BITCOIN Analysis for August 16, 2018

Bitcoin is still quite indecisive inside the corrective range of $6,000 to $6,500. The price has been a bit bullish recently after a certain bearish rejection off the $6,000 area with a daily close. The market is still residing in the indecisive phase where no definite pressure is being observed in the process. The price is being rejected off the parallel boundaries of $6,000 and $6,500 from where the price is expected to break higher because the false break structure has been formed in the process, following the previous price action. Meanwhile, a daily close above $6,500 is required for an impulsive bullish momentum in this pair which is expected to push higher towards $8,000 area in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 6000

RESISTANCE: 6500, 8000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The growth of tension against the European currencies

Eurozone

The euro continues to decline, but at the heart of it is not the economic problems of the eurozone, but the next growth of political risks. Preliminary assessment of GDP growth in the euro area in 2Q increased from 2.1% to 2.2% while industrial production growth as of June is 2.5%, which is slightly lower than forecast, but the trend is still rising.

The aggravation of the crisis in Turkey as a boomerang is hitting the prospects of the European economy, and so experiencing considerable difficulties after the unilateral withdrawal of the US from the Iranian nuclear deal and the government crisis in Italy. Turkey follows Russia to get rid of dollars, and Italian banks, which traditionally take a significant part in financing a projector in Turkey. They can suffer first.

Despite the fact that US President Trump has already publicly expressed displeasure at the too high dollar rate, he is still clearly benefiting from the trade war.

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This factor, at the same time, looks positive only at a short distance - by the end of the year, a noticeable strengthening of the dollar index and tightening of financial conditions as a result of the policy of the Fed will have the opposite effect. Actually, the EURUSD rate was ready for a reversal after a rather noticeable drop, and, most likely, it will happen by the end of the year. However, at the current stage of the reasons for the growth of the euro there is practically none. The resolution of the US trade negotiations with the main partners to its own advantage lies in the strategy of the Trump administration as one of the key parameters for stabilizing the growing budget deficit, and there is nowhere to retreat from the US, and therefore, the current tension will intensify, despite attempts to find a compromise through negotiations.

The euro will remain under pressure until the end of the week. On Friday, an inflation report will be published for the month of July. Forecasts are neutral, experts are not expecting surprises, and the euro is unlikely to find a positive driver for itself. The euro will be traded in a range with gravity to the lower border, probably a decline in results for up to 1.1320 with an attempt to go below yesterday's low until the end of the week.

United Kingdom

For the pound, the current week looks quite saturated. New data may change the prospects for another rate hike by the Bank of England. At the moment, the market is dominated by the assumption about the next step of the BoE will make in May 2019. Until that moment, we will observe the changes in the economy. Obviously, these changes should be positive, but recent data indicate that expectations may be overestimated.

The unemployment rate in April-June fell to 4%, this is the minimum for the past 43 years. At the same time, fewer projections were created for new jobs, and the dynamics of the average wage are quite alarming.

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Exactly three years ago, the situation was much the same. Markets were waiting for the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy but a sharp drop in wage growth for August-October led to a pause of more than two years. Now, the growth in incomes is not so pronounced, but it's enough to question the inflation forecasts, which means the BoE's ability to withstand the cycle of increase without adjusting is there.

A number of indirect data contribute to the growth of fears. The growth of the retail price index in July turned out to be worse than the forecasts, producer prices showed zero growth at all, which may indicate problems with the growth of orders. Inflation growth rate of 2.5% over the last year is in line with the forecasts. This has somewhat reduced the negative but expectations have worsened, and now most experts are waiting for a slowdown in prices until the end of this year.

Today, a report on retail sales in July was published, which may slightly change the emphasis, but it is unlikely to provide the pound with appreciable support. The decline is highly likely to continue, corrective growth is limited to resistance at 1.2770, after which sales may resume to update the recent low at 1.2660.

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EUR / USD: The euro is growing on the illusions of change

Geopolitical fundamental factors are characterized by their volatility and unreliability. On the other hand, such factors can influence not only this or that currency pair, but in general, the mood of the markets. For example, the day before yesterday, there was information that Turkey could release the American pastor causing the dynamics of many currencies (lira, euro, pound, yen) to instantly change. As soon as these rumors were not confirmed, the decline in the European currency and many others significantly increased. The information pause did not last long: during the Asian session, the market received "food for thoughts", and immediately moved in two directions, fueled by the prospects of the Turkish crisis and the trade war between the US and China.

Let's start with the Turkish problem. Yesterday, it became known late in the evening that Qatar is ready to invest in the Turkish economy with more than 15 billion dollars of direct investment. This information is unconfirmed: one of the Turkish news agencies referred to an anonymous source in the presidential circles. However, given yesterday's meeting between Emir of Qatar and the President of Turkey, and especially the subsequent rhetoric of their representatives, it is likely that promises of 15-billion investments will become a reality. Such prospects have affected not only the Turkish lira, which has strengthened against the dollar by more than a thousand points - from the annual lows, but also the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and even the Australian dollar, which was pushed by good data on the Australian labor market.

The European currency, paired with the dollar, is back to the 14th figure, also "remembering" that data on GDP growth for the second quarter were revised upward (from 0.3% q / q to 0.4%, and from 2.1% y / y to 2.2%). And although the European economy still slowed in the second quarter relative to the previous period, this recalculation slightly improved the positions of bulls of the EUR/USD, which were able to organize the minimum allowable correction in the current situation.

Interesting news came from China. This night it became known that representatives of the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China will visit Washington, where they will hold trade talks. According to the Chinese, the initiative was shown by the Americans. The delegation will be headed by the vice minister of trade of China, which speaks about the high level of the representative level of the visit. Beijing has already announced that it will not accept any ultimatum from Washington and will not unilaterally take any measures. However, in the context of recent events, the very fact of the dialogue is important because in this case, there is at least a minimum probability of rapprochement of positions.

In other words, optimistic notes appeared in the information space, which gave hope for resolving serious crisis situations. The market did not fail to take advantage of this opportunity, and many (almost all) dollar pairs showed a correction. However, in our opinion, the above information reasons can not reverse the general situation on the market. The market "missed" good news, so any hints of positive changes with great enthusiasm are perceived by traders.

However, the de facto bulls of the EUR/USD could not even go to the 14th figure to confirm their presence in the market. The remaining dollar pairs also showed quite modest corrective movements, which already slowed at the beginning of the European session. Which is justifiable - after all, the assistance of Qatar in Turkey and the visit of the Chinese delegation to the United States only brightened up the information background, but did not solve the problem.

So, according to a number of experts, Turkey will have to apply to the IMF for financial assistance of $200-230 billion by the end of the year. Qatar's aid is not capable of "closing" the needs of the Turkish economy, despite serious injections. Here the psychological support factor plays a role, but, by and large, the situation has not changed. Moreover, the American Vice President Mike Pence asked the Turkish authorities to "stop hysteria" and called for the release of the American pastor. He made it clear that the States will not lower the level of pressure until Ankara fulfills the demand of the White House.

As for the visit of the Chinese delegation, there is more hope for some positive result. However, it's too early to talk about this, especially since Beijing and Washington are not the first to sit down at the negotiating table but previous meetings ended in nothing.

Thus, the optimism of the Asian trading session is at least premature. The eurodollar pair is still in a strong downward trend, and the fundamental background is still unable to break the southern movement. In our opinion, only Donald Trump can change the situation on the market with the help of verbal interventions. On the market, it is increasingly said that in the near future the reaction of the White House should be followed by the exchange rate of the national currency (especially when EUR/USD approached the 12th figure, and USD/CNY reaches the historical maximum). This is what explains the slowdown in the growth of the dollar index today, which once again updated the annual minimum for the week.

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As a whole, with respect to the EUR/USD pair, I adhere to the previous strategy. Until the price is fixed above 1.1450 (the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart), and for reliability, above 1.1570 (the Bollinger Bands average line on D1), no break of the trend can be done by speeches. This means that at the moment, the pair continues to be in the downward movement with the main southern target of 1.1250 (the bottom line of Bollinger Bands on the monthly chart).

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EUR/USD. August 16. Trading system "Regression channels". Long-awaited correction

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

Higher channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction - down.

Moving average (20, smoothed) - down.

СCI: -24.2884

On August 15, the EUR/USD currency pair after long sorrow started an upward correction with the first target - moving. The reasons for the correction are purely technical, since no significant information was available to traders yesterday. Thus, traders would likely began to fix the profit on dollar positions. Now, the key moment for the pair will be working out the moving middle line. If market participants failed to overcome the trend, then the downtrend will resume and the pair will be able to renew its lows again. If the removals will be beaten, then the bulls will finally get a chance to form an uptrend, but this may require fundamental support and the latest macroeconomic reports from the Eurozone and the US shows a little hope of tangible support. Today, the trade balance for June will be published in Europe and the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Both reports have a weak degree of significance and are unlikely to have a strong impact on the trading course. Thus, there are technical factors initially, as well as possible new statements or actions of the US leader Donald Trump as the market reacts very violently.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.153

S2 - 1.1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.1414

R2 = 1.1475

R3 = 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair began to be corrected. Correction can be completed near the trend, therefore, the rebound from this line (with the Heiken Ashi reversal down) can be regarded as a signal for opening of new short positions with a target at 1.1292.

Long positions are recommended to be considered only after fixing the price above the trend with the target of 1.1475. In this case, the initiative on the instrument will for some time pass into the hands of bulls, which will try to form at least a short-term uptrend.

In addition to the technical picture, traders should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Murray Levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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GBP/USD analysis for August 16, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2697. According to the M30 time – frame, I found a buying climax in the background (weakness) and lack of buying power since the price didn't test the resistance 1. I also found a broken upward trendline in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2663 and at the price of 1.2625.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2734

R2: 1.2771

R3: 1.2808

Support levels:

S1: 1.2663

S2: 1.2625

S3: 1.2587

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Analysis of Gold for August 16, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that price is on that critical resistance at the price of $1,180.00 (supply trendline and Fibonacci confluence), which is a sign that that buying looks very risky. I also found overbought conditions on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,167.00, $1,159.50 and at the price of $1,145.45.

Support/Resistance

$1,180.00 – Intraday resistance

$1,178.00– Intraday support

$1.167.00 – Objective target 1

$1,159.54 – Objective target 2

$1,145.50 – Objective target 3

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Bitcoin analysis for August 16, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that price broke that upward trendline in the background, which is a sign of weakness. I also found a potential intraday upward correction after the breakout and my advice is to watch for potential breakout of the support trendline to confirm a further downward movement. Downward targets are set at the price of $6.088 and at the price of $5.801

Support/Resistance

$6.040 – Intraday resistance

$6.205– Intraday support

$6.088 – Objective target 1

$5.801 – Objective target 2

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EUR / USD pair for August 15. Results of the day. Erdogan still responded with his trade duties, but this did not help the

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 55p - 94p - 148p - 68p - 98p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 93n (84p).

On Wednesday, August 15, it became known that Turkish President Erdogan still decided to move from words to deeds and introduce duties on some American goods imported into the country such as cars, alcohol, and tobacco. In addition, Erdogan urged the population to sell dollars and euros in order to stabilize the rate of the lira, which in recent days has very strong pressure against the US dollar. Erdogan also called for the abandonment of purchases of American technology, referring primarily to Apple products. In general, Trump managed to unleash a trade war with another country. The European currency does not seem to care who and against whom sanctions are imposed. The states imposed trade restrictions against Turkey while they responded with its sanctions and the euro is falling. Although Trump himself is opposed to the "expensive" national currency, realizing that this complicates the process of servicing the public debt. So far it is he who is the cause of the strongest strengthening of the US dollar. Also now it is possible to predict future trade conflicts with other countries since Trump seems to be intent on completely removing the US trade deficit. Another question is that almost all countries meet their sanctions for American products, which will reduce its demand abroad. Thus, we are only at the very beginning of the epic "Trump Against All" that this complicates the process of servicing the public debt. For the time being it is the reason for the strongest strengthening of the US dollar.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD pair continues its downward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to remain in the sell-positions with the aim of the second support level of 1.1235. The MACD indicator may start discharging in the near future, so its correction signal may be false.

It is only recommended to open long positions. You can try to bargain away with the goal of the Kijun-Sen line. The question is that the correction for the instrument is now very weak, and therefore, their development is very risky.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for August 16, 2018

EUR/GBP has been quite non-volatile with recent bullish gains which is expected to push the price much higher in the coming days. GBP has been struggling in the context of the recent trade jitters and the Brexit situation. Interestingly, positive economic reports does not provide EUR with support.

Recently, UK CPI report was published as expected with a 2.5% increase from the previous value of 2.4% and PPI input also increased to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to decrease to 0.1%. Today, UK Retail Sales report was published with an increase to 0.7% from the previous negative value of -0.5% which did not quite help the currency to win back losses yet.

On the other hand, despite the worse-than-expected data today, EUR gained momentum. Today, German WPI report was published with a decrease to 0.0% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.5% and Trade Balance decreased to 16.7B from the previous figure of 16.9 which was expected to increase to 17.0B.

Meanwhile, the market seems to be quite biased on the EUR side despite the back to back worse economic figures on the same day. While GBP is struggling to gain momentum, any further positive EUR economic report is expected to inject more bullish pressure in the pair in the near future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of breaking above 0.8950 area with confluence of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line. The Chikou Span is also indicating an upward momentum having Price Line as support is expected to inject further bullish momentum in the market. A daily close above 0.8950 is expected to inject further impulsive bullish pressure in the market in the future. As the price remains above 0.8850 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue with a target towards 0.9300 resistance area in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 0.8850

RESISTANCE: 0.8950, 0.9300

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE and NON-VOLATILE

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Analysis of EUR/USD Divergences on August 16. The bullish divergence marked the beginning of the correction

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4h

On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair had a reversal in favor of the European currency and began the growth process towards the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1431, following the bullish divergence of the MACD indicator. On August 16, there is a developing bearish divergence in the CCI indicator. Its formation will allow traders to expect the pair to turn in favor of the US currency and continue the decline towards the Fibo level of 200.0% - 1.1227. Breaking off the quotes from 127.2% correction level will similarly work in favor of beginning the fall of the euro/dollar pair.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from June 21, 2018 and July 9, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair continues to drop quotations towards the 127.2% correction level - 1.1285. The pair retreated from the 127.2% Fibo level and will allow us to consider a reversal in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Today, there are no visible divergence in any indicator. Fixing the quotes below the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the chances of continuing the fall towards the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017 and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the EUR /USD pair can now be made in the target at 1.1431, with a stop loss order under the Fibo level of 161.8% since the pair completed the closing above the correction level of 1.3333 with the formation of a bullish divergence.

New sales of the EUR/USD pair is suggested to open with the targets at 1.1333 and 1.1227, if the pair retreats from the Fibo level of 127.2% with a Stop Loss order above 1.1431, or if a bearish divergence is formed.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for August 16, 2018

AUD/JPY is currently quite impulsive with bullish gains after having a breakout below 80.50 area with a daily close recently. AUD has been dominated by JPY in many ways. However, having mixed economic reports today with a decrease in Australia's unemployment rate, certain gain on the AUD side is being observed.

AUD has been trading quite mixed amid the recent economic reports which enabled JPY to be ahead in a consistent basis. Recently, AUD Wage Price Index report was published with a slight increase to 0.6% as expected from the previous value of 0.5%. Today, AUD Employment Change report was published with a significant decrease to -3.9k from the previous figure of 58.2k and Unemployment Rate declined to 5.3% which was expected to be unchanged at 5.4%. Despite the mixed economic reports, AUD is currently gaining certain momentum which is expected to be quite short-lived in the process.

On the JPY side, it has been quite solid with the recent economic reports which helped the currency to gain on a consistent basis against AUD so far. Recently, Japan's Revised Industrial Production report was published with an increase to -1.8% which was expected to be unchanged at -2.1%. The positive economic report helped JPY to sustain the momentum. But JPY weakened immediately because of the worse-than-expected reading today. Today, Japan's Trade Balance report was published with a significant decrease to -0.05T from the previous figure of 0.08T which was expected to be at 0.02T.

Meanwhile, JPY is expected lose further momentum against AUD in the process while the upward momentum is expected to be a medium-term process. As AUD has been underperforming for certain period and having Employment Change shooting drastically lower today, AUD gains are expected to temporary. In the long term, JPY is expected to regain momentum and recover earlier losses.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trying to break above 80.50 area with an impulsive bullish pressure which if makes a daily close above the area is expected to inject further impulsive bullish pressure in the pair. As the price is currently residing quite apart from the dynamic level of 20 EMA, certain bullish pressure is expected to follow but any rejection off the 82.00 area with confluence of the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line. The price is expected to push below 80.50 area in the future. As the price remains below 82.00 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 75.00

RESISTANCE: 80.50, 82.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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GBP / USD pair for August 15. Results of the day. Expected inflation in the UK did not help the British pound

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 106p - 92p - 114p - 61p - 123p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 99p (85p).

The Full-scale decline of the British pound continues. During the day, the consumer price index was published in the UK, which as expected, accelerated to 2.5% in July. However, this still did not cause either the purchase of the British currency or the fixation of dollar positions. In the United States today, changes in the volume of industrial production (+ 0.1% in July) and retail sales (+ 0.5% in July) were published. It's hard to even say if the traders reacted to this news. Most likely, the dollar at a quiet pace would continue to go up, without these macroeconomic reports. Proceeding from all this it follows that the main factor for the analysis of the pair is now technical. The price is steadily located below the Kijun-Sen line. Thus, the maximum that can now be expected from the British currency is a correction to this most critical line. In general, the pair remains in a stable downward movement. As the trend shows, such movements are the longest - when there are no deep and frequent corrections. Thus, the British pound urgently needs strong macroeconomic data, and this should not be the usual reports on economic indicators because they are simply not paying attention to them.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair resumed its downward movement and almost fulfilled the level of 1.2657. A rebound in prices from this level can provoke an upward correction, which is unlikely to turn out to be strong. Nevertheless, this will signal a manual reduction of shorts, as well as a reversal to the top of the MACD.

It is recommended to buy orders if traders overcome the Kijun-Sen line. In this case, the British currency will have some chances of strengthening, and traders will have at least some reason for opening longs.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 16, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range (1.2200).

The price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery towards 1.1830. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1800.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair is testing the price zone of 1.1450-1.1370 (demand zone) where the depicted trend lines are located on the depicted weekly chart.

As anticipated, bearish closure below 1.1400 was achieved. This allowed further bearish decline towards 1.1300.

For a further decline to occur, the EUR/USD pair needs obvious bearish breakdown below 1.1375. An iInitial bearish target would be located around 1.1275 then 1.1120 if enough bearish pressure is applied.

Hence, the EUR/USD short-term outlook remains bearish towards the mentioned levels unless bullish breakout above 1.1420 is achieved. This would pause the ongoing bearish momentum allowing bullish pullback to take place.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 16, 2018

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Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed for a bearish breakout of the depicted consolidation range (0.7170 and 0.7350).

Quick bearish decline took place towards 0.6700-0.6800 where narrow ranged consolidation range was established.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 temporarily.

However, lack of bullish momentum made the bulls fail to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6700.

On August 9, bearish breakout below the depicted consolidation range (0.6700-0.6840) was executed. This allowed the current bearish decline to occur towards 0.6600-0.6570.

The NZD/USD pair outlook turned to be bearish. Bearish targets are projected towards the price levels of 0.6520 and 0.6480.

Recently, early signs of bullish recovery are being manifested around the recent low around 0.6550. This indicates a possible bullish pullback.

Conservative traders should wait for bullish pullback towards 0.6700-0.6720 for a low-risk SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.6770.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 16, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot: 1.3048.

The USD/CAD pair continues to trade downwards from the levels of 1.3094 and 0.3132. This week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3169 to the bottom around 1.2974 then set around the spot of 1.3080. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3094 followed by 1.3132, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.2974. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3094 and 1.2974; for that, we expect a range of 120 pips (1.3094 - 1.2974). If the USD/CAD pair fails to break through the minor resistance level of 1.3094 , the market will decline further to 1.3048. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.2974 with a view to testing the daily major support. However, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.3094, then this scenario may become invalidated.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 16, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair dropped from the level of 0.6593 towards 0.6541. Now, the price is set at 0.6583. On the H4 chart, the resistance of NZD/USD pair is seen at the level of 0.6626 and 0.6652.

It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the NZD/USD pair is still moving between 0.6593 and 0.6541 in coming hours.

Moreover, the price spot of 0.6593/0.6626 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the NZD/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.6593/0.6626, sell below 0.6593 or 0.6626 with the first target at 0.6541 in order to test yesterday's bottom. Also, it should be noticed that support 1 is seen at the level of 0.6593 which coincides the daily pivot point.

Additionally, if the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 0.6541, the market will decline further to in order to test the daily support 2 (0.6489).

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 16, 2018

The EUR/USD pair is showing reversal signs. Trend remains bearish on a daily basis but there are signs of a possible short-term bounce. Yesterday's candle was a bullish hammer. I expect a bounce towards the previous support which is now resistance at 1.15. The most likely scenario will be a rejection and a bearish reversal to new lows.

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Blue line - medium-term resistance

Red line - short-term resistance

Green lines - expect price path

EUR/USD has short-term resistance at 1.1465 and next at 1.15 Medium-term trend line resistance is found at 1.1550-1.1570. As long as we are below that area, I remain bearish looking for a new lower low. Support is at 1.1335. A break below this level will open the way for a move below 1.13.

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Technical analysis of Gold for August 16, 2018

Gold price has overshot below the lower wedge boundary and is forming a bullish reversal candle. Gold price moved as low as $1,160 area providing a better-than-expected sell profit from our yesterday intraday short idea once $1,193 was broken downwards.

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Black lines - downward sloping wedge pattern

Blue line - Bullish divergence

Magenta line - long-term resistance

Gold price remains in a bearish trend. Price is below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen (red and yellow lines) indicators. Price remains inside the wedge pattern even if we have seen an overshoot earlier this morning. Price is forming a bullish hammer (reversal pattern) but we need to be patient to see at the end of the day how this will have been formed. Resistance at $1,211 is key for the short-term trend. We could see a bounce towards the upper wedge boundary or at least towards the tenkan-sen at $1,190-93.

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Trading plan for 16/08/2018

Trading plan for 16/08/2018:

The European session looks to be rather quiet. Traders will get acquainted with the trade balance in the euro area and the data on the British retail sales. In the afternoon we will have a series of data from the USA and Canada. Wall Street is concerned about the longest correction of the DJIA index for over 50 years. At night, data from Japan and Australia were published.

Japan published data on the trade balance overnight. They turned out to be worse than expected. Previously, the trade surplus was 721 billion JPY. Now a deficit of JPY 50 billion was expected, and it amounted to as much as 231 billion JPY. The blame for this situation is a strong drop in the growth rate of exports, which in July in annual terms increased by only 3.9% (expected 6.3%, previously 6.7%).

On Thursday, the 16th of August, the event calendar is busy with important data releases. Beside the Unemployment Rate data from Australia, the market participants should pay attention to Retail Sales data from the UK, Canadian ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Manufacturing Shipments data, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Building Permits and Housing Start data from the US. No speeches were scheduled for today.

AUD/USD analysis for 16/08/2018:

The Australian labor market data were released overnight. Employment was expected to increase by 15k people, however, there was a decrease of 3.9k people. It happened due to the reduction of seasonal employment by 23.2k people, but the number of people working on the full stage increased by 19.3k.

However, the unemployment rate has decreased - from 5.4% to 5.3%, which is a surprise, because, despite high expectations for employment growth, the markets did not expect a change in this value. The decrease in the participation rate is partially responsible, from 65.7% to 65.5%. AUDUSD reacted to the increases, which currently amount to around 40 pips.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market bounced from the level of 0.7202, broke through the resistance at the level of 0.7246 and was capped at the level of 0.7279. Currently, the price is trading just below this market as the pull-back from the oversold conditions continues. In a case of a further up move, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 0.7298 (38% Fibo), 0.7313 - 0.7323 zone and eventually at the level of 50% Fibo at 0.7327. The nearest support is seen at the level of 0.7246.

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Bitcoin analysis for 16/08/2018

A governmental committee made up of Saudi regulators issued a statement that trading in cryptocurrencies in the kingdom is illegal. According to a statement issued on Sunday, a permanent committee warned against the trading of cryptocurrencies due to the negative consequences and high risk posed by traders who are out of the government's supervision.

"The committee assured that the virtual currency, including, but not limited to, Bitcoin, is illegal in the kingdom and neither party nor person is licensed for such practices "- explains the statement.

The publication does not indicate what the consequences may be for sites that would sell cryptocurrencies.

Established by the highest decree, the Standing Committee on Consciousness in Action on Unauthorized Securities on the currency market was created by five regulatory bodies of the Middle East, including the Capital Market Office (CMA) and the Saudi Monetary Fund (SAMA) - in practice, the central bank of this country.

In addition to the mandate for unauthorized securities, the commission is also required to notify the relevant agencies of any activities related to the virtual currency in order to limit their access to society.

This warning appeared after the critical remark of the Saudi Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal in December 2017, in which he said that Bitcoin one day imploded. Prince additionally compared the world's largest cryptocurrency to Enron, an American energy company, which fell in early 2000 after revealing huge accounting scams.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the local low at the level of $5835 and rallied towards the important technical resistance at the level of $6597. Nevertheless, the bulls were too weak to break through this level and the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was created at this level. Currently, the price is trading below the weekly pivot at the level of $6,252 and the question remains whether the bulls will try again to break the technical resistance. The nearest support is seen at the level of $6,083.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for August 16, 2018

AUD/USD has recently broken below the 0.7300 support area with a daily close, which is currently pushing higher towards the area for a retest before progressing lower with the trend in the future. As of the recent mixed economic reports, AUD lost momentum against USD in the process which is expected to lead to further downward pressures in the future.

Recently, AUD Wage Price Index report has been published with a slight increase to 0.6% as expected from the previous value of 0.5%. Today, AUD Employment Change report has been published with a significant decrease to -3.9k from the previous figure of 58.2k and Unemployment Rate has decreased to 5.3% which was expected to be unchanged at 5.4%. Despite the mixed economic reports while the bias is more dovish, AUD is currently gaining certain momentum which is expected to be quite short-term in the process.

On the other hand, USD having better Retail Sales reports is expected to extend its gains further in the coming days. Recently, USD Retail Sales report has been published with an increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to decrease to 0.1% and Core Retail Sales also has increased to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.3%. Today, USD Building Permits report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.31M from the previous figure of 1.29M, Housing Starts is expected to increase to 1.27M from the previous figure of 1.17M and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to decrease to 21.9 from the previous figure of 25.7.

As of the current scenario, USD is currently quite optimistic and hawkish with the economic reports to be published whereas AUD is quite indecisive with the mixed economic reports. As the upcoming economic reports publish on the USD, further gain on the USD side is expected which may lead to further gain on the bearish side of the market in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite impulsive with the bullish gains after the indecisive daily candle closed yesterday. Currently, the price is expected to push higher towards the 0.73 area where the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line rests, which is expected to lead to further bearish momentum upon rejection with confluence and result to further downward pressure with target towards the 0.7050 area in the future. As the price remains below the 0.75 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.7050

RESISTANCE: 0.7300, 0.7500

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Aug 16, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, Trade Balance, and German WPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too such as Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Housing Starts, and Building Permits, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1399.

Strong Resistance:1.1392.

Original Resistance: 1.1381.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1370.

Target Inner Area: 1.1342.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1314.

Original Support: 1.1303.

Strong Support: 1.1292.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1285.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Aug 16, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the Trade Balance data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Housing Starts, and Building Permits. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.25.

Resistance. 2: 111.03.

Resistance. 1: 110.82.

Support. 1: 110.55.

Support. 2: 110.34.

Support. 3: 110.12.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 16, 2018

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A break above resistance at 1.7355 is still needed to confirm that red wave ii has completed and red wave iii to above 1.7484 is developing.

Short-term, we see support at 1.7262 and again at 1.7238. The later will ideally be able to protect the downside for the break above 1.7355 towards 1.7484 and above, with the next important targets seen at 1.7924 and 1.8369.

R3: 1.7484

R2: 1.7417

R1: 1.7355

Pivot: 1.7299

S1: 1.7270

S2: 1.7243

S3: 1.7220

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7245 with our stop placed at 1.7215.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 16, 2018

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EUR/JPY made a new low at 124.89 with this new low all requirements to the decline from 131.97 has been fulfilled and wave ii could be complete. If this is the case, then we should see EUR/JPY power above 127.94 and more importantly above 128.45. A break above the later will confirm that wave ii has completed and wave iii is developing towards 137.50 and above.

That said, we need to acknowledge, that an expanded flat correction in wave iv is developing. Under this count EUR/JPY now should move higher in wave c/ of iv/ towards 127.94 before turning lower in wave v/ for a dip to just below 124.89, but not below 124.59. A break below 124.59 will force a recount of the decline from 137.50.

R3: 127.52

R2: 127.06

R1: 126.61

Pivot: 126.39

S1: 125.76

S2: 125.26

S3: 124.89

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 126.25 with our stop placed at 124.50. We will take half profit at 127.40 and then wait for a new EUR-buying opportunity at 125.15.

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Gold destroyed the safe haven

In 2018, investors faced a sharp question: does gold continue to function as a safe-haven asset or has it already lost this status? The precious metal collapsed to a year and a half low amid the escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China and the currency crisis in Turkey. Both events are capable of slowing down the second and third economies of the world, and in such conditions the global appetite for risk tends to decrease, which increases the demand for reliable assets and leads to an increase in prices for them. Gold since the beginning of the year has lost about 9% of its value. What's the matter? Is the status of the safe haven asset in the past?

Investors got rid of ETF products. Stocks of the largest exchange-traded specialized Fund SPDR Gold Shares fell to 776.65 tons, the lowest level since February 2016. From the levels of the April peaks, the indicator lost about 11%. In general, throughout the gold ETF industry, reserves collapsed to the semi-annual low.

Dynamics of gold-oriented ETF reserves

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The share of precious metals in investment portfolios is declining, as it does not withstand competition with securities. Since 2009, the S&P 500 500 has added more than 320%, and asset managers at 735 billion, according to a BofA Merrill Lynch survey, believe that the United States have better opportunities to generate corporate profits compared to other countries over the past 17 years. The yield on a 10-year Treasury bond wanders near the psychologically important 3% mark. The indicator is attractive for carry traders who only in the second quarter with the help of the yen as the funding currency managed to earn on the game on the difference of almost 5%.

What to say to gold? If earlier the fire in the financial markets of China was transferred to the United States and shifted the timing of the federal funds rate increase, now this is not happening. The US economy accelerated to 4.1%, the Fed intends to tighten monetary policy four times in 2018 and three more times in 2019. As a result, the precious metal lost its status of a safe haven asset to the US dollar. It is this currency that receives the main preferences from the aggravation of the geopolitical situation in China and in Turkey.

Dynamics of the US dollar, gold and yen

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The situation for the XAU/USD is aggravated by the unfavorable political climate in the eurozone. Italy is dissatisfied with the increase in the yield of its own bonds, which increases the cost of borrowing and requires the ECB to intervene in the life of the debt market. In fact, this is a hint at the need to prolong the program of quantitative easing, which is a "bearish" factor for the EUR/USD. The share of the euro in the USD index is 57%, so the rapid decline of the single European currency pulls gold to the bottom no slower than the flight of investors from ETF.

Technically, futures for precious metals reached targets of 113% and 261.8% for the patterns "Double top" and AB=CD, which increases the risk of a rebound. If, on the contrary, the convergence zone of $1180-1185 per ounce will be passed by "bears" without much effort, the risks of continuing the peak in the direction of $1150 will increase.

Gold, daily chart

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Trading plan for the European session on August 15 GBP/USD

To open long positions for GBP/USD, it is required:

Buyers of the pound can only hope for the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2684, which will be the first signal for a possible upward correction, the main purpose of which is to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.27, where one can expect a return to the area of a large level of 1.2789. In the event of a further decline in the pound, you can return to buying on a rebound from 1.2625.

To open short positions for GBP/USD, it is required:

The formation of a false breakout on the resistance at 1.2737, or a repeated test of support at 1.2684, will be another signal to selling the pound with the release of new weekly lows at 1.2625 and 1.2569, where I recommend to profit taking. If the pound rises above 1.2737 in the first half of the day, it is best to look for short positions after the test of resistance at 1.2789.

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Indicator description

  • Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR / USD: pastor "under lock and key", euro flies down

The specter of a large-scale economic crisis still frightens traders, many of whom use the US dollar as the currency of the "quiet harbor." The American currency now acts as a safe haven, where investors prefer to wait out the troubled times of uncertainty. Unfortunately, rumors about the beginning of a constructive dialogue between the US and Turkey have remained to be unconfirmed rumors with the events of the past day indicating that the political and trade conflict between the countries has not yet reached its apogee.So today, it became known that the court of Turkish Izmir refused to release the American pastor Andrew Brunson from house arrest. The judge rejected the relevant request for the protection of the American citizen and put an end to this issue, at least in the context of the immediate prospects. Although yesterday, there was information in the market that Turkey had made a political decision to release the pastor, thus showing readiness for compromise negotiations with the Americans.However, by the end of yesterday, it became clear that such conversations had no basis. First, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced yesterday that his country would boycott electronic goods from the US, and today, the Turkish authorities sharply increased duties on American goods. In particular, duties on alcohol increased by 140%, tobacco products by 60%, cars up to 120%, cosmetics to 60%, rice by 50%, and fruits by 20%. And this is far from an exhaustive list of American goods. Thus, Turkey responded to the decision of Donald Trump to double the duty on Turkish steel and aluminum.

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Many experts doubt that the pastor's case is a key stumbling block. His detention soon became the last straw for the White House. The true reasons for the deterioration of relations between countries, according to political scientists, lie in the geopolitical plane: the Kurdish issue, Turkey's refusal to support US sanctions against Iran, the criticism of Israel, and the open support for Hamas. These puzzle pieces formed into a single picture, when the Turkish court refused to release the American pastor, but only transferred him to house arrest. All this suggests that the political conflict between the US and Turkey has a deeper reason, and Pastor Brunson acts as a kind of marker. His release would serve as a signal for further dialogue on many other, much more complex, political issues.

However, reality tells us that the situation will continue to heat up to a certain limit. Here, it should be noted that neither the States, nor Europe, nor (even more so) Erdogan is not interested in the collapse of the Turkish economy. The domino effect will provoke the crisis not only in the euro area, but also affect the markets around the world. It is worth noting that the ECB has already voiced its concern about the lack of hedging of debt obligations of Turkish companies to European banks. In addition, a new wave of illegal migrants will pour into the European Union in the case of Turkey's bankruptcy. According to various estimates, Turkey accepts about four million Syrian refugees on its territory.

As stated above, the situation is most likely to be pumped to a certain limit. Turkey is not the first to be in the forefront of foreign policy struggle. Note that there is at least a story about the downed Su-27, followed by a political conflict between Ankara and Moscow. It is also possible to recall the rather protracted conflict between Turkey and Germany, which was accompanied by loud statements, scandals and even political threats. However, the parties later found a common denominator, and the conflicts gradually "came to naught." On one hand, this shows that Erdogan is capable of compromises, despite the previous tough rhetoric. On the other hand, the logic of precedents is not applicable to geopolitics, especially when it comes to opposing leaders such as Recep Erdogan and Donald Trump.

Thus, traders are still preparing for the situation to worsen based on the fact that the American pastor is still under house arrest in Turkey. This means that now the "ball is on the side of the US" - the White House will continue to exert pressure on the Turkish economy through various levers of influence.

The European currency, in its turn, will be fully focused on the dynamics of the development of this conflict. And if the US-China conflict has a negative impact on the European economy only indirectly, then the economic collapse of Turkey is already capable of directly hitting the banking sector of the EU.

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That's why almost all the "older" timeframes continue to signal a further decline in the EUR/USD pair. On the weekly chart, the pair is on the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator and under the cloud Kumo while the indicator Ichimoku Kinko Hyo formed a bearish signal "Line Parade". The resistance level is 1.1525. This is the lower boundary of the cloud Kumo (on W1), which coincides with the line Tenkan-sen. However, the support level is the price of 1.1250. This is the bottom line of Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart. In other words, the 1.1250 mark is still the main southern target of the downward movement.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for August 15. The construction of the impulse wave 3 continues

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on Tuesday, the currency pair EUR / USD lost another 65 percentage points. Thus, wave 3, 5, continues its construction and can turn out to be very long. If that assumption is true, then the entire wave 5 can also take a very complex and extended form. The closest target is the Fibonacci level of 200.0%. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 200.0% mark may lead to a small withdrawal of quotations from the minimum reached while maintaining a high probability of execution of the working variant.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1272 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

1.1125 - 261.8% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1834 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

1.1957 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build a bearish set of waves. Thus, I recommend that the pair stays in sales with targets located near the calculated marks of 1.1272 and 1.1125, which corresponds to 200.0% and 261.8% of Fibonacci. We do not have to return to the purchases of the bases right now, since wave 3, 5, does not look complete, and the entire descending section of the trend can turn out to be very long.

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GBP / USD. August 15. The trading system "Regression channels". All attention to inflation in the UK

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: direction - down.

Moving average (20, smoothed) - down.

CCI: -112.8513

The currency pair GBP / USD on August 14 did not manage to even properly correct. Just a few small purple bars and a descending movement resumed. Thus, risk currencies, in particular, the European ones, continue to enjoy minimal demand in the foreign exchange market. And the reasons for this remain the same, especially in the UK, where market participants do not observe any positive changes. Today in the United Kingdom will be published inflation for July. It is expected that the consumer price index will accelerate to 2.5%. How will traders react to this report? Most likely, in any way. Inflation in the current environment is extremely low for the UK economy. The Bank of England raised the stake at the last meeting, and many experts believe that such a decision was hasty. That first it was necessary to deal with all internal problems, in particular with Brexit, and only then to tighten monetary policy. Thus, even the acceleration of inflation is unlikely to support the pound sterling. American reports on retail sales and industrial production are also unlikely to significantly affect the mood of investors. Thus, the downward movement is likely to continue until traders begin to fix the positions trivially, believing that even lower the pair will not go away. Determine this point can be on technical indicators.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2695

S2 - 1,2573

S3 - 1.2451

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.2817

R2 = 1.2939

R3 = 1.3062

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD resumed its fall. Thus, now it is recommended to stay in short positions or to increase them with the goal of 1,2573. The rebound of the price from the level of 1.2695 can provoke a correction loop, which can confirm the turn of Heikin Ashi upward.

Buy-positions can be considered only after fixing the price above the moving average line with the target of 1.2939. In this case, it can be assumed that the bears at the current stage decided to fix the profit and for a while give the initiative to the bulls.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The junior channel is linear-violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

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EUR / USD. August 15. The trading system "Regression channels". Weak response from Erdogan and Trump

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: direction - down.

Moving average (20, smoothed) - down.

СCI: -100.4550

The currency pair EUR / USD resumed the downward movement on August 14 after a minimal upward correction. Thus, the European currency is still in a downward trend. In the meantime, Turkish President Erdogan called on the population to boycott the purchase of American-made goods and move to settlements in lira, instead of the dollar. Honestly, the response of the leader of Turkey to Trump duties is still very weak. It should be understood that the call for a boycott is not specific sanctions or bans that can give concrete results. Given the popularity of Apple's technology, a very small number of Turkish citizens will really refuse to buy the goods of this brand. Thus, we state the fact: so far there has been no response to the US sanctions from Erdogan. This means that the Turkish lira can continue its decline against the US dollar, and together with the lira and the euro. Today in the US will be published reports on changes in the volume of industrial production and retail sales. However, as we have already said, traders now pay a very indirect attention to any macroeconomic reports. Thus, both US reports should fail today, so that traders would at least fix profit on dollar positions. Otherwise, the downward movement is likely to continue.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.153

R2 = 1.1414

R3 = 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD resumed its downward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in shorts or open new ones with the targets of 1.1292 and 1.1230. Turning indicator Heikin Ashi up, signal to manually close orders for sale.

Long positions are recommended to be considered only after fixing the price above the moving average line with the target of 1.1536. In this case, the initiative on the instrument, at least for a while, will pass into the hands of bulls.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

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Trading plan for the European session on August 15 EUR/USD

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

The longest positions in the euro are best returned after the formation of a false breakdown at the intermediate support level 1.1313, which will lead to an upward correction to the 1.1371 resistance area. A consolidation above this level will allow to update the weekly maximum in the 1.1431 area. In the event of a further decline in the euro, long positions can be found in the support areas of 1.1251 and 1.1215.

To open short positions for EUR / USD, you need:

The formation of a false breakout at resistance 1.1371 or a return to support level 1.1313, will be another signal for opening short positions in the European currency with the target of breaking the weekly minimum and renewing refreshed areas 1.1251 and 1.1215, where it is recommended to fix profits. In case of an increased in EUR/USD pair above 1.1371 in the morning, you can sell for a rebound from 1.1431.

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Indicators Description:

  • MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Brent unravels the riddles of Riyadh

Saudi Arabia's report on the reduction in oil production in July by 20 thousand b / s stirred the market of black gold. According to secondary sources, the indicator even fell by 53 thousand b / s, and investors are actively discussing what is happening? Why is the OPEC leader, one of the first responders to Donald Trump's calls to increase production to contain price increases, now gives a backup? Riyadh responds simply, oil refineries are no longer needed, but when did their interests become the cornerstone of the nationwide strategy?

In the second half of the summer, the oil market fell into a logical consolidation, balancing the long-term "bullish" driver in the form of a reduction in Iranian exports by about 1 million b / s and short-term "bearish" factors. OPEC and Russia had to close the hole. Both the cartel and Moscow increased production in July by 41 thousand and 20 thousand b / s, respectively, but for whatever reasons, Saudi Arabia turned out to be a problem, remains a mystery. Some investors argue that Riyadh does not want to allow a sharp decline in prices. He is satisfied with a range of $ 70-80 per barrel in the North Sea grade. Others are sure that the Saudis do not want to get rid of Iran, which actively resisted the idea of increasing production at the last OPEC summit. Still, others suggest that official statistics were understated in order to prevent a sharp collapse of Brent and WTI.

Dynamics of Brent and oil production by Saudi Arabia

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In my opinion, Riyadh will not be able to play this game for a long time, and in the near future, the markets will return to the idea of their own balance. At the same time, the cartel's reduction in forecasts of growth in demand for its own oil in 2018 to +1.64 million b / s and in 2019 to +1.43 million b / s speaks of OPEC's concern about the prospect of slowing global GDP. Protectionism and trade wars already affect the economies of China, the eurozone, and developing countries, if the US also faces the effect of fading the effect of the fiscal stimulus, the world GDP will not get better.

There are "bulls" for Brent and WTI and another cause for concern. According to OPEC studies, oil production outside the cartel will increase by 2.13 million b / d next year, which is by 30 thousand b / s more than in the July forecast. The main increase will come from the States. Indeed, the US Energy Information Administration expects that the production of black gold from 7 major shale sources will increase by 93 thousand b / s in September and reach the level of 7.52 million b / s. Let me remind you that at current price levels, US companies have the opportunity to actively increase production, hedging the risks through futures contracts.

Technically, Brent "bears" for the second time in the last couple of weeks have tried to test the important support at $ 71.35-71.9 per barrel. Both times ended in a fiasco, which allows talking about the weakness of the sellers and inspires the bulls to continue the attack towards the lower boundary of the rising long-term trading channel.

Brent, the daily chart

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of August 15

Dear colleagues.

For the EUR / USD pair, we have expanded the potential for the downward movement towards the level of 1.1245. For the GBP / USD pair, we follow the development of the local downward cycle from August 7. For the of USD / CHF pair, we follow the formation of the upward structure of August 9. The development of this level is expected after the breakdown of 0.9972. The level of 0.9915 is the key support. For the USD / JPY pair, we follow the development of the upward cycle from August 13. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 111.50. For the EUR / JPY pair, the price is in correction and forms the potential for the top of August 13. For the GBP / JPY pair, the price is in correction and forms the potential for the top of August 13.

Forecast for August 15:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1539, 1.1471, 1.1433, 1.1403, 1.1360, 1.1335, 1.1282 and 1.1245. Here, we expanded the potential for the downward movement towards the level of 1.1245. Upon the reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the area of 1.1282 - 1.1245. The continuation of the movement downwards is possible after the passage at the price of the noise range at 1.1360 - 1.1335. In this case, the target is 1.1282.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.1403 - 1.1433. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1471. This level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will lead to the development of an upward movement. In this case, the target is 1.1539.

The main trend is the local downward structure of August 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1403 Take profit: 1.1431

Buy 1.1435 Take profit: 1.1470

Sell: 1.1333 Take profit: 1.1284

Sell: 1.1280 Take profit: 1.1247

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For the GBP / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 1.2907, 1.2825, 1.2763, 1.2727, 1.2684, 1.2655, 1.2601 and 1.2561. Here, we continue to follow the local downward cycle from August 7. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after passing the price of the noise range at 1.2684 - 1.2655. In this case, the target is 1.2601. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 1.2561. After reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the area of 1.2601 - 1.2561.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.2727-1.2763. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2825. This level is the key support for the bottom. Passing by the price will lead to the formation of the initial conditions for the top. In this case, the potential target is 1.2907 .

The main trend is the local downward structure of August 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2727 Take profit: 1.2760

Buy: 1.2765 Take profit: 1.2822

Sell: 1.2655 Take profit: 1.2604

Sell: 1.2658 Take profit: 1.2562

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For the USD / CHF pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.0030, 1.0001, 0.9991, 0.9972, 0.9956, 0.9927, 0.9915, 0.9897 and 0.9878. Here, we continue to follow the formation of the upward structure of August 9. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9956. In this case, the target is 0.9972. The breakdown of this level, in turn, should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement towards the level of 0.9991. In the area of 0.9991 - 1.0001 is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top is level 1.0030. From this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.9927 - 0.9917. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of a downward structure. Here, the target is 0.9897. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 0.9878.

The main trend is the formation of the upward structure of August 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9956 Take profit: 0.9970

Buy: 0.9974 Take profit: 0.9990

Sell: 0.9925 Take profit: 0.9915

Sell: 0.9913 Take profit: 0.9898

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For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 112.19, 111.99, 111.70, 111.49, 111.20, 111.02 and 110.72. Here, we follow the development of the upward cycle of August 13. Short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 111.49 - 111.70. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 111.99. The potential value for the top is the level 112.19. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation as well as a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 111.20 - 111.02. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 110.72. This level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.50 Take profit: 111.68

Buy: 111.72 Take profit: 111.95

Sell: 111.20 Take profit: 111.03

Sell: 111.00 Take profit: 110.74

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For the CAD / USD pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3121, 1.3095, 1.3077, 1.3047, 1.3030, 1.2995 and 1.2968. Here, we follow the formation of the downward structure of August 13. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after passing the price of the noise range at 1.3047 - 1.3030. In this case, the target is 1.2995. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 1.2968. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.3077 - 1.3095. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3121. This level is the key support for the bottom. Passing by the price will lead to the development of the upward structure. Here, the potential target is 1.3167.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure from August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3077 Take profit: 1.3093

Buy: 1.3097 Take profit: 1.3120

Sell: 1.3030 Take profit: 1.2997

Sell: 1.2992 Take profit: 1.2970

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For the AUD / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.7373, 0.7338, 0.7310, 0.7260, 0.7236, 0.7173, 0.7132 and 0.7080. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of August 9. At the moment, we expect the movement towards 0.7173. In the area of 0.7173 - 0.7132 is short-term downward movement as well as the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the downward movement is, for the time being, the level of 0.7080. After reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 0.7310 - 0.7338. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7373. This level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of August 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7310 Take profit: 0.7336

Buy: 0.7339 Take profit: 0.7370

Sell: 0.7236 Take profit: 0.7175

Sell: 0.7170Take profit: 0.7134

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For the EUR / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 128.04, 127.35, 126.69, 126.28, 125.48 and 124.82. Here, the price is in correction and forms a small potential for the top of August 13. A breakdown at the level of 125.48 will lead to a short-term downward movement. In this case, the potential target is 124.82. From this level, there is a high probability of a turn up. The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 126.28 - 126.69. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the target is 127.35. This level is the key support for the downward structure from August 1. Passing by it will lead to the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the target is 128.04.

The main trend is the formation of the potential for the top of August 13 in the correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 126.28 Take profit: 126.67

Buy: 126.71 Take profit: 127.33

Sell: 125.46 Take profit: 124.87

Sell: Take profit:

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For the GBP / JPY pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 143.33, 142.81, 141.98, 141.49, 140.52 and 139.78. Here, the price is in correction and forms a small potential for the top of August 13. Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 140.52 - 139.78. From the level of 139.78, we expect a key upward turn. The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 141.49 - 141.98. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 142.81. The range of 142.81 - 143.33 is the key support for the downward cycle. Before reaching it, we expect the initial conditions for the top to be formalized.

The main trend is the formation of the potential for the top of August 13 in the correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 141.50 Take profit: 141.95

Buy: 142.00 Take profit: 142.80

Sell: 140.50 Take profit: 139.85

Sell: Take profit:

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 15, 2018

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Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed for a bearish breakout of the depicted consolidation range (0.7170 and 0.7350).

Quick bearish decline took place towards 0.6700-0.6800 where narrow ranged consolidation range was established.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 temporarily.

However, lack of bullish momentum made the bulls fail to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6700.

On August 9, bearish breakout below the depicted consolidation range (0.6700-0.6840) was executed. This allowed the current bearish decline to occur towards 0.6600-0.6570.

The NZD/USD pair outlook turned to be bearish. Bearish targets are projected towards the price levels of 0.6520 and 0.6480.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for bullish pullback towards 0.6700-0.6720 for a low-risk SELL entry.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 15, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range (1.2200).

The price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery towards 1.1830. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1800.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair is testing the price zone of 1.1450-1.1370 (demand zone) where the depicted trend lines are located on the depicted weekly chart.

As anticipated, bearish closure below 1.1400 was achieved. This allowed a quick decline towards 1.1300.

For further bearish decline to occur, the pair needs obvious bearish breakdown below 1.1375. Initial bearish targets would be located around 1.1275 then 1.1120 if enough bearish pressure is applied.

Hence, the EUR/USD short-term outlook remains bearish towards the mentioned levels unless bullish breakout above 1.1420 is achieved. This would pause the ongoing bearish momentum allowing bullish pullback to take place.

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The Turkish crisis: a temporary halt or return to normal?

The Turkish crisis: a temporary halt or return to normal?

On Tuesday, the fall of the Turkish lira has stopped and there has been some recovery. The media write about some Turkish companies particularly, Vakifbank TAS and Turkcell AS. They bought their significantly cheaper bonds from the market, although this is a small amount of $10-15 million.

The head of Turkey, Erdogan, in response to unfriendly US actions where Trump introduced duties against Turkish steel and aluminum, called for a boycott of electronics produced in the US. it is primarily about Apple products - iPhone. Erdogan called for switching to Samsung products or Turkish Vestel.

Now, it is difficult to say whether Turkey will manage to avoid a new wave of sales of the lira but the first stop is a positive signal.

This may be a signal for the recovery of the euro after a strong fall. It is the decline in lira and risks for several banks in the euro area that have loans to Turkish borrowers in the portfolio, led to a fall of the euro against the dollar below 1.1500.

On Tuesday evening, the EUR/USD exchange rate is trading at about 1.1380 and, perhaps, will make a breakthrough attempt at 1.1360.

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Bitcoin analysis for August 15, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time frame, I found that price rejected from the pivot resistance cluster (weekly pivot and daily R2) at the price of $6.445. I also found broken upward channel and hidden bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $6.045 and at the price of $5.840.

Support/Resistance

$6.455 – Intraday resistance

$6.240– Intraday support

$6.045 – Objective target 1

$5.840 – Objective target 2

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