. The structure lacks the final part.

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

The last wave of this scale started on September 21. In the older wave, it completes the corrective zigzag (B).

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Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

The price increase beginning October 26 will eventually move to a larger scale of movement. The closest reference level has been reached from which a downward pullback is likely in the coming days.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Reducing the price of the cross pair for a short time lessens the output for sales. It is recommended to track the signals of your vehicle to search for entry into long positions.

Resistance zones:

- 131.70 / 132.20

- 129.70 / 130.20

Support areas:

- 128.40 / 127.90

Explanations to the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the European session on November 9. Fed Decision Supports US Dollar

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Despite the fact that the Fed left rates unchanged, the US dollar is expected to rise against the euro as many traders predict a rate hike in December. As for euro purchases in the short term, it is suggested to be at 1.1338. Formation of a false breakdown on it will be a signal to open long positions based on a correction in the area of resistance 1.1369, where taking profits are recommended. In the event of a further decline in the euro with the trend, you can buy to rebound from the minimum of last month in the area of 1.1303.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Sellers need to form a false breakdown at the resistance level of 1.1369 and also to consolidate below the important support level of 1.1338, in case of euro growth there in the first half of the day. The breakthrough of this range will lead to a new wave of euro sales with the renewal of a minimum around 1.1303, where taking profits are recommended. If the euro rises above the resistance of 1.1369 in the first half of the day, sales can be returned to the rebound from 1.1402.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-day average which indicates the continuation of the fall of the euro. The 30-day average today will act as resistance.

Bollinger bands

If the euro rises in the first half of the day, the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator located in the area of 1.1381 will act as a resistance from where you can sell the euro immediately to rebound. Limit the downward correction to the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1320.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review of the GBP / USD pair on November 9, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the price will move downwards before the news with the first goal of 1.2992 and the rolling level of 38.2% (blue dashed line). The preliminary news shows an upward trend has a tendency to go up.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the price will move downwards before the news with the first goal of 1.2992 and the rolling level of 38.2% (blue dashed line). The preliminary news shows an upward trend has a tendency to go up.

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What the Fed said on November 8

Keeping the base interest rate in the target range of 2.00% -2.25%, the Federal Committee for the Open Market of the US Federal Reserve gave a comment on the state of the economy and monetary policy.

The Fed notes a vigorous growth in economic activity and a further improvement in the labor market situation due to the average growth in jobs in recent months and a decrease in unemployment.

Moreover, they noted that the period between commission meetings and household spending continued to increase significantly while the expansion of investments by business structures slowed compared with more forced rates earlier this year.

The Fed still assesses long-term inflation expectations as stable. At the same time, general inflation and core inflation calculated on a 12-month basis, not taking into account energy and food prices, remain close to 2%.

In accordance with its authority, the Fed is committed to promote maximum employment and price stability. They still expect a further gradual increase in the target interest rate range for federal funds to be conducted in line with a steady increase in economic activity, a stronger labor market and inflation close to the symmetrical 2% target level designated by the Fed in the medium term. Risks for economic prospects look quite balanced.

Taking into account the already achieved and expected parameters of the state of the labor market and inflation, the Fed decided to keep the target interest rate range for federal funds at 2.00% -2.25%.

In determining the timing and scale of the future regulation of the target interest rate range for federal funds, the Fed will be guided by both achieved and expected economic progress in relation to its goals of maximum employment and symmetric inflation at 2%. This approach will be based on a wide range of information, including parameters of labor market conditions, indicators of inflationary pressure and inflation expectations, financial and international events.

The current monetary policy framework was adopted unanimously by 9 members of the US Federal Reserve.

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Forecast for GBP / USD pair on November 9, 2018

GBP / USD pair

Against the background of yesterday's strengthening of the dollar, with USD index showing 0.47%, investors did not expect with hopes for good news on Brexit but bought a few dollars along with the market. The pound lost 64 points.

Today, the UK expects optimistic GDP data for the 3rd quarter, and this may prevent further decline. The forecast assumes an increase of 0.6% versus 0.4% earlier and the annual growth is expected from 1.2% to 1.5%. Technically, the price may linger on the support of the balance line at the level of 1.3028 on the four-hour chart. Furthermore, the price will meet the support of the MACD trend line for a daily in the area of 1.2975.

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Nevertheless, the pound is now constantly at risk of unexpected news regarding the Brexit talks, referring to the time of their announcement, and the expected being optimistic.

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Analysis of EUR./USD for November 09, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.1329 and its going forward my yesterday's target at 1.1303. According to the H4 time – frame I have found the successful breakout of the bearish flat and the support at the price of 1.1352, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1303.

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Technical analysis of gold for November 9, 2018

The strong Dollar is not good for gold as prices have broken below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Price is forming a bullish wedge and bulls continue to hope for a sharp reversal upwards as long as price is above the $1,212 lows.

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Magenta rectangle - support

Green lines - bullish wedge pattern

Red rectangle - resistance area

Gold price has broken the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This is not a bullish sign. Bulls' last line of defense is the support area around $1,212. Resistance is at $1,223-24. Breaking above this level will most probably push gold back towards $1,235-40. Only a break above $1,240 could push gold towards our 2nd longer-term target of $1,260. Breaking below $1,212 could push gold price even below $1,200 or even to new yearly lows. So breaking this low would make me change my bullish view.

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Trading plan for 09/11/2018

On Friday, the 9th of November, the event calendar is busy with important data releases. The event of the day is the UK GDP and Industrial Production data release. Moreover, there are other data to keep the eye on, like Industrial Production data from France and Germany, PPI and Core PPI data from the US together with the UoM Consumer Sentiment data release. There is a speech from FOMC Member Randal K. Quarles scheduled later in the day as well.

GBP/USD analysis for 09/11/2018:

The UK GDP data are expected to grow from 0.0% to 0.1% on a monthly basis and from 0.4% to 0.6% on a quarterly basis. On the other hand, Industrial Production is expected to decrease from 0.2% to -0.1%.

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus, better than expected GDP figures are generally bullish for the GBP, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the data are published. The market is now in a corrective cycle after reaching the level of 1.3175. The price has broken below the technical support at the level of 1.3041 and is heading towards the 38% Fibo retracement at the level of 1.2991 (so just below the round number of 1.3000). The momentum is below its fifty level, so the bears are getting stronger on its way down. If the 38% Fibo is violated, the next target is seen at the level of 1.2940 - 1.2920, which is a technical support zone.

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for November 9, 2018

In our previous posts we explained that the long-term trend in EUR/USD was bearish and that a short-term bounce towards 1.15-1.16 should come. Yesterday prices fell sharply after getting rejected at 1.15. Short-term trend has turned bearish again and a new low below 1.13 is not out of the question now. However the bullish divergence signs by the RSI give a warning to bears.

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Black dots - medium strength resistance

Red dots - maximum strength resistance

On a daily basis, the price never closed above the black dots resistance of 1.1470. Trend remains bearish as the price is still inside the downward sloping channel. Support is now at the October 31st low at 1.1302. The RSI (not shown above) is diverging despite the new lows. Price could make a new lower low towards 1.1280-1.1250 but I believe we are going to see another divergence again. This is a warning for bears not to be to confident of this down trend. However as long as price is closing on a daily basis below the black dots, bears remain in control of the trend.

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Global macro overview for 09/11/2018

On Wednesday it turned out that the election result in the US was in line with the pre-election polls, which may have come as a surprise because surveys have been wrong in many countries for a long time now. In the House of Representatives, the Democrats will have an advantage, and in the Senate, the Republicans have increased their lead. The elections to the Senate are not the great victories of the Republicans, because of the 51 Senatorial seats of the Republicans, 42 were not the subject of these elections (1/3 of the Senate was elected).

President Trump's impeachment cannot be worked out, but it will be much harder for the President to pursue his ideas. In addition, the House of Representatives will match the President's skin so as to weaken him before the elections in 2020.

Theoretically, markets should react with declines in such a result of the election (there will be, for example, no subsequent tax changes and disassembly of the health system), but as I already wrote, the Democratic House of Representatives may block "war" (the trade war with China) President Trump's in turn, they liked the markets very much. In addition, market players were hoping for an agreement between the Republicans and Democrats regarding moderate investment in infrastructure. It was also said that impeding Trump's insistence on reducing taxes would lead to a more lenient monetary policy by the Fed. This, in turn, would weaken the dollar, which helped exporters.

The response of global markets varied. Asia accepted the results of the elections quite skeptically, whereas in Europe, growing contracts for US indices helped in significant increases in indices. The question remained: what would the reaction of the Americans really be? They reacted enthusiastically, which may be a bit surprising because in fact such a result was already discounted earlier and did not change anything on the market of high technology companies (FAANG sector), which was recently so eagerly sold off. The S&P500 index gained 2.12% and returned above the average session value, while NASDAQ increased by 2.64% and violated this average. Apparently, global investors believe (perhaps rightly) that the ending of the bullish rally began.

Let's now take a look at the SPX technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is currently consolidating the recent gains and is trading in a narrow horizontal zone between the levels of 279.48 - 281.09. The trading conditions are now overbought, so a corrective pullback to the level of 277.07 would be welcomed. The momentum remains strong and positive, so there is still a chance for a further rally towards the level of 285.40.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for November 9, 2018 for the EUR / USD pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the downward trend is expected with the first goal - the support line 1.1300 (blue thin line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, a downward trend is expected with the first goal - the support line 1.1300 (blue thin line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 09/11/2018

The lack of a press conference on the agenda and the historically low significance of meetings in the last but one month of the year suggested that the Federal Reserve (FED) would not decide on any significant move. Markets, however, are counting on a rate hike in December, which triggered a strengthening of the dollar against the euro and the pound sterling.

"Information received since the meeting of the Federal Open Market Commission in September indicates that the labor market is still strengthening and that economic activity is growing at a rapid pace. Employment growth has been moderately strong in recent months and the unemployment rate has fallen. Household spending continued to grow strongly, while investment growth in fixed assets in enterprises declined rapidly at the beginning of the year. Within 12 months, both general inflation and inflation in the case of items other than food and energy remained at the level of nearly 2%. Indicators of long-term inflation expectations have not changed much," wrote the Fed in an official statement.

With regard to interest rates, the Fed maintains its current rhetoric suggesting that further interest rate hikes will be closely related to the persistent economic growth and economic activity, a strong labor market and maintaining price dynamics around the target level set by the bank. The risk for the economic outlook remains "more or less sustainable".

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame after the Fed decision is done. The strengthening of the USD is clear as the market has broken above the golden trend line resistance and is heading towards the technical resistance at the level of 96.87. The strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish bias. The nearest support is seen at the level of 96.68.

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Fundamental analysis of AUD/JPY for November 9, 2018

AUD/JPY has been quite impulsive with the recent bullish gains which lead the price above 82.00 area with a daily close in a non-volatile manner. AUD has been quite positive with the recent economic reports which helped the currency to gain and sustain momentum over JPY.

AUD has been the dominant currency in the pair since the price bounced off the 78.50 area a few weeks earlier. Recently AIG Services Index report was published with a decrease to 51.1 from the previous figure of 52.5, ANZ Job Advertisement increased to 0.2% from the previous negative value of -0.7% and Cash Rate remained unchanged at 1.50% as expected while RBA Statement was quite hawkish with the current economic stability. Today Home Loans report was published with an increase to -1.0% from the previous value of -2.2% which failed to meet the expectation of -0.9% and RBA Monetary Policy Statement published today was quite hawkish as well which is expected to lead to further growth in the future for AUD against JPY in the process.

On the JPY side, having certain financial volatility and complications, JPY gained certain momentum over AUD today despite the worse outcome of the economic report. Recently JPY Bank Lending report was published with a decrease to 2.2% from the previous value of 2.3% which was expected to increase to 2.4%, Core Machinery Orders decreased significantly to -18.3% from the previous value of 6.8% which was expected to be at -9.5% and Current Account report decreased to 1.33T from the previous figure of 1.43T which was expected to increase to 1.36T. Today M2 Money Stock report was also published with decrease to 2.7% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.8%.

As of the current scenario, JPY is still struggling with the worse economic reports whereas AUD maintained the positive momentum fundamentally which is expected to lead to further gains on the AUD side while certain corrections may be observed in the way in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite bearish after the recent bullish rejection yesterday which is expected to lead the price towards 81.50-82.00 support area before the price starts to push higher towards 83.50 area in the coming days. As the price remains above 80.50 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 80.50, 81.50, 82.00

RESISTANCE: 83.50, 85.00

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Bitcoin analysis for 09/11/2018

According to the published document, the Department of the Federal Revenue of Brazil (RFB), which manages the collection of taxes in the country, wants to receive monthly reports on cryptographic operations.

In the document, RFB announced that the cryptographic exchanges in Brazil are now obliged to send monthly detailed reports on all operations related to cryptography. For example, companies need to disclose transaction amounts and customer identities.

In addition, both legal entities and natural persons resident in Brazil are now required to report all transactions that they have carried out on foreign cryptocurrency exchanges if they exceed 10,000 Brazilian Reals ($ 2,700) per month.

The RFB project on cryptographic taxes also defines the scope of penalties for those who do not report their transactions. The citizens will have to pay 400 dollars for late filing of the tax declaration. Where the information provided is insufficient or false, the RFB may impose a fine of up to 3 percent of the value of the transaction.

Tax supervision has already opened public consultations to receive proposals for a new regulation: comments will be accepted from October 31 to November 19. In the explanatory note, the regulator states that such measures have been taken due to a significant increase in the crypto industry in the country. According to RFB, the number of cryptocurrency clients has already exceeded the number of users registered on B3 - the Brazilian stock exchange based in Sao Paulo. In turn, the daily number of transactions carried out by the five main Brazilian exchanges exceeds 8.3 million realities (about 2.2 million dollars).

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken below the golden trend line support and made a local low around the level of $6,350 which was just above the technical support at the level of $6,344. Currently, the market is hovering around the weekly pivot in neutral market conditions and neutral momentum. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $6,382.

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Fed Optimism "cooled" markets

Anxiety, yet again, has returned to world markets, which, on one hand, is due to the investors' awareness on the American parliament's midterm elections that may take effect on the restoration of the status quo regarding the political struggle between D. Trump and his opponents in the States. If carried out his campaign promises a little bit earlier, it could have led to more difficulties on the implementation, which in turn, will be able to impose an imprint on the prospects of the national economy.

Meanwhile, after Trump's message on social networks about his desire to make a sales proposal to Beijing at the summit in Buenos Aires to be held at the end of this month, some euphoria that manifested itself has declined given the market understanding that the Chinese will not like it and the "battle" on the margins of the trade war will continue with all the negative consequences for the global economy.

On the other hand, another important news sobering investors, which itself was not, was sent to the markets of the US Federal Reserve. Although it was expected that the November routine meeting of the regulator will not be able to present anything new, it still had a significant impact on the investor sentiment, which had shown once again the Central Bank's plan to persistently continue and systematically raise interest rates accordingly.

In our opinion, the above-mentioned factors turned out to be the primary cause of decline in the stock market on Thursday, including the resumption of the fall in crude oil prices and the growth of the US dollar. Given all of these conditions that are happening, the question now goes this way: Will this trend continue to uphold in the near future?

It seems to us that the potential for the continuation of local demand for risky assets may still last until the Central Bank meeting. However, the Fed's determination to continue normalizing monetary policy might minimally reduce this probability. Given this change in sentiment, it can be assumed that the dollar's limited growth might as well continue with all the ensuing consequences for the markets provided that the Fed clearly stated in yesterday's meeting that there will be an expected 0.25% increase in the December meeting, which amidst the resumption of growth yield treasuries and reduction on the regulator's balance will only strengthen its position.

Forecast of the day:

EUR / USD is trading above 1.1345, remaining under pressure due to the global strengthening of the US dollar position. Probably, the pair is possible to recover by 1.1370 through partial profit taking. We consider it necessary to sell it from this mark or after the price drops below the level of 1.1345 with the likely target of 1.1300.

AUD / USD pair is trading above the level of 0.7235 in the markets during the decrease in risk appetite in the markets. Overcoming the price of this level may lead to the continuation of its fall to 0.7190.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 9, 2018

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EUR/NZD is likely building a bottom near 1.6800 for a corrective rally towards at least 1.7225 and likely even closer to 1.7359.

In the short term, we need a break above minor resistance at 1.6912 to confirm that wave i/ or a/ has completed and a correction in wave ii/ or b/ is developing towards at least 1.7225 and as said possibly even closer to 1.7359.

R3: 1.7074

R2: 1.6997

R1: 1.6912

Pivot: 1.6858

S1: 1.6807

S2: 1.6784

S3: 1.6733

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR upon a break above 1.6912

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 9, 2018

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EUR/JPY peaked at 130.15, just below the ideal target at 130.20. Now we expect the resistance at 129.64 - 129.92 zone will cap the upside for renewed downside pressure towards 123.66 in wave C.

Only an unexpected break above 130.15 will revive wave B for a move closer to the 61.8% corrective target at 130.65 before completing wave B and setting the stage for wave C lower.

R3: 130.15

R2: 129.75

R1: 129.64

Pivot: 129.38

S1: 129.15

S2: 128.82

S3: 128.60

Trading recommendation:

We closed out the final 50% of our long position from 127.75 at 129.30. We will sell EUR at 129.50 and place our stop at 130.25.

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AUD/USD reversed off resistance, prepare for further drop

AUD/USD reversed off its resistance at 0.7295 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to drop further to its support at 0.7201(38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) reversed off its resistance at 97% where a corresponding drop is expected.

AUD/USD reversed off its resistance where we expect to see a further drop.

Sell below 0.7295. Stop loss at 0.7367. Take profit at 0.7201.

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EUR/USD approaching support, prepare for a bounce

EUR/USD is approaching its support at 1.1358 (100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 1.1406 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 3% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

EUR/USD is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 1.1358. Stop loss at 1.1326. Take profit at 1.1406.

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Analysis of BITCOIN for November 8, 2018

Bitcoin's struggle to keep above $6500 is getting more mainstream where a strong bearish pressure is being observed currently which pushed the price impulsively lower towards $6400 area while the dynamic level of 200 EMA also resides. The dynamic level of 200 EMA is currently working as support above $6400 area from where certain bullish pressure is expected but only as certain retrace. The bullish bias is currently in pause until the price breaks above $6500 area with a daily close. As the price remains below $6500 area, the bearish pressure and volatility is expected to persist in the process but the bias is still bullish as the price remains above $6000 area with a daily close.

SUPPORT: 6000, 6400

RESISTANCE: 6500, 7000, 7500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental analysis of USD/CHF for November 8, 2018

USD/CHF is currently quite volatile, corrective and indecisive while residing inside the range of 0.9980-1.0050 area with daily close. USD having better Employment reports recently managed to gain certain momentum over CHF but could not dominate it as expected in the process.

Ahead of the high impact event today including the FOMC Rate Statement and Federal Funds Rate which is expected to be unchanged at 2.25%, USD is pressurizing CHF quite impulsively which is expected to lead to certain momentum in the process. Ahead of the PPI report tomorrow which is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%, market sentiment is currently quite indecisive with the USD gains in the coming days.

On the CHF side, the increase in Foreign Currency Reserves to 753B from the previous figure of 740B and Unemployment Rate remaining unchanged at 2.5% ahead of Government Board Member Maechler's speech today provide the required optimism for the currency in the process. Though CHF has been dominated by USD for a certain period earlier but currently USD is struggling to maintain the impulsiveness in the process.

To sum up, USD having certain dominating pressure over CHF for the past few weeks may come to an end if the FOMC Rate Statement creates dovish vibe for the current market sentiment which will lead to counter bearish momentum for the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the range between 0.9980-1.0050 area from where a daily close below or above the range is expected to lead to upcoming price actions in the pair. Though there are certain chances of bearish counter which will be only confirmed after a daily close below 0.9980 is observed or else as per trend, a bullish breakout is expected to lead to further bullish momentum in the coming days. As the price remains above 0.9980 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.9850, 0.9980

RESISTANCE: 1.0050

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental analysis of USD/CAD for November 8, 2018

USD/CAD has been quite volatile and indecisive recently while residing above 1.2950-1.3050 area with a daily close. USD having better Employment reports failed to gain momentum over CAD's mixed fundamentals which does indicate the current market sentiment bias in the process.

This week CAD has been meeting expectations of the fundamental events whereas USD is still found struggling with certain mixed economic results. Recently Canada's Building Permits report was published with an increase to 0.4% from the previous value of -1.1% which was expected to be at 0.3% and Ivey PMI report was also published with an increase to 61.8 from the previous figure of 50.4 which was expected to be at 50.9. Bank of Canada's Governor Poloz said that Canada's economy is keeping its pace with the global pace of development whereas annual growth of 2 percent of growth over the next couple of years is expected while performing close to the capacity limits. Poloz was quite optimistic with the financial markets conditions where he thinks certain balance is needed to keep the stable growth going and if needed certain interest rate hikes may be also seen in the coming days but its not quite confirmed yet.

On the other hand, the US Congressional Election did not have much impact on the USD gains leading to further indecision in the process. Though the Employment reports were quite as per expectation while having significant increase in Employment Change with an unchanged Unemployment Rate is quite remarkable, but it failed to have an impact on the further gains as expected. Ahead of the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate report to be published today which is expected to be unchanged at 2.25%, Unemployment Claims report was published with decrease to 214k as expected from the previous figure of 215k and Natural Gas Storage was increased to 65B from the previous figure of 48B which was expected to be at 56B.

As of the current scenario, though the price is quite corrective with no definite momentum in the process but CAD having better results with optimistic approach for the upcoming decision played a vital role for attracting the market bias towards CAD while USD struggles. Though Employment reports were better on the USD side but having mixed results put a setback for the USD in the process against CAD.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite volatile and indecisive while having certain bullish rejections along the way above 1.2950-1.3050 support area in the process. As the price breaks below 1.2950 with a daily close, further bearish momentum is expected or else the price may counter impulsively to push it higher towards 1.3300-50 resistance area in the future. The price remaining above 1.2950 does indicate the bullish pressure is still quite strong in the process.

SUPPORT: 1.2950, 1.3050

RESISTANCE: 1.3300-50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis: Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, Nov 09, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as the French Industrial Production m/m. The US will also release some economic data such as the Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, Core PPI m/m, and PPI m/m. So, amid the reports EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:Breakout BUY Level: 1.1423.Strong Resistance:1.1415.Original Resistance: 1.1405.Inner Sell Area: 1.1394.Target Inner Area: 1.1367.Inner Buy Area: 1.1340.Original Support: 1.1329.Strong Support: 1.1318.Breakout SELL Level: 1.1311.Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: intraday levels for USD/JPY, Nov 09, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the M2 Money Stock y/y. At the same time, the US will also publish some economic data such as the Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, CorePPI m/m, PPI m/m. So there is a probability USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 114.51

Resistance. 2: 114.28

Resistance. 1: 114.06

Support. 1: 113.79

Support. 2: 113.56

Support. 3: 113.34

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Trading Plan 11/09/2018

The general picture: the Fed may continue to raise rates.

On Thursday, the main event of the week for the market took place - the Fed's decision.

The Fed left the rate unchanged, but the comment was pretty tough.Employment is rising, wages are rising, and probably inflation will follow. And in this case, the Fed will be forced to raise the rate or maybe it will not increase.

In such a situation of uncertainty, there is some reversal towards the dollar.

Pound: We are ready to buy a breakthrough of 1.3180 up.

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Forecast for EUR / USD for November 9, 2018

EUR / USD

In the first half of yesterday, the euro fell by 30 points under pressure from retail sales data. There is also another 30 points lost on Wednesday (0.0% in September) and a weak trade balance of Germany and France on Thursday (17.6 billion from Germany against the forecast of 18 2 billion and -5.7 billion euros from France). This is according to the release of the Fed statement on the results of the Euro session. The statement noted the acceleration of economic growth and employment rates.

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On the four-hour chart, the price was fixed under the lines of balance (red) and the trend Krusenstern. Now, looking on the daily and four-hour charts clearly pronounced downward trend. Congressional elections have passed, the hype has stopped, both parties welcome a strong dollar. The Republican - as an effect and an instrument of economic expansion and Democratic - as the best condition for expanding banking influence in the world. Next week, the Treasury is placing $ 84 billion in short-term debt (bills and bonds up to 1 year). And in a week, we are waiting for a new wave of placement of medium and long-term securities. So, we are waiting for the euro at the level of 1.1300. After fixing another round target, 1.1200 opens under it.

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EUR/GBP: the cross-pair follows the headlines

Today, dollar pairs are waiting for the verdict of the Federal Reserve, whose members will sum up the November meeting. Despite the certain predictability of this event, surprises are not excluded: the tone of the rhetoric of the accompanying statement may soften or, conversely, toughen. Since the last meeting, which took place in September, enough time has passed and a lot of events – both in favor of tightening the monetary policy of the Fed, and vice versa (in particular, we are talking about slowing inflation in September). Therefore, at the moment, trading dollar pairs looks risky, given the existing intrigue.

Among the cross pairs, the most interesting is the situation for the euro/pound pair. There are two main topics that form the agenda – Italy and Brexit. Depending on the information background, the preferences of traders also change, for example, from mid-October to early November, the eur/gbp showed growth, rising from 0.8725 to 0.8940. Having reached its peak, the pair collapsed by 250 points last week, being below the October level.

Macroeconomic statistics do not actually affect the dynamics of this pair – at least in the period of recent weeks. Cross pair follows newspaper headlines that almost daily change the general mood of traders. The beginning of November was marked by optimism about the prospects of Brexit. Information resources were full of headlines that Theresa May was able to negotiate with Brussels on a number of key issues (except for the Irish border), and this fact allegedly approximates the moment of concluding a long-awaited deal. The British press even marked the deadline for the negotiation process - November 21, after which the pound soared throughout the market. The euro/pound pair is no exception, especially since the single currency is forced to reckon with the problem of the Italian budget, which still does not have a resolution.

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However, optimism about Brexit gradually began to fade, and with it the growth momentum of the British currency. Without additional information, the pound could not continue its rally, especially as widespread rumors have not been confirmed. London actively refutes the information about the achievement of any agreements, adding that the negotiation process is in full swing. Disappointing signals also arrived in the market last night. So, according to one of the influential newspapers in Britain, Theresa May will ask Brussels for a delay in time, since she does not have time to coordinate her position with the members of the British government. Also it was reported that the next cabinet meeting will be held no earlier than the second half of next week. As a result, the enthusiasm of traders somewhat subsided, and the pound fell under the wave of selling.

The European currency took advantage of the situation and tried to win back the lost points in the EUR/GBP pair – the pair was able to return to the 87th figure. An additional reason for the corrective pullback was the words of Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, who today said that he was optimistic about the prospects of negotiations between Rome and Brussels. In turn, the European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici today also expressed hope for a compromise. The key date is 13 November, when the Italians have to submit an updated financial document. Otherwise, the European Commission may launch a disciplinary procedure, which is fraught with a multi-billion fine.

However, it does not go beyond words: Rome still insists on the validity of the stated budget deficit, and Brussels still requires it to be revised downward. The outcome of this confrontation is an open question, but, according to experts, the parties are unlikely to find a compromise in the near future. This explains the uncertainty of the bulls of the EUR/GBP – the upward dynamics is impulsive and unstable.

In other words, the correctional growth of the EUR/GBP is primarily due to Brexit sentiment, since the Italian issue is unable to support the single currency. Optimistic comments by politicians (even if they are of the first echelon) have only a temporary impact on the euro.

Taking into account such a fundamental picture, long positions on the EUR/GBP pair look risky: any encouraging information about the prospects for Brexit will stop the growth of the pair and turn it downwards. The euro will not be able to resist this state of affairs in the absence of its own arguments for strengthening.

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From a technical point of view, the price on the daily chart is between the lower and middle lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which shows an extended channel. The downward direction is also confirmed by the bearish "Parade of lines" signal of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator. The resistance level is the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator and the 0.8805 mark. The support level is the lower line of this indicator and the price of 0.8680.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. EUR / CHF review for the week of November 8

Wave pattern graphics H 4:

The last wave of this scale was the final part (C) in a downward zigzag of the daily TF. The oncoming wave of the beginning of September will at least be its correction.

Wave pattern graphics H1:

In the ascending wave from the middle of last month, the middle part of the wave (B) is being formed.It develops in the lateral plane. Probably, its shape will resemble a pennant or a flag.

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Wave pattern graphics M15:

The rising wave of October 26 has a flat character and low growth potential.

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Recommended trading strategy:

In the upcoming week, the price expects lateral movement. The range of oscillation is limited to oncoming zones. Within Intraday, it is possible to conduct short-term transactions according to the expected sequence of price fluctuations.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1490 / 1.1540

Support areas:

- 1.1400 / 1.1350

Explanations to the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, 3 main TFs are used. On each of the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use.

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EUR/USD. November 8th. Results of the day. Nobody expects surprises from the Fed

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 116 p-84 p-71 p-47 p-105 p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 85 p (75 p).

Throughout the entire trading day, traders did not receive any important macroeconomic news. Thus, the reduction of volatility to almost zero and the absence of trend movement are absolutely logical. Market participants are expecting Mario Draghi's speech, which is scheduled for 18-20. It is unlikely that Draghi will please the markets with fundamentally new information, however, his speech should not be missed. The announcement of the results of the Fed meeting is of greater importance for the market . The key rate is likely to remain at the same level, so the Fed's accompanying statement, which may indicate hints at a rate hike in December, will be more interesting. We also note that on the eve of the announcement of the results, market activity is very low. And this is also quite rare, usually traders begin to open positions "on expectations". We are not seeing this now. In general, we can assume that even if there are hints of a rate hike, there will be no particularly strong market reaction. Thus, the technique now has and will be of greater importance. And from a technical point of view, the pair failed to overcome the critical Kijun-sen line, so it has some chances of resuming the upward movement. If it is not prevented by two fundamental events planned for today. We also note that the upward movement is now extremely weak and with fairly frequent corrections. Therefore, it is best to trade on the increase only in the short term.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement. A reversal of the MACD indicator upwards will indicate the end of a correction, but also serve as a signal for opening new long positions with targets at resistance levels of 1,1461 and 1,1519.

Sell orders will become relevant not earlier than fixing the price below the critical line. Small lots with a target of 1.1349. Perhaps this consolidation will happen today, if Draghi upset traders or the Fed pleases them.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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GBP/USD. November 8th. Results of the day. Voting for Theresa May's exit plan is the main event for the pound in the near

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 276p-89p-91p-86 p-101 p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 129 p (134 p).

The British pound sterling has started a weak downward correction. It is the weakness of this correction that allows us to assume that the uptrend is not yet complete. Traders do not take profit on long positions in large quantities. Today's announcement of the results of the Federal Reserve can help traders to continue the corrective movement, if, for example, the Fed will follow hints of a rate hike in December, which, in fact, the market awaits. In this case, the pair may go below the critical line, which will be the first step to change the trend for the instrument. As for the main topic for the pair - Brexit - there was no new information about this. The market is waiting for the 21st, since, according to Dominic Raab, before this date the agreement can be signed by both parties. Meanwhile, a more important event is coming - a vote in Parliament for Theresa May's plan to leave the EU. Here a number of problems may arise. If Parliament does not accept May's plan, which may well happen, given the number of opponents, it can cause a serious blow to the pound, and negotiations with the EU can once again be considered a failure. If May fails to agree even with Parliament, then all her agreements with the EU leaders will not matter. Thus, we recommend focusing on this event.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair started a weak correction. The price rebound from the Kijun-sen line or a turn to the top of the MACD indicator will serve as a signal to open new buy positions with the target of 1.3236.

Sell orders can be opened in small lots if traders manage to overcome the critical line. The goal in this case will be the level of 1.2978.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD: the European Commission has revised its forecasts for the worse. The Fed's decision will not affect the markets

The European currency is gradually returning to a downtrend, which may be formed in the near future. More and more market participants expect that the Federal Reserve will not delay the increase in interest rates, which will only strengthen the position of the US dollar against a number of world currencies.

Today's report from the European Commission carried a lot of risks for the future of the eurozone. The revision of the forecast in the direction of slowing economic growth had a negative impact on the exchange rate of the European currency. The European Commission published the last forecast in July of this year.

According to the data, the European Commission left the forecast of economic growth in the eurozone in 2018 at 2.1%, but the forecast of GDP growth in the eurozone in 2019 was lowered to 1.9% from 2.0%. Economic growth is projected to slow to 1.7% by 2020.

The revision of the forecast is directly related to new risk factors, which now include the overheating of the US economy and a more rapid increase in the Fed rate. We should not forget about tensions in trade relations, rising energy prices and political uncertainty.

It is important to note that the European Commission lowered the forecast for German GDP growth in 2018 to 1.7% from 1.9%, which is a very bad sign.

Inflation will remain within the target levels of the European Central Bank. This conclusion was reached by the economists of the European Commission, who predict the consumer price index in the eurozone in 2018 at 1.8% against the previous forecast of 1.7%. Inflation is also expected to rise to 1.8% in 2019 against the previous forecast of 1.7%.

Good inflation rates could spur the European Central Bank to change its monetary policy next year.

Economists also expect unemployment in the eurozone at 8.4% in 2018 and 7.9% in 2019. The forecast remained unchanged compared to July. As for the eurozone budget deficit, the European Commission believes that it will be at 0.6% in 2018 against the previous forecast of 0.7%. However, significant changes can begin in 2019, when Italy will increase its budget deficit.

As for the fundamental data, today's report on Germany's foreign trade balance was disappointing.

Thus, the positive balance of Germany's foreign trade in September this year amounted to 17.6 billion euros against 18.2 billion in August. Economists had expected the balance to rise to 18.3 billion euros. The fall was due to German exports, which fell by 0.8% in September this year, while imports fell by only 0.4%. The current account surplus of the German balance of payments in September amounted to 21.1 billion euros.

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All the attention of traders in the afternoon will be focused on the decision of the Federal Reserve on interest rates, which are likely to remain unchanged. Economists also do not expect major changes in the Fed's statement, which will be released immediately after the decision on rates.

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The Fed's November meeting: waiting for hints about the December hike

After the announcement of the first results of the elections to the US Congress, the dollar was under considerable pressure, as the lower and upper houses of the legislature were divided between Democrats and Republicans. The dollar index slipped to 95.55 points, reflecting the weakening of the currency in all dollar pairs. The possible imbalance of the American political system has frightened traders - especially against the background of loud statements of Democrats concerning new investigations concerning the president, as its results could even lead to impeachment.

However, during the US session, the situation was unexpectedly smoothed by Donald Trump himself. He expressed readiness to cooperate with the Democratic party, expecting relevant legislative proposals on the development of health care and infrastructure from their representatives. The main message of yesterday's speech was that the White House (as well as the Republican party as a whole) is ready for constructive negotiations and effective cooperation.

In other words, on the one hand, he admitted the defeat of the Republicans in the House of Representatives, but on the other hand, hinted that now the Democrats have legislative levers that should be used not for their political purposes ("digging" for the Republican President), but "for the benefit of the American people." The willingness of Trump to dialogue pleased the traders, after which the dollar regained its position - in particular, the EUR/USD pair moved away from daily highs (1,1500) and ended the trading day at 1.1425.

In my opinion, Trump's speech from yesterday has the character of a political prop. He was forced to curtsy to the Democrats and "pass the ball" on their field, shifting the responsibility for the further actions of the Lower House of Congress. However, such a broad gesture is unlikely to reduce the intensity of the confrontation between the Democratic party and the White House – especially after the "donkeys" took control of the house of representatives from the "elephants". Of course, the Democrats will not be able to block absolutely all of Trump's legislative initiatives (because in the end it can play against them), but this fact does not prevent them from conducting new investigations against the American president, thereby reducing the likelihood of his re-election for a second term.

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Having come to this conclusion, traders again reduced interest in the dollar, after which its growth has been suspended throughout the market. The greenback remained under the background pressure in anticipation of the main event of today - the November meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Although this meeting is considered to be a "walkthrough", its results can cause quite strong volatility among dollar pairs. The fact is that the market is beginning to gradually focus its attention on the future prospects of monetary policy, as the probability of a December rate hike is already at 76%. The slowdown in September inflation and weak wage growth are unlikely to affect the determination of Fed members to raise in December, but at the same time may affect the tone of their rhetoric.

Let me remind you that after today's meeting, there is no press conference for Jerome Powell, so traders will have to "settle for" only an accompanying statement. However, the text of this statement can give answers to many questions – for example, how high is the probability of a rate hike at the spring meeting, taking into account the latest trends in the US economy. And it's not just the slowdown in consumer prices. There are other reasons for concern, which the regulator can turn its attention to (but again – only in the context of future prospects).

In particular, we are talking about the weak dynamics of consumer spending, as well as the decline in the US housing market: in September, the pace of housing construction in the US significantly decreased, and the corresponding figures fell to three-year lows in the southern states. Activity in the country's manufacturing sector also decreased: the number of new orders fell to 1-a-year lows. Thus, in October, the ISM index fell to 57.7 points, while in September this indicator came out at the level of 59.8. Strong Nonfarm, on the one hand, speak about the strengthening of the labor market, but, on the other hand, there is its own "fly in the ointment". An analysis of the Fed's recently published Beige Book suggests that there is a shortage of labor (especially skilled labor) in many regions of the country. Although this nuance is secondary, it can still be taken into account by Fed members.

Thus, the results of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve should: a) confirm the intention of the members of the regulator to raise the interest rate in December; b) outline the future prospects of monetary policy. And if the first point is indicated more or less clearly in the accompanying statement, then the outlines of the long-term prospects will have to be "deciphered" by the traders themselves on the basis of the general tone of the text.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

All attention to the Fed at 18.00 London time today

All attention to the Federal Reserve at 18.00 London time today.

Today, on Thursday, at 18.00 London time, the Fed will publish a decision on rates and a statement on the US economy.

What to look at?

First - will the rate increase? Most experts believe - it will not increase, they will leave it at the level of 2.00-2.25%.

Second, what will be seen from the statement - will the rate be raised further or will they go on hold?

How to understand this? From what will be emphasized: on the risk of accelerating inflation (accelerating wage growth, prices of goods and assets) or the risk of slowing economic growth? In the first case, they will further increase; in the second - they will stop.

This year, the Fed will hold another meeting on December 18-19, the decision will be released on December 19, at this meeting, the Fed will publish a new forecast for the state of the economy and rates - this forecast comes out twice a year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Will the Fed succeed in stirring up the gold?

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Another round of tightening the Fed policy traders are waiting in December. The increase in rates at the end of the September meeting was predictable, the market reaction did not come as a surprise, except for gold.

The stock market declined last month, while yields on Treasury bonds and the dollar rose. The yellow metal, which usually trades in inverse relation to the US currency, settled above the $ 1,200 key mark, starting in August. Experts have different assessments of the dynamics of the precious metal over the past three months. Some are high, others consider it weak, because, for example, in April gold was valued above $ 1,365 per ounce.

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Since the mid-term elections led to a split in Congress, investors suggest that the ideas of Donald Trump may not materialize, and the Fed will have to slow down as part of a tightening policy. This raises the question, can the precious metal resist at around $ 1200 and higher? Probably, yes, if stock markets fall along with the dollar, providing the necessary support.

Stock market

Democrats are unlikely to succeed in seizing control of the Senate in 2020, which means Republicans will be responsible for existing policies that favor business. Yet the action may be under pressure if the Democrats want to investigate Trump's entrepreneurial activity and the alleged deal between Russia and his campaign headquarters. Moreover, they may try to start the impeachment procedure.

Gold without a clear trend

December gold rose in price a little earlier the day before, adding $ 2.40 to $ 1,228.70 an ounce due to a weaker dollar. However, from the point of view of technical analysis, these contracts are subject to sales, and the charts signal the purchase only in the case of return of quotations to the 100-day moving average at $ 1,215.06.

"The market remains extremely volatile, and it is impossible to identify the trend, despite the fact that trading takes place above the 20-day and 100-day moving averages," commodity analysts comment on the situation.

"It's hard to find a driver who can push prices on the spot gold market to the next resistance level around $ 1239-1240," they also write.

The fate of gold can be decided by the Fed, or rather its position. The final statement after the meeting on Thursday may contain tips on what the regulator plans to take in December.

According to the data on Wednesday, futures on federal funds estimate the probability of tightening the policy next month at a little more than 72%. However, the decline of 10 points over the past month suggests that the precious metal has a chance to survive in such a "hawk" climate.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The trade dispute between the United States and China may be resolved on the sidelines of the G20 summit

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China wants to solve problems with the United States through negotiations, but America must respect the development path chosen by China, said country's President Xi Jinping on the eve of a meeting with the US leader in Argentina.

China and the States have already exchanged rates of hundreds of billions of dollars, and Donald Trump is threatening new ones. The Trump administration also accused China of interfering in US policy, aggression in the South China Sea, and in Taiwan. Nevertheless, Trump and Xi are planning to meet on the sidelines of the G20 summit, which is being held in Argentina, for talks, since both countries, despite differences, are trying to bring trade ties back on track.

"China and the United States should correctly evaluate each other's strategic intentions, and although China is ready to solve problems at the negotiations, the United States should respect the development path chosen by China and our legitimate interests," Xi said.

Earlier, the head of the diplomatic mission of China, Wang Yi said that Xi and Trump reached "an important consensus on the healthy and stable development of bilateral relations" in a telephone conversation last week, and their meeting at the G20 summit will be "crucial in resolving a bilateral dispute. Wang added that China is ready to work with the United States to "eliminate violations, restore confidence and fully prepare for the meeting."

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The fall of the euro will continue, and the dollar will grow, and this is why

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The euro is likely to continue falling. There is no good news for the single currency, and the EC has also reduced growth forecasts in Italy, reinforcing investors' concerns about the debt of the third largest economy in the eurozone.

The Italian economy is expected to slow down growth over the next two years, which threatens to increase the budget deficit and supports the Commission's view that the draft budget for 2019 in Italy violates EU budget rules. A new forecast sent the euro down. It is worth noting that before that the currency was able to partially compensate for the losses, but this did not last long.

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The weakness of the euro strengthens the dollar rebound, the election results were in line with expectations and mean that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. The dollar will continue its rise in the medium term under the sigh of relief in the markets after the results of elections in the United States. Now, the attention has shifted to the meeting of the Federal Reserve System. In the coming weeks and months, the market will have to make its own conclusion about what will happen to the US economy and how far the Fed will go, based on Trump's fiscal and trade policy under the new conditions in Congress. Already, it is safe to say that positive salary data, price data, and the labor market will provide additional support for the dollar.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Tesla has appointed a new chairman of the board of directors, the company's shares are growing

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The newly appointed chairman of the board of directors of the manufacturer of electric vehicles Tesla was Robin Denholm, who previously headed the finances of Telstra Corp. Ltd, Australia's largest telecommunications operator.

The founder and CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk, resigned as part of an agreement with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The transition period will last for six months, during which E. Musk will help the new manager to take over Tesla's management, since R. Denholm has to work out his contract at Telstra.

At today's auction, as of 14:44 London time, the value of Tesla shares rose by 2.08%, reaching $ 348.16, the price maximum since mid-August this year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com