Analysis of Gold for September 21, 2017

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,288.00. According to the 30M time frame, I found that price did break yesterday's low at the level of $1,295.00, which is a sign that sellers are in control. Another sign of weakness is very weak reaction from buyers after a breakout of yesterday's low. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,280.00 and $1,268.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,324.00

R2: $1,322.20

R3: $1,344.60

Support levels:

S1: $1,304.00

S2: $1,291.60

S3: $1,283.70

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for September 21, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3451 in an ultra high volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found a selling climax in the background and weak selling today, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I found a breakout of the overnight trading range, which is another sign of potential strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3530, 1.3555, and 1.3575. All targets are based on Fibonacci work.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3512

R2: 1.3530

R3: 1.3545

Support levels:

S1: 1.3480

S2: 1.3465

S3: 1.3450

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for September 21, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $3,850. The news about China are still big threat for buyers. Chinese bitcoin exchange ViaBTC has announced it will cease trading at the end of September – the second exchange in as many days to do so. According to an announcement, following the recent statement from the People's Bank of China and other authorities on exchange regulation and ICO risks, ViaBTC has decided to shutter its China-facing website. The techincal picture is still very bearish and buyers are weak.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found a strong resistance cluster at the price of $4,000. The strong support now became strong resistance, which is a sign that buying looks risky. There is also a broken rising wedge in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. Downward targets are set at the price of $3,720, $3,463, and $2.976.

Support/Resistance

$3.970 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$4.000 – Major cluster resistance (price action)

$3.720 – Intraday support (price action)

$3.463 – Pattern objective target

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A sharp turn for EUR/USD pair on the Fed.

A sharp turn for EURUSD on the Fed.

Morning review.

On Wednesday, everyone waited for the main event of the week, which is the Fed releases. The expectations were fully justified and caused a sharp turn in the EUR / USD pair.

What did the Fed decide? The rate on the dollar will be raised in December by + 0.25%, which is already expected. However, the three increases were supported for + 0.25% (that is, in the amount of + 0.75%) during 2018.

More importantly, the Fed will begin a long campaign to reduce the balance of assets by removing excess liquidity from the market (QE versa) in October.

This is undoubtedly the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy which is particularly in contrast to the continuation of stimulus into the markets from the ECB.

Thus, the sharp turn of the EUR / USD pair is quite in line with the basic understanding of the "fundamental analysis" on rate differentials. (What can not be said about the previous 6-month trend of the euro).

Therefore, the euro moved upward towards 1.2031 and sharply fell down with a breakout on psychological levels. The minimum for the week was 1.1910 and closed the day below.

What are we waiting for?

The resumption of the downtrend is anticipated and selling is continuous. However, if the attempt of the market for a breakdown, yesterday's low at 1.1860 failed, the price is possible to move further towards 1.1825 and 1.1835. Also, pullbacks will offer selling opportunities.

In the case of a breakthrough in the levels of 1.1825 and 1.1835, this could trigger the formation of a "triple top" type figure with the target up to 1.1600 on the H4 chart.

The euro is also under pressure because of the approaching elections in Germany on the next Sunday, September 24.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 21, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested earlier in September.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

The current price levels of 0.7320-0.7350 can be watched for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 21, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, If bearish pullback persists below 1.1800 (the depicted uptrend line) and 1.1700, a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 where BUY entries can be offered.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 21, 2017

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Overview

  • The NZD/USD pair faces resistance at 0.7350, while strong resistance is seen at 0.7374. Support is found at 0.7297 and 0.7273 levels. Today, the NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from 0.7350 level. The pair could fall from 0.7350 level to the first support around 0.7297. In consequence, if the NZD/USD pair will break support at 0.7297, this level will turn into resistance today. In the H1 time frame, the 0.7331 level is expected to act as minor resistance. Hence, we expect the NZD/USD pair to continue moving in the bearish trend from 0.7297 level towards the target at 0.7297. In the long term, if the pair succeeds in passing through 0.7297 level , the market will indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.7297 level in order to reach the second target at 0.7273. However, the 0.7273 mark remains a significant support zone. Thus, the trend will probably rebound again from 0.7273 level as long as this level is not breached. in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario above the area of 0.7273.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 21, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair will continue rising from the level of 0.9674 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.9674 which represents the daily pivot point on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the USD/CHF pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.9743. So, buy above the level of 0.9743 with the first target at 0.9790 in order to test the daily resistance 2. Also, it should be noted that the level of 0.9790 is a good place to take profits. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 0.9790, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 0.9828 today. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.620, a further decline to 0.9543 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market.
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Global macro overview for 21/09/2017

Global macro overview for 21/09/2017:

The Bank of Japan has decided to leave the interest rate at the level of -0.10%. In the Monetary Policy Statement, BoJ maintained its upbeat view on the economy, indicating that even without the additional stimulus from BoJ, the economy should recover gradually and inflation should accelerate towards 2.0% target. One of the BoJ board members, Goushi Kataoka, dissented from the decision, arguing that the current monetary policy is not strong enough to push the inflation towards the projected target by the projected time frame of around 2019. He added that inflation is likely to continue rising for the time being amid oil prices and foreign-exchange rates, not because of the effects of the current yield curve program. Moreover, in November 2016, he argued that the BoJ should have expanded its easing and that was just two months after the implementation of the yield curve control program. In his opinion, the fiscal policy should play a greater role in revitalizing the economy and supports shelving a sales-tax increase planned for October 2019.

The BoJ watchers broadly expected that the central bank will stay on the course at least through the end of Kuroda's current term in April, even as the balance sheet nears the size of Japan's economy. That leaves Japan's central bank increasingly out of step with its global peers and means an ever-growing balance sheet. Nevertheless, the recent hawkish remarks from Fed Chairperson Jannet Yellen might work in Japan's favor by keeping the pressure on the Yen and supporting prices. Though the BoJ is now behind the Fed, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank, all of them might announce other steps in normalizing the monetary policy soon enough.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market has almost hit the 78%Fibo retracement of the previous swing up and now the price is falling down due to the overbought market conditions and bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator. The next support is seen at the level of 112.19 and 111.04.

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The Federal Reserve's decision as of September 20, 2017

In 2017, while maintaining the base interest rate within the target range of 1.00% -1.25%, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve reacted to its decision, along with the current situation in the country. The Fed noted the continued increase of the economic activity at a moderate pace this year. There is a further improvement in the labor market environment due to continued strong job growth in the recent months while maintaining low unemployment rate. The Fed stated that during the period of commission meetings, family expenses showed moderate expansion, and the growth of investment by business structures has increased significantly in the recent quarters. The Fed was considered the expectations for long-term inflation as stable. At the same time, the total inflation and basic inflation are calculated on a 12-month basis, this year and remain below 2%, without considering the energy and food prices. Compensatory has the same impact on inflation from the markets and continuously implemented in the near term.In accordance with its authority, the Fed seeks to promote maximum employment and price stability. While Hurricanes "Harvey", "Irma" and "Maria" caused a large-scale destruction in many regions, leading to a significant damage. Eliminating the consequences of economic hurricanes and restoring infrastructure will affect the economic activity in the near future, but the previous experiences indicate that the impact of hurricanes is unlikely to have a significant effect on the stability of the national economy in the medium term. Therefore, the Fed still expects that the gradual regulation of the monetary market will expand the economic activity at a moderate pace and would further strengthen the labor market. Higher prices for gasoline and some other goods after hurricanes are possible to increase the inflation for a short period, however, without considering this effect. However, it should stabilize near the designated 2% target level in the medium term term. Short-term risks for the economic outlook appeared to be fairly balanced, but the Fed will continue to closely monitor inflation. Considering the already achieved and expected parameters of the labor market, the Fed decided to keep the interest rate in the range of federal funds at 1.00% -1.25%. The basic principles of monetary policy will remain flexible enough, thereby providing support for further improvement to some extent of labor market conditions, and a steady return of inflation to the level of 2%.In determining the timing and scope of the future regulation, the Fed will be guided by both achieved and expected progress in moving towards the long-term goals of maximum employment and inflation at 2%. This approach will be based on a wide range of information, including parameters of labor market conditions, indicators of inflationary pressures, inflation expectations, financial and international events. The Fed will closely monitor the actual and expected inflationary process. The Fed expects that economic conditions will evolve by ensuring a smooth hike in the interest rate for federal funds. This will probably remain below the levels for some time and expect to prevail in the long term. However, the actual interest rate trajectory for federal funds will depend on economic trends in line with the incoming data.In October, the Fed will begin implementing a program for normalizing its balance sheet, which was set out in June 2017 in the accompanying document to the document of the main principles and plans of normalization. The current foundations of the monetary policy were adopted unanimously by 9 members of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve. which will ensure a smooth increase in the interest rate for federal funds and it is likely to remain for some time.However, the actual interest rate. In October, the Fed will launch a program to normalize its balance sheet, which was set out in June 2017 in the accompanying annex to the document which outlines the basic principles and plans of the normalization strategy. The current fundamentals of monetary policy were adopted unanimously by 9 members of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve.

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Trading plan 09/20/2017

Forex analysis review
Trading plan 09/20/2017

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/CAD for September 21, 2017

EUR/CAD has shown a good amount of bearish impulsive pressure with a daily close after breaking above 1.4730 recently. The pair is currently quite volatile in nature, so corrective moves will follow in the coming days. Today, the ECB is going to present the Economic Bulletin where interest rates and future economic conditions will be evaluated. They are expected to be quite positive in principle. Besides, ECB President Draghi is going to speak today about monetary policy and a short-term interest rate that will have a serious impact on the market. Therefore, EUR is expected to gain further amid the hawkish sentiment of Mario Draghi. Moreover, EUR Consumer Confidence report is going to be published today which is expected to be unchanged at -2. On the other hand, CAD Wholesale Sales report is due today which is expected to show a greater deficit at -7 which previously was at -5. To sum up, though EUR and CAD have been quite positive amid the economic reports recently, the pair will get a directional bias in the market after Draghi's speech today. At present, EUR has lost ground without any CAD intervention or economic reports. This indicates there is a possibility of CAD gaining more in the coming days over EUR.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has recently bounced off the 1.4730 resistance level and closed with a daily candle below it which also shows bearish engulfing off the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well. As for the current scenario, the price is expected to show a bearish move towards 1.4290 support level in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.4730 with a daily close, the bearish bias is likely to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for September 21, 2017

USD/CAD has shown a great amount of bullish pressure after the FOMC meeting minutes and Federal Funds Rate were published recently. USD has showed great amount of gains over other currencies after high impact economic reports were published. The Federal Funds rate statement was published as expected at 1.25%. As for the FOMC Press Conference, the policymakers showed interest in the rate hike for December which helped the currency to gain more over CAD and change the market sentiment. Today USD Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 302k from the previous figure of 284k. As the increase in unemployment claims is negative in nature, any worse-than-expected results will help the USD to sustain the gains. Along with it, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index report is going to be published which is expected to show some decrease to 17.3 from the previous figure of 18.9. On the other hand, CAD Wholesale Sales report is due today which is expected to show greater deficit towards -0.7% from the previous negative value of -0.5%. To sum up, amid recent USD gains over CAD the market sentiment has changed which is expected to go in favor of USD for coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has shown a great amount of bearish rejection yesterday after the FOMC meeting and Funds rate statement was published. Currently the price is residing above the dynamic level of support which is likely to help in the bullish gains towards 1.2415 and later towards 1.2700. As the price remains below 1.2700, the long-term bearish bias is set to continue.

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Global macro overview for 21/09/2017

Global macro overview for 21/09/2017:

The two-day FOMC meeting resulted in an overall agreement to keep the interest rates unchanged at the level of 1.25% as widely expected. The Fed announced that starting next month the regulator will gradually shrink its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, which it built up in response to the financial crisis to support the economy.

Compared to June, the group of opponents of another hike in December did not increase. The median cost of money at the end of next year also did not fall. To be right in the eyes of the FOMC, the number of hikes dropped from three to two, and five decision-makers would have to make a "dovish" change of their attitude. Keeping the median on the current level could be interpreted as a signal that the Fed still strongly believes that the economy is indicating a sharp but transitionary decline in headline price dynamics.

The FOMC said that another federal fund rate hike in December is still on the agenda. However, Chairperson Janet Yellen made it clear in her press conference that many policymakers in the committee are troubled by the decline of measures of core inflation earlier this year. If data over the next three months do not show some evidence of inflation returning toward its target of 2 percent, as the FOMC currently expects, rate hikes are likely to be postponed.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the H4 time frame. The hawkish Fed statements have made the price of US Dollar to rally, but the momentum wasn't strong enough to break out significantly above the technical resistance at the level of 92.67. Nevertheless, the golden trend line has been violated and currently, the market is consolidating the gains around the mentioned level. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of 93.35 - 93.63.

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Bitcoin Analysis for September 20, 2017

Bitcoin is still struggling to settle above the $4,000.00 resistance level since yesterday. It has been very tight in range after the impulsive bounce off the $2,955.80 level which is currently quite indecisive in nature at the edge of breaking above the $4,000.00 important level. After the Initial Coin Offering and Exchange Ban in China currently it is rumored that the mining of Bitcoin will be also banned in China as well that will lead to further weakness for the financial instrument. As the price remains above the Kumo Cloud, it is currently expected to break above the $4,000.00 level in the coming days that is likely to lead to a further bullish move with first target towards $4,386.80 and later towards the psychological level of $4,500.00. Though there are certain challenges being faced by this Cryptocurrency, the demand will eventually increase and lead to more gains as more favorable outcomes from other countries will start to emerge.

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Bitcoin analysis for 21/09/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 21/09/2017:

Good news for all Australian cryptocurrency traders. Recently, the Australian government has introduced regulations to remove double taxation of cryptanalysts. The reform initially set in Turnbull's budget was approved. On September 14, a double taxation law was introduced. Scott Morrison Treasurer of the Commonwealth of Australia said: "Currently, consumers who use digital currency can effectively bear GST twice: once on the purchase of the digital currency and once again on its use in exchange for other goods and services subject to the GST". Since 14th of September, this situation is no longer applicable. The Bill will make it easier for new innovative digital currency businesses to operate in Australia, as the Government takes action to boost jobs and wages.

This is very good news for the cryptocurrency industry in Australia. At the same time, it could be a breakthrough for FinTech's future country policy. Previously, the Australian government had been regulating the exchange of cryptocurrency. In addition, Australian politicians and officials took over the leadership of FinTech by forming the Blockchain Parliamentary Group of Friends and chairing the 307 Technical Committee on the International Organization for Standardization (ISO).

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bullish rally was capped around the level of $4,111 and currently the price is trading in a narrow zone between the levels of $,3793 - $, 4038. From the Elliott Wave Theory point of view, the rally from the low at the level of $2,958 has been developed in three waves so far that means this leg might still be a part of a wave B correction, not an impulsive wave progression towards a new high. Any violation of the level of $4,362 invalidates this scenario.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 21, 2017

The Dollar index spiked yesterday after the FOMC. Price is testing weekly resistance levels at 92.50. So far we consider this upward bounce as a corrective play in a larger down trend.

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The Dollar index has broken out of the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. This is a bullish sign. The Dollar index is however diverging. So a pullback towards cloud support at 92.10-92 is justified. Bulls will then need to hold above support. Otherwise we will see this breakout as a fake one.

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On a weekly basis, the Dollar index is testing the weekly tenkan-sen resistance (red line indicator). Price remains in bearish trend. The rest of this week and the next will be very important for the medium-term move which the index will make. A rejection here will open the way for new lows below 90. Continuation of Dollar strength will open the way for a bigger bounce towards 96.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for September 21, 2017

Gold price as expected made a new lower low yesterday after the FOMC policy announcements. Price has broken below $1,300. Gold price is still inside the bearish channel heading towards next support of $1,288-80. Longer-term view remains bullish and we consider this pullback as an excellent opportunity to buy gold for above $1,400.

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Black lines - bearish channel

Gold price is trading just below the 38% Fibonacci retracement support. The oscillators are showing minor divergence signs. We were cautious about Gold above $1,350 that is calling for a pullback. Now I believe we are very close to an important turning point. Gold is expected to reverse to the upside. Price action so far is corrective. Cloud resistance is at $1,323. Technical resistance is at $1,316. Support is at $1,290-88 area.

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Red line - long-term resistance

Gold price has not only broken above the long-term trend line resistance but also above the weekly Kumo (cloud). This pullback is a back test. Weekly support is at $1,280 by the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) and at $1,300 by the tenkan-sen. I believe this pullback is a buying opportunity. A bear trap for weak longs that entered the bullish is above $1,300.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 21, 2017

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Both our upside targets which we predicted in our previous analysis have been hit. USD/JPY is still expected to extend its upside movement. The pair accelerated on the upside after breaking above the upper boundary of the triangle pattern. The upward momentum is further reinforced by both rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is bullish and calls for a further upside.

To conclude, above 111.80, look for a new challenge with targets at 113.30 and 113.75 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 111.80 with a target at 111.50.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 111.80, Take Profit: 113.30

Resistance levels: 113.30, 113.75 and 114.15 Support Levels: 111.50, 111.20, 110.80

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Trading plan for 21/09/2017

Trading plan for 21/09/2017:

The hawkish statements from Fed on Wednesday evening gave fuel to the US Dollar strengthening, which is continuing during the Asian session. The Bank of Japan decision was in line with expectations, though there was a voice for further loosening. AUD loses after dovish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The Nikkei 225 is slightly rising, Gold is breaking down.

On Thursday 21st of September, the event calendar is busy with an important news release. During the London session, BOJ Press Conference will occur, then Eurozone will post ECB Economic Bulletin data, and the UK will present Public Sector Net Borrowing data. During the US session, Canada will post Wholesale Sales data and the US will present Unemployment Claims, Continuing Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and House Price Index data. Later during the session, there is a scheduled speech of Mario Draghi as well.

EUR/USD analysis for 21/09/2017:

The ECB Economic Bulletin data are scheduled for release at 08:00 am GMT and they might have some impact on the EUR/USD pair. Nevertheless, market participants will be still focused on yesterday's Fed decision regarding the interest rates. The Fed will begin the process of reducing its balance sheet total from October, but the more likely impact on the US Dollar would be the Federal Reserve's rate on the December rally and three more in 2018. At the conference, Jannet Yellen stressed that inflation was temporary and the hurricane effect is viewed as short-lived. As a result, USD is the unbeatable winner of the last trading hours. This situation might, however, get a little bit stopped after the Mario Draghi comments later tonight.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The EUR/USD pair dipped significantly after the Fed decision, but the pair is still trading inside of a range between the levels of 1.1821 - 1.2090. As long as the price stays in this zone, neither bulls or bears are the real winners. However, there are some signs of weakness in the EUR/USD pair as any rally needs a correction, but so far the drop was limited. The higher time frame trend remains bullish.

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Market Snapshot: Gold drops below the important support

The price of Gold has dropped below the technical support zone between the levels of $1,308 - $1, 298 and now is heading towards the next support at the level of $1,280. The breakout below the 200-period moving average and the downward pointing momentum indicator supports the bearish outlook.

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Market Snapshot: SPY bounces from support again

The price of SPY (SP500 ETF) has bounced from the technical support at the level of 248.88 after the Fed interest rate decision and currently is heading to test the all-time highs at the level of 250.31. The breakout above the all-time highs might become short-lived as the momentum indicator is still well below its fifty level and pointing downward.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 21, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been reached. The pair is trading above its ascending 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the bullish bias. The relative strength index is calling for a new upleg. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 0.9645.

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve kept its key interest rates unchanged. It also announced plans to begin in October shrinking its approximately $4.2 trillion in holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities acquired after the 2008 financial crisis. However, according to projections released at the same time by the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank will go ahead for one more rate increase this year and three times next year. This blew a surprise to the market, as investors had previously believed a series of weak inflation readings might alter the Fed's monetary tightening plans.

To sum up, as long as this key level is not broken, look for a further advance to 0.9765 and even to 0.9795 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9645, Take Profit: 0.9765

Resistance levels: 0.9765, 0.9795, and 0.98830

Support levels: 0.9625, 0.9590, and 0.9550

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 21, 2017

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Our first upside target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. The pair is still expected to advance further and post some further upside gains. The pair is drawing a flat consolidation above the 151.00 intraday key support. This consolidation looks like a pause in a short-term ascending trend with a strong bullish momentum. As a consequence, a resumption of this bullish trend is expected in the coming sessions.

Suggest long positions above 151.00 with targets at 152.70 and 153.40 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 151.00 with the target at 150.15.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 151.00, Take Profit: 152.70

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 152.70, 153.40 and 154.00

Support levels: 150.15, 149.35, and 148.50

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for September 21, 2017

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Wave summary:

Red wave iv continues to extend lower. By breaking below support at 1.6269, the next possible target for red wave iv is seen in the 1.5993 - 1.6055 area from where the next impulsive rally towards 1.6763 is expected.

R3: 1.6690

R2: 1.6533

R1: 1.6441

Pivot: 1.6262

S1: 1.6200

S2: 1.6137

S3: 1.6055

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6255 was hit for a loss. We are looking for a new EUR-buying opportunity at 1.6060 with stop placed at 1.5960.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 21, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for more upside towards 134.80 and 136.14 as the next upside targets before the ideal wave D target at 137.36 from where wave E is expected to take over in the last swing lower to complete the hugh triangle consolidation.

Short-term, we will ideally see minor support at 133.24 to protect the downside for the next move higher towards 134.80. Only an unexpected break below support at 132.24 will indicate that wave D completed early.

R3: 134.80

R2: 134.25

R1: 133.85

Pivot: 133.50

S1: 133.12

S2: 132.94

S3: 132.24

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 131.76 with stop placed at 132.55. We will take half profit at 134.80.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 21, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. The pair broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the 20-period moving average is turning down. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum.

To conclude, as long as 0.7360 is not surpassed, look for a further decline to 0.7275 and even to 0.7245 in extension.

The black line is showing the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines is showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7390, 0.7410, and 0.7455

Support levels: 0.7275, 0.7245, and 0.7180

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/JPY dropping nicely, remain bearish

Price continues to test major channel resistance and we look to sell below this level of resistance (Swing high resistance, channel resistance, Fibonacci extension) for a short term correction to at least 132.01 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (55,3,1) is dropping nicely from our 96% resistance level with good downside potential.

Sell below 134.15. Stop loss at 134.92. Take profit at 132.01.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY look to buy on dips for a further push up

Price has continued to rise strongly and we look to buy on dips above 111.71 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) for a further push up to at least 113.41 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (34) sees support above 50% where we expect further bullish momentum from.

Buy above 111.71. Stop loss at 110.97. Take profit at 113.41.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD look to buy on dips for a push up

We look to buy on dips above major support at 0.7990 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, bullish price action) for a further push up to at least 0.8083 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major support above 4.7% where we expect a bounce from.

Buy above 0.7990. Stop loss at 0.7934. Take profit at 0.8083.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy on major support

Price has dropped absolutely perfectly from our selling area and has reached our profit target. We prepare to buy above major support at 1.1829 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci extension) for a push up to at least 1.1957 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing strong support above 0.2% where we expect a bounce from.

Buy above 1.1829. Stop loss at 1.1758. Take profit at 1.1957.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CHF profit target reached perfectly, remain bullish for a further rise

Price has shot up and reached our profit target perfectly. We remain bullish looking to buy on dips above 0.9676 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) for a further push up to 0.9757 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (34) has made a bullish exit of our triangle formation and remains in a bullish configuration.

Buy above 0.9676. Stop loss at 0.9640. Take profit at 0.9757.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD look to buy on dips for a further push up

Price is approaching strong support at 0.7303 (Fibonacci retracement, swing low support, bullish price action) and we expect a bounce above this level to push price up to at least 0.7409 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong support above 3.9% where we expect a bounce from.

Buy above 0.7303. Stop loss at 0.7243. Take profit at 0.7409.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for September 21, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair nosedived yesterday, but that was not significant enough to put an end to the recent neutrality in the market. For a bearish bias to form, there is a need for price to go below the support line at 1.1850. Otherwise, a rally from here would simply put more emphasis on the recent neutrality in the market.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair shot upwards on Wednesday, but that was not significant enough to put an end to the recent neutrality in the market. For a bullish bias to form, price has to go above the resistance level at 0.9700. Otherwise, a bearish correction from here would simply put more emphasis on the recent neutrality in the market.

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GBP/USD: In spite of the general consolidation in this market, the pair remains bullish. There should soon be a rise in momentum, which would most probably favor bulls. Certain fundamental figures are expected today and they may have some impact on the market.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair went sharply upwards on Wednesday – to corroborate the existing bullishness in the market. Price is now above the demand level at 112.00, and almost reaching the supply level at 112.50. Other supply levels at 113.00 and 113.50 may also be reached before a meaningful reversal happens.

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EUR/JPY: This is a bullish market; in spite of what is happening on it right now. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. There is a possibility of a further bullish movement before the expected reversal in the market happens (this week or early next week).

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 21, 2017

The index remains in the wait-and-see mode ahead of key macroeconomic releases in the United States. The support level of 91.67 is still a strong barrier for sellers and a key demand zone where bulls could gather momentum in order to reach the resistance zone of 93.09. To the downside, if the US Dollar Index manages to break below that area, further declines are expected toward 90.30.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 94.04

H1 chart's support levels: 91.67 / 90.30

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 91.67, take profit is at 90.30 and stop loss is at 93.04.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 21, 2017

The pair has been consolidating gains around 1.3592 and still awaits to break above it in order to gain momentum towards the 1.3755 level. The 200 SMA on H1 chart is still setting the tone for GBP/USD in the short term. Any dip could be an opportunity to buy the Cable. However, a pullback at the current stage could open the doors to test the 1.3309 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3592 / 1.3755

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3309 / 1.3209

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3592, take profit is at 1.3755 and stop loss is at 1.3430.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan 09/20/2017

Trading plan 09/20/2017

The overall picture: All attention to the Fed.

On Tuesday, US leader Trump delivered a keynote speech at the United Nations, bringing down threats to North Korea and slightly less to Iran, Venezuela and Syrian leader Assad.

Nevertheless, we do not see new launches of missiles from North Korea or promises of such launches. It seems that the real threat of a full oil and financial blockade in the case of new launches of North Korean missiles began to work. We will see.

Against this backdrop of some geopolitical calm, the US market again reached historical highs (about 2500 on the S & P500) and the dollar seems to be ready to weaken.

Everyone turned their heads in the direction of the Fed.

Today at 19.00 London time, the Fed will issue a statement on monetary policy and publish the Fed's forecast for the state of the economy (issued by the Federal Reserve every six months).

At 19.30 London time, Fed Chairman Yellen will speak.

What do we expect? The bet will not be raised, there is not a single chance. The rate increase of 0.25% is possible in December.

The Fed will discuss a plan to reduce the balance of assets of the Fed. That is a program of gradually pulling out excess liquidity from the markets, pumped during the three QE programs. The Fed will do this extremely slow and cautiously, trying not to damage the growth of the economy. Growth, as expected, the Fed will describe how slow and moderate.

Thus, the Fed's statements are expecting very "pigeons" and this is more likely to lead to a new wave of decline in the US dollar.

EUR/USD

In the morning, the Euro broke through the Tuesday's high of 1.2005 and keeps close to the high of the current week.

We keep the purchase from 1.2005 stop-loss 1.1960.

However, there is a fallback option: In case of a sharp downward turn, we sell from 1.1910 with a stop at 1.1955 and target of 1.1780.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com