Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 12, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair broke below the support level of 112.60 and broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the bearish cross between 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum.

To conclude, as long as 112.60 is not broken, look for a further decline with targets at 112.10 and 111.95 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 112.60 with a target at 112.80.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 112.60, Take Profit: 112.10

Resistance levels: 112.80, 113.05 and 113.35 Support Levels: 112.10, 111.95, 111.45

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 12, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair broke above the falling broadening wedge, which confirmed the continuation of bullish trend. The rising 20-period moving average is playing a support role. The relative strength index broke above a bearish trend line.

The market showed muted reaction to minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting, which showed most officials expected another interest-rate increase this year. Meanwhile, sentiment was boosted by a media report that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was persuading President Donald Trump to nominate Jerome Powell, who is seen as friendly to the financial markets, as the next Federal Reserve chairman.

Hence, as long as 0.9710 is not broken, look for a further upside to 0.9790 and even to 0.9810 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9710, Take Profit: 0.9790

Resistance levels: 0.9790, 0.9810, and 0.9845

Support levels: 0.9680, 0.9665, and 0.9615

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 12, 2017

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GBP/JPY is under pressure and expected to continue its downside movement. The pair remains supported by its declining 50-period moving average, and is likely to post a new downside target. A strong resistance base around 148.40 has formed, and should also limit any upward attempts. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum.

Therefore, as long as 148.40 is not broken, further decline is expected to 147.40 and 147 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 148.40 with the target at 149.05.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 148.40, Take Profit: 147.40

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 149.05, 149.50 and 150.05

Support levels: 147.40, 147.00, and 146.10

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 12, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair is rebounding above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the 50-period moving average is turning up. The relative strength index is supported by a bullish trend line since October 11.

To conclude, as long as 0.7080 is not broken, look for the continuation of rebound with targets at 0.7145 and 0.7165 in extension.

The black line is showing the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7145, 0.7165, and 0.7190

Support levels: 0.7030, 0.7000, and 0.6955

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for October 12, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair finds difficulty to surpass the EMA50 that forms good intraday resistance at 112.50, and the price needs to surpass this level to be released from the current negative pressure followed by resuming the expected bullish trend for the upcoming period, which its next target located at 114.49. In general, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend unless breaking 112.00 level and holding below it, as breaking this level will push the price to extend its bearish correction towards 111.10 areas, and might extend to 110.38 before any new attempt to rise. The expected trading range for today is between 111.80 support and 113.44 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Gold for October 12, 2017

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Overview

Gold price has been showing calm upward trading to approach the first waited target at $1,299.20, keeping the bullish trend scenario valid until now. It is supported by the EMA50 that carries the price from below. Please note that breaching the mentioned level is required to push the price towards $1,321.49 as the next upward target. Stochastic is showing bullish signals that support the chances of extending the bullish wave in the short term. Let me remind you that holding above 1281.17 represents the key condition to continue the expected rise. The expected trading range for today is between $1,281.00 support and $1,310.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for October 12, 2017

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Overview

Silver price managed to breach the resistance line that appears on the above chart and settles above it, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend on the intraday and short-term basis, reminding you that our positive targets begin at 17.43 and extend to reach 18.30 after breaching the previous level. Stochastic negativity interprets the reason of the current sideways fluctuation, waiting to gain enough positive momentum to push the price to continue rising in the upcoming sessions, reminding you that holding above 16.56 represents the most important condition to continue the suggested bullish wave. The expected trading range for today is between 17.00 support and 17.35 resistance.

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Global macro overview for 12/10/2017

Global macro overview for 12/10/2017:

The US Tax Reform might not materialize at all. The reason behind this situation is simple: one vote is still missing in the US Senate. The remaining vore might likely come from Rand Paul who already blocked the disassembly of Obamacare. President Trump has already announced that he will propose a revision of his plan in order to broaden his support, which, of course, may delay the entry into force of the new regulations. As if that was not enough, the US president first withdrew support for his former ally Bob Corker. He then went on Twitter to a keynote address with this influential Republican senator. Subsequent divisions and quarrels in the Republican camp certainly do not help strengthen the fragile support for Trump's administration. For the time being, the most important source in Washington says that the dominant point of view in the party is that the implementation of the reform agenda is a priority and that the dispute should be dismissed as soon as possible. This situation is not helping the US Dollar, which is depreciating across the board.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price dropped towards the important technical support at the level of 92.57 after poor NFP report, dovish FOMC Meeting Minutes and ongoing Trump administration problems in the US Senate. Currently, the market conditions are oversold, so there is a chance for bulls to test the technical resistance at the level of 93.35 from the downside.

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Global macro overview for 12/10/2017

Global macro overview for 12/10/2017:

The FOMC Meeting Minutes revealed bigger than expected worries about inflation pressures. The concerns about low inflation were expressed in the dovish camp, whilst the hawkish camp put more weight on labour market data than current inflation data. As the minutes suggested, many Fed officials continued to believe "cyclical pressures" would "show through to higher inflation" in the medium term and many judged that "at least some of the softening this year to be idiosyncratic". Moreover, the policymakers "continued to project that inflation would edge higher in the next couple of years and that it would reach the Committee's longer-run objective in 2019".

Fed fund futures are pricing in 88% chance of a December hike, slightly lower than yesterday's 93%. Nevertheless, Fed is still on track for a December hike, despite persistently low inflation or the dismal job market data as FOMC members saw economic growth as healthy and improving. Moreover, some FOMC members warned that any hesitation in "removing policy accommodation could result in an overshoot of the Committee's inflation objective in the medium term that would likely be costly to reverse."

In conclusion, there was not anything completely new in the FOMC Meeting Minutes that market participants wouldn't have known before. Even the recent poor job market data were somewhat expected as the weather-related damages made by the hurricanes was obvious, so the disappointing NFP figures could not change the Fed's point of view.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trading in a narrow price range between the levels of 111.98 - 112.50 in oversold market conditions. The next nearest technical support is seen at the level of 111.45 and the next important technical resistance is seen at the level of 112.91.

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Bitcoin analysis for October 12, 2017

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price spiked and tested the level of $5.232 driven on the news that Vladimir Putin and Russian regulators announced that cryptocurrencie will be officially regulated in Russia. The central bank and the finance ministry will now work together to come up with one draft law to provide a basic regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies including bitcoin, which is expected to pass by the year's end. The technical picture looks very bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time frame, I found a broken trading range, which is a sign that selling looks risky. There is strong reading on ADX with above 70 period, which is a sign that momentum is very strong in favor of buyers. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunties. The upward targets are set at the price of $5.310, $5.465 and $5.709.

Support/Resistance

$5.068 – Intraday support (price action)

$5.310 – First objective target (price action)

$5.465 – Second objective target

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USD/JPY analysis for October 12, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading sideways at the price of 112.25. Anyway, according to the 30M time - frame, I found that sellers are in control. There is a rising in ADX in last downward leg, which is a sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportuntiies. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential downward targets. I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price 112.05, Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 111.75 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 111.25.

Resistance levels:

R1: 112.70

R2: 112.90

R3: 113.20

Support levels:

S1: 112.20

S2: 111.90

S3: 111.70

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Analysis of Gold for October 12, 2017

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Recently, Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,297.50. According to the 15M time - frame, I found a successful testing of solid support at the price of $1,294.00, which is a sign that selling looks risky. The ADX indicator is above 30 level, which means that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportuntiies. Upwards targets are set at the price of $1,297.50, 1,299.70 and $1,305.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,298.25

R2: $1,301.60

R3: $1,307.35

Support levels:

S1: $1,289.15

S2: $1,283.40

S3: $1,280.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 12, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair rose from the level of 0.7055 towards 0.7128 yesterday. Now, the price is set at 0.7111 to act as a major resistance at the spot of 0.7055-0.7111. It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the NZD/USD pair is still moving between 0.7128 and 0.7040 in coming hours. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the levels of 0.7169 and 0.7220, which coincides with the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. From this point, the NZD/USD pair is continuing in a bearish trend from the new resistance of 0.7128. Thereupon, the price spot of 0.7128/0.7087 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, a possibility that the NZD/USD pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.0020, sell below 0.7128 or 0.7087 with the first targets at 0.7040 and 0.7000 (support 3). However, the stop loss should be located above the level of 0.7169.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 12, 2017

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Overview:

  • As expected; the USD/CHF pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the level of 0.9708, which is expected to act as major support in coming two days. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 30. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 0.9708 with the first target at the level of 0.9772. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.9816 and further to the level of 0.9836. The level of 0.9816 will act as strong resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.9836. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.9700, then this scenario may become invalidated.
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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 12, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, if the current bearish breakout persists below 1.1800 (the depicted uptrend line) and 1.1700, a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 where BUY entries can be offered.

Trade Recommendations

Bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.1835-1.1850 (the backside of the broken uptrend line) should be considered for a valid SELL entry.

S/L should be placed above 1.1950.

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for October 12, 2017

NZD/USD has been making corrective bullish moves recently after breaking below the 0.71 level with a non-volatile bearish pressure. NZD has been struggling to keep up with the impulsive pressure from USD despite the recent weakness of USD due to mixed economic reports and sell-offs of the American currency. Today, New Zealand FPI report was published with a negative value at -0.2% from the previous value of 0.6% and Business NZ Manufacturing Index is yet to be published tomorrow which previously was at 57.9. NZD has been going through tougher times recently. As a result, NZD has given in to USD whereas USD is currently not in a good state fundamentally. Recently, FOMC Meeting minutes indicated divisions among Fed policymakers on the next rate hike which is expected to be in December. Moreover, on the USD side, today US CPI report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.4%, Core CPI is expected to be published with an unchanged value of 0.2%, Core Retail Sales report is expected to reveal a significant increase to 0.9% from the previous value of 0.2%, and Retail Sales is also expected to show an increase to 1.7% from the negative value of -0.2%. In the forecasts, the US is expected to present some positive economic reports that is to provide USD with support. So USD is likely to extend gains against NZD. If it happens, NZD/USD is expected to take the price much lower in the coming days due to NZD weakness.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing some impulsive bullish pressure towards the resistance area of 0.7130-70 where the price is expected to reject with a daily close before the price proceeds lower with a target towards 0.6850. As the price progresses towards the resistance area the dynamic level, 20 EMA is also expected to act as a resistance as well. As the price remains below the resistance area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 12, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

Bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Next bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

On the other hand, the price level of 0.7050 should be watched for bullish pullbacks before further bearish decline can occur.

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Bitcoin analysis for 12/10/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 12/10/2017:

Former investment banker Fortress, Michael Novogratz, predicts that within 6 to 10 months Bitcoin will be worth more than $ 10,000. The investor creates a $ 500 million fund that will invest in cryptocurrency, ICOs and blockchain related companies.The former investment fund manager has decided to go all in despite the fact that in his opinion the virtual currency betrayed the signs of a speculative bubble. In 2016, Fortress Investment Group managed alternative assets worth over $ 70 billion. Bitcoin valuations at $ 10,000 may have support in the investor's own convictions - $ 150 million in Galaxy Digital Asset funds will come from his own pocket. The remaining funds will be raised from wealthy investors and other investment fund managers.

It is good to see a representative of the financial world, who positively speaks about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Recently, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, sharply criticized Bitcoin for calling the entire system a scam. In addition, he announced that he would dismiss every employee of the bank who will be trading Bitcoin.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trading at the new all-time highs around the level of $5,171 at the time of writing. The corrective cycle scenario had been invalidated and now the alternative count is in charge. In a case of an upward extension, the next target is seen at the level of $5,472. Please notice the developing bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator.

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The dollar reacted lower by FOMC

The dollar reacted with a decline in the Wednesday night's release of the minutes of the FOMC meeting of September 20. Investors were disappointed by the cautious position of Cabinet members and fears that the period of low inflation in the US economy could drag on.

A one-time rate increase by the end of this year can be considered a matter of solved, on this issue, there is almost a consensus. However, the prospects for the next step in March are now in question, since fears of inflation may force FOMC to postpone another increase until the summer.

Nevertheless, these fears are limited and are unlikely to prevent the dollar from continuing to strengthen.

Eurozone

An impressive landing of the ECB leadership landed in the United States to attend the annual meeting of the World Bank and the IMF. Today in Washington, ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to speak, the members of the board of Pratt and Kere will assist him, tomorrow Lautenschlager and Constantio are expected. Judging by the stated topics of the reports, the ECB management proposes to disclose in detail its vision of the macroeconomic situation in the world and in the euro area, and also intends to substantiate the methods of the monetary policy being pursued. The market may respond to ECB members' comments by increasing volatility, as there is as yet no consensus on the curtailment of incentive policies.

The euro got to the resistance of 1.1880, however for the development of traffic, it needs a new driver. Given the expected markets for positive news from the United States, it seems preferable to sell EUR/USD from the current levels in order to re-test 1.1660.

United Kingdom

The weak pound led to several rather unpleasant consequences for the British economy. The trade deficit in August renewed the record again, increasing by 1.4 billion pounds, and even a slight increase in the trade balance in the services sector could not compensate for a marked decline in trade in goods.

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The growth of industrial production slowed somewhat in August, one of the main reasons is the reduction in the oil and gas sector.

Negotiations on Brexit run into a layer of insoluble contradictions, officials on both sides of the English Channel differently see the process of divorce. Some of the British parliamentarians are calling for the development of an exit plan from the EU without an agreement with the European Union, that is, unilaterally, and begin with the strengthening of customs and migration legislation. Such steps can lead to a full-fledged trade war, and, of course, it would be in the interests of the parties to avoid such a scenario, as the British Finance Minister Hammond called yesterday when speaking in Parliament.

At the same time, the true causes of Brexit begin to manifest themselves. As British Trade Minister Liam Fox said on Wednesday, Plan B envisages, as an option, the accession of Great Britain to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which includes the US, Mexico, and Canada. The market is still skeptical of such statements, considering them rather a way of pressure on partners than a real action plan, but in a pound/euro pair, the pound's prospects are higher if events develop in a negative scenario.

Given the lack of serious macroeconomic news before the end of the week, the pound movements will be of a technical nature, unless, of course, today's comments by one of the Governors of the Bank of England Hammond will not give rise to a reassessment of risks.

The pair EUR/GBP, after failing at the second attempt to overcome the resistance of 0.8990, probably a decrease to 0.8870 / 80 with a subsequent attempt to update a minimum of 0.8750. Against the dollar, the pound's rise is corrective, a new wave of decline from current levels is possible, the medium-term target is 1.2930 / 70.

Oil and the ruble

The oil price was adjusted after the publication of the weekly API report, according to which oil reserves in Cushing increased by 3.1 million barrels, growth is observed for the seventh week in a row and is a bearish factor. At the same time, gasoline inventories declined by 1.58 million barrels, so the decline in quotations was limited.

OPEC, in turn, reported on production in September. Judging by the published figures, OPEC members have withstood their obligations to reduce production, which allows us to hope that the work on the new agreement takes place in a constructive manner. Moreover, OPEC has found the strength to appeal to oil producers with a call to "take on a part of responsibility," which is more evidence of the strength of OPEC at the moment rather than weakness.

The growth of oil is limited by a period of the temporary weakening of the dollar. To continue the growth of the reasons for the fundamental nature is not enough, as long as the trade in the range and the expectation of a new driver is likely.

The ruble continues to trade in the sideways range, the exit from which is more likely to be marked by a new wave of strengthening the Russian currency. Fixing USD/RUR below 57.40 will open the way to 56.70 with the subsequent attempt to develop the offensive.

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Trading plan for 12/10/2017

Trading plan for 12/10/2017:

At night the US Dollar loses to other major currencies. EUR/USD continues to climb in the direction of 1.19, but the scale of the Euro strengthening is the smallest among the major currencies. USD, AUD and NZD are the strongest against USD. USD/JPY is maintained between 112.00 and 112.50. The Wall Street opens with modest gains, so buyers are also setting the tone in Asia.

On Thursday 12th of October, the event calendar is busy with important news releases. During the London session, the UK will post BoE Credit Conditions Survey data and Eurozone will reveal Industrial Production data. During the US session, Canada will post New Housing Price Index data and the US will release PPI data, Unemployment Claims and Continuing Claims data and Crude Oil Inventories data. Plenty of speakers will be active during the US session: ECB President Mario Draghi, FOMC Member Lael Brainard and Jerome Powell, BOC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins and MPC Member Andy Haldane.

EUR./USD analysis for 12/10/2017:

The Eurozone Industrial Production data are scheduled for release at 09:00 am GMT and market participants expect an increase from 0.1% to 0.6% on a monthly basis. The industrial sector contributes to only a quarter of the Eurozone GDP. However, most variations in the GDP come from the industrial sector, whereas other sectors that contribute far more to national output historically have been very consistent regardless of economic cycles. Even with the steady pace of growth that can be observed in the Eurozone currently, the industrial production is in a clear downtrend since its peak in 2016, so even the figures slightly better than expected will not be enough to pick up the output.

Let's now take a look at EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price has hit the 61% Fibo at the level of 1.1876 which is just above the technical resistance at the level of 1.1861. Due to the overbought market conditions, there are some chances for a reversal at the current level and a corrective move towards the nearest technical support at the level of 1.1829 and below. Moreover, this view is supported by a possible Dark Cloud Cover candlestic formation which is still in progress now and needs a close near to the bottom of the current candle to trigger the downside move.

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Market Snapshot: Gold at 38%Fibo

The price of Gold has retraced 38% of the previous swing down and it is currently trading at the level of $1,297 in overbought market conditions. There is a visible bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator which supports the bearish short-term outlook.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil in a narrow zone before the data

The Crude Oil Inventories data are scheduled for release at 03:00 pm GMT and the market awaits the data release as it is trading in a narrow horizontal zone between the levels of $50.60 - $51.41. The market conditions are somewhat overbought, so worse than expected data might pushe the price below the immediate support at the level of $50.20 towards the next technical support at the level of $.50.00.

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Breaking forecast 10/12/2017

Breaking forecast 10/12/2017

The growth of EURUSD will continue.

The main event of Wednesday - the report from the last meeting of the Fed ("minutes" of the Fed) - has not changed the mood of the markets.

The EURUSD rate continued to grow, playing out the diffusion of tension in relations between Catalonia and Madrid.

We expect the continuation of EURUSD's rise to the target of 1.1980.

Still, after significant increase in recent days, it is possible to retreat to 1.1820.

Buy EURUSD from the rollback.

The cancellation signal is the breakthrough below 1.1668.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for October 12, 2017

The Dollar index as expected has made a full-scale reversal since last Friday when we expected for the Dollar to top. Price has broken through cloud support in the short term and is making lower lows and lower highs. Trend is bearish.

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Black rectangle - support (broken)

Yellow rectangle - resistance

The Dollar index has broken below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. Price has moved lower as expected when we were trading around 94. Price justifies a bounce soon but it is important to see if this bounce makes a lower high and gets rejected by the Kumo (cloud) resistance.

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Black lines - bearish channel

The rejection at the upper channel boundary is unfolding. Price has now reached the lower cloud boundary and the kijun-sen indicator (yellow line). This is important support area for the Dollar index. Price could bounce from this area. As long as we are trading inside the bearish channel, I will continue to be bearish expecting new lows in the Dollar index.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for October 12, 2017

Gold price has broken above the Ichimoku cloud in the short term but has also reached important Fibonacci resistance now. As long as price is above $1,260, bulls will be in control of the trend. A pullback with a higher low is justified and would give more strength to the upside momentum.

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In the 4-hour chart, price is above the Kumo. This is a bullish sign. Price has reached the 38% Fibonacci retracement. There are some slight bearish divergence signs in the 4-hour chart by the RSI and this could justify a pullback towards the upper cloud boundary near $1,290-87.

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On a weekly basis, it is positive we are trading above the kijun-sen and the RSI (5) is turning back upwards. Price remains above the Ichimoku cloud and last week's reversal candle pattern is being confirmed this week. So we should expect a weekly move higher maybe to new highs.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 12, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/NZD continues to rally nicely and as expected. We expect minor support at 1.6648 will be able to protect the downside for the next rally higher to 1.6824 that should complete red wave iii/ and set the stage for a shallow sideways consolidation in red wave iv/ before moving higher towards 1.7005 in red wave v/.

R3: 1.7005

R2: 1.6824

R1: 1.6760

Pivot: 1.6648

S1: 1.6623

S2: 1.6563

S3: 1.6490

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6365 and will move our stop higher to 1.6600.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 12, 2017

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Wave summary:

With a little detour to 132.45 wave C moved higher and has now spiked the 133.25 target. We continue to view the entire consolidation since the low of wave A at 131.70 as a corrective B-wave. Corrective B-waves are the most difficult to decipher and trade, because of the multiple different paths they can take, but that does not change our view, that a C-wave decline lower to 130.73 still is needed.

We are looking for a top in wave B between 133.60 - 133.75 for the expected decline in wave C.

R3: 134.24

R2: 133.75

R1: 133.60

Pivot: 133.22

S1: 133.05

S2: 132.45

S3: 131.81

Trading recommendation:

Our sell-order at 132.65 was hit before the rally higher, so we are short EUR from 132.65 with stop placed at 134.45. If you are not short-EUR yet, then sell near 133.60 and use the same stop at 134.40.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 12, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD has now gone upwards by 130 pips. Price is above the support line at 1.1850; going towards the resistance lines at 1.1900, 1.1950 and 1.2000. These are the ultimate targets for the week, for there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart.

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USD/CHF: From the resistance level at 0.9800, this pair has gone downwards, moving below the resistance level at 0.9750. The Williams' % Range period 20 is in the oversold region, and the EMA 11 is almost crossing the EMA 56 to the downside. This is something that would lead to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

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GBP/USD: This currency trading instrument has really continued its rally in the context of a downtrend. The RSI period 14 is above the level 50, generating a bullish signal. Once the EMA crosses the EMA 56 to the upside, which would soon happen, there would be a bullish bias on the market. Further upwards movement is expected.

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USD/JPY: There is an ongoing equilibrium phase in the market. A movement above the supply level at 114.00 would affirm the long-term bullish bias, while a movement below the demand level at 111.00 would result in bearish bias. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they would have an impact on the market.

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EUR/JPY: A bullish signal has been generated on the EUR/JPY. Momentum has risen in the market and it is now in favor of bulls, as price moves upwards by 130 pips, now close to the supply zone at 133.50. Price could also reach other supply levels at 134.00, 134.50 and 135.00.

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EUR/USD continues to rise strongly and is approaching major resistance, remain bearish

We remain bearish with price testing two major Fibonacci retracement levels at 50% and 61.8% where we expect a reaction from. We adjust our stop loss to 1.1948 right above the gap to give this trade a bit more breathing space. The goal is to continue to sell below 1.1878 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, bearish divergence) for a strong reaction off this level to push price down to at least 1.1752 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support)

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance at 95% along with bearish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is impending.

Sell below 1.1878. Stop loss is at 1.1948. Take profit is at 1.1529.

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GBP/USD close to major resistance, prepare to sell

The price has continued to rise nicely to our major resistance area as expected. We prepare to sell on major resistance at 1.3269 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) and we expect a strong reaction off this level to push the price down to at least 1.3032 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 98% where we expect a reaction from.

Sell below 1.3269. Stop loss is at 1.3357. Take profit is at 1.3032.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 12, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Industrial Production m/m and French Final CPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Federal Budget Balance, 30-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, Natural Gas Storage, Core PPI m/m, Unemployment Claims, and PPI m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1921.

Strong Resistance:1.1914.

Original Resistance: 1.1903.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1892.

Target Inner Area: 1.1864.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1836.

Original Support: 1.1825.

Strong Support: 1.1814.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1807.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Oct 12, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Tertiary Industry Activity m/m, PPI y/y, and Bank Lending y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Federal Budget Balance, 30-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, Natural Gas Storage, Core PPI m/m, Unemployment Claims, and PPI m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 112.96.

Resistance. 2: 112.74.

Resistance. 1: 112.52.

Support. 1: 112.25.

Support. 2: 112.03.

Support. 3: 111.81.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for October 12, 2017

The index is consolidating below the 200 SMA at H1 chart and it's being supported by the 93.00 level, at which a breakout should expose the next target lying around 91.67. The overall structure is sideways and that's why we should be cautious when placing new orders at this stage. MACD indicator remains in the negative territory, favoring to the bears.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.04 / 94.58

H1 chart's support levels: 93.00 / 91.67

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 94.04, take profit is at 94.58 and stop loss is at 93.50.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 12, 2017

The pair is finding resistance around the 1.3195 level and it's trying to do a pullback, as the 200 SMA coincides with that area, giving dynamic resistance across the board. If that happens, we might expect a decline to test the support level of 1.3037. With a breakout higher, GBP/USD could be looking for the 1.3309 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3195 / 1.3309

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3037 / 1.2914

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3037, take profit is at 1.2914 and stop loss is at 1.3161.

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Gold reads on the lips of the Fed

After a prolonged fall in September, gold returns to the game and grows over three trading sessions in a row amid growing uncertainty around North Korea and Catalonia. Russian officials assured that it is ready to launch a long-range missile after the visit to Pyongyang. Moreover, the President of Catalonia signed the Declaration of Independence. Simultaneously, Catalonia postponed its own action with the purpose of negotiations with Madrid. All of these bring confusion to the market and increase the demand for safe haven assets. On the hand of the "bulls" of the XAU / USD pair, the correction of the US dollar rate in the first half of the autumn will also be a factor.

It is the weakness of the dollar, due to the disappointment with Donald Trump's policy and the lack of confidence in the third increase in the federal funds rate in 2017, that allowed the precious metal to soar to its maximum mark for the year. Nevertheless, the joy of the "bulls" was short-lived. The tax reform which was brought to public attention, the return to the markets of the idea of reflationary trade, and the growing probability of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening in 2017, caused gold to lose about 6% its value from 31% to 88%. The situation painfully resembles the one that emerged after the presidential elections in the US last autumn. Then the faith of investors in the dispersal of the US economy to 3% lowered the price of XAU / USD by 10%. Is history repeating itself?

Dynamics of gold and the US dollar

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Source: Financial Times.

The "bulls" believe that this is not so. In their opinion, it's extremely reckless to talk about restoring the uptrend on the USD index. The indicator reached a 14-year high in early 2017 due to the divergence in the monetary policy of the Fed and other central banks issuing currencies for G10. Currently, the acceleration of the global economy to 3.6-3.7% (the IMF forecast for 2017-2018), the victory over deflation, and the improvement of the situation in labor markets around the world created a solid foundation for raising rates in other countries. Yes, gold plunged into an unfavorable environment for itself, when the Fed is turned a blind eye to sluggish inflation and continued the cycle of normalizing monetary policy. This led to an increase in the real yield of bonds. However, Washington has repeatedly stressed its desire for a slow process of monetary restriction, and Donald Trump does not hide that he is a supporter of low interest rates and a weak dollar. This allows us to hope for the recovery of the upward trend in the XAU / USD pair to overcome the $ 1400 per ounce mark in 2018.

The "bears" in gold, by contrast, believe in a happy resolution of the conflicts around North Korea and Catalonia, and the situation in the US economy. If the GDP really accelerates to 3%, then the Fed can raise the rate with a clear conscience to 2.75% or higher. This is because the faster the GDP, the more cost-effective the investment projects should be.

Technically, the breakthrough of the upward trading channel returns the hope of restoring the "bullish" trend in precious metals. Nevertheless, in order to confirm the seriousness of their intentions, buyers should take by storm the resistance at $ 1298-1302 per ounce and keep the quotes above it.

Gold, daily chart

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Breaking forecast 10/11/2017

Breaking forecast 10/11/2017

Catalonia fueled the rise of EURUSD.

On Tuesday evening, the head of Catalonia said that he was postponing proclamation of independence. The embers of the Catalan Parliament signed a declaration of independence - but it has no legal force. The authorities of Catalonia withdrew, faced with strong resistance from both the Spanish authorities and opponents of independence inside Catalonia - both among citizens and among businesses.

The EU firmly stated that it would not accept Catalonia in the EU if the exit from Spain would not be backed by an agreement with Madrid.

One way or another, the dissolution of the crisis around Catalonia has strengthened the euro. The EURUSD rate touched the significant level of 1.1835 on Wednesday morning and is now being corrected.

It is expected that EURUSD will rise to the target of 1.1980. Buy euro for this target.

Alternative and signal cancellation - breakthrough down 1.1668 - from this level, sell.

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BITCOIN Analysis for October 11, 2017

Bitcoin has been quite corrective with the gains yesterday as it proceeds towards the $5,000 resistance area. After the price broke above the $4,386.80 resistance level the price has surged higher without any noticeable retracement along the way. There has been nothing going on fundamentally, the market sentiment seems to be not very confident about the progress towards the $5,000 price level. The Bitcoin gain has been quite steady, but the bullish pressure is still quite strong in nature, which is expected to push the price higher sooner or later. Currently, the price is in a corrective range trying to break upwards to the $5,000 level after retesting the $4,700 price level. The price is currently residing above the $4,386.80 support level, as the price remains above this level the bullish bias is expected to continue further in the coming days.

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