Simplified Wave Analysis. Overview of the GBP / USD for October 31

Wave pattern graphics H4:

The perspective direction of the short-term movement of the major sets the rising wave of August 15th. In the last 2 months, the price forms a correctional part (B).

Wave pattern graphics H1:

From September 20, a downward wave zigzag is formed. The price pushed through the zone of expected completion, extending to the next control line.

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Wave pattern graphics M15:

The descending section of October 12 completes the bearish model of watch TF. The price has reached the upper boundary of the large-scale support zone.

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Recommended trading strategy:

The price of the pair is at the potential reversal zone, where the probability of changing the direction of the price movement is high. It is recommended to track the instrument purchase signals.

Resistance zones:

- 1.2920 / 1.2970

Support areas:

- 1.2690 / 1.2640

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, 3 main TFs are used, on each, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for October 31. The pound has nothing to oppose the US dollar

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Wave counting analysis:

During the October 30 trading session, the GBP / USD currency pair lost about 80 basis points and continues to build a complex wave c. The internal wave structure of wave c with a five waveform with a clear elongation in wave 3. Thus, the current wave pattern implies a rather strong decline of the pair. A successful attempt to break through the 161.8% of the Fibonacci mark indicates that the pair is ready for a further fall. The lack of positive news on Brexit plays into the hands of the sellers of the British currency.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3258 - 0.0% of Fibonacci (formal goal)

1.3300 - 161.8% of Fibonacci (formal goal)

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2638 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)

1.2592 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to build a bearish wave, which takes a very long look. As before, the new sales of the pair are now quite risky, despite the fact that the news background is clearly in favor of the currency of America, and the wave c has already assumed a rather complicated look. Nevertheless, the pair continues to decline with targets located near the marks of 1.2638 and 1.2592. Already open sales recommend keeping open, for example, until an unsuccessful attempt to break through one of the target marks.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for October 31. The potential for the euro to fall remains

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Wave counting analysis:

In the course of trading on Tuesday, the EUR / USD currency pair lost another 30 basis points and thus completed the construction of the proposed wave 4, in the future wave c. If this is true, the decline in quotations will continue with targets located near the estimated Fibonacci level of 161.8%. The internal wave structure of wave c takes the 5th waveform, thus, I expect to build a wave 5. The news background is not in favor of the euro (GDP report), thus, the pair continues to remain within the working version.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1327 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

1.1194 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1522 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

1.1432 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair turned to build wave 5, c. Thus, now I recommend re-selling the pair with a view to reducing quotes with targets near the mark of 1.1194. A successful attempt to break through the mark of 1.1327 will give confidence in the readiness of the pair to continue to decline. An unsuccessful attempt will lead to a departure of quotes from the lows reached.

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EUR: Eurozone inflation data may push euro even lower

The euro continues to be under pressure amid weak fundamental data for the eurozone. The US dollar, on the contrary, enjoys demand in times of uncertainty, since the prospects are clearer. Most likely, the US Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates on the background of good macroeconomic statistics, which has recently delighted traders.

According to the data, the indicator of confidence of American consumers in October of this year has once again grown and reached a maximum level in two decades. Consumers continue to expect that strong growth in the economy will continue, as will the creation of new jobs.

According to the report of the Conference Board, the consumer confidence index in October 2018 rose to 137.9 points, while economists had expected the index to be 136 points in October. The Conference Board noted that strong employment growth has a positive effect on consumers' assessment of current conditions.

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The annual growth rate of housing prices in the US slowed down a bit in August, which may temporarily allow you to avoid overheating in the real estate market. According to the data, prices for the current year fell below 6%. Lower prices indicate a slowdown in the real estate market, which is likely to continue.

According to the report, the national house price index in August rose by 5.8% compared with the same period of the previous year, after rising by 6% in July. The rise in prices is gradually slowing down due to falling demand, which was largely affected by the increase in US interest rates this year.

Important Inflation Data in the Eurozone

Today, it is necessary to pay attention to the report on inflation in the euro area, which could push the European currency even lower. Economists expect the CPI to rise by 2.2% in October this year, after rising 2.1% in September. An increase in core inflation is expected to be at 1.1%. If the data turns out to be worse than economists' forecasts, this may affect the plans of the European Central Bank, which may reconsider its attitude towards the future of monetary policy.

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A report was released yesterday in Germany, where consumer prices in October grew faster than expected. According to the Federal Statistics Bureau Destatis, the CPI of Germany in October 2018 rose by 0.2% compared with the previous month and by 2.5% compared with the same period of the previous year. Economists had forecast that prices would rise by 0.1%, and 2.4%, respectively. Annual growth rates in Germany in October reached a level of 2.8%.

Inflation, calculated according to EU standards, showed an increase of 0.1% compared with the previous month and 2.4% compared with the same period of the previous year, while economists had expected a monthly increase in the harmonized index of 0.1%.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, the prospects for the upward correction are rather vague. Most likely, the bears will continue to crush the euro until Thursday, playing a rapid fall at the beginning of the new month. The breakthrough of support for 1.1335 will lead to a new wave of large sales with a minimum of 1.1300 and 1.1250. In the case of an upward correction in a trading instrument, large resistance levels will be traced in the range of 1.1370 and 1.1400.

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Trading Plan 10/31/2018

Trading Plan 10/31/2018

The overall picture: We are waiting for reports on the United States.

Political news has little effect on the market. The news about the departure of Merkel from the post of party leader did not bother the market. Approaching elections to the US Congress (midterm elections) also slightly affects prices.

It is likely that the market is looking at the approach of the Fed meeting on November 7 and analyzes the news from this point of view.

In the next three days, there will be important reports on the US. Today, report on the ADP employment will be published. On Friday, nonfarm. On Thursday, ISM index.

The main question is whether the dollar rate will be raised on November 7?

Pound: our selling position from 1.2920 has fully worked out. A profit of about 200 points in a 4-digit right now. You can fix. New level down the pound yet. Upwards, there is no correct level closer than 1.3260.

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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for October 31. Bullish divergence warns of another pullback

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair continues the process of falling in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.1303 after the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator. On October 31, there is a brewing bullish divergence at the indicator MACD. The education will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1422. Rebounding quotes from the Fibo level of 100.0% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of the pair's growth. Fixing the rate under the correction level of 100.0% will increase the likelihood of a further fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1162.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the process of falling quotations also continues, in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285. The rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 127.2% will make it possible to expect a turn in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. There are no maturing divergences on this chart. Fixing quotations below the Fibo level of 127.2% will work in favor of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair with a target of 1.1422 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 100.0% if the pair bounces the 1.1303 correction level or when a bullish divergence is formed.

New sales of the EUR / USD currency pair will be possible with the goal of 1.1162 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 100.0%, if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.1303.

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Analysis of the GBP / USD Divergences for October 31. The British pound can roll back from the local minimum

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD quotes continue to fall after the formation of a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator. Today, a new divergence is emerging at the MACD indicator, which allows you to count on the pair reversal in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2813. The end of the course from the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.2662 will similarly allow you to expect some growth. But fixing the quotes below the Fibo level of 100.0% will make it possible to expect a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.2487.

The Fibo grid was built according to extremums of August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair fixed under the correctional level of 161.8% - 1.2718. As a result, the fall in quotations can be continued on October 31 in the direction of the next Fibo level of 200.0% - 1.2590. None of the indicators have maturing divergences on the current chart. Fixing the course of the pair above the correction level of 161.8% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the pound sterling and one can expect some growth in the direction of the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.2833.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from October 4, 2018, and October 12, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.2833 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 161.8% if the pair closes above 1.2718 (hourly chart).

You can sell the GBP / USD currency pair now with a target of 1.2590 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 161.8%, as the pair completed the closing below the correction level of 1.2718 (hourly chart).

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Euro has bad prospects

Eurozone GDP data released on Tuesday showed a significant decline, indicating that the European economy was probably at its peak of growth, which could also indicate that the global economy began to slow down after a noticeable rise in the wake of a decade-old growth after the hardest crisis of 2008-09.

The presented data showed a strong drop in GDP growth in the third quarter in annual terms to 1.7% against the forecast of a decline to 1.9% from 2.2%. The quarterly value of the macro indicator showed an increase of only 0.2% versus 0.4% earlier. This is the third recent data that clearly indicate that the world's largest economies have stopped growing and may have already begun to decline, not only against the background of the end of the ten-year economic cycle, but also, probably, under the influence of trade wars that were in the spring years inspired by the United States.

At first, according to previously published data, the Chinese economy began to show a slowdown, then the States joined this process, and on Tuesday, it became clear that big Europe in the form of the eurozone could not avoid it. Against the background of this event, and also influenced by the news that A. Merkel, the current German chancellor, is leaving the post of head of her party, the single currency was under pressure.

In our opinion, if the slowdown of the European economy continues, the ECB will face a practically insoluble problem that simply may not allow the bank to begin the process of raising interest rates, as the Fed has done in the past few years. Recall that the European regulator decided only to stop stimulating measures (QE), but it will be difficult for it to start the interest rate increase cycle next year due to the likely decline in economic growth, which could cause the region to slip into the "deflationary pit" following the example of this happened to the Japanese economy in the 90s of the twentieth century. In this case, the ECB will find it extremely difficult to solve crisis problems, which will unambiguously arise on the wave of a fall in economic growth simply by lowering the cost of borrowing, since they are already at zero, and the deposit rate of the regulator is negative.

Taking into account such prospects, we believe that the European currency can start serious problems with the prospect of exchange rate growth, primarily against the US dollar.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair EUR / USD is trading at the level of 1.1340. It is under pressure due to the slowdown of economic growth in the euro area and the fall in the prospects that the ECB will raise interest rates next year. Fixing the price below this mark may lead to its fall to 1.1300, and then to 1.1250.

The currency pair GBP / USD is trading at the level of 1.2700. It is experiencing problems due to Brexit's unresolved, as well as a clear inhibition of economic growth in Britain and a decrease in inflationary pressure, which reduces the likelihood of an increase in interest rates by the Bank of England in the near foreseeable future. Against this background, if the pair consolidates below 1.2700, there is a chance that it will continue to fall to 1.2660 and 1.2600.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for the currency pair GBP / USD for October 31, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, the price will move up with the first goal of 1.2732, the resistance line (red thin line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis is neutral;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, the price will move up, with the first goal of 1.2732, the resistance line (red thin line). At 13.15 London time, strong news comes out.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for the EUR / USD currency pair for October 31, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, the downward trend is expected to continue with the first goal, the lower fractal of 1.1337 and further down to the support line of 1.1269 (blue thin line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis is neutral;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly chart - down.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, the market will continue to move down, with the first goal, the lower fractal of 1.1337 and further down to the support line of 1.1269 (blue thin line).

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Forecast for USD / JPY for October 31, 2018

USD / JPY

We had little hope for the growth of the Japanese currency. Yesterday, the yen made a feat, with the support of the stock market, the yen broke out over strong technical resistances and this morning, it made the actual consolidation over all the graphics and indicator lines on a daily scale. Also, the Marlin oscillator signal line has moved to the zone of positive numbers, to the growth zone of the trend.

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Yesterday, the unemployment rate in Japan in September showed a decline from 2.4% to 2.3%, to the May 1993 figure. Industrial production in the September estimate showed a decline of -1.1% this morning (the forecast was -0.3%), but after yesterday's success and today's meeting of the Bank of Japan, investors ignored this data. The Bank of Japan has maintained a neutral line.

We are waiting for the growth of the yen to the nearest embedded line of the price channel in the area of 114.75.

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Technical analysis for Gold for October 31, 2018

Technical outlook:

A 4H chart has been presented here to give a medium-term trend outlook for Gold. The metal is seen to be trading between $1,212/13 levels for now and should find support anywhere near this price. Please note that Gold is trading very close to fibonacci 50% of recent rally and a bullish reversal here should be quite encouraging to open long positions. On the other side, a drop lower towards $1,204 levels also cannot be ruled out as it is the fibonacci 0.618 support. In either case we would consider long positions to be held from yesterday or initiate fresh ones around the current price action after a bullish candlestick pattern confirms it. Major price support is seen at $1,182.50 levels. Until prices stay above that, the outlook remains bullish.

Trading plan:

Remain long for now, stop below $1204, target $1260

Good luck!

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Forecast for EUR / USD pair on October 31, 2018

GBP / USD pair

On Tuesday, the British pound lost 85 points due to the general strengthening of the dollar with optimism in the stock markets. The S & P500 grew by 1.57% and the dollar index by 0.32%. The balance of retail sales in the UK from CBI in October collapsed from 23 to 5 against expectations of growth by 27 points. Now the movement of the British currency may be slowed down due to the expectations of investors of tomorrow's meeting of the Bank of England on monetary policy. It is expected that it will be similar to the previous of a neutral tone since the political conditions regarding Brexit did not changed.

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We look forward to the reduction of the British pound in support of the embedded line of the declining price channel in the weekly timeframe (1.2620). There are no reversal signs on the H4 chart.

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Forecast for EUR / USD pair on October 31, 2018

EUR / USD pair

On Tuesday, the technical background to the euro decline was supported by economic data. The GDP of the euro area was only 0.2% for the 3rd quarter against the forecast of 0.4%. The US consumer confidence index from the Conference Board in October grew from 135.3 to 137.9 while the forecast was 136.3. As a result, the euro lost 27 points. Also, the Marlin oscillator showed the probability of a correction on the H4 timeframe. Then today, there is not a single sign for such a correction. The price is falling and the closest target is at least .1300 on August 15. Fixing below the said level will open a new round target 1.1200.

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Good economic data for the eurozone is expected today. The forecast for retail sales in Germany is 0.5% for the month of September. Meanwhile, the CPI for the euro area is 2.2% in October against 2.1% in September, but similar indices for other economic regions that were already released cast doubt on current forecasts.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for October 31, 2018

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On September 13, the depicted daily downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090 failed to offer enough bearish pressure on the pair. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout so far.

On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish within the depicted H4 bearish channel to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2970 (50% Fibo level) enhanced further bearish decline towards 1.2790 where the lower limit of the movement channel and 79.8% Fibonacci Level are located.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looks oversold around the current price levels (1.2700). BUY entries are preferred at the current situation (the lower limit of the depicted H4 channel).

As for the bullish breakout scenario to remain valid, bullish persistence above 1.2790 (the depicted channel upper limit) and an early breakout above 1.3000 (50% Fibo level) are mandatory to maintain sufficient bullish momentum towards 1.3200.

On the other hand, the current bearish persistence below 1.2790 allows a further decline towards 1.2695 and 1.2660. That's why, price action should be watched around the price level of 1.2790 (79.8% Fibo level) for further trading decisions.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 31, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On September 10, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750). However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

On October 10, a recent decline below 1.1520 found its way towards the price level of 1.1420.

However, temporary bullish recovery around 1.1430 pushed the EUR/USD pair above 1.1520 until a bearish breakdown of 1.1520 occurred again on October 17.

Hence, a descending high was established around 1.1600 enhancing the bearish side of the market.

As for the bearish side of the market to remain dominant, the EUR/USD pair should pursue trading below the price level of 1.1400.

The current bearish breakout has initial targets around 1.1275 and probably 1.1100 if sufficient bearish pressure is demonstrated.

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the European session on October 31. Bears fail the market even more

To open long positions on EUR/USD pair, you need:

The weak report on the eurozone's GDP was hurt yesterday by the euro and can add "fuel to the fire" today due to the increase in inflation data. The decline will lead to the fall of the euro. You can count on euro purchases only when a false breakdown forms in the region of 1.1337 under the scenario of a good report on the consumer price index. In this case, the goal will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1365, which will lead to an upward correction to the area of 1.1395 maximum, where fixing profits are recommended in the region of 1.1337 under the scenario of a good report on the consumer price index. n this case, the goal will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1365, which will lead to an upward correction to the area of 1.1395 maximum, where fixing profits are recommended In the case of a decline below the level of 1.1337, traders of long positions in euro can return after updating the minimums of 1.1300 and 1.1251.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

If you want to go ahead, you'll be able to make a statement. and 1.1251, where fixing profits are recommended. In the case of growth above the resistance of 1.1365, it is expected for short positions to return today to the rebound from the level of 1.1395 against the background of good data on inflation in the Eurozone.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted under the 30-day and 50-day average, which indicates a continuation of the downward trend in the euro.

Bollinger bands

As long as the trade is conducted below the Bollinger Bands indicator middle line, the pressure on the euro will continue which is located in the area of 1.1349. The breakthrough at the bottom line of the indicator near 1.1329 will only increase pressure on the euro.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the European session on October 31. Downtrend persists

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

There's nothing buyers can do change the situation on the market. Today, it is possible to expect an upward correction on the pound in the case of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2697 or after a breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2738, where the 30-day moving average runs. Only after this, the demand for the pound may increase, which will lead to an update of the highs of 1.2781 and 1.2839, where taking profits are recommended. In the case of a further reduction in the trend below the level of 1.2697, long positions can only be considered after updating the levels of 1.2663 and 1.2625.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

A break of the lower border of the upward correctional channel (on the green chart) or consolidation below 1.2697 support will push the British pound even lower, which will lead to the continuation of the downward trend with the update of the new monthly lows of 1.2663 and 1.2625, where fixing profits are recommended. An unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above resistance 1.2738 will also be a signal to open short positions in a pound. Otherwise, you can sell GBP / USD at a rebound from the maximum of 1.2781.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted under the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates the continuation of the downward trend in the pound.

Bollinger bands

The lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator located around 1.2677 will try to limit the downside potential in the pound. A breakthrough of which will only increase the pressure on the pair. In the case of GBP / USD growth, the upper limit in the 1.2745 area will limit the upward potential.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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NZD/JPY Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal

NZD/JPY is approaching its resistance at 74.35 (100% Fibonacci extension x2, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 73.60 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reversal is expected.

NZD/JPY is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 74.35. Stop loss 74.82. Take profit at 73.60.

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USD/CHF Testing Resistance, Prepare For Reversal

USD/CHF is testing its resistance at 1.0056 (100% & 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where a reversal to its support at 1.0001 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) is expected.

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) has reversed off its resistance at 97% where a corresponding drop is expected.

USD/CHF is testing its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 1.0056. Stop loss at 1.0108. Take profit at 1.0001.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for October 31, 2018

AUD/JPY has been showed impressive bullish gains, following certain corrections below 80.50 area. AUD is facing challenges and mixed economic reports. AUD managed to gain certain momentum over JPY which is expected to reward in further gains in the process.

Recently Australia's Building Approvals report was published with an increase to 3.3% from the previous value of -8.1% but it failed to meet the expectation of 3.8%. Today Australia's CPI report was published unchanged at 0.4% which was expected to increase to 0.5%, Trimmed Mean CPI report was published unchanged as expected at 0.4%, and Private Sector Credit decreased to 0.4% as expected from the previous value of 0.5%. Ahead of the Trade Balance and Retail Sales reports which are due later this week and expected to be unchanged and indecisive, AUD may struggle a bit further in the process.

On the other hand, ahead of macroeconomic reports and events today, JPY's weakness indicates the opportunity of bullish momentum with sustainability. Today Japan's Prelim Industrial Production report was published with a decrease to -1.1% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at -0.3%. Moreover, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to leave the key policy rate unchanged at -0.10%. The Monetary Statement, Outlook report and Press Conference justifying the unchanged value of interest rate for the economy. Though Japan's banks are doing quite well, the recent warning from BOJ about settling down a bit provided certain negative bias of JPY bulls.

Meanwhile, JPY struggle amid the economic reports ahead of Policy Report and Monetary Statement indicates further weakness against AUD. The outcome of the BOJ Press Conference will determine a further direction of the pair. If Japan fails to provide upbeat economic reports, AUD is likely to extend its gains in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. After certain Divergence and Convergence below 80.50 area, the price recently pushed higher having Bullish Continuous Divergence leading the price towards the edge of 80.50 area again. As per current price structure, the price is expected to move higher towards 80.50. A break above this level is expected to provide the required push for the price to move higher with a target towards 82.00 and later towards 83.50 area. As the price remains above 78.50 area with a daily close, certain bullish pressures may be observed in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 78.50

RESISTANCE: 80.50, 82.00, 83.50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for October 31, 2018

AUD/USD has been quite volatile and corrective between the area 0.7050 to 0.7151 for a few weeks in a row after an impulsive non-volatile bearish trend. USD has been dominating AUD since the start of the year. USD is still able to maintain momentum despite some economic headwinds.

AUD has been struggling for gains amid the recent economic reports which fell short of expectations. As a result, the price growth is capped. Recently Australia's Building Approvals report was published with an increase to 3.3% from the previous value of -8.1% but it failed to meet the expectation of 3.8%. Today Australia's CPI report was published unchanged at 0.4% which was expected to increase to 0.5%, Trimmed Mean CPI report was published unchanged as expected at 0.4% and Private Sector Credit decreased to 0.4% as expected from the previous value of 0.5%. Ahead of the Trade Balance and Retail Sales reports which are due later this week, AUD may struggle a bit further in the process.

On the USD side, ahead of the NFP reports to be published on Friday, USD has been quite positive with the recent economic reports. Recently CB Consumer Confidence was published with an increase to 137.9 from the previous figure of 135.3 which was expected to be at 136.3. Today ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 188k from the previous figure of 230k, Employment Cost Index is expected to increase to 0.7% from the previous value of 0.6%, Chicago PMI is expected to decrease to 60.1 from the previous figure of 60.4, and Crude Oil Inventories is also expected to decrease to 3.6M from the previous figure of 6.3M.

Meanwhile, Australia provided worse-than-expected economic reports even today which are certainly bearish for the Australian currency. On the other hand, USD found support from upbeat economic reports from the US. Analysts assume firm figures in the reports today. Moreover, the US Labor Department is due to release reports of major importance on Friday which are also expected to be quite mixed and indecisive. To sum up, USD has better chances to sustain gains against AUD.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite bearish despite the recent bullish impulsive pressure yesterday. After downbeat economic reports from Australia, USD managed to extend a rally. However, because of the recent formation of Bullish Divergence in price, there are certain chances of price climbing higher which may push the price above 0.7150 area towards 0.7300 area. As the price remains above 0.7050 area, there are certain chances of a strong bullish counter-move.

SUPPORT: 0.7050

RESISTANCE: 0.7150, 0.7300

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Bitcoin analysis for October 31, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found a symmetrical triangle in creation, which is a sign of potential downward continuation. In the background I found strong supply and strong bearish momentum, it seems that symmetrical triangle is only a part of consolidation for the further downside continuation. Watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $6.173.

Support/Resistance

$6.260 – Intraday resistance

$6.220– Intraday support

$6.173 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of Gold for October 31, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,215.00 and reached my yesterday's target. Anyway, according to the H4 time – frame, I have found that key support ($1,215.00) in on the test and that Gold got trouble to break it, which is a sign that selling at this stage looks risky. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities if you see a breakout of the supply trendline. The upward target is set at the price of $1,230.80. Anyway, if you see breakout of the key support, watch for further downside.

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GBP/USD analysis for October 31, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2747. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found the bullish breakout of the 11-hour balance, which is a sign that buyers are in control today. I have also found that price broke the most recent resistance trendline, which is another sign of the strength. GBP/USD is trading inside of the downward channel and the breakout of channel will confirm a further upward movement. Watch for buying opportunities. Take profit level is set at the price of 1.2845.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for October 31, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot point: 0.7107

The AUD/USD pair faced resistance at the level of 0.7146, while minor resistance is seen at 0.7107 (Pivot point). Support is found at the levels of 0.7043 and 0.6980. Also, it should be noted that a daily pivot point has already set at the level of 0.7107. Equally important, the AUD/USD pair is still moving around the key level at 0.7107, which represents a daily pivot in the H1 time frame at the moment. The AUD/USD pair continued to move upwards from the level of 0.7043. The pair rose from the level of 0.7043 (this level of 0.7043 coincides with the double bottom) to the top around 0.7146. In consequence, the AUD/USD pair broke resistance, which turned strong support at the level of 0.7146. The level of 0.7043 is expected to act as major support today. From this point, we expect the AUD/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 0.7043 towards the target level of 0.7146. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.7146, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 0.7146 in order to reach the second target at 0.7179. However, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.7043, then this scenario may be invalidated.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 31, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9951. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.9951, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9951, which coincides with the daily pivot point. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend.

According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9951 and 1.0058. So, the support stands at 0.9951, while daily resistance is found at 1.0058. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0058. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0058/0.9951with the first target at the level of 1.0142; and continue towards 1.0216. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0058 today, the market will decline further to 0.9860.

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Technical analysis: Intraday levels for EUR/USD, Oct 31, 2018

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Unemployment Rate, Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, Spanish Flash GDP q/q, French Prelim CPI m/m, and German Retail Sales m/m. The US will release a series of macroeconomic reports such as Crude Oil Inventories, Chicago PMI, Employment Cost Index q/q, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So, amid such a busy economic calendar, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1402.

Strong Resistance:1.1395.

Original Resistance: 1.1384.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1373.

Target Inner Area: 1.1346.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1319.

Original Support: 1.1308.

Strong Support: 1.1297.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1290.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Trading plan for 31/10/2018

At the end of the month, the Asian stock market is trying to get out of the 20-month lows, taking clues from Wall Street, where indexes have gained 1.4-1.8%. Chinese Shanghai Composite is growing 1.2% and Japanese Nikkei225 gaining 2.2%.

The PMI index for the Chinese industry in October fell to 50.2 from 50.8 in September, stronger than the forecast drop to 50.6. The market, however, hopes that fears about slowing China will be dispelled by the Beijing authorities announcing support for the economy.

In the foreign exchange market, the USD maintained its strength, but the changes are generally not large. EUR / USD is holding on to 1.1340 and GBP / USD has stopped before 1.27.

AUD went down after worse than expected CPI reading from Australia. In the third quarter, the price increase amounted to 0.4% q /q, by 0.1 percentage point below consensus. This is the eighth consecutive year when CPI falls below forecasts. AUD / USD bounced from the daily lows at 0.7070 up to 0.7095.

Crude oil prices bounce slightly after yesterday's breakdown to months lows. The market is currently paying more attention to the risk of increasing supply and declining demand under the influence of trade wars. WTI gains 0.5% and is up to 66.5 USD / b. There was no more reaction when the API report was published, which pointed to an increase in crude oil inventories by 5.7 million barrels last week. Estimates before today's DoE report show an increase of 3.1 million barrels.

On Wednesday, the 31st of October, the event calendar is very busy with important data releases. During the London session, Germany will post Retail Sales data, France will present Consumer Price Index data and the Eurozone will post Unemployment Rate and Consumer Price Index data. During the NY session, Canada will post GDP data and the US will present ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index data and Crude Oil Inventories data. There are speeches scheduled for today from SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan, BOC Governor Stephen Poloz and BOC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins.

USD/JPY analysis for 31/10/2018:

USD / JPY goes to 113.20 and uses the Nikkei225 rally. On the negative side of the data for the yen, September industrial output from Japan dropped by 1.1% m / m (against -0.3% expected). The decision of the Bank of Japan went unnoticed - the bank kept the policy parameters unchanged, but it lowered the GDP forecast for the current fiscal year and the CPI forecast for the years 2018-2021.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken through the technical resistance at the level of 112.89 and made a new local high at the level of 113.30, just in the middle of the resistance zone located between the levels of 113.28 - 133.38. The next target for bulls is the 61% Fibo retracement of the previous swing down located at the level of 113.42, but the market conditions are now overbought, so a short-term pullback towards the level of 113.00 is now possible. Please notice the strong momentum supports the bullish bias.

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Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Oct 31, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the Housing Starts y/y, Consumer Confidence, BOJ Outlook Report, BOJ Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, and Prelim Industrial Production m/m. The US will release the a series of macroeconomic data such as Crude Oil Inventories, Chicago PMI, Employment Cost Index q/q, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So, amid such a busy economic calendar, the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3: 113.87

Resistance 2: 113.64

Resistance 1: 113.42

Support 1: 113.15

Support 2: 112.93

Support 3: 112.71

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for AUD/USD for October 31, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The short-term hourly chart depicted here signals that bulls are on their way towards 0.7200 levels soon. Please note that the wave structure remains optimistic for bulls after prices broke above the trendline resistance and also took off initial resistance at 0.7110 earlier. The subsequent swing drop was also seen through fibonacci 0.618 support at 0.7050 levels. Ideally, we can expect AUD/USD to remain in control of bulls until prices stay above 0.7020 levels going forward. The scenario of a re-test of 0.7050 levels is still valid. Please consider that event as yet another buying opportunity. Looking into a medium-term outlook, the AUD/USD pair looks like it is going to resume its corrective rally towards at least 0.7370 levels if not further.

Trading plan:

Remain long, stop below 0.7020, target above 0.7350.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis for GBP/USD for October 31, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The daily chart view has been again presented here for GBP/USD to have a medium-term trend outlook. The GBP/USD pair is seen to be trading close to 1.2700 levels at the moment in writing, printing yet another fresh low from yesterday. Please note that the previous swing low was seen at 1.2668 levels and we could see a possible bullish reversal ahead of the same. Looking into the entire wave structure, the drop from 1.4380 through 1.2668 levels can still be considered to be the first swing/wave lower. It should be ideally followed by a corrective rally, unfolding into 3 smaller waves. We therefore remain optimistic about a bullish turn from around current levels. Kindly watch out for any lows today as a potential buying opportunity.

Trading plan:

Aggressively long. Stop below 1.2650, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis for USD/CHF for October 31, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The daily chart view has been presented here to provide a larger picture of the waves. USD/CHF is seen to be trading at 1.0052, at this moment of writing, just shy by a few pips from the previous swing highs at 1.0068 levels. If prices fail to break above its previous swing resistance, the USD/CHF pair is expected to drop sharply lower and target below 0.9550 in the coming weeks. On the flip side, a consistent break above 1.0068 could trigger a further higher high before finding resistance, though the scenario seems to be more probable for a bearish reversal, looking at how USD is placed against major currencies at this time. Also the risk/reward ratio seems to be excellent on the short side.

Trading plan:

Aggressively short, stop above 1.0085 target remains open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis for USD/JPY for October 31, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The 4H chart presented here is clearly indicating that after breaking the line of resistance USD/JPY also took off resistance at 112.89 levels yesterday. The currency pair is stalling at fibonacci 0.50 of the entire drop between 114.50 and 111.40 levels respectively. There may be a drop seen towards 112.00/20 levels, backside of resistance turned into the support trendline, before pushing higher towards 113.30 levels. Please note that 113.30/40 level is the fibonacci 0.618 resistance as discussed yesterday and remains highly probable turning point. Going forward, prices are expected to remain below 114.50 levels, targeting below 111.40 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Flat for now, look to sell around 113.00/30 levels, stop above 114.50, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis for US Dollar Index for October 31, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The 4H chart has been displayed here for medium-term outlook on US Dollar Index. The index jumped to fresh intraday highs yesterday just a few pips above 97.00 levels. At this point in time, it could still be addressed as a test of previous swing resistance at 97.00 levels. But at the same time please be aware that prices must drop lower from here towards initial support seen at 96.30 levels and also break below its immediate trend line support, to keep the medium-term bearish outlook intact. Any sustainable push through 97.00 levels could cancel our bearish view at least for the short term. At the moment, traders should remain cautiously bearish or stay away from the trade till a clear direction is seen. Bottom line, we need to see a break below 96.30 levels and broadly below 96.00 to confirm a meaningful top at 97.00/05.

Trading plan:

Aggressively short, with stop above 97.30, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for October 31, 2018

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Technical outlook:

A 4H chart view has been depicted here for a medium-term outlook for EUR/USD. Looking at the price action since yesterday, the possibility of yet another low below 1.1336 levels cannot be ruled out. In case the price drops lower, please be aware that the medium-term outlook for EUR/USD would not change much except for the time delay. At this point of time bulls have held previous swing support at 1.1336, hence we would respect it as intermediate support. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1550 levels as shown here. If prices stay below 1.1336 levels, we could see a rally past 1.1550 levels taking out immediate resistance. Kindly watch out for today's price action for a bottom formation, which might stay good for the entire November series.

Trading plan:

Remain ling, stop below 1.1300, target above 1.1850

Good luck!

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for October 30, 2018

USD/CAD has been quite volatile, keeping the bullish momentum which encouraged the price to push higher above 1.3050 area with a daily close. Ahead of several macroeconomic reports on Friday from the US and Canada, the pair is facing choppy trading.

USD has been quite strong amid the economic reports published today which helped the currency to assert its strength despite bearish pressure throughout the day. Today US CB Consumer Confidence report was published with an increase to 137.9 from the previous figure of 135.3 which was expected to be at 136.3 and S&P/CS Composite showed a decrease to 5.5% from the previous value of 5.9% which was expected to increase to 6.0%. On Friday the US Labor Department is due to release NFP reports. Among the components, Average Hourly Earnings report is expected to show a decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3%, Non-Farm Employment Change could have increased to 191k from the previous figure of 134k, and Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 3.8% from the previous value of 3.7%. In this context, USD is currently quite indecisive which might lead to further corrections in the coming days.

On the CAD side, today BOC Governor Poloz is going to speak ahead of the GDP report which previously was at 0.2%. Today Poloz is expected to discuss rate hikes and future monetary policies that is expected to provide CAD with support in the coming days. Moreover, on Friday the economic calendar contains Canada's Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and Trade Balance report. The previous reports revealed solid readings. Traders pin hopes on positive prints in the above-mentioned reports.

Meanwhile, CAD has been quite optimistic amid the recent economic data. USD is also catching up quite well. Ahead of US nonfarm payrolls, USD is expected to gain an advantage over CAD if the results come out better than expected. Otherwise, further volatility may lead to strong bearish counter leading to further CAD gains in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 1.3050 area while also being above the dynamic level of 20 EMA. The price is expected to go higher towards 1.3300-50 area in the coming days. The price has been quite volatile with the recent price action. As the price cleared the recent lower high with a daily close, there is a better probability for further bullish momentum than bearish. As the price remains above 1.3050 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 1.2950, 1.3050

RESISTANCE: 1.3300-50

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Bitcoin analysis for 31/10/2018

According to the financial media, the Financial Services Authority (FCA) of the United Kingdom has ruled that it is considering banning the sale of derivatives based on cryptocurrencies, Unlike in the cash market, trading, transactions, and consultancy in the field of cryptographic derivatives, such as differential contracts (CFDs), options and futures, are now in the FCA regulations and require official authorization.

In the published statement, the supervisory body informed that in the first quarter of 2019 it will start a consultation on whether it will ban the sale in the future. The supervisor's comments appeared on the same day as the new Cryptoassets Taskforce report, which includes representatives of the FCA, the Treasury and the Bank of England. He emphasizes that leveraged derivatives based on cryptography are even riskier than spot transactions because they can strengthen and "cause losses that go beyond the initial investment", and impose additional fees. The sale of cryptographic derivatives is becoming more and more profitable for online trading platforms listed on the London Stock Exchange, citing IG Group and Plus500 groups. The FCA is reportedly planning a parallel consultation to extend its regulatory jurisdiction to cryptographic resources alone, as well as to infrastructure providers such as stock exchanges and portfolio services. In his statement, the FCA explained that, in his opinion, crypto assets are not of intrinsic value, as a result of which investors should be prepared for the loss of all capital they have invested, and that this asset class as a whole constitutes a future potential threat to stability.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the breakout from the consolidation zone, the market has made a new local low at the level of $6,173 and currently is consolidating around the level of $6,225. The nearest technical resistance is now the zone between the levels of $6,287 - $6,297. The larger time frame trend remains down, so the bears can resume the move down any time soon.

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BITCOIN Analysis for October 30, 2018

After a strong plunge recently, Bitcoin is currently correcting itself along the way. The price being resisted by the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line that may lead to further corrections and bearish pressure. Meanwhile, because of the lack of Bullish Divergences, there is a low probability that the price could move higher towards $6,500 area. In the short term, if the price manages to break above the Kumo Cloud resistance with a daily close which holds above $6,350 area, the price is expected to push higher with a target towards $6,500 area. As the price remains above $6,000 area, the bullish bias is likely to remain intact.

SUPPORT: 6,000

RESISTANCE: 6,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 31, 2018

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We have seen the expected dip closer to support in the 1.7290 - 1.7300 zone (the low has been seen at 1.7267). Short-term a break above minor resistance at 1.7333 will be the first good indication that the corrective decline in red wave ii/ has completed and red wave iii/ is ready to take over for a rally towards 1.8253.

A break above resistance at 1.7459 confirms that red wave ii/ has completed and red wave iii/ is developing.

R3: 1.7497

R2: 1.7459

R1: 1.7384

Pivot: 1.7333

S1: 1.7294

S2: 1.7267

S3: 1.7218

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR upon a break above minor resistance at 1.7333 and place our stop at 1.7233.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 31, 2018

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EUR/JPY continues to push higher as wave B is evolving. We will not be surprised to see a minor set-back to support near 127.84 and maybe even closer to the 61.8% corrective target near 127.34 before the next rally higher towards 129.22 and 130.20.

A break below minor support near 128.18 will indicate a short-term correction before higher towards 130.20 in wave B

R3: 129.22

R2: 128.75

R1: 128.44

Pivot: 128.18

S1: 127.84

S2: 127.54

S3: 127.34

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 127.75 and will keep our stop at 126.50 for now. If you are not long EUR yet, then use a dip to the 127.34 - 127.84 zone to buy and place your stop at 126.50 too.

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Technical analysis for Gold for October 31, 2018

Gold price pulled back yesterday towards short-term support of $1,223-20. The multiple rejection at $1,240 resulted in this pull back. So far we consider it as a healthy pull back after a rally from $1,185. So far price remains inside the bullish channel.

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Colored lines - bullish channel

Gold price is challenging the channel boundaries and horizontal support at $1,223-20. Breaking below this level will push Gold towards $1,215 which is the break out area. Breaking below support will decrease the chances of a rally towards $1,260. Resistance at $1,232 must be broken for bulls to regain control. I continue to favor the bullish scenario and see this pull back as buying opportunity for Gold.

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for October 31, 2018

EUR/USD is back at the August lows as expected. Trend remains bearish. Price only moved lower today. This bearish trend is expected to last for a couple of sessions still. I expect EUR/USD below 1.13. But bears should also be cautious and protect their gains.

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Black dots - medium strength resistance

Red dots - maximum strength resistance

EUR/USD remains in a bearish trend as long as price is below 1.1460. Taking profits below 1.13 is advised for bears or lowering their stops. We have bullish divergence signals that should not be ignored. The pair might still be in a bearish trend but I expect this to change over the coming weeks and a big rally to follow.

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