Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 11, 2019

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Despite GBP/JPY exceeding our target for wave b of the expanded flat near 132.65 we continue to look for wave c developing soon for a decline towards 129.41 before the next impulsive rally higher towards 135.40.

Short-term a break below minor support at 132.74 will indicate wave b being complete and wave c developing towards 129.41.

R3: 134.34

R2: 133.82

R1: 133.50

Pivot: 132.96

S1: 132.74

S2: 132.59

S3: 132.13

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a GBP buying opportunity near 129.50.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 11, 2019

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Despite moving above our target for wave b at 118.93 we continue to look for wave c of an expanded flat correction starting to develop soon. This c wave will ideally see a decline to 117.24 before the next impulsive rally higher towards 123.13.

Short-term a break below minor support at 118.75 will indicate wave c being in motion.

R3: 119.88

R2: 119.59

R1: 119.29

Pivot: 118.75

S1: 118.51

S2: 118.28

S3: 117.91

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a EUR buying opportunity near 117.40

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 11, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, the price may continue to move up with the target at 1.2385 - the upper fractal. From the level of 1.2385, you can work down, but very carefully, with profit taking at the very first properties of the upper work.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, the price may continue to move up.

From the level of 1.2385, you can work down with the first target of 1.2007 - the lower fractal.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 11, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, it is possible to continue the upward movement in the side channel, with the target of 1.1068 - 21 average EMA (black thin line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, an upward movement in the side channel is expected. From the level of 1.1068, you can work down with the first target of 1.1017, the lower fractal.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 11. The pound may start a downward correction amid suspension of Parliament

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The British pound once again tried to resume the downward correction, which was formed after the data on the decline in unemployment in the UK, which is a good signal for the economy. However, the GBP/USD pair did not lead to serious technical changes. At the moment, the task of buyers is to break through the same resistance at 1.2381, which limited the upward potential yesterday afternoon. This will make it possible for the bull market to resume, the target of which will be the highs of 1.2427 and 1.2460, where I recommend taking profits. If the bears build a downward correction, support will be provided by the level of 1.2315, but you can buy from there only under the scenario of the formation of a false breakdown. It is best to open long positions for a rebound in the region of a low of 1.2238.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Given that there is good news for the pound and Brexit is over, and Boris Johnson has time to think about the response, the likelihood of a pound decline in the near future has increased significantly. Sellers will actively defend a high of 1.2381, and the formation of a false breakdown there will necessarily lead to the correction of GBP/USD to the support area of 1.2315, where I recommend taking profits. With a larger closing of long positions, the pair may also test the 1.2238 area. If a bullish impulse leads to a breakthrough of resistance at 1.2380, it is best to consider new short positions after updating local highs in the areas of 1.2427 and 1.2460.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates some market uncertainty in the short term.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is gradually reduced, which does not provide signals on entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 11/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Leading ASIC excavator manufacturer, Bitmain, announced the release of two new S17 devices. Two new mining systems, namely S17e and T17e, will be launched today. The company claims that both new models contain improvements that should translate into higher performance, more stable operation and longer life.

Bitmain also published the specifications of both newly announced mining machines. S17e has a hash rate of 64 TH / s and works with an energy efficiency of 45J / TH, while T17e offers a hash rate of 53TH / s and energy efficiency of 55J / TH.

Both S17e and T17e are equipped with a two-pipe heat dissipation system, which is reported to improve the equipment's efficiency in terms of its removal. This should increase the life of the equipment and its stability.

What's more, Bitmain also claims that the software embedded in the two new ASICs has higher cyber security standards to prevent malicious attacks.

The company also announced compensation for late delivery. Under this new initiative, customers whose deliveries are delayed will receive compensation from Bitmain in the form of coupons for each day of delay.

Technical Market Overview:

Not much has changed on the ETH/USD market as the price is still locked inside a narrow horizontal trading zone located between the levels of $175.25 - $183.43. In order to regain control of the market, the bulls will have to make a new swing high again and head towards the level of $193.52 in an impulsive fashion, otherwise, the bears might push the prices lower towards the support at $172 and $164.81 again. The larger time frame trend is still bearish and despite the potential termination of the wave 2 of the higher degree, the market participants still did not make the price to rally significantly.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $207.64

WR2 - $195.13

WR1 - $188.15

Weekly Pivot - $176.09

WS1 - $169.04

WS2 - $156.97

WS3 - $149.69

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the lower wave degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $202.59 and $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 11/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Facebook's Stablecoin, Libra, must meet the highest anti-money laundering (AML) and terrorist financing standards, as stated by Undersecretary of the Treasury Ministry of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Sigal Mandelker.

According to the publication, Sigal Mandelker told reporters in Geneva that every cryptocurrency - including Libra - operating in the United States must meet local regulatory standards.

Financial regulators around the world have concerns about Libra, and key European Central Bank official, Yves Mersch, recently said that Facebook's stablecoin is "captivating but treacherous" at an ECB legal conference.

A delegation of US regulators visited Switzerland, where Libra is based to investigate the project and meet with local regulators. The visit, however, did not alleviate the fears of US regulators.

Facebook is also trying to influence US regulators by increasing lobbying efforts by employing a lobbying company at the end of August, followed by two more lobbyists.

Interestingly, Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, gave a more original opinion when he suggested the transformation of the global financial system by replacing the US dollar with a digital currency similar to Facebook Libra.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $9,882 during the expansion of the corrective cycle in the wave 2 of a higher degree. Despite the fact, that the typical target level for correction was hit, the market is still trading below the short-term trendline resistance and the bounce from $9,882 was rather shallow. It might suggest, that the corrective cycle has not been completed yet and there is more downside to come. The next technical support is seen at the level of $9,704 - $9,645.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $12,244

WR2 - $11,525

WR1 - $10,919

Weekly Pivot - $10,260

WS1 - $9,607

WS2 - $8,906

WS3 - $8,306

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The wave 2 corrective cycles is about to be completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 11. Traders are in no hurry to return to the market before an important

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The lack of movement in the EUR/USD pair and low volatility are explained by the importance of the European Central Bank meeting, the results of which will be known tomorrow. The ECB is expected to lower interest rates. At the moment, the focus in the first half of the day will be concentrated at the same level of 1.1053, a breakdown of which will lead to an update of last week's high in the area of 1.1082, where I recommend taking profits. A larger growth should not be expected, since important fundamental statistics are not planned for the first half of the day. Under the scenario of EUR/USD decline, you can count on support in the region of 1.1020, however, opening long positions from there is best after a false breakdown, or buy the pair for a rebound from a low of 1.0989.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Nothing has changed from a technical point of view. Euro sellers are activated after an update of resistance at 1.1053, and the formation of a false breakdown there will be the first signal to open short positions in the expectation of a return and correction to the support of 1.1020. However, a breakthrough and consolidation below this low remains a more important task, which will push EUR/USD to the area of large levels 1.0989 and 1.0955, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of further growth above the resistance of 1.1053, which can only happen closer to the beginning of the US session after the release of inflation data in the United States, it is best to count on sales as a rebound from the high of 1.1082, which kept the pair yesterday from further growth last week.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is very low, which does not provide signals on entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 11/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The buyers on the GBP/USD pair still did not throw a towel and they keep the prices close to the recent high at the level of 1.2381. The momentum is still strong and positive and the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2430 (weekly technical resistance from January 2018). On the other hand, the next targets for bears, if they will continue the pull-back is seen at the level of 1.2224 or even at the level of 1.2175. The larget timeframe trend remains down and this move up is being considered as a corrective rally in a downtrend.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2838

WR2 - 1.2600

WR1 - 1.2467

Weekly Pivot - 1.2210

WS1 - 1.2063

WS2 - 1.1816

WS3 - 1.1679

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2429 and it must be clearly violated. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.2000 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 11/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair keeps trading in a narrow horizontal range between the levels of 1.1017 - 11072. Bulls are still trying to continue the bounce and to make the market to rally, so they might try to push the prices higher towards the level of 1.1091 and even 1.1160. In order to regain control over the price, the bulls have to break through this level and go higher towards the next target located at the level of 1.1091 and then at 1.1167. For now, the bullish momentum is increasing as the RSI indicator jumps around the level of 50 in overbought market conditions. The larger timeframe trend remains down, but the Ending Diagonal price pattern on Weekly and Daily timeframe charts is still valid.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1261

WR2 - 1.1174

WR1 - 1.1105

Weekly Pivot - 1.1012

WS1 - 1.0944

WS2 - 1.0856

WS3 - 1.0789

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0814 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, September 11, 2019

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When the European market opens, no economic data will be released today, while the US will publish some economic data such as 10-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, PPI m/m, and Core PPI m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1102. Strong Resistance: 1.1096. Original Resistance: 1.1085. Inner Sell Area: 1.1074. Target Inner Area: 1.1049. Inner Buy Area: 1.1024. Original Support: 1.1013. Strong Support: 1.1002. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0996. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, September 11, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the BSI Manufacturing Index and the US will publish some economic data such as 10-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, PPI m/m, and Core PPI m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3: 108.16. Resistance. 2: 107.95. Resistance. 1: 107.74. Support. 1: 107.48. Support. 2: 107.27. Support. 3: 107.06. (Disclaimer)

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GBP/USD facing bearish pressure from resistance, potential for further drop!

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GBPUSD is facing bearish pressure from our first resistance where we could be seeing a further drop below this level.

Entry: 1.2383

Why it's good : horizontal pullback resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 1.2522

Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 1.2167

Why it's good: Horizontal overlap support, 50% Fibonacci retracement

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USD/JPY approaching upside confirmation, potential

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USDJPY is reversing off 1st resistance at 107.49 and could drop further from here!

Entry :107.49

Why it's good :horizontal swing high resistance

61.8% Fibonacci retracement

61.8% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 107.09

Why it's good :horizontal pullback support

23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on September 11, 2019

AUD / USD pair

In the last two days, the Australian dollar has fixed above both lines of the price channels (red and blue) for the weekly and monthly scales. The price is also higher than the balance lines and MACD daily chart. The nearest target is open to July 10 minimum at 0.691. Subsequent consolidation above a new level opens the second target of 0.6962, which is the upper border of the blue (weekly) price channel.

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For the development of a falling scenario, the price should fall below the support of the MACD line on the four-hour chart at 0.6815. Under this condition, the downward target below opens to 0.6685, which is the embedded line of the red (monthly) price channel.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 11, 2019

EUR/USD

Markets already have ideas about tomorrow, when the ECB is expected to announce new measures to ease monetary policy. As usual, exaggerated expectations include lowering the rate, compensating banks for the negative impact of negative rates, launching an asset purchase program on the regulator's balance sheet ... Of course, all measures, even if they were discussed in the working order, cannot be introduced immediately. Up to the point that nothing can be changed at all but only announce imminent changes tomorrow. The reaction of the euro can be completely unpredictable here. From rise to fall. As an effect of deceived expectations and as a work ahead of schedule.

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From the technical side, the euro remains unchanged from yesterday, the control levels are not broken, and this facilitates the practical task; if the price consolidates above the upper level of 1.1073 - the Fibonacci level of 123.6%, the price will go to the magnetic point of 1.1157 formed by the coincidence of the Fibonacci level of 110.0%, the price channel line and the MACD line on the daily chart. Such a development of the situation is partly indicated by the Marlin oscillator of the daily TF - its signal line has not yet reversed from the boundary with the growth territory.

The price drop below the Fibonacci level of 138.2% (1.0986) opens the way to a fall in the area of the Fibonacci level of 161.8% and the lower line of the price channel, to the area of 1.0838.

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On the four-hour chart, the price also remains in a neutral situation, but here the Marlin oscillator came even closer to the trend change line.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on September 11, 2019

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the British pound again touched the control level of 1.2381 with declining technical indicators, primarily ahead of the Marlin oscillator. On the one hand, this could be a sign of a price reversal downward, the movement to support the price channel line and the MACD line on the daily chart, to the level of 1.2188, on the other hand, the price exit above 1.2381 opens the way for further growth with the target at 1.2548 - Fibonacci level of 161.8%, and then the decline of Marlin automatically becomes a mere discharge of the indicator in front of a new wave of growth.

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However, the declining scenario remains basic. The pound's first task in implementing this scenario will be to consolidate the price below the MACD line on the four-hour chart (1.2282), after which it is possible to achieve important support of the daily scale 1.2188. Leaving the price below opens the subsequent target at 1.2077-1.2107.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for September 11

Forecast for September 11:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1155, 1.1122, 1.1097, 1.1047, 1.1008, 1.0987, 1.0960 and 1.0926. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the ascending structure of September 3. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1047. In this case, the target is 1.1097. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.1097 - 1.1122. We consider the level of 1.1155 to be a potential value for the upward trend. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1008 - 1.0987. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.0960. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its passage at the price will lead to the formation of a local downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 1.0926.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1050 Take profit: 1.1095

Buy 1.1098 Take profit: 1.1120

Sell: 1.1008 Take profit: 1.0988

Sell: 1.0985 Take profit: 1.0960

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2460, 1.2408, 1.2351, 1.2300, 1.2266, 1.2218 and 1.2190. Here, we follow the development of the upward cycle of September 3. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2351. In this case, the target is 1.2408. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to expect movement to the level of 1.2460, and upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the range of 1.2408 - 1.2460. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2514. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.2300 - 1.2266. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2218. The range of 1.2218 - 1.2190 is the key support for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the upward cycle of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2351 Take profit: 1.2406

Buy: 1.2409 Take profit: 1.2460

Sell: 1.2300 Take profit: 1.2268

Sell: 1.2264 Take profit: 1.2218

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9991, 0.9974, 0.9947, 0.9917, 0.9865, 0.9849, 0.9824 and 0.9796. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of September 4. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9917. In this case, the target is 0.9947. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9947 will lead to movement to a potential target - 0.9974. Upon reaching this value, we expect consolidation in the range of 0.9974 - 0.9991, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Departure for correction is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9887. In this case, the target is 0.9865. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9865 - 0.9849. The breakdown of the latter value will favor the development of a downward structure.

The main trend is the rising structure of September 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9917 Take profit: 0.9945

Buy : 0.9948 Take profit: 0.9972

Sell: 0.9885 Take profit: 0.9867

Sell: 0.9865 Take profit: 0.9850

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.12, 107.76, 107.49, 107.17, 106.80, 106.60 and 106.29. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of September 3. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 107.49 - 107.76, hence, the likelihood of a reversal in the correction. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.12. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

A correction can take place, after the breakdown of the level of 107.07. Here, the target is 106.80. A short-term downward movement is in the range of 106.80 - 106.60. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the potential target is 106.29.

Main trend: local upward structure from September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.50 Take profit: 107.74

Buy : 107.78 Take profit: 108.10

Sell: 107.05 Take profit: 106.82

Sell: 106.78 Take profit: 106.60

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3259, 1.3230, 1.3208, 1.3181, 1.3117, 1.3094 and 1.3052. Here, we follow the development of the descending structure of September 3. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.3117 - 1.3094. In this case, the potential target is 1.3052, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the top.

Departure for correction is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3181. In this case, the first goal is 1.3208. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3208 - 1.3230. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.3259. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3181 Take profit: 1.3208

Buy : 1.3208 Take profit: 1.3230

Sell: 1.3117 Take profit: 1.3095

Sell: 1.3092 Take profit: 1.3052

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6967, 0.6918, 0.6884, 0.6867, 0.6841, 0.6822 and 0.6793. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of September 3. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.6867 - 0.6884. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 0.6918. Price consolidation is near this value. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6967. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6841 - 0.6822. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the potential target is 0.6793. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6886 Take profit: 0.6918

Buy: 0.6920 Take profit: 0.6965

Sell : 0.6840 Take profit : 0.6822

Sell: 0.6820 Take profit: 0.6795

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.60, 119.05, 118.78, 118.34, 118.02 and 117.53. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the ascending structure of September 3. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 118.78 - 119.05. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to a potential target - 119.60, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 118.34 - 118.02. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 117.53. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward cycle of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 118.78 Take profit: 119.05

Buy: 119.07 Take profit: 119.60

Sell: 118.34 Take profit: 118.04

Sell: 118.00 Take profit: 117.55

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 136.13, 134.74, 134.10, 132.94, 131.91, 131.36, 130.57 and 129.70. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the upward cycle of September 3. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 132.96. In this case, the target is 134.10. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 134.10 - 134.74. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level 136.13. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 131.91 - 131.36. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 130.57. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its passage in price will lead to the formation of a downward structure. Here, the potential target is 129.70.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 132.96 Take profit: 134.10

Buy: 134.10 Take profit: 134.72

Sell: 131.90 Take profit: 131.36

Sell: 131.34 Take profit: 130.58

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AUD/USD paused, awaits news after a five-day rally

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After a sharp rally during the previous five trading days and adding almost 150 pips over this period, the AUD/USD pair entered the consolidation phase and fluctuates in a narrow range near 0.6850. Earlier, the National Australia Bank reported that the business confidence index fell to 1 point in August from 4 points in July, and the business conditions index fell to 1 point from 2 points, in such conditions it is difficult for the aussie to continue to press the dollar. In addition, the producer price index in China fell to -0.8% in August year-on-year, which further inhibits growth.

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On the other hand, the lack of significant macroeconomic data from the United States did not make it possible for the US dollar index to strengthen and limited losses in the pair. At the moment, the US dollar index shows a small daily gain of 98.38 points. It seems that investors are likely to stand aside and watch, waiting for new events around the trade conflict between the US and China. Earlier today, the White House trade adviser said that "patience is needed regarding trade negotiations between the US and China," but he has not made any statements hinting at progress in the negotiations.

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Yen in positive territory: growth continues

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Positive forecasts of analysts regarding the yen were successful. Currently, the USD/JPY pair surpassed the 107 mark amid growth of high yield on bonds and the US stock market. The Japanese currency is trading between 107.37-107.39, analysts say.

The strengthening of the US currency against the Japanese yen is due to the elimination of speculative positions in connection with the growth of Treasury yields. According to analysts, the USD/JPY pair received significant support from a powerful rebound in the yield of US Treasury bonds. As a result, the pair resumed growth, analysts emphasize.

On Tuesday, September 10, the USD/JPY pair rose 0.2% to 107.41. Previously, the pair briefly reached the level of 107.50 - the highest since the beginning of August 2019. At the moment, a slight decrease in the yen has been recorded.

Currency Strategists at Westpac Banking Corp. believe that the Japanese currency will recover to 105 against the dollar in the fourth quarter of this year. Most analysts are upbeat about the prospects for the Japanese currency.

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GBP/USD. September 10. Results of the day. Unemployment in the UK declined, wages rose

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 147p - 176p - 144p - 65p - 151p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 137p (high).

Well, the UK Parliament has officially gone on a 5-week vacation, and Boris Johnson has softened his rhetoric on Brexit. Now the prime minister believes that a "deal" with the European Union can be achieved and every effort should be made to do so. But if this option is not possible, the country must leave the European Union without an agreement and can withstand it, Johnson said. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair also spoke on this occasion. He said that the snap parliamentary elections Johnson is seeking will not help solve the difficult situation with Brexit. Only one more popular referendum can resolve the current crisis. Blair said that it is incorrect, in principle, to mix issues of early elections in Parliament and Brexit, as these two issues should be separated. According to Blair, Boris Johnson believes that the early elections will give him the opportunity to raise the question of Brexit with an edge: either the country leaves the EU without a "deal", or Jeremy Corbyn becomes the new prime minister. Probably, it means that Corbyn, as prime minister, will not satisfy a much larger number of British citizens than an unordered "divorce" with the European Union. We can also add that the prime minister clearly hoped to increase the presence of Conservatives in Parliament through re-elections, which would allow him to more easily push the "hard" Brexit through the wall of warring opposition. However, all this will not happen. In the coming weeks, we will be observing the actions of Boris Johnson, who should now ask the EU leaders for a delay, and the EU leaders who must give Johnson an answer. The question now stands on the agenda: will the European Union approve the new Brexit date postponement?

Meanwhile, the pound is again rising against the US dollar thanks to another very good package of macroeconomic statistics from the United Kingdom. Today, September 10, it became known that the unemployment rate fell from 3.9% to 3.8% in July, and the average wage including bonuses increased by 4.0% in July against the forecast of +3.7%. Traders found these reports strong enough to continue buying the British currency.

Well, what in the end? As a result, the pound has risen and remains in this position. Until Boris Johnson begins to pull the rope to his side, the fundamental background for the British pound will remain very favorable, because the main question that worries the currency market now is whether the hard Brexit will take place before October 31 or will it be postponed. thanks to the actions of the Parliament, but are there possible options? Thus, until Boris Johnson takes any actions that again bring them closer to a disorderly exit, the pound will be prone to growth.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair resumed an upward movement with targets at resistance levels 1.2437 and 1.2499. The average volatility in the pair remains quite high. The MACD indicator has begun to discharge. Thus, it is recommended to trade with the stated goals, and to manually close trades use signals to rebound from target levels or by moving Stop Loss up.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

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GBP/USD: "White line" for the pound: key indicators are growing, negotiations continue

The pound continues to receive support from the fundamental background. Data on the growth of Britain's GDP, industrial production, as well as labor market indicators unexpectedly came out in the "green zone", exceeding forecast values. Although Brexit's prospects are still of primary importance for the British currency, traders of the GBP/USD pair could not ignore the above releases. Recently, macroeconomic statistics in the UK have not pleased investors: on the contrary, during the summer, analysts seriously talked about the risks of recession, given the series of negative releases, ranging from PMI indices to June data on economic growth in the country. Therefore, now that the indicators have come out "better than expected", the pound has taken off, especially against the backdrop of a series of defeats of Prime Minister Johnson in the House of Commons.

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The pound updates its weekly and 1-a month high against the dollar today. The above combination of fundamental factors made it possible for the bulls to develop corrective growth, which, it would seem, was "doomed" after harsh statements by EU representatives. But due to the positive of recent days, the demand for the sterling has increased again. Thus, according to the latest data, the volume of British GDP on a monthly basis increased by 0.3% in July against the forecast of -0.1% and after falling to zero in June. The services sector made the strongest contribution to the growth of this indicator - this sector of the economy showed the strongest growth over the past 8 months. The volume of industrial growth also pleased investors: the indicator grew by 0.1%, while most analysts were confident that it would remain in the negative area.

The data on the labor market in Britain today only secured success. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 3.8% (although many were confident that it would remain at the previous level of 3.9%), but the average earnings jumped immediately to 4% (including premiums) and 3.8% (excluding bonuses). These indicators have shown consistent positive dynamics since the spring of this year, and last month the indicator without bonuses was at its highest since June 2008 (this month the indicator fell only 0.1% of the highest value). All this suggests that the price pressure on the part of salaries is increasing, and this fact will have a beneficial effect on inflationary growth in the future.

Thus, if it were not for the "Brexit factor," traders could count on a tightening of the rhetoric of the English regulators' representatives, indicating a possible increase in the interest rate in the first half of next year. But Mark Carney is still focused on the consequences of the "divorce proceedings". Today, the head of the Bank of England said that the financial system of Britain is ready for Brexit, "in whatever form it occurs." But at the same time, he noted that in the case of a "hard" scenario, changes will occur in one moment, so the regulator will have to "adapt to dynamic changes." Carney did not talk about the prospects of monetary policy in plain text, only noting that the central bank is unlikely to use negative rates as a defense tool.

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Given the voiced position of the head of the Bank of England, it is worth recognizing that, despite the good data on the growth of key economic indicators, the focus of attention of the regulators' members is still on Brexit. I note that yesterday Boris Johnson suffered another debacle in the House of Commons: MPs refused to hold early elections in October. Now, the head of government will not be able to strengthen his position in Parliament and cancel the law, which actually binds his hands, until October 31. However, the risk of implementing a hard Brexit still remains.

Let me remind you that the French foreign minister recently announced that Paris will not support the extension of the Brexit negotiation process after December 31. Later, a similar position was expressed by Holland and some politicians of other EU countries. France even threatened to veto the decision to postpone if London "does not substantiate its request in detail". In turn, Johnson is not only not going to ask Brussels about this, but also intends to "strongly recommend" his European colleagues not to take such steps.

Thus, the British prime minister plans to bypass the law adopted last week, which obliges him to agree to the granted delay. According to Johnson, he will not violate the prescriptive norms if he simultaneously sends two letters to the EU leadership: one asking for a delay (as required by law), and the other with the opposite request (as deputies did not directly forbid him to take such steps). Another scenario being discussed on Downing Street involves litigation. According to some analysts, Johnson may challenge this law in court. Or he can be challenged by those Conservative deputies who voted against him in the House of Commons.

As soon as Boris Johnson starts implementing one of the above scenarios, the pound will be under significant pressure (having returned paired with the dollar to the area of 21-22 figures). But so far, the market is living with hopes. Brexit negotiator David Frost today went to Brussels, where he will hold talks with EU representatives until the end of the week. The market is still hoping that Britain and the EU will find a common denominator (primarily on the issue of back-stop) by closing a historic deal at the October 18 summit. Although, in my opinion, this scenario is highly unlikely, given the background of this issue.

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From a technical point of view, the pair has the potential for further correctional growth to the level of 1.2430 (the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart). The next resistance level is the price of 1.2520 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart), but this price target will be available only if one of the top EU politicians hints at progress in the negotiations. The support level remains at 1.2180 - at this price point, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator coincides with the Kijun-sen line (on D1).

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Oil returns to the past

Once upon a time in the market they seriously believed that oil prices could change if the prince of Saudi Arabia sneezed. It seems that old times are returning. Despite the fact that the new Minister of Energy, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, claims that nothing will change in Riyadh's policy and the country will continue long-term cooperation with Russia and other producers, prices are rising at a dash. Brent quotes reached a 6-week peak simply because Saudi Arabia violated its principle of not appointing members of the Royal Family. The situation seems to be critical, and in anticipation of the important IPO Saudi Aramco, the Saudis need oil at a higher price than the current one.

In previous articles, we talked about how the fall of Brent stalled the economy of Saudi Arabia. To balance the budget, it needs a North Sea grade of $80 per barrel. Yes, the new Minister of Energy argues that there will be no fundamental changes in Riyadh's policy, but the very fact that the Saudis keep their desire to stabilize the market pushes futures quotes higher. Rumors are actively circulating in the market that OPEC may prolong the Vienna agreement to reduce production by 1.2 million bpd for a longer period.

The dynamics of oil production by Saudi Arabia

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In addition, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, in his first speech as Minister of Energy, dealt a blow to the main trump card of the Bears - Brent and WTI - global demand. In his opinion, the fall in prices is speculative. Investors fear a recession in the global economy, but in reality there will be no recession. The trade war between the US and China will soon end, and the black gold market will improve. It should be recognized that it was the factor of reduction in world demand that pulled down futures quotes, while the factor of growth in production in the US was offset by its reduction from OPEC and other producing countries. So, Citi claims that the loss of global demand since March 2018 amounted to 800 thousand bpd. The indicator will grow by 940 thousand bpd in 2019, and if trade frictions in Washington and Beijing keep going for another six months - by 600-700 thousand bpd. In such circumstances, it will be difficult for bulls on oil to push quotes higher.

However, if Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman is right, then the situation is fundamentally changing. Investors sincerely hope that opponents will take a step towards each other in October, and we can talk about a de-escalation of the conflict. Moreover, according to the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, the Americans are ready for negotiations, and substantial progress is taking place in relations between the United States and China. Stock indices react to this news with growth, which indicates an increase in global risk appetite and favorably affects both grades of black gold.

Technically, as expected, a breakthrough of the upper limit of the consolidation range of $57.45-61.35 per barrel activated the Shark pattern and increased the risks of its target by 88.6%. In addition, Wolfe waves were formed on the Brent daily chart, so the growth of quotes can continue up to $68.2 and higher.

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