Global macro overview for 09/11/2018

On Wednesday it turned out that the election result in the US was in line with the pre-election polls, which may have come as a surprise because surveys have been wrong in many countries for a long time now. In the House of Representatives, the Democrats will have an advantage, and in the Senate, the Republicans have increased their lead. The elections to the Senate are not the great victories of the Republicans, because of the 51 Senatorial seats of the Republicans, 42 were not the subject of these elections (1/3 of the Senate was elected).

President Trump's impeachment cannot be worked out, but it will be much harder for the President to pursue his ideas. In addition, the House of Representatives will match the President's skin so as to weaken him before the elections in 2020.

Theoretically, markets should react with declines in such a result of the election (there will be, for example, no subsequent tax changes and disassembly of the health system), but as I already wrote, the Democratic House of Representatives may block "war" (the trade war with China) President Trump's in turn, they liked the markets very much. In addition, market players were hoping for an agreement between the Republicans and Democrats regarding moderate investment in infrastructure. It was also said that impeding Trump's insistence on reducing taxes would lead to a more lenient monetary policy by the Fed. This, in turn, would weaken the dollar, which helped exporters.

The response of global markets varied. Asia accepted the results of the elections quite skeptically, whereas in Europe, growing contracts for US indices helped in significant increases in indices. The question remained: what would the reaction of the Americans really be? They reacted enthusiastically, which may be a bit surprising because in fact such a result was already discounted earlier and did not change anything on the market of high technology companies (FAANG sector), which was recently so eagerly sold off. The S&P500 index gained 2.12% and returned above the average session value, while NASDAQ increased by 2.64% and violated this average. Apparently, global investors believe (perhaps rightly) that the ending of the bullish rally began.

Let's now take a look at the SPX technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is currently consolidating the recent gains and is trading in a narrow horizontal zone between the levels of 279.48 - 281.09. The trading conditions are now overbought, so a corrective pullback to the level of 277.07 would be welcomed. The momentum remains strong and positive, so there is still a chance for a further rally towards the level of 285.40.

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